Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => Australian Severe Storms, Weather Events and Storm Chasing => Topic started by: supercell_impact on 09 October 2010, 03:24:32 AM
-
Bom so far has between 20-40mm down for those dates for most areas but some have 10-20mm. Storm activity will be present on Tuesday and wednesday next week with every district down for storms. Possibly severe.. So he come another bout of storms for Vic not as severe as this week at the moment but could be with the tropical moisture streaming south. :)
-
A very interesting week ahead! Models are still relativley all over the shop but we are getting a general agreement or overview of the situation. In all likelyhood it is going to be quite a large event, or several numbers of different systems as per EC is indicating. But either scenario, flooding becomes a real problem again across the state.
During Sunday, we should see winds tend more northeasterly, and this is when the moisture starts to be pumped down into Victoria from northern regions and Queensland.
By Monday DP's should have risen a little and there is some indication that there could be a few isolated afternoon showers or/and thunderstorms near the northeast ranges and in the southwest, filtering over from southeast South Australia where there is an upper disturbance. Winds will tend more north to northwest during Monday and they are looking to be quite fresh to strong and occassionaly gusty across the state as the pressure gradient tightens a little. Temperatures will be quite warm as well with mid 20's through the south and high 20's approaching the 30 degree mark across the north.
Depending on which scenario plays out, Tuesday could remain rather troughy as per EC, or a day with cloud increasing and rain areas developing from the west as per GFS and even ACCESS. If GFS plays out, there would be a relatively weak south to southwest change enter the southwest during the afternoon. However EC looks a lot more interesting with moisture comtinuing to plume into the state with northerly winds continuing and instability rising thanks to the trough in the region. This would ensure shower and thunderstorm activity to continue across most of the state.
Wednesday onwards is just way too confusing at the moment with many scenarios possibly playing out. EC continues troughy conditions with a weak front coming through the state later in the day, ensuring showers and thunderstorms to continue, whereas GFS has most of Victoria in a southeast flow and rain areas continuing.
So hard to say from Wednesday onwards ... will have to watch the satellite over coming days and model runs as well
-
Rainfall models for Victoria and Southern New South Wales do vary in the extent of rainfall and total amounts that could fall. However it appears that North East Victoria especially the highland regions should receive the greater amounts.
The Bureau of Meteorology Land and Water Plot for the period 10 to 13 October suggests that North East Victoria and Southern New South Wales should receive the greater amounts (25 to 50 mm). The greater amounts are largely centred on the ranges and adjacent environs. Central, Northern and Melbourne is shown to be within the 15 to 25 mm range with much lighter falls occurring in the far west and east of the state.
The GFS plot 00Z for the next 96 hours suggests that North East Victoria would receive the highest totals of at least 75 mm with nearby environs receiving at east 50 mm. This includes a portion of Southern New South Wales close to the Murray River around Albury / Wodonga and Lake Hume.
Additionally much of Northern and Western Victoria is shown to be within the range of 25 to 50 mm. The plot also suggests that far Southern Victoria should receive up to 50 mm. Finally the plot shows far North West Victoria and the far east receiving much lighter totals.
The plots referred to are provided below.
Harley Pearman
-
The storm activity for tuesday will be centered on western Vic and may drift into central Vic. But on wednesday the activity will be widespread from a line from swan hill to colac. Then later in the week a cold outbreak will take hold.
-
At this stage, there is a lot of cold air progged with this change with widespread snowfalls during Thursday night and Friday. It may also be a severe thunderstorm day Friday afternoon for NE NSW / SE QLD.
-
Currently a nice, little, somewhat isolated storm just to the north of Castlemaine (Vic) at the moment ~ 4:30pm ESDT
More general band of rain/storms behind, including some borderline severe stuff down in the region of Geelong/Avalon.
-
Quite a wild setup on its way according to the models. Widespread rain over VIC and NSW expected but not coastal - in contrast to the past week.
There's already a number of flood watches out alone with the current STWs in VIC.
