Author Topic: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009  (Read 9083 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Colin Maitland

  • Barrel tornado F4
  • *
  • Posts: 614
  • Gender: Male
Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
« on: 11 August 2009, 04:21:01 AM »
Browsing through the weeks weather yesterday and today, and spotted the chance of a storm on Wednesday for SEQ from Double Island point right down to the Northern Rivers inc Lismore. Tuesday shows NSW eastcoast around Newcastle possible storms. ( BOM  Forecast for Tuesday
Cloudy with isolated showers becoming scattered in the west with possible thunderstorms. Light to moderate northwest to northeast winds.
Newcastle:   Chance shower.                  Min:    9  Max:   21 )
 


Wed. SEQ and Lismore

BOM lismore  Forecast for Wednesday
Isolated showers with possible thunderstorms. North to northwest winds.

Lismore:       Chance shower.                  Min:   10  Max:   25


Brisbane

Wednesday     Possible afternoon thunderstorm        Min 11    Max 25


Starting to dry out up here in SEQ, I am producing a bit of static electricity again from the dry air ( 1st winter in many years I haven't got a boot from touching metal after walking on carpet etc) so we could end up with a weak storm but with some good lightning displays, if it eventuates.
If the forecast pans out as shown, Brisbane will have a top of 27C on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Pretty warm for winter.
« Last Edit: 11 August 2009, 04:32:14 AM by coltan »

Offline Antonio (stormboy)

  • Stove pipe F3
  • *
  • Posts: 481
  • Gender: Male
RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
« Reply #1 on: 11 August 2009, 09:17:52 AM »
I too saw that forecast looks like this for Wednesday in the northern rivers Wednesday Isolated showers with possible thunderstorms. North to northwest winds so also hoping that we will get a t-storm it would be a good day for it 26C.

storm boy

Offline Jason(pato)

  • Elephant Trunk F2
  • *
  • Posts: 136
  • Gender: Male
RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
« Reply #2 on: 11 August 2009, 11:29:26 PM »
Gday All,

Having a bit of a closer look at Wednesdays storm chances for NENSW/SEQLD and the setup isn't looking to bad, considering its still winter, to say the least. From the 12z GFS run from BSCH, CAPE is progged to be around the 800-1000 mark with LI's of -4.5 from temps/dp of 22.2/12.82. Replotted at 25/13 gives back respectable numbers of close to 1300 CAPE and -6.26 LI's. Shear is decent too with up to 20kt Nthlys at the surface, WNW [email protected] and WSW [email protected] Theres plenty of moisture too right up to the 350mb level, although my concern with this is that we may see more of a thundery rain mass rather than isolated and stand alone storms. CAPE of 1000+ persists after dark off the coast which may provide a nice offshore lightshow, but if it clouds over (which is highly possible) then viewing any activity could be limited. Either way its been a long time since I've seen any decent storm activity and Wednesday could bring a welcome relief to whats been an otherwise boring winter so far.

« Last Edit: 11 August 2009, 11:36:22 PM by Jason(pato) »
South Lismore, Northern Rivers NSW.....Supercells are us!!

Offline Colin Maitland

  • Barrel tornado F4
  • *
  • Posts: 614
  • Gender: Male
RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
« Reply #3 on: 12 August 2009, 02:27:25 AM »
there seems to be a bit more moisture than I had thought looking at the data from Jason. Humidity has climbed a fair bit. We were sitting around low 40 but now up to 80 -90% yesterday  and looking much the same today.
 I was anticipating more of a dry thunderstorm or dry lightning to come through as the trough passes us. Not expecting much of a storm in  severity but more conducive to lightning. But now it looks more like light thundery rain.

I was hoping to try a capture some lightning shots and experiment with the settings before storm season starts. Still getting used to new camera from end of last season.

Cheers
Col






Offline Colin Maitland

  • Barrel tornado F4
  • *
  • Posts: 614
  • Gender: Male
RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
« Reply #4 on: 12 August 2009, 12:53:17 PM »
Weatherzone reported that storms over NSW this afternoon, (11/08/09), have produced the best rain in 4 months for the nations capital.
Canberra received 11.8 mm since 9 am today including a heavy fall of 5 mm in just 10 minutes shortly after lunchtime . Paddy Aicken from  WZ news said it was  " more reminiscent of Summer than Winter. " 

 Another extract from the story states:
Other totals around the southeast included 6mm at Tamworth - the best in nearly a month, and 7mm at Dubbo in the 24 hours to 9am - the best in 2 months.

