Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone BENI : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2003-2004 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone BENI Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20031108 22:00z RTD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 082200ZNOV2003//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.6S0 79.5E1 TO 7.8S5 76.6E9
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 111730Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 5.0S5 79.1E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.0S5 79.3E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0S5 79.1E7, APPROXIMATELY
425 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED AND THE SYSTEM IS CONSOLIDATING INTO A POSSIBLE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A POINT
SOURCE OVER THE REGION SUPPORTING THE OBSERVED RADIAL OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE
TO IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 092152Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031109 09:00z
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST //SID 80//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082200ZNOV2003//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 5.9S4 78.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.9S4 78.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 6.6S2 78.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 7.2S9 77.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 7.8S5 77.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 8.5S3 77.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 6.1S7 78.6E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 090530Z7 MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS ALONG A LOW LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 02S IS EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A MODERATE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z5 IS 14 FEET. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 082200Z
NOV 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 082152)
NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 AND 100900Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031109 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 6.8S4 77.5E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.8S4 77.5E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 7.6S3 76.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 8.0S8 75.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 8.2S0 75.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 8.7S5 75.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 7.0S7 77.2E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH 48 HOURS ALONG A LOW LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CAUSE TC 02S TO SLOW
DOWN NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
IN A MODERATE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091800Z8 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 AND 102100Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031110 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- NEAR 6.8S4 77.2E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.8S4 77.2E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 7.2S9 76.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 7.7S4 74.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 7.8S5 74.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 7.9S6 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 6.9S5 76.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 092330Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION OF TC 02S WITH SPIRAL BANDS BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND CURRENT STORM MOTION SHOWS THAT TC 02S
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO DIEGO GARCIA THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY
FORECASTED. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48
HOURS ALONG A LOW LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
APPROACH OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CAUSE TC 02S SLOW
DOWN NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. RECURVATURE OF TC 02C TO
THE SOUTHEAST IS STILL EXPECTED BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE IN A MODERATE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0,
101500Z7, 102100Z4 AND 110300Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031110 09:00z
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST //SID 80//
DIRNSA FT GEORGE MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 7.1S8 76.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.1S8 76.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 7.5S2 74.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 7.8S5 73.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 8.0S8 73.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 8.2S0 72.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 9.6S5 73.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 7.2S9 75.6E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 MULTI-
SPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 30 AND
35 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
WITH SPIRAL BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL. TC 02S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 TO 48
HOURS AND THEN MORE POLEWARD BY 72 HOURS ALONG A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET (EGRR) ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
IN A MODERATE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7, 102100Z4,
110300Z5 AND 110900Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031110 15:00z
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST //SID 80//
DIRNSA FT GEORGE MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- NEAR 7.4S1 75.4E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.4S1 75.4E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 7.6S3 74.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 7.8S5 73.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 8.0S8 72.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 8.3S1 71.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 9.9S8 71.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 7.4S1 75.1E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED IN SPEED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 02S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 TO 48
HOURS ALONG A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
AFTER 48 HOURS, TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE STEERING
RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED MORE NORTH-SOUTH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, UKMET (EGRR), AND THE BETA
ADVECTION MODELS, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. TC 02S
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A MODERATE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 102100Z4, 110300Z5, 110900Z1 AND 111500Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031110 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 7.4S1 75.2E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.4S1 75.2E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 7.5S2 74.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 7.6S3 73.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 7.7S4 72.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 7.9S6 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 9.1S0 70.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 07.4S1 075.0E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170
NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 101730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS REDUCED SPEED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48
HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER 48 HOURS, TC 02S IS
EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS.
TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A MODERATE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0
IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5, 110900Z1, 111500Z8
AND 112100Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031111 03:00z
NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- NEAR 7.5S2 74.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.5S2 74.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 7.6S3 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 7.7S4 72.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 7.9S6 71.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 8.3S1 71.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 9.4S3 70.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 07.5S2 074.5E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140
NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 102330Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER 48 HOURS,
TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE
REORIENTS. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET (EGRR)
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z1, 111500Z8, 112100Z5 AND 120300Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031111 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 7.4S1 74.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 7.4S1 74.7E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 7.5S2 73.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 7.7S4 72.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 8.1S9 71.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 8.9S7 70.7E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 10.9S0 69.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 7.4S1 74.5E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130
NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 110530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35, 45, AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
WEAK MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
AFTER 48 HOURS, TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE
STEERING RIDGE BUILDS AND REORIENTS. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU
72. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP
GFS, AND GFDN ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
NOGAPS AND NCEP GFS BUILDS THE MID LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE IN VERY QUICKLY AND TAKES TC 02S ON A POLEWARD TRACK
WITHIN TAU 12. GFDN IS THE WESTERN OUTLIER AS IT DOES
NOT HAVE THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN UNTIL TAU 36 TO 48.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE THREE
DYNAMIC AIDS WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON GFDN. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 111500Z8, 112100Z5, 120300Z6 AND 120900Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031111 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- NEAR 7.7S4 74.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 7.7S4 74.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 8.1S9 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 8.6S4 73.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 9.3S2 72.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 10.2S3 72.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 12.5S8 71.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 7.8S5 74.3E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110
NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 111130Z7 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 02S IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. BY TAU 48, THE STEERING RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST AND DRIVE TC 02S POLEWARD WHILE SLIGHTLY INCREASING IN
SPEED. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS,
UKMET EGRR, AND GFDN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FOUR DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND 121500Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031111 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BENI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- NEAR 8.1S9 74.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 8.1S9 74.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 8.6S4 73.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 9.3S2 73.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 10.2S3 72.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 11.4S6 72.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 13.6S0 71.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 08.2S0 074.0E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 111730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48 AND
THEN START TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AT TAU 72 AS IT ENTERS INTO
AN AREA OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 111800Z1 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND 120900Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031112 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BENI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- NEAR 8.6S4 74.3E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6S4 74.3E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 9.1S0 74.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 9.9S8 73.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 10.7S8 73.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 12.0S3 73.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 14.1S6 71.3E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 08.7S5 074.2E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
130 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED
STEADY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE EAST OF TC 02S CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE STEERING
FLOW FOR THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, TC 02S IS CURRENTLY IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT CREATED BY THE MID LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
WEST. AS THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS AND EXTENDS POLEWARD,
TC 02S WILL INCREASE SPEED SLIGHTLY. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH TAU 36 AND THEN START TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. BY TAU
72, TC 02S WILL ENTER INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH THE TROPICAL EASTERLIES IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PRODUCING WESTERLIES ALOFT.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
UKMET EGRR AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2, 121500Z9, 122100Z6
AND 130300Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031112 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BENI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- NEAR 9.3S2 74.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S2 74.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 10.3S4 74.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 11.3S5 74.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 12.4S7 73.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 13.4S8 72.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 9.6S5 74.4E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
160 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55
AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE CONVECTION HAS STARTED
TO DECREASE OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE EAST OF TC 02S CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE STEERING
FLOW FOR THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 36, THE STEERING RIDGE WILL REORIENT
AND EXTEND POLEWARD OF TC 02S GIVING THE SYSTEM A SOUTHWEST TRACK.
TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH TAU 24 TO 36 AND THEN START TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A DECREASE IN OUTFLOW ALOFT.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN,
UKMET EGRR AND NCEP GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 AND 130900Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031112 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BENI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z2 --- NEAR 10.0S1 74.6E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S1 74.6E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 10.8S9 74.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 11.6S8 74.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 12.7S0 74.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 13.6S0 73.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM
---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 10.2S3 74.6E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS INCREASED CONVECTION AND CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION ALLOWING TC 02S TO
REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH. THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW OF TC 02S HAS BEEN ENHANCED
