Author Topic: VIC/SA/NSW Severe Thunderstorms 26 - 27 November 2009  (Read 8758 times)

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Offline John Allen

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VIC/SA/NSW Severe Thunderstorms 26 - 27 November 2009
« on: 25 November 2009, 04:36:35 PM »
Rightio, I know this is a big call 2 days out, but im really rather excited about the forecast instability over Western Victoria. 2pm GFS forecast values are rather exceptional, with LIs to -7, CAPE to 2700 and what looks like reasonable sort of shear, and the instability looks good from about 11am through to at least 6. The passage of the SW trough should really provide a nice kick to get things convective, and there is a reasonable sort of CIN particularly on the north of the CAPE maxima.  I can really see something getting going....as the storms move east there looks like a good potential to organise and become severe....in fact if I was banking any day for a big supercell to develop it would be on Thursday...there is alotta of energy in the atmosphere and if Isolate cells can get up they are likely going to be HP. My current chase target thoughts are somewhere between Ballarat and Bendigo. What are other peoples thoughts on the potential for this day?
« Last Edit: 29 November 2009, 03:44:20 AM by Michael Bath »
Explosive events coming to a weather system near you.

Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Re: Victorian Severe Thunderstorms 26th November 2009
« Reply #1 on: 26 November 2009, 01:44:51 AM »
John,

Have you made a comparison with moisture forecasts on both GFS and LAPS models? Although there will be storms, it depends on the moisture forecasts as to how surface based they will be. Nevertheless, there is always good potential for storms with destabilisation.

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Jimmy Deguara
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Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Re: Victorian Severe Thunderstorms 26th November 2009
« Reply #2 on: 26 November 2009, 12:36:38 PM »
Hi John,

I tend to agree with the concept of a squall line although the odd supercell can pop up ahead of or as a tail end Charlie storm in some set ups.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
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Offline Paul D

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Re: Victorian Severe Thunderstorms 26th November 2009
« Reply #3 on: 27 November 2009, 04:32:03 AM »
Squall or SC either way they seem to be reporting a bit of damage from down your way John, (over in SA at least).

PD
« Last Edit: 27 November 2009, 05:04:50 AM by Paul D »

Offline Peter J

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Re: Victorian Severe Thunderstorms 26th November 2009
« Reply #4 on: 27 November 2009, 09:07:09 AM »
Just had a large supercell thunderstorm hit Melbourne area in the last 15 mins with 15mm of rain in 5 mins in Doncaster, and to my observed eye, there was some rotation in the southern end of the storm just before the main rainband hit. The sky from Box Hill looking north was the sea-green colour associated with large hail, but none hit here, just heavy rain. Closer to home, there was plenty of CGs and loud thunder bangs, and some large hail to 3cm in Ringwood.

My brother from Wodonga, said there had been reports of a tornado near Benalla, but that is unconfirmed at this stage...

Big Pete
PJJ

Offline Brad Hannon

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Re: Victorian Severe Thunderstorms 26th November 2009
« Reply #5 on: 27 November 2009, 09:24:51 AM »
Stuck at work in the city but saw what may have been the remnants of a large (long) roll cloud this morning and then got a good view of the line that came through last hour.  Very lightning active and green, especially over the NE and eastern suburbs where I'm informed there are unconfirmed reports on radio of up to golf ball hail.  Certainly packed some moisturely punch this one and I imagine some pretty high rain rates from my own observation as well as pink and purple cores on the WZ radar!  Another line is heading south to the city now but it may slide east into the catchments.

Brad

John - might see you out there later!
hmmm June 2nd......

Offline Richary

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Re: VIC/NSW Severe Thunderstorms 26th November 2009
« Reply #6 on: 27 November 2009, 03:34:28 PM »
I heard reports on the ABC this afternoon that due to the flash flooding in Melbourne that all train services had been cancelled.

