Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: John Allen on 04 March 2010, 03:59:40 PM
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Right its time we had a thread on this...There is a big system brewing atm, Models have been speculating on it for days...and the instability is predicted to start developing tomorrow. Im going to wait until the morning runs to have a good look at this one, but it seems like the instability will start in NW Victoria, with a trough reaching SE QLD next week. The models are very unstable though....GFS went from amazing instability to nothing to quite reasonable in the course of three runs...we wait to see if there is sufficient warmth to allow decent storms to develop in Victoria.
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Certainly something to keep an eye on. I can easily see this setup resulting in widespread, unorganised storms and rain. On the otherhand I also think that a significant severe storm outbreak is possible. According to the latest 0Z GFS run, both Saturday and Sunday look very interesting. Saturday has NE'ly winds up to 700 hPa with a strong 40-50 knot NNW'ly mid-level jet. Can't recall a storm setup with such a shear profile. Sunday has western Vic/eastern SA sitting on the nose of a strong 100 knot upper-level jet with high CAPE present.
Getting pretty close to the event now so hopefully GFS has a handle on things. On the face of things though it sounds good. A lot of moisture sitting in central NSW from that monsoonal low ahead of a very strong upper level trough. Could be a big day down there if everything goes right.
Michael
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GFS seems a bit jumpy for sunday , looks like lots of high cloud about but i think i am going to move into NSW VIC border region early tomorrow morning for sat action and then see what happens for the day after and take it as it comes.
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Hi all
Long time away
Just to let some of you know we here are getting battered by a very dangerous storm here in the outer east:
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - MELBOURNE AREA
for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in the Inner, South East, Eastern, Northern, Outer East and parts of the Western, Mornington Peninsula, Port Phillip and Western Port Local Warning Areas.
Issued at 3:34 pm Saturday, 6 March 2010.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 3:35 pm, very dangerous thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Dandenong, Glen Waverley, Pakenham and Ringwood. These thunderstorms are moving towards the southeast. Very dangerous thunderstorms are forecast to affect South Pakenham, the area east of Mt Dandenong, the area east of Pakenham and the area northeast of Pakenham by 4:05 pm.
Other severe thunderstorms were located near Hurstbridge, the area north of Mt Macedon, the area northeast of Gisborne and the area west of Kilmore. They are forecast to affect Lilydale, Yarra Glen, the area east of Sunbury and the area west of Whittlesea by 4:05 pm and Craigieburn, Greensborough, Preston and Whittlesea by 4:35 pm.
Damaging winds, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones are likely.
Reports of hail between 2cm and 5cm have reported from these thunderstorms in several suburbs including North Melbourne, Ascot Vale, Heathmont and Melton. Hail as big as 10cm has recently been reported in Ferntree Gully.
Wind gusts to around 100 km/hr have been recorded at Melbourne Airport.
Significant rainfall totals have been recorded in 15 to 30 minutes periods, including;
46mm at Maribyrnong
43mm at Rockbank,
40mm at Melton
33mm at Deer Park
32mm at Keilor
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* secure any loose objects in the vicinity of your home.
* keep away from creeks and drains.
* do not drive vehicles through flooded areas.
* stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* if you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* listen to the radio for storm updates
* switch off your computer and electrical appliances
The next warning is due to be issued by 4:35 pm.
A more general severe thunderstorm warning is also current for the Northern Country, North Central, Central and parts of the Mallee, Wimmera, West and South Gippsland and Western districts.
Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au (http://www.bom.gov.au) or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.
I hope the reports are not true about Ferntree Gully (only 15 mins south of here), coz that would be baseball sized hail - and that size hail has not been recorded here in 27 years!!!
Its rumbling and teeming with rain at the moment - did see a short lived meso with the gust front come through about 3.20pm - will put some pics up later once I work out the link cable..
Peter J
(bunkered in my bedroom at the moment)
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I heard it was quite nasty.
From a friend:
I forsaw this and put blankets over my cars, and pushed em under tree's, glad I did, lots of older model cars have windows smashed in on my street. A holden ute looks like it got a fair few dents on it, b***h weather.
