Author Topic: New cyclone threat for North QLD 04/02/09  (Read 4401 times)

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Offline Colin Maitland

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New cyclone threat for North QLD 04/02/09
« on: 05 February 2009, 04:50:20 AM »
New cyclone threat for Qld's north

The rain may be easing in north Queensland, but it could be the calm before the storm as another low brews 150km off the coast of Cairns.
Weather forecasters say a low pressure system about 150km off Cairns could form into a cyclone as early as Thursday morning. This has been the hype up here all day on the news.



The BOMs 3 day outlook for Coral Sea is

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 6:25pm on Tuesday the 3rd of February 2009

The monsoon trough lies along the northern Goldfields and extends over the north
tropical coast into the northern parts of the Coral Sea.  Strengthening
monsoonal winds may make tropical cyclone formation more likely from Thursday.

The chances of a tropical cyclone forming in the trough is assessed as:
Unil Wednesday afternoon: Low
Until Thursday afternoon: Moderate
Until Friday afternoon: Moderate

Below is the synoptic chart for Wed 04/02/09. It looks very interesting with lows from WA (expected to form into a tropical low/TC on Thursday) right across the top end and out to the Coral Sea.
 
« Last Edit: 05 February 2009, 12:58:59 PM by coltan »

Offline Colin Maitland

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Re: New cyclone threat for North QLD 04/02/09
« Reply #1 on: 05 February 2009, 12:46:15 PM »
All the media hype up here in QLD is the looming threat of another Cyclone. It is has been on our news bulletin all day, but those wanting to keep a track of its progress, if it does eventuate is

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 3:53pm on Wednesday the 4th of February 2009

The monsoon trough lies over northern Australia with some embedded lows. One low
[expected Ellie] lies in the SE Gulf of Carpentaria. The other low has moved off
the Northern Tropical Coast and now lies NE of Flinders Island in the Coral Sea.
This low shows little organisation at present and it appears it will take at
least 24 to 48 to reach Tropical Cyclone strength if indeed it does. The
limiting factor is the proximity of the low in the Gulf of Carpentaria.

The chances of a tropical cyclone forming in the trough is assessed as:
Until Thursday afternoon: Low
Until Friday afternoon: Moderate

Both WA and QLD systems at this stage seem to be moving away from the cost looking at the models,need to wait and see.
« Last Edit: 05 February 2009, 12:59:25 PM by coltan »

Offline Colin Maitland

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Re: New cyclone threat for North QLD 04/02/09
« Reply #2 on: 06 February 2009, 09:26:24 AM »
Just keeping update with what is happening,   Colton what is the source of this information?

Forecasters fear ex-tropical cyclone Ellie, now over the Gulf of Carpentaria, could re-form and a low east of Cardwell, south of Cairns, could also develop into a cyclone within 24 to 48 hours.

Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Geoff Doueal said both lows continue to dump between 200mm to 300mm of rain a day.

Weary emergency crews, who have been working around the clock across the north, are getting some relief.

On Wednesday night, southeast Queensland sent 10 State Emergency Service volunteers and 16 Queensland Fire and Rescue Service personnel to Townsville.

The Red Cross, Department of Communities and Queensland Ambulance Service are also in place.

Emergency crews are waiting for river levels to drop below seven metres before the clean-up can begin in earnest.
« Last Edit: 06 February 2009, 11:36:44 AM by Jimmy Deguara »

Offline Colin Maitland

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Re: New cyclone threat for North QLD 04/02/09
« Reply #3 on: 06 February 2009, 02:21:51 PM »

Looks like the high in the Tasman Sea is going to fizzle out the chance of TC in QLD, will still keep a eye on it, but it is starting to look doubtful now.
Still plenty of rain about though.

Offline Colin Maitland

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Re: New cyclone threat for North QLD 04/02/09
« Reply #4 on: 08 February 2009, 02:22:40 AM »
It is looking a if there is no longer a threat from the two lows that were of North QLD coast. the remaining low is vey weak, still keeping an eye on it just in case, but for the records the BOM update is.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 2:30pm on Friday the 6th of February 2009

The monsoon trough extended across the central Coral Sea. A weakening low is
embedded on the trough near Innisfail south of Cairns. This low is not expected
to develop into a tropical cyclone. There are no other disturbances located in
the Coral Sea at present.
 
Tropical Cyclone outlooks issued by Brisbane can be accessed through the
Bureau's Home Page http://www.bom.gov.au.