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Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 07:12:26 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain (long email)
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Anthony that graph you have described is important but in a discussion with
Paul Graham, we decided that some of the more violent tornadoes tend to
occur in a group with high SRH and high CAPE at the same time. I know that
it would potentially be a massive complex. I think this may have been the
case in Oklahoma City May 3 outbreak from observation of the satpic
animation for the day. What do others think?
Jimmy Deguara
At 10:38 AM 30/04/01 -0700, you wrote:
>Hi Anthony,
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Anthony Cornelius"
>To:
>Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2001 9:49 PM
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain (long email)
>
>
> > But certainly I can see how it can be applies to some situations when
> > the shear is "right." I think one of the most interesting correlations
> > I've seen is the CAPE and SRH graph, with tornado occurrences plotted on
> > it for a certain region. The higher the CAPE (measure of instability),
> > the less SRH (measure of speed & directional shear) was needed.
> > Alternatively, the higher the SRH, the lower the CAPE that was needed.
> > I believe they also plotted EHI on this as well (which is a combination
> > of these two with a scaling factor).
> >
>
>I'm curious about this last statment as high shear generally requires high
>CAPE so the sotorms can stand up against them without being decapitated?
>
>Cheers, Lyle
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia
e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
Web Page with Michael Bath
Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com
President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 07:45:03 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Jonty,
Your thoughts are exactly what I am thinking about that we simply do not
know. We have only covered a small proportion of our countryside over a two
year period really. And usually when you want to be out there, you can't!!!
Now the argument is not about chasing but I do believe that video and
photographic evidence is more effective to help identify and also help
educate others in identifying wall clouds, funnels and tornadoes as we see
them rather than apply the typical model we see in the US documentaries
where you tend to see text book cases, and often the footage you see are
repeated time and time again in documentaries giving the impression of more
violent tornadoes than actually occurs.
One question before I proceed: have the US chasers and researchers talked
about Australian conditions? I mean have they been able to compare US
satellite picture based data with supercell outbreaks here and even suspect
probable tornadic activity? I am just curious as there may be patterns
where one probably can with a high degree of certainty suspect tornadic
activity..
However, I do believe that since conditions come together more often, then
the US do have more tornadoes and therefore a larger proportion of larger
ones. However, it seems the regularity of the conditions tends to occur
April to June. Our storm season, like others of course, seems to be able to
start from August and spread all the way to April in most years. We do not
have a prescribed season.
Further, there was an argument put forward about the continental land mass
allowing for cold air to come southwards with larger temperature
differences but these tend to be more important and more frequent earlier
in the season. As Jonty suggests, the synoptic conditions is not far
fetched from Australia considering out latitude. I think the late
spring/early summer season tends to be more aligned with similar profiles
to what we enjoy here. Again the lower level jet is the key factor in my
opinion that we have lacked in storms we have chased.
I think the answer will not come thoroughly from storm chasing alone but by
improvements in remote sensing from satellites. Determining the wind flow
at the surface and teaming up with observers/storm chasers is a very
important project that I would like to be part of. It may help verify what
conditions have occurred when we get more explosive environments -
particularly when tornadic supercells are observed and perhaps compare to
the US. Unfortunately, we do not have the "needs" for such research to take
place but you never know if the US researchers may want to team up with
Australian researchers to help improve global models on finer grid scale.
Anyway, I think it is an exciting time ahead.
Jimmy Deguara
At 09:40 PM 30/04/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi David and all,
>
>Just a couple more points. Firstly, I do not believe that any conclusive
>evidence exists that there is any dynamical difference between US
>supercells and Australian ones (other than the change of hemisphere). A
>supercell is a mode of convection that is the result of a variety of
>environmental factors. It does not appear to make any difference how these
>influences are brought together synoptically. In the great plains of the
>US, for a variety of reasons, these influences are in place more often
>than anywhere else. But despite a heck of a lot of research and
>observation, don't be too confident that even in the US they know all
>there is to know about supercell and tornado dynamics, and so comparing
>them to ours, which we know even less about, is a bit of a stab in the
>dark. Neither do I think you can say with any level of confidence at all
>that a smaller fraction of our supercells are tornadic. As an example, you
>only have to look at April 6 this year on the US plains. A strong surface
>low, rich boundary layer moisture in the warm sector with strong
>convergence about the cold front and dry line, vigorous mid-level short
>wave overlain by a strong upper jet all combined to give classic major
>outbreak conditions, with very steep lapse rates approaching dry adiabatic
>to 500 hPa, surface based CAPEs of 2500-3000, moderate low level capping,
>with good low-level and deep layer shear with SRH in the 300-500. I'm
>sure I just made a few mouths water - but the result? A grand total of 2
>brief, weak tornadoes. Plenty of large hail and wind damage reports, but
>virtually no tornadoes, and certainly no significant ones. What happened?
>The same thing that often happens, even over there. Supercells, but no low
>level rotation, and no tornadoes. Why did it happen (or not happen) - no
>one knows.
>
>Studies of Australian supercells are in their infancy it is true. But an
>important factor to understand here is that even in the US, only a SMALL
>minority of supercells are tornadic. This cannot be emphasised enough.
>Figures are hard to give with any certainty, but it is probably somewhere
>near 20%. Low level rotation cannot be considered as a benchmark of US
>supercells, or anything of the sort, as the majority of them simply do not
>have it. Do not be overly influenced by graphic pictures of big outbreak
>days. You do not see anything from the majority of days when the
>supercells do not produce anything other than large hail or damaging
>straight line winds (or nothing at all) - for example April 6 (this is
>quite a spectacular failure case, but there are countless less eyeopening
>ones every year)!
>
>One other thing to remember is that quite a large fraction of initial
>tornado reports in the US (which are later placed in the US tornado data
>set) do not come from chasers, or even registered spotters. They come from
>locals - policemen, shopkeepers, teachers, folk in the street. How many of
>those would be reported in Australia? A hell of a lot fewer, because a)
>there are way way less streets for people to be in, and b) a much smaller
>proportion of people would know a tornado if they fell over one, or would
>recogonise the importance of reporting it even if they did. With the vast
>majority of our (comparitively) miniscule population living on the coastal
>strip where a larger proportion of HP supercells with poor visibility and
>poor viewing conditions could be expected, the situation is even worse.
>
>Overall, it is a fascinating subject isn't it, and one I know quite a few
>of the American researchers are interested in...
>
>Jonty.
>
>
>
>On Mon, 30 Apr 2001, David Croan wrote:
>
> >
> >
>>The point about supercell research being mostly
> based on the US
> > >>experience
> > >>is valid. I do personally believe we have a slightly
> different
> >
> > >>animal.
> >
> >
I agree Michael and I suppose this argument could be used anywhere
> in the world. I think the US is quite unique in that it seems so ideally
> located and geographically configured for 'the' animal. To me
> Australia is not, and I'm not sure thatwe have a severe storm 'set
> -up' any better than South America or even Africa. I believe we have a
> less ideal setup than China, and other parts of Asia (Bangladesh for
> example).
> >
> >
Based on the efforts of chasers over the last several years, in my
> view it is quite telling that no supercells with rapidly rotating
> wall clouds, or even the dramatic base structure which is the hallmark of
> the US storms, have been caught on video. We get giant hail, we get
> 100+ mph straight line winds and monster 18+ km high
> storms. But we seem to get very few storms that exhibit strong
> rotation at the lower levels, something that I believe will be confirmed
> over the coming years.
> >
> >
It is still early days as far as Australian chasing goes, but my
> suspicion is that the prime areas have been well covered by chasers now.
> I know great storms will continue to be caught on video although i think
> the tornadoes will continue to be few and far between. In comparison
> to the US, I think it is quite obvious that they get
> more supercells than Australia and many more tornadic supercells.
> >
> >
Based on my armchair observations over the last few years, a
> typical spring period in the US sees instability persisting over much
> broader areas than Australia, is more extreme and of course both speed
> and dierctional windshear is much better. Still we get our fair share and
> as a storm chaser rather than a tornado chaser, I for one am not
> dissapointed with what we get!
Get Your
> Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at href="http://www.hotmail.com">http://www.hotmail.com.
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> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia
e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
Web Page with Michael Bath
Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com
President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Godsman, Andrew AG"
To: "aussie-weather at world. std. com (E-mail)"
Subject: aus-wx: Heavy Wollongong Rain
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 09:40:52 +1000
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Port Kembla 9:40am EST
It is fairly pizzling down in the Gong this morning. It has been fairly heavy since around 7pm last night, but since waking up at 5:30 this morning and donning the wet weather gear to ride to work it has been constant rain, mostly with small drops, but in the last two hours the intensity has been increasing markedly with frequent heavy periods of larger drops which would have to be close to 40mm+ per hour. I would guess that from the wind direction though that the heaviest rainfall would be just behind the escarpment and possibly southern Sydney where if it is heavier than here will be experiencing some flooding problems soon enough.
If the drizzle and rain of the last two nights and this morning doesn't green up the grass of Micheal T, then nothing will.
Cheers from a wet, but still stratocu'd Wollongong
Andrew Godsman
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: NSW AWS site not working properly?
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 11:04:25 +1000
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Hi all,
Has anyone else had problems with the NSW AWS site available to the public?
I can access the current page with all of the stations on it but when you go
to individual stations for the last 72 hours of records, it hasn't been
updated since 10am Monday. Just wondering if its my server (although it
hasn't done this before) or at the Bom's end?
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN65091.shtml
Cheers,
Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath, Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: violin at lisp.com.au
Blackheath Weather:
http://www.lisp.com.au/~violin/blackhth.htm
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 11:55:43 +1000
From: Andrew Miskelly
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy Wollongong Rain
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Hi all,
Ironically enough, Michael T's grass might not have been greened at all.
The obs for 9AM this morning show that both Wollongong and Bellambi got
about 20mm overnight but that Wollongong AWS (at Albion Park which is
closer to Michael) only got 0.2mm!
This sort of thing was also experienced in the metro with the airport
scoring more that double (94mm) anywhere else around. The radar revealed
that this was due to 'elongated' bands of showers moving on to the coast
and dumping on a 'small' area for an extended period of time.
Andrew.
"Godsman, Andrew AG" wrote:
>
> Port Kembla 9:40am EST
>
> It is fairly pizzling down in the Gong this morning. It has been fairly heavy since around 7pm last night, but since waking up at 5:30 this morning and donning the wet weather gear to ride to work it has been constant rain, mostly with small drops, but in the last two hours the intensity has been increasing markedly with frequent heavy periods of larger drops which would have to be close to 40mm+ per hour. I would guess that from the wind direction though that the heaviest rainfall would be just behind the escarpment and possibly southern Sydney where if it is heavier than here will be experiencing some flooding problems soon enough.
>
> If the drizzle and rain of the last two nights and this morning doesn't green up the grass of Micheal T, then nothing will.
>
> Cheers from a wet, but still stratocu'd Wollongong
> Andrew Godsman
>
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
--
With regard to (and in protest of) the new laws involving forwarding of
messages, this email MAY be forwarded.
Andrew Miskelly
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 14:19:26 +1000 (EST)
From: Robert Goler
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Satellite loop flexibility
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Hi all
I don't know if anyone else has noticed this, but I was just playing
around with the satellite image loops provided by
http://207.133.112.37/cgi-bin/main.pl?aust
when I realised you can change the image size and number of images to
loop. For example, with the current IR loop
http://207.133.112.37/cgi-bin/movie.pl?sat+jpg+12+682+602+aust+ir+auir20011210231.jpg
the number '12' after the 'jpg' represents the number of images in the
loop, eg change this to 6, 16, etc
the next two numbers '682' and '602' are the image size. This always
puzzled me why the loop image is so small compared to the still. To get
the original size, just change these numbers to 1364 and 1204
respectively. The first number is the y-dimension, and the second the x.
These details apply also to the other loops provided.
Cheers
--
Robert A. Goler
E-mail Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia
--
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 15:54:12 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain (long email)
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Hi Jimmy,
Given that (IMO), these are one of the two most major factors - you'd
require both to be present in large quantities to produce the "perfect"
conditions. If they both contribute to tornado liklihood, then you'd
expect both ingredients if present in large quantities to contribute to
larger/more violent tornadoes. Ultimately the trade-off 'effect' would
tend to produce smaller/weaker/shorter lived tornadoes - but this is not
always the case, which I guess throws more fire into the debate of
tornadoes and how they form..
AC
Jimmy Deguara wrote:
>
> Anthony that graph you have described is important but in a discussion with
> Paul Graham, we decided that some of the more violent tornadoes tend to
> occur in a group with high SRH and high CAPE at the same time. I know that
> it would potentially be a massive complex. I think this may have been the
> case in Oklahoma City May 3 outbreak from observation of the satpic
> animation for the day. What do others think?
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
> At 10:38 AM 30/04/01 -0700, you wrote:
> >Hi Anthony,
> >
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: "Anthony Cornelius"
> >To:
> >Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2001 9:49 PM
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain (long email)
> >
> >
> > > But certainly I can see how it can be applies to some situations when
> > > the shear is "right." I think one of the most interesting correlations
> > > I've seen is the CAPE and SRH graph, with tornado occurrences plotted on
> > > it for a certain region. The higher the CAPE (measure of instability),
> > > the less SRH (measure of speed & directional shear) was needed.
> > > Alternatively, the higher the SRH, the lower the CAPE that was needed.
> > > I believe they also plotted EHI on this as well (which is a combination
> > > of these two with a scaling factor).
> > >
> >
> >I'm curious about this last statment as high shear generally requires high
> >CAPE so the sotorms can stand up against them without being decapitated?
> >
> >Cheers, Lyle
> >
> >
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> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
>
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
>
> Web Page with Michael Bath
>
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 15:50:23 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain (long email)
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Hi Lyle,
Shear in itself can actually create instability. For example, strong
diffluent or divergent jets actually cause a lower pressure around
them. This is because more air is leaving the jet then enterting that
certain area. (An analogy of this is actually something I've observed
at Withcott on the Warrego Hwy :) Towards Withcott from Toowoomba, the
speed limit drops from 100 to 60, all the cars converge on each other
and bunch up as faster cars come from behind and slow down - there's
always people waiting near Withcott to join the highway, it's harder for
them here because there's lots of cars enterting. Just on the east side
if Withcott, the speed limit goes from 60 to 100, the cars first to hit
the 100 sign accelerate away from the cars behind them - leaving space
for cars to join the highway. Motto of this, you'll save time in busy
traffic trying to merge onto the highway on the east side of Withcott
heading east :-) But it's the same in jets - with more air leaving the
region then enterting it (by region I mean over a small area of space,
ie several km/tens of km), this causes a low pressure region and air
below it moves upward to replace it.
Diffluent jets have a similar effect - just think of lots of cars
leaving the highway due to lots of exits, and there's a lot more room
for other cars to join. IE - more air is leaving the area then entering
it, creating low pressure. So this helps in adding buoyancy to the
updraft. In high shear situations, low CAPE could prevail - but the
effects of an upper level trough/low and diffluent/divergent shear in
the mid-upper levels can assist in "pulling" an updraft (it doesn't
really pull though). I think high shear situations tend to be stronger
in winter as the jets are lower, so their impact is felt stronger in the
lower levels. A strong cold front, or even the convergence zone on the
coast due to wind friction (less friction on water than land), helps act
as a forcing mechanism.
AC
Lyle Pakula wrote:
>
> Hi Anthony,
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Anthony Cornelius"
> To:
> Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2001 9:49 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain (long email)
>
> > But certainly I can see how it can be applies to some situations when
> > the shear is "right." I think one of the most interesting correlations
> > I've seen is the CAPE and SRH graph, with tornado occurrences plotted on
> > it for a certain region. The higher the CAPE (measure of instability),
> > the less SRH (measure of speed & directional shear) was needed.
> > Alternatively, the higher the SRH, the lower the CAPE that was needed.
> > I believe they also plotted EHI on this as well (which is a combination
> > of these two with a scaling factor).
> >
>
> I'm curious about this last statment as high shear generally requires high
> CAPE so the sotorms can stand up against them without being decapitated?
>
> Cheers, Lyle
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 16:05:10 +0930
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From: Phil Bagust
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Might I add another factor which might be hiding the number of Australian
tornados [along with low population density, low public knowledge of
supercells, bad road networks, not to mention any dynamic atmospheric
differences] - might there be a difference in the percentage of aussie
supercells that produce highly visible, easily verifyable to a member of
the lay public, condensation funnels? If for some reason [higher
condensation levels, less available moisture etc] a large number of aussie
vorticies were only visible as a short inverted cone at cloudbase, and a
debris swirl if they touched down. Hardly your average wedge that people
are familiar with on TV - they might not recognise a twister that was right
in front of them for what it was.
Might be blowing out of my proverbial, but it was a thought.
Phil
Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
"...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..." Noel Coward
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 16:31:39 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List
Subject: aus-wx: Small Reflection on Chasing
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
I may bore people here :) But I finally did manage to watch the
documentary that was pointed out before (I taped it). It was
interesting watching it, while it was slightly corny/angled at the UK
couple's life (I half expected you to be on it Les Crossan :-)
Besides the fact I love storms/weather - the woman did touch on one of
the fundamental reasons I love chasing. The hours on the road (I love
driving though), but being in the middle of nowhere, out in the country,
just driving or sitting beside the road doing nothing...you're always in
a new surrounding environment, and it's the perfect opportunity to
reflect back on things in your life, think about any problems, think
about any dreams or aspirations - even try and solve the world's
problems :-) It's just truly bliss sitting beside the roadside,
smelling the farming hay nearby from a light, humid N'ly in the 30C
temperatures. It just really is so relaxing, and it adds a marked
contrast to the somewhat high-paced action that (hopefully!) happens
after! It really is like a type of adventure, you don't really know
what's going to happen, and you don't really know where you're going to
end up (although you have an idea).
I guess this is another aspect to why I love chasing for a couple of
weeks towards the end of year - again, ignoring the factor of 24/7 of
potential weather/storms! But you never know where you're going to end
up, and it just makes it that little bit more exciting. You learn a lot
about Australia travelling all over the country side, and you visit
places that you haven't even heard of before! Each of them having some
aspect of them that sticks in your mind forever...to name just a few
(I'm sure many will know what I'm talking about):
- We got thrown out of a restaurant in Thargomindah for asking to buy
dinner, and a certain person got half the town drunk in the pub and then
there was a domestic at 12:30am in the motel carpark!
- The Warrego Wizzard in Charleville
- The "button person" in Bourke
- Cunnamulla pizza poisoning & powerade night
- In Theodore if 3 people tried to talk on their mobile, the signal
would all drop out
- "The Quirindi Wind Event"
The list goes on and on, lots of memories, lots of fun!
I liked how this documentary commented and touched on a few of these
sorts of points (ie, it's not *just* the weather), it's just great full
stop!
Reflecting back on last year, it was the first year I was truly able to
chase properly, and while the season didn't even match past seasons I
recall in Brisbane...it was infinitely better! One of my favourite
events was November 2-7, I was able to chase on Nov3-6, covering over
2000km in SE QLD. It was absolutely tremendous, the amount I learnt
about supercells was incredible! There were other memorable moments -
in October, driving through a weak tornado was certainly a hair-raising
experience! Followed by a few days after by a midnight outing to what
looked like weak thunderstorms, gave severe weather to parts of the Gold
Coast. A week later Oct 25/26 was another great couple of days, with
lightning going all through the night on the 26th with some of the most
amazing (and frequent displays). After TD2K (which was beyond any words
or description, both regarding weather and non-weather related things),
there were a couple of days of storms in the Downs. I was able to chase
one of these days and got some very nice wind and hail, as well as some
nice lightning on video. Things quietened down through December after
that, although around Christmas we had a couple of days of storms to wet
our appetite, and again towards the 2nd week of January. January 17 and
18 were again, beyond words - at least, until I saw Michael Bath's
footage of this day (with anything else I had seen in QLD looking rather
tame) - truly incredible couple of supercells. Again ten days after
that, another few days of storms gave some "fun chases" - although it
ended with a bit of a low note when while driving through heavy rain, my
car careered into a floodway which I hadn't seen - the water was high
enough to nearly go over the bonnet. Fortunately the damage to the car
didn't exceed much over $200. February was rather quiet though storm
wise. Although we did get some rather significant flooding!
March was great - although the quality of storms wasn't always there,
but March 9 let everyone know that the storm season wasn't over yet!
Some some places receiving 200mm in 50mins. A few days after, what was
a fairly benign (yet nice!) looking shelf cloud turned into a monster,
which made my day! To complete it, a 2hr lightning show with lightning
over second spread across a 180 degree northern horizon. It was by then
I was truly content - I had already "talked to myself" about the season
winding down, and it had done the opposite! There were up to about 18
or so thunderdays in SEQ during March, certainly quite active! Humidity
was very high for a large chunk of this. Even April came as a bonus
when just recently we had some storms in SEQ and the Downs. And even
now there are storms to the NW of Brisbane towards the Brisbane
Valley/NE Downs region.
It really has been a great year - it's not hard to say why I like
chasing so much, there are just so many aspects which make it enjoyable
for me!
--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 18:29:57 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Phil,
There certainly is truth in what you say. Most of the tornadoes/possible
tornadoes have been observed without the so-called typical text book funnel
reaching the ground. Good point made but I suppose time will tell what is
observed in the future.
The time when I stopped to think about what is observed here as compared to
the US is when I saw chasers referring to wall clouds that didn't even look
like such. I mean i nice circular base rotating either slightly or rapidly.
Well, when I observe small prongs in videos, I found myself reflecting back
on my photos only to find very similar examples.
An example might come in handy here:
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/wall01.htm refer to the
wall cloud pics 3/4 way down the page with Riverstone and Rooty Hill listed
on the same storm. If you doubt this, I have seen US examples and these
were rotating (I think anti-cyclonically but I couldn't be sure) and the
storm had a very strong updraught.
Also
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2000/1204jd12.jpg now
this one would not even qualify in most people's book but it rotated
anti-cyclonically and was maintained for over 20 minutes but obviously was
never going to do anything.
And this:
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2000/1208jd04.jpg
Yes it was underneath the main updraught and eventually became this later on:
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2000/1208jd14.jpg
Quite interesting.
Jimmy Deguara
At 04:05 PM 1/05/01 +0930, you wrote:
>
>
>Might I add another factor which might be hiding the number of Australian
>tornados [along with low population density, low public knowledge of
>supercells, bad road networks, not to mention any dynamic atmospheric
>differences] - might there be a difference in the percentage of aussie
>supercells that produce highly visible, easily verifyable to a member of
>the lay public, condensation funnels? If for some reason [higher
>condensation levels, less available moisture etc] a large number of aussie
>vorticies were only visible as a short inverted cone at cloudbase, and a
>debris swirl if they touched down. Hardly your average wedge that people
>are familiar with on TV - they might not recognise a twister that was right
>in front of them for what it was.
>
>Might be blowing out of my proverbial, but it was a thought.
>
>Phil
>
>Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
>- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
> "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..." Noel Coward
>
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia
e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
Web Page with Michael Bath
Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com
President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "James Pickett"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy SYDNEY METRO rain was (Wollongong Rain)
Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 08:43:39 -0000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 01 May 2001 08:43:40.0061 (UTC) FILETIME=[D20094D0:01C0D21A]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
yeah a huge dumping over my place overnight(airport). I am still
convinced that at least 30-40 mm of that fell in 15 minutes this morning
around 7.30am. Driving to city around the airport tunnel traffic came to a
grinding holt with cars pulling over,slamming on brakes and others stopping
completely in the tunnel. Within minutes the road had become a torrent of
moving water and i was becoming increasingly uncomfortable not moving in it!
I swear that i couldnt see the car in front of me for a few minutes there,
and no the windows wernt fogged up.It was like night time! Incredible stuff!
Wonder if anyone can confirm this on radar?
After all of this i was late for tech and it just so happens that
everyone else in my class lives in the western suburbs, "what rain", "Your
full of it" and "Heard that one before" were all thrown at me. Very annoyed,
let me tell u!!
SEE YOU ALL LATER.
REGARDS JAMES P.
>From: Andrew Miskelly
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy Wollongong Rain
>Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 11:55:43 +1000
>
>Hi all,
>
>Ironically enough, Michael T's grass might not have been greened at all.
>The obs for 9AM this morning show that both Wollongong and Bellambi got
>about 20mm overnight but that Wollongong AWS (at Albion Park which is
>closer to Michael) only got 0.2mm!
>
>This sort of thing was also experienced in the metro with the airport
>scoring more that double (94mm) anywhere else around. The radar revealed
>that this was due to 'elongated' bands of showers moving on to the coast
>and dumping on a 'small' area for an extended period of time.
>
>Andrew.
>
>
>"Godsman, Andrew AG" wrote:
> >
> > Port Kembla 9:40am EST
> >
> > It is fairly pizzling down in the Gong this morning. It has been fairly
>heavy since around 7pm last night, but since waking up at 5:30 this morning
>and donning the wet weather gear to ride to work it has been constant rain,
>mostly with small drops, but in the last two hours the intensity has been
>increasing markedly with frequent heavy periods of larger drops which would
>have to be close to 40mm+ per hour. I would guess that from the wind
>direction though that the heaviest rainfall would be just behind the
>escarpment and possibly southern Sydney where if it is heavier than here
>will be experiencing some flooding problems soon enough.
> >
> > If the drizzle and rain of the last two nights and this morning doesn't
>green up the grass of Micheal T, then nothing will.
> >
> > Cheers from a wet, but still stratocu'd Wollongong
> > Andrew Godsman
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
>to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
>your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>--
>
>With regard to (and in protest of) the new laws involving forwarding of
>messages, this email MAY be forwarded.
>
>Andrew Miskelly
>amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
_________________________________________________________________________
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 18:19:38 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Andrew Wall
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Small Reflection on Chasing
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I agree with you Anthony, great post by the way, probably the first essay I
have read of yours :)
Nothing like the thrill, the chase, the exploration of the country side,
while less than 1km away the ground is being pelted with 1 inch hail stones
and lightning that can only be counted in milli-seconds.
