From: "McDonald" To: Subject: aus-wx: Video captures are up!!!! Date: Sat, 21 Oct 2000 09:05:42 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Back again,
 
Well I finally got to bed at 3am after going back to some of the captures and playing with the colour and contrast and two people (not including me) think that one is definitely a night time tornado.  Jane O'Neill was kind enough to put the images onto a web page for me (THANKS!!!!) at 7am this morning. I'll leave the rest up to your imaginiation.......HERE THEY ARE....
 
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/18_10_00am.htm
 
The first capture was looking SW from Diggers Rest as were the last 4 at the bottom.  It is the two on the right at the bottom which show the "tornado"? with the bottom of the two being the colour enhanced one.  The rest of the lightning captures are taken from my front porch at 4:20am on Thursday morning after the cell passed over my house dumping 1.2cm hail and 10mm in 6 minutes.
 
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/19_10_00am.htm

These captures were taken on Thursday afternoon when all the action was going on every where.  There are 3 captures of a cone-shaped funnel which was taken from Somerton looking NW (about 2km away) and also 3 captures of what may be another tornado which was taken from Mt Ridley (Craigieburn) looking S about 5-7km - the quality of these looks poor but its more due to the rain between me and the tornado.  You can see a lowering at cloud base level and on the video the column of condensation? looks to go up and then wrap into the lowering.  All of the above will be shown at the next Vic ASWA meeting so be there or don't see it...hehe.

Please note that all images are copyright to Andrew McDonald and cannot be used without my permission.

Regards,

Andrew McDonald.

From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: aus-wx: Very cool, wet in NT To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Sat, 21 Oct 2000 17:20:32 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > It has been very cool and wet today in the Northern Territory. > Darwin, with 19.0, equalled its October record minimum this > morning, and at last report had only risen to 21.1. This is > a long, long way below their October record low maximum > of 26.7 (indeed, it's still below the all-month record of > 21.7), although with the caveat that it will rise very quickly > if the cloud breaks before 9 tomorrow. > > More exceptional is Tennant Creek, which has been hovering > on 12 all day. Their October record minimum is 11.6 (it was > 11.6 at 1000 and 1030, but I don't know if it dropped > lower in the interim), and their lowest October maximum is > 18.5 (although they have had 15.5 in November). Their > all-month record is 11.7. Update on all of these. Of the five NT sites I keep close track of, three set October record low maxima yesterday, with 15 at Tennant Creek (previous record 18.5), 19 at Victoria River Downs (22.0) and 25 at Darwin (26.7). Records were also set outside the NT at Halls Creek (22, 23.1) and Camooweal (17, 22.4). Note that, at most of these sites, the November record is lower courtesy of the extraordinary 1981 event (although all of the observations above except for Halls Creek's are also below November records). I don't think the peak anomaly (-21.0 at Brunette Downs) would live up to the levels of November 1981 or February 1949 (when Boulia had a max of 14.4). Obviously the software Climate Analysis use to do their daily anomaly maps bottoms out at -20 because there's a nice big hole in the central NT... No NT station reached 30 yesterday, not a common occurrence for October! (we're having system problems today so I can't check whether it is unique). Also daily rainfall records for October at Camooweal (85mm) and Brunette Downs (75mm). The max temps to 1500 today are also impressively low in places, especially western Queensland, although some went lower in 1950. Most models show a low forming in inland southern NSW on Monday, and the GASP precipitation progs (the only ones I've seen so far) show some serious rain attached (two-day totals of 150mm over the Alps) which could make for some flooding problems downstream, especially as Lake Hume is already at 100% and spilling heavily. I'll be in Albury next week and will have the chance to see any action that develops. Blair Trewin +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Les" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: WX: & OFFTOPIC:Test Date: Sat, 21 Oct 2000 20:35:43 +0100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Sent: Saturday, October 21, 2000 3:12 AM Subject: aus-wx: WX: & OFFTOPIC:Test > Weather: Victoria Recieved here: 1708gmt. Les +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2000 07:15:14 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: Australian Weather Mailing List , wx-chase Subject: aus-wx: October 14 Tornadic Squall Line Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi all! Ok - my far-too-close encounter with a rain-wrapped tornado is up at: http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/14/Oct14.html I have no idea if this will be a permanent URL, depends what the owner of BSCH wants to do. Anyway - enjoy! -- Anthony Cornelius Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 14 Kinsella St Belmont, Brisbane QLD, 4153 Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Peter Matters" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: Video captures are up!!!! Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2000 07:38:29 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Andrew, the pics are pretty impressive! What are the views like from Mt Ridely? What is the access route?
Cheeers Peter Matters (Broadford)
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of McDonald
Sent: Saturday, 21 October 2000 09:06
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Video captures are up!!!!

