Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => General Weather - all topics not current severe weather. => Topic started by: Peter J on 10 January 2008, 04:08:48 PM
-
Quite clearly a break from the rainfall would be good for NSW Northern Rivers and QLD's northern and southern paerts at the moment. Spare a thought for us Mexicans (Victorians), especially the outer-eastern Melbournians. Since Dec 22, we have not had one drop of rain. Two cool changes have occurred and some cloud has passed by. But not one drop of rain has fallen where I live. If this keeps up, Melbourne could have its driest January on record! so far that is the case, the previous driest to this day (9/1) is 15mm.
On a serious note, could someone devise a plan to ship that lovely overflowing floodwater down to our driest catchment dams? We could use some rain too. Its expected to clock over 40deg c for the next two days straight. Also a good flood would do South Oz a world of good too!
Thanks
Big Pete (not so big as I'm drying up).
-
Well, I guess Alice Springs found its way down to Melbourne, congratulations. Its just the crazy Melbourne weather!
It seems abnormal for such a prolonged heatwave, this has gone on for weeks now, are you sure global warming has anything to do with it?
-
Hi,
From my recollections of the Melbourne and Victorian region, I thought heatwaves at this time of the year were not so uncommon. It seems more normal weather than what had been observed in most recent seasons. Correct?
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
Being originally from Adelaide I've always experienced the long hot spells during December/January most years. I would have thought it was the norm, but having said that, not to have any rain at all in one area for so long seems out of the ordinary ? Pete, can you dig up some stats on the rainfall averages for the last few years? This will give us something to go on and discuss further for your parts of the world.
Mike
-
Jimmy,
You are right. Heatwaves in Melbourne are not uncommon at this time of the year, but there is normally a pattern to them. Normally from cool days of 23 to 24c progressing to the 36-37c following on with afternoon storms/rain to cool the temp off then back to start of cycle. Unfortunately of recent times, especially in this decade, the weather during summer here is getting dryer and dryer. There are the unusual rain events like Feb 3, 2005 - where we had close to 170mm in 7 hrs (a record), and 2006 we didnt get rain for much of January (a decent storm came and dumped 20mm in 2hrs around the 18th or 19th of Jan that year). But they are becoming common place. Also our water storages (catchments) are at their lowest since the 1982-83 drought - a sobering thought for the fire fighters here). But it is unusual to not get rain between christmas day and the second weekend of January during my lifetime.
Mike
I can only go by the figures from the BoM, as they have been my mainstay for stats. Last year between Dec 22 and Jan 9, Melbourne's rainfall was from memory about 18mm. This year it is 0mm. The forecast does hold a possibility of showers tomorrow night (1-5mm). Hopefully it will happen. If not we may be in for our driest January since 1954.
Big Pete (aka PJ)
-
Isn't funny how Sydney hasn't seen many of these heat waves in fact, they have missed out, usually around this time you may see an occasional 38 Degree day, we haven't seen that much, there were a few but not much. I do spare a thought for those down south. I personally think its got to do with global warming/climate change and La Nina, maybe I'm wrong.
-
Steve,
I personally think its got to do with global warming/climate change and La Nina, maybe I'm wrong.
I would agree with La Nina contributing to the lack of hot dry days this summer. The probability of moisture laden air reaching extreme temperatures of near 40C is relatively low. Once the drier low dew point air sets in, with the right conditions, yes certainly you can easily break the 40C barrier on some days during the summer. To my knowledge, we have not cracked the 40C as yet. Can I be corrected on this?
Of course, we are only approaching the middle of the traditional summer months. January being the hottest month as well as February can change things.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
Certainly Jan and Feb are amongst Melbourne's hottest months as a rule, and March can be too. The big problem down here is the greater the dry the more chance for worse bushfire threats. So far, I have heard reports of a large fire in Elaine, near Ballarat. And the current change moving through Vic as we speak will not be helping the firies fighting that fire. Wind gusts here where I live have been bordering on 60kph so far, and Tullamarine Airport has had gusts up to 70kph. Couple these gusts with fairly low RH levels (19% near where I live), and bushfire is now a serious threat. An old saying goes here, that if the RH drops below 15%, the fire threat increases by almost 1000% - a risk we have to endure during Summer and Autumn.
Big Pete
-
As a side issue if it is global warming causing strange weather patterns, it has snowed in Baghdad for the first time in recorded history.
-
Richary,
I have been taking notice of the deep low that has been circling around the Iraq area of late. Jim Andrews of accuweather.com's international section (click on World Weather), has an interesting article on this low and the fact that parts of Iraq and Saudi Arabian deserts are getting snowfalls for the first time in many many years.
Funny, "Global" warming is not so global at the moment (lol).
Big Pete
-
Even more left field - doesn't that indicate one of the seven signs of the apocalypse!
According to Wikipedia snow happens once or twice every decade, but I also found this article from 2005 with a photo of an ice laden dwelling in Saudi Arabia. Must be a weather pattern that does come around more than twice every decade.
http://news.ert.gr/en/c/1/13970.asp
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saudi_Arabia
Mike
-
Hi all,
Just an update of the weather here in Mooroolbark Victoria - we had .5mm on the storm day outlined earlier in this thread. And that is all for January so far. The Coldstream area got 3.4mm. This is still shaping up to be the driest January on record, unless the promised storms and rain predicted for the weekend eventuate, otherwise the govt here may tighten water restrictions, coz our storage dam levels are going to drop. We've had 3 cool change periods here (including tonight), but little to no rain about. I feel for all of you blokes in NSW and QLD that are getting inundated though. We never seem to get the weather in moderation any more, just falls into extremes now (good for the chasers).
Big Pete
-
Jimmy
You are correct.
For the first time since the summer of 1999, temperatures anywhere in Sydney have not yet reached 40 degrees for the summer 2007 / 2008. The hottest day this year was the 13/1/2008 when it topped 38.4 degrees Celsius at Penrith and 37.1 Celsius where I live (Blacktown).
It is the coolest summer for many years. Temperatures have reached 30 degrees at my place (Blacktown) on 13 days in October, 6 days in November and December (Same number) and to date, 5 days in January making it 30 days this season or 11 days since 1 December 2007. The number of hot days, defined as a maximum temperature of 30 degrees or more is well down than normal.
Sydney I think has had just 1 day when it has reached 30 degrees. Further, of these the majority of these days have averaged between 30 and 32 degrees.
Compare this to previous summers - 71 days last spring / summer and 73 days previous season.
October 2007 was 2 degrees warmer than November and December meaning that November and December were significantly colder than the month of October.
This is consistent with what The BOM expected for eastern and north eastern NSW this summer being a summer with below average temperatures and above average rainfall.
Yet for interest and contrast, take a look at what is going on in SW NSW. A hot spell is affecting regional cities like Albury and Wagga Wagga where by 16/1/2008, the average monthly temperature for January was near 36 degrees or 5 degrees above the long term average maximum of 31 degrees. It is reaching the mid 30s every day in this region despite the La Nina and predictions of a cooler summer elsewhere. There are similar readings coming from Griffith and large areas of northern Victoria as well. I have never seen this happen during a La Nina event.
One suggestion is that La Nina's could be loosing their impact when compared to past La Nina's in some SW regions of NSW and northern Victoria. I have noticed an unusual number of warmer days for Melbourne so far this month as well. Allot more data is needed in this area but if this is true, then SW NSW and much of Victoria could be in serious trouble with their future rainfall. Keep in mind the drought has not broken in any of these regions. Rainfalls in these regions were below average again for 2007 (Up to 30% below average).
There is an excellent report recently published by the CSIRO in the Sydney Morning Herald available on the smh.com.au website (Environment Section) Titled "This Drought May Never Break". Worth reading. It explores this topic quite well and makes frightening conclusions about the likely future rainfall and climate for Victoria for the future.
Harley Pearman
-
Harley,
I think you hit the nail on the head down here in Vic. Although it has been cooler in parts of NSW (and some degree QLD), it has been significantly warmer and dryer across VIC. The drought has not broken here for some time, and unless good rains come in late Autumn and early Winter here, then things could get even worse.
I have remembered wetter times near my place in decades gone past. I even remember floods in Feb, and May (close to my brithday time). Also I remember sustained periods of rainfall in Melbourne (sometimes 5 to 6 hours at a time, even a whole day). Those times are fast becoming ancient history. I don't think in the last Decade - (1997-2007), that there has been a rain period consistently beyond 2-3 hrs in length here. Apart from the Dec 05 and 07, and Feb 06 rain event days (the storms in 05 and the floods in 06, and Dec last year), where there has been significant rainfall in a short space of time - and some great storms to watch, I don't think that Melbourne has endured a period of rain lasting more than 2 hrs at a time - when we have had rain.
Dry times ahead. For those who may be religious - pray for rain for Vic, and SA, coz both states REALLY need it!
Big Pete
-
Also in Melb, summer and early Autumn temps have gone beyond 40deg C on at least 8-10 times in the last 3 years - including one day a couple of years ago reaching a scorching 46 deg C in Melbourne (49 deg C in Geelong - 47 deg C in Coldstream). That was a hot one.
Big Pete (appended)
-
Just been looking at the BoM forecast area on their website and the WZ site, and it looks like country Vic might get some much needed benefits from the trough and low that has been flooding parts of NSW and much of inland QLD. There is a prediction that Northern and Western Vic may get some storms too (pity my car's fuel level is so low and fuel prices are too high here (Vic avg $1.48 per litre) otherwise I might look to chase a few to get some pics worthy of this site). I know how much it is needed here, and this weekend and early next week might provide 15-20mm in areas that desp need it - including the farmers of the N and NW regions like Mildura and Echuca, etc. And maybe, just maybe a bit more than .5 mm might fall at home too - been driving in Mt Evelyn just 10km east of me and the grasses are turning that yellow-brown colour again - signs of a bad fire danger ahead.
Big Pete.
-
Lets look to the other side - 2nd Post - 19/1/2008
Hello
Further to my previous post here, I have been thoroughly watching this current monsoonal low as it has drifted south, south west through Queensland, New South Wales and into Victoria (16 to 19 January 2008).
As I previously stated, much of eastern Australia has had some good soaking rains. Good rains have also fallen from this current system but south west New South Wales and Victoria has missed out on the good falls again.
This is another example where the system has weakened by the time it has reached Victoria. Rainfall totals reached over 100 mm around the Charleville region (Queensland) including outlying areas and there has been some flooding as well.
In northern New South Wales, rainfalls have reached 60 to 66 mm around Cobar and regions (By 7.30 am 19/1/2008) but by the time it has reached southern New South Wales, places around Albury and regions has received a paltry 6 mm (By 7.30 am 19/1/2008). Rainfalls across this region are significantly lighter when compared to more northern places.
The system lost its strength and the cloud was more patchy in southern NSW when compared to cloud cover across eastern and northern NSW. This is another case where a significant cloud system did not penetrate too well into the drought affected area of Victoria and South West New South and it provides another example in which rainfall patterns could be changing.
In the past, I remember these cloud systems reaching all the way down into southern New South Wales delivering summer falls of at least 20 to 30 millimetres.
The CSIRO has suggested that some parts of southern NSW has lost the equivalent of 1 years supply of rain in the last two years. What I have seen occur over the last three days could add some weight to that.
Pete, your statements have truth to them and if you have been monitoring this current cloud and rain system like I have, then you would see the pattern that I have observed.
Harley Pearman
-
Definetly have, Harley.
It has been raining lightly here on and off for the last 16 hrs or so, but only 5mm rain in the gauge as of 4pm today (19/1) AEDT. It is true that the system from the north has given us some of the rain, and it is very welcome here. But, as you have pointed out, it is very weak compared to the rainfall in NSW & QLD. Who knows, maybe our turn in Vic is still coming (for a drought breaker).
Big Pete
-
Got a healthy 22mm of rain overnight in Mooroolbark - no storms, but a few heavy rain patches did come in after dark - about 1130pm or so a good downpour came in. Great to see the rain here. And the temp has dropped markedly over the last 2-3 days. Still cloudy as of 12pm 20/1, and there has been some light rain/drizzle around - but cooler throughout.
Big Pete
-
For those interested in Vic weather - it has settled down here after a good weekend of rain - Sunday showed 92mm in Managlor (near Seymour) - a near record single-day January rainfall for the area, and a healthier level for the Northern Vic region.
According to BoM, there is a trough approaching in the next 2 days that will unsettle Vic weather, and may provide some opportunities for the storm chasers here for a reasonable chase. That is, if the tropical heat and moisture come through - that occurred last time on Dec 22 last year.
We shall all wait and see (like we do with any storm),
Big Pete
-
From the vantage point of my home, I can see good convection forming to the E-SE, and plenty of nice cumulus clouds forming from the NW. This looks like a promising sign for the forecasted possible storms over the next three-four days here.
Big Pete
-
Jan 29 2008.
Nice rain shower came in to cool off a close to 30c day. But not much more than 2mm fell. No storms here in O/E Melbourne. But at least we are getting some rain, even if it is 1-2mm at a time. Waiting for the Autumn rains around April - May. It has been close to a normal summer here. Temps for the last month have hovered above average for most of January, with about 6 days above 32c. Our water catchments here since Dec have fallen from 39.9% down to 37.5%. Also some talk on the TV about Vic needing rain of biblical proportions for us to not need water restrictions.
Big Pete
(back to work tomorrow after 6 weeks of boredom)
-
Well... Finally a decent dumping of showery (but cold) rain here in Melbourne! Yay!
I checked the rain gauge here in Mooroolbark at about 12.30 (just after the main rainband had left), and it showed we had 21mm in about 6.5 hrs (since the time i left for the morning half of my shift at work). Just what we really needed here!!!!
I have enjoyed the posts of some of those northside from me. Hope the storms haven't caused too much damage there.
Keep Safe
Big Pete
-
Even the cold fronts that move across the Bight from the west and deep lows from Antarctica miss Victoria - perhaps it's to do with the systems just being too far south to have any decent effect on that state or the influence of stronger high pressure systems with dominant wind flows nudging them out? Melbourne always seems to get decent storms when troughs swing through - but Victoria is renowned for it's unpredicable seasonal weather!
-
That is what makes Melbourne well known - the four-seasons-in-one-day effect. And mostly it happens between late spring and early autumn. Although the last 10 years or so have been more drought-affected, the weather still does have its unpredictability here.
Big Pete
-
And usually in Winter and around late Dec, some of the lows actually arrive on our doorstep here. But so many during the seasonal region depicted in my prior post. Also it is NW, North Central, North Country and North East districts that have a greater chance in Vic in seeing explosive SC's and the odd EF0-EF2 tornado. (most end up being gustnadoes and landspouts that occur closer to the coastal south).
