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Tropical Cyclone BABIOLA : JTWC Advisories
Season 1999-2000 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH]
---> Tropical Cyclone BABIOLA Track Map and Data

WTXS21 PGTW 20000105 14:30z
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041651Z JAN 00//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 041700
COR)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2S4 84.3E5 TO 16.4S1 81.1E0
WITHIN THE NEXT 04 TO 24 HOURS.   AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 051130Z0 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 11.8S0 83.9E0.   THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY WEAKENING
CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 4 HOURS. A 051209Z7 SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS SHOWS ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION JUST
NORTH OF THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). SYNOPT
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000105 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z4 --- NEAR 12.2S5 82.8E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 82.8E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 13.2S6 81.3E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 14.1S6 79.9E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 14.7S2 78.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 15.1S7 76.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            085 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR  12.5S8  82.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN
OCEAN AND TRACKED TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 051700Z3 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING CONSOLIDATION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGE REVEALED THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. THE
STRONGER WINDS, HOWEVER, ARE GRADUALLY FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE. TC 04S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER THE INITIAL
24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE DURING THE INITIAL 36 HOURS. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR MAY
BEGIN TO INHIBIT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION BEYOND THIS PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 051421Z JAN 00 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 051430 ) NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z5 (DTG 060751Z9) AND 062100Z9 (DTG 061951Z2).
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000106 09:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BABIOLA) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z2 --- NEAR 12.9S2 81.5E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S2 81.5E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z5 --- 13.8S2 80.1E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 14.9S4 78.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 15.5S1 76.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 115 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 16.1S8 73.9E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 13.1S5 81.1E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BABIOLA) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
630 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA AND HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 060530Z4 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING
CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 04S (BABIOLA) IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS NORTHWARD. TC 04S (BABIOLA)
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
DURING THE INITIAL 24 HOURS. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR MAY
BEGIN TO SLOW INTENSIFICATION BEYOND THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 062100Z9 (DTG 061951Z2) AND 070900Z6 (DTG 070751Z0).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000106 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BABIOLA) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z5 --- NEAR 14.0S5 80.5E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 80.5E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z3 --- 15.0S6 79.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 15.9S5 77.4E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            035 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 16.5S2 75.2E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 17.1S9 73.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 14.3S8   80.2E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BABIOLA) IS LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA
AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 061730Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
PREVIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
RELATIVELY STEADY CONVECTION WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTION. TC 04S
(BABIOLA) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTERACTION WITH A
LONGWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF MADAGASCAR,
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING THE SYSTEM MORE TOWARDS
THE SOUTH AFTER THIS PERIOD. TC 04S (BABIOLA) IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
DURING THE INITIAL 24 TO 36 HOURS. INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION BEYOND THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 (DTG 070751Z0) AND 072100Z0 (DTG
071951Z3).
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000107 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BABIOLA) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070600Z3 --- NEAR 14.7S2 78.4E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 78.4E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z6 --- 15.3S9 76.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 15.8S4 74.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 16.3S0 72.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 16.8S5 69.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 77.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BABIOLA) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
560 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED UPON 070530Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT CONVECTION BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 04S (BABIOLA)
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 04S (BABIOLA) IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE DURING THE
INITIAL 24 HOURS. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOW INTENSIFICATION
BEYOND THIS PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3 IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0 (DTG 071951Z3)
AND 080900Z7 (DTG 080751Z1).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000107 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BABIOLA) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z6 --- NEAR 15.6S2 76.0E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 76.0E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 16.1S8 74.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            015 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 16.6S3 72.0E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 17.1S9 69.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 130 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 17.7S5 67.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            105 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 75.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BABIOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
540 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED UPON 071730Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. A 071539Z5 TROPICAL RAINFALL
MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTH WRAPPING
IN TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND THE TRMM PASS DEPICTED
ANOTHER BAND DEVELOPING ABOUT 180 NM WEST OF THE LLCC.
TC 04S (BABIOLA) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED SOUTHEAST
OF TC 04S IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
TC 04S (BABIOLA) IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 (DTG 080751Z1) AND 082100Z1 (DTG
081951Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (NONAME) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000108 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BABIOLA) WARNING NR 006
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z4 --- NEAR 16.4S1 73.6E6
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 73.6E6
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 17.1S9 71.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 18.0S9 68.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 18.9S8 66.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 19.4S4 63.8E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 73.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BABIOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
080530Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77
KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS FORMED A BANDING EYE. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THE STRONGER WINDS REMAIN WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE STRONG CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WHICH WRAPS INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS CHARTS AND THE 200 MB
ANALYSIS SHOW THAT OUTFLOW OVER TC 04S (BABIOLA) HAS IMPROVED DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 04S (BABIOLA) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 36 HOUR POINT UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO ITS SOUTH. AFTER THE
36 HOUR POINT, TC 04S (BABIOLA) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE WESTWARD
AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST
OF MADAGASCAR. TC 04S (BABIOLA) IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 (DTG
081951Z4) AND 090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
05P (IRIS) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000108 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BABIOLA) WARNING NR 007
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z7 --- NEAR 17.1S9 71.0E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S9 71.0E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 18.1S0 68.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 135 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            110 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 19.3S3 66.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 20.3S5 64.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 145 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 21.1S4 63.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                                   OVER WATER
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 70.4E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BABIOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 789 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
081730Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH TWO DEVELOPING
CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD ALL QUADRANTS WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH REMAINING OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 04S (BABIOLA) IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 36 HOUR POINT THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. TC 04S (BABIOLA)
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 (DTG 090751Z2) AND 092100Z2 (DTG
091951Z5). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (IRIS) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000109 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BABIOLA) WARNING NR 008
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090600Z5 --- NEAR 18.1S0 69.0E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 125 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            100 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 69.0E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 19.2S2 66.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            060 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 20.7S9 64.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 22.7S1 63.1E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 24.9S5 62.3E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            080 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
                            135 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 18.4S3 68.4E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BABIOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
090530Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 25 NM
IRREGULAR EYE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH INCREASING DEEP
CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. 200 MB
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS INTO THE UPPER
LEVELS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. A
090007Z6 TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) PASS AND A
090406Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICT AN EYEWALL WITH
A BANDING FEATURE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WRAPPING TOWARD THE LLCC.