And a video of serious flooding on Elizabeth St
http://img94.yfrog.com/i/mnc.mp4/ (http://img94.yfrog.com/i/mnc.mp4/)
more:
Melbourne 2012??? (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0BwVoKNFGM#normal)
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Very good call on this set up John, Michael and Nick. News reports indicate that Melbourne copped an absolute battering. Big Pete and Troy have posted another thread indicating this also. Troy has posted good footage of the flash flooding in the City.
ABC reports:
Severe thunderstorms have hit Melbourne as parts of Victoria are lashed by strong winds and large hail stones.
Hailstones the size of golf balls have hit the suburb of Melton, in Melbourne's west, as a line of storms moved through western Victoria.
Winds of more 100 kilometres an hour have been recorded at Melbourne Airport while nearly 40 millimetres of rain fell at Rockbank, west of Melbourne.
Streets across Melbourne's CBD have been flooded and police are warning people not to drive through the flooded areas after some motorists became trapped.
Looking forward to the chase reports and photos.
Really appreciated the other chases, effort and prognosis that John and Brad have undertaken in the other threads.
photo courtesy of ABC of the mounting hail
Col
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Some great clips of the Melbourne Hailstorm available already. Try this search (http://www.youtube.com/results?search_type=videos&search_query=melbourne+hail&search_sort=video_date_uploaded&suggested_categories=19%2C22%2C25%2C17&uni=3)
Just as well the Melb radar is back online !!
128km Radar Loop for Melbourne, 23:00 05/03/2010 to 10:00 06/03/2010 UTC
(http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-thumb/IDR023/2010-03-05-23/2010-03-06-10/300.s.png) (http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR023-melbourne/2010-03-05-23/2010-03-06-10)
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I saw the warnings and was watching the radar as it went through. Certainly looked to be very nasty. I also checked out some of the Vicroads webcams when it hit and on one all the cars were pulled over on the side of the freeway.
At the start of the footy tonight on One they showed earlier shots from Telstra Stadium of water pouring down inside the buildings. There was also substantial damage to Spencer Street station, and the ABC TV news reporter was standing inside their studios needing an umbrella.
Lots of reader contributed pics at the heraldsun website also.
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The Herald Sun website has an excellant gallery of the pictures including some pre storm cloud formations for those who are interested, the pictures are quite impressive.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/photo-gallery/gallery-e6frf94x-1225837692013?page=1 (http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/photo-gallery/gallery-e6frf94x-1225837692013?page=1)
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Melbourne Hail Storm.MOV (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bb5YTNduSvk#normal)
Melbourne storm 06/03/2010 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7ho0hvnj-U#lq-lq2-vhq)
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Wow, what a crazy storm. We might get our turn tonight in Sydney. Seems like we have to have thunder and lightning when Sydney and Melbourne play in the A-League.
I wouldn't have expected such a severe storm from the sounding - just goes to show that they can be deceptive! Was most of the severity due to speed shear?
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Part of it was that, especially with 50 knots at 500 hPa and the jet above. The moisture profile (moist up to about 500 hPa) and great lapse rates are ideal for large hail events. Compare the Melb sounding above with this sounding that saw Lismore in NE NSW demolished by a similar HP Supercell
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/soundings/2007100904brisbane.png (http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2007/soundings/2007100904brisbane.png)
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Here's a few pics from yesterday. I think we escaped very lightly by reading /seeing what other people have been through.
This was taken under our alfresco area (decking under construction...) that is 4m under the roof line of the house. Hailstones were hitting the back door I was standing behind:
(http://www.stormygirl.net/images1/storm1060310.jpg)
Hail piling up on the car:
(http://www.stormygirl.net/images1/storm2060310.jpg)
During the height of the storm and storm water drains failing to cope. Adjusted contrast:
(http://www.stormygirl.net/images1/storm3060310.jpg)
Soooo close to coming in the garage, but luckily not. We are unable to use our front door as the porch is completely underwater (landscaping comes shortly...):
(http://www.stormygirl.net/images1/storm4060310.jpg)
Larger hailstones in the alfresco. Apologies for fuzzyness:
(http://www.stormygirl.net/images1/storm5060310.jpg)
The one and only stone I collected, as it fell undercover and close to the door. The others melted fairly quickly, this one is still in the freezer:
(http://www.stormygirl.net/images1/storm6060310.jpg)
Damaged roof tile, now replaced:
(http://www.stormygirl.net/images1/storm7060310.jpg)
Measured it this morning, 3.5cm, and probably wasn't the largest, but the most convenient to collect!
