Topic: Winter Extremes 2009

[Colin Maitland]

Parts of WA  and Perth are in for another hammering today and tonight as more storms sweep their way across. They have been issued a severe warning from BOM
We don't seem to mention WA too much, but they have had some horrific storms this winter including the Bunbury tornado. Our weather patterns seem to build up somewhere in the roaring 40's, move up over Perth, lash the coast, move across the bite and hit SA and Vic then move up the SE Coast.

  

BOM warning: TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Widespread Damaging Winds
For people in the Lower West, Southwest, western parts of the Central Wheatbelt
and Great Southern districts and adjacent parts of the Central West District,
including the Perth metropolitan area, Mandurah, Bunbury and Busselton.

Issued at 1:00 pm on Monday 20 July 2009

A strong to gale force W/SW flow lies over the southwest of the state, with a
deep low pressure system forecast to lie just south of Albany by this evening.
Locally damaging winds to 100  kilometres per hour are possible during today. As
the low moves closer to the south coast, widespread damaging winds to 110
kilometres per hour that could result in damage to property are expected to
develop in the Southwest district early this afternoon, extending into remaining
parts later this afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorms and hail are likely throughout the warning area. Heavy surf
conditions are likely and significant beach erosion is possible.  

Winds are likely to gradually ease from the west overnight.

A wind gust to 106 kilometres per hour was reported from Cape Leeuwin earlier
this morning.

Col

[Colin Maitland]

this video footage shows some of the hail in WA yesterday. Unfortunately this seems to be only link for it so far, it is not on you tube yet, so you have to endure a 15sec. commercial which you can speed up a bit.     http://media.smh.com.au/national/breaking-news/perth-swept-by-storms-and-hail-641010.html

Winds peaked at 113km/h at Cape Leeuwin last night. There was reports of trees uprooted and damage to roofs from fallen trees and wind.

The weather pattern this winter is all over the place. Adelaide recorded its hottest July night in 7 years with 17C and was well above average with 21.7C max temp yesterday.

Brisbane: we seem to be in the pattern of Cold day of 16-17C, then a gradual increase to  25-26C then back down to 16-17C. This has been the pattern for the last month. It has been a winter where records are being broken for hot winter days or nights, then cold mornings or days right up through the tropics, seems to be a winter of extremes.

I was reading an article about the Antarctica and they have recorded the hottest July Temps for the last 10 years due to this years winter weather pattern. From ABC  News:      http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/17/2629221.htm

Scientists at Antarctica's Casey station have recorded the warmest July on record.

After weeks of blizzards, scientists at the station are now enjoying some relative warmth.

The maximum of 2.4 degrees and minimum of -3 are the warmest July temperatures since record keeping began at the station 20 years ago.

The Bureau of Meteorology's Steve Pendlebury says once-in-a-decade wind patterns are the likely cause.

"The air from the central Indian Ocean east of Africa somewhere, has moved all the way down right onto the Antarctic coast," he said.

The Station leader Graham Cook says it has started melting snow and is a welcome change.

He says scientists have been able to venture out into the field for the first time in a month.

[Colin Maitland]

In Brisbane on Thursday 23/07/09 we have a predicted 26C for the day. Tomorrow a top of 25C, the news reported it as spring in July.

The following article title  "No need for winter woolies" by Sam Terry from WZ news, Tuesday July 21, 2009  sums up the current extremes we are facing this winter. We have had snow last week as seen in previous threads in Vic, NSW and snow /sleet in QLD. Now we get to wear  board shorts and t shirts in QLD for the next few days. Any way the article reads as follows:

For the middle of winter the eastern states of Australia aren't feeling too chilly, with a warm day all the way from western Victoria through into northern Queensland.

A trough and front have been moving in from the west, driving a warm northerly air stream over NSW, VIC and QLD, allowing many districts to have their warmest July day in over a decade.

Melbourne topped at 19.6 degrees, seven above average, and the hottest July day in 15 years. It was also the hottest day in two months.

The Sydney Basin also saw the mercury rise significantly today, with every reporting location recording a maximum at least five above the July norm. The city itself peaked at 23, seven above average, and the hottest day in two months. Richmond, in the city's northwest, heated up to 24 degrees, the hottest July day in five years.