Andrew
At 04:31 PM 5/1/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi all,
>
>I may bore people here :) But I finally did manage to watch the
>documentary that was pointed out before (I taped it). It was
>interesting watching it, while it was slightly corny/angled at the UK
>couple's life (I half expected you to be on it Les Crossan :-)
>
>Besides the fact I love storms/weather - the woman did touch on one of
>the fundamental reasons I love chasing. The hours on the road (I love
>driving though), but being in the middle of nowhere, out in the country,
>just driving or sitting beside the road doing nothing...you're always in
>a new surrounding environment, and it's the perfect opportunity to
>reflect back on things in your life, think about any problems, think
>about any dreams or aspirations - even try and solve the world's
>problems :-) It's just truly bliss sitting beside the roadside,
>smelling the farming hay nearby from a light, humid N'ly in the 30C
>temperatures. It just really is so relaxing, and it adds a marked
>contrast to the somewhat high-paced action that (hopefully!) happens
>after! It really is like a type of adventure, you don't really know
>what's going to happen, and you don't really know where you're going to
>end up (although you have an idea).
>
>I guess this is another aspect to why I love chasing for a couple of
>weeks towards the end of year - again, ignoring the factor of 24/7 of
>potential weather/storms! But you never know where you're going to end
>up, and it just makes it that little bit more exciting. You learn a lot
>about Australia travelling all over the country side, and you visit
>places that you haven't even heard of before! Each of them having some
>aspect of them that sticks in your mind forever...to name just a few
>(I'm sure many will know what I'm talking about):
>
>- We got thrown out of a restaurant in Thargomindah for asking to buy
>dinner, and a certain person got half the town drunk in the pub and then
>there was a domestic at 12:30am in the motel carpark!
>- The Warrego Wizzard in Charleville
>- The "button person" in Bourke
>- Cunnamulla pizza poisoning & powerade night
>- In Theodore if 3 people tried to talk on their mobile, the signal
>would all drop out
>- "The Quirindi Wind Event"
>
>The list goes on and on, lots of memories, lots of fun!
>
>I liked how this documentary commented and touched on a few of these
>sorts of points (ie, it's not *just* the weather), it's just great full
>stop!
>
>Reflecting back on last year, it was the first year I was truly able to
>chase properly, and while the season didn't even match past seasons I
>recall in Brisbane...it was infinitely better! One of my favourite
>events was November 2-7, I was able to chase on Nov3-6, covering over
>2000km in SE QLD. It was absolutely tremendous, the amount I learnt
>about supercells was incredible! There were other memorable moments -
>in October, driving through a weak tornado was certainly a hair-raising
>experience! Followed by a few days after by a midnight outing to what
>looked like weak thunderstorms, gave severe weather to parts of the Gold
>Coast. A week later Oct 25/26 was another great couple of days, with
>lightning going all through the night on the 26th with some of the most
>amazing (and frequent displays). After TD2K (which was beyond any words
>or description, both regarding weather and non-weather related things),
>there were a couple of days of storms in the Downs. I was able to chase
>one of these days and got some very nice wind and hail, as well as some
>nice lightning on video. Things quietened down through December after
>that, although around Christmas we had a couple of days of storms to wet
>our appetite, and again towards the 2nd week of January. January 17 and
>18 were again, beyond words - at least, until I saw Michael Bath's
>footage of this day (with anything else I had seen in QLD looking rather
>tame) - truly incredible couple of supercells. Again ten days after
>that, another few days of storms gave some "fun chases" - although it
>ended with a bit of a low note when while driving through heavy rain, my
>car careered into a floodway which I hadn't seen - the water was high
>enough to nearly go over the bonnet. Fortunately the damage to the car
>didn't exceed much over $200. February was rather quiet though storm
>wise. Although we did get some rather significant flooding!
>
>March was great - although the quality of storms wasn't always there,
>but March 9 let everyone know that the storm season wasn't over yet!
>Some some places receiving 200mm in 50mins. A few days after, what was
>a fairly benign (yet nice!) looking shelf cloud turned into a monster,
>which made my day! To complete it, a 2hr lightning show with lightning
>over second spread across a 180 degree northern horizon. It was by then
>I was truly content - I had already "talked to myself" about the season
>winding down, and it had done the opposite! There were up to about 18
>or so thunderdays in SEQ during March, certainly quite active! Humidity
>was very high for a large chunk of this. Even April came as a bonus
>when just recently we had some storms in SEQ and the Downs. And even
>now there are storms to the NW of Brisbane towards the Brisbane
>Valley/NE Downs region.
>
>It really has been a great year - it's not hard to say why I like
>chasing so much, there are just so many aspects which make it enjoyable
>for me!
>--
>Anthony Cornelius
>Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
>Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
>(07) 3390 4812
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy Wollongong Rain
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 20:12:37 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
You hit the nail on the head Andrew. I spent a frustrating rainless night
here in Mt Warrigal. There was some drizzle when I left for work at 7.30am
this morning, which became heavier rain once in Wollongong itself.
There still is the potential for better things this week, but it depends on
that low in the Tasman, the various models are quite undecided about whether
it will head W/SW or stay stationary then drift towards NZ. Either way I
expect the seas to pick up to quite large by Thursday.
Michael
----- Original Message -----
From: "Andrew Miskelly"
To:
Sent: Tuesday, 1 May 2001 11:55
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Heavy Wollongong Rain
> Hi all,
>
> Ironically enough, Michael T's grass might not have been greened at all.
> The obs for 9AM this morning show that both Wollongong and Bellambi got
> about 20mm overnight but that Wollongong AWS (at Albion Park which is
> closer to Michael) only got 0.2mm!
>
> This sort of thing was also experienced in the metro with the airport
> scoring more that double (94mm) anywhere else around. The radar revealed
> that this was due to 'elongated' bands of showers moving on to the coast
> and dumping on a 'small' area for an extended period of time.
>
> Andrew.
>
>
> "Godsman, Andrew AG" wrote:
> >
> > Port Kembla 9:40am EST
> >
> > It is fairly pizzling down in the Gong this morning. It has been fairly
heavy since around 7pm last night, but since waking up at 5:30 this morning
and donning the wet weather gear to ride to work it has been constant rain,
mostly with small drops, but in the last two hours the intensity has been
increasing markedly with frequent heavy periods of larger drops which would
have to be close to 40mm+ per hour. I would guess that from the wind
direction though that the heaviest rainfall would be just behind the
escarpment and possibly southern Sydney where if it is heavier than here
will be experiencing some flooding problems soon enough.
> >
> > If the drizzle and rain of the last two nights and this morning doesn't
green up the grass of Micheal T, then nothing will.
> >
> > Cheers from a wet, but still stratocu'd Wollongong
> > Andrew Godsman
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
>
> With regard to (and in protest of) the new laws involving forwarding of
> messages, this email MAY be forwarded.
>
> Andrew Miskelly
> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill"
To: "Aussie-wx"
Subject: aus-wx: ASWA car stickers
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 20:40:03 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Evening all,
For those of you who are interested in purchasing an ASWA car sticker &
haven't had the chance to yet, you can have them mailed to you.
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/aswalogo.htm will give you an idea of
what they look like - they are on reflective backing & measure approx 15
x 10cm & look absolutely stunning!!! Great for cars, fridges,
schoolbags, luggage & anything else you want to make easily
recognisable!! They are $4 each (including postage & handling).
If you'd like to buy 1, 2, 4 (or 10 like someone whose name we won't
mention in Qld....) , just send a cheque or money order for the
appropriate amount made out to ASWA Inc, include your return postal
address & I'll pop them in the mail for you.
The postal address to send cheque / money order to is
ASWA - Victoria
227 / 16 Cotham Road
KEW Victoria 3101
Jane
PS: if you are in the USA, keep your eye out for a certain Jimmy Deguara
who will be out on the plains mid May to mid June - he'll have them on
his person!!
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Small Reflection on Chasing
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 20:40:12 +1000
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I think many of your points about chasing are similar to mine and others
too.
I must admit I like the excitement and anticipation of moving from air mass
and into another.
A classic example was the first group chase we had back in 1998 (
http://ozthunder.com/chase/tour.htm )
On the second week Jimmy, Paul Yole, myself and Clyve Herbert chased. The
day we left had seen a SE wind change move up the coast overnight. At
Wollongong it was overcast with the almost obligatory stratocumulus. However
once above the escarpment Paul and I could see far in the north a line of
castellanus. Therefore we knew the trough was roughly no more then 150kms
northwards. The excitement mounted.
We picked up Jimmy and Clyve and then hit the infamous Putty road. The start
of the road was under the stabilising SE, but as we ventured north we
eventually caught the trough line, then at around Singleton overtook it.
This is one of the aspects I love !!..........and it is one our USA brothers
( and sisters ) share too, how many times have you read a chase report
saying something like " we moved east to intercept the dryline " or " we
left Kansas under a grey overcast, but knew once we hit Texas we would again
be warm moist air "
The other aspect is learning. I think my 'gut knowledge' ( no wise cracks
please ) is very good, I do a lot on instinct and rarely refer to radar or
any data once on the road. However matched against this ability was a lack
of knowledge of things like what the upper atmosphere was doing, LI, and
CAPES, so chasing and interacting with other chasers has taught me many
skills over the years.
Michael
> Besides the fact I love storms/weather - the woman did touch on one of
> the fundamental reasons I love chasing. The hours on the road (I love
> driving though), but being in the middle of nowhere, out in the country,
> just driving or sitting beside the road doing nothing...you're always in
> a new surrounding environment, and it's the perfect opportunity to
> reflect back on things in your life, think about any problems, think
> about any dreams or aspirations - even try and solve the world's
> problems :-) It's just truly bliss sitting beside the roadside,
> smelling the farming hay nearby from a light, humid N'ly in the 30C
> temperatures. It just really is so relaxing, and it adds a marked
> contrast to the somewhat high-paced action that (hopefully!) happens
> after! It really is like a type of adventure, you don't really know
> what's going to happen, and you don't really know where you're going to
> end up (although you have an idea).
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 21:32:11 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Small Reflection on Chasing
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Hi Michael,
(This is off-topic somewhat, I apologise)
Michael Thompson wrote:
> The other aspect is learning. I think my 'gut knowledge' ( no wise cracks
> please ) is very good,
Don't worry MT, if weather knowledge and experience was measured by gut
size both you and I would be the world's leading storm chasers,
researches and forecasters! :-)
--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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From: "McDonald"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 22:12:15 +1000
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David Croan and others,
Please note I have just read this email and no
others further down my list so if I'm covering old ground I apologise.
(caution - long email)
Just a few comments regarding David's email
below.
Regarding Australia not having as good a severe
storm set-up as other countries....well I don't know enough about other
countries to comment on this so I'll leave this to those who know.
As for the comment re: storms exhibiting strong low
level rotation - I am a little inclined to agree to the portion of the statement
which suggests we don't see a lot of this in Australia
to a certain extent but I will discuss my reasons for this in the next
statement. As for the comment that we don't get
this strong rotation in the lower levels - I think this comes back to the point
which relates to the lack of strong low level winds. One of the main
features which we lack in Australia is the strong moisture laden low level winds
which help provide that added shear. Yes, the coastal areas get their
NE'lys which bring in the moist air but rarely are they travelling at speeds of
any consequence. To make a comparison to the US, they often get surface
(note the term surface)winds of 25-30knt (if not more) providing food for
their hungry storms. This is generated by the strong low pressure
systems which park themselves over W and NW states, providing
the tight pressure gradient. In Australia (along the E coast to
be more specific), NE'lys would normally be as a result of a trough sitting
inland and usually this will not be deep enough to generate surface flow of more
than 15knts. The few cases in Australia which has seen strong surface
flow has resulted in tornadic supercells along the E seaboard (not necesarrily
the coast). The three examples I refer to are 1st January 1970
(Buladelah), 4th November 1973 (Brisbane) and 29th September 1996 (NSW).
In all three events, a deep surface low was present, promoting the tight
pressure gradient and generating the resultant strong low level winds. I
may one day get around to doing a more in depth study of events such as these
(as I'm sure there are many more examples of these synoptic set-ups) but time is
a limiting factor at the moment.
As for David's comment regarding the fact that the
prime areas of severe storms has been well covered - I disagree with this
statement. I don't beleive that the small number of chasers we have here
in Australia and the large areas considered "prime" have been covered thoroughly
at all. In just the past 12 months there has been many a time where a
handful of the chasers have sat and watched massive cells (pure speculation
based on radar and satellite observations) from their computers and
commented..."geeze I wish I was under that cell" OR "wouldn't it be nice to be
in Murwillumbah right now". Unfortunately, many (if not all) chasers are
restricted to when and where they chase due to work, family and other
committments. The only times when a majority of the storms on the E
seaboard are watched closely is when the Thunder Down Under crew is out and
about. It is this 3 week period when you can (almost) safely say the
chasers are likely, on any given day, to be in the area which would be "prime"
for that day's storms. Yes, there are still times when distance and other
factors (such as floods) can restrict where we chase on these trips and becuase
of this events will be missed. This was the case on the Thunder Down Under
trip in late November 2000. On the 22nd of November, we chased between
Emerald and Alpha (a few hundred km W of Rockhampton) and saw some awesome
storms. On the 23rd we had a dilema as heavy rains earlier in the
month had cut a few roads further W but the trough which had help kick off
the storms from the previous day was expected to retreat inland. With a
strong jet aloft and high dew points (into the mid 20's) so far inland we were
very tempted to head out even further W and chase in the Longreach area with the
chance of some severe storms for the next few days. On the other hand we
had to consider the chance of being stranded in Longreach if more rain was to
further increase water in the already flooded area and also the fact that we may
put ourselves a long way out of the way for the next system which was forecast
to come through in 4 more days in S NSW. Unfortunately, we decided not to
risk being stranded and never headed out towards Longreach, yet on the 24th of
November, the Bureau of Meteorology recieved a report of "large funnel shaped
cloud on the ground" (ie tornado) just 35km SW of Longreach. Now i'm not
saying that we would've seen this - this is not my point. My point is, is
that chasers cannot be everywhere where it is primed for big storms.
Another example of this can be seen by looking at the last 16 months in
Victoria. There have been at least 8 confirmed tornadoes here of which
only 1 was seen by a chaser, yet on all except one of the days when a tornado
was reported, several chasers were out in the field.
At the end of the last Victorian ASWA meeting, I
had a brief chat with Harald Richter about the differences of chasing in
Australia and the US and one thing which has stuck in my mind was the comment
that in Australia, a lot of chasing is based on luck. I cannot emphasise
enough how true I think this is. Given our limited weather data resources
and access to real-time weather information whilst out in the field on top of
the topography and road network in Australia, it is amazing how much luck comes
into play. When you think that the avergae tornado lasts less than 10
minutes, the probability of being in the right place and the right time and
under the right storm is amazingly minute. Given the lack of understanding
in how one storm becomes tornadic over another, it is amazing that chasers
ANYWHERE (whether it be in the US, Germany, Australia or New Zealand or anywhere
else) see tornadoes. How do they do this? They do this by reducing
the luck factor. They look at what limited information they may have and
they position themselves in the area which, given the current understanding of
severe storms, is most likely to have the most severe storms on a particular
day. They also position themselves near/under the biggest or most intense
thunderstorm chaseable in that particular area. Not only this, they
position themselves on the side of the storm which is most likely to produce a
tornado. Immediately they are giving themselves a better chance at seeing
a tornado than someone who is sitting on the wrong side of the dryline/trough
line or someone sitting at home in their loungeroom. The more often they
do this, the more the probablility increases that they will see a tornado.
They have siginifcantly reduced the "luck" factor almost to the extent where IF
the storm does produce a tornado, they will see it. It comes down to the
individual storm. I guess what I am trying to say is that given the
circumstances facing chasers in Australia, I think we are doing an excellent job
in increasing our chances of seeing tornadoes (and other severe weather
associated with thunderstorms). And in the process of doing this, also
increasing the awareness of both the Bureau of Meteorology and the general
public of the frequency of severe storms in Australia, ultimately in the hope
that it will benefit these people (being the public) in the long term.
Enough from me. Terribly sorry if anyone
get's in trouble for falling asleep at the computer.
Regards,
Andrew McDonald.
---- Original Message -----
Sent: Monday, April 30, 2001 12:46
PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near
Junee & Vic Rain
>>The point about supercell research being mostly based on
the US
>>experience
>>is valid. I do personally believe we have a slightly
different
>>animal.
I agree Michael and I suppose this argument could be used anywhere in the
world. I think the US is quite unique in that it seems so ideally located and
geographically configured for 'the' animal. To me Australia is not, and
I'm not sure thatwe have a severe storm 'set -up' any better than South
America or even Africa. I believe we have a less ideal setup than China,
and other parts of Asia (Bangladesh for example).
Based on the efforts of chasers over the last several years, in my view
it is quite telling that no supercells with rapidly rotating wall clouds,
or even the dramatic base structure which is the hallmark of the US storms,
have been caught on video. We get giant hail, we get 100+ mph straight
line winds and monster 18+ km high storms. But we seem to get
very few storms that exhibit strong rotation at the lower levels, something
that I believe will be confirmed over the coming years.
It is still early days as far as Australian chasing goes, but my
suspicion is that the prime areas have been well covered by chasers now. I
know great storms will continue to be caught on video although i think the
tornadoes will continue to be few and far between. In comparison to the
US, I think it is quite obvious that they get more supercells than
Australia and many more tornadic supercells.
Based on my armchair observations over the last few years, a typical
spring period in the US sees instability persisting over much broader areas
than Australia, is more extreme and of course both speed and dierctional
windshear is much better. Still we get our fair share and as a storm chaser
rather than a tornado chaser, I for one am not dissapointed with what we get!
<end>
From: "clyve herbert"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Vorticity WA.
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 22:28:28 +1000
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Hi all.
Some impressive vorticity north of Kalgoorlie tonight, looks like some good
rainfall in that area and embedded storms too.Also a very nice looking low
over the Tasman, interestingly this Tasman Sea low can in part be traced
back to a small wave low that developed along a weakening cold front a few
days ago over Victoria and then moved into the Tasman to be enhanced by some
pre existing vorticity in that area.
regards Clyve Herbert.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "McDonald"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 22:50:26 +1000
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Jimmy and all,
All valid points have been discussed here so far but I'd like to keep this
particular email restricted to just 1 comment made by Jimmy.
Note this email contains some humor as well as a serious aspect.
Quote "Unfortunately, we do not have the "needs" for such research to take
place"
I think the "need" will come from an initial trigger. Unfortunately this
trigger, as we have seen in the past, will have to be a significant event
and in this case it WILL be by a strong tornado (actually....a tornado that
takes several lives) passing through a populated area (most likely a captial
city). There will then be 2 main driving forces behind the push for more
in-depth research and that will be the general public and the insurance
companies (and a 3rd if you include us storm chasers....hehe). It will then
come down to the government (which I hope Anthony Cornelius is the Prime
Minister of Australia by then so he can just give us an open cheque book to
work with) and then we'll all be paid to chase 24/7 for 52 weeks a year (who
needs holidays if you can chase chase chase....).
But you can see what I'm getting at here in that the government will not see
the need for such funds to be given to the BoM until an unfortuante event
takes place.
Regards,
Macca
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 22:47:32 +1000
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Some good points made by Andrew. I particularly
agree with the fact that the only time we serious chase as a group without time
and distance boundaries is on the thunder downunder annual meets.
Last years TDU2K was great, but was the weather pattern
anything unusual. In fact it was pretty settled and marginal on many days. I
cannot wait until TDU chase hits a major system like the ones Andrew describes.
TDU in its years has yet to hit some areas like Gympie and the area, and we all
know that area can go off with tornadoes. I just can't wait until we get to
those areas.
Another point that David mentioned is that most of us chase
just to experience good storms. For me a bust is when I put down serious
kilometres and do not see lightning. Even a pissy pulse storm with 2 bolts and
0.2mm of rain is NOT a bust. I am happy just to get that.
Hail, downbursts, massive gusters make a great chase. A
tornado would be nice, but if that was my sole goal, well I am in the wrong
business.
Michael
From: "McDonald"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 23:10:25 +1000
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Phil, Jimmy and others,
I think you have raised an interesting point here Phil. I have spoken to
people in the past of classifying eastern states thunderstorms into two
completely separate categories (yet as usual there are exceptions to these
and combinations of the two).
The first category being the "coastal storms" where the storms usually breed
on the ranges and then move off the ranges to affect coastal areas. Due to
their proximity to the coast, these storms breed in mositure laden
environments with surface dewpoints consistently hitting 20C and above, yet
surface temperatures in these conditions rarely exceeds 33C. This mositure
will often give these "coastal storms" the low based, HP appearance and in
the case of a funnel forming, you would expect the condensation level to be
at such a point where a significant portion of the funnel is visible (if not
engulfed in rain).
The second category is the "inland storms" where the storms breed W of the
ranges in air which is regularly significantly drier than that of the
coastal areas. Dewpoints in the 12-18C range are far more likely and
surface temperatures are more likely to be in the 35-38C range, giving these
"inland storms" the higher base and in the case of a funnel forming the
higher condensation level would lead to the expectation that the
condensation funnel would be only partly visibile (if at all). I know there
is the factor that high-based storms can have locally lowered LCL's but
given a general situation you would still expect the LCL to be lower in
these conditions than in the circumstances of the "coastal storms"
situation.
Its an interesting question to pose. Perhaps another point to keep an eye
on in future chases/observations.
Regards,
Andrew McDonald
----- Original Message -----
From: Jimmy Deguara
To:
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2001 6:29 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
> Hi Phil,
>
> There certainly is truth in what you say. Most of the tornadoes/possible
> tornadoes have been observed without the so-called typical text book
funnel
> reaching the ground. Good point made but I suppose time will tell what is
> observed in the future.
>
> The time when I stopped to think about what is observed here as compared
to
> the US is when I saw chasers referring to wall clouds that didn't even
look
> like such. I mean i nice circular base rotating either slightly or
rapidly.
> Well, when I observe small prongs in videos, I found myself reflecting
back
> on my photos only to find very similar examples.
>
> An example might come in handy here:
>
> http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/wall01.htm refer to the
> wall cloud pics 3/4 way down the page with Riverstone and Rooty Hill
listed
> on the same storm. If you doubt this, I have seen US examples and these
> were rotating (I think anti-cyclonically but I couldn't be sure) and the
> storm had a very strong updraught.
>
> Also
> http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2000/1204jd12.jpg
now
> this one would not even qualify in most people's book but it rotated
> anti-cyclonically and was maintained for over 20 minutes but obviously was
> never going to do anything.
>
> And this:
>
> http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2000/1208jd04.jpg
>
> Yes it was underneath the main updraught and eventually became this later
on:
>
> http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2000/1208jd14.jpg
>
> Quite interesting.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
> At 04:05 PM 1/05/01 +0930, you wrote:
> >
> >
> >Might I add another factor which might be hiding the number of Australian
> >tornados [along with low population density, low public knowledge of
> >supercells, bad road networks, not to mention any dynamic atmospheric
> >differences] - might there be a difference in the percentage of aussie
> >supercells that produce highly visible, easily verifyable to a member of
> >the lay public, condensation funnels? If for some reason [higher
> >condensation levels, less available moisture etc] a large number of
aussie
> >vorticies were only visible as a short inverted cone at cloudbase, and a
> >debris swirl if they touched down. Hardly your average wedge that people
> >are familiar with on TV - they might not recognise a twister that was
right
> >in front of them for what it was.
> >
> >Might be blowing out of my proverbial, but it was a thought.
> >
> >Phil
> >
> >Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
> >- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
> > "...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..." Noel Coward
> >
> >
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> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
>
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
>
> Web Page with Michael Bath
>
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "clyve herbert"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 23:23:07 +1000
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Hi Michael and all.
Yep I agree, I too can't wait to roam the
Australian country looking for storms on the next national chase,same with me
even a distant anvil makes me very happy especially when its not supposed to be
there. I have always said ..its only a matter of time before we get on the
back end of an F3 and all our dreams will be answered,but if your like me one
wont be enough!. regards Clyve Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2001 10:47
PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near
Junee & Vic Rain
Some good points made by Andrew. I particularly
agree with the fact that the only time we serious chase as a group without
time and distance boundaries is on the thunder downunder annual
meets.
Last years TDU2K was great, but was the weather pattern
anything unusual. In fact it was pretty settled and marginal on many days. I
cannot wait until TDU chase hits a major system like the ones Andrew
describes. TDU in its years has yet to hit some areas like Gympie and the
area, and we all know that area can go off with tornadoes. I just can't
wait until we get to those areas.
Another point that David mentioned is that most of us chase
just to experience good storms. For me a bust is when I put down serious
kilometres and do not see lightning. Even a pissy pulse storm with 2 bolts and
0.2mm of rain is NOT a bust. I am happy just to get that.
Hail, downbursts, massive gusters make a great chase. A
tornado would be nice, but if that was my sole goal, well I am in the wrong
business.
Michael
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Date: Tue, 01 May 2001 23:30:48 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara
Subject: aus-wx: Some funnel pics
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/funnel02.htm
Towards the bottom, kindly donated to us are some funnel pics.
Great to see others getting these funnels and I haven't seen a waterspout.
I have seen pissy dust - devils and NO it's not cause I am too small to see....
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia
e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
Web Page with Michael Bath
Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com
President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 02 May 2001 00:05:13 +0800
From: Mark Dwyer
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: WA Storms 22/04/01 & A very cloase Lighting Strike
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Hi Robert, and All.
Well on closer examination of it there were three green ( will call it a
possible glitch(s) for now ), Yes we seen the one that was further to the left
relative to the other two and the ground. Which could indeed be streamers, but
it could also be interference from the charge build up before and during the
resulting Lightning Strike and it's separate pulses after the main strike. As
on any Digital Camera whether it be a Video Camera, SLR or a normal Compact
Digital Still Camera, they all take the Picture(s) via there CCD's ( Charged
Coupled Device ).
So it's charge may have been interrupted or interfered with by the
proximity to the Lightning Discharge, and the Stepped Leader that came of the
Tree only 8 - 10 Metres to our right and slightly behind us. But in saying
that you would think that these Camera's more so with the real expensive ones
would have adequate Magnetic shielding ect... to help guard against such
Interference.