-
got some photos of the storm moving over my house will post soon =]
*edit*
-
Currently a nice, little, somewhat isolated storm just to the north of Castlemaine (Vic) at the moment ~ 4:30pm ESDT
More general band of rain/storms behind, including some borderline severe stuff down in the region of Geelong/Avalon.
Hi David, I chased this isolated supercell for over 4 hours with John Allen. After a late decision to chase we got onto it at north of Harcourt as it exploded and began to move left (east). Without doubt one of my best Aussie chases, if not the best and matched with some of my best photography in Aus (300+ shots!). This classic produced serious wall clouds and funnels repeatedly for hours and went very close to tornado as it approached/crossed the Calder and would not be the least bit surprised if it did then and also at other times through it's life (through some tough chase terrain) before it was engulfed by the line near Broadford where we ended our chase. Scud motion into and rotation of the wall cloud were incredible at times and the structure was to die for. We punched several times due to roads and encountered 5cm hail (est) in the RFD incl a few dents (oops).
-
More pics of the Castlemaine to Broadford supercell from Tuesday:
-
More pics of the Castlemaine to Broadford supercell from Tuesday:
-
More pics of the Castlemaine to Broadford supercell from Tuesday:
-
More pics of the Castlemaine to Broadford supercell from Tuesday:
-
More pics of the Castlemaine to Broadford supercell from Tuesday:
-
More pics of the Castlemaine to Broadford supercell from Tuesday:
-
More pics of the Castlemaine to Broadford supercell from Tuesday:
-
Thanks for posting your report and pics Brad. Still waiting for a storm chase opportunity here.
Radar for the event and Melbourne sounding attached for 12th Oct.
128km Radar Loop for Melbourne, 02:00 12/10/2010 to 10:00 12/10/2010 UTC
(http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-thumb/IDR023/2010-10-12-02/2010-10-12-10/300.s.png) (http://www.theweatherchaser.com/radar-loop/IDR023-melbourne/2010-10-12-02/2010-10-12-10)
-
Some wild weather expected across VIC and NSW over the next 24 hours or so. The change still looking very dramatic on the charts. Various flood and severe weather warnings are in place. The two main ones are:
Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds and flash flooding
for people in the Hunter, Australian Capital Territory, Upper Western, Northern Tablelands, Riverina, Illawarra, Central West Slopes & Plains, South West Slopes, Snowy Mountains, North West Slopes & Plains, Southern Tablelands and Central Tablelands forecast districts
Issued at 4:23 pm EDT on Thursday 14 October 2010.
Weather Situation
The passage of a strong cold front across NSW during Friday is expected to cause heavy rain and damaging winds across a large are of central NSW. The heavy rainfall will commence in the west of the state this evening and extend east overnight, before clearing eastwards by late Friday.
Damaging winds averaging 60 km/h with peak gusts around 110 km/h are forecast for the Northern Tablelands, Illawarra, Southern Tablelands, Central Tablelands and Hunter forecast districts and parts of the Australian Capital Territory, Snowy Mountains and North West Slopes & Plains forecast districts.
Rain and thunderstorms which may lead to flash flooding is forecast for the Central West Slopes & Plains, Northern Tablelands, Southern Tablelands, Central Tablelands and South West Slopes forecast districts and parts of the Upper Western, Australian Capital Territory, Riverina, Snowy Mountains and North West Slopes & Plains forecast districts.
Severe Weather Warning
for damaging winds and flash flooding
for people in the Alpine Areas, Western, North Central, Northern Country, Wimmera, Central, West and South Gippsland, East Gippsland and Northeast forecast districts
Issued at 4:02 pm EDT on Thursday 14 October 2010.
Weather Situation
A strong cold front south of the Bight will continue to intensify as it approaches Victoria, reaching southwest Victoria later tonight, central Victoria by dawn Friday and then clearing eastern areas of the State by early Friday afternoon.
Rain and isolated thunderstorms will extend across the State overnight and during Friday ahead of a cold front with totals of 30-50mm expected over much of the State and higher peak falls on the northeast ranges of around 100mm. The heavy rain may lead to local flooding over central and northeast districts and riverine flooding is likely across the northeast.
