Author Topic: Northern NSW Storms 26 - 29 November 2006  (Read 29559 times)

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Offline nmoir

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Northern NSW Storms 26 - 29 November 2006
« on: 27 November 2006, 01:45:18 AM »
-6 li  around mudgee on the 28th but winds are all westerly and no backing
« Last Edit: 30 November 2006, 01:36:02 AM by Michael Bath »
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Offline Jimmy Deguara

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RE: Northern NSW Storms 26 - 29 November 2006
« Reply #1 on: 27 November 2006, 01:51:36 AM »
Hi Nick,

The storm situation is bland at the moment though Tuesday is once again looking reasonable but I was thinking perhaps further north from there based on current model runs.

Even today there seems to be a shot up the mid-North Coast ranges but the storms are most likely going to struggle to tap the mositure and perhaps remain elevated.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
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Offline nmoir

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RE: Northern NSW Storms 26 - 29 November 2006
« Reply #2 on: 27 November 2006, 01:56:40 AM »
actually i just looked for monday in same region but bit north , better day? some nthly winds
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Offline Jimmy Deguara

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RE: Northern NSW Storms 26 - 29 November 2006
« Reply #3 on: 27 November 2006, 02:29:33 AM »
Hi Nick,

You sound like you have been Tornado Alley recently or something... Are you looking for screaming inflow:)

Any of the days have instability but there is a ridge as well as a lot of heat being generated. The conditions don't seem to match up and mid-level cloud is set to be a hinderence to any substantial convection.

Tuesday according to the 12Z model run has cloud generally cleared from the state but winds tending NNW.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
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Offline Michael Thompson

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RE: Northern NSW Storms 26 - 29 November 2006
« Reply #4 on: 27 November 2006, 03:09:11 AM »
It appears to be one of those years that if you wait for prime conditions the whole season will have slipped away. I am on holidays so I will be heading off early am tomorrow for at least Glen Innes, although I prefer further north, perhaps Stanthorpe / Warwick.  Tuesday looks like a sit around the Northern Tablelands, than perhaps heading east late and down to the MNC.

Monday has a rather concerning atmosphere profile ( as Jimmy mentioned ) with too much mositure - a bit of a candle stick sounding, and of course Tuesday sees a better profile with crap winds.

Today could be the sleeper, but prefer north from a line Newcastle to Gunnedah and elevated as moisture will be an issue.
« Last Edit: 27 November 2006, 03:36:47 AM by Jimmy Deguara »

Offline Jimmy Deguara

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RE: Northern NSW Storms 26 - 29 November 2006
« Reply #5 on: 27 November 2006, 03:40:48 AM »
Hi Michael,

I am checking the 18Z model run for today as it would be prime for a chase then overnight stay into tomorrow if required and Tuesday as well.

My pet hate though is ample mid-level moisture - I cannot count more than a few chases in my whole career where decent photogenic storms have occurred on such situations. The mid-level cloud also means that storms either have erupted or the energy was being converted into cloud in the mid-levels.

Of course if I was on vacation I would have been up there myself. Don't worry, I am not after supercells on all chases, just great contrast, organised photogenic storms.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
« Last Edit: 27 November 2006, 03:45:05 AM by Jimmy Deguara »
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Offline Michael Bath

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RE: Northern NSW Storms 26 - 29 November 2006
« Reply #6 on: 28 November 2006, 05:26:32 AM »
Storms were quite active Sunday and things should be very active again today with plenty of instablity and good moisture. Shear is quite interesting too and supercells are certainly possible.

Brief chase account from yesterday:

Was an interesting storm chase with Rodney Wallbridge and Greg Spencer (visiting from WA) yesterday afternoon and night. It was the hottest day of the season here with the temp pushing 38-39 west of Lismore - and humid - but not very deep until later on.

We watched several storms, the first locally was west of Kyogle before very powerful updrafts formed just south of Casino around 4.30 EDT. The temperature dropped about 6 degrees as the rush of wind shot into the updrafts.







Very much a low precipitation storm with minimal base features, but incredibly powerful updrafts and thick anvil. Thunder was constant while this cell was active.

After this there was a bit of a lull locally though we knew plenty of storms were further south of Grafton.

In the evening things really took off as several high based storms spread through the Northern Rivers. Some light showers made the lightning chase a challenge at times, but we certainly were treated to quite a show.











MB

 
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Offline nmoir

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RE: Northern NSW Storms 26 - 29 November 2006
« Reply #7 on: 28 November 2006, 02:07:23 PM »
nice frames michael
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Offline Steven

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RE: Northern NSW Storms 26 - 29 November 2006
« Reply #8 on: 28 November 2006, 03:11:14 PM »
How about the Sunshine Coast any chance of storms? Saw nothing today >:(

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RE: Northern NSW Storms 26 - 29 November 2006
« Reply #9 on: 28 November 2006, 04:04:45 PM »
Hi Michael,

Awesome pictures and nice storms - glad you went out and covered what I didn't:)

I left Sydney from about 2pm in pursuit of a storm - yes a weak storm. Well I aimed for the Putty and the road was blocked due to fires - that cost me that storm as I had to go all the way out to Lithgow Miudgee. It was dry there and smoke filled. I was determined to not let that get me down and concentrate on being in position for the next day - 27th November. I got to Uralla about just after 9pm.

