Author Topic: Hurricane Ike: From 1st of September 2008  (Read 18006 times)

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Offline Mike

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Re: Hurricane Ike: From 1st of September 2008
« Reply #15 on: 11 September 2008, 04:46:19 AM »
Latest 8pm advisory..

HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
 
...IKE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...HEAVY SQUALLS
CONTINUING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...145
KM...WEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
 
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.  KEY WEST HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITH RECENT GUSTS TO 54 MPH...87 KM/HR.
 
THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
COASTS OF CUBA.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
 
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
 
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.
 
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...23.1 N...84.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
 
Nicely structured storm Ike is...
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Offline Carlos E

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Re: Hurricane Ike: From 1st of September 2008
« Reply #16 on: 11 September 2008, 05:22:06 AM »
I must admit I'm surprised he managed to retain his structure. After coming off Cuba, he already has an Eyewall as well, so he's very likely to start intensifying soon.

Offline Harley Pearman

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Re: Hurricane Ike: From 1st of September 2008
« Reply #17 on: 11 September 2008, 02:33:56 PM »
As at 8.14 AEST I have been on the National Weather Service site and note that Ike is starting to intensify again and new convection is occurring around the eye wall. The Hurricane is recovering well after crossing Cuba twice.

This hurricane and others before it have left an enormous toll on the Carribean islands especially Haiti and Cuba.

The latest 3 and 5 day forecast cones are looking at landfall in Texas, most likely between Galveston and Corpus Christi at this stage (But that could change). One CNN report suggests a landfall site anywhere between Brownsville and Galveston but that is a large distance. That distance encompasses the cities of Galveston itself (Not to mention Houston to the north), Corpus Christi and smaller cities such as Freeport, Rockport, Arkansas Pass and Port Lavaca.

Galveston is home is around 60,000 residents but any land fall south of here would expose this city to substantial rainfall. The Galveston City Manager has issued a warning, especially for the West End residents as this area is susceptible to flooding. Galveston is built on a narrow coastal strip with the Gulf of Mexico to the south and water courses and bays to the north. It is a city susceptible to flooding. Hence the warnings that have been issued.

In Corpus Christi, residents have also been warned to be on standby and evacuations may be required here.

Either way, this section of the coast seems now to be threatened by this hurricane and the forecast cones and wind expectancy models show this.

Harley Pearman

Offline Carlos E

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Re: Hurricane Ike: From 1st of September 2008
« Reply #18 on: 11 September 2008, 06:01:24 PM »
The latest flight has reported a central pressure of 955hPa and 80 knot sustained winds. This still makes Ike a Category 1 system, what I can't get over is the fact that it has 955 as a central pressure, as a Category 1? That's incredibly intense for such a storm. This is common for Category 3 storms, not 1; makes you wonder if Ike gets to Category 3 what its pressure will be.

Offline Mike

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Re: Hurricane Ike: From 1st of September 2008
« Reply #19 on: 11 September 2008, 08:24:13 PM »
Central pressures are not necessarily a precursor to a hurricane's strength or what category they 'should' be.  Even the forecasters in the US are gobsmacked with the rate of intensity once he got back over water.  It took only 6 hours from making landfall in Cuba to reentering the Gulf waters to reform the eye wall.  The eye wall disappeared from radar and all the satpics once he hit land, but as soon as the eye was surrounded by ocean it reconstructed at an alarming rate. 

There's obviously some correlation between central pressures and the like, perhaps there's members on the forum who know a little more about the technicalities of what we're discussing who could give some insight?

« Last Edit: 11 September 2008, 08:36:49 PM by Mike »
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Offline Mike

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Re: Hurricane Ike: From 1st of September 2008
« Reply #20 on: 11 September 2008, 08:31:19 PM »
Latest update - I like the footnote re tornadoes and waterspouts around Florida!

 I also saw today that there's a salvage/dismantling company that tears down ex military ships and they are taking the extraordinary measure by; ships they have floating will be towed out to sea and sunk, those that are on land will have holes cut into their hulls and pulled into the ocean and sunk!  Odd thing is that military ships are built not to sink!  You've got to feel for them really, loss of revenue etc, etc - even this type of business is not safe from hurricanes.

000
WTNT34 KNHC 101449
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
 
...IKE GROWING IN SIZE AND STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES...
365 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 430 MILES...
690 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
 
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF IKE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
THE HURRICANE IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8
MPH...13 KM/HR.  A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD TAKE IKE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IKE COULD BE A
MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW.
 
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY.  ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4
FEET ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. 
 
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
 
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...23.9 N...85.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Offline Carlos E

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Re: Hurricane Ike: From 1st of September 2008
« Reply #21 on: 12 September 2008, 05:32:28 AM »
Ah, thanks John, I had a feeling the size might have had something to do with it, but wasn't sure.

The latest Hurricane Hunter reported a pressure of 941.5hPa, and Ike is still a Category 2. He's not having much luck with some dry air at the moment, which appears to be interfering with the northeast quadrant. According to the NHC this is probably going to ease a little in the next 24 hours.

