Author Topic: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010  (Read 20957 times)

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Offline Colin Maitland

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BOM is going for the forecast of a possible storm for Brisbane and SEQ on Thursday (07/10/10) afternoon.

Mean while a severe storm warning has just been issued for the Wide Bay and Burnett area with  a small cell that has developed around Childers.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in parts of the
Wide Bay and Burnett Forecast District.

Issued at 2:52 pm Tuesday, 5 October 2010.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Childers.
« Last Edit: 06 October 2010, 10:52:01 AM by Michael Bath »

Offline Colin Maitland

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RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
« Reply #1 on: 06 October 2010, 12:18:06 PM »
The forecast from BOM for Melbourne and parts of Victoria for Wednesday the 06/10/10 is:

Cloudy. Patchy fog early in the morning. Isolated showers developing during the morning, increasing to scattered heavy showers around midday, easing to isolated showers later in the evening. Scattered thunderstorms from the late morning until evening. Winds northeasterly averaging up to 20 km/h tending northerly up to 35 km/h during the morning then tending west to southwesterly by early evening.


Sam Terry from Weather Zone News reported on the event by stating

Australia is only a little way into the storm season and already severe storms are on the way, with Melbourne in the firing line of a battering.

A fast-moving cold front is poised to sweep into Victoria and Tasmania tomorrow, causing thunderstorms to fire up in the areas ahead of it.

The Western and Wimmera districts should be affected first, with storms perhaps even popping up as early as 8am. As the day progresses, the storms should become more frequent and widespread.

Plenty of moisture will filter in ahead of the front, and instability will be deep, both factors that indicate heavy rain and flash flooding could occur.

Melbourne will be a sitting duck as the front approaches, with northwesterly winds driving in showers and storms from the higher ground. Storms are likeliest during early afternoon, but could occur anywhere from 10am to 3pm.

Behind the front, winds will be very gusty and much cooler, delivering showers during the evening. All in all, residents of central Victoria should be prepared for a wild day.

Keep checking weatherzone.com.au for the latest forecasts.


Col


Offline Peter J

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RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
« Reply #2 on: 07 October 2010, 03:42:30 AM »
For those interested in chasing storms today in VIC:

From my vantage point in the outer East, there is already a storm tower forming in the west (estimated around Bendigo) it is a weak one at the moment, but it could strengthen as the day goes on... yesterday finished humid, and this morning (9.35am) is warm and humid - just one cell in visible sight... and the winds have picked up - certainly warmer than normal here.
For once I think we are in for severe storm as forecasted...

Peter J
(observing)
PJJ

Offline Hardy25

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RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
« Reply #3 on: 07 October 2010, 04:14:33 AM »
For those interested in chasing storms today in VIC:

From my vantage point in the outer East, there is already a storm tower forming in the west (estimated around Bendigo) it is a weak one at the moment, but it could strengthen as the day goes on... yesterday finished humid, and this morning (9.35am) is warm and humid - just one cell in visible sight... and the winds have picked up - certainly warmer than normal here.
For once I think we are in for severe storm as forecasted...

Peter J
(observing)


yeah i agree with the warm weather in vic atm, not unusual for this time of year but coming straight out of winter weather last week im guessing some nice storms will build today
might go out and take a look see if i can get some pics, gotta love day off
we had some really heavy rain 2 nights ago over bayside very loud on the tin roof



*edit* 1:46pm chased storm cells south of bay side but moving too fast to continue to get in front of it
« Last Edit: 07 October 2010, 07:47:27 AM by Hardy25 »

Offline Colin Maitland

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RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
« Reply #4 on: 07 October 2010, 08:04:07 AM »
Looking at some of the Sat obs late yesterday afternoon it looked like Victoria was in for some severe weather .
BOM have issued 2 warnings one for Melbourne area and the latter for  people in the Northern Country, North Central, East Gippsland, Central and parts of the Mallee, Northeast, Wimmera, West and South Gippsland, Western and Alpine Forecast Districts.  The warnings are both similar.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - MELBOURNE AREA
for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in the South East, Western Port and parts of the Inner, Eastern, Mornington Peninsula, Outer East and Port Phillip Local Warning Areas.

