Storm Australian Severe Weather Forum
Severe Weather Discussion => Tropical Cyclones, Typhoons and Hurricanes Worldwide => Topic started by: Carlos E on 05 September 2008, 04:19:22 AM
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Ike has rapidly intensified into a Category 3 system in the past few hours. The current track could lead it anywhere from Cuba to Florida, and possibly into the Gulf of Mexico. Although vertical wind shear may increase in the next couple of days, it probably won't last for very long.
Ike is going to build up some very nice ACE from this burst way out in the Atlantic.
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He was only a Cat1 this morning at 2am NT time, that's a huge leap in such a short space of time. The structure is really well defined and circulation is strong.
Here's the latest advisory from the NWS at www.noaahwatch.gov
000
WTNT34 KNHC 032345
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM AST WED SEP 03 2008
...IKE BECOMES THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST OR ABOUT 645 MILES...1035
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY
IKE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THIRD HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...21.7 N...53.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
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Yeah, I was really surprised when I read that particular advisory Mike. And now he's a Cat 4. >_<
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Here's the discussion re Ike as of 2am my time...(NT)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/041434.shtml?
He's encountering shear and some cooler waters on his current track. He needs a little more time in some non-hostile areas they are telling us, but too early to say just yet.
I loved the satpic, great definition at this time since he's showing his strength.
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Yeah he's giving some very nice sat pics at the moment. He'd be very close to a 5 if not a 5 atm. The eye is very very well defined. Which is surprising given the vertical shear in the area.
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Hurricane Ike ought to be watched because if it remains on its current track, the long term Forecast Cone suggests that it may pass rather close to Miami (Florida) or even hitting the southern suburbs of Miami.
Yes it did reach a Category 4 Hurricane but has weakened somewhat but all indicators are, it looks like being a major hurricane. I have the latest IKE Forecast Discussion from the National Hurricane Centre. Coming hot on the heels of Fay, Gustav, Hanna (Tropical storm) that looks set to curve northwards, Ike is of concern.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 050857
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008
THE EYE OF IKE HAS LOST A LITTLE OF ITS DEFINITION...AND CLOUD TOPS OF THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 110KT.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY JUST RECEIVED FROM THE AMSR-E DOES NOT REVEAL ANY SIGNIFICANT DETEORIATION OF THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE...NOR DOES IT DEPICT CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...SO RAPID WEAKENING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ABOUT TO OCCUR. THAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL...AND GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO LESSON BEYOND 24 HOURS...AS IKE REMAINS OVER WATERS NEAR 29 CELSIUS...SO RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE HWRF FORECASTS IKE TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT DAYS 3-5...BUT THE GFDL DOES NOT SINCE ITS TRACK GOES OVER CUBA. MEANWHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM FORECAST A WEAKER HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH THE LGEM PREDICTION APPEARS TO BE MORE REALISTIC SINCE IT DOES A BETTER JOB OF TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EVENTUAL LESSENING OF THE SHEAR. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS OVER WATER THROUGH 96 HOURS...A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND LGEM SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LONGER RANGES. THE ONLY REASON FOR THE WEAKENING AT THE END IS THAT THE FIVE DAY POINT IS OVER LAND...WHICH IS NOT A CERTAINTY.
Comment:
It appears that this is going to be a major Hurricane but at what strength and where will it make landfall? This one has already reached a Category 4 before weakening and a major hurricane is defined as a hurricane that reaches Category 3 on the Saffir Simpson Scale. It must have sustained winds of 110 mph.
If the forecast cones are accurate over the long term and does strike the Miami area it would be the strongest since Hurricane Andrew in 1992 to strike this area. Its a sobering thought given that 3 million residents live in the Miami metropolitan area (Definition and historic Hurricanes from Extreme Weather Christopher Burt 2007).