BY A MAJOR TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF TC 02S. TC 02S
CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE STEERING FLOW WILL
TRANSITION TO A STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING TC 02S TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE. THERE HAS BEEN A CHANGE
IN REASONING FOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF TC 02S. THE TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE SOUTH
OF TC 02S, ACTING AS AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW MECHANISM FOR TC 02S, SHOULD
MOVE EASTWARD TO BE FOLLOWED BY HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN. THIS SHOULD SEE
THE INTENSIFICATION RATE DECREASE SOON. HOWEVER, TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET EGRR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. EGGR AND THE GFS EXPECT A STRONGER STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
RESULTING IN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK SOONER; NOGAPS AND GFDN RESOLVE A WEAKER
RIDGE AND ULTIMATELY A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z2 IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3 AND 132100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031113 09:00z
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST //SID 80//
DIRNSA FT GEORGE MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BENI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z0 --- NEAR 10.9S0 75.1E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S0 75.1E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 11.6S8 75.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 12.6S9 75.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 13.5S9 75.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 14.3S8 74.8E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM
---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 11.1S3 75.2E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 130530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. A 1310418Z8 SSM/I PASS AND
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A 15 NM EYE AND THE
SYSTEM BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD, TURNING TC 02S ON A SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BUILDS AND
CUTS OFF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, UKMET EGRR, AND NCEP GFS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. NCEP GFS BUILDS A
BUFFER TO THE NORTH AND TURNS THE SYSTEM EQUATORWARD AFTER 24 HOURS. NOGAPS
AND UKMET BUILD THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, BUT UKMET TURNS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD
EARLIER. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON NCEP GFS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z0
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 AND 140900Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031113 21:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BENI) WARNING NR 015A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- NEAR 11.5S7 76.1E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 76.1E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 12.3S6 76.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 13.2S6 77.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 14.3S8 77.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 15.4S0 76.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 11.7S9 76.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
131730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
102 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST
THAT GAVE TC 02S IT'S EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW YESTERDAY IS NOW
CREATING AN UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. A 131444Z7 SSM/I
PASS SHOWS THAT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST 6
TO 12 HOURS WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NEARLY FULLY EXPOSED.
ANALYSIS OF THE 200 MB WIND FIELDS FROM THE UW CIMSS CHART SHOWS
THAT TC 02S IS SIGNIFICANTLY EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. FOR THESE REASONS, THE FORECAST FOR TC 02S HAS CHANGED
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TC 02S TO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 02S IS CURRENTLY BEING HELD AT A CURRENT SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 100 KNOTS, BUT IS FORECASTED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE
TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ONLY AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW BEGINS TO
RAPIDLY DECLINE DUE TO THE LOSS OF CONVECTION. TC 02S MAY SEE SOME SLIGHT
REINTENSIFICATION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SHEAR PROPAGATES
EASTWARD. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS FOR TC 02S TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
OPEN WATER AND CEASE TO EXIST AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. TH
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NCEP GFS, GFDN, AND
NOGAPS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. BOTH EGGR AND NCEP GFS
DEPICT UNREALISTIC TRACKS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO
THE NORTH. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON EGGR AND NCEP GFS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND 142100Z8.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED WIND SPEED AND WIND RADII IN ALL
FORECAST TIMES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031114 09:00z
UNCLAS //N03145//
PASS TO OFFICE CODES:
PSBR BCST //SID 80//
DIRNSA FT GEORGE MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BENI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 12.4S7 77.3E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 77.3E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 13.2S6 78.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 14.2S7 78.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 15.1S7 77.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 15.8S4 77.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 77.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 140530Z3
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS GETTING SHEARED,
BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TC 02S TO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 02S IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NCEP GFS,
AND NOGAPS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. BOTH EGRR AND
NCEP GFS DEPICT UNREALISTIC TRACKS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND
OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON EGRR AND NCEP GFS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 142100Z8 AND 150900Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031114 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BENI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- NEAR 13.2S6 78.5E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 78.5E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 14.0S5 79.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 14.6S1 79.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 15.1S7 79.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 15.7S3 78.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 13.4S8 78.8E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
495 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 141730Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE
SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
BUT CONTINUES TO HAVE CYCLING CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER, A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TC 02S TO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LOSES THE GOOD OUTFLOW,
AND DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING
OF UKMET (EGRR), NCEP GFS, AND NOGAPS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. BOTH EGRR AND NCEP GFS DEPICT UNREALISTIC TRACKS
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF NGPS AND THE BETA
ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS
25 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z5 AND 152100Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031115 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BENI) WARNING NR 018 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z2 --- NEAR 13.1S5 78.7E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S5 78.7E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 13.6S0 79.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 14.2S7 78.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 14.7S2 77.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 15.3S9 76.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 13.2S6 78.9E4.
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TROPICAL CYCLONE
(TC) 02S (BENI) IS FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED.
BASED ON THIS VISIBLE IMAGERY, WE RELOCATED THE POSITION
ABOUT 30 NM NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION (14/18Z).
