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Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2000 00:23:12 +1100 (EDT)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
X-Sender: robert at zeppo.maths.monash.edu.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: REPORT: 12/11 & 13/11 chase reports
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Hi all

I've finally finished the reports for the last 2 days of my chase.

Sundays action is here:
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Pictures/2000/Nov/chase4.html

Mondays action is here:
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Pictures/2000/Nov/chase5.html


Cheers

--

Robert A. Goler        

E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

--

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin Storms...
Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2000 00:10:59 +1000
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Hi Everone,

While we're on this subject, i thought i might mention that Jason Rainforest
will be visiting Darwin/the NT for a few weeks, from around Nov 20 through
to early December, solely for the purpose of storm chasing and photography.
He has a digital camera, and will be sending pics back every night (unless
he can't pull himself away from a 'holy shit i just dropped my bundle over
that Cg' light show).  Even though it's not Brisbane weather, it would be
great to see near realtime pics from up there, so we are setting up a
section on BSCH for these.

I'll post the direct URL to this list before he leaves, which will be linked
to from the storm chasing section.





----- Original Message -----
From: "Paul Graham" <v_notch at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, November 15, 2000 10:22 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Darwin Storms...


> Hi Paul,
>             1000mb to 600mb winds look pretty hopeless but above that, the
> shear looks excellent.  Also, the mid level air is very dry so this is
> excellent for severe storms.  I wouldn't be surprised if you get a squall
> line or even a supercell if the surface to 600 winds improve.  Was there a
> warning for the storm you got today??  I know the BoM doesn't often issue
> warnings for Darwin so I'd be interested to find out.
> Paul G.
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Paul Mossman <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, November 15, 2000 8:18 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather Channel says POSSIBLE LOW In Coral Sea
>
>
> > The precipitation outlook did pick up on something occurring in the
Coral
> > sea - and had substantial falls of 250mm & over around it.
> >
> > The best model to look at for TC development is the TLAPS 900MB winds on
> the
> > Weather Co. webpage. This is the TC model that the BOM use to assess any
> > threat.
> >
> > AT +48hrs it does show some evidence of a possible developing Low but
way
> > off the Coast - closer to PNG.
> >
> > Something to watch. The Low they may be talking about could possibly be
a
> > mid level or upper level though - which would not be picked up on the
> 900MB
> > chart at first (seeing that the 900MB chart is essentially the lower
> > levels).
> >
> > Keep an eye on it!
> >
> > BTW - here - well after thinking the hopes of any TS activity we have
just
> > had an amazing gust front or gulf line flog through here - winds
estimated
> > to be over 40knots, swirling clouds of dust and shit, and grainy
hail/rain
> > from a great rain shaft. The rain was COLD which is very unusual here.
> >
> > Paul in Darwin.
>
> >
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 15 Nov 2000 09:50:38 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Darwin Storms...
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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Paul G. wrote:

>             1000mb to 600mb winds look pretty hopeless but above that,
the
> shear looks excellent.  Also, the mid level air is very dry so this is
> excellent for severe storms.  I wouldn't be surprised if you get a squall
> line or even a supercell if the surface to 600 winds improve.  Was there
a
> warning for the storm you got today??  I know the BoM doesn't often issue
> warnings for Darwin so I'd be interested to find out.

Keep in mind that it is the shear in the layer from the surface to about 6
km that is very important for supercell development.  We need a shear
magnitude of around 20 m/s or greater in this layer in order for supercell
convection to develop.  Both directional and speed shear are important and
either or both can contribute to reaching the 20 m/s value.  The best way
to visualize this and to determine the magnitude is to plot a hodograph.

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 15 Nov 2000 10:15:12 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather Channel says POSSIBLE LOW In Coral Sea
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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 Patrick wrote:

> To add to Paul's informative comments, the US MRF (Medium Range Forecast)
> has been running a Qld tropical low scenario for a couple of days.

I have not seen Paul's comments on the MRF.  However, I would like to point
out that during the recent past the MRF has been upgraded.  Two years ago I
would said that the "MRF is a blind chicken, it gets a piece of corn now
and then".  However, it is now much better.  Having said that, the UKMET
and the ECMWF are better models.  This is not simply opinion but an
established fact.  I tend to rely more on these than the MRF.  Moreover,
you might find it of interest that the UK and Australia both have better
computers as applied to weather than the US.  The UK also has a larger pool
of manpower to work on these models than does the US.  (This information
came from the US Weather Service Director in a talk at the recent National
Weather Association Annual meeting.)  There was at least one other country
that surpassed the US in computer power but it slips my mind and I can't
find my notes at the moment.

