Author Topic: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010  (Read 15300 times)

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Offline Brad Hannon

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RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #15 on: 14 October 2010, 07:14:46 PM »
More pics of the Castlemaine to Broadford supercell from Tuesday:
hmmm June 2nd......

Offline Michael Bath

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RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #16 on: 15 October 2010, 02:45:17 AM »
Thanks for posting your report and pics Brad. Still waiting for a storm chase opportunity here.

Radar for the event and Melbourne sounding attached for 12th Oct.

128km Radar Loop for Melbourne, 02:00 12/10/2010 to 10:00 12/10/2010 UTC
Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
Australian Severe Weather:   http://australiasevereweather.com/
Lightning Photography:   http://www.lightningphotography.com/
Early Warning Network: http://www.ewn.com.au
Contact: Michael Bath

Offline Michael Bath

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RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #17 on: 15 October 2010, 10:29:54 AM »
Some wild weather expected across VIC and NSW over the next 24 hours or so. The change still looking very dramatic on the charts. Various flood and severe weather warnings are in place. The two main ones are:

Quote
Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds and flash flooding
for people in the Hunter, Australian Capital Territory, Upper Western, Northern Tablelands, Riverina, Illawarra, Central West Slopes & Plains, South West Slopes, Snowy Mountains, North West Slopes & Plains, Southern Tablelands and Central Tablelands forecast districts

Issued at 4:23 pm EDT on Thursday 14 October 2010.
Weather Situation

The passage of a strong cold front across NSW during Friday is expected to cause heavy rain and damaging winds across a large are of central NSW. The heavy rainfall will commence in the west of the state this evening and extend east overnight, before clearing eastwards by late Friday.

Damaging winds averaging 60 km/h with peak gusts around 110 km/h are forecast for the Northern Tablelands, Illawarra, Southern Tablelands, Central Tablelands and Hunter forecast districts and parts of the Australian Capital Territory, Snowy Mountains and North West Slopes & Plains forecast districts.

Rain and thunderstorms which may lead to flash flooding is forecast for the Central West Slopes & Plains, Northern Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, Central Tablelands and South West Slopes forecast districts and parts of the Upper Western, Australian Capital Territory, Riverina, Snowy Mountains and North West Slopes & Plains forecast districts.

Quote
Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds and flash flooding
for people in the Alpine Areas, Western, North Central, Northern Country, Wimmera, Central, West and South Gippsland, East Gippsland and Northeast forecast districts

Issued at 4:02 pm EDT on Thursday 14 October 2010.
Weather Situation

A strong cold front south of the Bight will continue to intensify as it approaches Victoria, reaching southwest Victoria later tonight, central Victoria by dawn Friday and then clearing eastern areas of the State by early Friday afternoon.

Rain and isolated thunderstorms will extend across the State overnight and during Friday ahead of a cold front with totals of 30-50mm expected over much of the State and higher peak falls on the northeast ranges of around 100mm. The heavy rain may lead to local flooding over central and northeast districts and riverine flooding is likely across the northeast.

Behind the front wintry conditions will arrive with strong to squally southwest winds, hail and thunder and snow showers on the ranges above 500m. Wind gusts to 90km/h are expected and may be higher with showers and thunderstorms.

Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
Australian Severe Weather:   http://australiasevereweather.com/
Lightning Photography:   http://www.lightningphotography.com/
Early Warning Network: http://www.ewn.com.au
Contact: Michael Bath

Offline Colin Maitland

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RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #18 on: 16 October 2010, 04:30:38 AM »
A very impressive system on the 512Km/h radar this morning for Vic and Southern NSW.

Going to be a rough for sure.

Take care

Col

Offline Colin Maitland

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RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #19 on: 16 October 2010, 06:24:21 AM »
Parts of QLD, especially the Southeast, is in for another battering today and tomorrow with a SWW being issued at 10.30am. Some of the models forecast decent rainfall totals within the region as well. There is also a warning for wind gust of up to 100Km/h to arrive later today.

SWW issued this morning from BoM

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Damaging Winds
For people in the Maranoa and Warrego, Darling Downs and Granite Belt and
Southeast Coast districts.     

Issued at 10:30 am on Friday 15 October 2010

Synoptic Situation:
A vigorous cold front is forecast to pass through southern Queensland during
today, moving off the east coast early on Saturday morning.   

Damaging winds gusts to 100 km/h are forecast to develop about the Maranoa and
Warrego district this morning, extending to the Darling Downs and Granite Belt
district during the afternoon and the Southeast Coast district this evening.   


So once again take care.


Colin

Offline Mathew Townsend

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RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #20 on: 16 October 2010, 06:24:45 AM »
Wow that looking sooo beautiful! I wish this happens years ago like 2002 el nino. Now its super la nina with incredible positive 25!

Ill be due back in Ballina/Lismore at towards end of next month. Hopefully weather will warm and produce some storms!

Offline Kristy Norman

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RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #21 on: 16 October 2010, 06:45:46 AM »

Well it's wet here, REALLY wet!!

Got up this morning to check the rain guage in my slippers and got the shock of my life....our backyard is under water and so are all the surrounding paddocks!

Had to ditch the slippers and grab some gumboots only to find our rain guage overflowing, hasn't done that here for MANY years!

So overnight to 7am we recieved 50+mm of the wet stuff and have also recieved another 20mm since 7am.
Since Monday we have had over 120mm.

It's still really quite warm and humid but we are waiting for this nasty change to come through soon with gale force winds and storms forecast for us.
It's also supposed to turn very cold so I am making the most of the warm balmy weather with house open.


