This was the head lines on page 14 & 15 of the QLD Sunday mail (29/03/09). Quoting Directly from the paper:
(Hannah Martin
March 29, 2009 12:00am
SEVERE weather warnings will be issued up to three days in advance thanks to the weather bureau's new super computers.
They will make forecast calculations 11 times faster than existing technology.
The two computers, together worth $30 million, are expected to begin coming on line in late September, just in time for the next storm season, and be fully operational within two years.
They will create highly accurate models and tracking paths of severe weather systems like the destructive storm that flattened parts of The Gap in Brisbane in October, and Cyclone Hamish which swept down the Queensland coast this month.
Cyclones and thunderstorms are among the state's many extreme weather patterns that are analysed and explained in The Sunday Mail-Channel 9 Book of Weather, which will be free inside the paper next Sunday.
The weather bureau 's chief information officer, Philip Tannenbaum, said the faster processing capability of the new computers would allow forecasters to produce an increased number of advanced weather models, based on regional, national and global data.
He said accurate shorter forecasts will be made three days ahead, instead of the current two using existing bureau computers.
"We're one of the top-tier weather organisations in the world and this technology will keep us on par with our peers," he said.
New technology is helping meteorologists track all aspects of the weather better.)
I give the Bureau full credit in trying, but as I read the article I wondered to what extent it will be successful. There is some degree in accuracy, but I am very skeptical of these computer models, as in an earlier thread today, I have posted 2 seven day forecast less than 12 hours apart and have two different predictions. I sarcastically said it changes more than a babies nappy, due to the frustration of the inaccuracies. A lot on this forum gather their own data and predict storm events pretty accurately,then go and gather fantastic photos and video footage, and other evidence, that is what strom chasing is about.
I know a lot of the younger ones, and maybe older, who may have total trust in computers, will jump down my throat for this, but for the next two months, keep a chart of the forecast and see the percentage of accuracy. Too much reliance on computer generated modelling and putting faith into is not the full answer. Every single storm , every single weather pattern, is different to some degree, and the reality is, it is only been for a brief period in history that we have records for Australia and other countries to their weather systems and patterns. We don't know, the full cycles of storms. We talk about 50 year storms, 100 year storms, from ice records we talk about maybe 1000 + years, but what really happened in those storms. Do our computer models take those factors into there calculations. Last year we had one spokesman for BOM state that their models did not predict what the severe weather actually did. It took a completely different path and dispersed.
It will be intersting to watch and see if these new super computers worth $30 million dollars, do help and how accurate. Another fear factor is, over the past several months there has been a lot of talk of cutting back staff numbers in the stations. There has been talk of one man stations and this caused out rage from the airport, RAAF and other authorities. Maybe this new computer system is part of the staff cut backs.