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 15 Nov 2000 10:25:12 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Christchurch Thunderstorm
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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John Gaul wrote:

> >>From the sounds of this, you were exposing yourself to a great
lightning
> >strike risk,   Why did you apparently feel safe?  There is a saying here
by
> >the lightning safety folks that follows:
> >"If you can see it, flee it, if you can hear it, clear it!"
> 
> 
> The lightning was mainly C to C although from my vantage I didn't think I
> was at risk as the lightning was quite a distance from me. I did come
down
> off the roof when I noticed some good CG bolts to the NW of me looking
> towards the NW part of the city on the leading edge of the storm but I
> slipped and nearly broke my back when the ladder gave way. 

It is often the first CG that catches many off guard.  It can strike or
reach the ground as much as 10 to 20 km from the storm.  It is from this
fact that the above saying was developed.  You also mentioned "pink"
flashes.  The observed colors, as I understand it, are often caused by
impurities in the air between the observer and the flash.  However, I can't
recall where I heard this.

Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Harald Richter <hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Massive LI (fwd)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Australian Severe Weather Association)
Date: Wed, 15 Nov 2000 10:03:19 -0600 (CST)
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Hi all,
Paul wrote into reply to Radar-Les (TM, patent pending):

> True, but I would not expect the area of ascent to be the same as the area
> of descent, although on a more localised scale such a storm, an updraft and
> downdraft occur within close proximity.
> The persistent rainy weather pattern we've been having here in SE NSW lately
> seems to be resulting from broad scale ascent of air flowing from the
> tropics, supported by moist onshore winds at the surface and a stationary
> inland trough.  The Sydney sounding indicates surface to mid level E/NE's
> with upper level N/NW's.  The upper winds will also be carrying the remants
> of thunderstorms occurring through the inland parts of NSW and QLD where
> there is drier air at mid to upper levels. Winds are mostly light in the
> vicinity of 15/20 kts most of the way up although there is a bit of an upper
> jetstream.

Sydney's 04 UTC sounding (15 Nov) is moist adiabatic all the way to
the tropopause.  Moist adiabatic soundings are typical for heavy rain 
events - it is the ``converged'' sounding that nature always wants
to end up with in these events.  You can have heavy and prolonged rain events without 
strong localised lift.  A warm moist feeder band at low and/or mid-levels 
with gradually rising flow along isentropic surfaces can do the trick.
This *might* have happened in this case.  The proximity of the cut-off 
and lift associated with the cut-off was a major player for this event.

Yesterday morning there was a pocket of rain-cooled air in SE NSW.
In conjunction with a moist adiabatic sounding I have my doubts that 
any parcel would yield an LI much below zero.

Cheers,  Harald

-- 
-------------------------------------------
Harald Richter
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory
1313 Halley Circle
Norman, OK 73069, U.S.A.
ph.:    (405) 366-0430
fax:    (405) 579-0808
email:  hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov
web:    http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/~hrichter
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Harald Richter <hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov>
Subject: aus-wx: WEATHER: yesterday
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Australian Severe Weather Association)
Date: Wed, 15 Nov 2000 12:38:29 -0600 (CST)
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Hi folks,

Short synopsis of yesterday's convection as seen on satellite 
and in sounding data:

A band of convection initiated from NC NSW well into W QLD. 
The orientation was more meridional than anticipated, and
followed the surface moist axis along the broad surface trough.
11Z soundings indicate marginal shear for severe storms.

Below the upper-level low with its associated steep lapse 
rates non-severe convection initiated in C NSW and along a
band in S VIC.  I presume that none of that convection was organised 
as the flow close the upper low was weak (0-6 km shear in
11Z MEL sounding was a whopping 5 knots). The anvil size
of the NSW/VIC convection was relatively small compared
to some of the QLD storms indicating comparatively small
convective mass flux. Storms moved W as they were embedded
in flow S of the upper low. 

With the upper low drifting SSE the situation might be slightly 
different today.