(http://www.stormygirl.net/images1/storm8060310.jpg)
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Well Victoria does it again. More supercell thunderstorms. Anyway, I think the storm that hit Melbourne is quite worthy of discussion. Just having a look at the observations around Melbourne reveals a few interesting things. First off, Melbourne Ap was at best 27/15 before the storm. Replotting the Melbourne sounding with this gives only 800 j/kg surface-based CAPE. Hardy anything amazing. Further east of Melbourne things looked better with 28/17 and 30/18 for Viewbank and Coldstream, respectively. This would have resulted in CAPE to 2200j/kg. My biggest question is why did such a powerful supercell move through Melbourne when surface-based CAPE was <1000 j/kg? Was there greater 'elevated' instability? That is unstable parcels of air originating from above the surface. Another interesting thing to note is that SE'ly winds were present along the coastline while NE'ly winds were present to the north. I suspect the boundary that resulted was extremely important for these storms. It appears to me that the 'Melbourne' supercell rapidly intensified (or made the transition to a supercell) upon hitting this boundary.
I am also interested in the supercell that formed near Noojee. Looked equally impressive as the 'Melbourne' supercell on radar.
Michael
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While on the road from our NSW raid I will try to answer.
I think its important to look earlier in the play Michael. The first cell we followed last 4 hours from NW of Bendigo to Macedon....this died before another SC formed to its west.....this storm formed a Bow Echo with its own generation of energy along the outflow line...the SCs developed within this line inside the book-end vortices, one only need look at the TVS and couplets that appeared on this storm to Melbourne NW near Ballan. The wshear has a big role to play on this type of storm, particularly in the lowest 3km...and high levels of surface CAPE....I tend to believe a surface moistening occured to really invigorate that sounding.....dont forget Melbourne was clear skied and to the NW was pre-moistened from the previous day.
Anyway, Im a bit to tired to fully explain what I think happened dynamically (the SC behind did the same thing will a similar result in hooks and TVS). Will try again in the morning.
We chase a SC west of Deniliquin today that became the bow that smashed SE and did golfball hail,flooded and trees snapped and uprooted in Shepparton, and produced swathes of damage we will describe tomorrow. At least as impressive as Melbourne yesterday in terms of destruction.
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Just a brief report for now.
I cant believe how bad we did this weekend. On Saturday we got to Benalla at 10am and checked internet. We noted the first cell of the day in the Bendigo reigon.We were deciding between Seymour and Shepparton, and chose the latter option. Occasionally we got a glimpse at the cells to the very far south, which looked strong with occasional overshoots. Eventually a line developed near Deneliquin, and we intercepted the southern cell of this line near Nathalia. It briefly looked nice but quickly became outflow dominated. The storm tracked southeastwards towards Shepparton but became further disorganised with rain and cold outflow winds getting thrown out well ahead of the cell. Throughout the night we saw occasional lightning the majority CCs.
Today we targeted Finley, but made the fatal mistake of chasing sunshine further east(and heading further east would get us abit closer to home as well!) As a result we completely missed the HP supercells near Hay and Deneliquin. At one stage we even headed west towards Deneliquin but opted to head east again We did see some straight line wind damage east of Finley from the previous nights storms. Unfortunately the storms futher east were weaker and much more disorganised most likely due to a more saturated atmosphere. We should've stuck further west,i'm very angry about this. Anyway, heres some pics of the straight line wind damage 70kms east of Finley.
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v168/pingtang100/_MG_9503edit.jpg)
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v168/pingtang100/_MG_9506edit.jpg)
(http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v168/pingtang100/_MG_9505edit.jpg)
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My biggest question is why did such a powerful supercell move through Melbourne when surface-based CAPE was <1000 j/kg?
That was quite a powerful trough moving into Victoria considering the time of year with very moist low level air. It seems all the ducks lined up on the day to produce a 'freak' storm. Undoubtedly the storm of the season in Australia going by all those you tube clips.
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That was quite a powerful trough moving into Victoria considering the time of year with very moist low level air.