When I got home about 5pm I was quite surprised that the bureau hadn't issued a severe storm warning for areas on the South Coast and Tablelands - there was still one in force for much further west. The radar showed a couple of cells with nice black cores, one near Nimmitabel and the other near Marulan. Most action so far SW of Sydney, though we just had a couple of brief lived cells come over near us but mainly with lightning in the sky and no bolts visible (shame as my camera lightning trigger arrived today).

However I did notice a very interesting effect on the Sydney radar loop just now, a line of wind moving to the north of the radar across the screen is successive shots - can't post the loop but this grab shows the line. At the same time there is nothing matching on the rainfall side of things. Not sure what sort of little gust front might have been happening or whatever, somene with more experience might like to look at the loop and comment.

Offline vrondes

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Re: VIC/NSW Severe Thunderstorms 26th November 2009
« Reply #7 on: 27 November 2009, 04:48:14 PM »
 The cell that exploded over Richmond tonight around 8.30 pm headed towards Parramatta before vanishing into a light shower but not before i got the following shots, Cheers, Con.






Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Re: VIC/NSW Severe Thunderstorms 26th November 2009
« Reply #8 on: 27 November 2009, 05:24:52 PM »
Awesome bolts Con. They were probably the ones that shock the house a little here. I only got one of the bolts from this cell as it came too close and I was on the way up from the Southern Tablelands when Nick alerted me to this cell.

The Southern Tablelands chase almost did not happen. First, I left the video camera at home so I had to go home and get it. Second, I watched as storms peaked and weakened in the distance and wandered if I should head out at all! Given the quality of the season thus far, I decided to go for a drive. the first cell although having a reasonable base was in the dying stage near Berrima. From here I waited for the next cell developing NW of Mittagong. By the time I got to Mittagong, the cell was nearing town. I could see a gap and this indicated to me there was some sort of split. The northern cell seemed almost transparent and without an anvil. the anvil however was strongest on this side. So going by instincts, I repoisitioned near the Bargo turnoff. Wow! the structure was quite nice - I was rather skocked. Wasting little time, I set the video on for timelapse and photographed periodically the changing structure of base and occasional glimpse of the updraft. The cell eventually began to weaken and seeing an updraft further south, I decided to head back on the freeway and head south.

After hail 1 to 1.5cm in diameter, I decided to check the storm further south. Despite my efforts to get there as quickly as possible, the storm had just past east of the freeway towards but north of Bundanoon. I sampled hailstones with diameters of 2 to 3cm in the area several kilometres north of Marulan. The updrafts were awesome but I knew there was next to no chance of getting under this storm from my location. The storm gradually weakened shortly after!

Meanwhile, a storm to the west began to intensify rapidly and the line of cells hit making it difficult to beat the line! It was not until just before the Picton turn off north bound was I out of the squall line. Very heavy rainfall accompanied this line as well as strong wind gusts.

After some lightning opportunities with a few bolts still dropping, I called it quits. As mentioned earlier I was close to home when Nick informed me during our conversation that a storm had developed suddenly near Richmond.

This certainly breaks the drought in storm activity and loosens the muscles! An enjoyable afternoon after all the early dramas!

Pictures will be posted soon.

Regards

Jimmy Deguara
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Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Re: VIC/NSW Severe Thunderstorms 26th November 2009
« Reply #9 on: 28 November 2009, 01:09:50 AM »
First cell that weakened near Berrima





Second cell - left mover split with interesting structure









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Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Re: VIC/NSW Severe Thunderstorms 26th November 2009
« Reply #10 on: 28 November 2009, 01:13:30 AM »
Third cell as I approached Maurulan











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Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Re: VIC/NSW Severe Thunderstorms 26th November 2009
« Reply #11 on: 28 November 2009, 01:15:07 AM »
Developing squall line and top end of the squall line







Cell that developed near Richmind



Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
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Offline Harley Pearman

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Re: VIC/NSW Severe Thunderstorms 26th November 2009
« Reply #12 on: 28 November 2009, 01:54:09 AM »
Goulburn storms - Southern Tablelands 26/11/2009

Knowing that there was an opportunity for thunderstorms on the Southern Highlands and Southern Tablelands, I considered the best target for the day and not too far from Sydney would be Goulburn. While I was aware of higher CAPE environments further south, I was concerned with some of the weather conditions and setups so I considered Goulburn to be practical which afforded the opportunity to watch what would happen in the area. The area further south did not produce much weather and I finished up making the right decision to stay around Goulburn.
 