Cheers, Harald
 
-- 
-------------------------------------------
Harald Richter
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory
1313 Halley Circle
Norman, OK 73069, U.S.A.
ph.:    (405) 366-0430
fax:    (405) 579-0808
email:  hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov
web:    http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/~hrichter
-------------------------------------------
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Christchurch Thunderstorm
Date: Wed, 15 Nov 2000 12:01:15 -0700
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hey Leslie

I would think anyone who chases storms would have an inate knowledge of
their power,  dynamically, electrically and hydrologically. I remeber one
afternoon in class some bolts started to hit the front range, a fair way
back. The anvil was not advecting over our building yet. So class finishes
10 minutes later and a few of us run up to goto the roof look out. The storm
was really moving because we opended the door, looked up and saw the core
was right above us - a typical Ft Collins virga storm. We slammed the door
shut within a second and just all looked at each other like "no-way".

It was actually a very pretty cell, for that split second we looked, then
observed through the roof top sky light in our office. Still, it highlights
your point - and that's still taking into account all the lighting rods on
the roof ;)

cheers, LYle

----- Original Message -----
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, November 14, 2000 6:43 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Christchurch Thunderstorm


> All:
>
> > > "If you can see it, flee it, if you can hear it, clear it!"
> > >
> > > I would urge all the storm chase folks not to follow this example.
>
> Once I sent this message I was a bit disturbed that there might be a
> misunderstanding.  The example that I urged storm chasers not to follow
was
> going up on ones roof during a thunderstorm.  But I am advocating that the
> saying above, 'see it flee it' and 'hear it clear it' is to be followed.
> This saying was from the wit of a medical doctor who had treated the
> survivors of lightning strikes and had followed them for many years.  As
> mentioned before, those who survive a direct lightning strike are often
> permanently handicapped and unable to work again due to damage to the
> central nervous system.
>
> Les
> ************************
> Leslie R. Lemon
> Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
> E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Adam Mayo" <oyam at bigpond.com>
To: "Australian Severe Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx:    Mona Vale  NSW Rain
Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2000 08:11:59 +1100
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Hello Everyone,

Rainfall to 6.30 am this morning.

Tuesday 14th   11.30 am to Wednesday 15th  9.00 am                     54.5
mm

Wednesday 15th  9.00am to 5.15 pm
52.0  mm

Thursday 16th  to 6.30 am
3.75 mm

The entrance to Narrabeen Lake has widened remakably and a lot of the sand
dunes there have disappeared.  We have not actually ever seen the water
running out over such a wide area there before.

Judy Mayo.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Christchurch Thunderstorm
Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2000 08:25:34 +1100
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Clyve from Geelong probably knows more about the story then me, but some
years back two people were killed in a weak thunderstorm by a lightning
strike at Geelong. They were sheltering in a picnic shed. The most
significant thing was this was about the only sole lightning strike that the
storm put out.

Michael


> It is often the first CG that catches many off guard.  It can strike or
> reach the ground as much as 10 to 20 km from the storm.  It is from this
> fact that the above saying was developed.  You also mentioned "pink"
> flashes.  The observed colors, as I understand it, are often caused by
> impurities in the air between the observer and the flash.  However, I
can't
> recall where I heard this.
>



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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Darwin Storms...
Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2000 08:22:33 +1100
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Hi Paul

The sub tropical jet being located so far north is something I have noticed
over the past few days. Yesterday I noticed that the 200mb winds were quite
strong over the top end and thought exactly the same as you, that some
storms could go severe.

We need to jet the jet back down to SE Quuensland sometime over the next 2.5
weeks so the TDU2000 chase can score some goodies.

Michael




> Hi Paul,
>             1000mb to 600mb winds look pretty hopeless but above that, the
> shear looks excellent.  Also, the mid level air is very dry so this is
> excellent for severe storms.  I wouldn't be surprised if you get a squall
> line or even a supercell if the surface to 600 winds improve.  Was there a
> warning for the storm you got today??  I know the BoM doesn't often issue
> warnings for Darwin so I'd be interested to find out.
> Paul G.
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Paul Mossman <ntstorms at bigpond.com>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Wednesday, November 15, 2000 8:18 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather Channel says POSSIBLE LOW In Coral Sea
>
>
> > The precipitation outlook did pick up on something occurring in the
Coral
> > sea - and had substantial falls of 250mm & over around it.
> >
> > The best model to look at for TC development is the TLAPS 900MB winds on
> the
> > Weather Co. webpage. This is the TC model that the BOM use to assess any
> > threat.
> >
> > AT +48hrs it does show some evidence of a possible developing Low but
way
> > off the Coast - closer to PNG.
> >
> > Something to watch. The Low they may be talking about could possibly be
a
> > mid level or upper level though - which would not be picked up on the
> 900MB
> > chart at first (seeing that the 900MB chart is essentially the lower
> > levels).
> >
> > Keep an eye on it!
> >
> > BTW - here - well after thinking the hopes of any TS activity we have
just
> > had an amazing gust front or gulf line flog through here - winds
estimated
> > to be over 40knots, swirling clouds of dust and shit, and grainy
hail/rain
> > from a great rain shaft. The rain was COLD which is very unusual here.
> >
> > Paul in Darwin.
>
> >
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 15 Nov 2000 16:31:30 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Christchurch Thunderstorm
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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LYle,