Continuing:-
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS SETTLED IN DIRECTLY NORTH OF IKE...AS THE HIGH LATITUDE THROUGH DEPARTS ATLANTIC CANADA...AND THE HURRICANE IS NOW HEADED DUE WESTWARD OR 270/13. NEXT TO DEPART THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SCENE WILL BE HANNA...AND ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS SAY THAT IN ITS PLACE THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD TO FLORIDA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. A KEY UNKNOWN FOR THE 3-5 DAY FORECAST IS HOW STRONG THAT RIDGE WILL BE AND HOW LONG IT WILL REMAIN INTACT. IN GENERAL DURING THE LAST DAY OR TWO THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE RIDGE STAYING IN PLACE LONGER...RESULTING IN TRACKS MAINTAINING THE GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION LONGER AND DELAYING ANY POTENTIAL TURN TO THE NORTH. THAT TREND HAS CONTINUED SOMEWHAT ON THIS CYCLE... BUT THE CONSENSUS HAS ONLY SHIFTED WEST SLIGHTLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS...IS JUST NUDGED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME...AND GIVES THE MOST WEIGHT TO THE GFS AND HWRF. IT CANNOT BE SAID ENOUGH THAT FIVE DAY TRACK FORECASTS CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE MODEL SPREAD IS STILL NOTABLE BEYOND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.
FORECASTER KNABB
Harley Pearman
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Wonderful... looks like Ike is going to head into the Gulf of Mexico as a Major; this season is a tad nasty.
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The Vertical Wind Shear has begun to subside, and Ike has taken full advantage by powering back up to a Category 4 Hurricane again. Cuba now looks extremely likely as a first landfall. They already had Gustav hit the western area last week, it to was a 4 at the time.
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Hurricane Ike certainly needs attention.
I have been reading storeys about evacuations at least over the Florida Keys. However the latest track suggests that while Miami is somewhat threatened, it looks like passing to the south and not directly threatening this city.
The latest track does suggest it passing over Cuba, then turning North West. The Hurricane path shown on CNN shows it turning NW and threatening New Orleans but the Forecast Cones on the National Weather Service show something different with the city the Galveston (South of Houston) Texas possibly in its sights.
This city has a history of devastating Hurricanes, especially September 8 1900 when a hurricane left around 6,000 dead (The worst death toll in the USA from a Hurricane). It appears that one ought to watch this part of the Gulf Coast. The long term forecast cones are currently ominous for the western Louisiana and eastern Texas coastline.
Hurricane Ike has regained its Category 4 strength. A storey I found from CNN does show that visitors to the Florida keys have been asked to pack up and leave. About 2 hours later after the evacuation order, Ike regained strength with winds near 135 mph (217 km/h) with peak wind gusts to 160 mph (257 km/h) and moving WSW at 12 mph or 20 km/h.
Tourists are fleeing Turks and Caicos - Florida Keys.
There will be some weakening as it passes across Cuba but it looks like once it gets back out into open waters of the Gulf, it will intensify again.
The latest Hurricane IKE Forecast discussion from the National Weather Service is reproduced here for clarity.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 947 MB AND SURFACE WINDS OF 114 KNOTS ON ITS LAST PENETRATION BEFORE RETURNING TO BASE A FEW HOURS AGO. ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK IKE AROUND 6 UTC. SINCE THEN THE SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISTINCT EYE AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OR AT LEAST TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL IKE REACHES EASTERN CUBA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...IKE WILL BE MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA FOR ABOUT TWO DAYS. THIS MOST CERTAINLY WILL CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER AND THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING WOULD NOT OCCUR. ONCE IKE MOVES OUT OF CUBA...AND MOVE TO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO IT COULD REGAIN SOME OF ITS FORMER INTENSITY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE HWRF MAKES IKE AN INTENSE HURRICANE AGAIN...AND GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...MAKE IKE A VERY LARGE HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
IKE HESITATED A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY BUT IT HAS RESUMED ITS WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREE HEADING AT 13 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...SO A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. BY THEN IKE...SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST - NORTH WEST TRACK OVER WESTERN CUBA...TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THEREFORE I HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KNOW IF IKE WILL MOVE OVER CUBA OR OVER WATER SINCE CUBA IS LONG BUT NARROW. HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE MOST OF THE TIMES...THIS IS A VERY GOOD OPTION. UNANIMOUSLY...TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TONIGHT AND I HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
FORECASTER AVILA
Comment:
The lastest long term forecast cones shows anywhere from western Louisiana to Texas (Plus a large part of the Texas coastline) being the potential landfall sites with the current long term suggested path taking it rather close to the city of Galveston which is south of Houston. Even though the model used on CNN shows it coming close to New Orleans, based on the latest forecast cones from the Narrow Weather Service, it would suggest that this one should miss this city altogether.