Back again,
 
Well I finally got to bed at 3am after going back to some of the captures and playing with the colour and contrast and two people (not including me) think that one is definitely a night time tornado.  Jane O'Neill was kind enough to put the images onto a web page for me (THANKS!!!!) at 7am this morning. I'll leave the rest up to your imaginiation.......HERE THEY ARE....
 
 
The first capture was looking SW from Diggers Rest as were the last 4 at the bottom.  It is the two on the right at the bottom which show the "tornado"? with the bottom of the two being the colour enhanced one.  The rest of the lightning captures are taken from my front porch at 4:20am on Thursday morning after the cell passed over my house dumping 1.2cm hail and 10mm in 6 minutes.
 
http://www.stormchasers.au.com/19_10_00am.htm

These captures were taken on Thursday afternoon when all the action was going on every where.  There are 3 captures of a cone-shaped funnel which was taken from Somerton looking NW (about 2km away) and also 3 captures of what may be another tornado which was taken from Mt Ridley (Craigieburn) looking S about 5-7km - the quality of these looks poor but its more due to the rain between me and the tornado.  You can see a lowering at cloud base level and on the video the column of condensation? looks to go up and then wrap into the lowering.  All of the above will be shown at the next Vic ASWA meeting so be there or don't see it...hehe.

Please note that all images are copyright to Andrew McDonald and cannot be used without my permission.

Regards,

Andrew McDonald.