Did this storm overhead produce lightning?

Thanks for contributing this.

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Patrick Tobin" <patricktobin at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather Channel says POSSIBLE LOW In Coral Sea
Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2000 08:33:58 +1100
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From: Leslie R. Lemon <lrlemon at compuserve.com>


> Having said that, the UKMET
>and the ECMWF are better models.  This is not simply opinion but an
>established fact.  I tend to rely more on these than the MRF.  Moreover,
>you might find it of interest that the UK and Australia both have better
>computers as applied to weather than the US.  The UK also has a larger pool
>of manpower to work on these models than does the US.

The problem for many of us "amateur" enthusiasts on the list is that the
"user pays" philosophy has meant that the output from the UK and ECMWF
(other than in very limited form) is not readily available on the web
without requiring a lot of money.

We have got a little bit more access to Australian weather data through the
BOM (Does anyone know if there are any more developments re the basic
product set?) and lately The Weather Company has greatly expanded access to
some of the models and close to realtime data to phenomena such as lightning
and radar.

Nevertheless it is the web availability of US models and satellite imagery
through sites such as Mike Fiorino's PCMDI, FNMOC, CIMMS, NCEP etc in very
accessible formats that have incredibly increased access to the weather for
Australian enthusiasts (and enabled our chasers to get to the right spots to
get some of the great photos we are becoming accustomed to feasting our eyes
on.)

PS AVN is still maintaining the Qld coastal low over the weekend. Definitely
worth watching that cloud out in the Coral Sea currently to the north and
north-west of New Caledonia.

Patrick

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 15 Nov 2000 16:34:55 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Massive LI (fwd)
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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Harald wrote:

> Paul wrote into reply to Radar-Les (TM, patent pending):
> 

<G>  LOL

 
> Sydney's 04 UTC sounding (15 Nov) is moist adiabatic all the way to
> the tropopause.  Moist adiabatic soundings are typical for heavy rain 
> events - it is the ``converged'' sounding that nature always wants
> to end up with in these events.  You can have heavy and prolonged rain
events without 
> strong localised lift.  A warm moist feeder band at low and/or mid-levels

> with gradually rising flow along isentropic surfaces can do the trick.
> This *might* have happened in this case.  The proximity of the cut-off 
> and lift associated with the cut-off was a major player for this event.
> 
> Yesterday morning there was a pocket of rain-cooled air in SE NSW.
> In conjunction with a moist adiabatic sounding I have my doubts that 
> any parcel would yield an LI much below zero.

Good points, all!  When are you leaving for the land of Oz?

Radar - Les


************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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From: "Simon" <borgprocrast at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC 02s going for round 2 ! and NT Severe Storms
Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2000 08:57:18 +1100
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<x-flowed>
Hey, do I win? I said Nov 17th :)
- Simon

(I'm calling 02 "Astrid" BTW)
From: "Karratha Weather Observations" <karrathaweather at wn.com.au>
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: TC 02s going for round 2 ! and NT Severe Storms
Date: Wed, 15 Nov 2000 16:58:31 +0800

Hey all

JTWC has finally woken up and issued a TC formation alert for ex-TC02s
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/products/jtwc/sh0201.gif
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/products/jtwc/sh0200sa.gif
http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil:7777/tc_thumbs/20001115.0731.gms-5.vis.x.NONAME.02S.jpg 
<===Latest VIS image


_____________________________________________________________________________________
Get more from the Web.  FREE MSN Explorer download : http://explorer.msn.com

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From: Blair Trewin <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Hot in Perth
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2000 09:27:42 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> 
> Quite hot in Perth today, the maximum reached 37.3 in the city at 1:13pm.
> Pretty hot for November.
> 
> Its also the 5th day in a row with temps over 30C, common for the middle of
> the summer, but doesn't happen that often in November.
> 

Perth Airport has had 5 days in a row over 32, only the third time 
this has happened in November (and both others were later in the 
month: 22-26 November 1962 and 23-27 November 1973).

