Author Topic: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010  (Read 15285 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline supercell_impact

  • Rope Tornado F0
  • *
  • Posts: 4
  • Gender: Male
VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« on: 09 October 2010, 03:24:32 AM »
Bom so far has between 20-40mm down for those dates for most areas but some have 10-20mm. Storm activity will be present on Tuesday and wednesday next week with every district down for storms. Possibly severe.. So he come another bout of storms for Vic not as severe as this  week at the moment but could be with the tropical moisture streaming south.  :)
« Last Edit: 09 October 2010, 01:58:19 PM by supercell_impact »

Offline supercell_impact

  • Rope Tornado F0
  • *
  • Posts: 4
  • Gender: Male
RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #1 on: 10 October 2010, 08:01:18 AM »
A very interesting week ahead! Models are still relativley all over the shop but we are getting a general agreement or overview of the situation. In all likelyhood it is going to be quite a large event, or several numbers of different systems as per EC is indicating. But either scenario, flooding becomes a real problem again across the state.

During Sunday, we should see winds tend more northeasterly, and this is when the moisture starts to be pumped down into Victoria from northern regions and Queensland.

By Monday DP's should have risen a little and there is some indication that there could be a few isolated afternoon showers or/and thunderstorms near the northeast ranges and in the southwest, filtering over from southeast South Australia where there is an upper disturbance. Winds will tend more north to northwest during Monday and they are looking to be quite fresh to strong and occassionaly gusty across the state as the pressure gradient tightens a little. Temperatures will be quite warm as well with mid 20's through the south and high 20's approaching the 30 degree mark across the north.

Depending on which scenario plays out, Tuesday could remain rather troughy as per EC, or a day with cloud increasing and rain areas developing from the west as per GFS and even ACCESS. If GFS plays out, there would be a relatively weak south to southwest change enter the southwest during the afternoon. However EC looks a lot more interesting with moisture comtinuing to plume into the state with northerly winds continuing and instability rising thanks to the trough in the region. This would ensure shower and thunderstorm activity to continue across most of the state.

Wednesday onwards is just way too confusing at the moment with many scenarios possibly playing out. EC continues troughy conditions with a weak front coming through the state later in the day, ensuring showers and thunderstorms to continue, whereas GFS has most of Victoria in a southeast flow and rain areas continuing.

So hard to say from Wednesday onwards ... will have to watch the satellite over coming days and model runs as well

Offline Harley Pearman

  • Barrel tornado F4
  • *
  • Posts: 584
RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #2 on: 11 October 2010, 12:40:14 PM »
Rainfall models for Victoria and Southern New South Wales do vary in the extent of rainfall and total amounts that could fall. However it appears that North East Victoria especially the highland regions should receive the greater amounts.

The Bureau of Meteorology Land and Water Plot for the period 10 to 13 October suggests that North East Victoria and Southern New South Wales should receive the greater amounts (25 to 50 mm). The greater amounts are largely centred on the ranges and adjacent environs. Central, Northern and Melbourne is shown to be within the 15 to 25 mm range with much lighter falls occurring in the far west and east of the state.

The GFS plot 00Z for the next 96 hours suggests that North East Victoria would receive the highest totals of at least 75 mm with nearby environs receiving at east 50 mm. This includes a portion of Southern New South Wales close to the Murray River around Albury / Wodonga and Lake Hume.

Additionally much of Northern and Western Victoria is shown to be within the range of 25 to 50 mm. The plot also suggests that far Southern Victoria should receive up to 50 mm. Finally the plot shows far North West Victoria and the far east receiving much lighter totals.

The plots referred to are provided below.

Harley Pearman

Offline supercell_impact

  • Rope Tornado F0
  • *
  • Posts: 4
  • Gender: Male
RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #3 on: 11 October 2010, 01:25:11 PM »
The storm activity for  tuesday will be centered on western Vic and may drift into central Vic. But on wednesday the activity will be widespread from a line from swan hill to colac. Then later in the week a cold outbreak will take hold.

Offline Michael Bath

  • storm chaser
  • Administrator
  • Wedge tornado F5
  • *
  • Posts: 1,602
  • Gender: Male
    • Australian Severe Weather
RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #4 on: 12 October 2010, 02:40:20 AM »
At this stage, there is a lot of cold air progged with this change with widespread snowfalls during Thursday night and Friday. It may also be a severe thunderstorm day Friday afternoon for NE NSW / SE QLD.

Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
Australian Severe Weather:   http://australiasevereweather.com/
Lightning Photography:   http://www.lightningphotography.com/
Early Warning Network: http://www.ewn.com.au
Contact: Michael Bath

Offline David C

  • Global Moderator
  • Barrel tornado F4
  • *
  • Posts: 643
  • Gender: Male
    • Thunderbolt Tours Storm Chasing Adventures
RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #5 on: 13 October 2010, 10:45:26 AM »
Currently a nice, little, somewhat isolated storm just to the north of Castlemaine (Vic) at the moment ~ 4:30pm ESDT

More general band of rain/storms behind, including some borderline severe stuff down in the region of Geelong/Avalon.