Behind the front wintry conditions will arrive with strong to squally southwest winds, hail and thunder and snow showers on the ranges above 500m. Wind gusts to 90km/h are expected and may be higher with showers and thunderstorms.
-
A very impressive system on the 512Km/h radar this morning for Vic and Southern NSW.
Going to be a rough for sure.
Take care
Col
-
Parts of QLD, especially the Southeast, is in for another battering today and tomorrow with a SWW being issued at 10.30am. Some of the models forecast decent rainfall totals within the region as well. There is also a warning for wind gust of up to 100Km/h to arrive later today.
SWW issued this morning from BoM
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Damaging Winds
For people in the Maranoa and Warrego, Darling Downs and Granite Belt and
Southeast Coast districts.
Issued at 10:30 am on Friday 15 October 2010
Synoptic Situation:
A vigorous cold front is forecast to pass through southern Queensland during
today, moving off the east coast early on Saturday morning.
Damaging winds gusts to 100 km/h are forecast to develop about the Maranoa and
Warrego district this morning, extending to the Darling Downs and Granite Belt
district during the afternoon and the Southeast Coast district this evening.
So once again take care.
Colin
-
Wow that looking sooo beautiful! I wish this happens years ago like 2002 el nino. Now its super la nina with incredible positive 25!
Ill be due back in Ballina/Lismore at towards end of next month. Hopefully weather will warm and produce some storms!
-
Well it's wet here, REALLY wet!!
Got up this morning to check the rain guage in my slippers and got the shock of my life....our backyard is under water and so are all the surrounding paddocks!
Had to ditch the slippers and grab some gumboots only to find our rain guage overflowing, hasn't done that here for MANY years!
So overnight to 7am we recieved 50+mm of the wet stuff and have also recieved another 20mm since 7am.
Since Monday we have had over 120mm.
It's still really quite warm and humid but we are waiting for this nasty change to come through soon with gale force winds and storms forecast for us.
It's also supposed to turn very cold so I am making the most of the warm balmy weather with house open.
Haven't seen this much water laying around since I was a child. There is a lot of flash flooding on the roads and our driveway is a wash out.
No doubt the Murray will flood again as the Hume Weir releases more water.
We also have 12,000 acres in of crops growing beautifully for the first time in eight long years! Lots of smiles here today!!
-
Great photos there Brad! Very jealous, though you put in the time so it is nice to be rewarded.
Any ideas on why this particular storm did so well? Haven't really had a chance to look into it. From memory, there was no real standout feature this day. The wind shear was good but certainly was not jaw dropping. Was it just a case of everything falling into place?
Michael
-
Melbourne is soaked today, the rain just keeps on pouring
flood watches are out for many parts of victoria atm
-
Hi Michael, obviously John has replied with the answer to what happened and in considerable detail which is a good read. It was quite remarkable to see and feel the conditions defy the models as the day progressed with added heating and moisture flow into the region sparking us into action at the last minute! Shear was never our concern, but more the potential lack of additional heating but once the cloud cover cleared (which was not forcast) and the sun kicked in the results were incredible. Keep in mind we initially let 2 decent cells with rapidly developed low and dynamic wall clouds move south of us to get onto the eventual supercell and at one stage we could see all three in close range! As John said, the left turn into unimpeded moisture was essential for this cell to survive and behave as it did for so long before the line caught it. Mind you, I have pics of the storm just after dark that show the supercell in a strengthening phase somewhere near Broadford, evident rotation in the structure and with a new strong low level inflow band as the line was beginning to engulf it! so it was still going strong when we lost it after 4.5 hours :)
I will post some panoramic stitched images of the storm tonight.
Brad.
-
Thanks for the replies, quite informative. Regarding the wind shear, I would agree that it was supportive of supercells, no questions on that. All I was saying is that there was not a standout feature like a big strong 50+ knot mid-level overhead. Wind speeds were decent throughout the troposphere and as you say, with the turning in the low-levels you end up with quite decent wind shear. No agruments there, I was not being harsh and certainly supercells occur in NE NSW with far less impressive wind shear (I hope I don't have any regional bias). Anyway, congrates on the storm, some excellent photos from quite an impressive storm.
