Author Topic: Thunderstorms: Slovenia  (Read 15583 times)

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Offline Andrej Flis

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Thunderstorms: Slovenia
« on: 02 May 2008, 12:32:36 PM »

Hi all.  Last time a made a topic on your forum it was about 80cm of snow. now i am going to make one about thunderstorms i expect today.
 April is the begining of thunderstorm season in europe, even if T-storms were apearing in march and february.
 It is 10:02AM in my country and there are allready cumulus developing. I hope for some thunderstorms.

 Here is cape and lifted index for today.

 
 

 Vertical movement
 
 
 
 Severe weather forcast


 My location (I live on the red dot.)



Some pictures from 10:22 (i havent reset the time on my camera)
                               
 
 

I will now go "wait" for thunderstorms.  I will inform you all how it went. :)

And a picture of weak mammatus over my house in march


I hope there isnt to much written. (and sorry for my bad english)
Time diference between Australia and Slovenia - I am 10 hours behind :):)

Offline Michael Bath

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Re: Thunderstorms: Slovenia
« Reply #1 on: 03 May 2008, 01:29:02 AM »
Some decent instability was forecast for your location - how did you go during the afternoon ?

regards, Michael
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Offline Andrej Flis

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Re: Thunderstorms: Slovenia
« Reply #2 on: 03 May 2008, 10:27:09 PM »
Hi.

There was a shower first, but Finlay there was a thunderstorm but not so impressing as i hoped.

I did some pictures, but my sister deleted them out of the camera because there wasn't enough space on :(:(

Now i am waiting for next activity and i hope for a squall line or a MCS maybe :)
Time diference between Australia and Slovenia - I am 10 hours behind :):)

Offline Andrej Flis

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Re: Thunderstorms: Slovenia
« Reply #3 on: 27 June 2008, 12:45:40 PM »
Hi all.  Today there are severe storms forcast in my country, so decided to follow the weather and inform you all how it will turn out :)

Here is the Europe severe weather forcast

Synopsis:
West European trough weakens, as subtropical ridge over Iberian Peninsula spreads into eastern Atlantic. Ahead of the approaching trough axis, very strong upper level jet spreads across Germany, Poland, Belarus, and Russia. QG forcing is forecast especially underneath the right entry region of this jet ahead of the trough axis. At lower levels, a frontal boundary extends from Bay of Biscay to central France, southern Germany, Czech Republic, to western Ukraine. To the south of this boundary, unstable air mass is present due to rich low-level moisture and a well-developed EML.


astern Alpine region

A very unstable air mass is expected to be present during the period over the eastern Alps. Latest soundings indicate an EML and rich low-level moisture, and daytime heating will likely result in CAPE values of 2000 J/kg. During the day, approaching trough axis will likely lead to QG forcing, while increasing convergence along the low-level frontal boundary and outflow boundaries of overnights convection will likely be focus of new initiation. Thunderstorms that form will likely become well-organized given moderate DLS about 15 to 20 m/s in the lowest 6 km as well as favourable veering profiles. Giant hail and severe wind gusts will be the most significant threat with supercells, but tornadoes are also possible given locally large low-level buoyancy and 15 m/s 0-3 km vertical wind shear. Latest GFS shows that focus of severe convection will be over southern and eastern Austria. From southern Germany to northern Austria, at least weak instability is expected in the range of the frontal boundary, and thunderstorms are expected capable of producing large hail and severe winds given moderate to strong (20 m/s) DLS. Coverage of storms is forecast to be lower that over southern and eastern Austria. Further south-east, vertical wind shear is forecast to decrease over northern Balkans, where thunderstorms will be slightly weaker. However, large hail and severe wind gusts are not ruled out given high instability and weak to moderate DLS. Thunderstorms will likely merge into one or two MCS moving eastward into Hungary during the night, where severe threat will gradually weaken due to low-level stabilization and ceasing convection as QG forcing will weaken.

And picture. (i live on the white dot near the number 2)



I will inform you tomorrow about the action

Regards, Andrej
Time diference between Australia and Slovenia - I am 10 hours behind :):)

Offline Andrej Flis

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Re: Thunderstorms: Slovenia
« Reply #4 on: 30 June 2008, 02:04:50 PM »
Hi. On 26.6 there was no action at all.
But there were severe storms on 27Th June

This are photos from Slovenian weather forum ZEVS members:

Member - Markuš






Member - MAX











Member - H2O




This storm is the large one in the center.


It was packing large hail (3-5cm)


Sounding


Animations (radar)








IR satellite



Photo from member - Fisher (large storm in the center. Air distance to cloud was 30 km)



And my photos






This was similar to a small flanking line. The clouds were also turning green, and the storm was very lightning active. Later on it weakend in a small line of storms



Photos from member - Blazek















And hail photos from today






http://24ur.com/novice/slovenija/lahko-bi-bilo-se-huje.html#video

That would be all

Regards, Capillatus






Time diference between Australia and Slovenia - I am 10 hours behind :):)

Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Re: Thunderstorms: Slovenia
« Reply #5 on: 30 June 2008, 02:45:29 PM »
Those storms are rather impressive! Those updrafts were quite powerful so it is not wonder about the hailstones! Very large hailstones actually! How does this rate in that part of the world for storm action!

