Author Topic: Storms across SE Aust (incl Melbourne hailstorm & Shepparton storm) 4 - 10 March 2010  (Read 33965 times)

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Offline John Allen

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Right its time we had a thread on this...There is a big system brewing atm, Models have been speculating on it for days...and the instability is predicted to start developing tomorrow. Im going to wait until the morning runs to have a good look at this one, but it seems like the instability will start in NW Victoria, with a trough reaching SE QLD next week. The models are very unstable though....GFS went from amazing instability to nothing to quite reasonable in the course of three runs...we wait to see if there is sufficient warmth to allow decent storms to develop in Victoria.
Explosive events coming to a weather system near you.

Offline Michael Thomas

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Certainly something to keep an eye on. I can easily see this setup resulting in widespread, unorganised storms and rain. On the otherhand I also think that a significant severe storm outbreak is possible. According to the latest 0Z GFS run, both Saturday and Sunday look very interesting. Saturday has NE'ly winds up to 700 hPa with a strong 40-50 knot NNW'ly mid-level jet. Can't recall a storm setup with such a shear profile. Sunday has western Vic/eastern SA sitting on the nose of a strong 100 knot upper-level jet with high CAPE present.

Getting pretty close to the event now so hopefully GFS has a handle on things. On the face of things though it sounds good. A lot of moisture sitting in central NSW from that monsoonal low ahead of a very strong upper level trough. Could be a big day down there if everything goes right.

Michael

Offline nmoir

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GFS seems a bit jumpy for sunday , looks like lots of high cloud about but i think i am going to move into NSW VIC border region early tomorrow morning for sat action and then see what happens for the day after and take it as it comes.
Nick Moir
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Offline Peter J

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Hi all

Long time away

Just to let some of you know we here are getting battered by a very dangerous storm here in the outer east:

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - MELBOURNE AREA

for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in the Inner, South East, Eastern, Northern, Outer East and parts of the Western, Mornington Peninsula, Port Phillip and Western Port Local Warning Areas.
Issued at 3:34 pm Saturday, 6 March 2010.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 3:35 pm, very dangerous thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Dandenong, Glen Waverley, Pakenham and Ringwood. These thunderstorms are moving towards the southeast. Very dangerous thunderstorms are forecast to affect South Pakenham, the area east of Mt Dandenong, the area east of Pakenham and the area northeast of Pakenham by 4:05 pm.
Other severe thunderstorms were located near Hurstbridge, the area north of Mt Macedon, the area northeast of Gisborne and the area west of Kilmore. They are forecast to affect Lilydale, Yarra Glen, the area east of Sunbury and the area west of Whittlesea by 4:05 pm and Craigieburn, Greensborough, Preston and Whittlesea by 4:35 pm.
Damaging winds, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones are likely.
Reports of hail between 2cm and 5cm have reported from these thunderstorms in several suburbs including North Melbourne, Ascot Vale, Heathmont and Melton. Hail as big as 10cm has recently been reported in Ferntree Gully.
Wind gusts to around 100 km/hr have been recorded at Melbourne Airport.
Significant rainfall totals have been recorded in 15 to 30 minutes periods, including;
46mm at Maribyrnong
43mm at Rockbank,
40mm at Melton
33mm at Deer Park
32mm at Keilor
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* secure any loose objects in the vicinity of your home.
* keep away from creeks and drains.
* do not drive vehicles through flooded areas.
* stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* if you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* listen to the radio for storm updates
* switch off your computer and electrical appliances
The next warning is due to be issued by 4:35 pm.
A more general severe thunderstorm warning is also current for the Northern Country, North Central, Central and parts of the Mallee, Wimmera, West and South Gippsland and Western districts.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

I hope the reports are not true about Ferntree Gully (only 15 mins south of here), coz that would be baseball sized hail - and that size hail has not been recorded here in 27 years!!!

Its rumbling and teeming with rain at the moment - did see a short lived meso with the gust front come through about 3.20pm - will put some pics up later once I work out the link cable..

Peter J
(bunkered in my bedroom at the moment)
PJJ

Offline TroyVR

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I heard it was quite nasty.

From a friend:

Quote
I forsaw this and put blankets over my cars, and pushed em under tree's, glad I did, lots of older model cars have windows smashed in on my street. A holden ute looks like it got a fair few dents on it, b***h weather.

And a video of serious flooding on Elizabeth St

http://img94.yfrog.com/i/mnc.mp4/

more:

Melbourne 2012???
« Last Edit: 07 March 2010, 12:36:11 PM by TroyVR »

Offline Colin Maitland

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Very good call on this set up John, Michael and Nick. News reports indicate that Melbourne copped an absolute battering. Big Pete and Troy have posted another thread indicating this also. Troy has posted good footage of the flash flooding in the City.

ABC reports:
Severe thunderstorms have hit Melbourne as parts of Victoria are lashed by strong winds and large hail stones.

Hailstones the size of golf balls have hit the suburb of Melton, in Melbourne's west, as a line of storms moved through western Victoria.

Winds of more 100 kilometres an hour have been recorded at Melbourne Airport while nearly 40 millimetres of rain fell at Rockbank, west of Melbourne.

Streets across Melbourne's CBD have been flooded and police are warning people not to drive through the flooded areas after some motorists became trapped.