I awoke 4:30am (no special reason!) I had found a free wireless spot so decided to load the latest data. It persisted in its forecast for 2200 CAPE contained in the previous evening's run. With a weak storm already developing near Dorrigo, I set out with the intention of being early.

Early was not a good idea. I ended up having to park and remain in the shade under a tree near Guyra. I waited and waited. Michael Bath updated me with the latest data and I wasastonished to find the models had decided to up the CAPE to 2700J/kg. Cumulus began to develop. Knowing the history of the area I was of the opinion that storms would fire within the next hour or two. Try 4 hours! So where was the energy? The bases and tops of the cumulus seemed decent at first but then began to exhibit 'storm starved' characteristics. Obviously drier air had begun to mix out the existing moist air.

I decided to head back to Guyra considering Michael Thompson was in the area. A storm had attempted to break the cap. Upon reaching Michael T, the storm went through a stale-mate stage. We knew it was almost ready to let go. The NNW winds were taking their toll. The moisture was further east. Finally with the rise of one main tower at just prior to 2pm, I headed east. Michael T was going to meet me there.

On nearing Ebor, the storm surprisingly exhibited good structure - tapping the moisture. Lightning was isolated but on the increase. There seemed to be inflow from the north and developing bases as well as a decent anvil. Hail was reported from the rear section of this cell confirming that the core was producing hail to about 1cm in diameter.

Reatreating NW once more in short bursts, hail once again hammered the vehicle - this time up to 1.5cm. Finally up the road, 2 to occasionally 3cm thumped the vehicle. This persisted for some time until the infamous stuttering activity. we may have been on the edge of the storm, though the precipitation cascade intensifed. This time hail to about 4cm pounded the vehicle as well as bouncing off the grass. The hail became larger - threatening to take out windows. Well it always seems like that. This eased and it seemed gone. What is that sound I thought - it sounded like distant rain. A very large hailstone bounced half a metre off the grass and loud vibrating thumps on the vehicle as well. I finally realised that the sound was the infamous 'hail roar'!

This would have been the longest session that I would have experienced hail in one particular location. And they were big - the largest hail I have experienced so far this season. Despite retreating a little, I made a quick dash back into the storm to measure hail samples. Although in melting stage, the diameter was consitent in the order of about 4 to 5cm in diameter.

The next stage was to attempt to remain with the storm. We did well at first but then entered into unforgiven country - scattered forests and a gully! The storm was ever so near but not near enough. Intence lightning behaviour was experienced at this stage.

We decided it was time to head for Glen Innes - I lost Michael T and caught up with James Harris! A day of chaser convergence. After discussing what storm we had intercepted being a supercell, it was noted that the storm was still intense and tracking NNW - destination Tenterfield.

This was the last segment of an intense afternoon - the lightning was occasional though quite intense in Tenterfield.

Pictures will be posted shortly.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

Offline Michael Bath

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RE: Northern NSW Storms 26 - 29 November 2006
« Reply #10 on: 29 November 2006, 03:28:05 AM »
The evening chase last night with Rod and Beck was great - so much lightning again. The best part was driving (from the NW) into a very active storm north of Kyogle about 10pm onwards. Seriously thought the Rav4 was going to cop a hail stone or two, but luckily just torrential rain and strong winds. Just as we got to Wiangaree a barrage of CGs started. It was pouring there but fortunately a service station provided some cover to watch.



Whose ghostly head got in the way of this shot ?



There were numerous shotgun lightning bolts hitting near us before it suddenly stopped at 10.40 EDT



But the highlight of the night for me were not these photos, but what my 14 year old daughter Katrina had taken back at home !   She had been informed lightning was likely and stayed up to capture the amazing anvil crawlers spreading in from the west.









Can't wait to see the rest of the photos everyone got !

Regards, Michael :)
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Offline Michael Bath

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RE: Northern NSW Storms 26 - 29 November 2006
« Reply #11 on: 29 November 2006, 05:59:52 AM »
1km VIS satpic loop noon to 7pm:



Radar loop from 1.30pm to 11pm:

http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2006/radar/200611271200.gif

Location: Mcleans Ridges, NSW Northern Rivers
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Offline vrondes

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RE: Northern NSW Storms 26 - 29 November 2006
« Reply #12 on: 29 November 2006, 10:17:20 AM »
Very impressive anvil crawlers there Michael.  You're a very good teacher.  The images by your daughter are truly spectacular, as indeed are those by her dad who must be a proud dad indeed.  Cheers, Con.

Offline Steven

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RE: Northern NSW Storms 26 - 29 November 2006
« Reply #13 on: 29 November 2006, 11:49:43 AM »
How do you make the radar loops?   By the way very nice pics Michael and Katrina :)  By the way I'm 14 as well.
« Last Edit: 29 November 2006, 11:55:23 AM by Steven 01 »

Offline Steven

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RE: Northern NSW Storms 26 - 29 November 2006
« Reply #14 on: 29 November 2006, 02:14:48 PM »
There are some storms around Coffs Harbor, can't wait for the pics. I can't wait for tomorrow's storms, as they are forecasting for SE QLD although judging by the models they'll occur more south during the late afternoon and evening, and my the 30th they should be in the Capricoria district.