MJ.
Robert Goler wrote:
> That was absolutely fantastic!!!!!!!!!!!
>
> Also, are there 2 of those streamers coming up from below the camera?
>
> Look at the large movie
>
> http://www.dsw.au.com/videos/042201lg.mpg
>
> and check out frames 198 for the brighter one and 204 for the dimmer one.
> These precede the brightest part of the lightning strike by 3 frames for
> the first one (brightest flash comes in frame 201) while the second comes
> 1 frame before the brightest flash. Also, the second one appears slightly
> more to the left of the first judging by its position relative to the
> ground.
>
> Cheers
>
> --
>
> Robert A. Goler
>
> E-mail Robert.Goler at maths.monash.edu.au
> http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
>
> Department of Mathematics and Statistics
> Monash University
> Clayton, Vic 3800
> Australia
>
> --
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain (long email)
Date: Tue, 1 May 2001 10:37:05 -0700
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Hi Anthony,
I think i misundersttod your initial statment as you were clearly siting
that a large SRH can produce tornadic supercells with small CAPE, so long as
the CAPE is above a certain level. But i interpretted it as a 'proportional
argument' such that, at the extreme, very large SRH with zero CAPE could
produce a tornado - clearly not.
I like the car example! Do you know that Traffic Engineers actually use
fluid dynamic equations is their models - so it's a very accute observation
you made ;)
As a clarity note, when you talk about 'instability' and 'bouyancy' due to
diffluence aloft and convergence zones, i know you realise this is dynamic
modes rather than thermodynamic but for other people reading this message,
it should be noted that these are two different forcings producing a similar
effect.
Cheers, Lyle
----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius"
To:
Sent: Monday, April 30, 2001 10:50 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain (long email)
> Hi Lyle,
>
> Shear in itself can actually create instability. For example, strong
> diffluent or divergent jets actually cause a lower pressure around
> them. This is because more air is leaving the jet then enterting that
> certain area. (An analogy of this is actually something I've observed
> at Withcott on the Warrego Hwy :) Towards Withcott from Toowoomba, the
> speed limit drops from 100 to 60, all the cars converge on each other
> and bunch up as faster cars come from behind and slow down - there's
> always people waiting near Withcott to join the highway, it's harder for
> them here because there's lots of cars enterting. Just on the east side
> if Withcott, the speed limit goes from 60 to 100, the cars first to hit
> the 100 sign accelerate away from the cars behind them - leaving space
> for cars to join the highway. Motto of this, you'll save time in busy
> traffic trying to merge onto the highway on the east side of Withcott
> heading east :-) But it's the same in jets - with more air leaving the
> region then enterting it (by region I mean over a small area of space,
> ie several km/tens of km), this causes a low pressure region and air
> below it moves upward to replace it.
>
> Diffluent jets have a similar effect - just think of lots of cars
> leaving the highway due to lots of exits, and there's a lot more room
> for other cars to join. IE - more air is leaving the area then entering
> it, creating low pressure. So this helps in adding buoyancy to the
> updraft. In high shear situations, low CAPE could prevail - but the
> effects of an upper level trough/low and diffluent/divergent shear in
> the mid-upper levels can assist in "pulling" an updraft (it doesn't
> really pull though). I think high shear situations tend to be stronger
> in winter as the jets are lower, so their impact is felt stronger in the
> lower levels. A strong cold front, or even the convergence zone on the
> coast due to wind friction (less friction on water than land), helps act
> as a forcing mechanism.
>
> AC
>
> Lyle Pakula wrote:
> >
> > Hi Anthony,
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Anthony Cornelius"
> > To:
> > Sent: Saturday, April 28, 2001 9:49 PM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain (long email)
> >
> > > But certainly I can see how it can be applies to some situations when
> > > the shear is "right." I think one of the most interesting
correlations
> > > I've seen is the CAPE and SRH graph, with tornado occurrences plotted
on
> > > it for a certain region. The higher the CAPE (measure of
instability),
> > > the less SRH (measure of speed & directional shear) was needed.
> > > Alternatively, the higher the SRH, the lower the CAPE that was needed.
> > > I believe they also plotted EHI on this as well (which is a
combination
> > > of these two with a scaling factor).
> > >
> >
> > I'm curious about this last statment as high shear generally requires
high
> > CAPE so the sotorms can stand up against them without being decapitated?
> >
> > Cheers, Lyle
> >
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> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 01:19:01 +0100 (BST)
From: Andrew Boskell
Subject: aus-wx: Tassie weather on annual leave.
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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G’day All,
There has basically been no weather in Tassie for 2
weeks. For just over a week, there has been light
winds and almost cloud free skies – well a least along
the NW Coast any way. It looks like the weather is on
annual leave down here. Oh well, it makes for pleasant
days I guess!
=====
Andrew Boskell
"Some people are weather wise, others are otherwise!"
____________________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Get your free at yahoo.co.uk address at http://mail.yahoo.co.uk
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "David Croan"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Wed, 02 May 2001 10:32:49 +1000
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Hi Jonty and all,
Thanks for an excellent post Jonty.
Of course my presumptions might well be borne out of impatience! I know
Australia can produce some very serious severe weather: strong tornadoes in
1989 and strong / violent in 1992. [ I am particularly curious about
November 1992 since F3 and F4 tornadoes where reported in Qld and a monster
of unknown intensity photographed near Adelaide - perhaps these were even
part of the same system? ]. Add to this Sept 1996 - a day when major
tornadoes may have evaded watchful eyes, and clearly we get some very
impressive stuff.
However I have yet to see any Australian system (since the inception of this
list at least) which would 'seem' capable of having that much clout, though
I realise a single tornadic supercell need not be restricted to such obvious
potent large scale weather systems. As a consequence though, I do often
wonder how rare are these storm systems
and their progeny are in Australia?
I do think it is fair to say that the US is considerably 'stormier'
than Australia, both taken as a whole. A casual glance at the historical
lightning data of both countries would seem to indicate this. Following on
from this, I think it is fairly reasonable to assume that, with
generally much more dynamic wind fields, that supercell numbers would,
therefore, be higher in the US. I tend to disagree with those who suggest
that we get supercells in numbers comparable to the USA. Your are quite
right in that my assumption on Australia seeing a lower proportion of
tornadic supercells is nothing more than a guess - there is nothing to
suggest that this is or indeed isn't the case. It really comes down to my
own personal 'gut-feeling' and so has little in the way of any objective
reality.
A few things led me to this gut feeling though. Outside of the tropics,
central eastern Australia, appears to be the most storm active (again
judging from the lightning maps and also more intensive observations over
the last few years). This area I feel can 'cut it' with the eastern US in
terms of severe storm frequency. My feeling is that if it doesn't happen
often here (as the last few seasons would seem to indicate) then it wont be
happening too often elsewhere (Booleroo is an example that it can and does
happen - just not all that often). Since these areas have been well quite
well chased in recent years, and given that the population density is not
all that low in the broad area I am thinking of, I really am suprised that
nothing significant (tornado or
decent rotating wall cloud) has been bagged by this stage. Like the eastern
US, particularly the southern areas, there would seem a relative abundance
of HP supercells - correct me if I am wrong but I have thought that this
'end of the spectrum' tends to develop in high CAPE and 'not ideal' shear
conditions >> less tornadoes, particularly the stronger or longer lived
variety. Again you and some others on the list are much better qualified
than me to draw these conclusions, this is simply based on my own
observations and the limited data available.
All in all it is fascinating subject and kind of frustrating in that it is
limited to much speculation - what really goes on in our backyard. Of course
it is hard to imagine the BoM getting government funding for any reasonable
study, at least, as Macca stated, in the absence of a major tornado
disaster. I suppose our best chance is if the US researchers took an
interest in our supercells in a comparative sense. Our geography /
topography / climate is very different and yet we do still produce these
monster storms year in year out - how frequently with or without tornadoes
is the question.
_________________________________________________________________________
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [202.7.15.135]
From: "Daniel Lester"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tassie weather on annual leave.
Date: Wed, 02 May 2001 12:22:41 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 02 May 2001 02:22:41.0933 (UTC) FILETIME=[C3E8CBD0:01C0D2AE]
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Andrew,
Better get used to it as the pattern is pretty much set to continue until Tuesday next week. Then some showery colder weather should move in to liven things up.
Daniel
>From: Andrew Boskell
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Tassie weather on annual leave.
>Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 01:19:01 +0100 (BST)
>
>
>G’day All,
>
>There has basically been no weather in Tassie for 2
>weeks. For just over a week, there has been light
>winds and almost cloud free skies – well a least along
>the NW Coast any way. It looks like the weather is on
>annual leave down here. Oh well, it makes for pleasant
>days I guess!
>
>
>=====
>Andrew Boskell
>
>"Some people are weather wise, others are otherwise!"
>
>____________________________________________________________
>Do You Yahoo!?
>Get your free at yahoo.co.uk address at http://mail.yahoo.co.uk
>or your free at yahoo.ie address at http://mail.yahoo.ie
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Wed, 02 May 2001 15:02:40 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi David and all,
My feelings also are of that very nature: why hasn't a "major" tornado
struck a populated area of Sydney. Now, I feel that looking into the Bureau
database, you can find accounts of more major tornadic activity. But not
only has it been quiet since in the past few years (Michael Bath and I have
chased since 1993) but I feel based on storm patterns, it has been quiet
for a lot longer with fewer tornadoes being reported in the past 20 years.
Now although the Sydney area which really is a small area when you talk
about tornadic occurrences, I believe that it does not represent the
eastern side and nor do I think it represents the coastline. Well not at
the moment. Other areas north of Sydney even along the coast tend to
observe far more serious storms on a more regular occurrence and thence
would have a higher probability of producing a tornado. Inland is a
different kettle of fish. Even based on surface lifted index patterns to
give an estimate of areas of instability, Sydney has not been able to match
it with other parts of the state. I know the list jumps up and down when it
does occur. (Please note in my arguments I don't consider for my own
preference the waterspout tornadoes as the tornadoes from the supercell
spectrum. I know in a study by Bart Geerts and someone else, they suggest
that tornado frequencies approach some of the tornado alley states here in
Sydney but he included the waterspouts which by definition are called
tornados once on land)
David, I again cannot emphasise strongly enough that we have only touched
the surface in chasing storms the last couple of years. Perhaps we have
done more in this season than the previous and we shall continue to do so.
Surely we have gone right around northern NSW and SE Qld, Victoria and also
Adelaide region and SWA. But because of distances and work commitments as
Andrew has suggested, we have not been able to chase on the days we really
would have liked. And like I said, when someone chases and gets a tornado
of significance, I can tell you that it would represent a significant find.
In other words, getting an F3 here would be like chasing and getting an F5
in the US and just as significant in my books. To me, a storm that produces
an F3 is very significant as I have seen storms producing F5' in the US
with a variety of damage paths varying usually from F3 to F5 along its most
damaging paths.
Anyway, this is one healthy debate with some interesting points of view
coming through. Another point I would like to add is that the US tends to
have particular days when they can record 50 or so tornadoes or lets say
well in the tens. Often these are the days most referred to on websites
with the major tornadoes. So the most significant events tend to be
highlighted in such a way that if one is not careful, it is almost presumed
it was a different day. I know that is not the case with you David and
others but I know when I first started looking through Storm Track, it
certainly gave me that impression until I started to read the dates of the
events. On a similar note, and one event comes to mind which was the 10th
November 1997. I observed a wall cloud whilst on the same day, Paul Yole
observed one and also suggested that somewhere towards the east of
Victoria, a tornado was reported. That day was an outbreak and I believe
the many storms that developed did develop in an ideal situation for severe
storms that were sufficiently isolated that wall clouds would have been
reported from quite a few storms. Now that was a storm system. I have
provided for those of us who don't recall it some satpic examples. Looking
back at it, it is also worth while for those in SA and WA to observe the
satpics. They are listed at:
http://australiasevereweather.com/temp/9711/
Even if you are bored with my rambling on, please look.
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/1997/docs/9711-01.htm here is
my link for the report on the day. You read the report and you would not
think much of it....
I know it is wishful thinking, but I still maintain what we would see if
someone got a bulldozer and opened up a 5km grid road network throughout
the inland and we chased more regularly. I really feel it is a matter of
time so be patient.
Anyway, I have things to do and keep rambling on... Keep this thread going.
Jimmy Deguara
At 10:32 AM 2/05/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi Jonty and all,
>
>Thanks for an excellent post Jonty.
>
>Of course my presumptions might well be borne out of impatience! I know
>Australia can produce some very serious severe weather: strong tornadoes
>in 1989 and strong / violent in 1992. [ I am particularly curious about
>November 1992 since F3 and F4 tornadoes where reported in Qld and a
>monster of unknown intensity photographed near Adelaide - perhaps these
>were even part of the same system? ]. Add to this Sept 1996 - a day when
>major tornadoes may have evaded watchful eyes, and clearly we get some
>very impressive stuff.
>
>However I have yet to see any Australian system (since the inception of
>this list at least) which would 'seem' capable of having that much clout,
>though I realise a single tornadic supercell need not be restricted to
>such obvious potent large scale weather systems. As a consequence though,
>I do often wonder how rare are these storm systems
>and their progeny are in Australia?
>
>I do think it is fair to say that the US is considerably 'stormier'
>than Australia, both taken as a whole. A casual glance at the historical
>lightning data of both countries would seem to indicate this. Following on
>from this, I think it is fairly reasonable to assume that, with
>generally much more dynamic wind fields, that supercell numbers would,
>therefore, be higher in the US. I tend to disagree with those who suggest
>that we get supercells in numbers comparable to the USA. Your are quite
>right in that my assumption on Australia seeing a lower proportion of
>tornadic supercells is nothing more than a guess - there is nothing to
>suggest that this is or indeed isn't the case. It really comes down to my
>own personal 'gut-feeling' and so has little in the way of any objective
>reality.
>
>A few things led me to this gut feeling though. Outside of the tropics,
>central eastern Australia, appears to be the most storm active (again
>judging from the lightning maps and also more intensive observations over
>the last few years). This area I feel can 'cut it' with the eastern US in
>terms of severe storm frequency. My feeling is that if it doesn't happen
>often here (as the last few seasons would seem to indicate) then it wont
>be happening too often elsewhere (Booleroo is an example that it can and
>does happen - just not all that often). Since these areas have been well
>quite well chased in recent years, and given that the population density
>is not all that low in the broad area I am thinking of, I really am
>suprised that nothing significant (tornado or
>decent rotating wall cloud) has been bagged by this stage. Like the
>eastern US, particularly the southern areas, there would seem a relative
>abundance of HP supercells - correct me if I am wrong but I have thought
>that this 'end of the spectrum' tends to develop in high CAPE and 'not
>ideal' shear conditions >> less tornadoes, particularly the stronger or
>longer lived variety. Again you and some others on the list are much
>better qualified than me to draw these conclusions, this is simply based
>on my own observations and the limited data available.
>
>All in all it is fascinating subject and kind of frustrating in that it is
>limited to much speculation - what really goes on in our backyard. Of
>course it is hard to imagine the BoM getting government funding for any
>reasonable study, at least, as Macca stated, in the absence of a major
>tornado disaster. I suppose our best chance is if the US researchers took
>an interest in our supercells in a comparative sense. Our geography /
>topography / climate is very different and yet we do still produce these
>monster storms year in year out - how frequently with or without tornadoes
>is the question.
>
>
>_________________________________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>message.
>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia
e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
Web Page with Michael Bath
Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com
President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 07:44:49 +0100 (BST)
From: Andrew Boskell
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Tassie weather on annual leave.
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Daniel,
Oh well, we could do with some more rain....don't know
about cold though! Lucky I brought a new jumper the
other day. Winter, here we come....
Andrew.
--- Daniel Lester wrote:
Andrew,
Better get used to it as the pattern is
pretty much set to continue until Tuesday next
week. Then some showery colder weather should move in
to liven things up.
Daniel
>From: Andrew Boskell
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: aus-wx: Tassie weather on
annual leave.
>Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 01:19:01 +0100
(BST)
>
>
>G’day All,
>
>There has basically been no weather in
Tassie for 2
>weeks. For just over a week, there has
been light
>winds and almost cloud free skies –
well a least along
>the NW Coast any way. It looks like the
weather is on
>annual leave down here. Oh well, it
makes for pleasant
>days I guess!
>
>
>=====
>Andrew Boskell
>
>"Some people are weather wise, others
are otherwise!"
>
>____________________________________________________________
>Do You Yahoo!?
>Get your free at yahoo.co.uk address at
http://mail.yahoo.co.uk
>or your free at yahoo.ie address at
http://mail.yahoo.ie
>
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> message.
>
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
=====
Andrew Boskell
"Some people are weather wise, others are otherwise!"
____________________________________________________________
Do You Yahoo!?
Get your free at yahoo.co.uk address at http://mail.yahoo.co.uk
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Major upper amplification - What's next ?
Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 16:53:05 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all
Noticed the latest QLD future prog calls for a
'major upper amplification' and showers on late Sunday or by early Monday over
SE QLD.
This has left me hanging in suspense. What is going
to happen ? The surface synoptic chart is a bit weird at the moment
(typically autumn). I just can't see what a 'major upper amplification' will
induce at this stage. Could it be
suggesting the formation of an east coast low ? There is no strong high
pressure area evident to the south that usually occurs when these happen
?
What are your thoughts ? Please share.
Regards
Simon
From: "Simon Clarke"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Blocking 'low' ?
Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 17:02:10 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all
Further to my previous question.
We often talk about 'blocking' high pressure
systems. But is it also possible to consider that such a thing exists as a
'blocking' low ? Take, as an example, the current Tasman Sea low. it
appears to be dominant and steering high pressure cells to its south.
An examination of future MSL charts also suggests
this.
Maybe it's just another way of looking at the same
thing ?
Ta for now.
Simon
From: "The Weather Co."
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Major upper amplification - What's next ?
Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 17:21:13 +1000
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Hi Simon and all
I would imagine that this policy outlook is being formed based
on the EC model. This model certainly does call for a major upper
amplification(ie a sharp upper trough amplifying over eastern Australia over the
weekend). It has sub-550 thicknesses pushing into southern QLD by late Sunday
with a 548 thickness cold pool north of Brisbane on Monday. In response to this
sharp upper level feature, it develops a surface low south of New Caledonia and
drifts it westward and deepens rapidly into Tuesday/Wednesday.
None of the other models I have seen are going for this,
although NGP does suggest a northwestward propagation of an offshoot of the low
currently in the south Tasman Sea. I personally cannot see the EC situation
coming off, and looks very similar to what this particular model was doing in
the winter of 1999 with upper level troughs constantly amplifying strongly in
the east and ECLs forming willy-nilly.
All models would suggest some intensification of showers into
early next week with the passage of the upper trough, but whether it is to the
extent EC is going for I am not too convinced. Either way, it should be
interesting to watch over the next few days of relatively "boring"
weather.
Matt Pearce
Date: Wed, 02 May 2001 17:30:49 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Blocking 'low' ?
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Hi Simon,
I was always under the impression that a low causes a blocking high by
blocking the high, which blocks everything else...so a blocking low is
needed before a blocking high would be established...
AC
> Simon Clarke wrote:
>
> Hi all
>
> Further to my previous question.
>
> We often talk about 'blocking' high pressure systems. But is it also
> possible to consider that such a thing exists as a 'blocking' low
> ? Take, as an example, the current Tasman Sea low. it appears to be
> dominant and steering high pressure cells to its south. An examination
> of future MSL charts also suggests this.
>
> Maybe it's just another way of looking at the same thing ?
>
> Ta for now.
>
> Simon
--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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From: "Simon Clarke"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Blocking 'low' ?
Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 18:29:41 +1000
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Anthony
So, I guess the low starts the blocking.
Not sure if the current low is an classical example though.
Still I think there is an interestring weather pattern (in a synoptic sense)
developing over the next few days (as per Weather Co. reply).
Thanks
Simon
----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius"
To:
Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2001 5:30 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Blocking 'low' ?
> Hi Simon,
>
> I was always under the impression that a low causes a blocking high by
> blocking the high, which blocks everything else...so a blocking low is
> needed before a blocking high would be established...
>
> AC
>
> > Simon Clarke wrote:
> >
> > Hi all
> >
> > Further to my previous question.
> >
> > We often talk about 'blocking' high pressure systems. But is it also
> > possible to consider that such a thing exists as a 'blocking' low
> > ? Take, as an example, the current Tasman Sea low. it appears to be
> > dominant and steering high pressure cells to its south. An examination
> > of future MSL charts also suggests this.
> >
> > Maybe it's just another way of looking at the same thing ?
> >
> > Ta for now.
> >
> > Simon
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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Date: Wed, 02 May 2001 18:40:41 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
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Hi David,
One of the points you raised was one of the angles I was coming at in
regards to the type of supercells we get here in Australia. They tend
to be orientated more towards HP (typical of high CAPE, low shear
situations). In the US, a warm dry layer exists at around 850mb, and
that rarely happens here - normally it's moist, and not much warmer.
Sometimes it does exist, but rarely when there is an upper level trough
above it. Rather, we get what I call high CAPe days (cap and CAPE),
often combining with a strong upper level ridge, that crushes the hope
of the mightiest of the Cu Hu (or even at times CJ's) of ever getting
started in such an environment.
I agree that HP cells tend to produce less tornadoes than classics, I
think a study has been conducted on this before in the US? One of the
main reasons being that the precipitation and outflow of the storm tends
to frequently get caught up in the mesocyclone, suffocating it. HP
supercells also though make it much harder for people to see tornadoes,
as they seem to frequently be rain wrapped! The other thing I find
interesting is the term "cyclical supercell" - which I have often
wondered exactly what it means. But I've assumed it to be a supercell
that continually cycles through stronger and weaker mesocyclonic phases,
during each phase producing another tornado. If this was the case, you
would also expect that HP supercells would be less likely to exhibit
this type of pattern.
The other thing, is I believe what a lot of people in Australia often
scoff at (the "cold air tornado"), actually occurs in the US a fair bit
during winter/early spring - and are classified as "proper"
supercellular tornadoes. Many people don't chase on these days as the
storms move too fast (I think in March a tornado was moving at 90-100mph
in the US!?) A lot of "cold air tornadoes" would move very swiftly too.
To briefly swap over and reply to Jimmy's email - I agree that the
weather over the past 20 or so years has certainly appeared to be more
tame than say in the 1920's and 30's! It's difficult to tell though,
but I would argue that the storm reports in the 20's and 30's are more
detailed, and more actually exist than in the 90's and 00's! (For QLD
anyway). I remember typing up some severe t'storm records, and the
reports were phenomenal...cars bonnets being peirced by hail, hail
drifts that froze cattle to death in summer (some up to 6ft deep!)
There are other reports of houses and farms being completely
destroyed...one referred to one half of the street being undamaged, and
the other half a street difficult to tell farmhouses had existed there!
Certainly some interesting stuff. Australia's most expensive tornado
was the Brisbane Nov '73 tornado...and it brings up another issue. In
the US, tornadoes are rated by the highest single damage they do to a
house. In Australia, they tend to be averaged out. The '73 tornado was
rated an F2 - but I think it's commonly believed an F3 rating is more
appropriate (and I have heard rumours that the BoM would reclassify this
as an F3?) Yet interestingly, F4 damage was also reported from this
tornado!
I think that again it comes down to population density...rarely does a
major tornado ever hit a major city in the US, and given that there are
even less major cities in Australia - the probability would be even
less. In the 30's (I think...) there is a report of a tornado that went
through south Brisbane for 30 minutes, and it "destroyed houses," so
this is also interesting.
It really is a great subject! I've been enjoying this thread immensely,
impatiently waiting for some one else to write about it :-) As DC has
said - it's subject to a lot of speculation due to the large data gaps
that are present when you compare the two areas.
AC
David Croan wrote:
>
> Hi Jonty and all,
>
> Thanks for an excellent post Jonty.
>
> Of course my presumptions might well be borne out of impatience! I know
> Australia can produce some very serious severe weather: strong tornadoes in
> 1989 and strong / violent in 1992. [ I am particularly curious about
> November 1992 since F3 and F4 tornadoes where reported in Qld and a monster
> of unknown intensity photographed near Adelaide - perhaps these were even
> part of the same system? ]. Add to this Sept 1996 - a day when major
> tornadoes may have evaded watchful eyes, and clearly we get some very
> impressive stuff.
>
> However I have yet to see any Australian system (since the inception of this
> list at least) which would 'seem' capable of having that much clout, though
> I realise a single tornadic supercell need not be restricted to such obvious
> potent large scale weather systems. As a consequence though, I do often
> wonder how rare are these storm systems
> and their progeny are in Australia?
>
> I do think it is fair to say that the US is considerably 'stormier'
> than Australia, both taken as a whole. A casual glance at the historical
> lightning data of both countries would seem to indicate this. Following on
> from this, I think it is fairly reasonable to assume that, with
> generally much more dynamic wind fields, that supercell numbers would,
> therefore, be higher in the US. I tend to disagree with those who suggest
> that we get supercells in numbers comparable to the USA. Your are quite
> right in that my assumption on Australia seeing a lower proportion of
> tornadic supercells is nothing more than a guess - there is nothing to
> suggest that this is or indeed isn't the case. It really comes down to my
> own personal 'gut-feeling' and so has little in the way of any objective
> reality.
>
> A few things led me to this gut feeling though. Outside of the tropics,
> central eastern Australia, appears to be the most storm active (again
> judging from the lightning maps and also more intensive observations over
> the last few years). This area I feel can 'cut it' with the eastern US in
> terms of severe storm frequency. My feeling is that if it doesn't happen
> often here (as the last few seasons would seem to indicate) then it wont be
> happening too often elsewhere (Booleroo is an example that it can and does
> happen - just not all that often). Since these areas have been well quite
> well chased in recent years, and given that the population density is not
> all that low in the broad area I am thinking of, I really am suprised that
> nothing significant (tornado or
> decent rotating wall cloud) has been bagged by this stage. Like the eastern
> US, particularly the southern areas, there would seem a relative abundance
> of HP supercells - correct me if I am wrong but I have thought that this
> 'end of the spectrum' tends to develop in high CAPE and 'not ideal' shear
> conditions >> less tornadoes, particularly the stronger or longer lived
> variety. Again you and some others on the list are much better qualified
> than me to draw these conclusions, this is simply based on my own
> observations and the limited data available.