Big Pete
-
Not being up to speed with the regularity of droughts in other states, but is this 10 year cycle you speak of a regular thing or is this something totally new to Vic and caused by the global weather patterns all being off-kilter of late?
Mike
-
Mike,
From memory, weather patterns in Vic normally cycle at about 7 years duration. But since the global warming and climate changes have been occuring, the drought systems have been longer and harsher. Also the mean temp here has gone up by at least 1-1.5deg c in the last 10 or so years, and the weather has changed more because of the rise. I'm finding that there are less 24hr periods of rain fall now than there was when I was growing up, the rain fall events generally only last 2 hrs max these days - with some exceptions. Also the patterns you described, with lows and cold fronts sliding further south are becoming more common - I have also found the country has has the weather systems move southwards more so in the last 10-15 years.
The clouds are higher in the sky these days also. When I was pre-teen, it was common for Melb to have low-cloud events and rainfalls/drizzle/light rain as common, but in recent times, most cloud structures tend to be higher - leads to larger rain drops during rain events. The recent rain event here (a few days ago) - we had rain drops falling to size of about 2cm (consistent with heavy thunderstorm rain drops).
Hope this helps you out a bit. Remember - most of the info I give is my anecdotal evidence, not necessarily the BoM's views.
Big Pete
-
Big Pete,
You will find the patterns across most of Australia would have been different for an extended period of time. The drought was prolonged as well and that means that the usual patterns we remembered where at least sufficient rainfall occurred did not occur. Even thunderstorm patterns in Sydney for the past so many years I think dating back to at least the early to mid 1990s or even the late 1980s were far more intense than in more previous years. Admittadely, the pas month or two saw the return of more local severe thunderstorms in western Sydney - some aras would have experienced 3 or 4 severe thunderstorms in the past 2 months which from a consistency is a decent return period.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
Lets look to the other side - Sunday 3 February 2008
Further to this discussion and my previous posts, I am identifying a recent trend in which rainfalls seem to be returning to southern New South Wales and large parts of northern Victoria which have been hit hard by the recent drought.
Some of the rains associated with La Nina now seem to be getting into the drought ravaged regions of South West New South Wales and northern Victoria. It has taken a long while or longer than it did with previous La Nina's.
With the previous rain event of mid January, rainfalls topped 50 to 70 mm across portions of northern Victoria and southern NSW and other centres had 30 to 40 mm. This was followed by a further 10 to 20 mm on 31/1/2008 in some centres.
Further more rain and storms is occurring on 3/2/2008 in some of these areas, especially around Corowa. The return of the rains is in stark comparison when compared to early 2007.
It is good to see this rain but it indicates that this La Nina has taken longer to penetrate inland than previous La Nina's. This could suggest that La Nina's in future could lose their impact in inland SW NSW and northern Victoria.
Harley Pearman
-
Hi Harley,
Just curious
It is good to see this rain but it indicates that this La Nina has taken longer to penetrate inland than previous La Nina's. This could suggest that La Nina's in future could lose their impact in inland SW NSW and northern Victoria.
Why would you suggest that because of this La Nina, that future La Ninas may take longer to penetrate inland? Would you not have thought this a coincidence? If it takes longer to penetrate inland does this mean that the La Nina will last longer?
Interesting for a discussion here - I am curious of your reasoning that's all. I have no answer otherwise except part logic and atypical climatic patterns.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
Hi all,
Monday Feb 4, 2008.
So far the "promised" rain for this part (the outer-east of Melbourne) has yet to arrive. We did undergo a severe thunderstorm warning for a short time last nite. The clouds were there, and some of them had the darker grey look about them, but no thunder or lightning was to be seen. Let alone, still 0mm in the gauge for yesterday and to 12:30pm today (monday) - and just 5.4mm for the first 4 days. There is a forecast in place for showers and local thunder for this afternoon - and some chance of these storms becoming severe in the NE and E of Vic. Worth keeping an eye on.
It has been good to hear NSW and QLD are getting good falls in their catchment areas, as we know down here too, good rains help us all to survive with drinking water a bit longer. But we are missing out in Melbourne. We had just under average rainfall in January - and most of that rain came in 2 days! And this month is expected to be above average, just that at the moment I can't see that being possible without a few drenchings.
Big Pete
-
Just in relation to my previous post below - there has been one severe storm go through Melbourne's outer west this afternoon, dropping 2cm hail and 16mm in 15 mins outside of Melton. It also recorded a wind gust of around 95kph.
As for where I live - yet again, plenty of storm clouds, no rain and no lightning - i see why it gets frustrating - and I'm not even chasing them!
Big Pete
-
Channel 9 weather tonight said that the onshore winds and inland low is a classic La Nina weather pattern. With more heavy rain to follow and at least some more falling in the Murray-Darling catchment. Got to say I hope it eases it for at least a couple of hours in the morning, got to go up in a cherry picker for a repair job. If it is raining like it is now that won't be any fun!
-
Lets Look to the other side Monday 4 February 2008
Jimmy, when compared to the 1983/84 La Nina, and 1992/1993 event, both summers were very wet but not as hot as the previous summers. Especially the December and January period although I remember a higher incidence of thunderstorms occurring across the whole region during both summers. These wet summers followed previous drought years. The summer during a drought year is often very hot and dry.
That is, you had a very dry year followed by a wet year and the average rainfall would even itself out across the two or three years.
In the case of 1982 / 1983, the drought of 1982 saw rainfall drop to 393 mm at Albury where I lived at the time with 100 mm of that falling in March and very little thereafter until mid March 1983. The following year 1983 was exceptionally wet from mid March onwards and the summer was wet right through. That was a La Nina year. I remember 201 mm of rain falling in January 1984 although Autumn was quite dry that year.
The summer of 1992/1993 was also a wet year which followed on the heels of a dry summer of 1991/1992. Further, the very hot summer of 1986/1987 was followed by a cool wetter summer of 1987/1988 and temperatures did not reach 40 degrees once that summer.
The year 2006 was a dry year in that region and rainfall was as low as 213 to 270 mm. The year 2002 was a dry year and around 414 mm of rain fell. There was some recovery in 2003 but the first rains did not arrive until well into May that year. The year 2004 was OK.
After the past 2 droughts given that they were back to back, the region did not recover as well. The first 6 months of 2005 were exceptionally dry in that region although the last 6 months were wet with well above average rains. The great drought of 2006 set in from January.
The rains returned to most of NSW in 2007 but SW NSW did not see useful rains until June. Then there was no further rain until late October. Even then, falls were patchy and the region suffered rainfall deficits of roughly 20% below average by the close of 2007. That is, while the La Nina's impact was being felt along the coast and northern NSW, this region had no true relief until November 2007.
Incidentally, when looking at the drought figures and yearly rainfall deficits for February 2008, South west New South Wales is still in drought. Further:-
a) Average daytime temperatures for January 2008 were 2 degrees above average for southern NSW (Being about 33 degrees at least). For the rest of NSW, average January temperatures were 1 degree below average.
b) Far southern NSW and western NSW suffered a heatwave or near heatwave conditions in early January while temperatures struggled to reach 30 degrees in many areas coastal NSW or areas affected by cloud cover and rain.
c) There was 1 rainfall event in southern NSW that broke the heatwave about 2 weeks ago as I write this. However mid 30 degree temperatures soon returned thereafter.
This summer in southern NSW (Despite this La Nina) a trend has continued in which there has been 3 consecutive Januaries in a row in which daily maximum temperatures have been well above average.
A heatwave occurring during a La Nina event in southern NSW is unusual when compared to previous La Nina's.
The CSIRO has identified this region as being in serious trouble due to rainfall deficiencies and rising temperatures. Droughts also appear to be getting longer as well. While more research is required, whereas the previous droughts lasted 1 year followed by a wet year (Recovery), since the drought of 2002/2003, this region has not recovered as well given that there was a drought in the first half of 2005 (Rainfall was around 113 mm in 6 months), followed by the drought of 2006, barely any recovery in 2007 and now continuing into 2008. This region has missed out on many of the good rain events that has occurred elsewhere and dams are still at critical levels here.
I recently read a report prepared by the CSIRO regarding recent rainfall trends here and it does not look good. The drought statements and record keeping by the CSIRO and scientists are available for reading on the BOM website in the media section and the Sydney Morning Herald in the Environment Section. Makes for excellent reading on climate change.
Harley Pearman
-
Harley,
It seems you have provided a detailed explanation and drawn conclusions in response to relatively recent and short term La Nina events. I dare say that unless one draws attention to anything of the order of several decades of data, then one cannot conifidently conclude realistic trends in my opinion. I am surprised given you are much of a statistics buff!
Having said this, I would not mind checking the research you refer from the CSIRO. I am curious as to their trend analysis and what data time frame they draw conclusions from. Any links on the internet Harley?
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
Jimmy
I will need to collect some of my notes and reports that I have collected especially during 2006 and 2007 while doing the climate change project at work. I will highlight these for you. Please note that it is an area under research and I agree with you that many years of data is required.
Maybe I should have made it clearer that this was an area under research.
In the 2006 Climate statement (I printed it out early 2007), it is stated that the dry conditions in southern and eastern Australia has continued the long term rainfall deficiencies some of which extend back 5 years. Aspects of this are highly unusual and unprecedented in many areas. Understanding this role is an area of active research.
Anyway a good starting point is the - Annual Australian Climate Statements that can be found at:-
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/.
There should now be one for 2007 in the system but I have not read that one which should be the latest such statement.
Annual climate statements for each state can be found at Recent climate summaries and diagnostics, same website but found in the media section. I will need to track the important ones down and advise.
The Sydney Morning Herald at smh.com.au has an Environment Section and has run a very good section on "The Big Dry" up until recently. Click on the Environment Section and scroll through the media reports relating to climate change. There are hundreds now but I can do that and spend some time and post aspects here.
I am only too pleased to present information but I had no idea others were interested in this topic.
I have been following this drought closely and aspects of it are most unusual and it is worth presenting here.
Harley Pearman
-
Hello
I have found some data reports and notes of where I am leading to. I will list some of them and provide some discussions and conclusions found including websites.
Greenhouse 2007 National Climate Centre
CSIRO Greenhouse
The conference of 2 - 5 October 2007 and Accepted Papers and notes can be found at www.sciencealert.com.au
or
www.greenhouse2007.com/downloads/papers
The question sought is:- Can we link changes in ENSO to climate change.
The early findings are:-
a) There is little evidence yet of climate change signal.
b) Climate models do not consistently predict a systematic change in ENSO under greenhouse forcing.
c) There have been 3 El Nino's contributing to Australia's rainfall declines.
d) In the past, La Nina episodes have consistently provided good rainfall for Australia. The link between La Nina and increased rainfall is stronger than the link between El Nino and rainfall decreases.
e) Recent La Nina's have been weak or anomalous (Irregular) and have failed to counter overall downward rainfall trends.
f) Baseline Ocean trends have warmed over the past 50 years affecting rainfall and SST relationships.
Further
a) Heavy rain day trends in the MDB (Murray Darling Basin) have decreased from 1970 to 2006.
b) Droughts appear to be getting hotter.
c) Increase in temperatures may be attributed to greenhouse climate change.
d) Recent dry years to have warm temperatures than past dry years.
e) Water inflows are down.
f) There have been two, possibly 4 El Nino events with little recovery of rainfall between.
Current La Nina
a) Early signs were good in 2007 but winter rains failed. Inland - SW and west in the MDB shows below average rainfalls continuing.
b) Premature but there is a BUT emerging, "It is prudent risk management at this point in time to consider that it might be so" Quote.
It is concluded that there is a drying in the Murray Darling Basin and drought severity seems to be increasing.
The CSIRO and BOM are researching the question? Is the recent Australian drought a sign of climate change?
Page 15 of that report (The paper) looks at rainfall recovery and there seems to be a downward trend.
The paper was prepared by Michael Coughlan, David Jones and Dean Collin (National Climate Centre) for the October conference.
I also found Figure 6 Australian rainfall impacts for some recent La Nina events and looking at the April 1998 to March 1999 large areas of inland SW NSW, Victoria and eastern South Australia suffered below average rainfalls too. This map series is from the report titled El Nino and La Nina and Australia's Climate (From www.bom.gov.au and dated February 2005).
IPCC Reports:
The IPCC reports provide limited detail on climate change. The Australian Greenhouse Office through the Australian Climate Change Science Program has engaged the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology to develop climate change forecasts.
The climate change report is available for download from the resources page. You should be able to get this at www.greenhouse.gov.au/science/hottopics/pubs/topic5.pdf
Special Climate Statement 14 Title - Six years of widespread drought in southern and eastern Australia November 2001 October 2007
The report describes the 6 year drought in the MDB exacerbated by high temperatures and low rainfall. It describes the anomaly occurring in the MDB (ie average rainfall 389 mm over 6 years which is 20% below the norm of 480 mm).
The report also describes a drought going back another 5 years in some localities and the lack of an intervening wet period. The report is noting the lack of wet periods to top up average rainfalls. This report comes with an illustrated map showing rainfalls deciles for an 11 year period from November 1996 to October 2007. It is noted that:-
a) South west NSW and parts of Victoria experienced below average rainfall or very much below average rainfall.
b) Much of northern Australia had above average rainfalls.
c) Eastern NSW had average to slightly above average.
The deciles include the 1998/1999 La Nina.
This report is published by the National Climate Centre and can be found on the BOM website. I have a copy of this.
A simpler article in the Sydney Morning Herald January 4 2008, simplifies much of the above so most people can understand it. Titled "This Drought May Never Break".
This article briefly describes the issues facing the MDB, climate change and ponders the question as to whether the drought will become permanent.
There is significant research in this area and there are many related reports but I have not read them all. Too many and some are substantial. I also found other related material being:_
El Nino - Of droughts and flooding rains. Page 9 of that report written in 1997 hypothesises unusual phenomena with recent La Nina's at the time such as frequency. This was written in 1997 but it seems back then a change was starting to be observed in their behaviour.
Go to http://www.abc.net.au/science/slab/elnino/story.htm
Harley Pearman
-
Hello
Further to my previous posts on this subject, I found an interesting article in "The Age" Titled:-
VICTORIA LOOKS TO THE RAIN SOAKED NORTH AND AKS WHAT ABOUT US? Date - 11 February 2008
This article fits in with some interesting weather patterns and themes as previously identified and some story highlights are:-
a) Recent rainfall is showing that Australia's eastern states are becoming divided between the have and have not. Sydney and Brisbane are receiving so much rain but Victoria is still crying out for a good solid rainfall event.
b) Melbourne had until 11/2/2008, 12 mm for February and there are suggestions that much of the state will remain in drought.
c) Historically La Nina favours higher than average rainfall over eastern Australia which is occurring this summer (For much of NSW and Queensland) but Victoria is still awaiting for a persistent deluge.
d) A recent rainfall model suggests that there is no great chance of Victoria getting above average rainfalls.
e) Victoria cannot rely on La Nina to help out on it's rainfall deficiency.
f) Victoria could lose out on the flow on effects of the downpours occurring up north.
