Author Topic: Tropical Cyclones 2006/2007 Southern Hemisphere season  (Read 11865 times)

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Offline Michael Bath

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Tropical Cyclones 2006/2007 Southern Hemisphere season
« on: 26 January 2007, 02:07:18 AM »
It continues to be fairly quiet TC wise anywhere near Australia, thought the season normally is most active from now till April.

There have been two TCs this week east of the dateline: Zita 22-24 Jan and Arthur 24th Jan to date. More info here:
http://australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/tropical_cyclones_2007_southern_hemisphere.htm

MB
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Jeff Brislane

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RE: Tropical Cyclones 2006/2007 Southern Hemisphere season
« Reply #1 on: 07 February 2007, 12:08:07 PM »
Well everyone! We have a TC now in the gulf, can't remember the name but it's there and heading east. It is Cat 1 at the moment but it is forcast to reach Cat 2 before landfall. It will be interesting to see if it causes further flooding alond the east coast.

Jeff.

Offline Mike

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RE: Tropical Cyclones 2006/2007 Southern Hemisphere season
« Reply #2 on: 10 March 2007, 09:27:22 AM »
Severe TC George crossed the coast last night around 10pm with winds of 275kmh, The CAT4 cyclone tore through Port Hedland and three people are believed to have lost their lives.  They are expecting more deaths as many communities have been severely affected by this storm.  Wind gusts of 140kmh are still being experienced inland.  This system is still rating a CAT3 inland with very destructive winds present as it tracks further inland.  SES and police say the affected areas are in chaos with emergency services struggling to locate and visit areas that have been in the cyclone's path.  There are hundreds of community folk living in outlying areas that were in the cyclone's path.

Mike
« Last Edit: 10 March 2007, 09:35:37 AM by Mike »
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Jeff Brislane

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RE: Tropical Cyclones 2006/2007 Southern Hemisphere season
« Reply #3 on: 10 March 2007, 10:45:27 AM »
I guess not many people on this forum care much about tropical cyclones! George has crossed the coast and I would love to see the wind speed figures for the Port Hedland AWS. I'm sure they were very high but as per every single Cyclone that ever passes near an AWS the figures for the most important period seem to be missing. Don't they have back up solar powered batteries in those things? It seems the highest known speed is so far 75 knots. I've heard reports of 275km/h but i'd like to see evidence like demolised homes.

Offline Mike

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RE: Tropical Cyclones 2006/2007 Southern Hemisphere season
« Reply #4 on: 10 March 2007, 11:02:15 AM »
Mmm yes, Jeff.  Unusual considering they're severe storms!

00Z Port Hedland sounding wind barbs had them ranging from 50k at 400mb, 67kt at around 610mb and 68 at 900mb - I would guess the wind speeds would have been in the range of 75-50kt for that 275 rating - but it was a Cat4!  The satpic photos show a well organised spiral of rain bands - pretty impressive.

 We'll have to wait for the pictures to come in from the media and public to get an idea of the damage.  I guess we'll have to be patient.

Mike
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Offline Matthew Piper

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RE: Tropical Cyclones 2006/2007 Southern Hemisphere season
« Reply #5 on: 10 March 2007, 11:06:28 AM »
Bedout Island recorded a mean wind of 105 kts prior to the cyclone passing directly across it which according to the Bureaus cyclone technical summary equates to wind gusts of up to 150 kts. Port Hedlands highest reading was a gust to 85 kts which occurred around an hour and a half before the strongest winds hit according to local observers.

It will be interesting to see what strength TC Jacob obtains before it too hits the Pilbara coastline in the coming days.
Matthew Piper

Offline Mike

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RE: Tropical Cyclones 2006/2007 Southern Hemisphere season
« Reply #6 on: 10 March 2007, 11:25:25 AM »
There are now two confirmed deaths and 20 people injured at the Fortescue Metals Group mining camp.  The camp would not have had a chance with those winds packing that much punch.

TC Jacob's path is amazing - no wonder forcasters have to keep a close on these systems.  That's a complete 180 degree U-turn from its original path and it's like following in it's original tracks.

 Jacob has central pressure of 072hpa with 50kt winds - Cat2.  George still has central pressure of 954hpa with 175kmh winds.  That's impressive considering it hit landfall last night at 10pm - talk about momentum!

Jacob has strengthened to a Cat3 and is on course to hit exactly the same area - would you like to be a storm chaser in that area at the moment knowing that in around two days time your'e going to get ANOTHER cyclone!

