Topic: 2009/10 Bushfire season

[Colin Maitland]

Looking at todays  weather forecast for Brisbane (18/08/09) and BOM have issued SEQ with a high fire danger. We have not had any good rain for some weeks now and everything is turning brown and dying off rather quickly, which you would expect. There is stiff breeze present today, and it made me realise that SEQ could also face the threat of severe fire this season especially with a lower than average falls predicted with the El Nino cycle.

Reading through ABC news article about QLD fire services trying to learn the lessons from Black Friday, brings the point closer to home. It has been some time since any real serious fire has ravaged QLD.

 Quoting partly from the article:

The Queensland Fire and Rescue Service says it is examining the report in detail but insists it is well equipped for this year's bushfire season.

Queensland Fire Commissioner Lee Johnson says the idea of using sirens to sound an early bushfire alarm will be examined.

"Many of our fire stations actually still have sirens fitted and that was a problem in Victoria where I think they determined to disconnect many of their station sirens," he said.

What happened with the EWN concept, I dont live near any fire station, the surrounding suburbs have dense growth with a lot of natural bushland around them plus the Boondal wetlands are a stones throw away. I dont think any of us would hear such Sirens. Stanthorpe residents,( just to mention one place,) living outside of the township would not hear any siren.

But that is besides the issue. It is off real concern to think that VIC, NSW and now SEQ have a real threat of bushfires this year, especially so if it turns out to be a hot and windy season. I think everyone has to realise the real threat of fire this year,  have a plan of attack and stay vigiliant to what is happening.

I am half expecting to see some spot fires today or shortly there after, with the dry wind present. I hope to be wrong.


Col

[Colin Maitland]

I can finally say KUDOS John, I kept seeing the word pop up and I decided to look it up and see what it meant. you deserve the compliment.

You are right with our summer winds, but you can add the NE which blow in a lot, an absolute pain for surfing as only a few points work, and they bring in the blue bottles which just about shut the beaches down on a bad day.

But it makes sense after reading the above post why we dont have many severe fires in SEQ. The aforementioned ABC article has been updated and in the report Mr Roberts states: ( QLD emergency minister)

 "We do have an entirely different weather pattern and terrain situation here in Queensland to that in Victoria, so there will be differences obviously in the way in which we apply some of the policy but the fundamentals need to be the same across the country," he said.

Commissioner Johnson says the fire debate must also be kept in historical perspective when comparing states.

"What happened in Victoria was at the extreme end of extreme in terms of the weather conditions," he said.

"The fire danger index was just so far over the top of known experience - even on our worst day in Queensland, the fire conditions have never to this point in time have never got anywhere near what was experience in Victoria."

Our main threat up here is as Commissioner Johson said

"fast moving grass fires are the biggest threat in Queensland while forest fires are more common in southern states.

He says preparations for the Queensland bushfire season started early this year, with many parts of the state rated above normal for fire risk.

"We're expecting things to certainly be busier than last year,"

Col

[Peter J]

Coltan

All I can say from my perspective -with 5 CFA firefighters living in my street alone, not one area near the Dandenongs will be safe this year - ok, the Black Saturday conditions were the most extreme I have ever seen over a large area (1983 was more isolated, but just as bad), but the impact was lesser in the hills close to home, but....

This year is a more riskier year for two reasons:
         1. The prolonged drought has made it more of a risk for faster running fires here
         2. the lack of controlled burn-offs by CFA and DSE is leaving too much fuel in the right places - the findings from the Royal Commission also      highlighted this problem.

I know I am bracing for the worst - even though where I live is not as at risk as those to my immediate east, but having seen the 1997 The Basin fires from a fairly close range (I was living only 5-6kms away from them at that time)., I know you can never be too prepared.

Big Pete

Edit Note: I think the QLD climate system is more moist than the VIC climate system, thus with the moisture levels higher brings the risks lower from larger forest-based fires. and vice versa.

[Colin Maitland]

Big Pete, I think you are on the right tract. Whether it is as bad as "Black Friday" or not, the potential is there for a bad season as John pointed out, and to me, even if one person was to die from a bushfire, that alone is tragic.

I am not trying to be an alarmist, but the reason behind starting this thread was with the thought of having the forum members contribute to educating people that may either just visits the sight, as well as for those of us on the forum. To hear from those who saw first hand the devastation of the fire and what they learnt and can pass on to us all. For forum members to contribute their knowledge with regards to the weather conditions and possibility of threats or outbreaks, suggestions on safety and evacuation in the event of a fire outbreak. What people can do to prepare in advance, etc etc.

John Allen said " I will try to put up some graphs and other data at a later date to see if I can narrow the threat area down a little."

To have such educated people as such on this forum is exceptional, and there are so many here from all back grounds. There is so much we can learn.

Unfortunately, my instincts are telling me "not if" but "when." I hope I am so wrong, I would be very happy to be wrong. And I hope that we never see a repeat of Ash Wednesday, Black Friday, but in reality that is a dream, history has a nasty way of repeating itself, and it can happen so quickly, sometimes in a flash of an eye, and it can catch so many people unaware.

So therefore if through educating and learning we can save lives, that in itself would be a great achievement.