>
> All in all it is fascinating subject and kind of frustrating in that it is
> limited to much speculation - what really goes on in our backyard. Of course
> it is hard to imagine the BoM getting government funding for any reasonable
> study, at least, as Macca stated, in the absence of a major tornado
> disaster. I suppose our best chance is if the US researchers took an
> interest in our supercells in a comparative sense. Our geography /
> topography / climate is very different and yet we do still produce these
> monster storms year in year out - how frequently with or without tornadoes
> is the question.
>
> _________________________________________________________________________
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>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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Date: Wed, 02 May 2001 19:45:38 +1000
From: Matt Smith
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
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Hi David
I could not help but reply to this comment in your email
" I really am suprised that nothing significant (tornado or decent rotating
wall cloud) has been bagged by this stage."
I have to disagree.... and below is a list of examples which i think prove this
:
Banana wall cloud (Banana was the closest township that would have been
demolished had a tornado formed, and is in QLD) bagged by TDU chasers last year,
of which all who attended would have photos.
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/Matt/2000/tdu-11-21-00-09.htm
This wall cloud and funnel reached over 1/2 way to the ground, no time to stop
and see what was really happening, and also tree's were a big problem and we
could not see the ground underneath, also on TDU last year.
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/Matt/2000/tdu-11-20-00-05.htm
This speaks for itself Nov3 last year.
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/pictures/Matt/2000/11-03-00-11.htm
That is just from flicking through my website, im sure ASW/MSC/BSCH have plenty
of similar photogrophs from recent times, and looking on these sites, there are
countless photos of massive distant storms that were unchasable because of
roads/terrain, or because people were not able to chase, only take a photo from
their home or whatever, and you just know something is going on in and under
these storms... eg :
http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/1996/0205mb02.jpg
http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/1993/1226jd07.jpg
http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2000/1207jd04.jpg
http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2000/1104jd33.jpg
http://www.australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/2000/1104jd25.jpg
that is just from a quick flick through ASW.
And the wall cloud on the front of Storm News issue 4 is one of the best I have
seen for Australia, always drool at it when i look !
I also do not think we get as much as america, but its not a competition. Based
on what HAS been reported in NSW/QLD (with regards to significant damage) alone
in Bureau databases and what not, and considering the area and population size
of each state, I think that we do get our fair share of superell thunderstorms.
And I bet a lot is not reported because 99% of people go inside once a storm
hits and dont see a thing. Take that fact with the low population out of the
citys, well I dont need to say anymore cause people have heard this all before
:)
The next couple of years will be very interesting, and after time it will pay
off for the people that are out in the field making the effort... it comes down
to the old saying "you wont see anything sitting at home".
Matthew Smith
David Croan wrote:
> Hi Jonty and all,
>
> Thanks for an excellent post Jonty.
>
> Of course my presumptions might well be borne out of impatience! I know
> Australia can produce some very serious severe weather: strong tornadoes in
> 1989 and strong / violent in 1992. [ I am particularly curious about
> November 1992 since F3 and F4 tornadoes where reported in Qld and a monster
> of unknown intensity photographed near Adelaide - perhaps these were even
> part of the same system? ]. Add to this Sept 1996 - a day when major
> tornadoes may have evaded watchful eyes, and clearly we get some very
> impressive stuff.
>
> However I have yet to see any Australian system (since the inception of this
> list at least) which would 'seem' capable of having that much clout, though
> I realise a single tornadic supercell need not be restricted to such obvious
> potent large scale weather systems. As a consequence though, I do often
> wonder how rare are these storm systems
> and their progeny are in Australia?
>
> I do think it is fair to say that the US is considerably 'stormier'
> than Australia, both taken as a whole. A casual glance at the historical
> lightning data of both countries would seem to indicate this. Following on
> from this, I think it is fairly reasonable to assume that, with
> generally much more dynamic wind fields, that supercell numbers would,
> therefore, be higher in the US. I tend to disagree with those who suggest
> that we get supercells in numbers comparable to the USA. Your are quite
> right in that my assumption on Australia seeing a lower proportion of
> tornadic supercells is nothing more than a guess - there is nothing to
> suggest that this is or indeed isn't the case. It really comes down to my
> own personal 'gut-feeling' and so has little in the way of any objective
> reality.
>
> A few things led me to this gut feeling though. Outside of the tropics,
> central eastern Australia, appears to be the most storm active (again
> judging from the lightning maps and also more intensive observations over
> the last few years). This area I feel can 'cut it' with the eastern US in
> terms of severe storm frequency. My feeling is that if it doesn't happen
> often here (as the last few seasons would seem to indicate) then it wont be
> happening too often elsewhere (Booleroo is an example that it can and does
> happen - just not all that often). Since these areas have been well quite
> well chased in recent years, and given that the population density is not
> all that low in the broad area I am thinking of, I really am suprised that
> nothing significant (tornado or
> decent rotating wall cloud) has been bagged by this stage. Like the eastern
> US, particularly the southern areas, there would seem a relative abundance
> of HP supercells - correct me if I am wrong but I have thought that this
> 'end of the spectrum' tends to develop in high CAPE and 'not ideal' shear
> conditions >> less tornadoes, particularly the stronger or longer lived
> variety. Again you and some others on the list are much better qualified
> than me to draw these conclusions, this is simply based on my own
> observations and the limited data available.
>
> All in all it is fascinating subject and kind of frustrating in that it is
> limited to much speculation - what really goes on in our backyard. Of course
> it is hard to imagine the BoM getting government funding for any reasonable
> study, at least, as Macca stated, in the absence of a major tornado
> disaster. I suppose our best chance is if the US researchers took an
> interest in our supercells in a comparative sense. Our geography /
> topography / climate is very different and yet we do still produce these
> monster storms year in year out - how frequently with or without tornadoes
> is the question.
>
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Wed, 2 May 2001 10:27:08 -0700
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Hi,
Just a quick note on the point 'Sydney should ahve been hit by now', a
recent speaker here showed a diagram of the return interval for torndaos in
the US - the shortest interval for any one spot was 2000 years - that's no
typo. I'm not sure what grid size they were analysing on but it must have
been small. Either way, it gives an indication on how infrequent it is for a
tornado to strike the sample place twice in any human scale length of time.
I think to presume Australia gets any where near the number of events as the
US would be foolish, regardless of any point of 'population density' or
'doppler radar' arguments. We simply don't have the georgraphic setup to
produce those frequent high CAPE days, which, as Anothony was noting in
another post, can make up for a lack of any dynamic effects. Hence, I agree
with Jimmy's quote that an "F3 (oz) is as significant as an F5 (US)".
But if you are tornado starved, with so many landfalling cyclones in Aus
(relativly recently), i think that would be a prime spot to look for
tornado's but stick to radar chasing only :)
Cheers, Lyle
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Thu, 03 May 2001 08:49:49 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath
Subject: aus-wx: Re: Funnel and Supercell Discussion
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
At 19:45 02/05/2001 +1000, you wrote:
>And the wall cloud on the front of Storm News issue 4 is one of the best I
>have
>seen for Australia, always drool at it when i look !
If you are wondering what Matt is referring to, the first three photos on
this page illustrate:
http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/recd03.htm
This storm on 16/12/95 had gusts around 50 knots and hail to 5cm was
reported in Lismore.
Also I have archived this important supercell discussion from
aussie-weather which was kicked off by the Junee funnel observed by Robert
Goler. I am learning so much from the discussion, it would be a waste for
all this knowledge not be saved.
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2001/docs/200105-01.htm
regards, Michael
=============================================================
Michael Bath mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
McLeans Ridges http://australiasevereweather.com/
NE NSW Australia http://www.lightningphotography.com/
ASWA Secretary http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
=============================================================
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.29.156.4]
From: "T Middleton"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Vic April rain event
Date: Thu, 03 May 2001 00:47:38
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 May 2001 00:47:38.0608 (UTC) FILETIME=[A6E03700:01C0D36A]
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hello all,
Blair or Laurier in particular may be most likely to help me,any is
contribution would be welcomed though.
has anyone got rainfall totals/data for the April 20-25 Victorian rainfall
event?In particular i am chasing totals/data for the SE Strzelecki ranges
(Balook,Mt.Tassie etc)although Otway figures would be of interest too.I know
Balook had 395mm from 9am Saturday (21.4.2001) to 7pm Monday (23.4.2001)but
it is to my knowledge that moderate-significant rain began falling on the
night of Friday the 20th in the SE Strzelecki ranges and there was also some
rain here/there on Tuesday the 24th.
any contributions please reply to anvil_industries at hotmail.com
thanks
T.Middleton
http://www.crosswinds.net/~anvils/
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Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 02:05:56 +0100 (BST)
From: Andrew Boskell
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Blocking 'low' ?
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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G'day Guy's,
This sounds a bit like the "chicken or the egg" stuff
to me!
May be it's best just to call it a "blocking system"?
Andrew.
--- Simon Clarke wrote: >
Anthony
>
> So, I guess the low starts the blocking.
>
> Not sure if the current low is an classical example
> though.
>
> Still I think there is an interestring weather
> pattern (in a synoptic sense)
> developing over the next few days (as per Weather
> Co. reply).
>
> Thanks
> Simon
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Anthony Cornelius"
> To:
> Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2001 5:30 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Blocking 'low' ?
>
>
> > Hi Simon,
> >
> > I was always under the impression that a low
> causes a blocking high by
> > blocking the high, which blocks everything
> else...so a blocking low is
> > needed before a blocking high would be
> established...
> >
> > AC
> >
> > > Simon Clarke wrote:
> > >
> > > Hi all
> > >
> > > Further to my previous question.
> > >
> > > We often talk about 'blocking' high pressure
> systems. But is it also
> > > possible to consider that such a thing exists as
> a 'blocking' low
> > > ? Take, as an example, the current Tasman Sea
> low. it appears to be
> > > dominant and steering high pressure cells to its
> south. An examination
> > > of future MSL charts also suggests this.
> > >
> > > Maybe it's just another way of looking at the
> same thing ?
> > >
> > > Ta for now.
> > >
> > > Simon
> >
> > --
> > Anthony Cornelius
> > Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> > Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> > (07) 3390 4812
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >
>
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"Some people are weather wise, others are otherwise!"
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From: Blair Trewin
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Vic April rain event
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 11:19:30 +1000 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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>
> hello all,
> Blair or Laurier in particular may be most likely to help me,any is
> contribution would be welcomed though.
> has anyone got rainfall totals/data for the April 20-25 Victorian rainfall
> event?In particular i am chasing totals/data for the SE Strzelecki ranges
> (Balook,Mt.Tassie etc)although Otway figures would be of interest too.I know
> Balook had 395mm from 9am Saturday (21.4.2001) to 7pm Monday (23.4.2001)but
> it is to my knowledge that moderate-significant rain began falling on the
> night of Friday the 20th in the SE Strzelecki ranges and there was also some
> rain here/there on Tuesday the 24th.
> any contributions please reply to anvil_industries at hotmail.com
> thanks
>
I plan to do a more significant review of this event once the monthly
postal rainfall returns are in, as a few critical stations only report
by post. This will probably be another week or two.
Blair
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Geelong Weather Services"
To:
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Vic April rain event
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 11:18:36 +1000
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Hi Tony, A fairly full account for the Geelong-Otways region together with
stats is on:
http://users.pipeline.com.au/gws
and click on Weather Archives, then April 2001.
Regards, Lindsay Smail.
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of T Middleton
Sent: Thursday, 3 May 2001 12:48 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Vic April rain event
hello all,
Blair or Laurier in particular may be most likely to help me,any is
contribution would be welcomed though.
has anyone got rainfall totals/data for the April 20-25 Victorian rainfall
event?In particular i am chasing totals/data for the SE Strzelecki ranges
(Balook,Mt.Tassie etc)although Otway figures would be of interest too.I know
Balook had 395mm from 9am Saturday (21.4.2001) to 7pm Monday (23.4.2001)but
it is to my knowledge that moderate-significant rain began falling on the
night of Friday the 20th in the SE Strzelecki ranges and there was also some
rain here/there on Tuesday the 24th.
any contributions please reply to anvil_industries at hotmail.com
thanks
T.Middleton
http://www.crosswinds.net/~anvils/
_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Chris Nitso"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Late season Low/cyclone maybe?
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 13:16:14 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
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Hi all
It appears as though a late season low has developed North Of the Northern
Territory (Arafura Sea) and moving West.
Anyone know what sort of development potential is given?
The cloud cluster associated with it is quite impressive.
Cheers: Chris Nitso
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge"
To:
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 13:27:45 +1000
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Hi All,
Just to add another thought to this popular thread, and it is a subject I
have previously mentioned on this list in the past.
There is some debate as to whether the coriolis force plays a part in
inducing or maintaining rotation in a mesocyclone system. If so (and it IS
very debateable), then in the Southern hemisphere you would expect the
coriolis force to act on rotation such as to weaken a northward moving
storm, and to strengthen a southward moving storm (for the same reason that
a cyclone cannnot cross the equator).
It is a singular fact that by far the vast majority of US tornado tracks run
in parallel from SW to NE, no matter what latitude throughout the entire US.
Therefore it can safely be assumed that the parent supercells are also
moving SW to NE. Thus, while there are no doubt a great many supercell
thunderstorms in the US, it appears that only those on a SW to NE track
generally produce tornadoes, with only a very few exceptions.
Inverting this to the Southern Hemisphere, you would perhaps expect then a
similar situation would prevail, i.e., a requirement for tornadic supercells
to be on a NW to SE track. While I have seen a great many supercell
thunderstorms in Australia, very few have been on this track, with most
storms being on a SW to NE track, i.e., perpendicular to the preferred
direction. And some almost a S to N track (Sydney hailstorm for example,
and Gold Coast storms just last week - using the Coriolis theory, none of
these storms had much chance of producing a tornado).
But... maybe the coriolis force has sweet FA to do with it, and it is all a
question of prevailing winds, shear, helicity aloft, CAPE, etc.. In which
case it just so happens that the circumstances which give rise to tornadic
supercells in the US also happens to be the same circumstances which move
those storms SW to NE.
And perhaps latitude does have something to do with it, with storm movement
tending to prefer a clockwise shift in directional vector as you move South
in the Southern hemisphere (along with frontal boundaries of winter time
lows). With the majority of Australia lying further equatorward than most
of the US, that "might" explain the preferred storm direction. (But lets
not get confused with frontal storms and associated 'coldies', lets stick to
Supercells).
Whatever, I have always treated a severe storm moving on a NW to SE track
with special caution...
I wonder if there has been any attempt made yet to gather all known tornado
tracks on a single map of Australia. I wonder if the data is even
available, it sure would be an extremely interesting addition to the ASWA
web site.
John.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Mossman"
To:
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Late season Low/cyclone maybe?
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 13:20:32 +0930
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Good call Chris - as there are no Outlooks issued now (being out of season)
I have just emailed the BOM Darwin for a call re: this low. Will forward the
email, if relevant, to the list.
The Geostationary rain based satpics show an impressive 24hr accumulation
(over 180mm) so there is obviously some significant convection wrapped
inside this Low.
It is overcast here this morning with a storm located off the NW Coast
streaming its anvil south. With an onshore sea breeze kicking in at 1oam -
this seems to be the predominate wind - I really wonder where this system
will go (if it survives).
Rgds, Paul.
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Chris Nitso
Sent: Thursday, May 03, 2001 12:46 PM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Late season Low/cyclone maybe?
Hi all
It appears as though a late season low has developed North Of the Northern
Territory (Arafura Sea) and moving West.
Anyone know what sort of development potential is given?
The cloud cluster associated with it is quite impressive.
Cheers: Chris Nitso
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill"
To:
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Vic April rain event
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 13:42:45 +1000
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Tony,
The 7 day totals for that period for all of Victoria are linked at the
bottom a page full of images & info regarding that event of
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/0422rain.htm specifically at
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/7dayrain.htm
PS: page takes a while to load - there are thumbnails of 70 various images.
Jane
---------------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
---------------------------------------
Hi Tony, A fairly full account for the Geelong-Otways region together with
stats is on:
http://users.pipeline.com.au/gws
and click on Weather Archives, then April 2001.
Regards, Lindsay Smail.
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of T Middleton
Sent: Thursday, 3 May 2001 12:48 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Vic April rain event
hello all,
Blair or Laurier in particular may be most likely to help me,any is
contribution would be welcomed though.
has anyone got rainfall totals/data for the April 20-25 Victorian rainfall
event?In particular i am chasing totals/data for the SE Strzelecki ranges
(Balook,Mt.Tassie etc)although Otway figures would be of interest too.I know
Balook had 395mm from 9am Saturday (21.4.2001) to 7pm Monday (23.4.2001)but
it is to my knowledge that moderate-significant rain began falling on the
night of Friday the 20th in the SE Strzelecki ranges and there was also some
rain here/there on Tuesday the 24th.
any contributions please reply to anvil_industries at hotmail.com
thanks
T.Middleton
http://www.crosswinds.net/~anvils/
_________________________________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
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From: "W.A. (Bill) Webb"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Late season Low/cyclone maybe?
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 14:39:46 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
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Hi Chris,
JTWC have picked it up. Clipped message below.
Bill.
----- Original Message -----
From: Chris Nitso
To:
Sent: Thursday, May 03, 2001 1:16 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Late season Low/cyclone maybe?
> Hi all
>
> It appears as though a late season low has developed North Of the Northern
> Territory (Arafura Sea) and moving West.
>
> Anyone know what sort of development potential is given?
>
> The cloud cluster associated with it is quite impressive.
>
> Cheers: Chris Nitso
>
TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 030000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUE/030000Z/031800Z MAY 01//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021121Z MAY 01//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION, WHICH HAS PERSISTED DURING THE PAST
6 HOURS, IS LOCATED NEAR 6.7S3 132.4E0 OVER THE ARAFURA SEA. IN-
FRARED ANIMATION AND SYNOPTIC DATA DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER A MONSOON TROUGH. 200 MB ANAL REVEALS A SUB-EQUATORIAL RIDGE,
SITUATED OVER THE REGION, IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. THE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH MAY BE STRONGER (22 TO 28
KNOTS). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED PARA. 2.B.(1) POOR AREA.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/BALDINGER/HARRISON//
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 03 May 2001 16:13:01 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi John,
Just briefly - I remember James telling me/suggesting this to me a few
years ago when we first met...anyway, it is perhaps interesting that the
Nov '73 tornado in Brisbane moved NW to SE...but this is just one event
(but the first one that called to mind of significance.)
Also - coriolis wouldn't have much directly to do with vorticity through
potential vorticity...as it's normally considered a constant across a
given latitude. But I believe there is an element of coriolis that
still exists, just the magnitude of question (ie, in theory coriolis
should apply to all of the atmosphere, but it would have a less
noticable effect on smaller distances, perhaps negligible, perhaps
not). Interesting none the less :)
AC
John Woodbridge wrote:
>
> Hi All,
>
> Just to add another thought to this popular thread, and it is a subject I
> have previously mentioned on this list in the past.
>
> There is some debate as to whether the coriolis force plays a part in
> inducing or maintaining rotation in a mesocyclone system. If so (and it IS
> very debateable), then in the Southern hemisphere you would expect the
> coriolis force to act on rotation such as to weaken a northward moving
> storm, and to strengthen a southward moving storm (for the same reason that
> a cyclone cannnot cross the equator).
>
> It is a singular fact that by far the vast majority of US tornado tracks run
> in parallel from SW to NE, no matter what latitude throughout the entire US.
> Therefore it can safely be assumed that the parent supercells are also
> moving SW to NE. Thus, while there are no doubt a great many supercell
> thunderstorms in the US, it appears that only those on a SW to NE track
> generally produce tornadoes, with only a very few exceptions.
>
> Inverting this to the Southern Hemisphere, you would perhaps expect then a
> similar situation would prevail, i.e., a requirement for tornadic supercells
> to be on a NW to SE track. While I have seen a great many supercell
> thunderstorms in Australia, very few have been on this track, with most
> storms being on a SW to NE track, i.e., perpendicular to the preferred
> direction. And some almost a S to N track (Sydney hailstorm for example,
> and Gold Coast storms just last week - using the Coriolis theory, none of
> these storms had much chance of producing a tornado).
>
> But... maybe the coriolis force has sweet FA to do with it, and it is all a
> question of prevailing winds, shear, helicity aloft, CAPE, etc.. In which
> case it just so happens that the circumstances which give rise to tornadic
> supercells in the US also happens to be the same circumstances which move
> those storms SW to NE.
>
> And perhaps latitude does have something to do with it, with storm movement
> tending to prefer a clockwise shift in directional vector as you move South
> in the Southern hemisphere (along with frontal boundaries of winter time
> lows). With the majority of Australia lying further equatorward than most
> of the US, that "might" explain the preferred storm direction. (But lets
> not get confused with frontal storms and associated 'coldies', lets stick to
> Supercells).
>
> Whatever, I have always treated a severe storm moving on a NW to SE track
> with special caution...
>
> I wonder if there has been any attempt made yet to gather all known tornado
> tracks on a single map of Australia. I wonder if the data is even
> available, it sure would be an extremely interesting addition to the ASWA
> web site.
>
> John.
>
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 03 May 2001 16:22:13 +1000
From: Matt Smith
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi John
I'm just going to reply to this part of your email :
>
> I wonder if there has been any attempt made yet to gather all known tornado
> tracks on a single map of Australia. I wonder if the data is even
> available, it sure would be an extremely interesting addition to the ASWA
> web site.
I hope to do this once I have a significant amount of tornado data in the
tornadic events archive I have built on SSC. Once I feel there is enough to do
such a map, I will do one, which has been the aim all along of this archive, to
eventually plot the places where tornadoes have occured, and tracks if possible,
and see if there are any "hotspots" we do not know about.
The extremely limiting factor is the lack of Australian tornadic reports
publically available. The only place that would have this is obviously the
Bureau, and the odd media report Ben Quinn stumbles across from old channel 7
storm stories.
I will again ask if anyone has any information about tornadic events in
VIC/NSW/QLD to please email me, it would be most appreciated.
Anyway enough from me...
Matthew Smith
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lindsay Pearce"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Darwin - cool min/max records?
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 16:48:28 +1000
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G'day all,
I was thinking about Darwin today and some of their temp records. Does
anyone know of the coolest max Darwin has ever had? And the coolest
minimum? Or some of the cooler max's and min's, anyway.
Just curious, that's all.
Lindsay Pearce
Blackheath, Central Tablelands of NSW
Email: violin at lisp.com.au
Blackheath Weather:
http://www.lisp.com.au/~violin/blackhth.htm
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [198.142.146.49]
From: "Shane Astridge"
To: aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Junee/Wagga funnel/s
Date: Thu, 03 May 2001 17:26:12 +1000
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 03 May 2001 07:26:12.0482 (UTC) FILETIME=[54A7CE20:01C0D3A2]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi list,
It's been an excellent year for storms so far around here (despite
being a bit dry in parts) and to add to it I've just seen my first and
hopefully NOT my last funnel cloud/landspout/tornado, YEY! It lasted about
10 min from 11:45am on the 22nd of April about 8-10km north of Wagga. There
are three photos which turned out fairly well considering the camera used
and Michael Thompson has been kind enough to offer to put them on his site.
They were taken from about 5km away (it's hard to say exactly how far).
I couldn't see if it touched down or not as it was behind a hill and there
was no thunder at the time and very little rain. The cloud did however, soon
after the funnel and wall cloud dissipated, turn into a thunderstorm over
Wagga with heavy showers (anywhere between 15 minutes and 30 minutes later).
I remember seeing a documentary called 'Eye of the Storm'
where a chaser is filming impressive updrafts associated with a tornadic
supercell and he says something like, 'This is what video is for', referring
to the ability of a video camera to catch motion. It would be nice to have
had one in this instance. Not that I'm complaining =]
Regards Shane
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 03 May 2001 17:26:48 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Major upper amplification - What's next ?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
G'Day Simon,
The BoM are now going for showers/storms in Brisbane on Sunday (max 24),
and cloudy/showers/storms in Brisbane on Monday (max 21). I think
certainly we will see some sort of amplification of an upper trough - it
depends on the magnitude to exactly what happens. AVN suggests very
cold 500 temps (-18C at 500mb) for Sunday arvo and night over us, and
300mb temps around -43C - very cold for us (although not unusual). The
only thing unusual about this sort of event is that normally we get
those sorts of upper level temps during SW'lies when it's too dry, but
they can occassionally occur with SE'lies. I think one of the main
questions is will it be storms or (thundery) rain? Large masses of
cloud are still present over NSW/Vic/SA - and there looks to be a
further injection of cold air in these places further increasing cloud.
So it may come to us in cloud...but we can only hope it's cloud free!
But rest assured...I have actually planned a lot of study for an
upcomming major exam + some assignments due in soon over this long
weekend...so it's bound to get even more interesting purely for that
reason!
AC
> Simon Clarke wrote:
>
> Hi all
>
> Noticed the latest QLD future prog calls for a 'major upper
> amplification' and showers on late Sunday or by early Monday over SE
> QLD.
>
> This has left me hanging in suspense. What is going to happen ? The
> surface synoptic chart is a bit weird at the moment (typically
> autumn). I just can't see what a 'major upper amplification' will
> induce at this stage. Could it be suggesting the formation of an east
> coast low ? There is no strong high pressure area evident to the south
> that usually occurs when these happen ?
>
> What are your thoughts ? Please share.
>
>
>
>
> Regards
> Simon
>
--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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From: "michael king"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin - cool min/max records?
Date: Thu, 03 May 2001 17:49:02 +1000
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Lindsay et al
Coolest Maximums would definitely be in Jan or Feb under the Monsoon Cloud. I was up there in late Jan. '93 during a 2 week pulse of the monsoon and I distinctly remember one day the max not getting beyond 23 degrees C. The coolest maximum in the dry season I can recall was back in late June, early July '90, which coincided with the the end of an event, when Canberra had about 2 weeks when the max was always below 10 degrees C. From memory at the end of this event (which by the way lead to 1.5 metres of snow in the Brindabellas), Darwin's maximum was about 25 or 26 degrees, with a fortnight's worth of cool air, being pumped up over them.