Harley Pearman
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I watched something ages ago on that Galveston Hurricane, that was a disaster and a half. Texas has already had Hurricane Dolly earlier in the season as well.
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Ike currently a Cat3 as he closes in on Cuba. NHC are still concerned about him as the eye will remain over warm waters and his weakening will only be temporary once he moves onward toward the gulf area. Recon aircraft report a well structured eye wall and excellent outflow, two things keeping him strong. Sustained winds of 195km/h or 120mph .
Uncertainty as to where he will go in the five day window. Two high pressure systems over central USA will determine where Ike goes. From Tuesday they'll probably get a better idea, but currently he's tracking with NW. If the high pressure areas weaken then they say he'll track for New Orleans and maintain NW, if they don't weaken then models predict he'll swing slightly North and go for the Texas panhandle, but still too early to tell. They're confident that he'll gain the Cat4 rating he had prior to Cuba - a given really!
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Hurricane Ike crossed the northern coast of Eastern Cuba in the Province of Holguin near Purto De Soma at around 9.45 pm EDT 1.45 UTC with maximum wind gusts at landfall of 125 miles per hour or 205 km/h.
The outer rainbands has caused more misery to the populace of Haiti in which after Hurricanes / tropical storms, Hanna, Gustav and Fay, much of the island lies in ruins and a humanitarian disaster is unfolding.
There have been evacuations in the Florida Keys too.
I have been looking at the models and forecast cones and models do suggest that enough of the hurricane will remain over water as it passes across much of Cuba in a west north westerly direction and it should move into the Gulf of Mexico thereafter. It is expected to intensify again.
The long term 5 day forecast cones are certainly ominous for western Louisana and the eastern Texas coastline. The current long term forecast cones for Friday 8 pm still suggests a track towards Galveston in Texas but this could easily change.
However, as pointed out in the last post and as stated by forecasters at the National Weather Service the exact landfall position is still not fully known.
Harley Pearman
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watching models it seems two comparisons are showing: GFS have Ike moving w/NW and then steering NE once near landfall near New Orleans under the influence of an easterly moving high pressure system and forming a SW ridge on his LH circulation area blocking westerly movement. Other models show him not affected by a dissipating high pressure area in the same region in central USA and moving westerly right through to landfall. The latter is not being taken as the predicted path of Ike in the five day scheme of things to come.
Central pressures range on the models from 948-960 whilst over the gulf region, and whilst only a CAT2 at the moment as he passes over Cuba, he is expected to regain momentum to a Cat4 once again. Sustained gusts by models suggested in the range of 86-114knots and once making landfall around 71knots.
He aint done by a long shot - his momentum is great and I don't think I've seen such a large hurricane gain so much power in category over such a short period - less than 12 hours to go from Cat2-4!
IKE BATTERING CAMAGUEY CUBA...HEADING WESTWARD FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND
GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND AND RAGGED
ISLAND.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND GRAND
CAYMAN.
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IKE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...
70 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 290 MILES...465
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...BUT A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE SHOULD MOVE BACK OVER WATER
NEAR PUNTA MACURIJES IN THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY SOON. IKE
SHOULD THEN MOVE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
CENTRAL CUBA TODAY...MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA TUESDAY...AND EMERGE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY UNTIL IKE MOVES BACK OVER WATER.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE TRACK COULD KEEP IKE
OVER WATER LONGER RESULTING IN SOME RESTRENGTHENING DURING NEXT DAY
OR SO. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF
IKE'S INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9-12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1-3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2
TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH TOMORROW.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...78.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA
GOES Floater4 image of Ike
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Ike is expected to retain his size (and possibly grow even larger) in the Gulf of Mexico as well. It looks like the centre of Ike is just about to come off Cuba again, so it could start intensifying as early as 4 hours. Then again, everything I've said regarding this storm has been wrong, so it probably won't. >_>
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Ike is one big intense storm. Currently battering an area just south of Cuba but it looks like it will cross Cuba again and I have heard that the city of Havana is seriously threatened by this. In addition, 2 million residents live here and much of the building stock is old and dilapidated.