Offline Carlos E

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Re: Hurricane Ike: From 1st of September 2008
« Reply #22 on: 12 September 2008, 01:16:11 PM »
IKE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME UNUSUAL STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS.
DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY IS
STILL NEAR 85 KT...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THE REPORTED
CENTRAL PRESSURE.  THE LATTER VALUE...946 MB...WOULD NORMALLY
CORRESPOND TO A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 3/4 HURRICANE.  THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS OBSERVED BY BUOYS AND SHIPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF.  HOWEVER IT CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL INNER CORE
WITH AN EYE JUST UNDER 10 N MI IN DIAMETER.


They even mentioned the low pressure in the discussion. Ike really is being a strange Cyclone.

Offline Harley Pearman

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Re: Hurricane Ike: From 1st of September 2008
« Reply #23 on: 13 September 2008, 04:32:57 AM »
Galveston - Texas:

Reading the local news in this city KPRC Houston - Category 2 Hurricane Ike is churning towards the SE Texas Coast and this area looks set to bear the full punch. The hurricane is expected to intensify to Category 3 but Galveston residents have now been placed on alert to leave.

From local news storey:

4 pm Thursday Category 2 Hurricane Ike was located 26 degrees north and 89.4 degrees west or 400 miles east south east of Galveston. It had winds of 100 miles (160 km/h) and moving 10 miles / hour NW.

Most forecast models predict Ike to make landfall between Freeport and Galveston Texas. The current track takes the system right into San Luis Pass (30 km SW of Galveston) and right across downtown Houston. If this track materialises, it is the worst case scenario for Galveston.

Ike should arrive by midnight Friday. Hurricane force winds extend 115 miles from the centre and tropical storm force winds extend 255 miles. A 15 to 22 foot storm surge is expected at landfall. Galveston could see a storm surge of 12 to 16 feet.

If the eye of the storm crosses closer to the Galveston area, the storm surge could be worse in the Chambers County area.

Isolated tornadoes are expected on the east side of the storm and some wind gusts could reach 100 m/h in Houston.

Many workers have been asked not to come to work on Friday.

Simple summary from a local news storey. Full reading at
Hurricane Ike takes Aim of South East Texas

http://www.click2houston.com/news/17444943/detail.html

Comments:

Freeport is approximately 50 km WSW of Galveston. Assuming it comes ashore here then it is a bad scenario for Galveston because this city would be hit by the main rain bands. There is concern in Galveston because the sea wall built in 1905 following the 1900 Hurricane does not extend to all parts of the city. The concrete sea wall is 3.3 miles long or a little over 5 km long and is about 4.5 metres high, 17 feet high, about 4.2 metres or 16 feet wide. It is built of reinforced concrete and has a base composed of boulders to dissipate wave action.

The critical issue is the West End, because it does not go here. The West End could be in serious trouble from flooding and storm surge.

If the three are put together being the expected landfall, size of the storm surge possible being between 15 and 22 feet and length of the protective wall, one can see what the problem is. The defences for this city appears to be inadequate for this Hurricane.

Another news storey from Houston states the scale of the evacuation about to get underway:-

- Some 60,000 residents in Galveston been told to leave.
- Mandatory evacuations for low lying areas north east and south west of Galveston (This is another case of why cities should not be built surrounded by water bodies and river systems. Galvestion and outlying areas is built on an island hence the problem that is faced here).
- Mandatory evacuations in Chambers, Matagorda and Brazoria Counties.
- Voluntary evacuations in San Patricio and Victoria Counties and parts of Jackson County.
- 100,000 residents in low lying areas surrounding Houston.
- 4,000,000 residents of Houston told they could stay home.

All these areas are such low lying and subject to storm surge. The National Hurricane Centre do predict storm surge at landfall.

The other problem that should not be overlooked is The Port of Houston too. The city suburbs extend to the Port area and are low lying. Suburbs like Texas City, League City and La Port could see substantial flooding if this path is maintained.

The forecast Model cones from the Hurricane Centre are showing landfall in this area.

Harley Pearman

Offline Harley Pearman

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Re: Hurricane Ike: From 1st of September 2008
« Reply #24 on: 14 September 2008, 02:33:35 AM »
Galveston Texas

The final path towards landfall has become irrelevant even though the model cones from the National Weather Service / NOAA show landfall from anywhere just south of Galveston to a full direct hit on Galveston itself. This storm is just so big.

I have been on KTRK Houston Eyewitness News for a full update. This is current at 7.30 am (AEST) in Galveston:-

- Water is already rising on coastal roads.
- A pier has collapsed from waves off the seawall at 61 Street Galveston.
- Side streets in "The Strand" are under water.
- The cruise ship terminal is already under water.
- Galveston State Park is flooded on West End.
- Several homes in Pirates Cove have lost their piers.

The main rain bands have only just arrived but the storm surge in Galveston is already registering 9 feet (2.7 metres high).

Go to:-
http://www.nola.com/hurricane-ike/index.ssf/2008/09/ike_landfall_nearer_galveston....

for more details, including maps,interactive hurricane tracking, US Navy Tracking Map, further graphics, forecasts and alerts.