Additionally, some useful rainfalls did occur over parts of southern NSW and north east Victoria Tuesday morning however falls were patchy and good falls were isolated. Reading the Border Mail Wednesday regarding this rainfall / storm event, it was identified that the best falls missed the dams but instead several creeks flooded. Given that the best falls missed the dams and catchments, there would be little or no change on water storage levels.
Harley Pearman
-
Thanks Harley,
Seems like this article backs me up, as rainfall in this part of Vic is well over 70mm below average for this time of year, and is abnormal for an La-Nina pattern, but then again, weather seems to never be normal.
Big Pete
-
Hi all,
The last two days here in Eastern Melbourne has been sweltering and hovering around the 35-37deg mark. But there is some good news in sight. According to Wz and BoM, there is some moderate chance of rain tomorrow and through the next 7 days in the forecast period. 1-5mm expected for at least 3-4 of those days. Some relief for those of us here not lucky to get much rain. And this is partly due to the moisture trail from TC Nicholas and an approaching cold front - the storm prediction though is very low.
We've only had 16.4mm of rain this month and 55mm overall (43mm at home) compared to the average of 103mm from 1/1 to 20/2.
Anyway, I hope all are safe in flooded regions around this great country - its great to know an old poem by Dorothy McKellar really does define this wide brown land - "...I love a sunburnt country, a land of sweeping plains...... of droughts and flooding rains" (Quote).
Big Pete
-
February 20, 2008
Hi again,
Just updating the rainfall in Melbourne again.
Coldstream 2.5mm
Yarra Glenn 5.1mm
(Mooroolbark - 5.2mm in home gauge)
Melbourne 2.7mm
Not much, but the significant drop in temperature is marked:
Coldstream Top temp 21deg C
Melbourne overnight low 20deg at 5am this morning, top temp 22dec.
This is approximately 6 deg below average for this time of the year. And this is in comparison to the last to days of 36 deg and 34 deg respectively.
The outlook is for more showers with the flow on effects of ex-TC Nicholas and moisture from the Top End.
Mike - I hope the floods in NT's north arent affecting you too much for movement and storm chasing/observing. I also heard on the BoM, the system affecting you may turn TC shortly.
Big Pete.
-
February 21st 2008
At least some rainfall yesterday brought a cool relief from the dry and heat experienced the last few weeks. Today was in direct contrast to yesterday. A fine and mild day throughout (although very warm later in the day) - also some Cu thunderheads were developing in the east of Vic (from my vantage point of Nunawading looking direct east), but were short-lived.
Keeping with Melbourne's theme of interchanging weather patterns, a vigorous set of cold fronts, preceding with trails of Ex-TC Nicholas will affect my region tomorrow, with a colder SWer change coming in (did someone invite winter in early??). The chance of some isolated storm activity may arise, but it will be storms synonymous with regular winter cold fronts - storms with hail (defined as COLD fronts for that reason - they produce BITTERLY COLD winds!), and may not produce any tornadic or gustnadic activity, but hopefully with my camera-phone, I may get a good chance to pic the front as it comes in, if it doesn't arrive too early!
Anyway, I will be away from my computer for a couple of days - house inspection (summer "spring" cleaning time - yuk!). But as soon as I can work out how to post the pics, I will share them with you all!
Happy storm hunting!
Big Pete
PS for those in NSW, this first of these fronts is expected to produce some storm activity in the south of your state sometime late tomorrow - keep an eye out. Also a severe wind warning (possible gusts to 90kph) has been forecast across a fair bit of VIC and S-NSW. Keep your hats on!
-
That cloud band from ex TC Nicholas (if that is what it is) has moved amazingly fast. But no rainfall recorded yet in SA - which could probably badly do with some.
Hope they get some rain soon down there. It was dry as when I left at the end of October.
-
Hi all again, back on air.
The last 4 days have been in direct contrast with each other. Following on from my last post (Ex-TC Nicholas's influence on Vic weather), the storm system didn't have any bite when it arrived in the eastern area of Melbourne, but we did get a healthy 15mm (is it mm or ml - I thought water was measured here in ml's...anyone clarify?) of decent rainfall here - much needed by all here - the two days of rain here did bring unusually cold temps too - 19c and 21c respectively (7 and 5c below the Feb average). Since then, the last two days have been chilly in the early morning, but blossomed into wonderful sunny days of 23-24c each - it felt warmer at times today.
There were no thunderstorms here, not even a sniff of a CG bolt to be seen - waiting for the next Storm system to arrive (Melbourne Storm is back in March - watchout!!!)
Big Pete
(official Storm member 2008).
-
Millilitres (ml) is a measurement of volume whereas millimetres (mm) is a length or depth - hence what we use to measure the depth of rainfall that has occurred.
You can use millimetres of rainfall to work out the volume of water that has fallen. For example 1mm of rain over one square metre equals 1 litre of water. Good to know when you have water tanks collecting rainwater off your roof - like I do :)
regards, Michael
-
Thanks Mike, I honestly thought it was a bad grammer mistake by the BoM.
No rainfall in the gauge here yet today, but there has been a few storms to the east of me, particularly some severe ones near Orbost late this afternoon - not sure if they have had any hail, but the cu clouds seem to indicate very heavy rainfall in some places to the east of Vic.
Today was a warm day early, but by 430pm the wind had picked up and clouds rolled in and outside the temp dropped a fair way - its only expected to get to 19c here tomorrow, the coolest Feb day for some time. This month has been colder than normal, but still dry.
For those in NSW (in particlar Sydney), please be careful around the flooded areas. There has been too many lives lost to drowning in floodwaters this year worldwide. More than is necessary.
Keep Safe
Big Pete
-
Sure does look like a cool day for Melbourne with the showers streaming in from the SSW at present.
-
The last two days in Melbourne have definitely been decidedly cooler, considering it is late summer - yesterday only got to 18c here, and last night the mercury dropped to near zero. It was certainly cold this morning at 530am when I left to go to work.
Also about 8mm of rain fell here yesterday in periodic showers.
Big Pete (frozen)
-
Lets look to the other side - 1/3/2008
Further to the previous posts, I came across an article in the Sydney Morning Herald - February 19 2008, titled:-
Rainfall prospects - Not good for south
Critical points are:-
a) Heavy rain brought by La Nina likely to dry up soon without having relieved southern Australia.
b) Dry areas will need to hope for tropical rain during March and April as the prospects for Autumn rain and winter rain do not good good.
c) Climate change seems to be affecting the volume of frontal rain in the south.
d) La Nina has peaked but SE is still dry.
e) Dr Love - Has stated that the chances of winter rain later in the year had diminished historically. The prospect of frontal rain for southern Australia is not as good as it was 20 to 30 years ago.
f) Latest climate modelling is suggesting that the rainfall in southern Australia will be reduced in a greenhouse world as greenhouse gas concentrations rise.
This article and others can be found in the Sydney Morning Herald - Science and Technology / Environment Section on their website at smh.com.au
Harley Pearman
-
Well though it has been cloudy, March has been fairly dry and cool so far, almost like an early to mid autumn weather pattern you see in mid April.
-
John do you have a link to that research article you posted above? As for rainwater tanks - well that's another story up here, I'd love for every house to have one but complacency runs rampant when the dams are constantly at 90% even during the 6 month dry season. A bane of my discussions everywhere. Such a waste of water as we don't have guttering at all on any houses up here, it all ends up in the storm water and out to sea.....
-
Strange weather in Melbourne today - it started with an unforecasted rain shower, and ended up a very warm Autumn day! - fickle is the modern weather.
At least 1mm made it to the gauge in the short sharp shower that ocurred in Box-Hill at about 10-10.30am this morning - a welcome sight to anyone in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne! Still... if La-Nina is going to have her way, we hope the winter rain season actually arrives this year as the dam capacity here is dropping by the day (at last check it was 35.3%).
Big Pete
(or Coach Capt. Big Pete now!! [g])
-
I think fickle is not the word for it, I think weird is better! !-) Today has been cloudy at times, but very warm and humid - around 32deg here, but very muggy with no rain or storms to speak of. Must be a trough lingering near here, as i think it is causing the storms in Sydney.
Melbourne is expected to get very hot over the next 4 to 5 days, with temps exceeding 35deg for all 5 days, and YES, NO RAIN IN SIGHT (sigh).
Even March normally gets a good rain, but not this year - I'm wondering if the La-Nina pattern has been ignoring Melbourne and just letting us suffer the drought induced El-Nino for a little bit longer! I though a La-Nina event was supposed to bring rain down south - but it is excluding Melbourne (and to some degree Adelaide and Hobart) too often. I would think it may not be long before Level 4 water restrictions will need to be enforced here. Grey water is keeping the garden alive though - at least that is one good thing!
Big Pete (very parched).
-
Hello
I have had a look at rainfall figures for Victoria for February and the summer in general which is available on the Bureau of Meteorology website. Quite a contrast. In particular:-
a) NE Victoria finished with satisfactory rains.
b) Eastern Victoria mainly around Gippsland had satisfactory rains.
c) Northern / North West and western Victoria had unsatisfactory rains. That is much of Victoria did not receive ample or adequate summer rainfall to arrest the water shortages.
Big Pete, your observations of the continuing dry are correct. An article I pulled out of Science and Technology / Environment Section of the Sydney Morning Herald dated March 4 2008 titled "Water Everywhere except the Murray" provides additional material. In particular:-
a) Water storages in the Murray River region (That includes northern Victoria) are so low that the 2008/2009 irrigation season could start with zero allocation again.
b) Basin inflows in 2007/2008 are double those of 2006/07 but they are only 25% of the long term average.
c) Hume Dam at Albury is still only 16% and with the dam being so low, the irrigation year could be disastrous again.
While some above average rains occurred in parts of NE Victoria, there was little runoff because the ground was so dry.
There has been a general easing of the drought but there has been inadequate rainfalls to make up for the deficiencies that have occurred over several years.
The Murray Darling Basin Commission has painted a bleak outlook despite La Nina rains bringing above average rains across much of the basin over summer.
There are some very good coloured maps and summaries for the state including graphs that can be located by going into the Media Section and Climate Summaries for Victoria within the Bureau of Meteorology website at www.bom.gov.au
Harley Pearman
-
Hi all, just following on from the split gen weather thread (which i can't find on my machine) - just an update to Melbourne weather for the past 3 days.
It has been unbearably hot here the last 3-4 days with temps above 30 on each of those days (including today) - thur was 38, frid was 39, sat was supposed to be a cooler change day - ended up with 35, and so far today it is 37 (expected to exceed forecasted maximum again) - no rain on any of these days. Hot northerly winds have been whipping up, and RH's have been as low as 9% friday - very fire conducive! For all the storm days that occur, sometimes the fire days keep happening.
No rainfall so far, just 1.6mm this month (allegedly the lowest rainfall month in Melbourne each year for the past 5 years). I don't think there will be much rainfall before tuesday's cold front is due, and even then, not much on the horizon. Dam levels here are down to 33.7% and going lower by the day.
Big Pete
(needing relief from the heat!)
Welcome to the Big Southern Dry!
-
Hello
Further to Big Pete's discussion on the weather in Melbourne, I have before me some amazing temperature facts for the month of March for Melbourne City to add here. This is from 1/3/2008 to 17/3/2008 and taken from BOM - March Daily weather observations 2008. It is clear that Melbourne has had a hot spell but unless someone can advise otherwise, then this would be unusual.
It has reached 30 degrees in Melbourne city on 8 days so far this month but on 5 of those days, the temperature has topped 38 degrees Celsius being the 10, 13, 14, 16 and 17. It appears on the 17/3/2008, the temperature reached 40 degrees in parts of Melbourne such as Avalon - 41.3C, Geelong Airport - 40.7C and Laverton - 40.2C.
I am not aware of such a high number of 38 degree days occurring during the month of March for this city. I am not sure if this is a first or simply a rare event as I have never looked at Melbourne's weather statistics. It is certainly something unusual that I have noted. I am aware of a cool change that will certainly cool the city.
Further, the same heatwave has affected Adelaide and this city has recorded 15 days straight of 30 degree temperatures and it has hit 37.9 degrees or higher on at least 12 of those days from 5 to 16 (I have not checked the figures for 17/3/08).
This city has just set an Australian capital city record for the most number of days above 35 degrees in a row which is now 12 (Previous capital city record was Perth with 10 days set in February 1988).
Another amazing record that stands out in all of this is that on the night of 13/3/2008 and early 14/3/2008, the overnight minimum fell to 30.2 degrees Celsius. This is a new March minimum record for the city which was recorded at 6.35 am. (Brief summary from the media release titled - More South Australian temperature records tumble as heatwave continues - Date 17/3/2008).
Compare that for Sydney city in which the temperature only reached 30 degrees on 2 days this summer just passed.
During this period, I have noted that March to date where I live is currently warmer than that of February and it has reached 30 degrees on 6 days so far this month. This is more than what occurred during the months of November, December and February. However, the warmth is nowhere near as extreme as that of Melbourne and Adelaide.
Harley Pearman
-
Harley,
I cannot be certain but I was of the opinion that February 1983 brough some very high temperatures and possibly March as well. Can anyone verify this? This was during the period prior to the drought breaking rains if I am not mistaken.
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
Hello
Further to Jimmy's reply 18/3/2008, I have found some statistical evidence of previous hot weather occurring in Melbourne during the month of March.
It appears that 1985 was a hot March as well. It is stated that there were 9 days when it reached 30 degrees in Melbourne. That figure appears to be the record for the most number of days when it has reached 30 degrees for that city.
It took 21 years (Being March 2006) before there was another hot March. There were 8 days during March 2006 when it reached 30 degrees.
March 1983 was mentioned but at the moment, I have not been able to find anything.
March 2008 has now produced 9 days when it has reached 30 degrees for that city so that 1985 figure has been equalled.
I also saw a one day temperature record for March being 38.7 Celsius set on 22 March 1998. Of course that was until 14 and 16 March 2008 when it reached 39.2 and 39.1 Celsius respectively thus beating that old record.
I found the above on a BOM archive weather site after typing into Google - Weather Statistics for Melbourne - March 1983. You will find various weather websites and archives by doing this and I just scrolled through some sites and came across these statistics.
