August and September rain statements for Victoria 2008Big Pete, I have only just found some time to look at the Rainfall data for Victoria. I would describe the September rainfall figures for the state as alarming.
I found a report on Weatherzone dated 25/9/2008 suggesting that Melbourne could have its driest month in 2 years. The city has had 11.6 mm of rain up until 25/9/2008 and if it stays below 13.4 mm then it will end up being the driest month since October 2006 (Weatherzone).
However, I have played around with the August and September rain graphs and charts at:-
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/austmaps/and
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/rain_maps.cgi?map=contours@variablIn summary the following happened during August around the state:-
- NW Victoria around Mildura appears to have received average rainfalls.
- The rest of the Mallee received 0 to 10 mm below average rains.
- The SW received 10 to 25 mm above average rains.
- Western and Central areas received 10 to 25 mm below average rains.
- Northern areas typically received 25 to 50 mm below average rains..
- North east border areas received 25 to 50 mm below average rains.
- A pocket around Mt Bogong and the highest peaks received 100 to 200 mm below average rains.
- North Central areas around Bendigo received 10 to 25 mm below average rains.
Of interest, a pocket in far east Gippsland had 50 to 100 mm above average rains. It was a wet month here.
Melbourne typically received 10 to 25 mm below average rains.
Again, the general trends away from the coastal areas reveal another month of below average rains.
It is also noteworthy that the NE area along the Murray River received just 40 to 60% of average monthly rainfall. Rainfall this year for some urban centres in this region is averaging 100 mm below average.
Melbourne on the other hand is averaging 80 to 100% of its annual rainfall to the end of August so it is not doing as bad as some other regions of the state.
Yearly anomalies from December 1 2007 to 31 August 2008 tell the following:-
- Melbourne is down by 75 to 150 mm.
- The north west is down by 0 to 75 mm (Hence this region is not doing too bad but one must remember rainfall is always lower here than the rest of the state).
- The North east border along the Murray River is down by 75 to 150 mm. This is reflected in the rainfall deficiency being experienced around Albury Wodonga which is over 100 mm to date.
- The north central region is down by between 0 and 75 mm. This includes Shepparton but increases to 75 to 150 mm further south around Ballarat and Bendigo.
- The NE mountains have rainfall anomalies of between 150 and 300 mm.
- The SW is down by 75 to 150 mm.
In summary, rainfall deficiencies still prevail but some areas have received fair rainfalls which is enough to approach average figures. A large area is still being starved of rain, especially the north and north east.
September 2008:Peter, your checking is proving to be quite accurate. The models and trends to 27/9/2008 show a decline in rainfall experienced for the month right across the state. The state is struggling to record anything worthwhile. Average anomalies so far typically range from 25 to 50 mm below average and 50 to 100 mm below average for the Dandenongs. The north west is experiencing 10 to 25 mm below average. Barely any part of the state has received a soaking.
The north and north east are badly hit again.
This is truly odd and a paradox, minor flood warnings are still in effect for the Murray River above the Hume Reservoir. Apparently a pocket around Mt Kosciusko has received well above average falls for the month and coupled with snow melt, the two combined has been enough to cause minor flooding. Looks like there will be some useful water inflows into Lake Hume and the Murray River despite the ongoing rainfall deficiencies elsewhere across the state.
Harley Pearman