Even QLD was hot for this time of year. Brisbane's temperatures soared to 23 degrees, three above the long-term average. Tomorrow is set to get even hotter, with northwesterlies pushing the thermometer up to 25, potentially the second warmest day this winter.

[Colin Maitland]

Kristy84 stated in another thread that last night was rather warm for mid July where she lived, so I thought I would just check some of the overnight temps in Vic, NSW and SE QLD. The following  minimum recordings from BOM for Tuesday night/Wed morning, the 21/22/07/09 were:

Sydney Observatory Hill                  15.9C @ 12.09 am
Sydney Airport                              14.2C @12.51  am
Sydney Olympic Park                      17.4C @12.19  am    


Vic. Melbourne                              12.3C @ 3.15 am
Frankston                                     12.3C @ 2.43 am

SE QLD

Cape Moreton                              15.9C @ 7.27 am
Double Island Point                       17.1C @ 6.41 am

Cathy Alexander wrote an article on the 24th April 2009, which I posted a thread, called " Warm Autumn/ Winter for May June,"
stated that the The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting an Indian summer, with warm nights for almost all the country from May to July.
Balmy weather in the Indian Ocean is responsible for the winter reprieve.  

The timing may have been a little out with May and June rather cold with just below average temps, but it looks as if this system is kicking in for JulY.

As for the snow across NSW and VIC alps, they had between 50-100cm of Snow last week. But there was a bit of concern as a Northwesterly air stream ahead of a cold front, caused temperatures to rise above zero degrees. Snow reports have ground conditions on most resorts as soft or softening.

Mt Buller had 4C at 1700 M, its warmest day in a month. All other resorts reported much the same except for Hotham that stayed at Zero.

Forecasters say that more snow is on its way but " only small accumulations are likely from this system" ( WZ News)

Looking further ahead Sam Terry from WZ news reports " Further ahead, with the possibility of an El Nino looming in the not-so-distant future, snowfall prospects bring no comfort. Generally, the forecast for the rest of winter is for above average temperatures and below average rainfall."

From many articles I have read many forecaster are predicting El Nino to arrive shortly, how this will affect our storm season is yet to be seen.

Col.

[Colin Maitland]

From all reports Sydney had its hottest day July in 19 years with a top of 24.7C. They have classified this as a once in a decade event.
Surrounding areas were in a similar situation with temperatures 5 to 8C above average.

Camden had a top of 24.7C
Mascot topped the mercury with 25.5C both having their hottest day in 19 years.
Penrith reached 26.7 degrees, the first time in 13 years and that being 9C above the average for this time of year.
Homebush 25.1 and Canterbury 24.7  

These temps were caused by northwesterly winds at 50 km/h brought in warm air, clear skies and sunshine ahead of a cold front, which means tomorrow you are back in for some chili weather especially for Friday. ( The above info sourced from WZ news)

Brisbane we have a top of 26C with an overnight min of 14C tonight before our cold temps return, but not as severe as the previous few weeks.
I would say the Northern Coast is for much the same.

Snow has been falling once again on the VIC and NSW alps.

Good breeding ground for flues and bugs with the warm then cold weather within days of each other.

It seems the cycle continues and a winter of extreme persist, although  some forecasters say the worst may be over, but we will need to wait and see if this is correct.

Meanwhile back in Perth and WA the clean up continues after the savage storms from the weekend.  I was reading an article in which it stated that WA storm season runs from March to October, were wild winds and tornadoes are not uncommon

Cheers

Col
 

[Colin Maitland]

Researching through and Alice Springs in the Northern Terriotry had its coldest May day ever with a maximium of 9.8C on Saturday the 31/06/09.
Jenny Farlow from the weather bureau says "Saturday was the coldest May day ever recorded in Alice Springs.And it was only slightly warmer yesterday, reaching 10.8C.

Ironically after such a cold start, Alice Springs is now in line to have one of its warmest winters ever in central Australia.

As reported today the  23/07/09 , climatologist Todd Smith says "there have been 20 days above 25 degrees Celsius since the beginning of winter."

He went on to explain "Generally winds have been a bit more northerly rather than the cold south-easterlies that tend to push through during our winter months," he said.

"There's been a lot of low pressure systems pushing through the Great Australian Bight to the south of Australia and generally that's stopped the cold air really pushing up from down south"

"You know, minimum temperatures have been consistently above zero.

