Author Topic: VIC/NSW Thunderstorms ( incl Victorian tornado discussion ) 9 - 12 February 2010  (Read 34972 times)

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Offline John Allen

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Hi guys,
Just got back from a long chase with brad, heres the first day of the action summary. Pics will follow when I have time:

Brad and I met up at Mount Cooper, decided to get north of dividing range and sit of the northern flank of the cells that were forming....we ended up seeing some fantastic vertical structure as storms were splitting willy nilly...im guessing because of the relatively straightline hodograph conditions...unfortunately we quickly realised that the split was usually follow by cell death, first the right then the left. Anyway, shot up through Whittlesea to avoid peak hour (just before 3pm), saw a couple mushroom cloud type updrafts and some interesting base structure with frequency CGs. Following this we continued up the Hume north, spotting a mid-level funnel on the way...i commented to brad that the rapid updraft formation was probably indicative of landspout potential (how right I was). An on the road check of weather conditions and a bit of sky scanning quickly suggested that North and Northeast were pretty much out with solid convection towards bendigo.

Numerous Mid-level funnels were spotted as we move west past Heathcote, and possibly coincided with Rikki's landspout....probably to our south in the low contrast environ. We skirted the edge of Bendigo eyeing off the dying storm to the south, and decided to pursue a storm near Maryborough which appeared to be left moving and intensifying...ended up west of Bendigo, through Eddington to Dunally, where we observed another nice cell with mid-level funnel features, and a couple of other weird things, plus numerous inflow bandings particularly as the cells organised. These cells and the Maryborough cell collapsed but a new storm formed to our east...on the road again following what was the Bendigo cell, while we were following this we noticed what appeared to be an isolated large wall cloud to the south, which was obscured by rain as the parent collapsed, and more mid-level funnel activity. The amount of clear air and CGs from the Bendigo right split was amazing....as was the collapse of the left cell...unfortunately we got stuck going through town when this cell was at its best. However, on the other side we noticed another cell develop and feed off the right partner, and gave chase...spotting an amazing corkscrew wall cloud with strong persistant funnel....had we not been attuned by the number of mid-level funnels seen we might have missed it but this event was far lower and much more impressive that anything else. Anyway as it disapated we set up on the final storm (last storm before diurnal end killed everything), it underwent a similar lifecycle to most cells of the day, moving slowly and developing good features with tilt and inflow band, then a rapid collapse as the slow progression resulted in the outflow being ingested. However the lighting allowed us to catch some stunning CG action...many double intertwined CGs and even a paralleled tripple with intertwine that was just unreal...a few crawlers and this cell ended the day.

I would say its one of the more amazing chases i've had in Victoria in terms of providing a huge range of different chasing items...while the storms weren't the most intense and often died at frustrating moments the slow movement and atmospheric instability were superb...potential for alot of daytime CGs, organisation, funnels, and alot of interesting phenomena. I can only hope that the shear tomorrow is more favourable to ensure a greater longevity. I should also state that while we covered alot of distance we were constantly chasing one storm or another and had to adjust targets accordingly. Will post pics when I can ...damn pest control people coming in the morning...and Ill be out again tomorrow afternoon.

In terms of day two targets:
Shear environ is certainly going to be alot more interesting...probably more likely to get squall lines with a straight but strong hodograph...depends how it reacts to -4 LIs and CAPE to 1700. Chase time is probably going to be similar to today as there is reasonable CIN with the plays dying on dusk unless convection is sustained. I wouldn't play too far west either as it looks like that area will stabilise in the afternoon. So target area is west of Melbourne along the seabreeze/convergence line.
Explosive events coming to a weather system near you.

Offline Kristy Norman

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Hi John,
Good luck this evening with another chase.
I went for a walk last night and took some photos of a beautiful cell between Wodonga and Rutherglen.

Offline Kristy Norman

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A few more storms around this afternoon, very glad that this horrid humidity has given way to something. It seems that the moment these storms get organised and start to look impressive, they die!
We recieved 15mm of rain and small hail in a storm that came over at 4pm, very gusty.
Lots of CG's pumping down amongst it all.
« Last Edit: 11 February 2010, 11:29:30 AM by Kristy Norman »

Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Hi,

Got a couple of excited calls from Brad who is again with John chasing near Kilmore and surrounds. They were excited to see corkscrew updrafts, several wall clouds and beavr tails or inflow bands. Can't wait to hear more and see the pictures!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
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Offline Richary

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Fantastic photo John, I love it. If only something would happen here.