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 150530Z4 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 30, 35, AND 45 KNOTS. 200 MB ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING MODERATE WESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER, A
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION
TC 02S TO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECREASED
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND ENCOUNTERS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF UKMET (EGRR), NCEP GFS,
AND NOGAPS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. BOTH EGRR AND
NCEP GFS DEPICT UNREALISTIC TRACKS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF NOGAPS AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z9 AND 160900Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031115 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BENI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z5 --- NEAR 13.8S2 78.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8S2 78.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 14.4S9 77.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 77.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 151730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS. 200 MB ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TC 02S IS
ENCOUNTERING INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE CONVECTION
HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
UPPER LEVELS ARE BEING STEERED EASTWARD BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AND THE LOWER LEVELS ARE BEING STEERED IN A WESTWARD DIRECTION
BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151800Z5 IS 16 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031117 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BENI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z7 --- NEAR 11.7S9 76.1E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S9 76.1E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 11.4S6 75.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 11.2S4 73.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 11.2S4 72.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 11.3S5 71.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.6S8 75.8E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS REGENERATED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS
AND TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED AND RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, AS WELL AS
MICROWAVE SATELLITE AND QUIKSCAT PASSES REVEAL THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS MORE PERSISTENT AND IS AGAIN CO-LOCATED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ORGANIZATION IN THE LLCC IS
MUCH IMPROVED AS WELL. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK IN A WESTWARD
DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENTRAIN SOME DRY
AIR AFTER THE EARLY PERIOD, AND TO TRACK THROUGH AN AREA OF
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE
TO THE MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY ONLY SLIGHTLY, AND TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 171800Z7 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z8 AND 182100Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031118 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BENI) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z5 --- NEAR 11.0S2 74.5E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S2 74.5E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 10.6S7 73.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 10.4S5 71.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 10.4S5 70.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 10.4S5 68.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION NEAR 10.9S0 74.1E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
180530Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS.
200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER
AND RESULTING RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. IR TEMPERATURE
ESTIMATES INDICATE THE IMPENDING DEVELOPMENT OF AN EYE. TC 02S IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE
IS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD STEER
TC 02S WESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180600Z5 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 AND 190900Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031118 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BENI) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- NEAR 11.4S6 74.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S6 74.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 11.4S6 72.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 11.3S5 70.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 11.3S5 69.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 11.0S2 67.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 11.4S6 73.6E6. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181800Z8 IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 AND 192100Z3.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031119 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BENI) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z6 --- NEAR 12.2S5 72.9E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 72.9E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 12.9S2 71.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 13.1S5 69.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 13.1S5 67.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 12.8S1 65.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION NEAR 12.4S7 72.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 190530Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A SMALL 12 NM EYE. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 AS IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS
OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER 24 HOURS AN APPROACHING LOW LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GUIDE THE SYSTEM MORE ON A WESTWARD TRACK. TC 02S IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN MAINTAIN INTENSITY
THROUGH 48 HOURS AS OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD AND SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z3
AND 200900Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031119 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BENI) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z9 --- NEAR 12.5S8 72.1E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 72.1E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 12.7S0 70.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 12.7S0 68.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 12.5S8 66.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 12.1S4 63.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION NEAR 12.5S8 71.7E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 191730Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65, 77, AND 90 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE EYE HAS FALLEN APART.
TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER 24 HOURS AN APPROACHING LOW LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GUIDE THE SYSTEM MORE ON A WESTWARD
TRACK. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS AND THEN START WEAKENING AFTER TAU 24 THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 191800Z9 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z1
AND 202100Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031120 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BENI) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z8 --- NEAR 12.6S9 71.3E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S9 71.3E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 12.7S0 70.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 12.9S2 68.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 13.1S5 67.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 13.5S9 64.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.6S9 71.1E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 200530Z0 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DECREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 02S IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 36 AS TC 02S ENCOUNTERS
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN OUTFLOW ALOFT AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200600Z8 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z5 AND 210900Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20031120 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BENI) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z1 --- NEAR 13.2S6 69.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S6 69.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 13.2S6 66.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 13.1S5 64.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION NEAR 13.2S6 68.5E9. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 201800Z2 IS 15 FEET.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MON�
ITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_beni_jtwc_advisories.htm
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