I'll have a read of that paper. I am not liking the start of the storm season in SE Qld. Seems like more storm events are occuring inland (and further south) rather than coastal areas. Certainly surface moisture has been quite rich inland compared to the last several years.
-
My area Ballina NSW is gusting at 65kms with a isolated gust of 72kmh you can see my weatherstations data here (wind data) http://www.ballina-nsw-weather-from-stormboy.com/trends.htm (http://www.ballina-nsw-weather-from-stormboy.com/trends.htm)
Antonio.
-
81kmh wind gusts right now with the noise of snapping trees!
Antonio
-
Rainfall for 15/10/2010
Large rainfall totals were a feature across southern New South Wales and Northern Victoria on 15/10/2010. Some larger totals for the duration of the event until 8 pm 15/10/2010 include Rutherglen Rise 78.2 mm, Corowa 69 mm, Griffith 61 mm, Albury Airport, 53.8 mm (It started raining here at 4 am), Cabramurra 48.6 mm, Wangaratta 46 mm, Yarrawonga 45.8 mm, Wagga Wagga 40.8 mm (The rainfall at Wagga Wagga comes less than 2 days after a fall of up to 80 mm) and Shepparton 26.2 mm.
Some totals from 9 am to 8 pm 15/10/2010 include Thredbo 62 mm, Tumbarumba 60 mm and Khancoban 56 mm.
Some totals for the 24 hours till 9 am 15/10/2010 include Henty 61 mm, Darlington Point 58 mm and Hume Dam wall 42 mm.
This rain event has pushed the October average rainfalls at many locations to well above the average for the first two weeks of the month. Further, the rainfall has resulted in moderate river flooding above Lake Hume near Jingellic.
There were some high totals prior to 9 am 15/10/2010 across western New South Wales including Ivanhoe 81 mm, Wilcania 58 mm and Wanaaring 51 mm.
Here in Sydney and indeed along much of the east coast of New South wales, a rain shadow largely prevailed. Rainfall was light or even non existent. It was cloudy here in Sydney with only light showers. However, a late afternoon shower over Blacktown produced a strong rainbow. I managed to take a photo of it from home (Blacktown) looking east. There were a few more showers after sunset but nothing significant.
The rainfall plot from the Bureau of Meteorology (Water and the Land) from 9 am to 8 pm dated 15/10/2010 is provided below.
Harley Pearman
-
Here are some of my panoramic shots of the Castlemaine to Broadford supercell:
-
Here are some of my panoramic shots of the Castlemaine to Broadford supercell:
-
Here are some of my panoramic shots of the Castlemaine to Broadford supercell:
-
Here are some of my panoramic shots of the Castlemaine to Broadford supercell:
-
Here are some of my panoramic shots of the Castlemaine to Broadford supercell:
-
Here are some of my panoramic shots of the Castlemaine to Broadford supercell:
brad 3rd picture down, what is that exactly?
-
Hi Brad,
Nice supercell with clear slot! I particularly like the photos with the clear slot/RFD slot and possible bowl lowering. I assume from the pictures you were at least mostly on the western/northern side - (I saw a picture of a rainbow on this side of the storm).
Well done and I am glad you have finally agreed that this supercell was your best chase ever in Australia!
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
Snow chase
Not having had any chasing of snow for the past couple of years, I decided to head out with family to Oberon. At daybreak, I thought, it was going to be a dud but once I saw the satpics and some clouds advancing from the southwest, I thought this was a chance. From about 8am, snow began to fall in Oberon and then nearer to 9am, it was quite heavy. The snow periods persisted for some time and we went for a drive after breakfast to see if there was more snow beyond Oberon. It seems a better cover had fallen further west and south of Oberon. Pity though that the rain band could not coincide with the cold air!
Snow falling heavily at Oberon
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photo/cache/090___2010/076___16%2520october%25202010%2520jd/16_october_2010_weather_picture_009_by_jimmy_deguara.jpg.thumb.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photo/index.php?twg_album=090___2010%2F076___16+october+2010+jd&twg_show=16_october_2010_weather_picture_009_by_jimmy_deguara.jpg)
Little Jimelle Deguara enjoying her first snow!