Just for the record today we had lots of nice buildup to the west, to the point I was keeping an eye on it while working on a roof at Ryde in case it started throwing out bolts. But everything stayed west and southwest of Sydney, with the sea breezes killing anything as it came off the mountains.

We did have a nice big anvil shelf come over the top from a storm a long way west so suspect the shear must have been pretty good up high.

Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Awesome to see such excellent activity! I will await even more images from today's chase - sounded exciting after a 1hour and 2 minute phone call!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
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Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Hi sorry guys had to change the topic.

We had a few thunderstorms again today like yesterday some went severe. The one I went on had some half decent shelf and base structure but nothing too exciting.





These photographs were taken at Bilpin

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
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Offline pingtang

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Heres a few videos from the last two days. I didnt encounter any organised or severe storms,however I did witness some nice lightning.

Video 1- I intercept a weak storm near Marulan. Some of the lightning is quite nice with some discharges containing 4-5cgs! Some nice thunder included as well,with some of the closer bolts getting to within a kilometre

nice staccato lightning

Video 2- a nice but distant cg near Moss Vale this evening. The colours behind this bolt were quite spectacular. As I shot this with my 5d mark II HD video, I was able to zoom in on the bolt without losing much quality.


sunset lightning near Moss Vale

Offline Brad Hannon

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Despite this ridiculous hour  :o I thought i'd post that John and I have a Thursday supercell count that goes into the teens (yes I know it sounds crazy but we'll put up the pics), two confirmed tornadoes (with video and pics), several others yet to be confirmed and require further investigation and a few more that we are very confident on (some were huge cone circulations practically on the ground)  but may not be able to verify due to obscured views (despite the MANY ominous photos that we'll post as soon as we can). Also note that this doesnt include the miriad of substantial wall clouds, vertical and horizontal funnels that tried over and over to touch down, laminar inflow bands, beaver tails, storm structure and greenage that was jaw dropping and a landspout.  We have a massive task ahead of us to go through this.  Oh, and we had a simply awesome chase on Wednesday too which was until today the best I had experienced in Aus by far!  After today I can barely remember it!  :d

Thanks to John for his excellent forcast and targeting and thanks also to Jimmy for the advice and contribution over the phone and also for his company on the phone for an hour in an otherwise lonely and uneventful drive through Central and Northern Victoria!  ;D

Brad
« Last Edit: 12 February 2010, 10:10:18 PM by Brad Hannon »
hmmm June 2nd......

Offline Michael Bath

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Terrific news about the tornado intercepts - very much looking forward to seeing some of the images.

Here's some data for the day

Melbourne morning sounding




GFS 06z analysis run showing winds in knots is rather revealing














The Melbourne Doppler is still offline which is a real shame.  Loops from Melbourne Airport and Yarrawonga radars are available.

128km Radar Loop for Melbourne AP, 00:00 11/02/2010 to 10:00 11/02/2010 UTC



256km Radar Loop for Yarrawonga, 00:00 11/02/2010 to 10:00 11/02/2010 UTC

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Offline Shaun Galman

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Hi guys,

Looks like VIC was the place to be this week! Glad you got out in it John and Brad, cant wait to see the photos, particularly of the structure and funnels!

Looks to be building around us (the Upper Western) here today. Nice Cu field and a few towers pushing up here and there. 36?c, very humid and a nice breeze to create a little shear.

I'll be ready for anything :D

Take care,
Shauno 
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Offline David C

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Terrific news about the tornado intercepts - very much looking forward to seeing some of the images.

Here's some data for the day


Are those radar loops correct? I'm struggling to see anything 'organised' in those loops?
« Last Edit: 13 February 2010, 01:12:44 PM by Jimmy Deguara »
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Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Hi John,

Quote
Based on the scans from the Yarrawonga radar, and using 3D rapic we have identified these cells to be low-topped supercells, with tops probably not extending above 5km.

Wow! Was that the very large HP supercell or the smaller LP looking storms you mentioned in our conversations?

Did Harald comment on the pictures of the tornadoes?

Where are the pictures guys - at least post one or two on here!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
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Offline Brad Hannon

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Hi all, this is the first of 3 posts with some samples of what we got each day:

Note - Just minor adjustments to exposure, curves and sharpening where required.

Tues 9th Feb











« Last Edit: 14 February 2010, 02:46:41 AM by Michael Bath »
hmmm June 2nd......

Offline Brad Hannon

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Wed 10th Feb:













hmmm June 2nd......