Haven't seen this much water laying around since I was a child. There is a lot of flash flooding on the roads and our driveway is a wash out.

No doubt the Murray will flood again as the Hume Weir releases more water.

We also have 12,000 acres in of crops growing beautifully for the first time in eight long years! Lots of smiles here today!!

Offline Michael Thomas

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RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #22 on: 16 October 2010, 06:52:43 AM »
Great photos there Brad! Very jealous, though you put in the time so it is nice to be rewarded.

Any ideas on why this particular storm did so well? Haven't really had a chance to look into it. From memory, there was no real standout feature this day. The wind shear was good but certainly was not jaw dropping. Was it just a case of everything falling into place?

Michael

Offline Hardy25

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RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #23 on: 16 October 2010, 07:13:02 AM »
Melbourne is soaked today, the rain just keeps on pouring

flood watches are out for many parts of victoria atm

Offline Brad Hannon

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RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #24 on: 16 October 2010, 08:39:40 AM »
Hi Michael, obviously John has replied with the answer to what happened and in considerable detail which is a  good read.  It was quite remarkable to see and feel the conditions defy the models as the day progressed with added heating and moisture flow into the region sparking us into action at the last minute!  Shear was never our concern, but more the potential lack of additional heating but once the cloud cover cleared (which was not forcast) and the sun kicked in the results were incredible.  Keep in mind we initially let 2 decent cells with rapidly developed low and dynamic wall clouds move south of us to get onto the eventual supercell and at one stage we could see all three in close range!  As John said, the left turn into unimpeded moisture was essential for this cell to survive and behave as it did for so long before the line caught it. Mind you, I have pics of the storm just after dark that show the supercell in a strengthening phase somewhere near Broadford, evident rotation in the structure and with a new strong low level inflow band as the line was beginning to engulf it! so it was still going strong when we lost it after 4.5 hours :)

I will post some panoramic stitched images of the storm tonight.

Brad.
hmmm June 2nd......

Offline Michael Thomas

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RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #25 on: 16 October 2010, 09:38:02 AM »
Thanks for the replies, quite informative. Regarding the wind shear, I would agree that it was supportive of supercells, no questions on that. All I was saying is that there was not a standout feature like a big strong 50+ knot mid-level overhead. Wind speeds were decent throughout the troposphere and as you say, with the turning in the low-levels you end up with quite decent wind shear. No agruments there, I was not being harsh and certainly supercells occur in NE NSW with far less impressive wind shear (I hope I don't have any regional bias). Anyway, congrates on the storm, some excellent photos from quite an impressive storm.

I'll have a read of that paper. I am not liking the start of the storm season in SE Qld. Seems like more storm events are occuring inland (and further south) rather than coastal areas. Certainly surface moisture has been quite rich inland compared to the last several years.

Offline Antonio (stormboy)

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RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #26 on: 16 October 2010, 01:49:41 PM »
My area Ballina NSW is gusting at 65kms with a isolated gust of 72kmh you can see my weatherstations data here (wind data) http://www.ballina-nsw-weather-from-stormboy.com/trends.htm

Antonio.

Offline Antonio (stormboy)

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RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #27 on: 16 October 2010, 03:38:05 PM »
81kmh wind gusts right now with the noise of snapping trees!

Antonio

Offline Harley Pearman

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RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #28 on: 16 October 2010, 03:49:04 PM »
Rainfall for 15/10/2010

Large rainfall totals were a feature across southern New South Wales and Northern Victoria on 15/10/2010. Some larger totals for the duration of the event until 8 pm 15/10/2010 include Rutherglen Rise 78.2 mm, Corowa 69 mm, Griffith 61 mm, Albury Airport, 53.8 mm (It started raining here at 4 am), Cabramurra 48.6 mm, Wangaratta 46 mm, Yarrawonga 45.8 mm, Wagga Wagga 40.8 mm (The rainfall at Wagga Wagga comes less than 2 days after a fall of up to 80 mm) and Shepparton 26.2 mm.

Some totals from 9 am to 8 pm 15/10/2010 include Thredbo 62 mm, Tumbarumba 60 mm and Khancoban 56 mm.

Some totals for the 24 hours till 9 am 15/10/2010 include Henty 61 mm, Darlington Point 58 mm and Hume Dam wall 42 mm.

This rain event has pushed the October average rainfalls at many locations to well above the average for the first two weeks of the month. Further, the rainfall has resulted in moderate river flooding above Lake Hume near Jingellic.

There were some high totals prior to 9 am 15/10/2010 across western New South Wales including Ivanhoe 81 mm, Wilcania 58 mm and Wanaaring 51 mm.

Here in Sydney and indeed along much of the east coast of New South wales, a rain shadow largely prevailed. Rainfall was light or even non existent. It was cloudy here in Sydney with only light showers. However, a late afternoon shower over Blacktown produced a strong rainbow. I managed to take a photo of it from home (Blacktown) looking east. There were a few more showers after sunset but nothing significant.

The rainfall plot from the Bureau of Meteorology (Water and the Land) from 9 am to 8 pm dated 15/10/2010 is provided below.  

Harley Pearman

Offline Brad Hannon

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RE: VIC and NSW Storms Rain Snow 12 - 16 October 2010
« Reply #29 on: 16 October 2010, 05:23:18 PM »
Here are some of my panoramic shots of the Castlemaine to Broadford supercell:

hmmm June 2nd......