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photo/cache/090___2010/076___16%2520october%25202010%2520jd/16_october_2010_weather_picture_019_by_jimmy_deguara.jpg.thumb.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photo/index.php?twg_album=090___2010%2F076___16+october+2010+jd&twg_show=16_october_2010_weather_picture_019_by_jimmy_deguara.jpg)
Snow showers making it through to the Mt Victoria area
(http://australiasevereweather.com/photo/cache/090___2010/076___16%2520october%25202010%2520jd/16_october_2010_weather_picture_042_by_jimmy_deguara.jpg.thumb.jpg) (http://australiasevereweather.com/photo/index.php?twg_album=090___2010%2F076___16+october+2010+jd&twg_show=16_october_2010_weather_picture_042_by_jimmy_deguara.jpg)
The exciting part was despite the gradual warming, the snow showers seem to persist all the way through to Hapmton, Mt Victoria and also Bell. And then, stopping at Bell for the last snow shower, two fast moving objects show out of the grass! Two kangaroos we thought? And then it occurred a viscous dog was chasing one kangaroo!
Tragically, a few kilometres from Bell was a serious accident a car flipped on its roof - people were trapped inside though one person with bloody head outside - possibly due to the slippery conditions.
Snow pictures from Oberon (http://australiasevereweather.com/photo/index.php?twg_album=090___2010%2F076___16+october+2010+jd)
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
-
brad 3rd picture down, what is that exactly?
Hi Hardy, I think you are referring to the line of near vertical scud forming from very low up into the the wall cloud. Firstly, I'm no expert on this feature! Despite initial appearance of this perhaps being a tornado because of its upright nature and clear upmotion and some rotation into a clearly rotating wall cloud, we believe this was more likely a vigorous focal point of the maturing wall cloud - but it would've been interesting to see beyond the hill to see just how close the condensation feature was to the ground. We saw a similar upright wall cloud feature in the USA this year and at least one prominent chaser believed that it was part of the wall cloud but also saw it in contact with the ground and questioned whether it constituted a tornado by definition.
-
Hi Brad,
Nice supercell with clear slot! I particularly like the photos with the clear slot/RFD slot and possible bowl lowering. I assume from the pictures you were at least mostly on the western/northern side - (I saw a picture of a rainbow on this side of the storm).
Well done and I am glad you have finally agreed that this supercell was your best chase ever in Australia!
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
Hi Jimmy, yes the clear slot was incredible on this storm no doubt. The bowl is very well defined in some shots and seems to be accompaned by a ragged satelite type funnel. I have some closer pics of it but theyre not quite in focus unfortunately. A lot of the pics shown are from the north and west you are right including the rainbow shot (we have more rainbow shots just for you!), but due to road options and tree'd areas we did have to punch south several times where we encountered the decent hail. The structure from the north was the best though.
My best chase in Australia for sure based on a few things - we were on the cell from the start to finish (4.5 hours total), it dominated its environment and stayed ahead of the line, had classic structure and low bases and repeatedly produced strong wall clouds and funnels.
Brad.
-
It's worth illustrating the extent of the airmass change associated with the cold front which crossed eastern Australia overnight 15-16 Oct. The Wagga sounding was most impressive but other sites showed similar changes. It's not often we see a 20 degree fall in temps in AU. Also shows why the snow was to low levels with 850 temps of -3 and 700 temps of -13. None of the changes during winter were this strong.
-
Very nice shots Brad. Some amazing structure, impressive clear slot. Cheers, Chris.
-
Very nice shots Brad. Some amazing structure, impressive clear slot. Cheers, Chris.
Thanks for the comments Chris.
-
Like Jimmy I too went up to the Blue Mountains and the Oberon area to check out the snow on October 16. The BOM forecast snow down to about 800m and they were pretty much spot on. I've posted my photos and report on this site: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=65514055&postcount=1440 (http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=65514055&postcount=1440). Enjoy.