« Last Edit: 13 October 2010, 11:06:03 AM by Michael Bath »
Storm Chaser,
Thunderbolt Tours - USA & Australia Storm Chase Tours
www.thunderbolttours.com

Offline Michael Bath

  • storm chaser
  • Administrator
  • Wedge tornado F5
  • *
  • Posts: 1,602
  • Gender: Male
    • Australian Severe Weather
RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #6 on: 13 October 2010, 11:05:02 AM »
Quite a wild setup on its way according to the models. Widespread rain over VIC and NSW expected but not coastal - in contrast to the past week.

There's already a number of flood watches out alone with the current STWs in VIC.

Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
Australian Severe Weather:   http://australiasevereweather.com/
Lightning Photography:   http://www.lightningphotography.com/
Early Warning Network: http://www.ewn.com.au
Contact: Michael Bath

Offline Hardy25

  • Multi-vortex F1
  • *
  • Posts: 38
  • Gender: Male
RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #7 on: 13 October 2010, 11:12:43 AM »
got some photos of the storm moving over my house will post soon =]


*edit*
« Last Edit: 13 October 2010, 11:27:50 AM by Hardy25 »

Offline Brad Hannon

  • Thunderbolt Tours Group
  • Stove pipe F3
  • ******
  • Posts: 427
  • Gender: Male
  • Colorado Beast - 2nd June 2005
RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #8 on: 14 October 2010, 06:34:24 PM »
Currently a nice, little, somewhat isolated storm just to the north of Castlemaine (Vic) at the moment ~ 4:30pm ESDT

More general band of rain/storms behind, including some borderline severe stuff down in the region of Geelong/Avalon.


Hi David, I chased this isolated supercell for over 4 hours with John Allen.  After a late decision to chase we got onto it at north of Harcourt as it exploded and began to move left (east).  Without doubt one of my best Aussie chases, if not the best and matched with some of my best photography in Aus (300+ shots!).  This classic produced serious wall clouds and funnels repeatedly for hours and went very close to tornado as it approached/crossed the Calder and would not be the least bit surprised if it did then and also at other times through it's life (through some tough chase terrain) before it was engulfed by the line near Broadford where we ended our chase.  Scud motion into and rotation of the wall cloud were incredible at times and the structure was to die for. We punched several times due to roads and encountered 5cm hail (est) in the RFD incl a few dents (oops).
hmmm June 2nd......

Offline Brad Hannon

  • Thunderbolt Tours Group
  • Stove pipe F3
  • ******
  • Posts: 427
  • Gender: Male
  • Colorado Beast - 2nd June 2005
RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #9 on: 14 October 2010, 06:40:33 PM »
More pics of the Castlemaine to Broadford supercell from Tuesday:
« Last Edit: 14 October 2010, 07:16:57 PM by Brad Hannon »
hmmm June 2nd......

Offline Brad Hannon

  • Thunderbolt Tours Group
  • Stove pipe F3
  • ******
  • Posts: 427
  • Gender: Male
  • Colorado Beast - 2nd June 2005
RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #10 on: 14 October 2010, 06:44:52 PM »
More pics of the Castlemaine to Broadford supercell from Tuesday:
« Last Edit: 14 October 2010, 07:17:09 PM by Brad Hannon »
hmmm June 2nd......

Offline Brad Hannon

  • Thunderbolt Tours Group
  • Stove pipe F3
  • ******
  • Posts: 427
  • Gender: Male
  • Colorado Beast - 2nd June 2005
RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #11 on: 14 October 2010, 06:47:29 PM »
More pics of the Castlemaine to Broadford supercell from Tuesday:
« Last Edit: 14 October 2010, 07:17:22 PM by Brad Hannon »
hmmm June 2nd......

Offline Brad Hannon

  • Thunderbolt Tours Group
  • Stove pipe F3
  • ******
  • Posts: 427
  • Gender: Male
  • Colorado Beast - 2nd June 2005
RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #12 on: 14 October 2010, 06:52:17 PM »
More pics of the Castlemaine to Broadford supercell from Tuesday:
« Last Edit: 14 October 2010, 07:17:34 PM by Brad Hannon »
hmmm June 2nd......

Offline Brad Hannon

  • Thunderbolt Tours Group
  • Stove pipe F3
  • ******
  • Posts: 427
  • Gender: Male
  • Colorado Beast - 2nd June 2005
RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #13 on: 14 October 2010, 06:58:57 PM »
More pics of the Castlemaine to Broadford supercell from Tuesday:
« Last Edit: 14 October 2010, 07:17:47 PM by Brad Hannon »
hmmm June 2nd......

Offline Brad Hannon

  • Thunderbolt Tours Group
  • Stove pipe F3
  • ******
  • Posts: 427
  • Gender: Male
  • Colorado Beast - 2nd June 2005
RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #14 on: 14 October 2010, 07:08:06 PM »
More pics of the Castlemaine to Broadford supercell from Tuesday:
« Last Edit: 14 October 2010, 07:17:59 PM by Brad Hannon »
hmmm June 2nd......