The first photo shows the first thunderstorm looking north east of Goulburn. I am on Memorial Park Lookout. After I took this photo, a solid cloud to ground lightning strike struck very close to me and the thunderclap reverberated across the area. Following this small storm, I noted the light NNW winds turned more towards the east.

The second photo shows the second thunderstorm but to the east of Goulburn. I am on the Memorial Park Lookout. This storm did not hit Goulburn but skirted the town. This storm started to form overhead and across the eastern side of Goulburn but it was moving away from town. However this storm did produce significant easterly winds or outflow winds which appears to have been the catalyst for the next thunderstorm.

The third photo shows the storm approaching me. I am on Memorial Park Lookout looking north west. At first the storm was weak. However as it approached Goulburn, it intensified rapidly and produced the base as shown. It only hit the northern and eastern side of town but its intensification was remarkable. At the time there was an easterly wind blowing from outflow from the previous thunderstorm in the area. That appears to have been the source of this storm.

This storm was particularly intense. The storm struck with a barrage of intense rain, very high winds, cloud to ground lightning and cold hard hail in the 1 cm to 2 cm range.

The Goulburn thunderstorm hit the north east and northern side of town and it toppled trees and caused significant loss of leaves on trees and brought down tree branches. The fourth photo shows a tree brought down. I passed that area earlier in the day and that tree was still standing. I saw other trees or large branches brought down in the area. I am on Lagoon Street close to Union Street. The full force of the thunderstorm only hit Eastgrove, the lookout which is where I was, Bradfordville, Crestwood and Kenmore. The road into town crossing the Mulwaree River had significant water ponding following the event.

Traffic lights on Lagoon Street (Sydney Road) were still working after the storm but when I stopped to take a photo of that fallen tree, I did note several residents were out looking at what had happened. There may have been some power failure in the area.

Pheasants Nest Storm

Following the Goulburn thunderstorms, I drove back towards Sydney and I was aware of another thunderstorm developing to the North West. I drove to a place called Pheasants Nest where I stopped to get a snack and watch what would happen. I took numerous photos of the approaching thunderstorm, cloud structure and colourations. The base of the storm and the colourations was eerie but interesting. I decided to stay and let it overtake me. However I experienced a deluge of rain, strong to gale force winds including some spectacular cloud to ground lightning strikes. The rain was exceptionally heavy and there was water ponding as well. There was no hail this time.

Following the storm at Pheasants Nest, I drove back into the storm heading north east towards Campbelltown and I was forced to drive as slow as 50 km/h as the rain was heavy. A bolt of lightning hit an RTA work light tower right in front of me shattering it. The fifth photograph shows the incoming storm at Pheasants Nest.

Harley Pearman

Offline Harley Pearman

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Re: VIC/NSW Severe Thunderstorms 26th November 2009
« Reply #13 on: 28 November 2009, 02:27:26 AM »
Additional photos of the storms

I was unable to post the last two photos on my previous discussion. The last two photos as discussed are provided below being a tree brought down from the storm at Goulburn and the Pheasants Nest storm.

Harley Pearman

Offline Harley Pearman

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Re: VIC/NSW Severe Thunderstorms 26th November 2009
« Reply #14 on: 28 November 2009, 02:52:40 AM »
Marulan storm 26/11/09

Jimmy one of your photos look similar to my one being the Marulan storm below. I was photographing it from the southern side. If so, then the photo below shows its perspective from the southern side lit up by the sun. I am located approximately 27 km south west of Marulan and it occurred following the intense storm at Goulburn.

Following the Goulburn storm, I passed very close to it and there had been intense rain in the area that it passed over. I took several photos of it including this one.


Harley Pearman