Check out the BOM W.A site and look at the track map for Jacob, they have included George's path on the same map - talk about a wild time for that part of the coast!

Mike
« Last Edit: 10 March 2007, 02:18:25 PM by Mike »
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Jeff Brislane

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RE: Tropical Cyclones 2006/2007 Southern Hemisphere season
« Reply #7 on: 11 March 2007, 01:37:09 PM »
Matt,

Could you post those observations from Bedout Island? And do you know what was the lowest pressure recorded there?

So far i've seen very little in the way of damage pics from Port Hedland and they are mention things like fences blown over and half a roof missing, etc. That doesn't sound very powerfull to me. The only photo's ive seen from in town have shown less damage than i've seen from severe thunderstorms.

Jeff.

Offline Mike

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RE: Tropical Cyclones 2006/2007 Southern Hemisphere season
« Reply #8 on: 12 March 2007, 12:39:52 PM »
One has to remember that there's not a whole lot in Port Hedland (with respect) the cyclone passed between Pt Hedland and other outlying communities - which are mainly mining camps and indigenous communities - so there's a lot of area to cover - so damage may have been substantial to the landscape but this area would be fairly inaccessable after all the rain the cyclone had dumped.  whether someone posts pics to the newspapers and whatever we'll have to wait and see.

as an aside - most of the shots from the low that dumped over 800mm at Oenpelli came from shots from the air - we can't even drive down the track 50km to Adelaide River because it's completely flooded!  There is a croc jumping tourist place that sits on the banks and always gets flooded, but the photos i've seen this week have it half under water - crocs are going to be travelling more inland with this deluge!

Mike

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Offline Michael Bath

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RE: Tropical Cyclones 2006/2007 Southern Hemisphere season
« Reply #9 on: 13 March 2007, 02:09:22 AM »
Some weather data for Tropical Cyclone George - did these up for the Brisbane ASWA meeting on Saturday.

Radar loops 8th March:

Port Hedland 128

Port Hedland 256


Satellite loops (large files)

VIS 8th March

IR 3 - 9 March


Bedout Is obs - pity some of the pressure readings are missing


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Offline Mike

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RE: Tropical Cyclones 2006/2007 Southern Hemisphere season
« Reply #10 on: 25 March 2007, 03:02:07 PM »
Another tropical low heading west towards the WA coast again. This low tracked below us (again) and off to the west.

 WA BoM have advice and track map out already, satpics show nice circulation and organisation of the low.  Watch advice out for Pt Hedland and coastal areas - I don't think they'd like another one personally!

WA certainly have had a boomer season severe weather wise with these lows developing into TCs this wet season.  Can remember when they've had so many in such a short space of timeframe.  BoM forcast Cat1 by Monday but still out to sea which is not always good for locals.

Mike
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Offline Michael Bath

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RE: Tropical Cyclones 2006/2007 Southern Hemisphere season
« Reply #11 on: 27 March 2007, 08:11:04 AM »
This compact system has intensified quickly to Cat 3.

Quite a nice appearance right now on VIS: 03z 26th March





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Offline Mike

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RE: Tropical Cyclones 2006/2007 Southern Hemisphere season
« Reply #12 on: 27 March 2007, 11:35:07 AM »
Cat3?  They only predicted a Cat1 !!  Apparently a small but intense cyclone, but erratic in intensity - gets hot and cold and moving into unfavourable conditions  (probably the easterlies eh!) and deteriorating to a Cat1 by landfall - bit of a waste!

Mike
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Offline Mike

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RE: Tropical Cyclones 2006/2007 Southern Hemisphere season
« Reply #13 on: 18 May 2007, 08:06:32 AM »
Late cyclone for the season off Solomon Islands moving West towards Qld.  Although not affecting Qld's weather within the next three days, it is intensifying.  TC Pierre Cat1 @ 995hpa at the moment. Have not seen the WRF models as yet.

 Hopefully some areas will get some rain or storms from this system if it continues to track westward to the coast.  Any bets that if he sustains that he crosses the Cape and into NT waters???!!!

Track map and satpic for the hungry masses.

« Last Edit: 18 May 2007, 08:29:33 AM by Mike »
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Offline orage

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RE: Tropical Cyclones 2006/2007 Southern Hemisphere season
« Reply #14 on: 18 May 2007, 03:58:31 PM »
Hi,

I was amazed to see a Tropical Cyclone in the middle of May (and there is one moving from Fiji waters into NZ waters too). I was wondering, does anyone know if there has been a cyclone this late, or even later in the season? Is this normal?

Thanks