In addition to researching the above statistics, I found out that Melbourne endured its hottest March night ever (Beating the March 3 1988 record) with a minimum of 26.9 degrees at 7.30 am (Source - Melbourne suffers warmest March night on record. The age, 18/3/08). This is quite amazing because the temperatures rose to 30 to 32 degrees by 10.30 am only to cool off by 12 noon to 23.4 degrees which is the City's lowest temperature for the day (Source - BOM Latest weather observations for Melbourne 18/3/2008 - Up to 1.25 pm).
The same newspaper article (The Age) has also stated that Adelaide has just endured 15 days in a row with temperatures of 35 degrees or higher and confirming a new Australian capital city weather record for - The most number of days in a row above 35 degrees for an Australian Capital city.
The above only partially answers Jimmy's previous post but it appears that I may be able to find more where the first set of statistics came from. I will keep looking.
Harley Pearman
-
Harley,
Man, I should look to you if I ever need weather stats, you are a stats machine!!
Harley is right. The night before's temp (monday) was a record high min temp for the day, and yes there are days in Melbourne where the mins and maxs seem to topsy turvey around a bit - eg I do remember a cool change arriving one day some years ago and the min was recorded at about 24c and the maximum for the day only reached 17 or 18c - something akin to a reversal of the norm. This does occur alot when cold fronts arrive during the early to mid morning after the previous day had stifling heat. Amazing that the recent cold front (cool change) did not yield any rain at all whatsoever - and it is one thing in Melbourne we are beginning to miss out on.
Also, I did hear an article on a major television station news report (not sure if it was 9 or 10), that once we approach the autumn equinox, the la-nina effect will break down. Does anyone else have any info on this, and is it true at all that only half of Australia was affected by this effect, and quite possibly the southern half (eg Melbourne, Adelaide, Perth and Hobart - for capital city areas) have actually experienced a more closer to el-nino event? Your thoughts on a different thread perhaps?
Big Pete.
(glad to be cooled down, but still thirsty for rain here - raingauge to date for March 2008 in Mooroolbark - 1.4mm).
-
Hello
Big Pete, further to your post, I am reading and hearing the same thing as well. I have read in one article that the La Nina effect will begin to break down soon. Some have said middle of Autumn and others have said the latter stages of Autumn. I am aware that the La Nina has peaked.
This is one area I will be watching closely especially for Victoria and southern NSW and rainfalls that occur. The reason is that rainfall models are still pointing to below average rainfalls for southern Australia and with this part of Australia still in drought, the prognosis is not good.
I am currently reading a superb climate book for Australia titled "We are the Weather Makers" by Tim Flannery 2007. He has stated on Page 78 that "As greenhouse gases build up in our atmosphere, we will experience persistent El Nino like conditions".
I am pondering that statement and whether the current conditions being experienced in southern Australia is a sign or a precursor of the future climate for southern Australia. More research is required.
Further to this, I have noticed that since March has begun up to 19/3/2008, the incidence of intense rainfalls has decreased.
Harley Pearman
-
The BoM has released a special report on the prolonged March heatwave:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs15.pdf
Plenty of records set there !
-
Hello
Further to my previous post, I am unable to find historical data on day to day conditions for March 1983 in Melbourne to make a comparison with March 2008. However, I have found some historical facts worth mentioning.
It appears that the summer period of 1897 / 1898 (111 years ago) was exceptionally hot with over 25 days above 35 degrees which is still a record for the most number of days above 35 degrees for a summer season in this city. (Encyclopedia of Melbourne) and (Climate of Melbourne, Stern 2005).
The highest all time day temperature record for March was 41.7 degrees Celsius set in March 1940. Thus the two 39 degree days just experienced are records for recent times but not historical records.
It appears that the first 2 weeks of March 1983 were hot and dry but the rains arrived some time after mid March of that year which ended the heat. I could not find any new one day weather records being set or an unusually high incidence of 30 degree days or significant events occurring to compare.
That leaves the years 1897/98, 1940, 1985, 2006 and 2008 as interesting years for unusual Melbourne heat or hot spells to look at for March.
However, one will notice a greater incidence of unusual heat occurring quite recently during the month of March and there are climate graphs and temperature summaries available showing a slight but steady rise in Melbourne's average temperatures in recent times.
As for rainfall patterns, that is open for debate. A trend towards a wetter period from the 1950s until recent years is evident with a decline of recent years due to drought. When the historical trends are looked at ie from 1900 to 2007, there does not seem to be specific trends in either direction. However, the recent ongoing drought is showing up as a trend and a decline is observed. This is one area to watch.
Harley Pearman
-
Hi all,
looks like summer has finally left Melbourne for 2007/08 season. There is a forecast on BoM of some reasonable falls of rain expected in Melbourne and western Vic over the next 5 to 6 days, so hopefully they get it right this time.
Big Pete
-
G'day all.
Sunday 23rd March 2008
Looks like the season is changing here. The rain is on its way at long last. Also the prospects of severe thunderstorms is on the increase with a developing low pressure trough to the west/north west of Vic. At last report about 25 mins ago, the BoM issued a severe thunderstorm warning for flash flooding for the Mallee and Wimmera districts of NW Vic. This included areas between Mildura, Horsham and Swan Hill. At this stage a light cell has formed between Mildura and Horsham - worth keeping an eye on, see the BoM Vic radar (http://mirror.bom.gov.au/products/IDR023.shtml). If this link does not work, i apologise. I'm still new at the links and pics thing.
The temp here has also left the 30deg level behind for the next 6 months by the look of the temp change for the next 5 days (expected to be 27, 23, 20, 18 and 18) with some rain expected on all five days. Certainly a change to the current pattern of late. Finally the rains are coming.....
Big Pete
-
Wednesday 26th March 2008
So far the cooler weather has brought quite a few heavy showers today - it is currently 6.24pm here and it is dark and grey outside - 20mm in the gauge today - which is quite substantial given the recent drought conditions. Its nice to see the dry spell is broken, and some welcome rains have returned.
The other good news about this front and the previous storm system is that it has dumped a healthy 25mm of rain in the Central and NE catchment areas - bumping up the water storage by 0.6% to 36% (not much to some but very good for others). More rain is needed for this area to return to some normality.
I hear there have been some good storms firing around the NE edge in Vic / SW edge of NSW - keep an eye on the movement of this front and associated trough as it has the potential to provide more opportunities to storm chase at this stage.
Big Pete.
-
Thursday 27th March 2008
Just to let those know who want to know - as of 10am this morning, after quite a wet night in Mooroolbark, my rain gauge showed a healthy 33mm of rain had fallen here in 12 hrs. That is much needed and welcomed rainfall - and according to BoM, there is more on the way. Also I have heard there has been some snow on the Alpine peaks here too.
Big Pete
(now shivering!)
-
Victoria's recent rain event - 29/3/2008
Could the recent rain event in Victoria be called 'The Autumn Break" which has been largely missing in recent years?
The Autumn break is usually defined as the first rain event after summer in which a good solid soaking rain event occurs. Usually this should occur in March or April. It should be accompanied with good general soaking rains across a wide area.
Looking at the rainfall records for the past week for Victoria from the BOM rainfall statistics from numerous rain gauges around the state, it will depend on the locality. Some areas recorded reasonable falls but other areas received minimal falls.
I noted that the upland areas of NE Victoria received some good falls due to orographic effect but the agricultural regions away from the hills received low totals, too low to have an impact on water supplies.
It is interesting to see how Melbourne fared. The north eastern suburbs and even the city received good falls but the NW and west and parts of the southern city areas did not. Some sample tallies for Melbourne for the 7 days from Saturday 22 March to Saturday 29 March include:-
Melbourne City 64 mm, Prahran 82 mm, Melbourne Airport 18 mm (Located NW), Altona 36 mm, Rosebud 18 mm, Scoresby 9 mm, Morabbin 23 mm.
The variations are large and the Dandenong Ranges to the east did influence totals that fell.
This was the picture right across the state of Victoria during the same period as shown in the samples below.
NW Victoria
Mildura 12 mm, Ouyen 3 mm, Redcliffs 17 mm.
Mallee
Falls of 0.6 mm to 23 mm featured.
North Wimmera
Falls of 0.2 to 22 mm featured.
South Wimmera
Some very good falls fell including Ben Nevis 37 mm and Stawell 44 mm.
Lower North
Rains were mostly poor or lighter such as Echuca 6 mm, Kerang 28 mm, Boort 13 mm. This was common throughout.
Upper north.
Rains were mostly light to moderate such as Bendigo 12 mm and nearby Lake Eppalock 8 mm, Shepparton 25 mm, Tatura 15 mm, Yarrawonga 23 mm.
Similar falls occurred in the surrounding agricultural lands and wheatbelt.
North east.
Similar to upper north for the lowlands such as the Albury region, 26 mm but centres closer to the NE ranges did well due to orographic influences such as Corryong 50 mm, Euroa 27 mm, Tallangatta 29 mm, Dartmouth 41 mm, bright 34 mm and Mt Buffalo 48 mm.
Gippsland
Falls ranged from light to very good, anywhere between 6 and 46 mm.
Some places did well and the event could be called the Autumn break but in many others, the recent event could not be called that. The sample provided shows that rainfalls were patchy throughout the state ranging from very good to poor. Given that many centres in northern Victoria went without rain for up to 40 days until this week, the recent event would have made little impression on the dry gripping the state in some regions.
Harley Pearman
-
I'm hoping to post some pics - please note this is not something i have done before, so if it doesn't work out please p/m or skype me.
Big Pete
-
For those interested in my last post - i'm glad it worked! These were pictures from the first part of the rainfall that occurred last week in north-eastern suburban Melbourne - taken from a 3 Skypephone camera, from near Greensborough.
Notice the cloud structure in the first pic - the second pic was the rainband as it hit the suburban streets in NE Melbourne. That day the temp plummeted from 26c before the pics to 15c during the taking of these pics.
Not bad quality from a camera-phone camera though! (just a 2 megapixel camera).
Big Pete
-
Monday 1st April
Happy April fools day for the comedians out there!
It has been a clear day today here in Mooroolbark, some light clouds, and a very brisk o/n low of 1c overnight (definetly blanket weather). March 2008 was considered the warmest month in some 9 years here, but thanks to the last 5 or so days of rainfall, the mean average rainfall was exceeded for the month (normally 39mm - we ended up here with 48mm), which is the first time this exceeding has happened for 6 months here. Much welcome and needed rainfall in the catchments close to here - Sugarloaf Dam got 36mm, Silvan Dam 47mm, Maroondah Dam 39mm - but it needs more follow up rain (due tomorrow night and Wed) to penetrate the water storages (ie create runoff). Also the last 7 days have been much cooler (a sign of the change of seasons?) here than the previous 3 weeks before that. And if the start of April is anything to go by, then the colder change due in the next 2 days will see the max temp here plummet below 16c for the first time this year. It could be a cold winter on the way.
Maybe a chance of snow in the Alps?
Big Pete
-
I have been notified of a severe weather event creeping up on the SE of the continent - Adelaide will feel the first effects of this event with low daytime temps and very high winds, followed by Vic with high winds (in excess of 120kph gusts possible before the cold front arrives - even higher at 150kph expected in the Alpine district). See the warnings issued by BoM - http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDV28000.txt
There is possibility of small hail and thunder with this system - advised to be the cold front and associated low from ex-tropical cyclone Pancho. It is a mean mongrel, and may provide good pics for blokes like John Allen (hopefully better armed with good cameras than my busted camera-phone), if he is available. I want to get some pics, but it depends on my unreliable camera-phone at the mo. Anyway, I will keep all posted.
And for those in NSW awaiting this system - some storms are possible with this front, but little rain, and loads of wind.
Big Pete
-
Yes - not too often you see such wording in the warnings: 'widespread damaging winds'
VICTORIAN SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Widespread Damaging Winds
For people in the all Victorian districts.
Issued at 6:55 am EDT on Wednesday 2 April 2008
A strong cold front will enter western Victoria late this morning, reaching
Central regions mid to late afternoon and the far east at night. An intense low
will form west of Tasmania then move rapidly southeast.
Northerly winds are expected to increase during the morning to average 55 to 80
km/h over northern areas and Gippsland and to 70 to 100 km/h over remaining
southern and mountain regions. Widespread gusts of 90 to 110 km/h are expected
with localised gusts to 130km/h over southwestern and central parts of the State
by late morning, moving into West Gippsland by afternoon. Maximum gusts around
150 km/h are likely over Alpine regions.
West to southwest wind squalls to 90km/h are likely following the front.
-
Also its not just Vic getting the worst of the weather over the next couple of days - SA is expecting 90kph wind gusts, TAS up to 150kph gusts and S NSW up to 125kph gusts.
This system (cold front and low) is intense and includes left overs from ex-TC Pancho - a storm that did reach Cat4 status last week.
John Allen - I think this system follows the principles of your bomb cyclone analysis.
Big Pete
-
Rainfall deficiency deepens across drought affected areas
Further to my ongoing discussion regarding the current drought and rainfall trends in inland SW NSW and Victoria, a disturbing trend emerged during the month of March.
Despite the La Nina impact, the area of NSW in drought increased by 2% to 42.9% and SW NSW was hit by the rainfall shortfall.
In particular, March was a drier month but many areas outside the slopes and hills registered below to well below average rainfalls. Major places like Albury, Wagga Wagga, Griffith, and smaller towns such as The Rock, Narrandera, Rankin springs, Hay, Finley, Coolamon and many others typically recorded 50% of average rainfalls for the month, some more, some less. This is the wheat sheep belt area.
A smattering of places such as Culcairn, Henty, Howlong and Grenfell came close to receiving average rainfalls (Which is usually low by normal standards). Places east and closer to the hills and ranges did better while places further inland such as Broken Hill and Mildura were typically dry.
The result was a deterioration in the drought situation. The South West slopes and other places on the slopes and plains and the Riverina went backwards and a few areas plunged back into drought.
Looking at the rainfall trends and plots prepared by the Bureau of Meteorology from 1 April to 31 2006 to March 2008, a "Severe rainfall deficiency" still exists across the SW slopes of NSW and northern Victoria which covers the wheatbelt and sheep grazing country. This severe deficiency also covers Melbourne.
The situation in much of Victoria is similar. The far east being Gippsland is still OK and has been improving but many areas are still dry.
The last 6 months (1 October 2007 to 31 March 2008) seems to show much of Victoria as having "Average rainfalls" at best but underneath that, the critical long term deficiencies remain.
During the month of March, NE Victoria averaged 25 to 50 mm of rain but this was roughly 50% of expected totals. An isolated area centred on the higher peaks averaged 50 to 100 mm of rain.