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Jimmy Deguara
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Offline Andrej Flis

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Re: Thunderstorms: Slovenia
« Reply #6 on: 30 June 2008, 03:51:35 PM »
This kind of storms are not so often in this part, so they have a high rate. I cannot imagine that we would have a tornado, because people here dont take weather warnings serious.

In this case there was warm and moist air coming from SE, and a cold front from NW. All 3 days before the storms were hot and dry (surface moist was around 30-45%). So maybe this was a small ˝dryline˝.  Next storms are forcasted on Monday, but non-severe. A cold front is expected so maybe there will be some nice photos :)
Time diference between Australia and Slovenia - I am 10 hours behind :):)

Offline Andrej Flis

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Re: Thunderstorms: Slovenia
« Reply #7 on: 01 July 2008, 10:57:27 AM »
http://forum.zevs.si/index.php?topic=1297.0;topicseen

Pictures of the supercell in the center of radar image
Time diference between Australia and Slovenia - I am 10 hours behind :):)

Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Re: Thunderstorms: Slovenia
« Reply #8 on: 01 July 2008, 12:00:17 PM »
Hi,

The supercell is very impressive! I love one of the pulses that underrides the anvil and is spreading out along the back or side shear! Awesome!! That is a real treat. Question: was there intense damage resulting from this supercell? Also ask Marko to come onto this forum given he is a member and post the pictures and explain more of what he exprienced! It is quite an event to experience in that part of the world given what you and he has described. Also Andrej may also wish to comment.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
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Offline Andrej Flis

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Re: Thunderstorms: Slovenia
« Reply #9 on: 01 July 2008, 01:24:59 PM »
It is impressive yes :)

Most of the damage was from hail, there was also flooding, and some strong wind
http://www.rtvslo.si/mojvideo/zec/toca-vic/6634/




Time diference between Australia and Slovenia - I am 10 hours behind :):)

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Re: Thunderstorms: Slovenia
« Reply #10 on: 04 July 2008, 10:50:00 PM »
Hey Jimmy,

long time no see, but here I am =)

As regarding the storm, it was incredible for our area. There were quite impressive conditions with extreme instability over 3000 MLCAPE and around 40kt shear. What was the most impressive thing with this supercell was its incredibly fast formation. It initiated along the OFB from early afternoon MCS over eastern Slovenia and in less than 10min it rised from single Cu tower into the great structure with massive backsheared anvil and overshooting top. I was watching it from its birth and couldn't believe those explosions of updraft! Reminds me of those insane supercells in TX near Midland back in 2006 (where 5000+ CAPE was), remember we were behind the dryline and it initiated just east of us... that one had softballs.

This supercell over here had severe hail up to 5cm (2in) in diameter over our capital city Ljubljana and slightly SW of it. As I live on the SW part of the country and had been working late, I had no time to go in front of it, not to mention that my friend called me, when I saw that overshooting top, that he is "enjoying" the sound blast in the main hailcore and that highway he was with the car was the only way to come in front, so I let it go. But low-level shear conditions were not that impressive, so I didn't bother to making a core punch, to get in front and check for the meso. And on the other hand I didn't want to punch with my own car, once last year was enough. So I just stayed on the western side to have nice view over the whole structure.

Here are some of my fave pics from this storm...





 









PS: Be sure I do expect you in US next year, my friend! =)

Cheers,
Marko

Offline Andrej Flis

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Re: Thunderstorms: Slovenia
« Reply #11 on: 05 July 2008, 12:39:04 PM »
A morning view to South


And radar


A small morning far away T-storm surprised me. It had a fast development
Time diference between Australia and Slovenia - I am 10 hours behind :):)

Offline Andrej Flis

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Re: Thunderstorms: Slovenia
« Reply #12 on: 05 July 2008, 02:47:39 PM »


Radar became very active. There is action to expect today. Some strong cells developed on the SE.
There is continuous thunder.

You can look latest radar image here http://meteo.arso.gov.si/uploads/probase/www/observ/radar/si1_zm_si_17.jpg






I will update soon

Regards,
Andy
« Last Edit: 05 July 2008, 02:56:57 PM by Capillatus »
Time diference between Australia and Slovenia - I am 10 hours behind :):)

Offline Andrej Flis

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Re: Thunderstorms: Slovenia
« Reply #13 on: 06 July 2008, 12:00:47 AM »
There was hail in Slovenia again.
Most powerfull cells were on the east part of the country

Some pictures from that place











I will post other pictures tommorow. I must go to sleep. It is 9:59PM here

Regards,
Andy
Time diference between Australia and Slovenia - I am 10 hours behind :):)

Offline Andrej Flis

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Re: Thunderstorms: Slovenia
« Reply #14 on: 07 July 2008, 11:10:00 PM »
A squall line is moving over Central Slovenia. No hail is reported. Only very strong winds

Time diference between Australia and Slovenia - I am 10 hours behind :):)