The storm we are eagerly hanging out for in SEQ and Northern NSW is still expected tomorrow, WZ News states Tomorrow the trough will contract further east, triggering some afternoon and evening storms over northern NSW and southern Queensland, while maintaining rain over Tasmania, and showers for Victoria.

For me an evening light show would be very much appreciated so I can keep practicing with my camera. I still get envious at those absolutely brilliant shots produced by members on this forum, many I think are deserving of awards if they have not already.

Cheers and happy storm chasing for the up coming season everyone.

Col.

Offline Antonio (stormboy)

  • Stove pipe F3
  • *
  • Posts: 481
  • Gender: Male
RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
« Reply #5 on: 12 August 2009, 02:17:05 PM »
Well it was a beautiful warm day today. Right now looking at the radar we could be in for overnight storms as the lightning tracker is going off in the north nsw area. Tomorrow will be a warm and humid day. Yes some storms might develop.

stormboy

Offline Harley Pearman

  • Barrel tornado F4
  • *
  • Posts: 584
RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
« Reply #6 on: 12 August 2009, 02:30:56 PM »
Evening thunderstorm over NW Sydney 11 August 2009

A thunderstorm over NW Sydney brought two short bursts of heavy rain across Blacktown and at least two cloud to ground lightning strikes as well as some intra cloud lightning. No wind occurred however I was surprised to see small size hail fall for between 1 and 2 minutes during the event. The hail was no larger than 5 mm in size.

Looking at the radar images, the core of it was small as it passed over Blacktown tracking from north west to south east before weakening. The hail would have fallen from the core as it passed overhead.

The rainfall plot for Sydney from the Bureau of Meteorology to 6 pm 11/8/09 shows Blacktown, Seven Hills and immediate environs receiving the greatest volume of rainfall of 6 to 7.5 mm (Rainfall from 9 am to 8 pm). It does suggest that a thunderstorm reached its full intensity in terms of rainfall over or near the general area where I live.

Incidentally this breaks the run of 129 days since the last thunderstorm which occurred on 3 April 09 over Blacktown.

Harley Pearman

Offline Richary

  • Barrel tornado F4
  • *
  • Posts: 680
  • Gender: Male
RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
« Reply #7 on: 12 August 2009, 05:07:03 PM »
From here near Parramatta I saw some nice lightning coming over towards 6pm, lots of lightning in the sky but didn't spot any ground strikes. As it came over it seemed to fizzle out a bit though. A bit later some more lightning to my north from a fairly small intense cell that had tracked SE over Glenorie on the radar, and about 8pm had some nice views of a couple of cells off the coast lighting up with ICs.

The Country Energy Stormtracker also showed a bit of activity in New England as well as the South Coast, a lot more intense than what Sydney was getting.

Offline Colin Maitland

  • Barrel tornado F4
  • *
  • Posts: 614
  • Gender: Male
RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
« Reply #8 on: 13 August 2009, 09:42:15 AM »
Checked soundings on ASWA at about 1 pm , showed good potential for a storm with a slim chance of it being severe. after watching a couple of storms build I started to take some shots from on top of our roof and then I should check radar etc.  SEQ /NSW has been issued a storm warning,
BOM
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - SOUTHEAST QUEENSLAND
for DAMAGING WIND and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in the BRISBANE CITY and parts of the LOGAN CITY, MORETON BAY, IPSWICH CITY, SOUTHERN DOWNS, SCENIC RIM, SOMERSET and REDLAND Council Areas.

Issued at 3:26 pm Wednesday, 12 August 2009.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 3:30 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Lowood, the NSW border and the area south of the NSW border. These thunderstorms are moving towards the east. They are forecast to affect the area southeast of Warwick, the area east of Warwick, Highvale and Samford by 4:00 pm and Strathpine, Boondall, Sandgate and Brighton by 4:30 pm.

Damaging winds and large hailstones are likely.