Generally Melbourne averaged 25 to 50 mm although it is noted that some localities did better.
The north and north west and a large portion of the west received poor rainfalls being between the 10 and 25 mm range.
The south west coastal areas did better receiving between 25 and 50 mm.
No area of the state experienced average or above average falls. Falls across the state are described as average to below average.
The departures range from 10 to 25 mm below average for the whole of the western, northern and NW regions and 25 to 50 mm below average for the SE portions.
This has contributed to a serious situation across much of the state and a large portion is still experiencing long term 'Severe rainfall deficiencies".
On the flip side models indicate a continued wet period for eastern NSW and Queensland but less so for the western half including a significant portion of Victoria.
Harley Pearman
-
No much to report on - just cooler days and cold nights - got 5 mm on monday, but apart from that - nothing else to write home about. ::)
-
The weather has been extremely quiet in VIC of late - no storms to report - just cold foggy/smoggy nights and warm clear days. It was forecasted for some rain to hit here over the long weekend - which will help the gardens here.
Big Pete
-
Looks a lot more interesting for you from Saturday onwards. I had noticed the lack of any weather warnings in VIC the past several days - and a few complaints about the smoke - nice satpic of it here:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/FAS_SEAustralia3/2008114/FAS_SEAustralia3.2008114.terra.1km.jpg
-
If the BoM forecast is right (and most times they are not) - Mike B, then you may be right - there is talk of a slow-moving cold-air cold front moving in during saturday - providing very cold temps, small hail (prob h1-h2 on harley's hail scale) and cold winds - a taste of winter, so to speak. There may be some snowfalls in the higher alps too. Maybe some storms possible - worth me getting the camera-video-phone up and running.
Big Pete
-
Big Pete
I have been looking at Victoria's weather situation as well. Patterns have stagnated and a persistent high pressure cell has resulted in an extremely dry April to date across large areas of the state.
There are many centres in northern Victoria and SW NSW where it has rained on just one day and some centres have had 2 mm of rain so far this month which is unusually low.
That may change this weekend. An interesting cold front looks set to move across the state. However, there is a second front and an associated cold pool of air following it. That should generate showers with small hail and even some thunder. The cold air mass following the second front would be capable of producing light snow on the NE ranges.
Some rainfall models show at least 10 to 25 mm of rain for parts of NE Victoria.
Whatever happens, this cold front will end the stable weather pattern that has become established across this state for much of this month.
Harley Pearman
-
Strong cold front and associated cold weather in Victoria:
Further to my earlier post, the first cold front has moved across Victoria but brought very light rainfalls. Many northern centres received no rainfall and rainfall across Melbourne was very light and patchy ie 0.2 to 2 mm range when I looked. The highest total from that was a little over 7 mm at Portland Airport in SW Victoria. Other totals were much lighter.
A much stronger front is entering western Victoria (12.30 pm 26/4/2008). There is a more solid band of showers coming with this currently situated over the far western and south western areas of the state.
However, the air mass behind this front is very interesting. A large area of speckled cloud and scattered showers is following it which clearly indicates the presence of cold air drawn up from the Southern Ocean.
Warnings have now been issued for Sunday and Monday especially for southern and mountain areas being a sheep grazers alert for farmers and an alert for rough seas.
It is likely that southern and mountain areas will experience showers and small hail (H0 type) and even isolated cold weather thunderstorms.
I have noted that temperatures for Melbourne are expected to dip to maximums of 15 and 16 degrees or thereabouts throughout this event.
Harley Pearman
-
I did hear from a radio news bulletin that there is a chance of about 20-30cm of snow falling on the higher peaks of NE Vic Alps sometime tomorrow and monday. Looks like winter is coming in early.
And yes Harley, I am anticipating this one - been very little if any rain out of the first front - which weakened as it passed thru the bight - got some verger and a few spots on the face last night whilst walking the dog. And also the temps here have dropped remarkably today from the last 5 days - the wind-chill factor is dropping the air temp to the teens now. Plenty of cloud around, and strong breezes are blowing, but i think the real stormy change is still to reach the eastern half of Melbourne.
Rugging up now
Big Pete
-
Saturday 26 April 2008
So far the vigours of the cold front expected in the south east region have yet to live up to its reputation - there has been steady light rain here since dusk, but the wind has actually eased from earlier today - only about 3-4 mm in the gauge here at the moment (still raining). It is cold however, but no as cold in wind-chill as the last 3 mornings have been (the frosty foggy ones).
No storms in sight yet but still hoping.
Big Pete
-
G'day everyone, I'm Sab and new here, I live in Melb so let's have a thread where we can talk general weather conditions and forecasts in Melbourne and Vic
cloudy, 11ºC at 10:30am! Had some rain overnight.
-
SAB
Yes it is good to finally get some rain again - 13mm in Mooroolbark last night.
Big Pete
-
Cold change and rainfall for Victoria 27/4/2008
A strong cold front continues to make its way across Victoria however rainfall continues to be patchy to moderate depending on location.
Best Rainfall for 24 hours from 9 am 26/4/2008 to 9 am 27/4/2008.
Looking at rainfall distribution for Melbourne, the city's western and northern suburbs received light falls of between 0.8 and 9 mm such as 7 mm at the airport and 8 mm in the city. The eastern, north eastern and south eastern suburbs received more moderate falls of between 12 and 18 mm such as 12 mm at Scoresby. Orographic rainfall is evident along the Dandenong Ranges.
The main cloud mass is currently over NE Victoria (1 pm - 2 pm). Moderate rain has occurred on the highest peaks of Victoria such as Falls Creek 16 mm, Mt Buller 26 mm, Mt Hotham 27 mm (Highest in the state) and 22 mm at Harrietville. Albury received 12 mm, Beechworth and Lake Hume received 9 mm each.
Away from the ranges, rainfall was light in NW Victoria (Mildura 4 mm and Horsham 5 mm). Western areas received light to moderate falls such as 16 mm at Portland Airport, Cape Nelson 21 mm and Dunns Hill 15 mm. Falls of 5 mm were common around centres such as Horsham and Stawall.
The northern plains received only light falls such as 6 mm at Bendigo and 6 mm at Echuca. Many other centres received lighter falls typically 4 - 6 mm.
Certainly not a significant rain event. Away from the main cloud mass currently over NE Victoria, some showers are occurring over southern and mountain districts in the cold SW airstream. One or two of these may contain small hail but this is currently not significant.
However, this is a cold change and a sheep farmers warning is in force for southern and mountain districts. Conditions will moderate Monday and a new high pressure cell should establish itself over the state Tuesday - Wednesday.
Harley Pearman
-
that 4mm in Mildura just quadrupled their month to date total! Very cold there aswell, hasn't even reached 12ºC as of 2pm.
Nothing interesting here, just cloud
-
Sunday 27 April 2008
Thanks to the moderator for clarifying the post - it makes it easier for those who live in the southern states to get some input and leave some output (lol).
Today has been a very cold day here in the outer-east suburban Melbourne. 13mm of rain has fallen here today - and just very recently (7.40-8.00pm) a small severe thunder cell passed to my north - producing 2mm of rain (and its raining still in Balwyn according to my father) and at least 8-10 CGs - a few strobe flashes of 3-4 strikes in one bolt happened to the NE of my position - looks like a red-light camera on heat! (lol) - this storm should have been warned only that it was short-lived (about 25mins).
The temp hasnt even climbed above 13deg C today - very bitter cold weather for late April - especially when it was 25deg C just a few days ago. This cold front has pools of cold air stretching from the Bight, through SA where reports of high winds and blizzards have been made in the Adelaide Hills, and some parts of SA incl Adelaide have had their coldest day in 26 years.
And some of Vic's Alps are enjoying 20-30cm of snow (1-1.25 inches in old scale). Early winter present!
Going back to sit in front of the heater.
Big Pete (brrrrrrrrr)
-
Having been sitting on the north coast of NSW for the last few days and enjoying some very nice weather yesterday and today, I saw on the news tonight 15cm of snow on the Victorian Alps. And tomorrow's forecast for Orange is a temperature range of 1 overnight to 7 tomorrow. That's getting chilly for April!
As I drive south tomorrow I will be moving from an area with a forecast max of 26 to a forecast max of 19 and getting windier as I go.
-
Sunday 27 April 2008
And some of Vic's Alps are enjoying 20-30cm of snow (1-1.25 inches in old scale). Early winter present!
Hey Pete - isn't that 8-10 inches of snow ? Very nice fall. You can have the cold days - not ready for that yet :)
Btw: feel free to start new threads in the 'significant weather events and storm chasing' section of the forum for events like this one.
-
Better get down near the coast - this is the VIC BoM forecast that is available to emergency services only.
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
A cold airmass aloft is crossing the State today. The centre of the cold pool will migrate from west central Victoria this morning to reach the northeast later today. There will be a risk of thunderstorms along the path of this airmass, particularly where flow is onshore near the coast and dewpoints can remain higher. Some thunderstorms may become organised and severe on the back edge of the cold pool where shear is maximised, producing brief waterspouts or tornadoes near the coast and damaging wind gusts. Elsewhere in the risk area thunderstorms will be brief. Hail is likely with any thunderstorm which develops, however due to limited buoyancy, only small hail is likely.
-
For the past 24 hours 9 am 27/4/2008 to 9 am 28/4/2008, rainfalls tapered off especially in northern Victoria. While some further very light falls from showers fell over some northern areas, the best falls fell in southern and mountain districts.
The best falls were 26 mm at Cape Otway, 23 mm at Weeaproinah, 21 mm at Biggara and 20 mm at Apollo Bay and Forrest for this period. Other falls were lighter and most were very light.
I saw television reports of snow at some mountain resorts in NE Victoria as well.
While not related to Victoria, but worth a mention, the cold air mass pushed into NSW as well and some light snow fell around Mt Canobolas near Orange (Central Tablelands) which has turned out to be a rare April snow event.
Temperatures were well below average and it is a rare event for the month of April to see a maximum temperature of 12 degrees at places such as Albury and 11 degrees at some nearby areas. Maximum temperatures in NW Victoria were around 15 to 17 degrees Celsius. Many places scored between 11 and 13 degrees Celsius and some areas were colder.
This event can be regarded as the first winter cold spell for southern NSW and Victoria for 2008.
At around 1 pm 28/4/2008, I observed on radar some moderate shower cells (Quite possibly cold weather thunder showers) moving NE across the Dandenongs but these were not penetrating too far inland before weakening.
Harley Pearman
-
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST...
...some thunderstorms may become organised and severe on the back edge of the cold pool where shear is maximised, producing brief waterspouts or tornadoes near the coast and damaging wind gusts. Elsewhere in the risk area thunderstorms will be brief. Hail is likely with any thunderstorm which develops, however due to limited buoyancy, only small hail is likely.
Good forecast, but none eventuated near Melb coast - maybe more towards Bass Strait may have been some events, but the only storm was the night before last, and that was inland. And it was very brief.
Big Pete
-
Coldest April day for parts of NE and Northern Victoria since 1960
Following the cold outbreak across the state of Victoria, I have read an article in the Border Mail 29/4/2008 stating that large areas of northern and north east Victoria endured its coldest April weather since 22 April 1960, especially when some centres recorded maximum temperatures of 10 degrees Celsius on Sunday.
To make matters worse overnight minimums early 29/4/2008 in many centres fell to near freezing such as Shepparton 0.8 Celsius, Echuca 0.7 Celsius, Albury 0.6 Celsius and Wagga Wagga in southern NSW for comparison, 0.5 Degrees Celsius.
Most centres in this region endured this type of overnight cold.
The very cold minimum April temperatures were a result of clear skies, maximum cooling and heat loss overnight and calm conditions following the passage of the cold front.
Harley Pearman
-
Below average rainfall and drought - Victoria - April 2008
Continuing this topic of drought and rainfall (2008) for Victoria, it is advised that the month of April 2008 was drier in many areas across the state than during March 2008 and rainfall deficiencies have worsened.
A report by BOM (May 2 2008) shows long term rainfall deficiencies over a two year period from May 1 2006 to April 30 2008 steadily worsening. The worst affected areas is still the Dandenongs east of Melbourne and in a band stretching from Melbourne NE through North East Victoria and into southern and south west New South Wales roughly north and west of the Great Dividing Range. This area includes the northern plains of the state. Rainfall deficiencies is still prevalent in most of western Victoria and north west Victoria around Swan Hill and Mildura.
An area just to the east of Melbourne is still classified as "Lowest on record". Severe rainfall deficiencies still covers many areas and farming regions surrounding urban centres such as Bendigo, Shepparton, Echuca, Albury, Wangaratta and Benalla.
These regions and others suffered through another month of below average rainfalls and so far Autumn has been dry with long periods between rainfall events. It is worthy to note that the drought affected regions have been receiving one rainfall event a month for March and April but the event is overall producing falls that are patchy and below average.
Only Gippsland is satisfactory and out of the danger.
The rest of the state urgently needs above average soaking rain to eliminate the deficits and to replenish moisture and water in dams and soils.
A full report of the current drought situation across the state is available in the Media Section of the Bureau of Meteorology web site which also has links to other web sites concerning the drought and weather specifically for Victoria.
Harley Pearman
Posted on: 02 May 2008, 07:29:27 PM
Another big dry forecast May 10 2008:
Continuing on my discussion of the drought gripping inland SE NSW and Victoria, I have come across a frightening article in the Sydney Morning Herald titled "Another Big Dry forecast for irrigators".
It is stated that Autumn has seen a return to near record low river inflows and history has proved that a dry autumn usually means that the rest of the year will be dry.
The La Nina weather pattern brought sometimes flooding rains to parts of NSW and Queensland over summer but there is now suggestion that eastern Australia was drifting back towards an El Nino where dry conditions dominate.
It is unlikely farmers will see the extensive rains needed to cancel out the deficiencies of the past 6 years and refill dams especially in the southern half of the basin (Victoria and inland NSW).
In the Autumn of 1989,a La Nina delivered an average 267 mm of rain across the basin but so far this autumn, there has been an average of 30 mm.
Dr Coughlan has stated that we had a La Nina but this time, we are not getting the turnaround in rainfall associated with La Nina.
Wendy Craik (Murray Darling Basin Commission) has suggested that climate change is besetting the southern basin (Victoria / southern NSW) far sooner than forecast and greatly reduced flows could be a permanent state of affairs.
Dams are now at their lowest level in the Snowy Mountains since construction and permission has been granted to expand cloud seeding experiments and programs designed to increase snowfalls and inflows into dams.
