Author Topic: SE QLD / NE NSW Severe Thundertorms 16th - 19th November  (Read 10601 times)

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Offline Clayton

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SE QLD / NE NSW Severe Thundertorms 16th - 19th November
« on: 12 November 2009, 02:05:56 PM »
I have been looking at the Cape and LI maps for next week and Tuesday and Wednesday is looking like a excellent day for some
very strong storms cape over 3000 on wednesday.

Tuesday





Wednesday







Lets all hope this one stays good and doesn't die like friday


Offline Michael A.

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Re: SE QLD / NE NSW Severe Thundertorms 16th - 19th November
« Reply #1 on: 14 November 2009, 02:52:07 PM »
Looks really good for the end of the week Clayton! Wed. and Thurs. now look to be the better days, at least around the immediate NE NSW/SE QLD area. I am a bit new to all of this but I really appreciate all of the good information people are posting on this site. I've only been in the Warwick area around 5 months so I am still getting use to the weather patterns out this way. Went up to Mt. Tabor this afternoon for the first time to have a better look at the storms passing to our west, saw some really nice CG's! My camera should be out of the repair shop by early next week, just in time for the action to start up once again. One thing for sure, there will be no shortage of heat to work with by early to mid week!

I thought this early in the season the jet stream would be stronger, thus pushing all the activity towards the coast. Is it unusual for November storms to have such an erratic movement, and not push out to sea? Could this be due to El-Nino?  Any thoughts on how a strengthening El-Nino might effect the rest of the storm season? I heard that severe weather actually increases in the NE NSW and SE QLD area during El-Nino cycles. Maybe because of the above average temperatures in turn causing more instability? Thanks for the input guys!

Mike

Offline Michael Thomas

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Re: SE QLD / NE NSW Severe Thundertorms 16th - 19th November
« Reply #2 on: 14 November 2009, 06:43:38 PM »
Starting to look a bit interesting for next week, GFS really want to pump out some impressive CAPE which seems quite possible. The real limiting factor though is the weak mid/upper level winds. As we saw the other Thursday, weak mid/upper level winds aren't necessarily too bad provided there is good directional shear with strong low level winds. Hopefully there will be a couple of nice storm days in there somewhere. Tuesday would be my pick at the moment but that is still quite a few days out. 

Offline Macca

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Re: SE QLD / NE NSW Severe Thundertorms 16th - 19th November
« Reply #3 on: 15 November 2009, 03:24:43 AM »
I'm actually eyeing off the very later parts of the week further south.  Models are trying to agree on a half decent upper level trough coming across the southern part of SE Australia sometime around Friday/Saturday and with plenty of moisture and resulting instability lingering around, I think we'll see a decent severe storm outbreak.  Here's hoping its further south anyway cause I'm flying to Sydney next Friday night and staying for the weekend.  ;)

Unfortunately I think work committments will keep me confined to Brisbane during this week.  Shame cause I'd love to play around down in the ranges with the high instability forecast for mid week.

Macca

Offline scottme

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Re: SE QLD / NE NSW Severe Thundertorms 16th - 19th November
« Reply #4 on: 15 November 2009, 12:00:59 PM »

Yep, looks like Lismore is in for another soaking Thur / Fri.

Offline Mathew Townsend

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Re: SE QLD / NE NSW Severe Thundertorms 16th - 19th November
« Reply #5 on: 15 November 2009, 12:53:04 PM »
I will be happy to be back home for university summer holidays from Wednesday in time for severe storm outbreak! Ballina and local surroundings will be best chasing area for me :)

Offline Clayton

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Re: SE QLD / NE NSW Severe Thundertorms 16th - 19th November
« Reply #6 on: 16 November 2009, 12:41:01 AM »
Hey
I looked at the cape forecast for monday and it looks like we could have a storm on our hands.