Given that hot weather is not exactly unknown in Perth, I was a
bit puzzled to hear the WACA curator claim that as his excuse for the
dangerous pitch that caused yesterday's Queensland-WA match to be 
called off.

Blair Trewin
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From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Christchurch Thunderstorm
Date: Wed, 15 Nov 2000 15:27:53 -0700
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Hi Les,

yep, not very frequent though but i think the cell did develop once off the
foothills, but quite a way from us. I do recall that precipitation was not
reaching the ground - just virga at the time of passing.

cheers, Lyle

----- Original Message -----
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, November 15, 2000 2:31 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Christchurch Thunderstorm


> LYle,
>
> Did this storm overhead produce lightning?
>
> Thanks for contributing this.
>
> Les
>
> ************************
> Leslie R. Lemon
> Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
> Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
> E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
>
>
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From: "Paul Yole" <pyole at australia.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Good Luck TD2K People!
Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2000 09:13:42 +1100
Organization: ASWA Victoria
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1">
<META content="MSHTML 5.50.4134.600" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I agree James. A great time was had by all last 
year. Your not the only one wishing they could be there this year, but I'm 
definately going to be there next year....no matter what. Oh, and Anthony, 
remember, you promised to chase some Supercells down this way so I could join in 
the fun &lt;G&gt;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I hope everyone that's going this year has a great 
time, and that everyone takes care.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>PaulY</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A title=jamestorm at ozemail.com.au href="mailto:jamestorm at ozemail.com.au">James 
  Chambers</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A title=aussie-weather at world.std.com 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com">aus-wx</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, November 15, 2000 10:57 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Good Luck TD2K 
  People!</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>Hi all<BR><BR>I'd just like to wish everyone about to embark on 
  the big chase a really<BR>great and successful time.&nbsp; I was there last 
  year and it was truly an<BR>experience to remember; I wish I was going this 
  year but I'll have to chase<BR>the tornadic supercells locally instead.&nbsp; 
  If you guys (and girls) are close<BR>to home and my work schedule permits, I 
  might briefly join up with you.<BR><BR>Anyway, good luck and may the storms be 
  with you!<BR><BR>Regards<BR><BR>James Chambers<BR>The Brisbane &amp; SE Qld 
  Storm Site<BR><A 
  href="http://www.qldstorms.com">http://www.qldstorms.com</A><BR><A 
  href="http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html">http://www.ozemail.com.au/~jamestorm/bristorm.html</A><BR><BR>&nbsp;+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+<BR>&nbsp;To 
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  href="mailto:-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au">-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au</A>------------------------------<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2000 09:41:04 +1100
From: David Carroll <davidkc at nia.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.74 [en] (Win98; U)
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To: Aussie Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Bathurst Weather
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9.35am 16/11.

Well if anyone is heading to Bathurst for the FAI 1000, I would suggest
bringing a boat to sleep in. At present I cannot see Mt Panorama from
fog and rain. I have been listening to the Security Channel, heaps of
people have flooded sites, ammenities blocks flooded as well.

Regards

Dave
Mt Panorama Frequency Page
www.nia.net.au/~davidkc

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Geelong Weather Services" <gws at pipeline.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Christchurch Thunderstorm
Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2000 10:00:39 +1100
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Michael is right.  It happened on 27 January, 1997 in Geelong's Eastern
Gardens while a group of people were under a metal and wooden rotunda.
Several others were knocked down and the two (husband and wife but on
different sides of the rotunda) were killed. There had been a little light
rain and some distant thunder but no warning of an impending strike. Lindsay
Smail.

-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Michael
Thompson
Sent: Thursday, 16 November 2000 7:26 AM
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Christchurch Thunderstorm


Clyve from Geelong probably knows more about the story then me, but some
years back two people were killed in a weak thunderstorm by a lightning
strike at Geelong. They were sheltering in a picnic shed. The most
significant thing was this was about the only sole lightning strike that the
storm put out.