"Normally by about this time of the year we see sort of eight to 10 below zero minimums and we're still yet to see one this winter, so it's certainly been a bit warmer than normal.

Col

[Colin Maitland]

After  a week of comparatively mild nights, some as much as 8-10C above average, some parts of Victoria had its coldest morning in more than two years. As the high pressure system passed by it allowed the warm air to escape and temperatures to plummet. Most minimum temperatures were 4 to 6 C below average.
Stathbogie fell to -5C its coldest night in two years. Mildura and Mallee were -2C also their coldest night in two years.

Parts of the VIC and NSW Alps received between 4 to 10 cm of snow in the last 24 hours.

It has been a week and month of extremes with storms, wind, rain, hail, snow, heat and records broken for various reasons for many parts of Australia. For know its back to cold weather here in SE QLD and the southern areas of Australia.


Col

[Antonio (stormboy)]

I read on the weather zone forum that Seymour just north of Melbourne reached down to -4.8 this morning brrrrr.

[Colin Maitland]

The following extract is from a Weather Zone news article by Josh Fisher on Friday July 24 2009 titled Summer like warmth over northern WA.
It is reference to the warm summer like conditions felt in some parts of Western Australia as a result of warm tropical air that flowed through in front of a trough centered over the state. While cloud cover produced  little rain it also managed to keep temperatures in many areas down. However Josh Fisher states:

Where skies stayed clear today maximum temperatures were four to eight degrees above average. In the Pilbara, Telfer reached a top of 33 degrees, its warmest July day for at least 35 years when their records began. Fitzoy Crossing reached its normal maximum for January at 37 degrees and its warmest July day for 11 years. The warmth reached through the Interior with Balgo Hills receiving its warmest minimum and maximum temperatures since their records began 22 years ago with a range of 21 to 33 degrees.  The trough will began to push east and north with cooler temperatures pushing through much of the state tomorrow as winds become strong and shift southerly
 

[Peter J]

i read on the weather zone forum that Seymour just north of Melbourne reached down to -4.8 this morning brrrrr

For Northern Country VIC, that is freaking freezing! No wonder I was cold all day yesterday!

Big Pete

[Kristy Norman]

So far this winter has been very mild for our area. Usually in June and July we would get a lot of mornings with heavy frost and thick fog that may not lift until 1 or 2pm, then the fog would be back in by 5pm.
This year I could count on one hand good frosty mornings, and the fog has lifted by 10am at the latest. We have only had three foggy mornings this July which I would think would be well below the norm?
The following is an article in yesterday's The Border Mail:
 
 Nation In For Early Spring
No need to order in another load of firewood-the rest of winter is tipped to be mild across the whole country.
The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting warmer than usual temperatures for the period from August to October.
Anyone who wants to go skiing had better get moving now-days are tipped to be warm and nights mild as the green shoots of an early spring appear.
Queensland, NSW and Western Australia are forecast to be unusually hot, but all regions will be warmer than normal.
Warm water in the Indian and Pacific Oceans is responsible for the gentle weather forecast.
Much of eastern Australia is in for dry conditions over the next three months, the bureau says.
This is consistent with the bureau's forecast that an El Nino weather pattern is on It's it's way.
El Ninos sweep in from the Pacific and usually bring hot, dry weather to Australia. Experts expect one to hit later this year.

[Colin Maitland]

In Brisbane, it feels as though we may have a few more cold days here and there, maybe a westerly blast for the EKKA, (show), then an early spring. We have North Easters blowing in warming the days up. Curious to see whether the warmer than usual temps coming through in Northern NSW and Qld, and colder air from south,  may ignite a slightly earlier storm season ( late August), then peter out to lower than normal storm activity in SE QLD due to El Nino. With the warming of the ocean temps maybe a few more cyclones hugging the QLD coast this season, although, technically, there should be fewer of them.

Data from NOAA states that Global ocean temperatures rose to the warmest on record, according to data released last week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The combined average global land and ocean surface temperature for June was second-warmest since global recording-keeping began in 1880.

Col

 

[Michael Bath]

I think Penrith broke the record for its warmest July day (26.7 on 22nd) and the coldest day (11.2 on 26th) in the space of a week ?

MB

[Richary]

Not a big record but looks like Sydney will have it's dryest July for 5 years.

[Antonio (stormboy)]

I think that the cold air will be coming into NSW and part QLD tomorrow as lismore reached 1 today.