It will be interesting to see how this city fares.
Looking at the forecast cones from the National Weather Service, it seems that Ike will be taking more of a westward course, rather than a north ward course. The threat to New Orleans seem to have subsided somewhat.
I read a report in a local paper from Galveston indicating that the Mayor has advised the population of this city to start taking precautions.
However the latest forecast cones show a course south of Galveston now and closer towards Corpus Christie (Texas). It looks like an area from Galveston to Corpus Christie is threatened by this storm.
One can see the dynamics of this changing. The latest report IKE Discussion is reproduced here taken 9/9/08.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT IKE HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BUT THE INNER CORE OR EYE IS VERY SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED...ABOUT 6 TO 8 NM. THE EYE CAN BE SEEN FROM CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS. ALTHOUGH THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN AROUND 963-965 MB...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS MEASURED SO FAR WERE ONLY 69 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KNOTS ASSUMING THAT THE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION... BUT THIS VALUE APPEARS QUITE GENEROUS AT THIS TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED STRUCTURE ON RADAR AND SATELLITE AND THE FACT THAT IKE HAS SEVERAL MORE HOURS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CUBA...THE WINDS COULD INCREASE SOME NEAR THE CORE BEFORE MOVING OVER WESTERN CUBA. ONCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IKE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE...AND THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER SEVERAL AREAS OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AND THIS VALUE IS IN BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS.
FIXES FROM CUBAN AND THE KEY WEST RADARS AS WILL AS PENETRATIONS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE SMALL EYE OF IKE IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS...VERY CLOSE TO THE ZAPATA PENINSULA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE SOUTH COAST OF HAVANA PROVINCE SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEN...THE CENTRE SHOULD CROSS WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. UNFORTUNATELY...IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR TO WHERE HURRICANE GUSTAV CROSSED CUBA A WEEK OR SO AGO. THE STEERING PATTERN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN AND SHOULD FORCE IKE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. IN FACT...UNANIMOUSLY...GUIDANCE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND ONCE AGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND STILL IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDEANCE ENVELOPE.
IT CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASISED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS. DO NOT FOREGT THAT FEW DAYS AGO...THE GUIDEANCE UNANIMOUSLY HAD IKE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE DANGER TOWARD WESTERN CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
FORECASTER AVILA
Further Comments:
During my lunch break, I was spying Ike via the infra red satellite pictures and other satellite photographs and noted a very small eye area and concentration of cumulonimbus clouds circulating on and just south of Cuba. Much of Cuba was being affected by the rain bands. The core of the storm seemed to be small but intact at that time. I read a report that new convection around the eyewall was occurring.
I also noted that the Guantanamo Bay weather radars were down probably due to the effects of the Hurricane so I could not observe the Hurricane patterns over Cuba at that time.
Harley Pearman
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Latest 8pm advisory..
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
...IKE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...HEAVY SQUALLS
CONTINUING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...145
KM...WEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM. KEY WEST HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WITH RECENT GUSTS TO 54 MPH...87 KM/HR.
THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
COASTS OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP
TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...23.1 N...84.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
Nicely structured storm Ike is...
-
I must admit I'm surprised he managed to retain his structure. After coming off Cuba, he already has an Eyewall as well, so he's very likely to start intensifying soon.
-
As at 8.14 AEST I have been on the National Weather Service site and note that Ike is starting to intensify again and new convection is occurring around the eye wall. The Hurricane is recovering well after crossing Cuba twice.
This hurricane and others before it have left an enormous toll on the Carribean islands especially Haiti and Cuba.
The latest 3 and 5 day forecast cones are looking at landfall in Texas, most likely between Galveston and Corpus Christi at this stage (But that could change). One CNN report suggests a landfall site anywhere between Brownsville and Galveston but that is a large distance. That distance encompasses the cities of Galveston itself (Not to mention Houston to the north), Corpus Christi and smaller cities such as Freeport, Rockport, Arkansas Pass and Port Lavaca.
