Author Topic: Tornadoes Severe weather returns to the Southern Plains! Hurricane warning for NC  (Read 1582 times)

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Severe weather returns to the Southern Plains!  Hurricane warning for NC

The same trough of low pressure helping to spare most of the East Coast  from the brunt of Hurricane Earl, will result in severe weather across  the Central and Southern Plains today, and possibly even tornadoes.   Still though, Hurricane Earl will likely lash the Outer Banks of North  Carolina with hurricane force winds, hence hurricane warnings are  currently in effect for this area.  Today is a perfect example of the  conflict we face as storm chasers almost every fall, when we have to  decide between chasing a recurving hurricane or a potential tornado  threat associated with the ejecting trough.  This case presents a  relatively easy situation, as the eye wall of Hurricane Earl should  remain offshore, except when it makes landfall in southwest Nova Scotia,  but by then the tropical cyclone will be quickly transitioning to  extratropical.  Still though, any slight westward deviation from the  current forecast track (very similar to the yesterday's track posted  below) could mean big problems for the Mid-Atlantic Coast and even New  England.  On the flip-side, the environment in the Central Plains east  of the advancing cold front this afternoon will be characterized by  marginal low-level wind shear, decent instability, and a myriad of  outflow boundaries from overnight convection that could aid in  tornadogenesis with any isolated supercells.  Accordingly, the Storm  Prediction Center has issued a slight risk and 5% tornado probability  from southern South Dakota southward into central Kansas.  Now for the  current update on the hurricane situation..  Earl is currently churning  over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream just east of the Bahamas, with a  minimum central pressure of 943 mb and maximum sustained winds  estimated at around 110 knots.  Based on the current satellite loop, it  does look like Hurricane Earl is occasionally being negaitvely impacted  by dry air intrusions into the circulation, which is likely the same  pool of dry air aloft that prevailed over the entire Central U.S. --  which was responsible for the intense microburst we had in Norman last  week.  The southern feeder band is also not nearly as robust as the  northern side, which is often the case with recurving hurricanes as they  are "stretched" between the subtropical anticyclone to the east, and  the advancing mid-latitude trough to the west.  Still though, Earl  remains a major hurricane, and is still very capable of causing  significant damage particularly along the North Carolina Outer Banks as  the storm ejects off to the north toward the Canadian Maritimes.  TVN  storm chasers will be in the field this afternoon, so be sure to check  out, and  stay tuned for further updates!
« Last Edit: 03 September 2010, 08:07:29 AM by Michael Bath »