I agree with this. No doubt the wind shear was quite impressive. 50 knots at 500 mbar from the NNW with E/SE'ly surface winds is more than enough for powerful supercells. Also, surface dew points were around 17-18C during the afternoon over much of Victoria. This does not change the fact though that in Melbourne itself, dp's were only 15C in the prestorm environment. I would have thought this is not sufficient since this gives a surface-based CAPE of <1000j/kg. I am no expert but I do find this interesting. I may be missing something so please correct me if I am wrong.
Thanks Brad for the the discussion. Great storm event, I look forward to reading more.
Michael
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FINALLY someone has gotten it right. Senior BoM Forecaster Scott Williams quoted in The Age today...
"Shepparton copped very, very severe winds. There's a possibility of even tornadoes in it because massive trees were uprooted. As someone said, it looks like a bit of a war zone"
Note the word I've highlighted in BOLD.
Looking forward to seeing some more photos from this phenomenal event. I can't remember the last widespread severe storm outbreak in Victoria (and southern NSW) like this two day event. October 2001 (i think) may've been close but without a direct hit from an HP supercell on the suburbs of Melbourne.
Macca
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Anyone recognise this storm chaser (http://www.smh.com.au/environment/water-issues/heavy-rain-and-hailstorms-wreak-havoc-across-southern-nsw-20100307-pqlr.html) ................. :)
(http://images.smh.com.au/2010/03/07/1200948/Hay-420x0.jpg)
Looks like another very, very impressive event for Victoria and parts of southern NSW. Up here in Sydney we enjoyed a solid 'plains like' NE wind all day, which was wonderfully muggy and at times very gusty.
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This is a prime example of where the rules of supercell dynamics vary, as supercells are well documented being embedded within linear systems...and also a prime example where isolated SCs are not the dominant mode. Perhaps we need to have a little more of an open mind when considering the edges of supercellular theory...not eveything is totally textbook...Ever..its a Chaotic system which does not always follow the pre-concieved rules of experts.
I absolutely agree and have felt that way for years. Nature has a way of breaking rules and giving us little surprises.
Looking forward to your reports and photos. You have had a good second half of a storm season this year in Victoria, one that is making us envious up here in the north, although we are not for the damage caused, the loss of property,trauma,insurance claims and increase in policies fees to cover the loss etc etc.
Col
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On sunday Jimmy and i started at Finley , just north of the Murray. By 8am storms to the north and north west had anvils streaming overhead with mammatus , we headed west to deniliquin and danced about the line of storms trying to pick an intercept spot and watching for a storm to show potential , a good looking prospect was coming sse from the north west of hay so we raced north as it turned into a powerful squall line , watching from about 30km south of Hay we noted ground level inflow streaming into it. *****pano pic taken here******
we moved north as the storm moved overhead and into a decent hail shaft where we record 5.5cm hail... then we raced north to hay then east to get ahead of the line. storms were building east and north east and we we going to wait for a storm moving south from east of griffith when we spotted a split on radar to our south east , we moved south parallel to the right mover *****PIC**** trying to get south of it to get to its sister storm , the left mover. then a new complete line built rapidly south from the left mover and we got caught between th lines and it all turned into a massive rain event causing flash flooding throughout the region
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Hi,
Got back today after a couple of days chasing and then an overnight stay in Wagga Wagga. The system although exhibiting great windshear became vertically stacked for the most part. The lower level windshear was better further south in extreme southern Victoria and likely explains the reasoning why storms were far more intense. Sunday produced better windshear in southern NSW and together with heating produced some supercells that congealed into a squall line with some interesting severe echos on radar.
Chase Report 6th March 2010
On Saturday, we opted to chase near Deniliquin given we were never going to chase the Victorian cells anyway. There were cells west of Deniliquin that we took a look at, felt outflow and took off east again. On the way to Deniliquin, a few cells developed along an outflow boundary and forming a squall line. The cell that approached from near Hay looked interesting and made a direct hit on Deniliquin. It had a reasonable structure for a while but became outflow dominant very quickly.
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2010/0306jd16.jpg)
Chase Report 7th March 2010
On Sunday, after a night over in Finley, we headed out to the line of storms developing and already severe warned to the west of Deniliquin. The first storm in the lin approaching the Victorian border had an interesting base but difficult to tell from our perspective. We opted to head further north of Deniliquin which was where discrete cells had developed and even this far out of radar produced some strong echos. These slowly began to congeal into a squall line with perhaps embedded supercells. We interceped and timelapsed these cells with some moderate inflow. Above the surface though, winds were rather strong and also from the east. The inflow and outflow interaction was rather sharp and the wind change rapid. This is behaviour atypical of Tornado Alley squall lines.