The next warning is due to be issued by 4:30 pm.


Offline Shaun Galman

  • Stove pipe F3
  • *
  • Posts: 441
  • Gender: Male
    • ridgelightning.com
RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
« Reply #9 on: 13 August 2009, 10:38:26 AM »
Hi guys,
Looks like all the waiting is almost over for another year!

It's great to see triggering (and severe warned) storms already! I wonder if this spring will be as violent Supercell-wise as it was for the Eastern parts last year?

We had some initial building earlier on this morning but it soon dissipated and moved East of us. Nice to see some towers on the skyline again.

Russ reported to me today that he saw some of the lightning in Sydney (Newtown area) last night but the rain soon quashed any thoughts he had of actually getting out in it.

I'm eagerly awaiting the first storm reports and photos from this system!

Take care if chasing.
Kindest regards,
Shauno   
Chasing Region: Lightning Ridge. N.S.W.
Website: www.ridgelightning.com

Offline Colin Maitland

  • Barrel tornado F4
  • *
  • Posts: 614
  • Gender: Male
RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
« Reply #10 on: 13 August 2009, 11:55:46 AM »
Small storms cells in SEQ have been igniting all over places over the last few hours, but as they leave the range they have been loosing their intensity as they approach the bay. We have one cell in Brisbane right now, 5.18pm, just east of Ipswich and another larger cell nears Crows Nest that may make its way through, may get some lightning pictures tonight.

This is the warning zone at 5:18 pm. There is a band heading south east into Northern Nsw as well .
  

Offline Antonio (stormboy)

  • Stove pipe F3
  • *
  • Posts: 481
  • Gender: Male
RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
« Reply #11 on: 13 August 2009, 01:49:16 PM »
Well some huge storms have been exploding in southeast QLD and one just finished here in Ballina.


For people in the SUNSHINE COAST and parts of the BRISBANE CITY, GYMPIE, MORETON BAY and REDLAND Council Areas.
Issued at 7:40 pm Wednesday, 12 August 2009.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 7:45 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Caloundra, the area southwest of Caloundra, Kenilworth, Yandina and southern parts of North Stradbroke Island. These thunderstorms are moving towards the east to northeast. They are forecast to affect Maroochydore, Noosa Heads, waters off Noosa Heads and the area northwest of Noosa Heads by 8:15 pm and the area north of Noosa Heads, Lake Cootharaba and Lake Cooloola by 8:45 pm.

stormboy

Offline Steven

  • Global Moderator
  • Stove pipe F3
  • *
  • Posts: 410
  • Gender: Male
RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
« Reply #12 on: 13 August 2009, 02:02:37 PM »
No I think the radar is overestimating things somewhat. On the map we are supposedly in the "red" zone right now and I can tell you no more than 10mm fell since it began about 20 minutes ago. Lightning is quite active, but not much wind (though it was really windy this afternoon, for some strange reason).

It is certainly a pleasant sight. I happily look forward to jumping out of my seat with the loud thunder in the months to come!

Offline enak_12

  • Elephant Trunk F2
  • *
  • Posts: 153
  • Gender: Male
RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
« Reply #13 on: 13 August 2009, 02:26:49 PM »
Ahhh yes the storm season seems to be making an early start. It felt just like a spring day today and I saw a nice little storm too, I was ready for it in my usual haunt on days like this.








This storm had a nice little rotating updraft was really quite fast to the eye it merged with another updraft soon after which also showed signs of rotation with some little stritations and possible wall cloud? 





This looks really cool in the pics when flicking through them quickly it makes a timelapse of the feature and forms by condensing under the updraft.

A light show soon followed which was an awesome sight.







Bring on some more!

 

Offline DanTheMan

  • Rope Tornado F0
  • *
  • Posts: 18
  • Gender: Male
RE: Late Winter Thunderstorms NSW / SE QLD : 11-13 August 2009
« Reply #14 on: 13 August 2009, 02:29:18 PM »
Yea I had dark orange right over me on the radar and I got 2.4mm on my weather station and 3mm in the manual gauge.
Lightning was constantly flashing but couldn't see any bolts, never got any massive booms, but its August so I cant complain! Cant wait for this season!