As for this season, Victoria is still my main concern followed by NSW and for some reason SA. And I dont know to what extent, QLD will or will not be affected. As discussed earlier in this thread the potential for QLD to see a Black Friday is a lot less than other states.

I suppose the important thing is, dont think it will never happen here or to me. To be prepared and for nothing to happen, would by far, outweigh being caught unprepared.

Col

[Richary]

I am gradually losing touch with Adelaide, but the last 2 summers I was there and even last summer I have been very surprised that the Adelaide Hills hasn't gone up. It has been so dry there for so long that it definitely seemed a matter of when not if.

I have to congratulate the CFA there for having resources strategically positioned and ready to go on all days of high fire danger, including water bombing aircraft manned and ready to start at a moments notice. I believe this is the only thing that has stopped the place from going up. As soon as a fire was reported/spotted the aircraft would be dumping water on it very quickly while ground crews got in there. Having the resources in place and ready to go has meant they could get on top of a fire before it got to the unstoppable phase.

I'm not as in touch with how conditions are over there, I believe they have had a little bit of rain, but of course if it isn't followed up to keep things damp then it will just add to the fuel load.

[Colin Maitland]

TV and radio news bulletins today  have been saying there is a high fire alert for SEQ this weekend. This is part of the 9MSN article

Queensland fire authorities are on alert amid forecasts of a potentially-deadly combination of high temperatures, low humidity and strong winds across the state.

The prevailing weather will result in very high fire danger ratings for most of the state across the weekend and into next week.

The Bureau of Meteorology predicts Brisbane's temperature could hit 33 degrees on Monday, which would be an August record.

a few hot and windy days ahead of us.

Col.

[Colin Maitland]

There has been bush fires in North QLD burning over the last few days, the latest reports now indicate that 2 houses have been destroyed with these fires.
ABC news link  http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/09/11/2682732.htm

It has been very dry and the humidity has stayed relatively low.

Col.

[Steven]

It's only going to get worse as the ground continues to dry up even further. We have been lucky nothing disastrous has happened thus far because the temperatures have moderated themselves in the last few weeks. But give it time before a 40C is forecast and then you'll see fires starting up spontaneously from even the simple careless act of throwing a cigarette out the car.

[Colin Maitland]

Parts of NSW, VIC and QLD are under an extreme fire alert, there is a front moving in from the west that will bring with it strong winds and high temperatures over this weekend: Bom have issued warnings for
 
NSW: NSW FIRE WEATHER WARNING
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
New South Wales
Issued at 1636 on Friday the 11th of September 2009
for  Saturday 12 September 2009

Hot, dry and windy conditions are expected to cause EXTREME FIRE DANGER in the
following NSW Fire Areas on Saturday:
Northern Riverina
Southern Riverina,
South Western
 

Vic warnings:

Fire Weather Warning
for the Mallee forecast district.

Issued at 3:41 pm EST on Friday 11 September 2009.

A fire weather warning for Friday and Saturday is current in parts of the Mallee forecast district. Temperatures up to 31 degrees, relative humidity down to 9% and winds to 50 km/h will cause extreme fire danger.

CFA advises people living in areas at risk of fire to activate their bush fire plan.

BOM has issued official warning for parts of QLD, and as already mentioned, crews are battling a large fire in North QLD. Fire authorities are warning of the potential threat that lays ahead.

Stay safe
Col

[Colin Maitland]

Another weekend (26/09/09) of high fire danger for QLD and NSW as a cold front will push very strong warm winds ahead of it. At present there are approx. 21 fires in QLD according to media and fire authorities.

[Colin Maitland]

All Australian states except Tasmania, have bushfires burning there today. The posted current map of the fires, from WZ, is interesting to observe, especially with the line of fires from WA right across SA and just over the boarder of NSW.

QLD has been very hot and dry and next to no rain for several weeks, last night there was some loss of property due to the fires. Fire authorities are saying there is no end in sight for the immediate future because there is no real rain on the horizon for some time to come. There may be the odd storm but that is about it. So there is a real concern up here. Once again humidity has stayed relatively low.

Col.

[nmoir]

    i think that line is an error as it is burning in areas that i doubt even have enough fuel to sustain fire ,
also it would give the impression of one continous storm pumping out lightning all the way across australia , either that or someone has been drpping flares all the way across in a light plane. Sentinel hotspots shows no fires at all in those areas over the last 3 days

http://sentinel2.ga.gov.au

until yesterday my pick of danger areas apart from vic would have been the south coast of NSW which in the last few weeks has proved fire prone in mild conditions reflecting its lack of rain over the last year and it large fuel loading and tall tree types

[Colin Maitland]

I believe you are right, just checked before coming on this morning , the fire line has disappeared and now half of Tasmania is on fire! It was just a new  tool (to me)  I had not noticed before on WZ storm tracker, but I dont think it is accurate and doubt that I will ever use it again.

Thanks

Col

[nmoir]

use http://sentinel2.ga.gov.au   or use the modis sat maps and click on fires   http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/index.php?subset=Australia6.2009276.terra.1km

[Colin Maitland]

Thanks nmoir, just had a little play and it looks like a very usefull tool to add to the list.

Cheers

Col