Anyway Blair would be full bottle on this and probably knows of extremes beyond this in both the wet and dry seasons.
Michael
>From: "Lindsay Pearce"
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To:
>Subject: aus-wx: Darwin - cool min/max records?
>Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 16:48:28 +1000
>
>G'day all,
>
>I was thinking about Darwin today and some of their temp records. Does
>anyone know of the coolest max Darwin has ever had? And the coolest
>minimum? Or some of the cooler max's and min's, anyway.
>
>Just curious, that's all.
>
>Lindsay Pearce
>Blackheath, Central Tablelands of NSW
>Email: violin at lisp.com.au
>Blackheath Weather:
> http://www.lisp.com.au/~violin/blackhth.htm
>
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Date: Thu, 03 May 2001 05:54:47 +1000
From: Don White
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin - cool min/max records?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Lindsay...
The only two days when the temp failed to reached 22 in Darwin was 14
July 1968 whe the top was 21.1 and the 13 July 1968 21.8.
Min temps all occurred in late July 1942 - maybe the bombing of Darwin
effected the weather.
The min was 10.4 on 29/7/1942, 10.6 on 28/7/1942 and 10.8 on 31/7/1942.
The only other < 11 was 10.8 on 20/7/1965
Cheers,
Don White
Lindsay Pearce wrote:
>
> G'day all,
>
> I was thinking about Darwin today and some of their temp records. Does
> anyone know of the coolest max Darwin has ever had? And the coolest
> minimum? Or some of the cooler max's and min's, anyway.
>
> Just curious, that's all.
>
> Lindsay Pearce
> Blackheath, Central Tablelands of NSW
> Email: violin at lisp.com.au
> Blackheath Weather:
> http://www.lisp.com.au/~violin/blackhth.htm
>
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From: "Paul Mossman"
To:
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Darwin - cool min/max records?
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 18:43:45 +0930
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As well, last year a 23 was recorded during the massive snowfall event down
South, which caused very cool dry easterlies to prevail for several days.
All MIN Max temps have been recorded during the dry - btw!
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Don White
Sent: Thursday, May 03, 2001 5:25 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin - cool min/max records?
Lindsay...
The only two days when the temp failed to reached 22 in Darwin was 14
July 1968 whe the top was 21.1 and the 13 July 1968 21.8.
Min temps all occurred in late July 1942 - maybe the bombing of Darwin
effected the weather.
The min was 10.4 on 29/7/1942, 10.6 on 28/7/1942 and 10.8 on 31/7/1942.
The only other < 11 was 10.8 on 20/7/1965
Cheers,
Don White
Lindsay Pearce wrote:
>
> G'day all,
>
> I was thinking about Darwin today and some of their temp records. Does
> anyone know of the coolest max Darwin has ever had? And the coolest
> minimum? Or some of the cooler max's and min's, anyway.
>
> Just curious, that's all.
>
> Lindsay Pearce
> Blackheath, Central Tablelands of NSW
> Email: violin at lisp.com.au
> Blackheath Weather:
> http://www.lisp.com.au/~violin/blackhth.htm
>
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From: "Michael Thompson"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 19:11:03 +1000
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Sydney is a lot of 'spots '
Michael
> Just a quick note on the point 'Sydney should ahve been hit by now', a
> recent speaker here showed a diagram of the return interval for torndaos
in
> the US - the shortest interval for any one spot was 2000 years - that's no
> typo. I'm not sure what grid size they were analysing on but it must have
> been small. Either way, it gives an indication on how infrequent it is for
a
> tornado to strike the sample place twice in any human scale length of
time.
.std.com
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From: "Simon Clarke"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Late season Low/cyclone maybe?
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 19:15:50 +1000
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Chris
This area looks quite good in this pm's sat pics. But I alas I can't see it
developing too much further.
The month of May is traditionally the worst of the year for TC's globally. I
can't see this disturbance will change that statistic at this stage.
Regards
Simon
----- Original Message -----
From: "Chris Nitso"
To:
Sent: Thursday, May 03, 2001 1:16 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Late season Low/cyclone maybe?
> Hi all
>
> It appears as though a late season low has developed North Of the Northern
> Territory (Arafura Sea) and moving West.
>
> Anyone know what sort of development potential is given?
>
> The cloud cluster associated with it is quite impressive.
>
> Cheers: Chris Nitso
>
>
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From: "Michael Thompson"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Marked difference in Rainfall on NSW coast for April
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 19:22:45 +1000
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The April rainfall map for Se Australia from the BOM
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/rainmaps.cgi?page=map&variable=totals&
period=month&area=seaus
shows are massive difference in rainfall from Sydney to around Batemans Bay.
The northern half of Sydney is within the 100-200mm shading, yet head south
to Batemans Bay and you are in 5-10mm area.
My experience for April was that I had only about 30mm here, obviously more
fell in the gauge at Wollongong AWS, which is nearer the escarpment and at
Wollongong itself which tends to be wetter then the Shellharbour area.
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com
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Date: Thu, 03 May 2001 19:36:42 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
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Hi John and all,
>Whatever, I have always treated a severe storm moving on a NW to SE track
>with special caution...
I tend to agree with you on this one. I feel that you should find that the
average of the all the winds forcing a SE movement (or lets say ESE
movement for a left mover) is easier to attract IDEAL lower level wind
shear than systems forced to move NE. I can tell you this summer has had
very little in that regards. I also think this is the reason that 17th
January 2001 did not produce tornadoes as it was well chased. I hoped for
tornadoes and I know it was possible but I did not really hang as much hope
on it. Of course it is easier to say after the event. What I am trying to
say, the excitement for me what have been far greater to see a NW jet and
then NE winds feeding. I feel too many people are always looking for
greatest wind shear possible. But you must be careful. In forecasting, well
I try to model in my mind what is going to happen at the various levels in
the atmosphere (yes based on the models satpics etc) Assuming the models
have been reasonable, you also try and visualise what the storms will do -
create a good flanking line, what would happen if it moves left etc. Mario
can tell you what I mean. What I can say about this season is besides a
couple of days, the lower level winds have not really fallen into line with
what I would say putting a smile on my face. Of course one cannot really
predict what happens but you give it a try.
Having said this, I find it remarkable that people with all their various
techniques are out there and tend to end up in the same areas!!!! Fascinating.
>I wonder if there has been any attempt made yet to gather all known tornado
>tracks on a single map of Australia. I wonder if the data is even
>available, it sure would be an extremely interesting addition to the ASWA
>web site.
>
>John.
>
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-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia
e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
Web Page with Michael Bath
Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com
President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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From: "Simon Clarke"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Blocking weather
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 19:35:57 +1000
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All
I know I mentioned blocking 'lows' previously. And
I know most people are totally bored when these patterns develop, but I think I
will list the following blocking possibilities.
1) Large High pressure cells (1030hpa
plus) that become anchored south east of Australia and steer lows to their
south;
2) Weaker highs that become
anchored south east of Australia with a distinct North-South Stretch, that
also steer lows south;
3) Blocking pairs - High to the south and low to
the north (usually east coast);
4) High SW of Australia and deep lows (winter
normally) to their east (another type of blocking low ?) that often
brings very cold weather to SE Australia; and
5) Omega blocks - High in the middle and two
intense lows both east and west.
Sorry if this bores you all to death, but
unfortunately all types of weather fascinate me.
Any other examples, please add to my
list.
Regards
Simon
From: "McDonald"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 19:49:51 +1000
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Hi all,
In my opinion this is turning into the most interesting thread weve had on
this list for almost years!!! Keep it up.
Now in response to Lyle's email.
Its an interesting point re: the return interval for tornadoes. I know of
several US towns (and I don't mean city sized ones) that have been hit by a
tornado more than once. Of more interest though is the town of Milawa in
North Eastern Victoria (Australia) which has a population of just 270
people. This town has been directly hit by 3 (yes three) tornadoes in the
past 50 years, with the most recent one being on 9th September 2000.
Further to this, the 2nd tornado was reported as having a damage path of 1km
wide (i think it was in the early 70's) and significant damage was done to
the well known Brown Brothers winery which is located on the outskirts of
the town.
A second factor to consider is the historical data of towns in NE NSW, of
which nearly every single town in that area has had at least 1 tornado
reported (time frame and reliability of this report is a little sketchy).
As for the frequency of high CAPE days, I will leave that for someone else
to answer (anthony) unless it hasn't been answered. Then I'll throw in my
two bob's worth on that bit too.
As for tornadoes in landfalling cyclones......well....I've always wanted to
do a TC chase!!!! BRING IT ON I SAY!!!!!!!!!!!!
Regards,
Andrew McDonald
----- Original Message -----
From: Lyle Pakula
To:
Sent: Thursday, May 03, 2001 3:27 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
> Hi,
>
> Just a quick note on the point 'Sydney should ahve been hit by now', a
> recent speaker here showed a diagram of the return interval for torndaos
in
> the US - the shortest interval for any one spot was 2000 years - that's no
> typo. I'm not sure what grid size they were analysing on but it must have
> been small. Either way, it gives an indication on how infrequent it is for
a
> tornado to strike the sample place twice in any human scale length of
time.
>
> I think to presume Australia gets any where near the number of events as
the
> US would be foolish, regardless of any point of 'population density' or
> 'doppler radar' arguments. We simply don't have the georgraphic setup to
> produce those frequent high CAPE days, which, as Anothony was noting in
> another post, can make up for a lack of any dynamic effects. Hence, I
agree
> with Jimmy's quote that an "F3 (oz) is as significant as an F5 (US)".
>
> But if you are tornado starved, with so many landfalling cyclones in Aus
> (relativly recently), i think that would be a prime spot to look for
> tornado's but stick to radar chasing only :)
>
> Cheers, Lyle
>
>
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From: "McDonald"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 20:12:58 +1000
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John and all,
This is a very interesting point. I'm far from an expert on this coriolis
business and will steer clear from it for now. I can just provide some
relevant examples of NW-SE moving severe (tornadic) storms (in Victoria).
The first, most recent event is that of 8th August 2000 where a supercell
tracked SE from Maryborough/Castlemain area and it eventually passed over
Melbourne CBD (in its weakening phase). This storm produced 3 confirmed
tornadoes all with NW-SE tracks. Interesting.....
The second event I have bugger all information on except I think it is one
of the longest tornado tracks in Australian history and I'm pretty sure it
tracked NW - SE as well. It was in South Western Victoria and I think it is
termed the "Casterton" tornado. My memory isn't serving me well this
evening but a figure of 76km is popping in to my mind regarding the track
and F3 rating also pops into mind. I have a feeling the book Cockeyed Bobs
and Willie Willies has information on it and I also think Clyve or Lindsay
Smail may be able to provide some more accurate information on it.
I also have a little feeling that another tornado (which struck the
outskirts of Geelong in the early 90's???) may've also had a NE-SW track.
Again I think the Geelong locals may be able to fill in the large gaps I
have left in this.
This could be something to look in to.
Regards,
Andrew McDonald
----- Original Message -----
From: John Woodbridge
To:
Sent: Thursday, May 03, 2001 1:27 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
> Hi All,
>
> Just to add another thought to this popular thread, and it is a subject I
> have previously mentioned on this list in the past.
>
> There is some debate as to whether the coriolis force plays a part in
> inducing or maintaining rotation in a mesocyclone system. If so (and it
IS
> very debateable), then in the Southern hemisphere you would expect the
> coriolis force to act on rotation such as to weaken a northward moving
> storm, and to strengthen a southward moving storm (for the same reason
that
> a cyclone cannnot cross the equator).
>
> It is a singular fact that by far the vast majority of US tornado tracks
run
> in parallel from SW to NE, no matter what latitude throughout the entire
US.
> Therefore it can safely be assumed that the parent supercells are also
> moving SW to NE. Thus, while there are no doubt a great many supercell
> thunderstorms in the US, it appears that only those on a SW to NE track
> generally produce tornadoes, with only a very few exceptions.
>
> Inverting this to the Southern Hemisphere, you would perhaps expect then a
> similar situation would prevail, i.e., a requirement for tornadic
supercells
> to be on a NW to SE track. While I have seen a great many supercell
> thunderstorms in Australia, very few have been on this track, with most
> storms being on a SW to NE track, i.e., perpendicular to the preferred
> direction. And some almost a S to N track (Sydney hailstorm for example,
> and Gold Coast storms just last week - using the Coriolis theory, none of
> these storms had much chance of producing a tornado).
>
> But... maybe the coriolis force has sweet FA to do with it, and it is all
a
> question of prevailing winds, shear, helicity aloft, CAPE, etc.. In which
> case it just so happens that the circumstances which give rise to tornadic
> supercells in the US also happens to be the same circumstances which move
> those storms SW to NE.
>
> And perhaps latitude does have something to do with it, with storm
movement
> tending to prefer a clockwise shift in directional vector as you move
South
> in the Southern hemisphere (along with frontal boundaries of winter time
> lows). With the majority of Australia lying further equatorward than most
> of the US, that "might" explain the preferred storm direction. (But lets
> not get confused with frontal storms and associated 'coldies', lets stick
to
> Supercells).
>
> Whatever, I have always treated a severe storm moving on a NW to SE track
> with special caution...
>
> I wonder if there has been any attempt made yet to gather all known
tornado
> tracks on a single map of Australia. I wonder if the data is even
> available, it sure would be an extremely interesting addition to the ASWA
> web site.
>
> John.
>
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Date: Thu, 03 May 2001 20:29:04 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
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Hi Macca et al,
Considering the Schofields/Riverstone area, it has had 2 tornadoes in the
database - 1965 in Schofields and 1984 in Schofields/Riverstone that I
experienced though never saw, and I think from what I have heard from 1965
and observed in the 1984 damage, they were pretty significant tornadoes -
say more like F2 (certainly not the pissy F0's - F1's). Now the possible
path width is about 4km for these two suburbs.
Now this is interesting. This area finds it difficult to score direct hits
from severe storms though these significant events. Occasionally, it
surprises me. Riverstone though from experience is more prone to severe
storms overall and that is no exaggeration. The Bureau had tried to argue
against myself and also Don White that there were no scientific reasoning
to support these observations. I was even told once that it was an optical
illusion in my observations.Yerrr right.
>Its an interesting point re: the return interval for tornadoes. I know of
>several US towns (and I don't mean city sized ones) that have been hit by a
>tornado more than once. Of more interest though is the town of Milawa in
>North Eastern Victoria (Australia) which has a population of just 270
>people. This town has been directly hit by 3 (yes three) tornadoes in the
>past 50 years, with the most recent one being on 9th September 2000.
>Further to this, the 2nd tornado was reported as having a damage path of 1km
>wide (i think it was in the early 70's) and significant damage was done to
>the well known Brown Brothers winery which is located on the outskirts of
>the town.
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia
e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
Web Page with Michael Bath
Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com
President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson"
To: "Shane Astridge" ,
Subject: aus-wx: Wagga Funnel cloud pics 22th April 2001
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 21:14:55 +1000
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I have posted Shane's funnel cloud pictures up on a page at
http://ozthunder.com/chase/shane.htm
I think you will all be surprised. They are well worth a look at.
Shane reads this group so you can probably share with the group any replies.
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 03 May 2001 21:52:13 +1000
From: Matt Smith
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Wagga Funnel cloud pics 22th April 2001
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Nice photographs!
Looks like a light precip curtain infront of the funnel, and possibly a dry slot
on the right hand side wrapping around.
Great catch Shane!
Matt Smith
Michael Thompson wrote:
> I have posted Shane's funnel cloud pictures up on a page at
> http://ozthunder.com/chase/shane.htm
>
> I think you will all be surprised. They are well worth a look at.
>
> Shane reads this group so you can probably share with the group any replies.
>
> Michael Thompson
> http://ozthunder.com
>
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From: "Jane ONeill"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 22:11:59 +1000
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Evening Andrew & all,
The Casterton storm of 1st July 1989 spawned a tornado that was rated F3
at one point along its path, with most damage being consistent with an
F2 rating. This main track measured approx 70km & ran NW - SE from just
west of Poolaijelo to near Paschendale (near Casterton which is NE of Mt
Gambier). There appeared to have been more than 1 tornado.
Forcing mechanisms of this storm were (per the BoM preliminary report):
i) the storm was initiated on the leading edge of the upper cold pool
under a marked diffluent pattern with split jet structure.
ii) low level forcing played a role in initiating convection.
A squall line developed with several larger embedded cells in the line.
The line of storms moved east at ~40kmh, whilst individual cells within
the line moved SE at ~60kmh.
The Warragul tornado of 6th April 1994 (Gippsland). This tornado was
also embedded in a squall line & was rated as low F2. The main focus of
this path was from west to east & was ~ 4km.)
The Halls Gap storm of 27th January 1997 (in western Victoria) also
moved southeastwards, dropping cricket ball sized hail & a tornado which
briefly touched down into Lake Fyans.
Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
> The second event I have bugger all information on except I think it is
one
> of the longest tornado tracks in Australian history and I'm pretty
sure it
> tracked NW - SE as well. It was in South Western Victoria and I think
it is
> termed the "Casterton" tornado. My memory isn't serving me well this
> evening but a figure of 76km is popping in to my mind regarding the
track
> and F3 rating also pops into mind. I have a feeling the book Cockeyed
Bobs
> and Willie Willies has information on it and I also think Clyve or
Lindsay
> Smail may be able to provide some more accurate information on it.
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 03 May 2001 22:29:57 +1000
From: Matt Smith
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Hi Everyone
Myself and Matt Pearce were just looking at the models... and they look
very interesting for this weekend. MRF/GASP/NGP are all going for some
sort up strong upper trough (gasp has a low) forming over eastern NSW on
sat/sun/monday.
This cold pool looks very cool (as Anthony has pointed out) and if it
holds it will bring some weather for us all, either a rain event or if
we are lucky a storm or 2. Cloud cover may be the deciding factor. This
system looks good for ok for NSW and QLD at this stage... will be an
interesting one to watch.
Matt Smith
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Angell"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Mr micheal king.
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 23:41:30 +1000
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Hi micheal.
Being new to this mailing list i have very little
idea of where people live.
I am just wondering if you live in canberra (or
anyone else who reads this).
Im looking for information on the Microburst storm
that hit Canberra in feb this year and you live in canberra i would like to hear
your account of the storm..
Simon Angell
simon at winnet.com.au
From: "Lyle Pakula"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 10:24:56 -0700
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Hi John,
----- Original Message -----
From: "John Woodbridge"
To:
Sent: Wednesday, May 02, 2001 8:27 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
> Hi All,
>
> Just to add another thought to this popular thread, and it is a subject I
> have previously mentioned on this list in the past.
>
> There is some debate as to whether the coriolis force plays a part in
> inducing or maintaining rotation in a mesocyclone system. If so (and it
IS
> very debateable), then in the Southern hemisphere you would expect the
> coriolis force to act on rotation such as to weaken a northward moving
> storm, and to strengthen a southward moving storm (for the same reason
that
> a cyclone cannnot cross the equator).
>
I think the generally accepted source of vorticity is the tiliting from the
horizontal to vertical in strong systems, the mechansims of which are
debatable. There is also the notion of surface convergence to 'spin-up' but
this can only account for week circulations - there simply isn't enough
vertical vorticty on the surface to explain the magnitude of the winds that
develop - note that land spouts (can be combintation of both forcings), dust
devils etc are primarily forced by surface convergence - hence their
weekness.
Reveiewing some modelling studies, the effect of CF in simulations is not
that strong but definatly evident - it produces the 'bowing' in squall lines
and can give preference to the right mover but more dynamical forces seem to
be at play.
I guess an interesting analogy is the bath tub. Common misconceptions are
that toilets and bath tubs will circulate in opposite directions in the
different hemispheres but this is not true - sort of. the ciruclation is
*mostly* forced by the geometry but, given a very still bath tub and you
remove the plug without disturbing the water, it will rotate cyclonically.
Why - because it's an unstable equilibrium and the very weak coriollis force
that develops can cause the fluid to veer into the cyclonic direction. This
was done in Labs. However, if you put your finger in and spin up the water
anti-cyclonically, it will merily go that way. Whats my point? That the
intial conditions and boundaries are very important but, left to it's own
devices, the CF can push the balance. Is this why mesocyclones circulate
cyclonically? - hey i'm not going that far, but it's worth thinking about.
Cheers, LYle
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 10:27:12 -0700
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Hi Michael,
like i said, the grid size analysed on was not specified, so they could have
been talking about a 1m^2 grid block (not likely). But a long return
interval does imply rare occurence.
Wichita, Kansas is quite a large city but it's not like they get hit every
year/decade. But their RI is definatly not 2000 years ;)
Cheers, Lyle
----- Original Message -----
From: "Michael Thompson"
To:
Sent: Thursday, May 03, 2001 2:11 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
> Sydney is a lot of 'spots '
>
> Michael
>
>
>
> > Just a quick note on the point 'Sydney should ahve been hit by now', a
> > recent speaker here showed a diagram of the return interval for torndaos
> in
> > the US - the shortest interval for any one spot was 2000 years - that's
no
> > typo. I'm not sure what grid size they were analysing on but it must
have
> > been small. Either way, it gives an indication on how infrequent it is
for
> a
> > tornado to strike the sample place twice in any human scale length of
> time.
> .std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 10:37:18 -0700
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Hi,
Re Tracks:
I must say that over the last year i have learn't a little bit about the
fundamentals of severe storms but have very little working knowledge - i
hope to change that by the end fo this chasing season! But, from what i know
of devlopment in the states, the situations that will produce an outbreak (a
prime chase day) is a negativly tiling trough or just a good jet aloft. That
translates to a mean flow direction that runs SW-NE, hence so do storms and,
thus, their tracks. I imagine this must be similar to Aus.
I really haven't found much literature on Australian tornadic events and,
from here, i think it will be people like Anthony, Jimmy (etc) that will
bring the community upto scratch - I personally look forward to this time ;)
As a side note to Anthony, I was showing a collegue your photo's who was
very impressed. Curious, was that big arcus cloud done with a 17mm?
Cheers, Lyle
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "David Croan"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Thu, 03 May 2001 18:24:00 +1000
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G'day Matt, Anthony and others.
This is a great thread and I have certainly learned alot from all the posts!
When I mean significant I am making a comparison between what I have seen
here (my own eyes or others videos) to what I have seen in the US - of
course this is not really a fair comparison for the number of reasons which
i wont re-iterate. Rest assured I have read every single Australian chase
report that is online and have enjoyed every single one - some amazing
storms have been bagged. Please dont think I am scoffing at the Australian
events. For me it is all about comparison - not competition. It is all part
of the one global puzzle. .
But in my oppinion, the only piece of Australian video which comes close to
the kind of wallcloud 'appearance' I am thinking of, is video by yourself
and Con Bitis of the 3/11/00 Sydney supercell. MT's 03/97 Shelharbour pics
would indicate something similarly impressive - where was your camcorder
Michael :-(. Other than these, relatively few Australian wall clouds have
caught my attention. Jimmy's Oberon and Woolgoolga ones + a few others from
other states look very good although rotation is impossible to make out in
every case. In the US the chaser motto is along the lines "stay on the
southwest side and you'll be fine". In Australia, I believe storm chasing
will almost always be more fruitful if you stay on the NE as opposed to
northwest side of a storm - not for tornadoes but for photogenic shelf
clouds, dark bases, lightning, and of course updrafts.
On the banana wall cloud, to be honest, and as I have told Jimmy, it did not
impress me as a wallcloud. Of course I wasn't there - you guys are the best
judge, but to me rotation was not discernible from video. I have seen many
storms which exhibit 'bouts' of lazy rotation, but that is a far cry from a
storm that means tornado business. If I have to do a double take, and squint
and stare to make out rotation, then I suppose I just didn't find it all
that impressive although in all cases it is interesting (here I am talking
only about such storms I have seen with my own eyes - not judging your
example as I know alot can be lost on video).
>there are
>countless photos of massive distant storms that were unchasable because
> >roads/terrain, or because people were not able to chase, only take a
>photo from their home or whatever, and you just know something is going on
>in and under
>these storms...
That is what I ask myself all the time. But what is different about these
monsters to the ones each of us has been under at some time where nothing
obvious has happened? (I mean nothing in terms of rapid rotation) - I just
wonder why should there be anything going on under these ones?.
>I think that we do get our fair share of superell thunderstorms.
couldn't agree more.
>Take that fact with the low population out of the
>citys, well I dont need to say anymore cause people have heard this all
>before
As an aside, when I was drivng around last year, from western Oklahoma all
the way up to Nebraska and beyond, I came to the conclusion that the
population density in these parts is not all that different to say, SE QLD,
the northern rivers, northwest slopes (near the ranges) or the Hunter.
>The next couple of years will be very interesting, and after time it will
>pay
>off for the people that are out in the field making the effort... it comes
>down
>to the old saying "you wont see anything sitting at home".
>
You are right. If this was 1993 - perhaps we would be considering the fact
that Brisbane storm chasers, five months earlier had bagged some violent
tornadoes near Bucca, and how our SA group got that monster on video (or
would we have missed then all??). But would our perspective of what is
'normal' be distorted then or is it being distorted now by a lack of
tornadic storms. I know that big day will come - again my whole point is how
often??.
cheers, Dave
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 04 May 2001 05:14:22 +0800
From: "Phil Smith"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
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The tornado which demolished the house I was in at Geelong (Vic) in 1946,
travelled in a SE direction as it was seen by the neighbours as
approaching from the NW and did further damage SE of the house. I was
too young to have any recollection of it myself, just relying on my
grandfather's oral reports. I don't have any knowledge of track details
except that it travelled at least 4 km and probably further.
Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
-----Original Message-----
From: "Jane ONeill"
To:
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 22:11:59 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
> Evening Andrew & all,
>
> The Casterton storm of 1st July 1989 spawned a tornado that was rated
> F3
> at one point along its path, with most damage being consistent with an
> F2 rating. This main track measured approx 70km & ran NW - SE from just
> west of Poolaijelo to near Paschendale (near Casterton which is NE of
> Mt
> Gambier). There appeared to have been more than 1 tornado.