Galveston is home is around 60,000 residents but any land fall south of here would expose this city to substantial rainfall. The Galveston City Manager has issued a warning, especially for the West End residents as this area is susceptible to flooding. Galveston is built on a narrow coastal strip with the Gulf of Mexico to the south and water courses and bays to the north. It is a city susceptible to flooding. Hence the warnings that have been issued.
In Corpus Christi, residents have also been warned to be on standby and evacuations may be required here.
Either way, this section of the coast seems now to be threatened by this hurricane and the forecast cones and wind expectancy models show this.
Harley Pearman
-
The latest flight has reported a central pressure of 955hPa and 80 knot sustained winds. This still makes Ike a Category 1 system, what I can't get over is the fact that it has 955 as a central pressure, as a Category 1? That's incredibly intense for such a storm. This is common for Category 3 storms, not 1; makes you wonder if Ike gets to Category 3 what its pressure will be.
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Central pressures are not necessarily a precursor to a hurricane's strength or what category they 'should' be. Even the forecasters in the US are gobsmacked with the rate of intensity once he got back over water. It took only 6 hours from making landfall in Cuba to reentering the Gulf waters to reform the eye wall. The eye wall disappeared from radar and all the satpics once he hit land, but as soon as the eye was surrounded by ocean it reconstructed at an alarming rate.
There's obviously some correlation between central pressures and the like, perhaps there's members on the forum who know a little more about the technicalities of what we're discussing who could give some insight?
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Latest update - I like the footnote re tornadoes and waterspouts around Florida!
I also saw today that there's a salvage/dismantling company that tears down ex military ships and they are taking the extraordinary measure by; ships they have floating will be towed out to sea and sunk, those that are on land will have holes cut into their hulls and pulled into the ocean and sunk! Odd thing is that military ships are built not to sink! You've got to feel for them really, loss of revenue etc, etc - even this type of business is not safe from hurricanes.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 101449
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008
...IKE GROWING IN SIZE AND STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO
THE DRY TORTUGAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES...
365 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 430 MILES...
690 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF IKE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
THE HURRICANE IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8
MPH...13 KM/HR. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD TAKE IKE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IKE COULD BE A
MAJOR HURRICANE TOMORROW.
IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD SUBSIDE TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4
FEET ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO
20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...23.9 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Ah, thanks John, I had a feeling the size might have had something to do with it, but wasn't sure.
The latest Hurricane Hunter reported a pressure of 941.5hPa, and Ike is still a Category 2. He's not having much luck with some dry air at the moment, which appears to be interfering with the northeast quadrant. According to the NHC this is probably going to ease a little in the next 24 hours.
-
IKE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME UNUSUAL STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS.
DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY IS
STILL NEAR 85 KT...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THE REPORTED
CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE LATTER VALUE...946 MB...WOULD NORMALLY
CORRESPOND TO A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 3/4 HURRICANE. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS OBSERVED BY BUOYS AND SHIPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. HOWEVER IT CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL INNER CORE
WITH AN EYE JUST UNDER 10 N MI IN DIAMETER.
They even mentioned the low pressure in the discussion. Ike really is being a strange Cyclone.
-
Galveston - Texas:
Reading the local news in this city KPRC Houston - Category 2 Hurricane Ike is churning towards the SE Texas Coast and this area looks set to bear the full punch. The hurricane is expected to intensify to Category 3 but Galveston residents have now been placed on alert to leave.
From local news storey:
4 pm Thursday Category 2 Hurricane Ike was located 26 degrees north and 89.4 degrees west or 400 miles east south east of Galveston. It had winds of 100 miles (160 km/h) and moving 10 miles / hour NW.
Most forecast models predict Ike to make landfall between Freeport and Galveston Texas. The current track takes the system right into San Luis Pass (30 km SW of Galveston) and right across downtown Houston. If this track materialises, it is the worst case scenario for Galveston.
Ike should arrive by midnight Friday. Hurricane force winds extend 115 miles from the centre and tropical storm force winds extend 255 miles. A 15 to 22 foot storm surge is expected at landfall. Galveston could see a storm surge of 12 to 16 feet.
