Updated: 17 June 2020
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WTXS21 PGTW 20040323 05:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 230521ZMAR2004//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S4 100.4E5 TO 15.0S6 96.5E0
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 230300Z8 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0S6 99.7E5. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9S4 100.9E0, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6 99.7E5, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTHEAST OF
THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER
A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS FAVORABLE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED AT 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
240530Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040323 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230521ZMAR2004//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z8 --- NEAR 14.7S2 98.5E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 98.5E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z6 --- 14.6S1 97.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 14.6S1 96.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 14.8S3 95.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 15.2S8 94.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 98.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S, IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, AND
HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 231130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231108Z5
QUIKSCAT PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND QUIKSCAT WINDS DEPICTING 35 TO 40 KNOTS
NEAR THE CENTER. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES A BANDING FEATURE
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS
THAT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO CYCLE DURING THE
PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTED A VERY WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION, WHILE OVERALL THE DEEP CONVECTION WAS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT REMAINS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN A FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP
GFS, WBAR, AND EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NOGAPS IS AN
EQUATORWARD OUTLIER, WHICH JTWC ATTRIBUTES TO INTERACTION WITH TC 18S EAST OF
THE SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE AIDS MINUS NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z8 IS
10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 230521Z
MAR2004 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 230530)
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z9 AND 241500Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
18S (FAY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040324 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z6 --- NEAR 14.6S1 96.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 96.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z9 --- 14.7S2 95.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 14.9S4 93.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 15.5S1 92.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 16.0S7 91.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z9 POSITION NEAR 14.6S1 96.5E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (OSCAR), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
SOUTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, AND HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 232330Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
232337Z0 QUIKSCAT PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND A 232337Z0 QUIKSCAT
PASS DEPICTING 45 TO 50 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER. A RECENT 232335Z8
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A BANDING EYE BEGINNING TO FORM, WHILE
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD
DIRECTION. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT REMAINS UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE AXIS IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, WBAR, GFDN AND EGRR
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NOGAPS IS AN EQUATORWARD
OUTLIER, INITIALIZES ON THE SYSTEM AS A WEAK CIRCULATION, AND
FORECASTS IT TO REMAIN THAT WAY. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON
NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z6 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 241500Z2 AND 250300Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
(FAY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040324 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z9 --- NEAR 14.6S1 95.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S1 95.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z7 --- 15.0S6 93.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 15.5S1 92.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 15.9S5 92.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 16.5S2 91.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 94.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (OSCAR), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, AND HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 241130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
241210Z0 MICROWAVE PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. THE 241210Z0 MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATES A BANDING EYE BEGINNING TO FORM, WHILE ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. TC 20S
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THEREAFTER, A TRANSIENT MID-LAT TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE,
ALLOWING TC 20S TO DIP A LITTLE POLEWARD. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS AS
IT REMAINS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THEREAFTER, IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SOME WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AS IT REACHES IT'S MAX INTENSITY. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, TCLAPS, NCEP GFS, WBAR, GFDN AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z9 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z0 AND 251500Z3. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040325 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z7 --- NEAR 15.6S2 94.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 94.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z0 --- 16.3S0 93.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 16.9S6 92.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 17.3S1 90.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 18.0S9 88.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 93.7E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (OSCAR), IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260
NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN,
AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 242330Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INDICATES A BANDING EYE AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLIGHTLY
POLEWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE
WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE. AFTER TAU 24 THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD BACK IN AND TRACK TC 20S SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN A
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, TCLAPS, NCEP GFS, WBAR, GFDN AND EGRR ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250000Z7 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z3 AND 260300Z1.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040325 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z0 --- NEAR 16.1S8 92.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S8 92.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z8 --- 16.8S5 91.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 17.5S3 91.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 18.0S9 90.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 18.7S6 89.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z3 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 92.6E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (OSCAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
251130Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 20S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLIGHTLY POLEWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
AS A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE WEAKENS THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. BEYOND TAU 24 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD BACK IN AND TRACK TC 20S SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD
OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, TCLAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z0 IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z1 AND 261500Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040326 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z8 --- NEAR 16.9S6 92.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 92.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 17.6S4 91.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 18.1S0 90.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 18.6S5 90.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 19.3S3 89.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.1S9 92.3E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (OSCAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 252330Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS.
ANIMATED IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE INDICATE THAT TC 20S HAS
INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SLIGHTLY POLEWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS
A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE WEAKENS THE MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. BEYOND TAU 12 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD BACK IN AND TRACK TC 20S SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF GOOD
OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, TLAPS, TCLAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN AND EGRR ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260000Z8 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 AND
270300Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040326 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z1 --- NEAR 17.5S3 92.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S3 92.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 18.0S9 91.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 18.7S6 90.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 19.6S6 90.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 20.6S8 89.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 17.6S4 91.9E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (OSCAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
410 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 261130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID
LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM RESULTING FROM A
EASTWARD PROPAGATING SHORTWAVE. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A BREAKDOWN OF THE PREVIOUSLY WELL DEFINED
EYE AND WEAKENING IN TC 20S AS IT CROSSES THE AXIS OF THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC 20S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT
A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE OUTFLOW
AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, TLAPS, TCLAPS, NCEP GFS AND GFDN ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH EGRR AN OUTLIER TO THE WEST.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270300Z2 AND 271500Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040327 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z9 --- NEAR 18.2S1 91.4E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 91.4E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 19.3S3 91.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 20.4S6 90.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 21.8S1 90.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 23.2S7 91.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.5S4 91.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (OSCAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
480 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 20S
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, TLAPS, TCLAPS, NCEP GFS, AFWA, EGRR
AND GFDN ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5 AND 280300Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040327 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z2 --- NEAR 19.1S1 90.6E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S1 90.6E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 20.4S6 89.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 21.6S9 89.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z1 --- 23.1S6 89.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z4 --- 24.8S4 90.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 90.4E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (OSCAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
540 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
TC 20S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. BY TAU 24, TC 20S WILL PASS THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN
TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WHILE INTERACTING WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 20S WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO A VERY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
DECREASED OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, GFDN, TLAPS, TCLAPS, NCEP GFS, AFWA, AND EGRR ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z2 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 AND 281500Z6.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (FAY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20040328 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (OSCAR-ITSENG) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z0 --- NEAR 19.7S7 89.1E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S7 89.1E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 20.8S0 88.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 20.0S2 89.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (OSCAR-ITSENG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
625 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 272330Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS ENDED OVER TC 20S. ANALYSIS OF UPPER LEVEL
WINDS SHOWS THAT TC 20S ENCOUNTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR MORE RESULTING IN DRAMATIC
WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF TC
20S IS FORECASTED TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG SO TC 20S IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REINTENSIFY. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP
GFS, AFWA, AND EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z0
IS 18 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_oscar-itseng_jtwc_advisories.htm
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