Author Topic: Hurricane Gustav: 25 Aug - 3 Sep 2008  (Read 10213 times)

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Offline Carlos E

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Hurricane Gustav: 25 Aug - 3 Sep 2008
« on: 27 August 2008, 11:10:07 AM »
Hurricane Gustav has formed in the Caribbean (very quickly).  It was first analysed as a Tropical Depression about 14 hours ago, and it is already a Hurricane. Areas of Cuba are under Hurricane Warning. Also, this storm is set to track into the Gulf of Mexico, giving it a while to build up some nice power before making landfall anywhere from Mexico to Florida.

Offline Carlos E

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RE: Hurricane Gustav: 25 Aug - 3 Sep 2008
« Reply #1 on: 28 August 2008, 07:16:23 PM »
Hurricane Gustav has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm. It's expected to re-intensify back into a Hurricane once it gets over the land it's currently impacting on. The latest NHC forecast map shows it going directly into New Orleans as a Category 4 Hurricane.

One would assume that is the absolute worst case scenario, it still has a few days to change thankfully.

Offline Carlos E

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RE: Hurricane Gustav: 25 Aug - 3 Sep 2008
« Reply #2 on: 29 August 2008, 04:05:36 PM »
Tropical Storm Gustav has taken a more southern track, it's expected to intensify back into a Hurricane with the next update.

Also, Tropical Depression 08 has formed, it also, is expected to attain Hurricane Status, and at the present time, Florida looks to be the target, although long-term forecasts with this storm are likely to be way off.

Offline Michael Bath

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RE: Hurricane Gustav: 25 Aug - 3 Sep 2008
« Reply #3 on: 30 August 2008, 01:25:05 AM »
The people in New Orleans might be a bit worried about the forecast track which brings Gustav there in a few days.

(map will change as the track unfolds)



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Offline Carlos E

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RE: Hurricane Gustav: 25 Aug - 3 Sep 2008
« Reply #4 on: 01 September 2008, 01:11:58 AM »
Bleh, Gustav is a very strong Cat 4 atm (amazing sat pics), the NHC's forecast now predicts it will attain 5 status. It will be catastrophic if it strikes New Orleans directly, and as a few people have said on another site I post on, the best case scenario will be a west Louisiana strike.

Either way, this isn't a nice storm, and hopefully New Orleans is spared of another Katrina.

Offline Carlos E

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RE: Hurricane Gustav: 25 Aug - 3 Sep 2008
« Reply #5 on: 01 September 2008, 01:13:19 AM »
Not to mention the impact this will have on Cuba, since it's struck the Island as a strong 4, possibly a weak 5.

Offline Peter J

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RE: Hurricane Gustav: 25 Aug - 3 Sep 2008
« Reply #6 on: 01 September 2008, 09:17:46 AM »
Carlos E

I feel for those New-Orleanites. They don't seem to get much of a break.

Gustav definelty is more powerful than Katrina, but i think it is smaller in surface area.

Big Pete
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Offline Mike

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RE: Hurricane Gustav: 25 Aug - 3 Sep 2008
« Reply #7 on: 01 September 2008, 11:04:32 PM »
Live feed info and apologies for length of post...

As at 2:35am NT time - Gustav is currently rated a Cat2 although he may rate a Cat3-4 within 24 hours. There's many things against him strengthening even to a Cat5 during the forecast period. He is entering into cooler waters towards the coast and there is a mid level dry area trying to wrap around the system.  Gustav is struggling but maintaining some resistance to atmospheric conditions and intensifying very slowly.  Central pressures have risen slightly since the hurricane hunter aircraft flew through him, and much depends on the environment he enters within the 24 hour forecast period.

The hurricane whilst not displaying 'text book' structure as described by meteorologists, is still a dangerous system but reports have described it as being 'ragged'.  There is a non distinctive eye, the hurricane hunter aircraft did observe a 25mile wide 'eye', but it is weak in structure with only a few high topped caps circulating.  Even from Cuba there was no eye formed, even now eye wall replacement is taking place but it is very disorganized

Several aspects are affecting its track:  there are two high pressure systems to the NE of the hurricane with a small trough in the centre, there is some discussion at the moment whether this may steer the storm to the right of the current forecast track, although most models give a track of NW/W.  UK models have a more N track to New Orleans but this is not being monitored as likely as steering winds are favoring the former.  The main concern is the circulating post winds from the SE which will push a 13ft storm surge to the coastal areas, then of course once winds shift around, inland surges with the heavy rain will create even more water inundation to those areas first hit by the winds.  SST's are cooler by a couple of degrees within the gulf area and whilst only two or three degrees cooler, they will have an affect on the storm

The NWS give Gustav a 2% chance of being rated a Cat5 within the 24 period, but moreso a Cat3 once he moves toward the predicted landfall zones to the NW.  There are bouey feeds of 34ft waves on the SE flank already and predicted storm surges to a whopping 12-17ft on coastal areas of New Orleans and Jefferson including many other inland counties.  NWS report some areas WILL be affected by 12-16ft storm surges.  Models may have Gustav stalling inland to the NW near Louisiana which would be disastrous.  Jefferson Parish now has a mandatory evacuation notice for residents - a first in their history - so they are in the firing line.  An expected 10-15" of rain is expected in most areas.