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2010/0307jd12.jpg)
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2010/0307jd14.jpg)
On our treck north, I noted heavy rain and then increased lightning. No sooner than I mentioned we were approaching a core did I hear thumps! From say 2cm hailstones it quickly became 4 to 5cm in diameter. We did stop and the winds had eased with large splashes in the water in the fields. Imelda, Kimberly and Nick all copnfirmed that hailstones larger than the ones we measured had fallen as by the time we got back to measuring these, it was at least 5 minutes or slightly longer. Hailstones were in melt down due to the rain still falling. This was a nice surprise though.
Further east, we attempted to intercept two splitting cells southeast of Griffith though with dwindling fuel supplies and a rapidly developing rain band, these became embedded in the mess. I am glad Nick was able to photograph the right mover which has some interesting structure - though nothing confirmed from our perspective.
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2010/0307jd18.jpg)
Today, I took a few pictures of the region near Wagga Wagga in flood.
(http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2010/0308jd18.jpg)
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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John,
That hailstone size surely must be a record of some sort for the region around Melbourne? What do you mean exactly in the statement the hailstones were not as hard as the ones I recorded? Is there a possibility that hailstones were fused together? Thus far, there is little indication in terms of pictures of hailstones larger than about 8cm so it would be great to have images to show the structure of this hailstone measured. Thanks John for following it up. In my opinion, the atmosphere did not really support such hailstone sizes though if the storm suddenly collapsed - then it may have been a hail dump! This happened a few years ago in the Dorrigo area where 10cm hailstones were dumped suddenly prior to the storm disappearing rapidly from radar. I have seen a similar documented example in the US by Tim Marshall who filmed the hail falling profusely in a hail dump and the radar showing the storm suddenly die! Michael Bath also filmed a hailstorm which broke his windscreen which was in the process of a storm collision (sudden intensification and then gone).
As to the holes punctured by hailstones to 12cm, this is not an indicator of size necessarily but it will be interesting if other hailstones can be found that match or exceed the 10cm diameter. I would rather also get a more thorough reading to the nearest millimetre as 10.0 cm seems rounded off.
Whilst on the subject, here is an article from 1954 Melbourne hailstorm - this storm definitely surpasses it!
http://www.bom.gov.au/amm/docs/1954/forster.pdf (http://www.bom.gov.au/amm/docs/1954/forster.pdf)
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Hi all,
I have been photographing storms for about 25 years. I was in Shepparton to attend a wedding and was staying at the caravan park South of the City center on the Goulburn Vally Highway Kialla. On Sunday the 7th of March as another storm rolled in, I thought I would try my luck for some lightning photos from the new Kialla Coles complex. What hit literately seemed to come from nowhere. Looking back at my images with time tags its two minutes from calm to scary time stuff. I just stepped under the veranda of the shopping centre to get out of the rain that was falling, this was useful for ten seconds, then I stood in front of a pillar that was about as wide as a door for the next 4 minutes. During this time as the wind speed grew and grew I found that I had trouble breathing and curled up on the ground. I was thinking what the hell have I done, I thought my camera and I had bitten off more than we could chew. I must say I'm not sure if the the right word would be scared.
Here is a link to my past images.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rossfelix/sets/72157604088903601/ (http://www.flickr.com/photos/rossfelix/sets/72157604088903601/)
I will post more of the Shepparton stuff over the weekend.
I have included an image of my safety spot!
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Hi John,
Should have mentioned, according to David Jones and the Bureau database it is a Melbourne record for hailstones, and not far off the 11cm Victorian record (need to look up where this happened).
I am more interested in what Blair Trewin's final outcome is of this because if it is some sort of record, the measurement device and technique and hopefully some sort of image would have to be taken into account in the quality control process.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Hi John,
I have chased quite a few storms over the years in the giant hail category and the probability is low that the hailstones were 11.0cm and now 10.0cm in diameter given we are now talking about records - not such a good system. Same for the 14cm hailstorm from Kempsey.
