Topic: Is it just me is something big building up?

[Swirl]

Hi all,

I'm Kerry and new to ASW forums. I'm a beginner to all the terminology so have had some researching to do just reading all your posts, but I thought to post some queries/thoughts I have trying to work out/understand myself.

Prior to Clare, the Severe storm patterns here in QLD had become frequent and intense; however, when Clare formed our storms reduced to nil. We've not had anywhere near the weather we were experiencing prior to Clare forming (during or since).

Over two weeks now ~ the Cloud patterns have had combinations of low-level and mid-level clouds which have mostly been varying versions of Cumulus; stratocumulus & nimbostratus - Temperatures have maintained around the 30 - 35 C mark though humidity is rarely relieved maintaining between 80 - 96%. There has been extremely isolated and brief moments of precipitation.

This scenario around my region is beginning to make me feel like I'm on the inside of a pressure cooker, you know when the weather has just been building up to something and it's getting near to release - and it's my thought that it will have something to do with that Monsoonal trough over Northern Australia.

Today the clouds are that of stratocumulus OR tightly grouped culumus. Something is building - I can feel it, I know it, just cannot explain myself.

What are anyone elses thoughts?

Cheers,

Kerry.

[Jimmy Deguara]

Hi Kerry,

By all means don't feel worried about posting. The only requirement in this forum is accurate reporting not speculation or exaggeration and everytihng is fine.

As to the patterns changing, I think you are correct. The development of the tropical cyclone and the monsoonal trough as well as a ridge came hand in hand. No upper troughs are progressing further north thence this is now the pattern until autumn comes around. There should be extensive rainfall across eastern Australia if the patterns maintain.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

[Swirl]

Hi Jimmy,

Thanks for your reply - if this current pattern maintains itself from now till Autumn, would that indicate that the frequency of severe storm weather and or potential supercell behaviour would also be greatly reduced or completed? I know patterns change often and I am pleased with my accuracy so far this season to forecast my local weather - but since this change in the pattern I've found myself more at a loss, maybe I guess as there is nothing which appears to be happening or maybe more so as these current patterns don't make sense to me yet.

I hope you don't mind my asking Jimmy, I am a very curious person just that when you say that "no upper troughs are progressing further north; hence this is now the pattern till autumn comes around" how does one establish that there won't be any upper troughs progressing north? With Autumn a little over 5 weeks away, that's either a very set pattern or our storm season in general is changing in it's patterns. Would I be correct that our '05 season began early? Around August really I thought. I'm full of questions (always ).

Cheers,

Kerry

[Swirl]

.. 

Since the Monsoonal low is now becoming a tropical low off the NW WA coastline and a cyclone watch has been extended, I'm simply going to hold my breath and see what develops later today. Stormy weather is forecast for the SE QLD coast and NE NSW as well, so tomorrow should be a good day. I am glad to have the day off work, but sad that my van is booked into the mechanics for some much needed work - so I'll be on the computer most of the day I imagine, watching from afar what will develop.

A cyclone WATCH is current for a tropical low for coastal areas between Wallal and Wyndham.

At 8pm WST a tropical low was located over the Kimberley. The low is poorly defined at present and lies approximately 230 kilometres north northeast of Derby and 250 kilometres west southwest of Kalumburu and drifting slowly westwards.

Cheers,

Kerry.

[Michael Bath]

Kerry - whereabouts in Queensland are you ?

I don't think Jimmy meant the pattern will be the same continuously until Autumn, but it will probably dominate, so we'll end up with less thunderstorm weather than spring and early summer.

The major change that occurred after 6th January was that deeper NE-E-SE winds became established onto the NE NSW / Queensland coast. The typical thunderstorm pattern has N-NE winds at the surface but they usually begin the turn to NW and W from about 1km above the surface. This has been replaced with winds of an easterly component up to at least 2 - 3 km, which are not good for storms here - apart from on the ranges. It is good for onshore type cumulus though!

The change did happen to coincide with TC Clare, but I don't think it is directly related. A small low formed off the SE QLD coast on 7th Jan, and a blocking pattern of a strong high in the south Tasman with a ridge onto the Queensland coast has persisted.

regards, Michael

[Swirl]

 

I live in Boyland, on the western side of North Mt Tamborine - 27.56 S; 153.10 E. it's about 45 minutes from both the Gold Coast and Brisbane. I have a great view to my west almost as far as the Birnam range to my NW to Mt Misery in the SW Where abouts do you live Michael? You're also a Queenslander, is that right?

Sorry for the mis-understanding to you both, yesterday had been a long and expensive day for me ~ so I guess I wasn't thinking too clearly.

I'd noticed some of those onshore Cumulus as I drove to work over the last week, they just seem to sit there, very slow moving - I haven't had the chance to watch much of their behaviour. Outside now it looks as if a small storm is collecting itself from just south and to the south west of me, the clouds are beginning to look a little more promising outside at least for some rainfall to cool it down here. Looks like a building cumulus cloud bank. There's some height and apparent upwards movement, though the bases are low and flat mostly with some lower drafts. I can see through the cloud gaps to higher altitude clouds which look like altocumulus! Looking good out here.

Again, excuse me if I say or ask the wrong thing - I'm still wearing my "L" plates, even though I've always loved meteorolgy or more specifically, severe weather patterns. I have always found learning on my own without advice or structure difficult, I still allow myself to become distracted or I see the broad pictures without watching and learning how things link together.

Ok, if it's alright - I've got another silly question - this changing pattern we're discussing, could it have side-effects do you think? Or is a change such as this a normal behaviour in a La Nina environment?

Thanks for you patience!

Cheers, Kerry.

[Michael Bath]

Ah! - So we should all expect some great photos from you when there's storms around then ! I take it you are about under the word "Coomera" on the Brisbane local radar ?

I'm at McLeans Ridges in NE NSW - between Lismore and Alstonville:

http://australiasevereweather.com/video/webcam.htm

Please don't hesitate to ask anything about the weather, though we may not always have the answers either

The patterns at the moment appear very normal for this time of year. High pressure to the south of the continent and an active monsoon trough, with another TC about to form off WA.

MB

[Swirl]

As soon as I get a good enough camera - I'll start a webpage for my photographs Michael! I have some decent ones now, but I love photography and would appreciate a better camera, so I'm saving up.

My location on the radar, if you're looking at the Weatherzone 144km version, is half way between the Beaudesert and Coomera points and a little below. On the BoM 128 km radar I'm 8 km north of Canungra.

I love what you've done with the webcam Michael - that's a much higher viewpoint than where I'm sitting right now I should check your webcam for a birds eye view on the approaching weather when applicable - today, it's all heading down your way. Looks like you've already got some precipitation or you're inside a cloud one or the other  :D

Cheers ~ Kerry

ps: am trying to attach a radar image map of my place on the 6 January around 7pm EST of our best direct hit storm all season! My place is directly under the arrow head I drew on the radar jpg. The radar image was saved for me as I was without power at home for 21 hours. Power was out, even before the storm hit. I hope this works - good practise for photos later hey!

[Michael Bath]

Thanks for the location map !   Yes, my cam points in your direction so you will be able to spot stuff heading your way or already over you.

Been very heavy rain south of the border overnight and today. Highest fall I found is 316mm at Corndale NE of Lismore. I had "only" 62mm to 9am (yet I'm only 10ks from Corndale), but up to 78mm more since 9am.   Going to be interesting with flooding if this keeps up.

Michael