This is being compared to the Category 4 Hurricane hurricane of 1900.

One might be interested, this area of coast from Corpus Christi to Galveston is subjected to a 10-15% annual risk of a direct hit from a hurricane plus 4% risk annually from a major hurricane, one of the highest along the Gulf Coast. The last substantial direct hit in this region was Hurricane Celia on 3 August 1970 and Alicia on 18 August 1982 (Extreme Weather - Hurricanes).

Hurricane Ike landfall has shifted closer to Galveston and is expected to come ashore early Saturday morning.

Houston - Texas:

Warnings have been issued "For Certain Death" but the difficult issue has been what to do in Houston. Houston is home to 4,000,000 residents but evacuating a city of this size appears to be inappropriate. Residents have been asked to stare down the storm and not attempt to flee. Homeowners should board up windows, clear lose items, stock up on drinking water and have non perishable food ready. Residents have been asked not to flee by freeways as that would gridlock the system (From CNN).

Some lessons have been learnt in the recent past including evacuation casualties.

Ike is so big that it will inflict a blow and storm surge of 20 feet (6 metres) is likely. It is going to cause massive flooding but it seems certain that Galveston is going to be hit very hard by this one.

Harley Pearman

Offline Michael Bath

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Re: Hurricane Ike: From 1st of September 2008
« Reply #25 on: 14 September 2008, 05:37:46 AM »
Hurricane Ike track



The attached satpic at 11.15am EST was captured from this source:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
Australian Severe Weather:   http://australiasevereweather.com/
Lightning Photography:   http://www.lightningphotography.com/
Early Warning Network: http://www.ewn.com.au
Contact: Michael Bath

Offline Harley Pearman

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Re: Hurricane Ike: From 1st of September 2008
« Reply #26 on: 14 September 2008, 06:23:06 AM »
I am watching this Hurricane make landfall.

Latest weather statement for GALVESTON for tonight from NOAA / NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TXZ238-130915-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY
758 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 900 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
.REST OF TONIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS.NORTHEAST WINDS 45 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 90 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASIING TO 65 TO 85 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 105 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SATURDAY...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 45 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 80 MPH IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100%.
SATURDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWS AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. INLAND...GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE EVENING. COAST...GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 60%.


Latest update:- From KTRK-TV. Power in Galveston failed at 8.45 pm and severe flooding now occurring in the West End. Winds are now 110 MPH at the centre and it may come ashore as a Category 3. It was also revealed that 40% of Galveston residents opted to stay back. I also read a report that beyond 9 pm, no further help will be possible to those that stayed back as conditions will become too dangerous.

The eye is now around 90 km SE of Galveston and radars show main heavy rains hitting this area.

Harley Pearman

Offline Mike

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Re: Hurricane Ike: From 1st of September 2008
« Reply #27 on: 14 September 2008, 01:27:16 PM »
Not a lot to see from the live streams as it's nighttime.  News crews reported a funnel in the centre of town with the tunneling of winds between buildings. 

One storm related death earlier on as a father was chainsawing a tree down to save his house from being flattened, tragically his 10 y.o. son was crushed as the tree suddenly collapsed from wind as he was cutting it.  So sad as this happened with Gustav also - not much more one can say for this terrible accident.

Thus far there's not the huge storm surge the NHC predicted would inundate Galvaston ...did they over estimate or was it media hype?

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Offline Mike

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Re: Hurricane Ike: From 1st of September 2008
« Reply #28 on: 14 September 2008, 01:29:53 PM »
Latest update sees things easing a tad as warnings are discontinued as Ike moves further inland.  A low pressure trough to the NW is steering him N/NE.

WTNT34 KNHC 130853
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER  49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...EYE OF IKE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE GALVESTON-HOUSTON AREA...
 
AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH
OF PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS.  A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS.
 
AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST OR NEAR BAYTOWN TEXAS.
THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM...EAST OF HOUSTON
TEXAS.
 
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN TEXAS TODAY...AND INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...ALTHOUGH
IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260
MILES...415 KM.  HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL
INLAND NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 96 MPH...154 KM/HR.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT THE GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 951.6 MB...28.10 INCHES...AS THE EYE
OF IKE PASSED OVER THE STATION.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO
25 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS.  THE SURGE EXTENDS A
GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE
OF THE CYCLONE.  AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
ARE REPORTING STORM SURGES OF 9 TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
 
DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.
 
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
 
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.  ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
 
REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...29.7 N...95.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.
 
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 600 AM CDT AND 800 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Darwin, Northern Territory.
StormscapesDarwin.com
Lightning Research 2010/14

Offline Mike

  • Australian Severe Weather Moderators
  • Wedge tornado F5
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Re: Hurricane Ike: From 1st of September 2008
« Reply #29 on: 14 September 2008, 02:17:07 PM »
Not much more from me re Ike as he travels inland.  The norm with rain, wind and the like but got this water vapor loop from the NOAA site.  It's so cool to view as the circulation and rainbands is just beautiful - if I can use that word - it's very impressive.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html
Darwin, Northern Territory.
StormscapesDarwin.com
Lightning Research 2010/14