The largest hailstone I have measured was 9.6cm with calipers. Records in the United States are also documented thoroughly. Sorry for the slightly off topic reports but this is what I am trying to indicate. And yes you are so correct John, no photographs. Apparently the Kempsey hailstorm way back in December 1991 has a photograph in the local paper which I have not been able to track down though I am not so sure if it was the giant hailstone or a sample of monsters that fell.
Anyway, I will await further details as per usual.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Hi guys,
(http://photos-e.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash1/hs449.ash1/24754_346823618039_630988039_3621061_5369380_n.jpg)
This picture was taken by a person from Ferny Creek.
Nick named Hillybilly and he quotes:
"BTW here is one damage photo I took of one hail stone hole "
This is rather close to 10cm.
Now the report was from Ferntree Gully not Ferny Creek. They are a few kilometres apart.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Hi John,
Have found out some more intriguing info about the large hailstone:
From DJ at the NMOC the 10cm stone at FTG was two 5cm stones which had frozen together (an aggregate). This is starting to sound a little fishy to me.
Thanks for clarifying what was becoming almost obvious to me. Not as hard oas the stones I got sounded unusual given there were no images.
I don't blame them though - if you are not used to such an event, fusing of hailstones can be easily overlooked though we should question the validity.
The hailstones below are the typical giant hailstone structures with the largest hailstones suffering from considerable melting but we have to take it as is.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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I opened the photo in photoshop and using 2 vertical guides to line up the edges of the longest side of the center hailstone along the ruler in the photo and counting down to the nearest millimeter I got exactly 9cm. I think with a bit of melting it could have approached the 10cm mark?
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Just heard through the Bureau grapevine that the 10cm hailstone reported in Melbourne is actually factual. Was recorded by a BOM observer at home (Classic case of Work following you home).
I didn't know that all BoM observors also work at the BoM. ;)
Seriously though I think you've nailed this on the head when you mentioned the BoM "grapevine". They seem to be not only full of all sorts of mis-information but they are often the propogators of said information. I think they (BoM meteorologist) should have to move every two years to a new office to get a better perspective and understanding about severe weather.
As for 10cm hailstones show us the photo with the ruler or stop talking about the possibility. I experienced the Blacktown Classic Supercell event of a couple years ago which produced up to 9cm hailstones and you know what, 8-9cm is big enough to smash roofs and cars and just about everything else. Lets remember that 8-9cm from a supercell in Melbourne is amazing and significant and so lets stand in awe of that instead of trying to constanly enhance and stretch the evidence.
Regards Jeff.
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Hi Enak,
I think with a bit of melting it could have approached the 10cm mark?
The question is - did it? the visual evidence to me suggest the hailstone is virtually intact with minimal melting so if it appears 9cm, then that is the nearest approximation. The middle one has definitely had melting.
My initial query was centred on the fact that the atmosphere did not seem to support such massive hailstones in my opinion. I am even surprised that 8 - 9cm was spawned despite the thermodynamics. This is why I believe that the collapsing of the storm phase may have lead to the hailstones of this size. I guess it is usually the weakening of the updraft that allows for the suspended hailstones to finally reach the ground.
John, what was the swathe path length of hailstones with diameters say greater than 8cm?
Lets remember that 8-9cm from a supercell in Melbourne is amazing and significant and so lets stand in awe of that instead of trying to constanly enhance and stretch the evidence.
Totally agree Jeff. I recall chatting to Michael Bath when we first began chasing about how infrequent hailstorms with hail say 7cm or greater actually were in the Bureau database.
The widespread nature of this event may see this event 11 years on from the Sydney hailstorm challenge its status as the most devastating hailstorm. Rumour has it that already 25,000 vehicles have been set aside for repairs from 3 insurance companies alone.
Regards
Jimmy Deguara
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Hi John,
From what i've seen and heard the damage path is fairly long and intense, but relatively narrow
That is a fairly general statement - could you be more specific about what you have seen... and heard? I am specifically talking about hail sizes say greater than 8cm - how long was this swathe?
we sort of didnt realise/fully appreciate its significance until we reviewed the funnel it produced and saw the dynamics in cloud motion (I only saw the hook echo and couplet and thought nothing of it lol)...
Really - I wouldn't have though nothing of it! What if it produced a tornado?
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Hi guys,
What a beast of a storm system this was! I can't believe I didn't get anything from it lol! I was in Albury at that time marveling at the radar signature with some friends of mine wondering and debating if we should head out into the mix. From the damage reports I'm kind of glad we didn't.