Michael



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From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle at atmos.colostate.edu>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Christchurch Thunderstorm
Date: Wed, 15 Nov 2000 16:33:40 -0700
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Hi,

This is not uncommon, obviously the fatality but not the whole lighting
before precip. I imagine most of us would have observed this and it
corelates with the current lightning theories. Consider a bulding updraught,
a riming hail particle within. Radar will be showing high reflectivites up
in the draught but no sizable particle able to fall out of the updraught.
The hail/groupel charges up and can discharge without any precip ever
reaching the ground.

cya, Lyle

----- Original Message -----
From: "Geelong Weather Services" <gws at pipeline.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Wednesday, November 15, 2000 4:00 PM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Christchurch Thunderstorm


> Michael is right.  It happened on 27 January, 1997 in Geelong's Eastern
> Gardens while a group of people were under a metal and wooden rotunda.
> Several others were knocked down and the two (husband and wife but on
> different sides of the rotunda) were killed. There had been a little light
> rain and some distant thunder but no warning of an impending strike.
Lindsay
> Smail.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Michael
> Thompson
> Sent: Thursday, 16 November 2000 7:26 AM
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: Christchurch Thunderstorm
>
>
> Clyve from Geelong probably knows more about the story then me, but some
> years back two people were killed in a weak thunderstorm by a lightning
> strike at Geelong. They were sheltering in a picnic shed. The most
> significant thing was this was about the only sole lightning strike that
the
> storm put out.
>
> Michael
>
>
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 15 Nov 2000 18:42:53 -0500
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Weather Channel says POSSIBLE LOW In Coral Sea
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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Hi again, Patrick:

I understand concerning the limited availability of those models.  I was
looking here to see if I could locate something for you all.  But I have
been unsuccessful.

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Harald Richter <hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov>
Subject: aus-wx: OUTLOOK
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Australian Severe Weather Association)
Date: Wed, 15 Nov 2000 18:20:35 -0600 (CST)
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Greetings,

There is a strong extratropical cyclone approaching WA, and
our pesky little cut off low seems to have opened up in preparation
for its re-ingestion into the westerlies.
Broad weak troughiness dominates most of AUS with some kind 
of trough ``axis'' extending from the WA/NT border through
NE SA into W VIC.    

An area of cool stable rain-cooled air is centred right on Sydney
setting up a weak thermal gradient along the Cobar-Bourke axis. 
Dry slot is moving into NSW from the SW which might enhance 
that gradient over the next few hours.

A tongue of surface moisture is extending from W QLD down
to an area W of Cobar, which has northerly flow ATM. 
Broken Hill has very weak easterly flow.

Model guidance is keeping the better mid-level flow E of
the  PBL moisture axis.  I would think the eastern edge 
of the really good PBL moisture has the 
best chance of seeing better flow if the model is anywhere 
close to the real world today.
Staying too far east (for the predicted/hallucinated flow) 
could cause problems due to a cooler PBL and higher surface 
pressures.

Good Luck,  Harald

-- 
-------------------------------------------
Harald Richter
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory
1313 Halley Circle
Norman, OK 73069, U.S.A.
ph.:    (405) 366-0430
fax:    (405) 579-0808
email:  hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov
web:    http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/~hrichter
-------------------------------------------
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Sender: mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.6 (32)
Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2000 11:38:49 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Miguel de Salas <mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Eye of the storm
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi there!

Here for some more bagging of that dreadful ABC program...

Did anyone notice how many times the narrator (as well as the fliers and
ads) of 'Eye of the Storm' said climactic when she meant climatic???

As far as I know 	climatic  ---> climate
			climactic ---> climax!

I couldn't see any orgasms (climaxes) when the narrator mentioned about
these supposedly climactic conditions... :)


Another question: I have always understood that the N-S movement of the
monsoon, and the ITCZ had more to do with the change of seasons and the
earth's tilt respective to the sun that with updrafts in the desert and
cold air subsidence in the Himalayas... As far as I know there were
by-products of the monsoon, not the opposite. Anyone care to enlighten me?

Miguel de Salas
mailto:mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au

 School of Plant Science,
 University of Tasmania,
 GPO Box 252-55, Hobart,
 Tasmania, Australia, 7001.


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X-Originating-IP: [141.132.128.10]
From: "Leslie Baxter" <mrt1000 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Vic Explosion part TOO!
Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2000 01:45:50 GMT
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<x-flowed>

Hey folks, well it's about to explode yet again.

