Author Topic: Hurricane Dean: 13 - 22 August 2007  (Read 6249 times)

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Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Hurricane Dean: 13 - 22 August 2007
« on: 16 August 2007, 01:31:14 AM »
Hi,

It seems there has been the development of an upper level ridge over the Gulf of New Mexico and southern states making conditions favourable for Hurricane development.

Here is a current map from http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/tropical.html




Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
« Last Edit: 16 August 2007, 02:43:16 AM by Michael Bath »
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Offline Mike

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RE: Hurricane Dean: 13 - 22 August 2007
« Reply #1 on: 16 August 2007, 03:18:30 AM »
Tropical storm Dean slowly gaining some momentum and looks like tracking towards the east coast of the US and Carribean.  Looking strong as he heads for the US.  Number one of how many this year one wonders!

Have included some pics courtesy NOAA.

Mike
Darwin, Northern Territory.
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Lightning Research 2010/14

Offline Mike

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RE: Hurricane Dean: 13 - 22 August 2007
« Reply #2 on: 20 August 2007, 07:51:27 AM »
Reed and his fellow chaser Joel should be in Jamaica today to intercept Dean as he makes landfall.  I've asked him to post some stuff when he gets a chance.  Dean now rated a strong CAT4 moving into warmer waters.  One fanatastic tornado season ends and early hurricane season begins :)

Included a nice satpic and water vapor satpic courtesy http://www.goes-arch.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/post-archive  The water vapour satpics really give the hurricane some scope when viewing the vast area and storm convection around the photo.

Mike
« Last Edit: 20 August 2007, 08:06:24 AM by Mike »
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Offline Mike

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RE: Hurricane Dean: 13 - 22 August 2007
« Reply #3 on: 21 August 2007, 05:22:26 AM »
Cool link showing WRF animation of Dean as he tracks through islands.  Quite good actually.

http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/feature/2007hurricanes/animate_forecast.php?forecast=hur4&product=dbz

Mike
Darwin, Northern Territory.
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Offline Mike

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RE: Hurricane Dean: 13 - 22 August 2007
« Reply #4 on: 22 August 2007, 10:18:59 AM »
Hurricane Dean now CAT5 - here's some new gossip on the Hurricane Hunters newest tool - and winds are over 160mph+

This year the Hurricane Hunters have a new instrument called a Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer, also known as SMURF. This allows an instantaneous measurement of surface wind speed by measuring sea foam! The radiometer is attached on the wing of the WC-130J's and also measures rainfall rates.  Unlike a dropsonde (the instrument that is manually dropped in the storm to get a vertical profile measurement of the atmosphere) the radiometer stays in place through the flight.

 Thanks to Reed Timmer for the info as he's flat out chasing Dean at the moment.

Mike
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Offline Mike

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RE: Hurricane Dean: 13 - 22 August 2007
« Reply #5 on: 22 August 2007, 10:52:03 AM »
Here's the latest from the national hurricane advisory service.  Check the central pressure at 911hpa - but i have reports that it is as low as 909hpa.  That's just getting plain scary on anyone's account.

WTNT34 KNHC 210604
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DEAN BEARING DOWN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF BELIZE AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
PREPARATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF CHILITEPEC WESTWARD TO VERACRUZ MEXICO...AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 260 MILES...420 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF DEAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A FEW HOURS. DEAN WILL CROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DEAN CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 911 MB...26.90 INCHES.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...18.5 N...86.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN

Radar loops of Dean from http://cnn.com and they have some good info on Dean also.  Worth a look.

Mike


« Last Edit: 22 August 2007, 11:21:36 AM by Mike »
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Offline Mike

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RE: Hurricane Dean: 13 - 22 August 2007
« Reply #6 on: 26 August 2007, 02:26:40 PM »
Reed Timer et al have put together a 9 minute video of their 'escape' from Dean in Jamaica.  What turned out to be Dean skipping Jamaica, he still produced some nice winds and high seas during the day - pretty good video footage even with 70mph winds!  Jamaicans obviously too busy enjoying life to worry about Dean!

See it at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPTgZ0acjfI&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Etornadovideos%2Enet%2F

Mike
Darwin, Northern Territory.
StormscapesDarwin.com
Lightning Research 2010/14