Seeing the supercell looming over Melbourne on the news was amazing! Such a beautiful structure and very well defined on the front edge.
We ended up down in the Buckland Valley (just West of Bright in VIC) a few days later and we were greeted by spectacular waterfalls in full effect coming off of Mt. Buffalo. I wish I had my camera handy but we were gold prospecting at the time.
I recall an Albury local telling me they received around 68mm from that system. We didn't see any storms hit the Albury area but did hear the odd thunder rumble amongst the low cloud and rain.
Great reports, photos and video as usual :D
Take care,
Shauno.
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Here is a link to the picks taken in Shepparton on the 7th. Also included are some images from Lake Boga taken on my way back home to Adelaide. The system that looks like a tunnel was west of Echuca these are from the 8th.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rossfelix/sets/72157623490947575/ (http://www.flickr.com/photos/rossfelix/sets/72157623490947575/)
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Hi all,
I was actually surprised to see the footage of the storm when it hit FTG, as I live only 10-15kms away, in Mooroolbark - we got 26mm in 25 mins from the supercell storm, but no hail... I have friends who live in Central FTG (for the Vic observers, they live in Bruce St, near the Railway station) and they had heard to storm coming (the typical "freight-train" like noise), and also encountered large hailstones making sporadic "bonk" noises off the tin roof moments before the storm let fly. This noise they heard, could it have possible been the sound of an approaching tornado? Any other views?
Peter J (Big P)
PS - the storm did get an amazing "greenage" to the south of my home - and to the post about tornado warnings, they should be included in Melbourne's severe warning set up - coz we do get these type of storms from time to time.. my memory is November 1983 hailstorm that destroyed parts of Croydon, Mooroolbark and Mt Evelyn... one memory that remains with me to this day...
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Hi Ross,
Looks like you had a fantastic and extensive shelf cloud certainly resulting from those very powerful winds.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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I have friends who live in Central FTG (for the Vic observers, they live in Bruce St, near the Railway station) and they had heard to storm coming (the typical "freight-train" like noise), and also encountered large hailstones making sporadic "bonk" noises off the tin roof moments before the storm let fly. This noise they heard, could it have possible been the sound of an approaching tornado? Any other views?
I would say this noise was the sound of hail hitting roofs and other surfaces. I have heard what you described once before in the 1999 Sydney hailstorm (but south of Wollongong when it crossed the coast). First I heard the sound of the odd stone hitting roofs followed by a roar of the approaching 'wall of hail.'
Michael
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Looks like a few cricket balls (7cm) in there. Nice to see a clip without all the hysterics too - just the sound of large hail. No strong winds in that location (where ever it was).
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Certainly some big stones in that front yard!
Here are a few pic my mum took from her balcony (looking WSW towards where the CBD can usually be seen!) as the storm front moved in. Obviously the big hail is still suspended above. Some interesting features and structure can be seen.
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On another note, at work I deal a lot with asbestos related issues in workplaces including asbestos cement roofs which dont take too kindly to large hail. Yesterday a colleague of mine showed me photos of hail damage to the roof of a very large brickworks in Scoresby, which interestingly is 5-6km further west of the residential areas such as Lysterfield that got hit so hard.
The size of the brickworks can be seen in google map but im told the main building is over 150m long, 40mwide and quite tall (guessing 15m+) and the entire roof is asbestos cement material.
http://maps.google.com.au/maps?q=-37.887115,145.211964&num=1&t=h&sll=-37.899146,145.232992&sspn=0.035223,0.06403&gl=au&ie=UTF8&ll=-37.886235,145.212135&spn=0.044031,0.091238&z=14 (http://maps.google.com.au/maps?q=-37.887115,145.211964&num=1&t=h&sll=-37.899146,145.232992&sspn=0.035223,0.06403&gl=au&ie=UTF8&ll=-37.886235,145.212135&spn=0.044031,0.091238&z=14)
The photos show an incredible number of very large holes punched through the roof and I'm talking potentially many hundreds and i'm talking many to the size of cricket balls. Then of course there is the contamination and water damage that followed. The entire plant has been shut down for asbestos decontamination and subsequently for plastic to be placed over the machinery to allow asbestos removalists to remove the entire roof above without further contamination. This is likely to take a month.