Sydney Morning Herald 10/5/2008 in smh.com.au
Comments:
This is what I have been observing as well based on rainfall data. Rainfall is well down despite the recent La Nina and there are large areas in Victoria and southern NSW that have not recovered.
In addition, cloud seeding has been occurring on a limited scale in the higher areas although I am not sure how successful that has been.
Harley Pearman
-
Harley
This is one area I will agree with you on. The "big dry" here is getting worse, even though the surface temp here is colder than average. We (Vic and SA's) definetly need more rain, and more follow up rain to even break the drought here. At last report on weatherchannel (Foxtel) showed 96% of Vic is still drought affected and 98% of SA as well. I think the dry will continue for some time to come, with only sporadic rainfall coming in during winter at this stage. This depends on the antarctic cold-fronts and where they make landfall.
Big Pete
-
Victoria - May and Autumn Rainfall patterns 2008
Looking at the following websites and various rainfall maps:-
Department of Primary Industries 2008 (Victoria).
Bureau of Meteorology.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/rain_maps.cgi.
It is generally accepted that May 2008 was the driest May in record for much of Australia which has resulted in a continuation of many rainfall deficiencies.
The Murray Darling Basin (When rainfall is averaged across various centres) has just recorded the fourth driest Autumn on record. In much of this area, the continuing dry pattern is without precedent. Additionally, following a wet summer in many eastern areas, Autumn overall was allot drier.
Large areas of Australia continue to suffer rainfall deficiencies. Southern Australia including much of Victoria has had a poor start to the southern wet season.
In Victoria, May 2008 was mostly dry except for western and central areas where near normal rains occurred. Overall, Autumn was drier than average.
Rainfall in many inland areas and northern parts of the state were 40 to 50% of averages only. Regional analysis - Department of Primary Industries (Summary Dry Seasonal Conditions in Rural Victoria June 5 - 2008):-
Mallee - Had 14 to 20 mm mid May and subsoil is variable but minimal. Rain needed.
Wimmera - Had 20 mm mid May and a dry winter outlook is not good. Need rain.
North Central - All areas need good rain.
Northern Irrigation Areas - Poor rains have lead to poor soil moisture.
North East - Many areas have not had adequate rain for a break. Some greening has occurred in a few areas but rain is needed.
East Gippsland - Ok at the moment but good rains needed.
West and south Gippsland - Ok at the moment but more rain needed.
Port Phillip - Need more rain.
South West - Need follow up rain.
The consensus is - The state of Victoria needs a good rain event.
Recent media headlines I found:-
Eternal drought - Border Mail 10/5/2008. There is no sign at the moment that the drought will end and some are starting to say it will be more permanent.
Drought could get worse - Sunraysia Daily (Mildura). The southern Murray Darling is in deep strife with an increasing likelihood that drought and water crises will extend to the end off the year.
NSW Drought
The figures for May shows that 48.4% of the state has slipped into drought and another 23.6% is marginal. The whole inland SW portion including Wagga Wagga, Albury, Griffith, Ivanhoe to Broken Hill is in drought which extends into Victoria.
Victoria - Rainfall anomalies 1 December 2007 to 31 May 2008
The Bureau of Meteorology has changed its website in relation to obtaining data on rainfall and now it is much easier to work out average anomalies using a series of maps.
Northern Victoria - Rainfall was down on average by 50 mm.
Central areas - Rainfall was down on average by 50 to 100 mm.
Gippsland - Rainfall was down on average by up to 200 mm.
West and North West - Rainfall was down on average by 50 mm.
Melbourne's east - Rainfall was down on average by up to 200 mm.
Melbourne - Rainfall was on average down by 50 to 100 mm.
There appears to have been a minor recovery for some areas during summer however during Autumn this has been lost.
Victoria - 3 month anomalies - March to May 2008
The eastern half of the state is down on average by 100 to 200 mm.
Central areas is down on average by 50 to 100 mm.
The western area is faring better and down on average by only 25 to 50 mm.
For NSW - Rainfall anomalies 1 December 2007 to 31 May 2008
The SW and Riverina - Down on average by 50 mm.
Far west - Down on average by 100 to 200 mm.
South West New South Wales - Down by 50 to 100 mm.
It appears that some of the more affected regions came close to receiving average rains for a short time during summer but the regions are slipping back to drier conditions.
The northern part of the state including the east coast clearly had above average rains.
For the three month period 1 March to 31 May 2008 for NSW:-
Other than for the mid north coast, rainfall was down. However, the inland and slopes had rainfall deficiencies of 100 to 200 mm, western areas down by 50 to 100 mm and the far west was down by 25 to 50 mm.
It is clear where the rainfall deficiencies continue to occur. Rainfall models for the next three months only indicate neutral conditions for the Murray Darling Basin including much of Victoria.
Harley Pearman
-
It certainly has been dryer than normal - also by this stage of the year, there is normally some snowfall in the Alpine regions - but none at this stage to start the ski season.
The fog has lingered on a little bit longer than normal, but it may be a good sign that some areas of SA are getting rainfall (5-10 in metro and 20mm or so in regionals) today and tomorrow as there are places there that are crying out for it. I know here in VIC, the drought is becoming a long-term event, even though some pockets of moderate rainfall do seem to be occurring each month in isolated amounts. My gauge showed 5mm of rainfall for yesterday - most of which came in a 2hr period during fog and drizzle. If we (VIC) don't get reasonable rainfall during winter and early spring - next summer will be the greatest fire risk season since 1982-83, and we all know what happened in that season!
Big Pete
-
If we (VIC) don't get reasonable rainfall during winter and early spring - next summer will be the greatest fire risk season since 1982-83, and we all know what happened in that season!
I got a really wierd and uneasy feeling that this coming summer we'll probably see the February Dragon come out of hiding after 26 years and cause mass destruction & chaos like it did in 1983 :-\ cause i had a dream a couple weeks back of me fighting a massive bush fire on the back of a truck so maybe that was the warning sign
-
I was pretty worried (as were the authorities) about the last 2 summers in South Australia. Luckily whatever started near Adelaide they managed to get on top of quickly before things got out of control.
-
Hi all,
Been a bit wet here in Melbourne for the last couple of days - and bitterly cold winds have been blasting through as well. My home raingauge has a showing of 22mm since fri arvo, not bad for now. But the wind chill factor has been quite strong - dropping air temps to below 10c. Even though the base temp from BoM has been hovering 12-13c. Good to hear of snow falling in the Alpine region.
Weather has cleared today (sunday), and looking forward to more rain later on this week.
Big Pete
Posted on: 15-06-2008, 14:28:16
Seems as if the wet weather has finally rested here this weekend. A healthy 15mm has fallen in parts of metro-Melbourne in the last 2-3 hrs - including a good heavy shower whilst I was driving from Mum's place to Dad's place (Mooroolbark to Box Hill). It is good to see some winter rainfall finally making it to the eastern part of Melbourne. And since the rains have returned, the greenness in the grass has returned also.
Big Pete
-
Drought statements and June Rainfall for Victoria 2008
Seems like there has been some improvement in parts of Victoria during the month while other areas continue to go backwards.
Generally during June, northern areas across the Murray Darling Basin has fared badly with average rainfalls of between 10 and 25 mm although there are pockets that received 1 - 5 mm at best.
Some higher areas of the NE ranges scored 50 to 100 mm in the form of rain and snow and two very small pockets received 100 to 200 millimetres.
Parts of Gippsland was very dry receiving 5 to 10 mm.
The south west received between 25 and 50 mm and the Dandenongs fared reasonably well scoring 50 to 100 mm.
Hence while rainfall was depleted north of the ranges and in areas of Gippsland, there were some areas that received helpful rains.
Monthly Anomalies:
NE and Murray including Goulburn and into the Mallee - Rainfall down by 50 mm.
NW - Rainfall down by between 10 and 25 mm.
SW - Despite helpful rains, rainfall was still down by between 25 and 50 mm.
Melbourne - Rainfall down by between 10 and 25 mm.
There is some short term improvement in some areas but the north continues to miss out.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/rain_maps.cgi?map=contours@variabl
Three monthly anomalies April, May and June 2008
Severe rainfall anomalies now persist in the north east and a pocket in East Gippsland is classified as "Lowest on Record". There are still many areas of serious deficiencies about but it appears that some June rains in some areas have been helpful.
The official drought statement shows that from March to June 2008 (4 month period), serious to severe rainfall deficiencies covers much of the state. A pocket in eastern Victoria (Gippsland) is classed as "Lowest on record".
From June 2007 through to the end of June 2008 (13 Months) it is evident that much of Victoria received average summer rainfall and in a few areas, above average but a dry winter in 2007 and a dry autumn in 2008 has resulted in Central and western areas now being in Decile 1 for the period.
From 1 June 2007 to 30 June 2008, west and central Victoria is suffering serious to severe rainfall deficiency.
http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media-releases/climate/drought/;
Excellent Sydney Morning Herald reinforces this and dated 6/7/2008 titled:-
"Warning of Severe Drought Just years apart"
at http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/more-dry-years/2008/07/06/12
I found a useful article on the drought affecting NSW but will place this in the General Weather NSW/QLD/NT as it relates mostly to the drought north of the Murray River.
Harley Pearman
-
Hi all,
It has been a while since i posted here, as i have been on holidays (yay!)
Since the start of the financial year (1st July 2008), there has been only 14mm of rain in the gauge at home. Even though Monday 7th was a wet one - producing most of the rainfall to occur.
It has been very cold here, though without any snowfall or hail. Temps in the last week have started to look more like typical winter temps - below 12degC in some places. Here at Mooroolbark, the temps in the last couple of days have struggled to even reach 10degC - in fact, yesterday it only reached 6degC, with a light dusting of snow occurring on Mt Dandenong (just 4 kms east-south-east of here).
Big Pete
(rugging up)
-
Just a keeping-up-to-date post:
Mooroolbark VIC for first 15 days of July = 26mm - near the average for July.
Big Pete
-
G'day again - long time away.
Been struck with the dreaded "Carlton" cold - a cold/flu type bug that affects melbournians like beer affects alcoholics.
the chill factor here has been very cold - and the last 3 mornings out in the NE-OE suburban areas of Melb have been extremely cold - in fact going below 0degC (-2,-3,-2). The good news from all this cold is that Melb's rainfall for this month will beat the average rainfall level for the first time in months.
Rugging up under the doona (cough...arrchoooo....)
Big Pete
-
Hey.
SA here, had a nice hailstorm yesterday (not big), just loud.
-
Victorian rainfall and drought statement - July 2008
The web site for the various rainfall models can be found at:-
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/rain_maps.cgi?map=contours@variabl
Note:- There are numerous graphs and maps that can be manipulated in many ways but there are too many to place in this thread.
July 2008 saw a large portion of the state of Victoria post rainfalls that reached or almost reach "average" although four small areas received rainfalls that slightly exceeded the monthly average. This is a turnaround from the deficits that have been occurring in recent months. In summary:-
a) - The North East highlands received 100 to 200 mm (Allot from snow in the highest areas).
b) - The northern country received falls of between 50 and 100 mm.
c) - The south west areas near the coast received falls of between 100 and 200 mm.
d) - The western areas received falls of between 50 and 100 mm.
e) - The far east (East Gippsland) received falls of between 50 and 100 mm.
f) - Melbourne. A tale of two cities. The eastern half received falls of 50 to 100 mm while the western half received falls of between 25 and 50 mm.
g) - The North West being the Mallee taking in Swan Hill and Mildura received light falls of between 10 and 25 mm.
Anomalies:
July produced a more positive outcome, the first time in several months. Large areas received average or near average falls although East Gippsland received falls that were 10 to 25 mm below average. Small pockets in the hilly north east plus a pocket in the south west received falls of between 25 and 50 mm above average.
The drought stricken Murray region received falls of near average to average.
A region along the South Australian border had falls that were below average.
It is true that useful rains occurred over much of the state during July but more is required to break the long term deficits. The positive to note here is that in some catchments that received the heaviest rains, there was just enough rain to cause small amounts of runoff into dams.
Harley Pearman
-
Hi all,
Been looking at the storm clouds gathering on the eastern fringe of metro Melb this arvo. Nothing severe, but potentially could have been. A few cells near Warburton did drop a few mms, but nothing west of Ringwood/Eltham got any rainfall.
Also been a bit warmer today with the sun out a fair while.
Tonight is expected to fall below 0C again out in the E and NE Vic. Here where I am, the min is expected to reach -1C.
Also have noticed media reports on the excellent snow/ski season in the NE Vic Alps. :)
Big Pete
(borrowing my mother's laptop as my computer has a connection problem - grr)
-
After a very wet end to winter, the last few days in Melbourne have been a direct contrast. Yesterday (12/9) was 21c in parts of Melb. Today is more like the early signs of summer with 25c recorded in parts of Melb - and it is windy! dry but.
Big Pete
-
Well, this winter has been AWFUL
Decent day today for once, nice mild 22C.
-
SAB - be great if you put your location in your profile so we all know where you are reporting from.
regards, Michael
-
Done! :)
Nice and humid outside, surprising as dewpoints are o nly in the 3-10C range across Melb.
-
Another rainfall update for Mooroolbark - last 3 weeks - total 14mm - did get one storm a few days ago - short lived.
Big Pete
-
Has been a very dry month here - I have read an article "claiming" the BoM calling on this month to be so far the driest month of the year for Melbourne - not sure of the claim - maybe Harley can enlighten more on this.
I'm waiting for severe storm season here - has been a bit light on the last coupleof years, but if the patterns continue like they are - weshould get a bumper year here.
The last week has been amazingly typical spring weather here. The only difference is the wind has been stronger than normal for this time of year. Two weeks ago we had our first thunderstorm for spring - nothing to write home about, but at least a sign of things to come? I think winds have been gusting at times during cool changes at about 80kph in some parts in VIC - some stronger in the past couple of weather fronts. Today has been strong but not extreme.
Anyway, hopefully the October/November storms come through this year so I can post some good stuff online.
Big Pete
-
August and September rain statements for Victoria 2008
Big Pete, I have only just found some time to look at the Rainfall data for Victoria. I would describe the September rainfall figures for the state as alarming.
I found a report on Weatherzone dated 25/9/2008 suggesting that Melbourne could have its driest month in 2 years. The city has had 11.6 mm of rain up until 25/9/2008 and if it stays below 13.4 mm then it will end up being the driest month since October 2006 (Weatherzone).
However, I have played around with the August and September rain graphs and charts at:-
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/austmaps/
and
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/rain_maps.cgi?map=contours@variabl
In summary the following happened during August around the state:-
- NW Victoria around Mildura appears to have received average rainfalls.
- The rest of the Mallee received 0 to 10 mm below average rains.