If the eye of the storm crosses closer to the Galveston area, the storm surge could be worse in the Chambers County area.
Isolated tornadoes are expected on the east side of the storm and some wind gusts could reach 100 m/h in Houston.
Many workers have been asked not to come to work on Friday.
Simple summary from a local news storey. Full reading at
Hurricane Ike takes Aim of South East Texas
http://www.click2houston.com/news/17444943/detail.html
Comments:
Freeport is approximately 50 km WSW of Galveston. Assuming it comes ashore here then it is a bad scenario for Galveston because this city would be hit by the main rain bands. There is concern in Galveston because the sea wall built in 1905 following the 1900 Hurricane does not extend to all parts of the city. The concrete sea wall is 3.3 miles long or a little over 5 km long and is about 4.5 metres high, 17 feet high, about 4.2 metres or 16 feet wide. It is built of reinforced concrete and has a base composed of boulders to dissipate wave action.
The critical issue is the West End, because it does not go here. The West End could be in serious trouble from flooding and storm surge.
If the three are put together being the expected landfall, size of the storm surge possible being between 15 and 22 feet and length of the protective wall, one can see what the problem is. The defences for this city appears to be inadequate for this Hurricane.
Another news storey from Houston states the scale of the evacuation about to get underway:-
- Some 60,000 residents in Galveston been told to leave.
- Mandatory evacuations for low lying areas north east and south west of Galveston (This is another case of why cities should not be built surrounded by water bodies and river systems. Galvestion and outlying areas is built on an island hence the problem that is faced here).
- Mandatory evacuations in Chambers, Matagorda and Brazoria Counties.
- Voluntary evacuations in San Patricio and Victoria Counties and parts of Jackson County.
- 100,000 residents in low lying areas surrounding Houston.
- 4,000,000 residents of Houston told they could stay home.
All these areas are such low lying and subject to storm surge. The National Hurricane Centre do predict storm surge at landfall.
The other problem that should not be overlooked is The Port of Houston too. The city suburbs extend to the Port area and are low lying. Suburbs like Texas City, League City and La Port could see substantial flooding if this path is maintained.
The forecast Model cones from the Hurricane Centre are showing landfall in this area.
Harley Pearman
-
Galveston Texas
The final path towards landfall has become irrelevant even though the model cones from the National Weather Service / NOAA show landfall from anywhere just south of Galveston to a full direct hit on Galveston itself. This storm is just so big.
I have been on KTRK Houston Eyewitness News for a full update. This is current at 7.30 am (AEST) in Galveston:-
- Water is already rising on coastal roads.
- A pier has collapsed from waves off the seawall at 61 Street Galveston.
- Side streets in "The Strand" are under water.
- The cruise ship terminal is already under water.
- Galveston State Park is flooded on West End.
- Several homes in Pirates Cove have lost their piers.
The main rain bands have only just arrived but the storm surge in Galveston is already registering 9 feet (2.7 metres high).
Go to:-
http://www.nola.com/hurricane-ike/index.ssf/2008/09/ike_landfall_nearer_galveston....
for more details, including maps,interactive hurricane tracking, US Navy Tracking Map, further graphics, forecasts and alerts.
This is being compared to the Category 4 Hurricane hurricane of 1900.
One might be interested, this area of coast from Corpus Christi to Galveston is subjected to a 10-15% annual risk of a direct hit from a hurricane plus 4% risk annually from a major hurricane, one of the highest along the Gulf Coast. The last substantial direct hit in this region was Hurricane Celia on 3 August 1970 and Alicia on 18 August 1982 (Extreme Weather - Hurricanes).
Hurricane Ike landfall has shifted closer to Galveston and is expected to come ashore early Saturday morning.
Houston - Texas:
Warnings have been issued "For Certain Death" but the difficult issue has been what to do in Houston. Houston is home to 4,000,000 residents but evacuating a city of this size appears to be inappropriate. Residents have been asked to stare down the storm and not attempt to flee. Homeowners should board up windows, clear lose items, stock up on drinking water and have non perishable food ready. Residents have been asked not to flee by freeways as that would gridlock the system (From CNN).