I hope to share the photos but at this stage I do not have permission as they were taken by the building owner.
Regards,
Brad.
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Friday March 5th 2010 - pics of flooding on Bendigo's western outskirts:
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Various stitched wide angle panoramics of the storms that followed the backbuilding line that soaked Bendigo:
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2 more stitched wide angle pano's west of Bendigo:
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Impressive inflow was on the menu this evening with some inflow bands stretching 180 degrees behind us as well as these curving bands:
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various bowl shaped bases, possible weak funnels and a nice sunset seemed to end the chase.....
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........or so we thought but at 8.20pm on (Friday 5th March) after it got dark and we were driving back to Bendigo we caught this to our north east and I had to use f2.8 1/5 sec ISO1600 to get these grainy handheld shots:
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If only we had more light to play with....
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Finally I have been able to process some photos and here are some panoramic stitches of the storms John and I chased (and ran from!) on the 6th and 7th March in central and north central Vic and south central NSW. Some of these pano's are up to 7 wide-angle shots joined together so keep in mind that these storms were much much closer and much bigger than might appear at first glance. I will also post some single images which are well worth it.
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more panos from the 6th March
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and more pano's from the 6th March
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Pano's of the storms on the 7th March
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And more pano's of the storms on the 7th March
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Pano's of the huge storm as it moved towards Denniliquin on the 7th March
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Pano's of the huge storm as it moved towards Denniliquin on the 7th March and we skirted its eastern flank:
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These are John's pano's of the same storms:
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These are John's pano's of the same storms:
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Rather than posting heaps of individual images on the forum (which can be time very time consuming) here is a link to an album from which you can view them:
note - the images are in reverse chronological order until you click the 'sort oldest' button
http://img72.yfrog.com/g/dsc0267xe.jpg/ (http://img72.yfrog.com/g/dsc0267xe.jpg/)
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You've been busy, Brad!
Great pano shots of the storms and certainly glad I logged on and viewed them!
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Hi Brad,
Sorry I have been rather busy over my vacation break but I did take the time to check those pans out. Awesome storms!
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Hi Mike/Jimmy, yeah thanks. They look great on the 50 inch plasma ;) Looking forward to being able to apply the panoramic style to some US beasts!
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Hi there, This is my first mini-documentary of a storm event.
Shepparton experienced the biggest storm in living memory on the 7th of March, 2010. Windgusts of around 156km/h and over 10mm of rain were experienced in 3 minutes.
This 10 minute youtube clip brings together all media possible of the event and includes interviews a week after the storm hit of several townsfolk and how they dealt with it.
Shepparton Storm, 7th March 2010 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0VvbGyi6E0#ws)
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oh nope, i didnt actually, i'll get in touch and ask him, and remove it if need be. That was a rushed last minute add, at 3am. There's a lot i don't know about weather as it is a new interest of mine, so i'd be prepared to modify if need be. cheers for the feedback.
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I don't mind the voice-over. Nicely put together video. Funny how we all say "best storm ever" when the rest of the community would be thinking worst :)
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Here is a link to the picks taken in Shepparton on the 7th. Also included are some images from Lake Boga taken on my way back home to Adelaide. The system that looks like a tunnel was west of Echuca these are from the 8th.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rossfelix/sets/72157623490947575/ (http://www.flickr.com/photos/rossfelix/sets/72157623490947575/)
awesome photos, man that would of been intense in that carpark! i can't imagine what it was like.
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Hi John,
Tornadoes did occur prior to this system reaching Shepparton
Any further information as to these tornado reports? I would love to hear about them.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
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Hey all,
I'm new to the forum and wanted to post some pictures I took of this weather event. I was located in West Melton, 35 kms west of Melbourne and filmed the storm on approach. After repositioning myself, the storm passed by 2 kms to my north. Just managed to stay away from the large hail in the out flow. Couldn't believe how green the clouds were, lots of CG's and wind gusts around the 90 kms/hr mark.
All the Best,
Chris.
(http://i627.photobucket.com/albums/tt359/Hoplocephalus/SupercellMelton00012.jpg)
(http://i627.photobucket.com/albums/tt359/Hoplocephalus/SupercellMelton00011.jpg)
(http://i627.photobucket.com/albums/tt359/Hoplocephalus/SupercellMelton00013.jpg)