Just had a nice storm go through, many CGs, pissed down for about 20mins of 
solid rain, unknown as to how much rain (Hmmmm wonders when the BoM will 
send some details on getting rain gauge?)

I think more is on the way, streaming in from the north, more Towers going 
up, looking good. If anyone wants to come to ballarat and have a look, ring 
me on 5334 1364, loacl knowledge is good knowledge.

Les

_________________________________________________________________________
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</x-flowed>
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2000 13:37:06 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith <carls at ace-net.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Eye of the storm
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Miguel and all

>Hi there!
>
>Here for some more bagging of that dreadful ABC program...
>
>Did anyone notice how many times the narrator (as well as the fliers and
>ads) of 'Eye of the Storm' said climactic when she meant climatic???
>
>As far as I know 	climatic  ---> climate
>			climactic ---> climax!
>
>I couldn't see any orgasms (climaxes) when the narrator mentioned about
>these supposedly climactic conditions... :)

Given the programs focus on the sex lives of various creatures, perhaps
climactic may be correct?

>
>Another question: I have always understood that the N-S movement of the
>monsoon, and the ITCZ had more to do with the change of seasons and the
>earth's tilt respective to the sun that with updrafts in the desert and
>cold air subsidence in the Himalayas... As far as I know there were
>by-products of the monsoon, not the opposite. Anyone care to enlighten me?

I think this is more of a many factors contributing type situation.

The ITCZ location ideally would follow a sinusoidal yearly pattern based on
the declination of the Sun with a bit of a delay, which is essentially your
point, however the actual location is very much dependant on the location
and density of various airmasses, hence the real situation does depend to
some extent on other factors, for example, a heat low over Northern
Australia combined with High pressure cell over part of Asia including the
Himalayas pushing it further South.

This is an oversimplified viewpoint, as there are also other influences,
such as the Madden-Julian pulse, that seem to influence it's location.

I think the ITCZ location causes and effects question is one that could do
with a great deal more research to improve future tropical weather
forecasting.

>Miguel de Salas
>mailto:mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au
>
> School of Plant Science,
> University of Tasmania,
> GPO Box 252-55, Hobart,
> Tasmania, Australia, 7001.
<snip>

Regards,
Carl.


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From: "Karratha Weather Observations" <karrathaweather at wn.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC 02s going for round 2 !
Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2000 11:44:05 +0800
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Hi Simon and all...

Unfortunately if EX TC 02s reforms at it's present location you will not win
the TC bidding competition because it is west of 90E which is outside WA's
TC waters.  But If it continues it's current eastward movement there is the
possibility it could reform in WA TC waters :)

Latest JTWC advisory continues to go for good conditions for TC development
in the next 24hrs even though convection has decreased some what the Low
Level Circulation Centre has become better organised...
http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil:7777/tc_thumbs/20001116.0231.gms-5.vis.x.NONAME
.02S.jpg - Latest VIS image
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/satimages/gmsc.jpg - IR image
http://hydra.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/shemi/images/xxirgms5wn.GIF -
Colour enhanced IR image

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/151800Z/161800Z NOV 00//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150721Z NOV 00//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S2
82.9E9, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S7 84.5E7 EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DECREASE IN CONVECTION
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. LATEST UPPER-LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS INDICATE
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN AREA OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND. A RECENT
QUICKSCATT PASS INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE
SYNOPTIC DATA SHOW NO GREATER THAN 25 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. THE AREA IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 150730) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: JEFFRIES/WHITCOMB/BALDINGER/CUTMAN//

Regards

JJ
www.karrathaweather.org
cyclone at karrathaweather.org
ICQ 6187498

----- Original Message -----
From: "Simon" <borgprocrast at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, November 16, 2000 5:57 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: TC 02s going for round 2 ! and NT Severe Storms


> Hey, do I win? I said Nov 17th :)
> - Simon
>
> (I'm calling 02 "Astrid" BTW)


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Wed, 15 Nov 2000 21:09:15 -0800 (PST)
From: Avo Ohanian <stormchaser_1 at excite.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: CB radios
X-Mailer: Excite Inbox
X-Sender-Ip: 137.111.13.32
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Sorry for the delayed response, haven't looked at my Excite mail for a
while.......

