Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => Tropical Cyclones, Typhoons and Hurricanes Worldwide => Topic started by: Carlos E on 27 August 2008, 11:10:07 AM
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Hurricane Gustav has formed in the Caribbean (very quickly). It was first analysed as a Tropical Depression about 14 hours ago, and it is already a Hurricane. Areas of Cuba are under Hurricane Warning. Also, this storm is set to track into the Gulf of Mexico, giving it a while to build up some nice power before making landfall anywhere from Mexico to Florida.
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Hurricane Gustav has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm. It's expected to re-intensify back into a Hurricane once it gets over the land it's currently impacting on. The latest NHC forecast map shows it going directly into New Orleans as a Category 4 Hurricane.
One would assume that is the absolute worst case scenario, it still has a few days to change thankfully.
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Tropical Storm Gustav has taken a more southern track, it's expected to intensify back into a Hurricane with the next update.
Also, Tropical Depression 08 has formed, it also, is expected to attain Hurricane Status, and at the present time, Florida looks to be the target, although long-term forecasts with this storm are likely to be way off.
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The people in New Orleans might be a bit worried about the forecast track which brings Gustav there in a few days.
(map will change as the track unfolds)
(http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/GifArchive/GUSTAV-08.gif)
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Bleh, Gustav is a very strong Cat 4 atm (amazing sat pics), the NHC's forecast now predicts it will attain 5 status. It will be catastrophic if it strikes New Orleans directly, and as a few people have said on another site I post on, the best case scenario will be a west Louisiana strike.
Either way, this isn't a nice storm, and hopefully New Orleans is spared of another Katrina.
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Not to mention the impact this will have on Cuba, since it's struck the Island as a strong 4, possibly a weak 5.
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Carlos E
I feel for those New-Orleanites. They don't seem to get much of a break.
Gustav definelty is more powerful than Katrina, but i think it is smaller in surface area.
Big Pete
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Live feed info and apologies for length of post...
As at 2:35am NT time - Gustav is currently rated a Cat2 although he may rate a Cat3-4 within 24 hours. There's many things against him strengthening even to a Cat5 during the forecast period. He is entering into cooler waters towards the coast and there is a mid level dry area trying to wrap around the system. Gustav is struggling but maintaining some resistance to atmospheric conditions and intensifying very slowly. Central pressures have risen slightly since the hurricane hunter aircraft flew through him, and much depends on the environment he enters within the 24 hour forecast period.
The hurricane whilst not displaying 'text book' structure as described by meteorologists, is still a dangerous system but reports have described it as being 'ragged'. There is a non distinctive eye, the hurricane hunter aircraft did observe a 25mile wide 'eye', but it is weak in structure with only a few high topped caps circulating. Even from Cuba there was no eye formed, even now eye wall replacement is taking place but it is very disorganized
Several aspects are affecting its track: there are two high pressure systems to the NE of the hurricane with a small trough in the centre, there is some discussion at the moment whether this may steer the storm to the right of the current forecast track, although most models give a track of NW/W. UK models have a more N track to New Orleans but this is not being monitored as likely as steering winds are favoring the former. The main concern is the circulating post winds from the SE which will push a 13ft storm surge to the coastal areas, then of course once winds shift around, inland surges with the heavy rain will create even more water inundation to those areas first hit by the winds. SST's are cooler by a couple of degrees within the gulf area and whilst only two or three degrees cooler, they will have an affect on the storm
The NWS give Gustav a 2% chance of being rated a Cat5 within the 24 period, but moreso a Cat3 once he moves toward the predicted landfall zones to the NW. There are bouey feeds of 34ft waves on the SE flank already and predicted storm surges to a whopping 12-17ft on coastal areas of New Orleans and Jefferson including many other inland counties. NWS report some areas WILL be affected by 12-16ft storm surges. Models may have Gustav stalling inland to the NW near Louisiana which would be disastrous. Jefferson Parish now has a mandatory evacuation notice for residents - a first in their history - so they are in the firing line. An expected 10-15" of rain is expected in most areas.
Models show an area of track of NW/W or even swing to the east with the influence of those high pressure cells. Because Gustave is tracking so quickly it is actually running out of time to ramp up, his window of opportunity to intensify is running out the faster he comes ashore.
Current winds for 7am Monday (US time) are for 135mph winds, Cat4. Monday 7pm, 100mph winds Cat2. Tornadoes and heavy rain are forecast for affected areas. The storm is currently 6 hours from the coast or 325 miles. The storm is 400 miles in diameter, storm force winds are 40 miles out, it was 70 miles out - so some weakening - but Gustav still is showing 200mph winds on it's outer.
Hurricane Betsy, Katrina and now Gustav all tracked toward Louisanna - let's hope the new president elect does something about storm surge and hurricane insurance for these areas.
I'm still up at 4:33am receiving live info from US info and really i need to go to bed!....
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It seems 'The Day After Tomorrow' is upon us people :-\ cause Gustav is following the same path as Katrina did in 2005 but only this time is 10 x worse than hurricane Katrina i read on a news website that some coastal parts of New Orleans could see up to 24 foot storm surges while other parts are likely to see 8-10 feet high storm surges
If this is happening in USA i only hate to imagine what is going to happen here in Australia come summer
:( :-\
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I've heard this one is a lot "worse" as it could have the potential to severely damage larger buildings. Last I heard it was a cat 4. Not good.
