Hi,
Impressive storms you intercepted Northern Rivers crew! Good to see some action as well as some rain up there!
Chase Report 27th January 2010 - Capertee to Ilford to Mudgee supercells and stormsAfter analysing the models carefully this morning, my target was to head in the region - well basically where the storms occurred south of Mudgee and north of Lithgow. Modified CAPE values were in some cases in excess of 2000J/kg. GFS had very much underestimated the moisture! Furthermore, this was one of those dryline setups - moisture dropping off rapidly in the region near Bathurst to Orange and Dubbo. A strong cap was in place but models suggest this was going to be overcome by early afternoon!
Earlier, I was tempted to go after some storms that had developed to the northwest of Mudgee but I stopped and then turned back just after Gulgong. Small cumulus had developed to the south and knowing the potent environment these were going to feed off, I basically headed back south to near Ilford!
By now, a cumulus field had developed and a few storms were in the vicinity of Lithgow. In fact, David Croan called me to indicate a possible hook echo on the storms west of Warragamba further south. I would not have doubted this based on the hodographs.
The small storm
Supercell
My focus was now on trying to see what storms were dominating. A nearby cumulus albeit relatively small had exploded and developed an anvil. Should I chase this? There was another storm which this storm was now hiding from view so I made a quick check on the other side of the Cherry Tree Hill range to investigate - passing through some pretty heavy rain from the so-called small storm.
Low contrast wall cloud and supercell structure
I knew it! Supercell structure emerged but there were trees hindering my view. Finally an opportunity arose near Capertee. The cloud base was rather low and a wall cloud was visible but not the best contrast. I began to timelapse nevertheless. What was that sound? Huge drops of rain pelted down temporarily haulting the timelapse. I resumed further up the road when I realised the storm structure was still quite impressive and improving in contrast!
The structure was defintely a text book classic supercell wall cloud with inflow stinger! The base rotation was clearly visible in real time and now an RFD was also evident. Then a huge bolt and associated thunder! What seemed to be from nothing merge a hazy base - preciptation falling to its south. Another rather close bolt and thunder was sufficient warning to depart north.
Next supercell developing
The 'small storm' much larger
This storm rapidly developed and organised a base - and then later a wall cloud! To my northeast, the now not so small storm was also very well organised - nice separation between the base and precipitation. With rain iminent, I retreated back to ner Ilford. The storms although mature had amalgamated into a complex. I can't believe I had to let go three supercell cores in the quest of an isolated supercell.
Next supercell
Messy cores
That isolated storm came into view near Mudgee. Nick Moir suggested to hear for the cell near Gulgong. Yes I know the one - the one with a massive back shear nuckle on its anvil - but was that an anvil above the anvil? With such a large base, I decided to remain with the Mudgee storm. It made for impressive timelapse. The lightning was very frequent! Not sure if this was a supercell though.
Mammatus
Severe storm near Mudgee
Entering the core was exciting not to mention the tree I saw blown over! Hail was intercepted with this storm east of Mudgee after a couple of driving scans of the core and its downpour.
Tree that I saw fall as the microburst hit
Next stop - Gulgong with the possibility of intercepting the cell east of Mudgee. The cell looked quite impressive but was in a weakening phase. After some timelapse, I was alerted almost within quick succession of the cell approaching Merriwa (David and then Nick). I had made a quick dash for it but realising the time frame, I knew it was near impossible ( radar suggests that this was a wise move in hind sight as the storm weakened shortly after).
Gulgong storm
I passed through more hail immediately east of Mudgee - this time hail was of the order up to 1.5cm in diamater. Lightning and heavy rain occasionally interrupted my journey home ending a remarkable and rather intense chase day!
Regards,
Jimmy Deguara
