Author Topic: Tornadoes Slight risk for much of the High Plains tomorrow!  (Read 4813 times)

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Tornadoes Slight risk for much of the High Plains tomorrow!
« on: 07 October 2011, 03:00:14 AM »
Slight risk for much of the High Plains tomorrow!

Modest moisture return and weak instability will limit a more widespread severe weather event tomorrow afternoon/evening, but all modes of severe weather are expected--including the risk of isolated tornadoes.  The photo, left, shows the areas highlighted, in yellow ,by the Storm Prediction Center for tomorrow for the greatest severe weather threat.  Current surface observations show mid to upper 50 dewpoints in the Texas Panhandle with lower 60 dew points onshore near the Texas gulf coast. Moisture return will try and make its way up from the gulf, but is rather shallow, and will advect northward as far north as western South Dakota by midday tomorrow.</p>
<p>With the approach of a strong mid-level trough and strong surface heating beneath cool, mid-level temps--this will result in instability of 500-1000 j/kg for much of the highlighted area. This could be enough for the risk for large hail, strong winds and the possibility of a tornado or two.  The two areas, I believe, that have the greatest threat for tornadoes are in the southern target (towards dusk) in the Texas Panhandle into southwest Kansas and somewhere in between I-70 and I-80 in Kansas and Nebraska.

The forecasted LCL's (cloud bases) are rather high in the southern target, but a higher elevation, deeper moisture/stronger instability under a strongly-sheared environment could be enough for a tornado or two, possibly just after dark.  The more likely area for a daylight tornado, would be in the early stages of storm initiation in western South Dakota/ NW Nebraska with lower LCLs (cloud bases), but given the weak instability/moisture return and backing of the mid-level winds, strong winds and large hail seem more likely.  It's a tough forecast for those storm chasing tomorrow, but my current plan is to head west on I-80 and determine tomorrow morning a more defined target.

Stay tuned as numerous storm chasers will be out and about in the slight risk area and will be streaming href=" LIVE video as things unfold.  Friday, will once again bring another chance of severe weather a little further east!
« Last Edit: 07 October 2011, 08:18:39 AM by Michael Bath »