>
> Forcing mechanisms of this storm were (per the BoM preliminary report):
> i) the storm was initiated on the leading edge of the upper cold pool
> under a marked diffluent pattern with split jet structure.
> ii) low level forcing played a role in initiating convection.
>
> A squall line developed with several larger embedded cells in the line.
> The line of storms moved east at ~40kmh, whilst individual cells within
> the line moved SE at ~60kmh.
>
> The Warragul tornado of 6th April 1994 (Gippsland). This tornado was
> also embedded in a squall line & was rated as low F2. The main focus of
> this path was from west to east & was ~ 4km.)
>
> The Halls Gap storm of 27th January 1997 (in western Victoria) also
> moved southeastwards, dropping cricket ball sized hail & a tornado
> which
> briefly touched down into Lake Fyans.
>
> Jane
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
>
> > The second event I have bugger all information on except I think it
> is
> one
> > of the longest tornado tracks in Australian history and I'm pretty
> sure it
> > tracked NW - SE as well. It was in South Western Victoria and I
> think
> it is
> > termed the "Casterton" tornado. My memory isn't serving me well this
> > evening but a figure of 76km is popping in to my mind regarding the
> track
> > and F3 rating also pops into mind. I have a feeling the book
> Cockeyed
> Bobs
> > and Willie Willies has information on it and I also think Clyve or
> Lindsay
> > Smail may be able to provide some more accurate information on it.
> >
>
>
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Date: Fri, 04 May 2001 07:25:23 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius
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Hi Lyle,
An interesting thing about the SW'ly jets in the US - I guess for one
the Rockies really help with the upper level troughs (again due to the
PV equation), but Australia also receives nice upper level troughs,
however - if they exhibit a strong NW'ly jetstream that is present too
far north, it taps into the tropical moisture. As many are aware - the
stronger winds/jet overlying slower winds create vorticity which lifts
the air up from underneath it, cooling and (if the air is moist enough,
which it often is in the tropical areas), condenses it. I guess think
of waving your hand over a page in a book very quickly and the page will
rise/flap over.
Just due to the nature of upper level troughs, NW jets tend to have the
areas of divergence/diffluence - and SW jets tend to have areas of
convergence/confluence (but not always, this is just an ideal model of
an upper level trough), the left entry region does give some lifting
also. The delta region (right exit of the jet), is present in NW'ly
jets, and is often one of the most favourable areas. However, it is one
of my least favourite jets! Purely because for us it brings in too much
upper moisture, and often is associated with cloud. Sometimes it
produces too much rain. However - in these situations, inland Australia
has often taken off beforehand, so one would wonder what lies under some
of the cells that have formed before the rain previous to that. I
prefer SW'ly or W'ly jets (even though it normally means most of the
cold air is to our S), purely because we don't get the cloud. We just
have to rely on our DP's being a bit higher to help add some extra
instability.
In regards to the big arcus cloud shot - this is going to sound
terrible, and I hope I don't sound too stuck up here...but which big
arcus cloud shot? As there have been two that I think most people have
said are nice, they are:
http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/anthony/241198_06.shtml Taken with a 35mm
point and click at Noosa.
http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/anthony/120301_07.shtml This is a pan
shot with 4, 28mm lens photos digitally joined together - taken from
near Pittsworth (in the Darling Downs).
AC
Lyle Pakula wrote:
>
> Hi,
>
> Re Tracks:
>
> I must say that over the last year i have learn't a little bit about the
> fundamentals of severe storms but have very little working knowledge - i
> hope to change that by the end fo this chasing season! But, from what i know
> of devlopment in the states, the situations that will produce an outbreak (a
> prime chase day) is a negativly tiling trough or just a good jet aloft. That
> translates to a mean flow direction that runs SW-NE, hence so do storms and,
> thus, their tracks. I imagine this must be similar to Aus.
>
> I really haven't found much literature on Australian tornadic events and,
> from here, i think it will be people like Anthony, Jimmy (etc) that will
> bring the community upto scratch - I personally look forward to this time ;)
>
> As a side note to Anthony, I was showing a collegue your photo's who was
> very impressed. Curious, was that big arcus cloud done with a 17mm?
>
> Cheers, Lyle
>
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Tichborne"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Re: Darwin low temps
Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 10:06:58 +1200
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; The coolest maximum in the dry season I can recall was back in late
June, early July '90, which coincided with the the end of an event, when
Canberra had about 2 weeks when the max was always below 10 degrees C.
From memory at the end of this event (which by the way lead to 1.5 metres of
snow in the Brindabellas), Darwin's maximum was about 25 or 26 degrees, with
a fortnight's worth of cool air, being pumped up over them.
> Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 18:43:45 +0930
> From: "Paul Mossman"
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: Darwin - cool min/max records?
>
> As well, last year a 23 was recorded during the massive snowfall event
down
> South, which caused very cool dry easterlies to prevail for several days.
I'm curious as to what the freezing levels would be over Darwin during such
outbreaks of cold southerly air in winter. How high would a mountain have to
be in that area to get snow?. (knowing that cold winter airstreams usually
have lost their moisture by the time they reach the far north)
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au
Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 07:38:13 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Hi all,
>
>In my opinion this is turning into the most interesting thread weve had on
>this list for almost years!!! Keep it up.
Agreed!
>Now in response to Lyle's email.
>
>Its an interesting point re: the return interval for tornadoes. I know of
>several US towns (and I don't mean city sized ones) that have been hit by a
>tornado more than once. Of more interest though is the town of Milawa in
>North Eastern Victoria (Australia) which has a population of just 270
>people. This town has been directly hit by 3 (yes three) tornadoes in the
>past 50 years, with the most recent one being on 9th September 2000.
>Further to this, the 2nd tornado was reported as having a damage path of 1km
>wide (i think it was in the early 70's) and significant damage was done to
>the well known Brown Brothers winery which is located on the outskirts of
>the town.
Of course, this is an AVERAGE return period - there will always be
exceptions that will be struck multiple times [and in this day and age will
attract media coverage because of the 'freak' event] as well as places that
NEVER seem to get struck [which will attract no attention at all - except
from frustrated storm chasers!]
Phil
Phil'Paisley'Bagust: paisley2 at chariot.net.au: Philip.Bagust at unisa.edu.au
- - - - - - - - - - - www.chariot.net.au/~paisley2 - - - - - - - - - - -
"...I'd wring your neck, if you had one..." Noel Coward
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Simon Clarke"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Meteorological excitement plus !
Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 08:24:50 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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High all.
Check out the latest prognosis for SE Qld. One of
the most exciting for a while.
I note that the forecast calls for possible hail.
Would this be winter type hail ?
Simon
From: "Godsman, Andrew AG"
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'"
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 09:26:32 +1000
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2650.21)
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Hi everybody,
I have yet to contribute anything to this thread as my knowledge just doesn't give me an opportunity. But I have to agree that the sharing of information and the level of healthy debate has made it a very interesting read and one that is hopefully going to give us a whole army of knowledgeable tornado/funnel spotters.
But to pick up on the point of Matt Smith in his email yesterday afternoon. The collection of data to form a nation-wide map of tornado tracks probably should be something for all of us to share the workload on, as I'm sure if we were all to dig we would find quite a bit more anecdotal evidence to point to tornado damage. So the point I'd like to raise would be, why wouldn't everybody who has the time and interest to help get together and divide the nation into much smaller areas where we would each research possible tornado activity over a set time into the past and likewise going forward. Maybe this would be something which each state branch of ASWA can coordinate and hopefully there would be a reasonable enough of a spread so that most people who don't work at bom or other, would be able to research the areas where or closely nearby to where they live. But this would be up for anyone to work out.
We should try to run it as an organised project and set a targeted completion date, how the data is to be presented, etc, etc. Matt, I'm not trying to give you a job, but I'd see you as an overall coordinator as long as this project didn't become bigger than Ben Hur, and being able to place the info on the ssc page as you had planned.
I would be very interested to hear of your feedback on this idea as I feel it would have some other benefits to all of us, which might include the gaining of true knowledge of local conditions which are more likely to produce tornadic events or other severe weather, eg the Illawarra escarpment, or Hunter Valley areas. I'm sure this information in itself will be of great use at some stage down the track. Anyway, I'm sure this is enough rambling from myself, but I'd nominate myself now as researching the nsw south coast area, down to whatever point unless someone wanted a pice of the action.
Cheers
Andrew Godsman
-----Original Message-----
From: Phil Smith [mailto:SmithP at ics.edu.hk]
Sent: Friday, 4 May 2001 7:14 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
The tornado which demolished the house I was in at Geelong (Vic) in 1946,
travelled in a SE direction as it was seen by the neighbours as
approaching from the NW and did further damage SE of the house. I was
too young to have any recollection of it myself, just relying on my
grandfather's oral reports. I don't have any knowledge of track details
except that it travelled at least 4 km and probably further.
Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
-----Original Message-----
From: "Jane ONeill"
To:
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 22:11:59 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
> Evening Andrew & all,
>
> The Casterton storm of 1st July 1989 spawned a tornado that was rated
> F3
> at one point along its path, with most damage being consistent with an
> F2 rating. This main track measured approx 70km & ran NW - SE from just
> west of Poolaijelo to near Paschendale (near Casterton which is NE of
> Mt
> Gambier). There appeared to have been more than 1 tornado.
>
> Forcing mechanisms of this storm were (per the BoM preliminary report):
> i) the storm was initiated on the leading edge of the upper cold pool
> under a marked diffluent pattern with split jet structure.
> ii) low level forcing played a role in initiating convection.
>
> A squall line developed with several larger embedded cells in the line.
> The line of storms moved east at ~40kmh, whilst individual cells within
> the line moved SE at ~60kmh.
>
> The Warragul tornado of 6th April 1994 (Gippsland). This tornado was
> also embedded in a squall line & was rated as low F2. The main focus of
> this path was from west to east & was ~ 4km.)
>
> The Halls Gap storm of 27th January 1997 (in western Victoria) also
> moved southeastwards, dropping cricket ball sized hail & a tornado
> which
> briefly touched down into Lake Fyans.
>
> Jane
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
>
> > The second event I have bugger all information on except I think it
> is
> one
> > of the longest tornado tracks in Australian history and I'm pretty
> sure it
> > tracked NW - SE as well. It was in South Western Victoria and I
> think
> it is
> > termed the "Casterton" tornado. My memory isn't serving me well this
> > evening but a figure of 76km is popping in to my mind regarding the
> track
> > and F3 rating also pops into mind. I have a feeling the book
> Cockeyed
> Bobs
> > and Willie Willies has information on it and I also think Clyve or
> Lindsay
> > Smail may be able to provide some more accurate information on it.
> >
>
>
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> +
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
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From: David Jones
To: "old AUSSIE WX (E-mail)"
Subject: aus-wx: temperature records...
Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 09:39:12 +1000
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 16:48:28 +1000
>From: "Lindsay Pearce"
>Subject: aus-wx: Darwin - cool min/max records?
>
>G'day all,
Lindsay,
take a lookie at Blair Melbourne Uni site at
http://www.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au/~blair//extremes/extpage.html
I'm note sure how frequently this gets updated by Blair?
Cheers,
DJ
Dr David Jones
Climate Analysis Section
National Climate Centre
Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9849 1646
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
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From: "dann weatherhead"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 10:19:51 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
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As an aside, Matt Smith has been compiling a tornado archive of the
occurences in the Eastern States for the past few years. Its an interesting
read. Its something that Matt is always working on and its a great place to
start when it comes researching Australian Tornadoes.
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/tornadoarchive/index.htm
dann
weatherhead at ozemail.com.au
----- Original Message -----
From: "Godsman, Andrew AG"
To:
Sent: Friday, May 04, 2001 9:26 AM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
> Hi everybody,
>
> I have yet to contribute anything to this thread as my knowledge just
doesn't give me an opportunity. But I have to agree that the sharing of
information and the level of healthy debate has made it a very interesting
read and one that is hopefully going to give us a whole army of
knowledgeable tornado/funnel spotters.
>
> But to pick up on the point of Matt Smith in his email yesterday
afternoon. The collection of data to form a nation-wide map of tornado
tracks probably should be something for all of us to share the workload on,
as I'm sure if we were all to dig we would find quite a bit more anecdotal
evidence to point to tornado damage. So the point I'd like to raise would
be, why wouldn't everybody who has the time and interest to help get
together and divide the nation into much smaller areas where we would each
research possible tornado activity over a set time into the past and
likewise going forward. Maybe this would be something which each state
branch of ASWA can coordinate and hopefully there would be a reasonable
enough of a spread so that most people who don't work at bom or other, would
be able to research the areas where or closely nearby to where they live.
But this would be up for anyone to work out.
>
> We should try to run it as an organised project and set a targeted
completion date, how the data is to be presented, etc, etc. Matt, I'm not
trying to give you a job, but I'd see you as an overall coordinator as long
as this project didn't become bigger than Ben Hur, and being able to place
the info on the ssc page as you had planned.
>
> I would be very interested to hear of your feedback on this idea as I feel
it would have some other benefits to all of us, which might include the
gaining of true knowledge of local conditions which are more likely to
produce tornadic events or other severe weather, eg the Illawarra
escarpment, or Hunter Valley areas. I'm sure this information in itself will
be of great use at some stage down the track. Anyway, I'm sure this is
enough rambling from myself, but I'd nominate myself now as researching the
nsw south coast area, down to whatever point unless someone wanted a pice of
the action.
>
> Cheers
> Andrew Godsman
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Phil Smith [mailto:SmithP at ics.edu.hk]
> Sent: Friday, 4 May 2001 7:14 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
>
>
> The tornado which demolished the house I was in at Geelong (Vic) in 1946,
> travelled in a SE direction as it was seen by the neighbours as
> approaching from the NW and did further damage SE of the house. I was
> too young to have any recollection of it myself, just relying on my
> grandfather's oral reports. I don't have any knowledge of track details
> except that it travelled at least 4 km and probably further.
>
> Phil
> <><
> International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
> Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: "Jane ONeill"
> To:
> Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 22:11:59 +1000
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
>
> > Evening Andrew & all,
> >
> > The Casterton storm of 1st July 1989 spawned a tornado that was rated
> > F3
> > at one point along its path, with most damage being consistent with an
> > F2 rating. This main track measured approx 70km & ran NW - SE from just
> > west of Poolaijelo to near Paschendale (near Casterton which is NE of
> > Mt
> > Gambier). There appeared to have been more than 1 tornado.
> >
> > Forcing mechanisms of this storm were (per the BoM preliminary report):
> > i) the storm was initiated on the leading edge of the upper cold pool
> > under a marked diffluent pattern with split jet structure.
> > ii) low level forcing played a role in initiating convection.
> >
> > A squall line developed with several larger embedded cells in the line.
> > The line of storms moved east at ~40kmh, whilst individual cells within
> > the line moved SE at ~60kmh.
> >
> > The Warragul tornado of 6th April 1994 (Gippsland). This tornado was
> > also embedded in a squall line & was rated as low F2. The main focus of
> > this path was from west to east & was ~ 4km.)
> >
> > The Halls Gap storm of 27th January 1997 (in western Victoria) also
> > moved southeastwards, dropping cricket ball sized hail & a tornado
> > which
> > briefly touched down into Lake Fyans.
> >
> > Jane
> >
> > --------------------------------
> > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > Melbourne Storm Chasers
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > ASWA - Victoria
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > --------------------------------
> >
> >
> >
> > > The second event I have bugger all information on except I think it
> > is
> > one
> > > of the longest tornado tracks in Australian history and I'm pretty
> > sure it
> > > tracked NW - SE as well. It was in South Western Victoria and I
> > think
> > it is
> > > termed the "Casterton" tornado. My memory isn't serving me well this
> > > evening but a figure of 76km is popping in to my mind regarding the
> > track
> > > and F3 rating also pops into mind. I have a feeling the book
> > Cockeyed
> > Bobs
> > > and Willie Willies has information on it and I also think Clyve or
> > Lindsay
> > > Smail may be able to provide some more accurate information on it.
> > >
> >
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> > +
> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > -
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Fri, 04 May 2001 10:42:36 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
You are not rambling Andrew. I think it is a good point.
What I would like to see is a project under way:
- for storms/tornado from all areas libraries
- snow reports included
We had tried to start up a snow group last year but it never got underway.
I feel that people should form a yahoo group for this project and then
things might happen. Iwill let someone else take charge as I tried
unsuccessfully last year so perhaps somebody else will have better luck.
Jimmy Deguara
At 09:26 AM 4/05/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi everybody,
>
>I have yet to contribute anything to this thread as my knowledge just
>doesn't give me an opportunity. But I have to agree that the sharing of
>information and the level of healthy debate has made it a very interesting
>read and one that is hopefully going to give us a whole army of
>knowledgeable tornado/funnel spotters.
>
>But to pick up on the point of Matt Smith in his email yesterday
>afternoon. The collection of data to form a nation-wide map of tornado
>tracks probably should be something for all of us to share the workload
>on, as I'm sure if we were all to dig we would find quite a bit more
>anecdotal evidence to point to tornado damage. So the point I'd like to
>raise would be, why wouldn't everybody who has the time and interest to
>help get together and divide the nation into much smaller areas where we
>would each research possible tornado activity over a set time into the
>past and likewise going forward. Maybe this would be something which each
>state branch of ASWA can coordinate and hopefully there would be a
>reasonable enough of a spread so that most people who don't work at bom or
>other, would be able to research the areas where or closely nearby to
>where they live. But this would be up for anyone to work out.
>
>We should try to run it as an organised project and set a targeted
>completion date, how the data is to be presented, etc, etc. Matt, I'm not
>trying to give you a job, but I'd see you as an overall coordinator as
>long as this project didn't become bigger than Ben Hur, and being able to
>place the info on the ssc page as you had planned.
>
>I would be very interested to hear of your feedback on this idea as I feel
>it would have some other benefits to all of us, which might include the
>gaining of true knowledge of local conditions which are more likely to
>produce tornadic events or other severe weather, eg the Illawarra
>escarpment, or Hunter Valley areas. I'm sure this information in itself
>will be of great use at some stage down the track. Anyway, I'm sure this
>is enough rambling from myself, but I'd nominate myself now as
>researching the nsw south coast area, down to whatever point unless
>someone wanted a pice of the action.
>
>Cheers
>Andrew Godsman
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Phil Smith [mailto:SmithP at ics.edu.hk]
>Sent: Friday, 4 May 2001 7:14 AM
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
>
>
>The tornado which demolished the house I was in at Geelong (Vic) in 1946,
>travelled in a SE direction as it was seen by the neighbours as
>approaching from the NW and did further damage SE of the house. I was
>too young to have any recollection of it myself, just relying on my
>grandfather's oral reports. I don't have any knowledge of track details
>except that it travelled at least 4 km and probably further.
>
>Phil
><><
>International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
>Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
>Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
>
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: "Jane ONeill"
>To:
>Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 22:11:59 +1000
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
>
> > Evening Andrew & all,
> >
> > The Casterton storm of 1st July 1989 spawned a tornado that was rated
> > F3
> > at one point along its path, with most damage being consistent with an
> > F2 rating. This main track measured approx 70km & ran NW - SE from just
> > west of Poolaijelo to near Paschendale (near Casterton which is NE of
> > Mt
> > Gambier). There appeared to have been more than 1 tornado.
> >
> > Forcing mechanisms of this storm were (per the BoM preliminary report):
> > i) the storm was initiated on the leading edge of the upper cold pool
> > under a marked diffluent pattern with split jet structure.
> > ii) low level forcing played a role in initiating convection.
> >
> > A squall line developed with several larger embedded cells in the line.
> > The line of storms moved east at ~40kmh, whilst individual cells within
> > the line moved SE at ~60kmh.
> >
> > The Warragul tornado of 6th April 1994 (Gippsland). This tornado was
> > also embedded in a squall line & was rated as low F2. The main focus of
> > this path was from west to east & was ~ 4km.)
> >
> > The Halls Gap storm of 27th January 1997 (in western Victoria) also
> > moved southeastwards, dropping cricket ball sized hail & a tornado
> > which
> > briefly touched down into Lake Fyans.
> >
> > Jane
> >
> > --------------------------------
> > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > Melbourne Storm Chasers
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > ASWA - Victoria
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > --------------------------------
> >
> >
> >
> > > The second event I have bugger all information on except I think it
> > is
> > one
> > > of the longest tornado tracks in Australian history and I'm pretty
> > sure it
> > > tracked NW - SE as well. It was in South Western Victoria and I
> > think
> > it is
> > > termed the "Casterton" tornado. My memory isn't serving me well this
> > > evening but a figure of 76km is popping in to my mind regarding the
> > track
> > > and F3 rating also pops into mind. I have a feeling the book
> > Cockeyed
> > Bobs
> > > and Willie Willies has information on it and I also think Clyve or
> > Lindsay
> > > Smail may be able to provide some more accurate information on it.
> > >
> >
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> > +
> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > -
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia
e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
Web Page with Michael Bath
Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com
President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Fri, 04 May 2001 11:05:01 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Michael, Shane et al,
That is a wonderful pic of a funnel and it clearly shows cyclonic rotation
ie it is going the right way so to speak. Well done. As Matt Smith says, it
has a nice dry slot which helps in descerning the direction of rotation.
Which direction was the storm moving and which way are you facing?
This also illustrates one of the frustrating things. So close and still a
couple of trees and hills in the way.
Great shot.
Jimmy Deguara
At 07:11 PM 3/05/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Sydney is a lot of 'spots '
>
>Michael
>
>
>
> > Just a quick note on the point 'Sydney should ahve been hit by now', a
> > recent speaker here showed a diagram of the return interval for torndaos
>in
> > the US - the shortest interval for any one spot was 2000 years - that's no
> > typo. I'm not sure what grid size they were analysing on but it must have
> > been small. Either way, it gives an indication on how infrequent it is for
>a
> > tornado to strike the sample place twice in any human scale length of
>time.
>.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia
e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
Web Page with Michael Bath
Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com
President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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Date: Fri, 04 May 2001 11:10:03 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Junee/Wagga funnel/s
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Shane,
Just remembered that was the same day Robert Goler got his funnels. I
wonder if there was no thunderstorm associated with it regardless of the
fact there was no lightning. There is precipitation evident. Do you have a
photo of the whole cloud or one facing a different direction. I take it you
were facing NW in those photos. How about S at the same time or similar
time. Helps immensely in deciding where this was in association with the
parent cloud.
Thanks.
Jimmy Deguara
At 05:26 PM 3/05/01 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi list,
> It's been an excellent year for storms so far around here (despite
> being a bit dry in parts) and to add to it I've just seen my first and
> hopefully NOT my last funnel cloud/landspout/tornado, YEY! It lasted
> about 10 min from 11:45am on the 22nd of April about 8-10km north of
> Wagga. There are three photos which turned out fairly well considering
> the camera used and Michael Thompson has been kind enough to offer to put
> them on his site. They were taken from about 5km away (it's hard to say
> exactly how far).
>I couldn't see if it touched down or not as it was behind a hill and there
>was no thunder at the time and very little rain. The cloud did however,
>soon after the funnel and wall cloud dissipated, turn into a thunderstorm
>over Wagga with heavy showers (anywhere between 15 minutes and 30 minutes
>later).
>
>I remember seeing a documentary called 'Eye of the Storm'
>where a chaser is filming impressive updrafts associated with a tornadic
>supercell and he says something like, 'This is what video is for',
>referring to the ability of a video camera to catch motion. It would be
>nice to have had one in this instance. Not that I'm complaining =]
>
>Regards Shane
>_________________________________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia
e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
Web Page with Michael Bath
Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com
President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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Date: Fri, 04 May 2001 14:40:50 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Andrew Wall
Subject: aus-wx: HELP needed from Electronics buffs....(lightning counter).
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi all,
I am currently working on a project that counts the number of lightning
strikes within a 30km or so radius. I have Most of the parts needed, but
one thing I cannot seem to find anywhere (DSE, Jaycar, Altronics) is a 5
digit counter. The guy who developed the circuit calls for a CONRAD 19 56
50-44 (whatever that is). Does anyone know where I will be able to get some
sort of Counter with either 4 or 5 digits???
Thanks
Andrew Wall
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "Shane Astridge"
To: aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Wagga funnel
Date: Fri, 04 May 2001 15:43:56 +1000
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Hi again,
The funnel was moving SE and the photo's were taken facing roughly W-NW.
Regards Shane
_________________________________________________________________________
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Date: Fri, 04 May 2001 16:03:36 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
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Greetings once more fellow list goers :)
I think this is going to come down to a fairly common thread in this
discussion (and I think I have talked about it before), but Australia
and the US both tend to use different types of CAPE. US forecasts tend
to be orientated towards surface based calculations. Australian
forecasts tend to be orientated towards PBL (Planetary Boundary Layer
based calculations). IE the commonly accepted Australian methods tend
to take into account the moisture in the lower 50-100mb of the
atmosphere to get a representative measure of heat and moisture. As if
you have a dry layer just above the surface (for example during
seabreeze situations on a dry day), the moisture at the surface really
isn't representative of the *mixed* parcel that would ascend into the
atmosphere. For example, if you had a 4L bucket of cold water at 10C,
and you added 1L of hot water at 60C, and took the temperature at the
top, you would get a much higher temperature then if you mixed the 5L of
water together and took the temperature at the top.