- The SW received 10 to 25 mm above average rains.
- Western and Central areas received 10 to 25 mm below average rains.
- Northern areas typically received 25 to 50 mm below average rains..
- North east border areas received 25 to 50 mm below average rains.
- A pocket around Mt Bogong and the highest peaks received 100 to 200 mm below average rains.
- North Central areas around Bendigo received 10 to 25 mm below average rains.
Of interest, a pocket in far east Gippsland had 50 to 100 mm above average rains. It was a wet month here.
Melbourne typically received 10 to 25 mm below average rains.
Again, the general trends away from the coastal areas reveal another month of below average rains.
It is also noteworthy that the NE area along the Murray River received just 40 to 60% of average monthly rainfall. Rainfall this year for some urban centres in this region is averaging 100 mm below average.
Melbourne on the other hand is averaging 80 to 100% of its annual rainfall to the end of August so it is not doing as bad as some other regions of the state.
Yearly anomalies from December 1 2007 to 31 August 2008 tell the following:-
- Melbourne is down by 75 to 150 mm.
- The north west is down by 0 to 75 mm (Hence this region is not doing too bad but one must remember rainfall is always lower here than the rest of the state).
- The North east border along the Murray River is down by 75 to 150 mm. This is reflected in the rainfall deficiency being experienced around Albury Wodonga which is over 100 mm to date.
- The north central region is down by between 0 and 75 mm. This includes Shepparton but increases to 75 to 150 mm further south around Ballarat and Bendigo.
- The NE mountains have rainfall anomalies of between 150 and 300 mm.
- The SW is down by 75 to 150 mm.
In summary, rainfall deficiencies still prevail but some areas have received fair rainfalls which is enough to approach average figures. A large area is still being starved of rain, especially the north and north east.
September 2008:
Peter, your checking is proving to be quite accurate. The models and trends to 27/9/2008 show a decline in rainfall experienced for the month right across the state. The state is struggling to record anything worthwhile. Average anomalies so far typically range from 25 to 50 mm below average and 50 to 100 mm below average for the Dandenongs. The north west is experiencing 10 to 25 mm below average. Barely any part of the state has received a soaking.
The north and north east are badly hit again.
This is truly odd and a paradox, minor flood warnings are still in effect for the Murray River above the Hume Reservoir. Apparently a pocket around Mt Kosciusko has received well above average falls for the month and coupled with snow melt, the two combined has been enough to cause minor flooding. Looks like there will be some useful water inflows into Lake Hume and the Murray River despite the ongoing rainfall deficiencies elsewhere across the state.
Harley Pearman
-
Harley,
Thanks for the update - I know what rainfall has been like close to home, and it hasn't been too good this month (Sept). Even yesterday and today (28-29th), my home area has not received any rainfall (even though it had been originally forecasted). But the SW of the state of VIC has been getting some rainfall.
After a chat on the phone with a truck-driving friend of mine just a few mins ago - it has been raining steadily but lightly on his track from Colac (VIC) to Mt Gambier (SA). Yet, not one drop between Laverton and Colac. I think the SW is getting more out of this recent trough/front, but the strength is not there to push it across the rest of the state. It also means the N-Cent and NE of the state are coming up dry again as well.
For those in NSW & QLD, has the weather been much better of recent times, or is the rain-deficiencies worse than last year.
For anyone in WA, has the past two months been the wettest seen in some time?
Big Pete
(still awaiting the storms)
-
Big Pete
Further to my previous post, Melbourne City has just suffered its driest September on record with 12 mm of rain falling. It was drier than in 1907 when a little over 13 mm fell. It is interesting to note that September is normally a wetter month for the city with an average of about 58 mm.
Much of Victoria had well below average rains and basically, the state was starved of rain for the month.
It shows that Victoria, especially the north and east continue to suffer the ravages of drought or periods of below average rainfall.
Melbourne's average daytime and nighttime temperatures were 2C above the normal averages. I read the average maximum is 17C but the city recorded an average maximum of 19C. Similar conditions occurred across large swathes of the state.
It is not a good prospect for summer.
Harley Pearman
-
As Harley has said it has been dry. My gauge at home measured 16mm for Sept. And that was only recorded in 3 days (10mm in one day alone).
And so far for the first 2 days of Oct - nil.
Big Pete
(we are expecting 10-15mm on Friday 3rd - at that would be about right as I have some holiday work tomorrow [Fri])
-
Well, I wasn't too far of the mark - the rain event yesterday and early this morning (3-4/10) produced 12.5mm in the home gauge.
Big Pete
(no storms though)
-
Sunday Oct 12, 2008
Been a bit quiet for rain and storms in VIC over the last month or so. The last two days have been glorious for the sun lovers. 28deg C yesterday and close to 30deg C today - the hotest its been since the end of summer season 6 months ago. Not looking too good on the storm front down here though - only a few gusty showers expected over the next 24-48 hrs.
I'm getting envious of those in NSW and QLD who get all the fun :-(
Not to worry - VIC's time will come late Nov/early Dec as a rule.
Big Pete
(parched)
-
When I moved to Sydney from Adelaide late October last year I was greeted by a huge thunderstorm. Arrived at the real estate about 3, signed the papers and grabbed the keys. At the time the agents were trying to complete a backup so they could turn the machines off!
Then went over to look at the place. And quickly decided to use the carport as it came down with lots of close lightning bolts and small hail. But then had to keep driving to drop the long distance girlfriend back to Coffs Harbour.
So I have hopes for the rest of October. It's firing up a bit and hopefully will keep improving. Yesterday fizzled where I went, down south had some good storms on radar towards Kiama, or up near Gosford. Today we had some cloud buildup early but nothing happened (as forecast).
-
Tuesday 21st October 2008
After nearly 2 weeks without a drop of rain, it was nice to see inside the last hour (8-9pm), that some parts of Melbourne, including my home area have has something in the way of rainfall - got 5mm here in 30 mins. which is significant at least (didn't think the weather was severe enough to put it in the current events posting).
I hope to put some weather pics from here in once i find a way to convert them from mobile-phone camera to the posting area. (still a horrid novice at this)
Big Pete
(umbrella is up)
-
Thursday 30 October 2008.
It looks like the start of the "thunderstorm" season in VIC might occur later today EDST. The forecast given last night said there might be a chance of isolated storms in Western and Central Districts - not sure if the severe ones have made it into view yet - wind and humidity are up at the moment. During work overnight, i did sweat unappreciably from the moderate to high humidity and mild to warm temps.
As far as recent rainfall is concerned - 3 days ago had 5mm in 20 mins with a rainstorm with large raindrops - enough to wet the garden, but not enough to soak in. The Big Dry hasn't left yet.
Big Pete
-
Victoria's rainfall deficits continue through October 2008
A statement prepared by the Bureau of Meteorology at:-
http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/ho/20081031.shtml
sums up the October rainfall deficits really well. In particular:-
a) Melbourne sets a new dry September - October record with 26 mm of rain easily beating the 1915 record when 35.2 mm falls during the same period.
b) Mildura and Sale sets a new record for low rainfall for the corresponding same period.
c) South Australia has a new record low rainfall for the same period with an average of 7 mm falling which is even lower than in 2006 when an average of 7.5 mm of rain fell.
It is even mentioned that a state wide temperature anomaly of 2.1C above average has occurred which ranks behind 2006.
At http://www.bom.gov.au.announcements/media_releases/sa/20081031drywarmsepoct.shtml
the situation in South Australia is also described.
I have investigated this further and found that the average Victorian rainfall for October amounts to this:-
North west - 1 - 5 mm.
Mallee 5-10 mm.
South west 10 - 25 mm.
North east and Murray 10 - 25 mm.
Melbourne 10 - 25 mm.
Dandenongs 25 to 50 mm.
West Gippsland 10 - 25 mm and East Gippsland 25 to 50 mm.
Rainfall anomalies
North west - 25-50 mm below average
North east and Murray - 50 to 100 mm below average.
Western - 50 to 100 mm below average.
Melbourne - 50 to 100 mm below average.
Gippsland - 25 to 50 mm below average.
North east highlands - 100 to 200 mm below average.
During October approximately 90% of the state received "Very much below average rains".
With Echuca and Swan Hill regions suffering "below average rainfall".
The majority of the state received 20 to 40% of average rains although a pocket in East Gippsland fared a little better.
Go to http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/rain_maps.cgi
To illustrate the dry and low rainfall totals for the past 3 months, a comparison is made between more commonly known large centres across the state:-
TOWN OCTOBER SEPTEMBER AUGUST
Albury/Wodonga 11.4 mm 15.6 mm 41 mm
Ballarat 10 mm 29 mm 69.8 mm
Bendigo 8.6 mm 7.4 mm 59 mm
Echuca 7.2 mm 5 mm 31.6 mm
Geelong 11.2 mm 34.2 mm 38.6 mm
Hamilton 15.2 mm 48.8 mm 60 mm
Kerang 9 mm 4.8 mm 34.4 mm
Mildura 2.8 mm 2 mm 34.2 mm
Sale 5.2 mm 11.6 mm 42.2 mm
Shepparton 7.2 mm 8.4 mm 32.8 mm
Warrambool 26.8 mm 51.4 mm 115 mm
One can infer that coastal SW Victoria is still getting something and August looked promising however the sample provided shows that totals have tapered away and as shown in the models October was a very dry month across the state. Serious rainfall deficiencies are emerging across the state again and it reinforces the articles provided that the last two months have been very dry with some new records being set for "Dry weather".
Harley Pearman
-
Things have been a bit quiet here weatherwise since the storms last week - but the BoM is forecasting more storms to occur in VIC by mid week with an unstable low currently between SA and WA bringing quite a fair bit of instability to VIC by wednesday.
Hopeing for some good photogenic opportunities.
Big Pete
ps - a note for those from Brizzy - hope none of you lost any roofs or houses over that massive supercellular storm last night. Pray that all is well for all up there.
-
Been tracking a slow moving and wide new low that formed over WA/SA area and is moving west towards VIC/NSW/QLD regions. By the looks on it - this one may produce a good rain event for the pastoral districts in SA, VIC & NSW (W) - something our farmers are really needing right now.
Big Pete
-
This past weekend was a very good rain event day for the eastern half of Melb and the E end of VIC general. Good to see 52mm in the gauge at home for the month so far - most came from this weekend with 32mm for Sat/Sun combined.
Now keeping an eye on the next weather system which will cause storms in VIC, SA (which was under STW when i wrote this post, so was Alice Springs NT), NSW and yet again unlucky QLD from Wed onwards.
May also bring large rain totals - to take a farmer's quote - " the latter rains are ere!"
-
I got two topics to combine into one today: 1. The weather of Sat 6/12/08, and the drought in VIC.
1.
I did a winery tour in the southern part of NE VIC (just before the Great Dividing Range) during the afternoon and evening of Sat 6/12. It may well have been a great day for the wine drinkers I had, but it was also a very good day to observe (as I wasn't able to "chase") the front/trough system as it crossed the Yarra Valley district.
I managed to see three storm cells pass over to the east of my position (unfortunately, due to problems with transferring photos from camera-phone to computer, I'm unable at this time to retrieve the photos, but will endeavour to do so at a later date), one (the last cell) which did produce a brief funnel cloud.
The first cell created a bit of interest with a few C2C lightning bolts, and a few rumbles, but no CGs, and it dissipated quickly.
As the day progressed, the second cell dumped a nice 3mm of rain in about 15 mins, and then developed nicely with good updrafts. No lightning seen, but a couple of rumbles made good.
About an hour later, when the wind & cool change arrived, a nice gust front line (a mini-frontcompared to the recent QLD ones) did produce a nice 1/3 between cloud and ground funnel, but it was very short lived. I did manage to get a photo of it and will hopefully post it later.
Overall a very good observation day, and a great tour enjoyed by all, especially with a double-rainbow glowing over the valley, which was extremely photgenic for all the "wine-ies"
2.
Harley might be able to add more to this, but an observation from my group yesterday, most of which came from the East Gippsland district, and some from southern NSW, have said that the NE region of VIC is not as badly affected by the drought as some would think, thanks to late Spring rains. They said the Yarra Valley area looks much greener than they were expecting, and were also surprised to see so many flourishing grape vines across the valley.
Maybe some good news is around for the farmers in NE VIC - especially with mroe heavy rain in the forecast peroid this week.
Big Pete
(preparing for no-work for 8 weeks - yuk)
-
We are moving back over to manage our family farm in January which is about 45kms north of Yarrawonga. I must say, I was heartbroken at the state of things over there with the drought. My parents are farmers in the south east riverina and have really struggled the past year, to the point where they probably wont put more crop in next year as they haven't harvested anything now for three seasons. The last two years they bailed up all the wheat and barley for hay, which ended up like a lot of stacked hay last year and burnt down in the shed. This year the gates are open for the stock to eat what there is of it, which isn't much!
My dad, like most farmers over there at the moment is walking around with a defeated look in his eyes, but every day he says "It'll rain one day, that I can be sure of". He is amazing.
As the daughter and also a wife of a farmer, I just hope it's not too late.
-
November Rainfall deficits ease throughout Victoria (2008)
Big Pete, I have finally had some time to look at how Victoria fared during November. Located at
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/rain_maps.cgi
containing various interactive maps to view that allows rainfall data to be manipulated.
Some short term good news for Victoria in which November has seen some good rainfall across the state. While the short term deficits have eased, the long term deficits still remain in some areas. In particular:-
Average rainfall for November:
East Victoria centred on Gippsland - 100 to 200 mm.
North East - 50 to 100 mm.
Northern 50 to 100 mm.
Melbourne (East) 50 to 100 mm (west) 25 to 50 mm.
South west - 25 to 50 mm.
Western - 10 to 25 mm.
North west - 25 to 50 mm.
It is interesting to note that the western and south west tended to be drier than the eastern and north west. Parts of Gippsland was rather wet.
Anomalies
a) - Gippsland - 50 to 100 mm above average. (This has helped allot in this area).
b) - NE Victoria graded - 0 to 10 mm above average especially around Albury Wodonga (Helpful but inadequate to remove the long term deficits).
c) - North Central - 25 to 50 mm above average (The area around Shepparton did well).
d) - South west - 10 to 25 mm below average with some grading towards "average".
e) North west - 10 to 25 mm above average (Not too bad for November given the location). Hence Mildura did receive some useful falls during the month.
Enough generally fell to remove or ease the short term deficits but many areas still need good falls to remove the long term deficits.
Some samples for 3 months - 1 September to 30 November 2008:
To highlight the 3 monthly deficits in various regions, a picture is produced for Spring 2008. The dry September and October caused the deficits at some commonly known places.