Some lessons have been learnt in the recent past including evacuation casualties.
Ike is so big that it will inflict a blow and storm surge of 20 feet (6 metres) is likely. It is going to cause massive flooding but it seems certain that Galveston is going to be hit very hard by this one.
Harley Pearman
-
Hurricane Ike track
(http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/GifArchive/IKE-08.gif)
The attached satpic at 11.15am EST was captured from this source:
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
-
I am watching this Hurricane make landfall.
Latest weather statement for GALVESTON for tonight from NOAA / NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
TXZ238-130915-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY
758 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 900 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
.REST OF TONIGHT...HURRICANE CONDITIONS.NORTHEAST WINDS 45 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 90 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASIING TO 65 TO 85 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 105 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SATURDAY...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 45 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 80 MPH IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100%.
SATURDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWS AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH. INLAND...GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN THE EVENING. COAST...GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 60%.
Latest update:- From KTRK-TV. Power in Galveston failed at 8.45 pm and severe flooding now occurring in the West End. Winds are now 110 MPH at the centre and it may come ashore as a Category 3. It was also revealed that 40% of Galveston residents opted to stay back. I also read a report that beyond 9 pm, no further help will be possible to those that stayed back as conditions will become too dangerous.
The eye is now around 90 km SE of Galveston and radars show main heavy rains hitting this area.
Harley Pearman
-
Not a lot to see from the live streams as it's nighttime. News crews reported a funnel in the centre of town with the tunneling of winds between buildings.
One storm related death earlier on as a father was chainsawing a tree down to save his house from being flattened, tragically his 10 y.o. son was crushed as the tree suddenly collapsed from wind as he was cutting it. So sad as this happened with Gustav also - not much more one can say for this terrible accident.
Thus far there's not the huge storm surge the NHC predicted would inundate Galvaston ...did they over estimate or was it media hype?
-
Latest update sees things easing a tad as warnings are discontinued as Ike moves further inland. A low pressure trough to the NW is steering him N/NE.
WTNT34 KNHC 130853
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008
...EYE OF IKE MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE GALVESTON-HOUSTON AREA...
AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH
OF PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS.
AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST OR NEAR BAYTOWN TEXAS.
THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM...EAST OF HOUSTON
TEXAS.
IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN TEXAS TODAY...AND INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...ALTHOUGH
IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260
MILES...415 KM. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL
INLAND NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 96 MPH...154 KM/HR.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT THE GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 951.6 MB...28.10 INCHES...AS THE EYE
OF IKE PASSED OVER THE STATION.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO
25 FEET IN BAYS AND RIVERS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE SURGE EXTENDS A
GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE
OF THE CYCLONE. AUTOMATED TIDE GAGES ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
ARE REPORTING STORM SURGES OF 9 TO 12 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS.
DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.
IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN
LOUISIANA...MUCH OF ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...29.7 N...95.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 600 AM CDT AND 800 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Not much more from me re Ike as he travels inland. The norm with rain, wind and the like but got this water vapor loop from the NOAA site. It's so cool to view as the circulation and rainbands is just beautiful - if I can use that word - it's very impressive.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html
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I have been watching this for hours and it is a beautiful hurricane in terms of its circulation at the same website stated by Mike.
I have been going though local forecasts from Galveston including current reports. I have found out that some buoys have been damaged / destroyed. The storm surge seems to be 15 feet but could reach 18 feet. However, some instruments appear to be destroyed or not operating so I cannot see all the data.
It was a direct hit on Galveston but the damage seems to be significant. I think the authorities are furious because in addition to 40% of the population staying in Galveston being some 20,000 residents who disregarded the warnings to leave, there have been some 2,300 urgent calls for help on 911. There might be a higher death toll than the 2 reported so far but that is still to unfold.
On CNN I read a report that electricity has been knocked out to 1.8 million customers in Houston. Ike came ashore on Galveston Island as a Category 2 and started to come ashore at 4.25 pm (AEST) right on Galveston. It had winds at that time of 110 MPH.