Issued at 1:36 pm Wednesday, 6 October 2010.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 1:35 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Camberwell, Caulfield, Melbourne City and the area east of Colac. These thunderstorms are moving towards the southeast. They are forecast to affect Cranbourne, Dandenong and Frankston by 2:05 pm and Bass, San Remo and Wonthaggi by 2:35 pm.

Damaging winds, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones are likely.


Southern NSW has also been issued a STW

EVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for LARGE HAILSTONES and DAMAGING WIND

For people in parts of the
Riverina and
Lower Western Forecast Districts.

Issued at 1:39 pm Wednesday, 6 October 2010.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce large hailstones and damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Albury, Deniliquin, Hay and Balranald.


Take care

Col

Offline Hardy25

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RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
« Reply #5 on: 07 October 2010, 08:10:16 AM »
its pretty intense we went up2 carrum and watched it pass over but it started pelting rain and we ended up drenched

its pretty active lots of thunder and lightning we had a strike under 15 meters away and was almost like a flash bang

we decided there was way too much rain to continue and looking at radar the really active cells had already moved offshore and the other one was not accesable to us its on the western side of the bay moving south and offshore

the storms are moving pretty fast and we werent positioned well enough to get anything great footage wise or picture wise

i should of looked at forecast models last night and this morning but was busy, but was a very fun late morning and early afternoon

*edit*  there are still some very active storms pushing through now, but its full of very heavy rain

Offline Richary

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RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
« Reply #6 on: 07 October 2010, 08:57:16 AM »
The Yarrawonga doppler wind looks like something nasty is happening around Numurkah at the moment (0352 timestamp).

Offline Hardy25

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RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
« Reply #7 on: 07 October 2010, 09:23:38 AM »
The Yarrawonga doppler wind looks like something nasty is happening around Numurkah at the moment (0352 timestamp).

looks like a rotation of some sorts you can see the 2 small red bits hmmm good spotting'

anybody else more knowledgeable on this?

Offline Colin Maitland

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RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
« Reply #8 on: 07 October 2010, 10:33:37 AM »
Unfortunately I missed on seeing any rotation on the radar,( I'll need to check the archive run for today) but I did observe that wind gust reached 70 km/h at St Kilda Harbour RMYS at 1.21 pm, 69 km/h at Rhyll at 1.54pm and 72 km/h at Fawkner Beacon at 1.06pm. Much of Melbourne had wind gust over 50-60km/h as the front moved through.

The day satellite image is very impressive but I have not posted it due to the file still being 156KB.

The radar was also impressive as you can see the squall line move through to the south of Victoria

It will very interesting to hear or see any reports or chases from folks down there.

Col

Offline Kristy Norman

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RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
« Reply #9 on: 07 October 2010, 10:43:46 AM »
Some action around this arvo, these photos taken at about 4:15 to 4:30 looking South, south west from our place.

Nice to see some Spring storms this year!!


Offline Kristy Norman

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RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
« Reply #10 on: 07 October 2010, 11:22:32 AM »
A few more from a storm belting us hard at the moment.


« Last Edit: 07 October 2010, 11:30:17 AM by Kristy Norman »

Offline Richary

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RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
« Reply #11 on: 07 October 2010, 11:31:38 AM »
Here is the Yarrawonga doppler wind loop between 2-4pm local time.

See : 128km Radar Loop for Yarrawonga, 03:00 06/10/2010 to 05:00 06/10/2010 UTC

Offline Colin Maitland

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RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
« Reply #12 on: 07 October 2010, 01:07:19 PM »
Storm warnings are still in place for NSW and Victoria. Currently this is large area still under threat from severe storms in Victoria as the threat slowly moves east.

Tomorrow afternoon should see parts of Northern NSW and QLD affected by storms as the trough continues to move in an easterly direction.

Col

Offline Antonio (stormboy)

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RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
« Reply #13 on: 07 October 2010, 03:30:03 PM »
It looks like NE NSW and SE QLD are in with a possible storm tomorrow after midday.

the image gif below is the BSCH outlook of Cape tomorrow 10am - 7pm (CLICK ON GIF TO ACTIVATE PLAY)

Antonio.

Offline Antonio (stormboy)

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RE: VIC, NSW & SE QLD Storms then Rain & Floods 5 - 11 October 2010
« Reply #14 on: 07 October 2010, 04:25:56 PM »
hey gang have Created a Gif from todays event you may save it if you wish i hope you enjoy

 

Antonio.