I was wondering if anyone else was chasing that day?
 (I have to pick which day I want du to having to go to school)

Cape Forcast Monday 4pm






Offline scottme

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Re: SE QLD / NE NSW Severe Thundertorms 16th - 19th November
« Reply #7 on: 16 November 2009, 07:32:45 AM »
If this is realised, game on for thursday! Not a lot of shear though.


Offline Clayton

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Re: SE QLD / NE NSW Severe Thundertorms 16th - 19th November
« Reply #8 on: 17 November 2009, 12:26:20 AM »
Hi

Is anyone thinking of going out chasing today it looks like it could be good max cape on the charts being 2200 with a cap around the casino-kyogle area
But looking at the Dew Point charts it looks that the moisture quickly drops off from the shore and only a few coastal areas get it.
I have to go to school because I am in Yr12 and I have to pick which days I want (about 3 max)
So I think I will give today a miss and go chaing Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday.
Which all of those days have cape over 3000 and caps whcih could lead to some big storms Pitty about the shear though but anything could happen
(even a tornado!! :o)

Clayton

Offline Steven

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Re: SE QLD / NE NSW Severe Thundertorms 16th - 19th November
« Reply #9 on: 17 November 2009, 10:10:59 AM »
Development is just starting to occur around the border ranges, but I'm not too confident of anything heading toward the coast, considering the south to north steering winds.

The instability might be there but the sheer is just pitiful today. And it looks like tomorrow ain't going to be any better either.

Offline Michael Thomas

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Re: SE QLD / NE NSW Severe Thundertorms 16th - 19th November
« Reply #10 on: 17 November 2009, 12:56:47 PM »
I would say that tomorrow should be better than today. I believe that there was a decent amount of surface based CAPE today, however, off the ranges CIN probably just choked the storms as they started to move off the higher ground. Either that or the storms were just collapsing due to the weak shear. Anyway, mid and upper level winds will be a bit stronger and more westerly than they were today which should improve storm organisation, also we have a SE change moving in which should kick things off. I just hope that a relative deep NE/E'ly can develop so that dp's remain in the 18-21C range.

Michael

Offline Richary

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Re: SE QLD / NE NSW Severe Thundertorms 16th - 19th November
« Reply #11 on: 17 November 2009, 02:57:50 PM »
Well nothing severe here but the lightning that went over to my east earlier provided a very nice look during daylight with lots of nice fork lightning hitting the ground and is still lighting things up well off the coast. Probably be a good view from one of the northern beaches lookouts at the moment.

Way too fast to hope to catch daylight shots but have just ordered a lightning trigger from eBay that should arrive in the next couple of weeks (watch the lightning dry up just like it did when I bought the camera last year). Hope it arrives before I have to go to Brisbane for a week in 2-3 weeks.

Still waiting for the front to come through properly and cool things down a bit more though!

Offline nmoir

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Re: SE QLD / NE NSW Severe Thundertorms 16th - 19th November
« Reply #12 on: 17 November 2009, 03:09:34 PM »
A cell blew up nicely all be it high based over the Sydney south and put out plenty of cg's one its race north eastwards
Nick Moir
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The Sydney Morning Herald
and www.oculi.com.au

Offline TroyVR

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Re: SE QLD / NE NSW Severe Thundertorms 16th - 19th November
« Reply #13 on: 17 November 2009, 03:23:42 PM »
Had a nice storm move through here around 6pm Today

Plenty of lightning and a few drops of rain. I had a shockerm first car battery was flat so i had to get a jump then when i went down to get some photos. Got about a 30 second clip then camera battery died. Just my luck...

« Last Edit: 17 November 2009, 03:29:39 PM by TroyVR »

Offline Clayton

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Re: SE QLD / NE NSW Severe Thundertorms 16th - 19th November
« Reply #14 on: 17 November 2009, 05:10:06 PM »
Hey

Just wondering where everyone was going to head if anywhere tommorrow I was a bit unsure.
Any tips on whether to go or not and if so where?

Any help would be great

Clayton