Location Mean Amount received
Portland 200.9 mm 122.6 mm
Ballarat 194.3 mm 96.6 mm
Mildura 81.1 mm 44.8 mm
Wangaratta 162.4 mm 100.6 mm
Morwell 222.4 mm 119 mm
Echuca 113.3 mm 83.3 mm
Albury 182.4 mm 104 mm
A wetter November could not erase the deficits caused in September and October (Refer to the earlier posts on this subject). Hence many regions and towns had similar totals for 3 months being "below average rainfalls".
3 Monthly anomalies
West and south west - 40 to 60% of average.
North east around Albury -Wodonga and regions - 40 to 60% of averages.
Northern - 60 to 80% of averages.
Far east - 60 to 80%.
Thanks to a wet November:-
Gippsland 100 to 125% of averages (Above average in some areas). One can say this area is currently satisfactory but other areas still need rain.
When the 3 monthly drought statement is read:-
South west Victoria - "Very much below average rains.
North west - "Below average rains".
Northern - Ranges from "Below average to average"
Gippsland "Average". Satisfactory for the time being.
Harley Pearman
-
Rains soak Victoria 13/12/2008
Overnight and into the day - 12/12/2008 to 13/12/2008, Melbourne and surrounds has had its wettest day this year.
Big Pete may even have a few words to say about this event.
Some rain gauges across Melbourne had more than 50 mm overnight. Melbourne City topped 36 mm till 9 am and another 10 mm by 4 pm 13/12/2008. Other top falls include Cardina 54 mm, Pakenham 52 mm and Durns Hill 51 mm.
Just about all of Melbourne scored more than 30 mm. More specific Victoria has enjoyed more terrific falls which will ease the water crises. Best falls in some regions include:-
Casterton 71 mm, Falls Creek 64 mm, Hamilton 61 mm Warnambool 55 mm, Ballarat 50 mm. Mildura 19 mm, Echuca 20 mm, Albury / Wodonga 18 mm, Swan Hill 17 mm.
The better falls occurred in the south, south west and Melbourne which will help to replenish water supplies.
I also understand there are various gale warnings about in southern and Mountain districts and general alerts for sheep grazers as well.
Harley Pearman
-
Yes, harley, you are right, I do have something about the weekend weather in NE Melbourne from this past weekend.
Firstly, the rain gauge at home registered 34mm on Friday, 45mm on Saturday, and 6mm on Sunday (12/12-14/12)
Secondly, whilst I was on one of my trips on Saturday, watched the entire rainfall event from the Yarra Valley winery region on the NE fringe of suburban Melb. It was quite facinating with the diagonal lighter rain (smaller drops), but quite consistent, and it didn't let up all day. Also the winds were quite strong - at times gale force gusts did pick up.
The only thing missing in the mix over the weekend was the thunderstorms - not sure if W VIC got some, but in the E, it was evident the lack of t-storms was noticable.
Still, even the catchment areas in E and NE Central VIC did get a good soaking and top-up. Hopefully enough of a drop to raise the levels and take us out of severe drought conditions.
There were isolated suburbs hit with flash flooding over the weekend. I did manage to take the double-decker bus I was driving, through some of the larger puddles on the Melba Hwy, in Yarra Glen area, but I think because the ground had been too parched from many years of lack of rainfall, the good soaking did prevent widespread flooding like in decades previous.
All in all, a good rain event, and more follow-up rain is needed still to break the long running drought.
Big Pete
-
Final rainfall statement Victoria 2008 - Short term rainfall deficits ease but long term rainfall deficits remain:
During the month of December 2008, all parts of the state of Victoria received useful to good rainfalls thus easing the short term deficits but not erasing the long term deficits.
Thus far December 2008 rainfalls were:-
North west including the Mallee region - 25 to 50 mm.
North Central - 50 to 100 mm.
North east Victoria varies from 25 to 50 mm to 50 to 100 mm.
Parts of the highlands had between 100 and 200 mm.
South west - 100 to 200 mm.
Melbourne had between 50 to 100 mm.
Gippsland had between 50 to 100 mm. It is noted that some areas had up to 200 mm.
December 2008 is described as a good month for rainfall throughout the state.
Percentages:
Mildura region (Mallee Region) - 150 to 200% above average.
Western region - 200 to 300% above average.
Melbourne - (Western suburbs 150 to 200% above average).
Melbourne - (Eastern suburbs 100 to 150% above average).
North east Victoria - 80 to 100% (Slightly below average to average).
Gippsland - 60 to 150% of averages. Large variations occurred between towns.
Similar rainfall occurred over the north central region.
Anomalies
Mallee - 10 mm above average.
Wimmera - 10 to 25 mm above average.
Wimmera (Further south) - 25 to 50 mm above average.
South west - 50 to 100 mm above average.
North East - 10 mm below average to average.
Melbourne (West 25 to 50 mm above average).
Melbourne (East 10 to 25 mm above average).
Gippsland (Far east) - 10 to 25 mm below average.
Gippsland - 25 to 50 mm above average.
Lower North east (Generally average rainfalls).
North Central - 10 to 50 mm above average.
Short term drought statement:
The three month "Short term drought statement" shows that the rains received in November and December have removed most of the rainfall deficiencies. There is some short term recovery from the drought (October to December period).
Long term 12 month period:
The 12 month rainfall from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2008 for the state shows a different prospective:-
Average 12 month totals:
North west (Mallee) - 200 to 300 mm.
Wimmera (North) - 300 to 400 mm.
Wimmera (South) - 400 to 600 mm.
South West - 600 to 900 mm.
Melbourne - 400 to 600 mm.
North Central - 300 to 600 mm.
North east - 600 to 900 mm.
Gippsland - 600 to 900 mm.
Two small areas north east of Melbourne received between 900 and 1,200 mm of rain for the year.
The anomalies show that most of the state received below average falls for the year indicating that the state has not recovered long term from the drought as shown:-
East Gippsland (Far east) - 400 mm below average.
Central east Gippsland - 100 to 200 mm below average.
North east - As much as 800 mm below average in the highlands. Other areas fall within the range of 200 to 400 mm below average.
North Central - 100 to 200 mm below average.
Mallee and North west - 100 mm below average.
Wimmera - 100 to 200 mm below average.
Melbourne (East - 200 to 400 mm below average).
Melbourne (West - 100 to 200 mm below average).
South west - 100 mm below average.
The drought statement shows some serious rainfall deficiencies around Melbourne. Rainfall is below average everywhere else and the state is precarious and has not recovered long term.
The rainfall figures and averages can be obtained at:-
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/silo/rain_maps.cgi
Some yearly rainfall figures across the state of Victoria highlighting the amount of rainfall received from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2008 at commonly known locations.
City / Town Rainfall received in 2008 Average yearly rainfall
Albury - Wodonga 494.6 mm on 105 days 605.5 mm on 103.7 days
Ballarat 486.6 mm on 159 days 695.2 mm on 166 days
Bendigo 385.8 mm on 121 days 485.9 mm on 105.9 days
Echuca 370 mm on 94 days 427.3 mm on 88 days
Melbourne 449.2 mm on 129 days 651.6 mm on 146 days
Mildura 201.4 mm on 60 days 286.2 mm on 71.9 days
Sale 445 mm on 153 days 602.1 mm on 141 days
Shepparton 432.6 mm on 101 days 419.9 mm on 93.9 days
Swan Hill 230.8 mm on 102 days 298.3 mm on 72.8 days
Wangaratta 488.6 mm on 102 days 632.9 mm on 113.2 days
Warrnambool 721.6 mm on 189 days 630.4 mm on 171.7 days
Barring the south west coastal strip, much of the state is still experiencing rainfall deficiencies and there has been no proper long term recovery from the drought. As shown, most of the state has experienced below average rainfall for 2008, some places and regions more so than others.
Harley Pearman
-
Back again after a long hiatis - been trying to enjoy work again. I have noticed quite a few forecasts in Melbourne area of possible thunderstorms and showers for yesterday (11/3/09) through to Saturday (14/3/09) - but so far, not one of these storms has reached the outer east region of metro-Melbourne.
Maybe the moisture hasn't made it through to us yet, but the humidity has been relatively high (temp yest reached 30deg C with 75% rh).
Still, I wait in hope for convection to arrive - need some pic opportunities.
Big Pete
(going back into hybernation)
ps - Interesting landspout from Ayr region. looks similar to the Geelong one from a year or two ago.
-
Well, all hail to my new camera - still yet to be christened with a good storm pic - but in saying so, I was looking at the BoM forecast for Melbourne, and the long weekend coming up, might actually yield such a good opportunity - the forecast for sat sun and mon at this stage is possible thunderstorms!!!
Time to start testing....
Big Pete
-
We have had 17mm since Monday, and still have rain and showers forecast for the rest of the week with possible thunderstorms tipped for the weekend. Fingers crossed Big Pete that you get some stormy weather for the new camera!
-
A bit of pondering on my part whilst I was in Adelaide in June/July for trade school and experienced SA's bitterly cold wintery weather. Living in the tropics kind of blinkers one's perspective of other cloud formations and the like in other states, it does not matter if there is not storms but the shape, form and structure of winter clouds with rising sun and setting sun opened my eyes somewhat even more to appreciate weather in all its form. I was often outside with a beer in the afternoon - shivering i might add - but just watching towers rise and cap out and seeing all types of cloud types form in front of me. With the storm experience I have in the NT i sometimes take it for granted that storms are a given and seeing the winter weather scenarios and viewing the soundings made me realize that storm chasers really do need to have a wide repertoire of knowledge when it comes to cloud structure and what they do during seasons where, by my location, can be taken for granted and opportunities missed for a photo.
We can become complacent with our own location's weather and it's rewarding to see different weather for a change as opposed to dry and wet for me - the seasons that everyone experiences 'down south' really do offer a lot re chasing experience whether they be busts or successful chases. Even those days I heard thunder there was no distinct lightning strikes, but definitely made me understand a bit more about what goes on with these clouds in other parts of the country re storms per se.
Just my thoughts and anyone else had the same ?
-
Mike
I tend to agree with you. I think at times we take too much of our own home weather for granted.. that we fail to see the changes and varieties in the types of storms and clouds available.
This is one of the reasons why I am excited to be doing something different this year, and go travelling interstate (something I have not done in years).
I want to see the different structures, storms and life away from eastern Melbourne.
I hope you enjoyed Adelaide, Mike. I found it to be one of the best structured and prettiest cities I have been to.
Big Pete
-
Hi all,
Just an extra-early note to let all know that it looks like winter season will end with Bang! in VIC
Recent look at BoM forecasts for VIC show the possibility of low-level snow falls for Tuesday and Wednesday coming...
- possible falls down to 800m.
Did miss out on the thunderstorms today, but not the wind! Certainly were some strong gusts between 8am and 11am here. I think Lilydale copped some 100kph winds, and although I don't have pics (I'm sure John Allen or Brad Hannon might have some), there was some significant damage in that area, as well as Nunawading, Windsor (where a 200 foot tree crashed a house and took out tram overhead wires), and Moorabbin. There was an official severe squall warning out for the bay area as well at the same time...
As far as warmth is concerned, as Harley explained on another thread, there may be a warmer than usual springtime coming up - and I'm hopeful a few thunderstorms (the severe ones) might frequent my way too. I've definetly been suffering SDS here, but at least the rain has greened up the area.
All the best to all..
Big Pete
(one day will ride the storm...)
-
Back for another season!
And the good news is that the rainfall in Mooroolbark for September this year is already nearing the averages. Another 28mm in the gauge overnight, sees the total here at 55mm for the month. And there is more to come...
Also, today has been very cold - temp just hovering around 11degC - and there has been a few sprinklings of sleet (soft hail)..
Big Pete
(nice storms developing near you)
-
What a contrast Big Pete, in Brisbane we have had a high of 34.2C at the airport and the sensor on the verandah at home registered 34C, very hot winds driving and bit of dust around as well, so Iam feeling a little jealous right now.
Checked the snow cams and reports for VIC and NSW and it shows good snow falls are happening with 20-40 cm today and 10- 20cm tomorrow. The cams show a good snow coverage in many places still.
Hopefully the cooler front that is forecasts arrives shortly.
Cheers
Col.
-
Hi all, it has been quite some time since I last posted something about VIC weather... so I'll start with last Thursday and the fortnight before, there were two quite significant storm changes in my part of town.
The First (Thursday 27/11/09) had quite some impact on the eastern and northern sides of town - the main gust front clicked in near where I was observing at about 3pm - with quite a dark sea-green mass of cloud to the north of me (I was in Box Hill looking north toward Doncaster) - it did have some small rotation at the front edge as it passed southwards, but it only lasted about 2-3 mins, before the heavy rain, storms, and strong winds blew in for the next 35mins - with 45mm of rain in that time... at home, my mother encountered the storm with verocity that it kicked our front gate back in her face, as she was trying to shut it (OUCH!!).
The second (last Thursday 10/12/09) wasn't as harsh as the previous fortnight's storm, but it still dumped alot of rain in a short space of time (41mm in one hour in the home gauge) - this one was NOT severe-warned, but did cause localised flash-flooding in inner and central eastern areas of Melbourne for a short time..
Mike in Darwin - hope all is ok with TC Lawrence buffeting you... first one for the season! And great lightning pics! Makes a southerner jealous!
Hope to be posting more as the holiday perios kicks in - but not looking forward to Wednesday's forecast - 39C with late change...
Big Pete
-
It has been quieter this week - but some good rainfall last weekend made the dams rise a percentile - which is always good. But there have been some damaging fires to the northeast, which have been disconcerting.
Today is not much of a storm potential day - it is very warm, but lightly overcast.
Big Pete
-
Just a heads up for those in VIC waiting for the next storm event - be prepared for some during the new year's weekend. Forecasters believe storms may interrupt NYE fireworks celebrations, with storms forecast for thursday, friday and saturday here... The weather, although quite warm this past weekend, has also been humid because of the low trough running through NSW. I feel for a lot of people in the flood affected areas, but it hasn't decently flooded here since 2005, and even then, a really wet summer hasn't occurred since 1996. So we are desperate for the rain too.
P - ps Off Topic: (Love what Reed is doing to make a name in South America)...
-
Been a quiet couple of weeks in Melbourne, since the severe hailstorm/supercells intercepted my home city. There has been a slight chance of thunderstorms predicted for this evening in Melbourne, with the BoM (on The Weather Channel) saying it is only slight at this stage.
From my viewpoint it is hazy overcast and very warm here at the moment, the humidity is building, and storms are beginning to develop on the western horizon - it will be interesting to see what eventuates....
Big Pete