TC 04S (BABIOLA) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
36 HOUR POINT THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR.
TC 04S (BABIOLA) IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z5 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 (DTG 091951Z5) AND
100900Z0 (DTG 100751Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (IRIS)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000109 21:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BABIOLA) WARNING NR 009
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z8 --- NEAR 19.4S4 67.5E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 67.5E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 20.9S1 66.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            125 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 22.9S3 66.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            065 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 155 NM SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 25.2S9 67.1E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            135 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 28.1S1 70.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            070 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            135 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.8S8 67.3E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BABIOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
091730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. TC 04S (BABIOLA)
CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED (IR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SHAPED, INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A
20 NM RAGGED EYE. A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BAND HAS DEVELOPED
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. WATER
VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY REVEAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 04S (BABIOLA) IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, TC 04S SHOULD
TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER
EQUATORWARD, BETWEEN DIEGO GARCIA AND COCOS ISLAND, AND A MAJOR
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EAST OF MADAGASCAR MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD
THE SYSTEM. TC 04S (BABIOLA) IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTERWARD, TC 04S
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE UNDER THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN TO
UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 (DTG 100751Z4) AND 102100Z4 (DTG 101951Z7).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (IRIS) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000110 09:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BABIOLA) WARNING NR 010
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z7 --- NEAR 20.6S8 67.2E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S8 67.2E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 21.8S1 67.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            055 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 24.3S9 67.7E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            120 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 27.5S4 69.9E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            130 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 30.5S8 72.6E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            045 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            115 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 20.9S1 67.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BABIOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
EAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON 100530Z9 VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND
INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A INTENSE SYSTEM. TC 04S NO
LONGER MAINTAINS AN EYE, AND IS BEGINNING TO ELONGATE. THE SYSTEM
HAS BEGUN TO MERGE WITH A TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INDIAN OCEAN. TC 04S (BABIOLA) WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS, THEN MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE
SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVE TOWARDS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 (DTG 101951Z7) AND 110900Z1 (DTG 110751Z5).
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (IRIS) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000110 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BABIOLA) WARNING NR 011
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z0 --- NEAR 22.6S0 67.6E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            040 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 120 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            095 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S0 67.6E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 24.8S4 68.3E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 095 NM EAST SEMICIRCLE
                            075 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 26.7S5 69.3E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            050 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 29.1S2 71.4E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 31.9S3 74.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE
                            030 NM ELSEWHERE
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 23.1S6 67.8E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BABIOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
101730Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS AND A RECENT TROPICAL
RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) IMAGE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED DUE TO SHEAR FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MERGE WITH A TROUGH MOVING
RAPIDLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. TC 04S (BABIOLA) WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN MOVE
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101800Z0 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 (DTG 110751Z5) AND
112100Z5 (DTG 111951Z8). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (IRIS)
WARNING (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL UPDATE.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000111 09:00z
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BABIOLA) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   110600Z8 --- NEAR 23.7S2 68.4E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
                            090 NM ELSEWHERE
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S2 68.4E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 25.9S6 69.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 28.5S5 71.8E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 31.2S6 75.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 24.2S8 68.7E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BABIOLA), HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED UPON
110530Z0 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND
SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED DUE TO THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM HAS MERGED WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, AND BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 04S
(BABIOLA) WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, MOVING
MORE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, AND
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 (DTG 111951Z8) AND 120900Z2 (DTG 120751Z6).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000111 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BABIOLA) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z1 --- NEAR 25.8S5 68.8E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.8S5 68.8E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z9 --- 27.8S7 70.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 29.6S7 71.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 31.3S7 72.5E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 26.3S1 69.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BABIOLA), HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
UPON 111730Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR
MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI) PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED UPON
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT SSMI PASS SHOW AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE CONVECTION SHEARED 85 NM TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. THE SYSTEM HAS MERGED WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. TC 04S (BABIOLA) WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN, AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 36 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 (DTG 120751Z6) AND 122100Z6 (DTG
121951Z9).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20000112 09:00z    
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BABIOLA) WARNING NR 014    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120600Z9 --- NEAR 27.8S7 70.0E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.8S7 70.0E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z2 --- 30.1S4 71.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z0 --- 32.5S0 73.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 28.4S4 70.4E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BABIOLA), HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD 
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED 
UPON 120530Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED UPON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120330Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR 
MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS DEPICT AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM TO THE 
SOUTH. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT TC 04S (BABIOLA) HAS BEGUN 
TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. IN PARTICULAR, THE 500 MB 
TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH TC 04S (BABIOLA) AND IS JUST 
WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE 200 MB JET AXIS IS ABOUT 2 DEGREES SOUTH OF 
TC 04S (BABIOLA). UW-CIMSS CHARTS SHOW THAT TC 04S (BABIOLA) IS 
MOVING UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) UNDER TC 04S (BABIOLA) ARE APPROXIMATELY 
23 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 04S (BABIOLA) SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 04S (BABIOLA) WILL 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE JET, AND ALSO DUE TO THE COOLER SST. TC 04S 
(BABIOLA) SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE 24 HOUR 
POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z9 IS 12 FEET.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON 
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY 
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.


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Document: tropical_cyclone_babiola_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 4 September 2016