I tend to always take an average of the bottom 50-100mb moisture depth
when I look at skew-T's, otherwise I believe that if you plotted
strictly using surface observations, if there is drier air just aloft
you will get an over-estimated parcel ascent. Given that CAPE is
essentially the area between the parcel ascent and ELR (environmental
lapse rate), then subsequently your CAPE is adversely effected. One
example of US CAPE and AU CAPE that comes to mind was the flop in April
in the US when the SPC had a high risk out for some areas. CAPE was
2000-3000 in quite a few areas, but I was surprised when I looked at the
soundings how shallow the moisture layer was! It was barely 100m deep,
and was way too shallow. The same sounding in Australia would have
given CAPE's perhaps around 1000 if that. So this can make it difficult
in even comparing CAPE calculations between the two areas! But if you
brought Australia and US in line with each other in regards to CAPE, I
honestly believe that you will find that Australia will come out in
front in regards to high CAPE. With DP's often getting into the low
20's, sometimes mid 20's in the coastal severe storm areas, and even
inland getting DP's in the high teens and temps in the high 30's or low
40's, CAPE's can get quite high. NE NSW and SE QLD tend to be a nice
high CAPE corridor. While we don't get huge upper level troughs very
frequently, during Nov/Dec events we tend to get coldish upper temps
(-10/-12C at 500mb - sometimes less) and DP's are in the low 20's and
temps in the low 30's - you get some very nice CAPE's (4000-5000 is not
uncommon). You require a fairly deep moist layer, but that is fairly
common, especially if PBL airmass over the Coral Sea is transported over
the area - this can happen quite quickly if there has not been much
injection of southerly air over the Coral! Assuming surface CAPE
calculations, Some areas can get CAPE's towards five figures along the
east coast (more so towards Capricornia regions), with their mid-high 20
DP's!
More importantly, I think that CAPE in Australia tends to be utilised
more so than in the US. In the US, you need a front/trough/dryline
mechanism to break the cap because it's so strong. We do have strong
cap days here (with favourable upper atmospheres for storms), and that
can be broken by the ranges. The ranges along the east coast of
Australia certainly get their fair share of severe storms, and the
population density is even less in these regions, with limited (treed)
roads. Often in the US, the highest CAPE values go to waste because the
cap is too strong, rather the more modest CAPE's tend to get the chance
to break the cap. Then again, if the cap does break over the big CAPE
areas (and shear is somewhat supportive)...they have had some biggins!
There are other factors that we tend to experence that you don't hear
much about in the US. For example the seabreeze front, which is
actually a relatively new phenomena that has been 'discovered' by the
BoM. This is most noticable on days when you have a NW'ly at the
surface - the seabreeze intrudes and you get an area of convergence, as
well as extra moisture. The seabreeze front can either kill or make
storms very severe. I know that from my experience the seabreeze front
tends to not be conducive for TS development if TS have not already
occurred. But if TS have developed, they can ride along this boundary
and be quite severe. I know a few events that have developed from the
seabreeze front - Nov '73, Oct 13 '98, Dec 16 '98. Another one I
believe is Dec 12 '00, Paul Yole and I got slammed in by a storm that
intensified rapidlly as we were very close to it. Just 40-50mins prior
to this, we had made the observation of a strong easterly that had
arrived as we were driving through Aratula. It was early in the
afternoon (3pm?) but the seabreeze can go through areas in Toowoomba as
early as 2-3pm! (To digress a little, I've noticed that in summer the
seabreeze can get in as far as Goondiwindi, St George and Roma! Not
until very late though, around 3-4am in the morning, I've only noticed
this because sometimes if I wake up in the night to relieve myself, I do
what any normal and sane person would do - go by the computer, reload
GMSD and some obs :-) And these areas tend to get sudden DP increases
by up to 10C during this time in the morning!)
Back to the CAPE subject - I think the other thing that makes it hard is
because we don't have reliable CAPE forecasts. The aviation model does
CAPE forecasts, but I have found them incredibly inaccurate, often only
giving small areas of frequently under-estimated CAPE. I don't know if
it has something to do with their equations, or whether or not it's just
because its not calculating/evaluating the surface moisture properly.
Note that LI's suffer from a similar fate of inaccuracy, but is
certainly less noticable than CAPE inaccuracies. Probably because a
small inaccuracy in the surface moisture profile can lead to huge
inaccuracies in CAPE (over 500-1000!) Hence why I tend to calculate my
own CAPE.
Just thinking about this, I also wonder if the way we forecast storms
tends to be different to the way US chasers forecast their storms. For
example, US chasers tend to primarily only be after one thing -
tornadoes! Where as Australian chasers have always been happy with an
impressive storm - and we just forecast where we think the best storms
will be. I don't often sit down and think "Now if I want a tornado,
where should I go?" But it's difficult to do that simply because we
don't have data at a fine enough scale to do that! I tend to just be
happy knowing there's 2000 CAPE there for instance, I mean one of my
forecast/chasing thoughts is once it gets to a certain level it doesn't
really matter how much - just as long as its unstable! However it can
have some big effects - obviously there's a big difference between 2000
and 3000, but not between 2500 and 2800.
AC
Lyle Pakula wrote:
We simply don't have the georgraphic setup to
> produce those frequent high CAPE days, which, as Anothony was noting in
> another post, can make up for a lack of any dynamic effects. Hence, I agree
> with Jimmy's quote that an "F3 (oz) is as significant as an F5 (US)".
>
> But if you are tornado starved, with so many landfalling cyclones in Aus
> (relativly recently), i think that would be a prime spot to look for
> tornado's but stick to radar chasing only :)
>
> Cheers, Lyle
--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Geelong Weather Services"
To:
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 16:14:56 +1000
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Hi Phil - Do you have a particular date in 1946? All of my searching fails
to find a tornado in that year in Geelong. There was however a severe storm
with strong gale force easterly winds (around 90 kph) on 18-1-46 which
caused a great deal of damage to houses, trees, etc. On the 25-2-46 there
was a severe "electrical storm" through the Lorne-Geelong region which
caused damage and at least 3 casualties. Other than that there was a very
severe wind event in 1948 which demolished houses and uprooted trees right
across the urban area, hospitalising 4 people. But it was never described as
a tornado. The Geelong Advertiser at the time said it was "the strongest
wind since the Highton Tornado of 1926." Regards, Lindsay Smail.
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Phil Smith
Sent: Friday, 4 May 2001 7:14 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
The tornado which demolished the house I was in at Geelong (Vic) in 1946,
travelled in a SE direction as it was seen by the neighbours as
approaching from the NW and did further damage SE of the house. I was
too young to have any recollection of it myself, just relying on my
grandfather's oral reports. I don't have any knowledge of track details
except that it travelled at least 4 km and probably further.
Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
-----Original Message-----
From: "Jane ONeill"
To:
Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 22:11:59 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
> Evening Andrew & all,
>
> The Casterton storm of 1st July 1989 spawned a tornado that was rated
> F3
> at one point along its path, with most damage being consistent with an
> F2 rating. This main track measured approx 70km & ran NW - SE from just
> west of Poolaijelo to near Paschendale (near Casterton which is NE of
> Mt
> Gambier). There appeared to have been more than 1 tornado.
>
> Forcing mechanisms of this storm were (per the BoM preliminary report):
> i) the storm was initiated on the leading edge of the upper cold pool
> under a marked diffluent pattern with split jet structure.
> ii) low level forcing played a role in initiating convection.
>
> A squall line developed with several larger embedded cells in the line.
> The line of storms moved east at ~40kmh, whilst individual cells within
> the line moved SE at ~60kmh.
>
> The Warragul tornado of 6th April 1994 (Gippsland). This tornado was
> also embedded in a squall line & was rated as low F2. The main focus of
> this path was from west to east & was ~ 4km.)
>
> The Halls Gap storm of 27th January 1997 (in western Victoria) also
> moved southeastwards, dropping cricket ball sized hail & a tornado
> which
> briefly touched down into Lake Fyans.
>
> Jane
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
>
>
> > The second event I have bugger all information on except I think it
> is
> one
> > of the longest tornado tracks in Australian history and I'm pretty
> sure it
> > tracked NW - SE as well. It was in South Western Victoria and I
> think
> it is
> > termed the "Casterton" tornado. My memory isn't serving me well this
> > evening but a figure of 76km is popping in to my mind regarding the
> track
> > and F3 rating also pops into mind. I have a feeling the book
> Cockeyed
> Bobs
> > and Willie Willies has information on it and I also think Clyve or
> Lindsay
> > Smail may be able to provide some more accurate information on it.
> >
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "W.A. (Bill) Webb"
To: "Wx Aus"
Subject: aus-wx: New Site?
Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 16:25:55 +1000
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Hi All,
Anybody found this site yet?? From another list.
Bill
Proserpine
**Weathertalk
http://www.weathertalk.net/
Weathertalk.net bills itself as the "Internet's #1 Weather Search engine".
The site features a keyword search engine and a directory that indexes over
1,200 weather-related sites. Many sites include a brief description, and
all note the date they were added and number of hits. Also included are
listings of newest and coolest added resources, a forum and newsletter, and
even a "Fantasy Forecast" contest.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Carolyn"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: New Site?
Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 17:16:57 +1000
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Thanks Bill,
This is an interesting site. I just had a look for information on
Antarctica for my eldest daughter who needs climatic information on the
continent. I have tried a few sources but as yet I am unable to find a
great deal about it. If anyone else can assist that would be fantastic. I
hate geography assignments!!!!!!!!
Carolyn
----- Original Message -----
From: "W.A. (Bill) Webb"
To: "Wx Aus"
Sent: Friday, May 04, 2001 4:25 PM
Subject: aus-wx: New Site?
> Hi All,
>
> Anybody found this site yet?? From another list.
>
> Bill
> Proserpine
>
> **Weathertalk
> http://www.weathertalk.net/
>
> Weathertalk.net bills itself as the "Internet's #1 Weather Search engine".
> The site features a keyword search engine and a directory that indexes
over
> 1,200 weather-related sites. Many sites include a brief description, and
> all note the date they were added and number of hits. Also included are
> listings of newest and coolest added resources, a forum and newsletter,
and
> even a "Fantasy Forecast" contest.
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Bussie"
To: "weather list"
Subject: aus-wx: Thunderstorm
Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 18:09:05 +1000
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A very slow moving thunderstorm currently passing through here. Not very
active but on close strike. 6mm so far.
Bussie (Rutherglen NE Victoria)
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 04 May 2001 16:08:51 +0800
From: "Phil Smith"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
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It was definitely the 1948 event. I would very much like to find out the
exact date if you can look it up, as my Grandpa only narrowed it down
to "when Phil was a baby" and couldn't be more specific. I lived at 9
Bloomsbury Street Chilwell from September 1946 until December 1948. The
main part of the house was then a thick walled stone or concrete house
with a slate roof having no eaves around it. The front half of the house
was a poured concrete slab with mosaic tiling on top which had then had a
big timber verandah with a corrugated iron roof built over it. This had
then been built in with some sort of timber siding and divided into a
hallway and two rooms. I was in one of the front rooms asleep when the
tornado hit. The rest of the family were in the main part of the house.
Grandpa used to tell it something like this: It became so dark by three
in the afternoon that they had to light the lamps (not commonly done in
the daytime by my penny-counting grandparents).
A couple of times they went outside to look at the very dark and fast-
moving clouds.
They were inside when they heard a noise "like a dozen goods trains
rolling downhill out of control". The noise became unbelievable as
everything outside seemed to be getting blown away. Someone yelled
out "Pray for the baby!" As the noise abated, someone thought to check
up on me. They opened to door and found the whole front of the house
absolutely missing - not a trace of walls, roof, windows - every stick of
furniture vanished - except for one single item standing untouched under
the open sky on the mosaic floor. My pram was still exactly where it had
been, with the mosquito net still in place, and yours truly still
sleeping peacefully inside.
The neighbours had seen an enormous black column of rotating cloud
approaching and had dived down into their cellars to escape. Grandpa
said a lot of damage had been done.
My Grandpa always used to tell this story to explain why I have been a
weather nut all my life.
Phil
<><
International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
-----Original Message-----
From: "Geelong Weather Services"
To:
Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 16:14:56 +1000
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
> Hi Phil - Do you have a particular date in 1946? All of my searching
> fails
> to find a tornado in that year in Geelong. There was however a severe
> storm
> with strong gale force easterly winds (around 90 kph) on 18-1-46 which
> caused a great deal of damage to houses, trees, etc. On the 25-2-46
> there
> was a severe "electrical storm" through the Lorne-Geelong region which
> caused damage and at least 3 casualties. Other than that there was a
> very
> severe wind event in 1948 which demolished houses and uprooted trees
> right
> across the urban area, hospitalising 4 people. But it was never
> described as
> a tornado. The Geelong Advertiser at the time said it was "the
> strongest
> wind since the Highton Tornado of 1926." Regards, Lindsay Smail.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Phil Smith
> Sent: Friday, 4 May 2001 7:14 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
>
>
> The tornado which demolished the house I was in at Geelong (Vic) in
> 1946,
> travelled in a SE direction as it was seen by the neighbours as
> approaching from the NW and did further damage SE of the house. I was
> too young to have any recollection of it myself, just relying on my
> grandfather's oral reports. I don't have any knowledge of track
> details
> except that it travelled at least 4 km and probably further.
>
> Phil
> <><
> International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
> Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: "Jane ONeill"
> To:
> Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 22:11:59 +1000
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
>
> > Evening Andrew & all,
> >
> > The Casterton storm of 1st July 1989 spawned a tornado that was rated
> > F3
> > at one point along its path, with most damage being consistent with
> an
> > F2 rating. This main track measured approx 70km & ran NW - SE from
> just
> > west of Poolaijelo to near Paschendale (near Casterton which is NE of
> > Mt
> > Gambier). There appeared to have been more than 1 tornado.
> >
> > Forcing mechanisms of this storm were (per the BoM preliminary
> report):
> > i) the storm was initiated on the leading edge of the upper cold pool
> > under a marked diffluent pattern with split jet structure.
> > ii) low level forcing played a role in initiating convection.
> >
> > A squall line developed with several larger embedded cells in the
> line.
> > The line of storms moved east at ~40kmh, whilst individual cells
> within
> > the line moved SE at ~60kmh.
> >
> > The Warragul tornado of 6th April 1994 (Gippsland). This tornado was
> > also embedded in a squall line & was rated as low F2. The main focus
> of
> > this path was from west to east & was ~ 4km.)
> >
> > The Halls Gap storm of 27th January 1997 (in western Victoria) also
> > moved southeastwards, dropping cricket ball sized hail & a tornado
> > which
> > briefly touched down into Lake Fyans.
> >
> > Jane
> >
> > --------------------------------
> > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > Melbourne Storm Chasers
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > ASWA - Victoria
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > --------------------------------
> >
> >
> >
> > > The second event I have bugger all information on except I think it
> > is
> > one
> > > of the longest tornado tracks in Australian history and I'm pretty
> > sure it
> > > tracked NW - SE as well. It was in South Western Victoria and I
> > think
> > it is
> > > termed the "Casterton" tornado. My memory isn't serving me well
> this
> > > evening but a figure of 76km is popping in to my mind regarding the
> > track
> > > and F3 rating also pops into mind. I have a feeling the book
> > Cockeyed
> > Bobs
> > > and Willie Willies has information on it and I also think Clyve or
> > Lindsay
> > > Smail may be able to provide some more accurate information on it.
> > >
> >
> >
> >
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> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
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> > message.
> >
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > -
>
>
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X-Originating-IP: [213.38.89.28]
From: "John Roenfeldt"
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Fri, 04 May 2001 09:00:44
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 04 May 2001 09:00:44.0683 (UTC) FILETIME=[B3F6BDB0:01C0D478]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi List,
If you want a good example of an Australian wall cloud check out our website
picture:
http://members.nbci.com/wastorms/170498-20.html
chase report:
http://members.nbci.com/wastorms/170498.html
regards,
John Roenfeldt
>From: "David Croan"
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
>Date: Thu, 03 May 2001 18:24:00 +1000
>
>G'day Matt, Anthony and others.
>
>This is a great thread and I have certainly learned alot from all the
>posts!
>
>When I mean significant I am making a comparison between what I have seen
>here (my own eyes or others videos) to what I have seen in the US - of
>course this is not really a fair comparison for the number of reasons which
>i wont re-iterate. Rest assured I have read every single Australian chase
>report that is online and have enjoyed every single one - some amazing
>storms have been bagged. Please dont think I am scoffing at the Australian
>events. For me it is all about comparison - not competition. It is all part
>of the one global puzzle. .
>
>But in my oppinion, the only piece of Australian video which comes close to
>the kind of wallcloud 'appearance' I am thinking of, is video by yourself
>and Con Bitis of the 3/11/00 Sydney supercell. MT's 03/97 Shelharbour pics
>would indicate something similarly impressive - where was your camcorder
>Michael :-(. Other than these, relatively few Australian wall clouds have
>caught my attention. Jimmy's Oberon and Woolgoolga ones + a few others from
>other states look very good although rotation is impossible to make out in
>every case. In the US the chaser motto is along the lines "stay on the
>southwest side and you'll be fine". In Australia, I believe storm chasing
>will almost always be more fruitful if you stay on the NE as opposed to
>northwest side of a storm - not for tornadoes but for photogenic shelf
>clouds, dark bases, lightning, and of course updrafts.
>
>On the banana wall cloud, to be honest, and as I have told Jimmy, it did
>not
>impress me as a wallcloud. Of course I wasn't there - you guys are the best
>judge, but to me rotation was not discernible from video. I have seen many
>storms which exhibit 'bouts' of lazy rotation, but that is a far cry from a
>storm that means tornado business. If I have to do a double take, and
>squint
>and stare to make out rotation, then I suppose I just didn't find it all
>that impressive although in all cases it is interesting (here I am talking
>only about such storms I have seen with my own eyes - not judging your
>example as I know alot can be lost on video).
>
>>there are
>>countless photos of massive distant storms that were unchasable because
>> >roads/terrain, or because people were not able to chase, only take a
>>photo from their home or whatever, and you just know something is going on
>>in and under
>>these storms...
>
>That is what I ask myself all the time. But what is different about these
>monsters to the ones each of us has been under at some time where nothing
>obvious has happened? (I mean nothing in terms of rapid rotation) - I just
>wonder why should there be anything going on under these ones?.
>
>>I think that we do get our fair share of superell thunderstorms.
>
>couldn't agree more.
>
>>Take that fact with the low population out of the
>>citys, well I dont need to say anymore cause people have heard this all
>>before
>
>As an aside, when I was drivng around last year, from western Oklahoma all
>the way up to Nebraska and beyond, I came to the conclusion that the
>population density in these parts is not all that different to say, SE QLD,
>the northern rivers, northwest slopes (near the ranges) or the Hunter.
>
>>The next couple of years will be very interesting, and after time it will
>>pay
>>off for the people that are out in the field making the effort... it comes
>>down
>>to the old saying "you wont see anything sitting at home".
>>
>
>You are right. If this was 1993 - perhaps we would be considering the fact
>that Brisbane storm chasers, five months earlier had bagged some violent
>tornadoes near Bucca, and how our SA group got that monster on video (or
>would we have missed then all??). But would our perspective of what is
>'normal' be distorted then or is it being distorted now by a lack of
>tornadic storms. I know that big day will come - again my whole point is
>how
>often??.
>
>
>cheers, Dave
>_________________________________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
_________________________________________________________________________
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 19:09:12 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
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To place things into context more once I have heard on TV shows " I have
lived in Oklahoma all my life and have never seen one before "
I suppose we tend to think that they are so common that everybody has had a
brush with one.
Michael
>
> like i said, the grid size analysed on was not specified, so they could
have
> been talking about a 1m^2 grid block (not likely). But a long return
> interval does imply rare occurence.
> Wichita, Kansas is quite a large city but it's not like they get hit every
> year/decade. But their RI is definatly not 2000 years ;)
>
> Cheers, Lyle
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Michael Thompson"
> To:
> Sent: Thursday, May 03, 2001 2:11 AM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
>
>
> > Sydney is a lot of 'spots '
> >
> > Michael
> >
> >
> >
> > > Just a quick note on the point 'Sydney should ahve been hit by now', a
> > > recent speaker here showed a diagram of the return interval for
torndaos
> > in
> > > the US - the shortest interval for any one spot was 2000 years -
that's
> no
> > > typo. I'm not sure what grid size they were analysing on but it must
> have
> > > been small. Either way, it gives an indication on how infrequent it is
> for
> > a
> > > tornado to strike the sample place twice in any human scale length of
> > time.
> > .std.com
> > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> your
> > > message.
> >
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> > >
> >
> >
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> >
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill"
To: "Aussie-wx"
Subject: aus-wx: Low near Kangaroo Island / F18s / CJs
Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 19:21:04 +1000
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Evening all,
Some nice CJs to go with the F18 aerial display this afternoon that
stopped traffic - if our phones were ringing, no-one was there to hear
them....everyone from al of the businesses was out in the street
watching the acrobatics. The rate of climb towards the cirrus at 28,000'
(?) was just breathtaking!!!!! Acrobatic altitude seemed to be as low as
2,000' (can someone confirm this?)...anyway, a bit of cloudwatching
thrown in - some nice convection to the W & NW of Melbourne this
afternoon with occasional lightning.
....and has anyone noticed a very small low lurking to the south of
Kangaroo Island? Bears watching for the next couple of days. It's very
troughy over Victoria atm, eyes to the skies........
Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 19:19:27 +1000
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Hi Anthony
I must say that NW jets are too often moisture gravy trains. I was thinking
that if we can get ocean temperatures off the NW lower than normal we may
jet drier NW jets - or will the jets themselves be a vcitim of the cooler
water. Why I am thinking this is because at present parts of the Indian are
cooler than normal, if this were to persist until Spring and even move more
north ?
Your thread below would be a great topic for the AGM, some overheads , etc
on the characteristics of the jets you describe.
Michael
----- Original Message -----
From: "Anthony Cornelius"
To:
Sent: Friday, 4 May 2001 7:25
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
> Hi Lyle,
>
> An interesting thing about the SW'ly jets in the US - I guess for one
> the Rockies really help with the upper level troughs (again due to the
> PV equation), but Australia also receives nice upper level troughs,
> however - if they exhibit a strong NW'ly jetstream that is present too
> far north, it taps into the tropical moisture. As many are aware - the
> stronger winds/jet overlying slower winds create vorticity which lifts
> the air up from underneath it, cooling and (if the air is moist enough,
> which it often is in the tropical areas), condenses it. I guess think
> of waving your hand over a page in a book very quickly and the page will
> rise/flap over.
>
> Just due to the nature of upper level troughs, NW jets tend to have the
> areas of divergence/diffluence - and SW jets tend to have areas of
> convergence/confluence (but not always, this is just an ideal model of
> an upper level trough), the left entry region does give some lifting
> also. The delta region (right exit of the jet), is present in NW'ly
> jets, and is often one of the most favourable areas. However, it is one
> of my least favourite jets! Purely because for us it brings in too much
> upper moisture, and often is associated with cloud. Sometimes it
> produces too much rain. However - in these situations, inland Australia
> has often taken off beforehand, so one would wonder what lies under some
> of the cells that have formed before the rain previous to that. I
> prefer SW'ly or W'ly jets (even though it normally means most of the
> cold air is to our S), purely because we don't get the cloud. We just
> have to rely on our DP's being a bit higher to help add some extra
> instability.
>
> In regards to the big arcus cloud shot - this is going to sound
> terrible, and I hope I don't sound too stuck up here...but which big
> arcus cloud shot? As there have been two that I think most people have
> said are nice, they are:
>
> http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/anthony/241198_06.shtml Taken with a 35mm
> point and click at Noosa.
>
> http://www.bsch.au.com/photos/anthony/120301_07.shtml This is a pan
> shot with 4, 28mm lens photos digitally joined together - taken from
> near Pittsworth (in the Darling Downs).
>
> AC
>
> Lyle Pakula wrote:
> >
> > Hi,
> >
> > Re Tracks:
> >
> > I must say that over the last year i have learn't a little bit about the
> > fundamentals of severe storms but have very little working knowledge - i
> > hope to change that by the end fo this chasing season! But, from what i
know
> > of devlopment in the states, the situations that will produce an
outbreak (a
> > prime chase day) is a negativly tiling trough or just a good jet aloft.
That
> > translates to a mean flow direction that runs SW-NE, hence so do storms
and,
> > thus, their tracks. I imagine this must be similar to Aus.
> >
> > I really haven't found much literature on Australian tornadic events
and,
> > from here, i think it will be people like Anthony, Jimmy (etc) that will
> > bring the community upto scratch - I personally look forward to this
time ;)
> >
> > As a side note to Anthony, I was showing a collegue your photo's who was
> > very impressed. Curious, was that big arcus cloud done with a 17mm?
> >
> > Cheers, Lyle
> >
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> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
> Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 19:50:02 +1000
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The seabreeze is one of my pet loves and hates, I think you are onto
something with saying that the seabeeze can
be both a storm inhibiter or a storm assistant.
My experience in Wollongong is that the seabreeze will act as dreadful
inversion, sometimes only 800-1000m thick, and the cumulus/storms in the
first line against the seabreeze are often the strongest. The classic
example I can think of is the 11th December 1996.
http://ozthunder.com/chase/chase1.html or
http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/storm_news/1996/docs/9612-01.ht
m
this day was memorable as the BOM had warnings out on almost the entire
state ( or was it the whole state ). I travelled from Wagga to Wollongong
that day and the cumulus was suffering for most of that distance through
lack of moisture. Most of the very severe storms that day fired along the
seabreeze boundary. The sat pics on Australia Severe Weather show this.
I suppose with seabreezes it is easy to be critical of the sea breeze when
you ignore what the steering winds are doing. Weak to zero steering winds
will see bugger all storms on the maritime side of the seabreeze. Any storms
would propagate back west riding the seabreeze. However with good steering
winds pushing the storm into the pool so to speak the storm itself will
break the seabreeze inversion and use the moisture.
Michael
> much about in the US. For example the seabreeze front, which is
> actually a relatively new phenomena that has been 'discovered' by the
> BoM. This is most noticable on days when you have a NW'ly at the
> surface - the seabreeze intrudes and you get an area of convergence, as
> well as extra moisture. The seabreeze front can either kill or make
> storms very severe. I know that from my experience the seabreeze front
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From: "Michael Thompson"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 19:53:16 +1000
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Great story Phil, I enjoyed it.
Michael
> It was definitely the 1948 event. I would very much like to find out the
> exact date if you can look it up, as my Grandpa only narrowed it down
> to "when Phil was a baby" and couldn't be more specific. I lived at 9
> Bloomsbury Street Chilwell from September 1946 until December 1948. The
> main part of the house was then a thick walled stone or concrete house
> with a slate roof having no eaves around it. The front half of the house
> was a poured concrete slab with mosaic tiling on top which had then had a
> big timber verandah with a corrugated iron roof built over it. This had
> then been built in with some sort of timber siding and divided into a
> hallway and two rooms. I was in one of the front rooms asleep when the
> tornado hit. The rest of the family were in the main part of the house.
