Author Topic: Solar cycles will peak in 2012 the devastation can be severe as 400-year cycle  (Read 10601 times)

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Offline Jimmy Deguara

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http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/14873.asp


Take a look at this article which really prompted it - it goes to show to what extent words can get twisted:

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/21dec_cycle24.htm

A link from that article leads to this which is slightly closer to the article above.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10mar_stormwarning.htm

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Offline Steven

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Doesn't sound to good to me, I wonder if it poses a risk to the population or something. Also in 2014 an asteroid is predicted to hit earth but you don't hear much talk of that.

Offline Antonio (stormboy)

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I have read the recent article stating some development of the first sunspots

Offline Antonio (stormboy)

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here is a most recent update

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2009 Feb 28 2201 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 059 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2009

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity was very low with no flares observed.
The visible solar disk was spotless.  A slow moving, asymmetric CME
was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the NW limb at
27/1931Z.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels.  Solar winds speeds
decayed steadily throughout the summary period from a high of near
700 km/s to a low of about 500 km/s.  The Bz component of the IMF
remained mostly north (+2 to +4 nT) for a majority of the period.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for days one and two of the forecast period (01
- 02 March).  By day three (03 March), activity levels are expected
to increase to quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods
possible at high latitudes.  This increase in activity is due to a
coronal hole high speed stream that is expected to rotate into a
geoeffective position.  The CME mentioned earlier is not expected to
be geoeffective.

III.  Event Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       Green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Feb 071
Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar  070/070/070
90 Day Mean        28 Feb 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  005/005-005/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor storm           01/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01

Offline Richary

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I wonder where the heck they got that. Radio is my main hobby so I am across solar cycles. The predictions I have seen before are that it will be a quier cycle (it is taking a long time starting) and by 2050 we may go into a period with no solar activity leading to a mini ice age. These articles are proposing the opposite.

Richard

Offline Antonio (stormboy)

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Offline Paul D

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Back in late 2008 contrary to predictions of another big solar cycle I was interested to hear a prediction (by Dr Ken McCracken) that the next two solar cycles would be quite leading to a cooler period during this time similar to the 1900-10 period coined the "Gleissberg Minimum"
See:-http://www.abc.net.au/rn/scienceshow/stories/2008/2388008.htm#
Like the last four posts have suggested it looks like this is the scenario which is developing.-

NASA current predictions

current predictions :-http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml



Site looking at previous NASA predictions (as at Jan 2011)

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/18/nasa-sunspot-number-predictions-revised-again/

Graph from site above (wattsupwiththat.com) of nasas previous changes in predictions:- to Jan 2011