Author Topic: Tornadoes Severe weather outbreak possible tomorrow in OK and KS!  (Read 2794 times)

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Severe weather outbreak possible tomorrow in OK and KS!

Severe weather is in the forecast for today, from parts of Minnesota and  Wisconsin southeast all the way to the Carolina coast. Large hail, damaging  winds and a marginal tornado threat will exist over this area into the  evening. The main story is the potent mid-level storm system that will eject  into the southern Plains Wednesday, resulting in what should be the first  significant severe weather event since the modern-day Super Outbreak which  portions of the southern U.S. experienced during late April. A robust field of  low-level moisture should be in place across most of Oklahoma and Kansas by  mid-afternoon tomorrow as a surface low currently parked over the extreme  western OK panhandle deepens and drifts northeast into northwest Kansas into the  evening. As this surface low migrates northward, a sharp dryline will take shape  from northwest Kansas into west-central Oklahoma and points south by  evening. Ample daytime heating and dewpoints in the 70s will allow for strong  instability to build throughout the day ahead of the dryline. Cooler  temperatures aloft along with the arrival of an upper-level jet max will promote  initiation along the dryline by mid/late-afternoon. Wind shear profiles suggest  that initial convection should be supercellular, and by early evening, low-level  wind shear should be most conducive for tornadoes, with the two areas  of particular interest residing along the central OK/Kansas border, as well as  along the triple point, which should materialize in northwest Kansas. As such,  the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Day-2 moderate risk for severe weather  across most of the southern and central Plains states. Storm chasers will likely  be out in force and streaming on the Live page. As always, residents of the  threatened areas are encouraged to monitor local conditions and statements from  NWS and media outlets.
« Last Edit: 12 May 2011, 02:05:48 AM by Michael Bath »