An additional advantage is that UHF and HF CB Radios do not have to be
licensed anymore. The Spectrum Management Authority dropped licensing issues
around 5 years ago (I think). Maybe I shall have to tune the scanner to HF
CH33 whenever I am on my country drives. Hmmmmmm :-) 

Avo Ohanian
IS Support
Macquarie University





_______________________________________________________
Tired of slow Internet? Get  at Home Broadband Internet
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2000 15:59:34 +1100
From: David Carroll <davidkc at nia.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.74 [en] (Win98; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: [Fwd: Amazing weather web-sites]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Found this on a Newsgroup, some of you maybe interested..

Dave

Path: nsw.nnrp.telstra.net!news.syd.connect.com.au!news.bri.connect.com.au!news.mel.connect.com.au!newshub1.rdc1.nsw.optushome.com.au!news1.optus.net.au!optus!intgwpad.nntp.telstra.net!newspump.monmouth.com!newspeer.monmouth.com!cpk-news-hub1.bbnplanet.com!news.gtei.net!news.maxwell.syr.edu!nntp2.deja.com!nnrp1.deja.com!not-for-mail
From: roddymansfield at my-deja.com
Newsgroups: alt.talk.weather
Subject: Amazing weather web-sites
Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2000 08:46:45 GMT
Organization: Deja.com - Before you buy.
Message-ID: <8uj11l$kbk$1 at nnrp1.deja.com>
NNTP-Posting-Host: 195.167.146.192
X-Article-Creation-Date: Sat Nov 11 08:46:45 2000 GMT
X-Http-User-Agent: Mozilla/4.0 (compatible; MSIE 5.01; Windows NT 5.0)
X-Http-Proxy: 1.1 x68.deja.com:80 (Squid/1.1.22) for client 195.167.146.192
X-MyDeja-Info: XMYDJUIDroddymansfield
Xref: nsw.nnrp.telstra.net alt.talk.weather:7929

I am a television producer producing daily extreme weather reports
for 'Network of the World' televison based in London.

I am looking for the most amazing, unique, interactive weather web-
sites on the net...the more interactive and exciting the better.

Homepages are best, but corporate sites are also needed.
The sites will become the subject of regular filmed features and will
also be featured on our own site: http://www.now.com

We are also looking for the most amazing weather photographs ever
taken...lightening, tornado's hurricanes etc. Again, 'amateur' pictures
very welcome. These will also be featured on the program and the
authors interviewed.

I can be contacted at RMansfield at uk.now.com



Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/
Before you buy.

From: "bussie" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "weather list" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: 3D cloud sequence
Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2000 18:43:44 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Just watched the Seven News (Melb edition), where do they get the 3D cloud
sequence from. Well I like watching it anyway :-))
Bussie (NE Victoria)

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "The Weather Co." <twc at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: 3D cloud sequence
Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2000 19:42:53 +1100
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

They create the sequence themselves using an Earthwatch weather graphics
system.
____________________
The Weather Company
Level 2, 7 West Street
North Sydney 2060
Phone: (02) 9955 7704
Fax: (02) 9955 1536
http://www.theweather.com.au
----- Original Message -----
From: bussie <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: weather list <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Thursday, November 16, 2000 6:43 PM
Subject: aus-wx: 3D cloud sequence


> Just watched the Seven News (Melb edition), where do they get the 3D cloud
> sequence from. Well I like watching it anyway :-))
> Bussie (NE Victoria)
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0
Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2000 22:32:01 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Recall inflow band - finally got the pictures up
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

In light of soon joining the chase teams on 3 weeks of fun, and also not 
having much time, I finally got some time to scan the pictures of the major 
outbreak a couple of weeks ago. Even if you don;t have much time, browse 
through the following 4 links for your favourites. Of course, you will get 
to see the full lot of pictures of the supercell that developed an inflow 
and probably had three mesocyclones within the one storm.

I hope you enjoy nature as much as I did that day!!!

http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/new/jd.html

http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/new/jd02.html

http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/new/jd03.html

http://australiasevereweather.com/photography/photos/new/jd04.html


-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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</x-flowed>
X-Sender: paisley2 at mail.chariot.net.au
Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2000 19:28:11 +0930
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Phil Bagust <paisley2 at chariot.net.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Good Luck TD2K People!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Good luck to all on the chase, kick photographic butt, and whatever your
LI's and CAPES are, send a little our way....please.

>From a storm cheated SA


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