Looking forward to the chase reports and photos.

Really appreciated the other chases, effort and prognosis that John and Brad have undertaken in the other threads.

photo courtesy of ABC of the mounting hail
Col  

Offline Michael Bath

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Some great clips of the Melbourne Hailstorm available already. Try this search

Just as well the Melb radar is back online !!

128km Radar Loop for Melbourne, 23:00 05/03/2010 to 10:00 06/03/2010 UTC
Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
Australian Severe Weather:   http://australiasevereweather.com/
Lightning Photography:   http://www.lightningphotography.com/
Early Warning Network: http://www.ewn.com.au
Contact: Michael Bath

Offline Richary

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I saw the warnings and was watching the radar as it went through. Certainly looked to be very nasty. I also checked out some of the Vicroads webcams when it hit and on one all the cars were pulled over on the side of the freeway.

At the start of the footy tonight on One they showed earlier shots from Telstra Stadium of water pouring down inside the buildings. There was also substantial damage to Spencer Street station, and the ABC TV news reporter was standing inside their studios needing an umbrella.

Lots of reader contributed pics at the heraldsun website also.

Offline TroyVR

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The Herald Sun website has an excellant gallery of the pictures including some pre storm cloud formations for those who are interested, the pictures are quite impressive.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/photo-gallery/gallery-e6frf94x-1225837692013?page=1

Offline Michael Bath

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Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
Australian Severe Weather:   http://australiasevereweather.com/
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Offline scottme

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Wow, what a crazy storm. We might get our turn tonight in Sydney. Seems like we have to have thunder and lightning when Sydney and Melbourne play in the A-League.

I wouldn't have expected such a severe storm from the sounding - just goes to show that they can be deceptive! Was most of the severity due to speed shear?

Offline Michael Bath

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Part of it was that, especially with 50 knots at 500 hPa and the jet above. The moisture profile (moist up to about 500 hPa) and great lapse rates are ideal for large hail events. Compare the Melb sounding above with this sounding that saw Lismore in NE NSW demolished by a similar HP Supercell

http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/soundings/2007100904brisbane.png

Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
Australian Severe Weather:   http://australiasevereweather.com/
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Offline Jane Gough

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Here's a few pics from yesterday. I think we escaped very lightly by reading /seeing what other people have been through.

This was taken under our alfresco area (decking under construction...) that is 4m under the roof line of the house. Hailstones were hitting the back door I was standing behind:

 

Hail piling up on the car:

 

During the height of the storm and storm water drains failing to cope. Adjusted contrast:

 

Soooo close to coming in the garage, but luckily not. We are unable to use our front door as the porch is completely underwater (landscaping comes shortly...):

 

Larger hailstones in the alfresco. Apologies for fuzzyness:

 

The one and only stone I collected, as it fell undercover and close to the door. The others melted fairly quickly, this one is still in the freezer:

 

Damaged roof tile, now replaced:

 

Measured it this morning, 3.5cm, and probably wasn't the largest, but the most convenient to collect!

 
Weather and Photography
www.stormygirl.net

Offline Michael Thomas

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Well Victoria does it again. More supercell thunderstorms. Anyway, I think the storm that hit Melbourne is quite worthy of discussion. Just having a look at the observations around Melbourne reveals a few interesting things. First off, Melbourne Ap was at best 27/15 before the storm. Replotting the Melbourne sounding with this gives only 800 j/kg surface-based CAPE. Hardy anything amazing. Further east of Melbourne things looked better with 28/17 and 30/18 for Viewbank and Coldstream, respectively. This would have resulted in CAPE to 2200j/kg. My biggest question is why did such a powerful supercell move through Melbourne when surface-based CAPE was <1000 j/kg? Was there greater 'elevated' instability? That is unstable parcels of air originating from above the surface. Another interesting thing to note is that SE'ly winds were present along the coastline while NE'ly winds were present to the north. I suspect the boundary that resulted was extremely important for these storms. It appears to me that the 'Melbourne' supercell rapidly intensified (or made the transition to a supercell) upon hitting this boundary.

I am also interested in the supercell that formed near Noojee. Looked equally impressive as the 'Melbourne' supercell on radar.

Michael

Offline Brad Hannon

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While on the road from our NSW raid I will try to answer.

I think its important to look earlier in the play Michael. The first cell we followed last 4 hours from NW of Bendigo to Macedon....this died before another SC formed to its west.....this storm formed a Bow Echo with its own generation of energy along the outflow line...the SCs developed within this line inside the book-end vortices, one only need look at the TVS and couplets that appeared on this storm to Melbourne NW near Ballan. The wshear has a big role to play on this type of storm, particularly in the lowest 3km...and high levels of surface CAPE....I tend to believe a surface moistening occured to really invigorate that sounding.....dont forget Melbourne was clear skied and to the NW was pre-moistened from the previous day.

Anyway, Im a bit to tired to fully explain what I think happened dynamically (the SC behind did the same thing will a similar result in hooks and TVS). Will try again in the morning.

We chase a SC west of Deniliquin today that became the bow that smashed SE and did golfball hail,flooded and trees snapped and uprooted in Shepparton, and produced swathes of damage we will describe tomorrow. At least as impressive as Melbourne yesterday in terms of destruction.





hmmm June 2nd......