Although a weather statement at Galveston right at the time of landfall stated:-
THE NATIONAL OCEAN SURFACE STATION AT GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 85 MPH OR 137 KM / HR.
That occurred just minutes before landfall and the highest wind gust report that I could find at that time. The eye was beginning to cross Galveston Island by 4.25 pm (AEST).
I managed to get into a web site with breaking storeys taken 7.30 PM AEST and USA Today plus other updates at:-
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/2008-09-13-hurricane-ike-texas_N.htm
Events are unfolding and includes:-
- Ike whipped into Galveston after 3 am.
- As night fell Friday, 911 operators were besieged by pleas for help but it was too late.
- At 5 am, the Hurricane was located 25 miles east of Houston (The eye was over the eastern suburbs of the city).
- Late Friday, waves were crashing over the seawall in Galveston and 300 people had to be rescued.
- There is also a curfew in the city.
- A bulk carrier is languishing after breaking down off Galveston but the 22 on board still cannot be rescued.
- The storm has shut down 97% of oil production and 94% of gas production in the Gulf of Mexico.
- The Port of Houston has been closed.
Full analysis and interactive reading, weather reports, updates, photos, satellite photos and updates from the SPC can be found at that web site stated.
There are numerous early photos of water and inundation of areas of Galveston.
I was reading on another site a statement from insurers that fortell a possible damage bill as high as $25 Billion. It is being regarded as the first major strike on a major US city since Katrina in 2005. Insurers do not like this one especially with around $1 Trillion worth of property insured around Houston. Watch this one and see what it does to the USA economy.
Harley Pearman
-
Have been having fun during the afternoon watching some of the live TV feeds, including from Galveston while they were outside in the eye of the hurricane. All nice and calm, apart from the flooding and debris, with the winds to pick up again a bit later of course. Mainly been watching the feeds IDing as Local 2 or ABC13 as they seem to be the most stable, the others keep pausing on my dodgy internet connection.
Should be getting light there now, might have to have another look.
-
Galveston - The aftermath
I thought it would be appropriate to provide a few words regarding the aftermath. Hurricane Ike has now been down graded to a tropical storm with sustained winds of 40 miles per hour and it will continue to weaken. It is just dumping rain now with rainfalls of between 75 and 125 mm is expected over wide areas of Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan.
The storm surge was reported around 4.5 metres or 15 feet in Galveston which was less than the 20 to 22 feet (6 to 6.5 metres) expected.
Damage is heavy in the city but rescue workers are only just starting to see what has happened here. Floods in Galveston City reached 2 metres deep at the peak of the storm.
There are skyscrapers in Houston with their windows blown in and electricity is out to a rather large area. The clean up operation is only just in its infancy and the number of fatalities is still at 2 but it is early days yet.
One thing it has done is to spike oil prices so this has affected the prices of oil and this will have a flow on effect in due course.
Harley Pearman
-
Indeed. Sure has made for some good reading from all. I don't think I've stayed up so late watching live streams in a long time! Only one other disturbance in the Atlantic and although has spiral circulation it's not anything to be concerned about just yet. As is the norm with these storms all the aftermath effects flow onto us again - usually always bad fuel wise. Spare a thought for those in the affected areas - they must really detest hurricane season, but it's something they have to live with and are all to familiar with.
Thanks all for the comments since the thread started, I've thoroughly enjoyed all of them.
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Some damage comparison shots are becoming available. This site will have more in a day or two
http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/ike/photo-comparisons/bolivar.html
(http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/ike/photo-comparisons/images/crystal_bch_TX_Loc2-sm.jpg)
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There's a photo on the front page of our paper today which shows a similar pic. Except this two story dwelling is the ONLY house standing on a very large stretch of coastline! Don't know if it was raised higher than the rest but it's pretty sureal and the owners must be gobsmacked!
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More damage photos:
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/09/the_short_but_eventful_life_of.html
Satellite loop - why can't "our" satellite go on rapid scan mode with scans every 5-10 minutes? The GOES-12 blank "eclipse" images mean the satellite was in Earth's shadow and the batteries are not strong enough to power operations. GOES-13 has a bigger battery to last while there is no solar power.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/080913_g12_g13_ir_anim.gif