At least the death count isn't likely to be as high since most have fled the city because of Katrina.
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I've been sent this link from the US, it allows you to view 4 different live streams from news broadcasters. You can stop the play of either one and watch live feeds at your leisure . I stayed up most of this morning watching them. enjoy!
http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/gustav.html
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I've been sent this link from the US, it allows you to view 4 different live streams from news broadcasters. You can stop the play of either one and watch live feeds at your leisure . I stayed up most of this morning watching them. enjoy!
http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/gustav.html
Interesting, thanks for that Mike.
Cheers,
Steven
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Thus far 7 storm related deaths from Gustav. One poor chap was killed by falling limbs as he was chainsawing limbs off a tree in his yard and also a tragic case of individuals involved in a car crash whilst leaving their respective area to escape Gustav, one was a two year old child. Very sad to hear that news. There's still reports of gusts of 77-91mp/h in some NE areas and there's still 40-50kt winds coming onshore from the south still to come. Flooding not to concerning although one area received 12inches of rain during the hurricane period. The Mississippi is flowing northward, which from what I heard is not desirable! It never flows north but rather South!
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I guess the positive out of this hurricane is that the death toll isnt into the thousands like in 2005 when Katrina stuck New Orleans :)
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And the levees didn't give way this time either... YET, thus sparing New Orleans from another devastating flood.
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I have been watching this one with big interest.
I have with me possibly one of the first landfall reports by Forecaster Pasch/Berg at a weather station South of New Orleans 1/9/08, reproduced here:-
000
WTNT52 KNHC 010957
TCEAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE MIAMI FL AL0720008
500 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008
AT 5 AM CDT...1000 UTC THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 40 MILES...70 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA.
WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...A STATION IN SOUTHWEST PASS LOUISIANA REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 91 MPH...147KM/HR WITH A GUST TO 117 MPH...189KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF 79 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL.
Port Fouchon is at the absolute tip of Louisiana and the southernmost settlement of Louisiana. Obviously likely to be one of the closer settlements where it came ashore.
That was from SPC (National Hurricane Centre).
The scale of this and the evacuation is staggering. A new computer model by FEMA prior to landfall estimated that up to 75,000 buildings would be destroyed with a damage bill at $32.8 Billion. At the time of writing this that had not been realized but damage estimates are still coming in and climbing to around $8 to $10 Billion.
Still many think that this may tip the USA into recession and the loses will still be large.
Michael, the hurricane largely followed the path that you posted in your earlier post. It was quite accurate and it followed roughly the same path that I was viewing on the NOAA sites. Generally forecasters largely got this one right.
In total 4,500,000 residents evacuated with 2,000,000 evacuated from the Louisiana coastline alone. Of that 250,000 evacuated from New Orleans but around 10,000 chose to stay in New Orleans. I have no idea where and how such numbers are housed during these events. Just the evacuation would cause massive social dislocation and costs in itself.
It shut down 96% of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico.
I was also viewing the rain radar images at the time of landfall and noted that it did not take long for the main rain bands to sweep across the city. I also noted tornado watch boxes and severe warned thunderstorms to the city's east at the time of landfall.
A report from the Hurricane Hunters aircraft just prior to landfall confirmed that the storm would not intensify further and the storm would slow and weaken. Further, dry air was found to be intruding into the eye wall.
Still after landfall, the storm had weakened and the New Orleans levies were tested. Flood waters have almost crested over a few levies. I was reading on CNN regarding a private levy possibly failing but emergency work ongoing to prevent that. Generally, and despite the struggles, the levies may hold.
There is also fear of two navy vessels breaking their moorings and crashing over a levy.
The biggest threat now is the amount of rain that will fall over western Louisiana and eastern Texas that will cause serious flooding. That is still unfolding.
Amazingly Hurricane Hanna is moving towards northern Florida which is still cleaning up after the floods caused by Fay. Further Ike may be forming too and looks like this one may be headed towards Florida too.
Harley Pearman
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Some archived radar loops of Gustav and other TCs are available from this source by Brian McNoldy of Colorado State Uni:
http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/radar/
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Just had a view of that link, very useful for later reference. Good to see some of the more severe hurricanes etc are shown from previous years. Thanks for the find, Michael.
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Some news station incorrectly reported than Gustav was twice the size of Katrina. I felt like throwing something at the TV. >_>
Anyway, Gustav is producing some nice conditions for Tornadoes, I've seen heaps of warnings for them.
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Snippet from NOAA..Wed 3 Sept 2008
"Over 25 reports of severe weather were received on Tuesday, mostly throughout parts of the Gulf Coast states. Approximately 20 tornadoes were reported in parts of Louisiana and Mississippi as a result of the remnants of Gustav. Numerous trees and power lines were reported down and damage to numerous homes and structures was reported. No injuries were reported. For today, severe weather is possible across parts of southern Missouri, Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi."
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A pizza delivery guy decided to capture this short lived tornado (water spout perhaps??) whilst on the job.
http://www.ireport.com/docs/DOC-72406