Models show an area of track of NW/W or even swing to the east with the influence of those high pressure cells.  Because Gustave is tracking so quickly it is actually running out of time to ramp up, his window of opportunity to intensify is running out the faster he comes ashore. 

Current winds for 7am Monday (US time) are for 135mph winds, Cat4.  Monday 7pm, 100mph winds Cat2.  Tornadoes and heavy rain are forecast for affected areas.  The storm is currently 6 hours from the coast or 325 miles.  The storm is 400 miles in diameter, storm force winds are 40 miles out, it was 70 miles out - so some weakening - but Gustav still is showing 200mph winds on it's outer.

Hurricane Betsy, Katrina and now Gustav all tracked toward Louisanna - let's hope the new president elect does something about storm surge and hurricane insurance for these areas.

I'm still up at 4:33am receiving live info from US info and really i need to go to bed!....
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Robert1984

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RE: Hurricane Gustav: 25 Aug - 3 Sep 2008
« Reply #8 on: 02 September 2008, 04:38:04 AM »
It seems 'The Day After Tomorrow' is upon us people  :-\ cause Gustav is following the same path as Katrina did in 2005 but only this time is 10 x worse than hurricane Katrina i read on a news website that  some coastal parts of New Orleans could see up to 24 foot storm surges while other parts are likely to see 8-10 feet high storm surges

If this is happening in USA i only hate to imagine what is going to happen here in Australia come summer 
:( :-\

Offline Steven

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RE: Hurricane Gustav: 25 Aug - 3 Sep 2008
« Reply #9 on: 02 September 2008, 07:54:30 AM »
I've heard this one is a lot "worse" as it could have the potential to severely damage larger buildings. Last I heard it was a cat 4. Not good.

At least the death count isn't likely to be as high since most have fled the city because of Katrina.
« Last Edit: 02 September 2008, 08:00:07 AM by Steven »

Offline Mike

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RE: Hurricane Gustav: 25 Aug - 3 Sep 2008
« Reply #10 on: 02 September 2008, 08:00:15 AM »
I've been sent this link from the US, it allows you to view 4 different live streams from news broadcasters.  You can stop the play of either one and watch live feeds at your leisure . I stayed up most of this morning watching them.  enjoy!

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/gustav.html
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Offline Steven

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RE: Hurricane Gustav: 25 Aug - 3 Sep 2008
« Reply #11 on: 02 September 2008, 08:19:53 AM »
I've been sent this link from the US, it allows you to view 4 different live streams from news broadcasters.  You can stop the play of either one and watch live feeds at your leisure . I stayed up most of this morning watching them.  enjoy!

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/gustav.html

Interesting, thanks for that Mike.

Cheers,
Steven

Offline Mike

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RE: Hurricane Gustav: 25 Aug - 3 Sep 2008
« Reply #12 on: 03 September 2008, 04:30:46 AM »
Thus far 7 storm related deaths from Gustav.  One poor chap was killed by falling limbs as he was chainsawing limbs off a tree in his yard and also a tragic case of individuals involved in a car crash whilst leaving their respective area to escape Gustav, one was a two year old child.  Very sad to hear that news.  There's still reports of gusts of 77-91mp/h in some NE areas and there's still 40-50kt winds coming onshore from the south still to come.  Flooding not to concerning although one area received 12inches of rain during the hurricane period. The Mississippi is flowing northward, which from what I heard is not desirable!  It never flows north but rather South!
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Robert1984

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RE: Hurricane Gustav: 25 Aug - 3 Sep 2008
« Reply #13 on: 03 September 2008, 04:51:10 AM »
I guess the positive out of this hurricane is that the death toll isnt into the thousands like in 2005 when Katrina stuck New Orleans  :)

 

Offline Steven

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RE: Hurricane Gustav: 25 Aug - 3 Sep 2008
« Reply #14 on: 03 September 2008, 12:37:58 PM »
And the levees didn't give way this time either... YET, thus sparing New Orleans from another devastating flood.