> Grandpa used to tell it something like this: It became so dark by three
> in the afternoon that they had to light the lamps (not commonly done in
> the daytime by my penny-counting grandparents).
> A couple of times they went outside to look at the very dark and fast-
> moving clouds.
> They were inside when they heard a noise "like a dozen goods trains
> rolling downhill out of control". The noise became unbelievable as
> everything outside seemed to be getting blown away. Someone yelled
> out "Pray for the baby!" As the noise abated, someone thought to check
> up on me. They opened to door and found the whole front of the house
> absolutely missing - not a trace of walls, roof, windows - every stick of
> furniture vanished - except for one single item standing untouched under
> the open sky on the mosaic floor. My pram was still exactly where it had
> been, with the mosquito net still in place, and yours truly still
> sleeping peacefully inside.
> The neighbours had seen an enormous black column of rotating cloud
> approaching and had dived down into their cellars to escape. Grandpa
> said a lot of damage had been done.
> My Grandpa always used to tell this story to explain why I have been a
> weather nut all my life.
>
> Phil
> <><
> International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
> Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: "Geelong Weather Services"
> To:
> Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 16:14:56 +1000
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
>
> > Hi Phil - Do you have a particular date in 1946? All of my searching
> > fails
> > to find a tornado in that year in Geelong. There was however a severe
> > storm
> > with strong gale force easterly winds (around 90 kph) on 18-1-46 which
> > caused a great deal of damage to houses, trees, etc. On the 25-2-46
> > there
> > was a severe "electrical storm" through the Lorne-Geelong region which
> > caused damage and at least 3 casualties. Other than that there was a
> > very
> > severe wind event in 1948 which demolished houses and uprooted trees
> > right
> > across the urban area, hospitalising 4 people. But it was never
> > described as
> > a tornado. The Geelong Advertiser at the time said it was "the
> > strongest
> > wind since the Highton Tornado of 1926." Regards, Lindsay Smail.
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Phil Smith
> > Sent: Friday, 4 May 2001 7:14 AM
> > To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
> >
> >
> > The tornado which demolished the house I was in at Geelong (Vic) in
> > 1946,
> > travelled in a SE direction as it was seen by the neighbours as
> > approaching from the NW and did further damage SE of the house. I was
> > too young to have any recollection of it myself, just relying on my
> > grandfather's oral reports. I don't have any knowledge of track
> > details
> > except that it travelled at least 4 km and probably further.
> >
> > Phil
> > <><
> > International Christian School E-mail: smithp at ics.edu.hk
> > Doctor Disk Limited (Office) E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk
> > Phone: Hong Kong 2646 4672
> >
> >
> >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: "Jane ONeill"
> > To:
> > Date: Thu, 3 May 2001 22:11:59 +1000
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
> >
> > > Evening Andrew & all,
> > >
> > > The Casterton storm of 1st July 1989 spawned a tornado that was rated
> > > F3
> > > at one point along its path, with most damage being consistent with
> > an
> > > F2 rating. This main track measured approx 70km & ran NW - SE from
> > just
> > > west of Poolaijelo to near Paschendale (near Casterton which is NE of
> > > Mt
> > > Gambier). There appeared to have been more than 1 tornado.
> > >
> > > Forcing mechanisms of this storm were (per the BoM preliminary
> > report):
> > > i) the storm was initiated on the leading edge of the upper cold pool
> > > under a marked diffluent pattern with split jet structure.
> > > ii) low level forcing played a role in initiating convection.
> > >
> > > A squall line developed with several larger embedded cells in the
> > line.
> > > The line of storms moved east at ~40kmh, whilst individual cells
> > within
> > > the line moved SE at ~60kmh.
> > >
> > > The Warragul tornado of 6th April 1994 (Gippsland). This tornado was
> > > also embedded in a squall line & was rated as low F2. The main focus
> > of
> > > this path was from west to east & was ~ 4km.)
> > >
> > > The Halls Gap storm of 27th January 1997 (in western Victoria) also
> > > moved southeastwards, dropping cricket ball sized hail & a tornado
> > > which
> > > briefly touched down into Lake Fyans.
> > >
> > > Jane
> > >
> > > --------------------------------
> > > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > > cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> > >
> > > Melbourne Storm Chasers
> > > http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> > >
> > > ASWA - Victoria
> > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > > --------------------------------
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > > The second event I have bugger all information on except I think it
> > > is
> > > one
> > > > of the longest tornado tracks in Australian history and I'm pretty
> > > sure it
> > > > tracked NW - SE as well. It was in South Western Victoria and I
> > > think
> > > it is
> > > > termed the "Casterton" tornado. My memory isn't serving me well
> > this
> > > > evening but a figure of 76km is popping in to my mind regarding the
> > > track
> > > > and F3 rating also pops into mind. I have a feeling the book
> > > Cockeyed
> > > Bobs
> > > > and Willie Willies has information on it and I also think Clyve or
> > > Lindsay
> > > > Smail may be able to provide some more accurate information on it.
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> > > +
> > > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > > your
> > > message.
> > >
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > > -
> >
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
> > +
> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > -
> >
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> > +
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> > to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
> > your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au-----------------------------
> > -
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp2.ihug.com.au: Host p213-tnt4.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.134.213] claimed to be storm.ihug.com.au
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Date: Fri, 04 May 2001 20:35:05 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Michael,
Now that I have your attention as I have tried several times before, please
change any of the links to our site from:
http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
to http://australiasevereweather.com/
So
http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/storm_news/1996/docs/9612-01.ht
m
becomes
http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/1996/docs/9612-01.htm
and so on
And Michael, a multiple copy and paste command will certainly change things
quickly. Thanks Michael.
Jimmy Deguara
>http://ozthunder.com/chase/chase1.html or
>http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/storm_news/1996/docs/9612-01.ht
>m
>
>
> > much about in the US. For example the seabreeze front, which is
> > actually a relatively new phenomena that has been 'discovered' by the
> > BoM. This is most noticable on days when you have a NW'ly at the
> > surface - the seabreeze intrudes and you get an area of convergence, as
> > well as extra moisture. The seabreeze front can either kill or make
> > storms very severe. I know that from my experience the seabreeze front
>
>
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia
e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
Web Page with Michael Bath
Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com
President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 21:28:24 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4522.1200
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Hi Jimmy
You can stop panicking, the older link I quoted was simply from my web
browser, not one my web pages.
I had run a find and replace through my pages some time ago.
But your right, I should update my favourites as well as I may be causing
people to bookmark your old site.
Michael
----- Original Message -----
From: "Jimmy Deguara"
To:
Sent: Friday, 4 May 2001 20:35
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
> Hi Michael,
>
> Now that I have your attention as I have tried several times before,
please
> change any of the links to our site from:
>
> http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
>
> to http://australiasevereweather.com/
>
> So
>
http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/storm_news/1996/docs/9612-01.ht
> m
>
> becomes
>
> http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/1996/docs/9612-01.htm
> and so on
>
> And Michael, a multiple copy and paste command will certainly change
things
> quickly. Thanks Michael.
>
> Jimmy Deguara
>
>
>
> >http://ozthunder.com/chase/chase1.html or
>
>http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/storm_news/1996/docs/9612-01.h
t
> >m
> >
> >
> > > much about in the US. For example the seabreeze front, which is
> > > actually a relatively new phenomena that has been 'discovered' by the
> > > BoM. This is most noticable on days when you have a NW'ly at the
> > > surface - the seabreeze intrudes and you get an area of convergence,
as
> > > well as extra moisture. The seabreeze front can either kill or make
> > > storms very severe. I know that from my experience the seabreeze
front
> >
> >
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> -----------------------------------------
> Jimmy Deguara
> Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher
>
> from
> Schofields, Sydney
> NSW Australia
>
> e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au
>
> Web Page with Michael Bath
>
> Australian Severe Weather Home Page
> http://www.australiasevereweather.com
>
> President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 09:16:38 -0400
From: David Hart
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: long time no post but 3 funnels today........
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
This forwarded from Ira Fehlberg:
>Hi all,
>
>Today my wife and I were on the way to an appointment to choose our
>weddings pics. btw i got married on April 22nd. When I left the house i
>loaded up the camera with some new film and took it with me. My wife
>Raeanne goes why are u bringing that? I said just casue u never know.
>Anyway we were driving over the casueway when i looked at a small storm
>coming in over near kings park, i looked and guess what was hanging out the
>bottom, a funnel!!!!! i said &%# at thats a funnel. It was pretty big, so i
>raced up riverside drive and pulled over on the grass. I got about 5 pics,
>it was very wide here and extended about 1/3 of the way to the ground. I
>watched it for about 10mins here. I now had some pics so i thought id try
>to get closer, we raced up to kings park and it was still going. I couldnt
>get a shot for trees, then all of a sudden another one comes down right
>next to the big one! so nows theres two funnels going and do you think i
>could get a view to get a shot, nope, trees everywhere. So anyway after
>about 20mins i finally get a clear view and the funnels gone, it was quite
>wide and lasted about 20mins all up. I waited abit longer but it seemed to
>be crapping out somewhat so I drove off. I kept looking back and blow me
>down another long skinny funnel came down! I got some more pics and we were
>30mins late for our appointment. Perth has had no storms all summer then
>the day we got married there was a great lightning storm that came right
>over our wedding reception, then today 3 funnels in 20mins :) I didnt have
>the video but hey atleast i got pics.
>
>Ira
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 04 May 2001 23:41:14 +1000
From: Matt Smith
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: long time no post but 3 funnels today........
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Wow Ira I can't wait to see these photographs...
When did this storm occur ?
Matt Smith
David Hart wrote:
> This forwarded from Ira Fehlberg:
>
> >Hi all,
> >
> >Today my wife and I were on the way to an appointment to choose our
> >weddings pics. btw i got married on April 22nd. When I left the house i
> >loaded up the camera with some new film and took it with me. My wife
> >Raeanne goes why are u bringing that? I said just casue u never know.
> >Anyway we were driving over the casueway when i looked at a small storm
> >coming in over near kings park, i looked and guess what was hanging out the
> >bottom, a funnel!!!!! i said &%# at thats a funnel. It was pretty big, so i
> >raced up riverside drive and pulled over on the grass. I got about 5 pics,
> >it was very wide here and extended about 1/3 of the way to the ground. I
> >watched it for about 10mins here. I now had some pics so i thought id try
> >to get closer, we raced up to kings park and it was still going. I couldnt
> >get a shot for trees, then all of a sudden another one comes down right
> >next to the big one! so nows theres two funnels going and do you think i
> >could get a view to get a shot, nope, trees everywhere. So anyway after
> >about 20mins i finally get a clear view and the funnels gone, it was quite
> >wide and lasted about 20mins all up. I waited abit longer but it seemed to
> >be crapping out somewhat so I drove off. I kept looking back and blow me
> >down another long skinny funnel came down! I got some more pics and we were
> >30mins late for our appointment. Perth has had no storms all summer then
> >the day we got married there was a great lightning storm that came right
> >over our wedding reception, then today 3 funnels in 20mins :) I didnt have
> >the video but hey atleast i got pics.
> >
> >Ira
> >
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
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> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 05 May 2001 00:19:13 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List
Subject: aus-wx: Extreme Instability over Australia (humour)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
Has anyone seen some of the soundings? Some extremely impressive
instability! Brisbane has LI's of -9986, Moree -9984, Melbourne -9978,
Adelaide -9976, Perth -9984, Sydney -9978 - but from the quick look I've
had at the soundings, Darwin takes the cake at -9988 LI's :-) Obviously
some sort of error in the way the LI's were calculated in the soundings
tonight!
--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Paul Yole"
To:
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Low near Kangaroo Island / F18s / CJs
Date: Sat, 5 May 2001 00:19:05 +1000
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Yeah, probably only 2000ft Doubt they would have gone lower (Greg....what do
ya think?)
Hope ya got pics of the F18's.......oh...and the occasional cloud
Had what looked to be a nice cell earlier today around 2:30om towards
Warracknabeal, but mainly only turkey towers the rest of the time. Hopefully
something will kick off soon
PaulY
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jane ONeill
Sent: Friday, 4 May 2001 19:21
To: Aussie-wx
Subject: aus-wx: Low near Kangaroo Island / F18s / CJs
Evening all,
Some nice CJs to go with the F18 aerial display this afternoon that
stopped traffic - if our phones were ringing, no-one was there to hear
them....everyone from al of the businesses was out in the street
watching the acrobatics. The rate of climb towards the cirrus at 28,000'
(?) was just breathtaking!!!!! Acrobatic altitude seemed to be as low as
2,000' (can someone confirm this?)...anyway, a bit of cloudwatching
thrown in - some nice convection to the W & NW of Melbourne this
afternoon with occasional lightning.
....and has anyone noticed a very small low lurking to the south of
Kangaroo Island? Bears watching for the next couple of days. It's very
troughy over Victoria atm, eyes to the skies........
Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 04 May 2001 22:42:20 +0800
From: Greg Spencer
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.74 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Low near Kangaroo Island / F18s / CJs
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Jane & Paul
If the Hornets were doing an aerial display for some event they would have been
as low as 500ft, climb rate is about 43,000 ft per minute from sea level. Still
waiting to see some hornets flying around Perth (storms too lol) havent seen
anything for a while now.
Regards
Greg
Paul Yole wrote:
> Yeah, probably only 2000ft Doubt they would have gone lower (Greg....what do
> ya think?)
>
> Hope ya got pics of the F18's.......oh...and the occasional cloud
>
> Had what looked to be a nice cell earlier today around 2:30om towards
> Warracknabeal, but mainly only turkey towers the rest of the time. Hopefully
> something will kick off soon
>
> PaulY
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Jane ONeill
> Sent: Friday, 4 May 2001 19:21
> To: Aussie-wx
> Subject: aus-wx: Low near Kangaroo Island / F18s / CJs
>
> Evening all,
>
> Some nice CJs to go with the F18 aerial display this afternoon that
> stopped traffic - if our phones were ringing, no-one was there to hear
> them....everyone from al of the businesses was out in the street
> watching the acrobatics. The rate of climb towards the cirrus at 28,000'
> (?) was just breathtaking!!!!! Acrobatic altitude seemed to be as low as
> 2,000' (can someone confirm this?)...anyway, a bit of cloudwatching
> thrown in - some nice convection to the W & NW of Melbourne this
> afternoon with occasional lightning.
>
> ....and has anyone noticed a very small low lurking to the south of
> Kangaroo Island? Bears watching for the next couple of days. It's very
> troughy over Victoria atm, eyes to the skies........
>
> Jane
>
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill"
To:
Subject: aus-wx: Supercells (NOT) / Victoria tomorrow / Chasing & learning
Date: Sat, 5 May 2001 01:49:03 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Evening / morning all,
Look at what we got when we sent Macca to Qld last year (cold outbreak),
& PaulY to Brisbane this year (great electrical storms & RAIN!).....I
tried it tonight when I over-reacted (no.... you don't get rid of me
*that* easily!!) to sinus medication & had to twiddle my thumbs in
Emergency for 4 hours waiting for the effects to wear off......but no
such luck!!
Anyway, the Victorian aviation forecast looks interesting...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FAR NE TILL 14Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS/
SCATTERED SHOWERS FAR SW SEA EXTENDING TO SW OF LINE NARACOORTE/
FLINDERS ISLAND BY 23Z.
The public forecast reads:
Tonight and Saturday: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms,
mainly on and south of the ranges during Saturday.
OK, so SDS has set in already for the Victorians ....but I wouldn't be
surprised to see an interesting day in places in Victoria on Saturday
(ie: today), maybe early to mid morning for Melbourne, especially after
today's forecast....& those CJs...and that low / trough - upper-middle
level (by the look of it) lurking to our west - it's not big but it's
there & may have an interesting effect on our Saturday.
As an aside to Anthony's earlier email......what's it like when you see
a CJ or a Cb (or hear hail on the car roof on an old video in Jan
1998)???? I want to do is to drive in that direction to get closer, to
learn, to experience, to photograph.......but I also love sitting in a
paddock somewhere or the side of the road with a cup of tea for hours,
just watching & learning about the atmospheric processes - you see great
sunsets, dust devils & clouds demonstrating the physics of the whole
system in a visible manner.
I could never stop doing any of that!!!!!! It gives me such peace &
joy!
Enjoy!!!!
Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au (Tony Langdon)
Date: 05 May 01 01:57:05 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: HELP needed from Electronics buffs....(lightning counter).
Organization: Fidonet: Freeway Usenet <=> FTN gateway
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
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Hello Andrew!
04 May 01 14:40, you wrote to All:
AW> I am currently working on a project that counts the number of
AW> lightning strikes within a 30km or so radius. I have Most of the parts
AW> needed, but one thing I cannot seem to find anywhere (DSE, Jaycar,
AW> Altronics) is a 5 digit counter. The guy who developed the circuit
AW> calls for a CONRAD 19 56 50-44 (whatever that is). Does anyone know
AW> where I will be able to get some sort of Counter with either 4 or 5
AW> digits???
Hmm, where are you, for starters?
I'm not familiar with that particular module. Is it an integrated
counter/display? Or just a display?
Radio Spares in Melbourne carry all sorts of parts. They're not cheap, but
have a very extensive range.
Tony, VK3JED
.. in my spare time.
--
|Fidonet: Tony Langdon 3:633/284.18
|Internet: tlang at freeway.apana.org.au
|
| Standard disclaimer: The views of this user are strictly his own.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: dencot1 at aol.com
Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 13:05:57 EDT
Subject: Re: aus-wx: HELP needed from Electronics buffs....(lightning counter).
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\Try Radio Parts in Dandenong Rd. Murrumbeena Vic.
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: dencot1 at aol.com
Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 13:16:13 EDT
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Low near Kangaroo Island / F18s / CJs
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should not do below 5000 ft
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 11:45:33 -0700
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That is for sure a wall cloud;
http://members.nbci.com/wastorms/170498-15.html
Looks like some RFD action *may* be apparent - very nice.
Cheers, Lyle
----- Original Message -----
From: "John Roenfeldt"
To:
Sent: Friday, May 04, 2001 9:00 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
> Hi List,
>
> If you want a good example of an Australian wall cloud check out our
website
> picture:
> http://members.nbci.com/wastorms/170498-20.html
> chase report:
> http://members.nbci.com/wastorms/170498.html
>
> regards,
>
> John Roenfeldt
>
> >From: "David Croan"
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
> >Date: Thu, 03 May 2001 18:24:00 +1000
> >
> >G'day Matt, Anthony and others.
> >
> >This is a great thread and I have certainly learned alot from all the
> >posts!
> >
> >When I mean significant I am making a comparison between what I have seen
> >here (my own eyes or others videos) to what I have seen in the US - of
> >course this is not really a fair comparison for the number of reasons
which
> >i wont re-iterate. Rest assured I have read every single Australian chase
> >report that is online and have enjoyed every single one - some amazing
> >storms have been bagged. Please dont think I am scoffing at the
Australian
> >events. For me it is all about comparison - not competition. It is all
part
> >of the one global puzzle. .
> >
> >But in my oppinion, the only piece of Australian video which comes close
to
> >the kind of wallcloud 'appearance' I am thinking of, is video by yourself
> >and Con Bitis of the 3/11/00 Sydney supercell. MT's 03/97 Shelharbour
pics
> >would indicate something similarly impressive - where was your camcorder
> >Michael :-(. Other than these, relatively few Australian wall clouds have
> >caught my attention. Jimmy's Oberon and Woolgoolga ones + a few others
from
> >other states look very good although rotation is impossible to make out
in
> >every case. In the US the chaser motto is along the lines "stay on the
> >southwest side and you'll be fine". In Australia, I believe storm chasing
> >will almost always be more fruitful if you stay on the NE as opposed to
> >northwest side of a storm - not for tornadoes but for photogenic shelf
> >clouds, dark bases, lightning, and of course updrafts.
> >
> >On the banana wall cloud, to be honest, and as I have told Jimmy, it did
> >not
> >impress me as a wallcloud. Of course I wasn't there - you guys are the
best
> >judge, but to me rotation was not discernible from video. I have seen
many
> >storms which exhibit 'bouts' of lazy rotation, but that is a far cry from
a
> >storm that means tornado business. If I have to do a double take, and
> >squint
> >and stare to make out rotation, then I suppose I just didn't find it all
> >that impressive although in all cases it is interesting (here I am
talking
> >only about such storms I have seen with my own eyes - not judging your
> >example as I know alot can be lost on video).
> >
> >>there are
> >>countless photos of massive distant storms that were unchasable because
> >> >roads/terrain, or because people were not able to chase, only take a
> >>photo from their home or whatever, and you just know something is going
on
> >>in and under
> >>these storms...
> >
> >That is what I ask myself all the time. But what is different about these
> >monsters to the ones each of us has been under at some time where nothing
> >obvious has happened? (I mean nothing in terms of rapid rotation) - I
just
> >wonder why should there be anything going on under these ones?.
> >
> >>I think that we do get our fair share of superell thunderstorms.
> >
> >couldn't agree more.
> >
> >>Take that fact with the low population out of the
> >>citys, well I dont need to say anymore cause people have heard this all
> >>before
> >
> >As an aside, when I was drivng around last year, from western Oklahoma
all
> >the way up to Nebraska and beyond, I came to the conclusion that the
> >population density in these parts is not all that different to say, SE
QLD,
> >the northern rivers, northwest slopes (near the ranges) or the Hunter.
> >
> >>The next couple of years will be very interesting, and after time it
will
> >>pay
> >>off for the people that are out in the field making the effort... it
comes
> >>down
> >>to the old saying "you wont see anything sitting at home".
> >>
> >
> >You are right. If this was 1993 - perhaps we would be considering the
fact
> >that Brisbane storm chasers, five months earlier had bagged some violent
> >tornadoes near Bucca, and how our SA group got that monster on video (or
> >would we have missed then all??). But would our perspective of what is
> >'normal' be distorted then or is it being distorted now by a lack of
> >tornadic storms. I know that big day will come - again my whole point is
> >how
> >often??.
> >
> >
> >cheers, Dave
> >_________________________________________________________________________
> >Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
> >
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> >message.
> >-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> _________________________________________________________________________
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>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula"
To:
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
Date: Fri, 4 May 2001 11:43:13 -0700
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Hi Anthony,
an intersting read once again :) Just a few points...
I can't talk about the NWS but when forecasting here, we certainly mix the
PBL. In fact, check out www.rap.ucar.edu/weather - goto upper air and the
charts have automated LFC etc and you can see this product does mix the
PBL - of course, it is not NWS.
> With DP's often getting into the low
> 20's, sometimes mid 20's in the coastal severe storm areas, and even
> inland getting DP's in the high teens and temps in the high 30's or low
> 40's, CAPE's can get quite high. NE NSW and SE QLD tend to be a nice
This is intersting, i know the other day i said that I thought the US had a
greater frequency of high CAPE days and i'm still out on that one - some
climatological analysis would be nice here - maybe after exams :) But I have
always been adamant that Aus get's higher DP's near the coast than any US
site - do we get high DP's inland up north?
However, i guess the importance is formation regions rather than just a
comparison of who can produce higher CAPES that never get utalised *or* goes
off everywhere and the storms become vapor starved. Also, the comment about
requiring dynamics to break the CIN is true but by no means the only
forcing - it does get bloody hot on the plains and breaking the cap is not
uncommon.
> Just thinking about this, I also wonder if the way we forecast storms
> tends to be different to the way US chasers forecast their storms. For
> example, US chasers tend to primarily only be after one thing -
> tornadoes! Where as Australian chasers have always been happy with an
> impressive storm - and we just forecast where we think the best storms
I wouldn't agree here. Most chasers here are very satisifed with an LP - a
tornado is a bonus. But picking a target to maximise the chance is always
the name of the game - but i think that has a lot to do with the fact that
you do ahve a real chance of seeing one whereas in oz it is more the luck of
the draw. Again - back to the argument of # of tonadoes in oz vs US etc.
Cheers, Lyle
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 05 May 2001 07:10:51 +1000
From: Matt Smith
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Just woke up to see a line of thunderstorms just off the coast of
Sydney/wollongong, red on radar, quiet impressive.
Matt Smith
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sat, 05 May 2001 08:36:37 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re:Funnels near Junee & Vic Rain
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Hi Lyle,
Lyle Pakula wrote:
But I have
> always been adamant that Aus get's higher DP's near the coast than any US
> site - do we get high DP's inland up north?
As you go further NW into the "Survivor Outback" :-) the network of obs
gets less and less dense. But one station comes to mind, Julia Creek -
guestimate, 700-800km W of Townsville, 400km S of the GoC. I remember
making a comment on its afternoon obs how dry it was because the DP was
only 24 :) The DP's tended to be 26-28 there most afternoons, but of
course it has the upper level tropical ridge on it.
Did you know that Mt Isa (250km W of Julia Creek) averages one severe
storm a year? This is interesting (yes I know Mt Isa is the largest
city in the world...but this is the actual town/city itself), given that
actual centre is quite small, it's a fairly high frequency for somewhere
very close (if not in) the tropics! Apparently they can get on the edge
of some jetstreams, and storms can be quite severe. Just an interesting
aside I thought :) Given the relative size of Mt Isa (I'm not sure what
it'd be, <10,000 though), it'd be like a suburb in Brisbane/Sydney
averaging a severe TS once a year (and some suburbs do...).
> I wouldn't agree here. Most chasers here are very satisifed with an LP - a
> tornado is a bonus. But picking a target to maximise the chance is always
> the name of the game - but i think that has a lot to do with the fact that
> you do ahve a real chance of seeing one whereas in oz it is more the luck of
> the draw. Again - back to the argument of # of tonadoes in oz vs US etc.
I guess my opinion of this is somewhat flavoured by the weather-chase
list and listening to many of the Americans forecast, and reading their
reports. Often they tend to tone down any report that didn't have a
tornado.
--
Anthony Cornelius
Vice President & Queensland Coordinator of the
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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From: Andrew Wall