From: "Phil Smith" To: Cc: Subject: Re: aus-wx: WX: & OFFTOPIC:Test Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2000 07:12:19 +0800 Organization: Doctor Disk X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Received in Hong Kong by my server 22-10-00 at 00:17 HKT (=0317AEDST) and downloaded and read by me at 0631 (=0931AEDST). I thought I had nothing from the list for many hours yesterday, but had assumed it was problems with my local server. However after a message from McDonald received here 20-10-00 at 2248, the next message from Don White was received at 22-10-00 at 0004 (HKT=GMT+8) so nothing for the whole of 21-10-00. From 0004 to 2000 there were 11 messages in the "wee small hours" (0300 to 0500 AEDST) then a break until 0448 (0748AEDST) when all you blokes down there would've been getting up. Phil <>< Phil Smith Director Doctor Disk Limited Unit B, 4th Floor, Imperial Heights Belair Gardens, Shatin, NT HONG KONG S.A.R. People's Republic of China Phone +852 2646 4672 Fax +852 2637 4006 E-mail: phil at drdisk.com.hk Home e-mail: drdisk at hktrade.com Web: http://www.drdisk.com.hk Typhoon Information: http://www.drdisk.com.hk/cyclones.htm ----- Original Message ----- From: "Jane ONeill" To: "Aussie-wx" Sent: Saturday, 21 October 2000 10:12 Subject: aus-wx: WX: & OFFTOPIC:Test > If this actually makes it to the list could someone(s) email me directly > to let me know please - and also what time you get it. I'm not getting > any mail from the list & am trying to work out why. > > Sent at 1212AEDST > > Many thanks, > > Jane > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Ben Quinn" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: October 14 Tornadic Squall Line Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2000 09:19:24 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Everyone, For those that want to link to Anthonys report, the permanent URL is http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/storm-chasing/2000/14-10/anthony/index.html I have also uploaded my chase report for this day, which can be found at: http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/storm-chasing/2000/14-10/ben/index.html 21mm in the guage here to 9am this morning, most of which probably fell from the shower pictured below, which had quite a stormy looking rain curtain when the sun came out http://bsch.simplenet.com/ben/morning.jpg ----- Original Message ----- From: "Anthony Cornelius" To: "Australian Weather Mailing List" ; "wx-chase" Sent: Sunday, October 22, 2000 7:15 AM Subject: aus-wx: October 14 Tornadic Squall Line > Hi all! > > Ok - my far-too-close encounter with a rain-wrapped tornado is up at: > > http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/14/Oct14.html > > I have no idea if this will be a permanent URL, depends what the owner > of BSCH wants to do. > > Anyway - enjoy! > -- > Anthony Cornelius > Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association > (ASWA) > (07) 3390 4812 > 14 Kinsella St > Belmont, Brisbane > QLD, 4153 > Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm > reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Nick Sykes" To: Subject: aus-wx: Weather: SE Australia Rain Event Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2000 11:43:35 +1100 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey All For the last couple of days I have been watching with interest the large cloudband over the NT/QLD move south. It now appears highly likely that quite a major rain event will develop over the SE in the coming days. The water vapour image shows plentiful moisture. The models agree with most of them predicting substantial rain for Victoria, 50mm+ in many locations. Especially worrying is the heavy precipitation forecast for the NE of Victoria. This area has had good rains over the last months and the ground is well saturated. Some flood warnings are already current. We could see some decent flooding in that region if this system hits with it's full potential. Here in Melbourne today it is very warm, temps already getting into the mid 20's with scattered high cloud. DP's are high for this part of the world, the mid teens. With the continued infeed of tropical moisture and a nice trough, then low forecast to develop over Victoria, heavy rain is looking likely. The BOM has just issued a fruit growers alert and have heavy falls on the forecast now. Issued at 1050 on Sunday the 22nd of October 2000 Warnings Grape growers in the Mallee, Wimmera, Northern Country and North Central districts are advised that forecast weather conditions may lead to an outbreak of Downy Mildew overnight Monday. Warnings of minor flooding are current for the King and Ovens Rivers and for the Murray River upstream of Lake Hume. A warning of minor rural flooding is current for the Murray River in the Corowa district. Victoria Sunday: A fine mild to warm day with areas of high cloud. Patchy rain developing in the northwest tonight. Light to moderate northeast to northerly wind and afternoon coastal seabrezes. Monday: Rain and isolated thunderstorms, particularly in the north and west. Possible heavy falls. Mild. Tuesday: Rain and thunderstorms contracting to the east. Showers elsewhere on and south of ranges. Cooler, fresh southerly wind developing. Nick Sykes Location: http://seaustraliasatpics.virtualave.net/mylocation.gif +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Geelong Weather Services" To: Subject: RE: aus-wx: FUNNELS: Geelong 19/10/2000 Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2000 11:53:55 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook IMO, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0) Importance: Normal Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com A copy of the original footage used on Channel 9 has now been donated to ASWA/MSC by the owner. I guess eventually some stills will be published later. Parts of it are very sharp and clear and the clockwise rotation is clearly shown together with the rotating wall cloud. Lindsay Smail. -----Original Message----- From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com [mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of The Weather Co. Sent: Saturday, 21 October 2000 7:00 AM To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: FUNNELS: Geelong 19/10/2000 The best footage, I thought, was on Channel 9, I thought. The Channel 10 footage was quite distant but you could still see the funnel. - Paul G. ____________________ The Weather Company Level 2, 7 West Street North Sydney 2060 Phone: (02) 9955 7704 Fax: (02) 9955 1536 http://www.theweather.com.au ----- Original Message ----- From: Jane ONeill To: Aussie-wx Sent: Friday, October 20, 2000 10:43 PM Subject: aus-wx: FUNNELS: Geelong 19/10/2000 > Evening all, > > For your enjoyment (& to leave you breathless)...... > > Lindsay Smail (Geelong Weather Services) has collected photos (from 3 > different sources) of the funnels over Geelong yesterday. They can be > seen at > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/19_10_00g.htm > > I have also added more information to this page - it now includes 10am > MSL, CSIRO hires IR image, Eastern Australia IR image, JCU IR loop of SE > Australia > http://www.stormchasers.au.com/19_10_00.htm > > A report will be written on the events of the 19th October, 2000. Stay > tuned for lots more over the next few days & weeks. > > Many thanks to Lindsay & GWS for collecting & making these images > available to us (and with such incredible speed). > > Enjoy!! > > Jane > -------------------------------- > Jane ONeill - Melbourne > cadence at stormchasers.au.com > > Melbourne Storm Chasers > http://www.stormchasers.au.com > > ASWA - Victoria > http://www.severeweather.asn.au > -------------------------------- > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [203.54.90.236] From: "S G" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Unpredictable weather system/s Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2000 11:38:28 CST X-OriginalArrivalTime: 22 Oct 2000 02:08:29.0124 (UTC) FILETIME=[F8487840:01C03BCC] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I would really hate to be a weather forecaster at the moment there are way to many possiblities for where rain will actually fall over Australia over the next week or so and especially tomorrow. The system over the south east of the continent seems to be moving all over the place but with a general direction of south. Rain is likely over the east of SA and in the other south eastern states, it is possible that some rain could even reach Adelaide!!! If the cloud band was to wrap around the developing low pressure trough then the possiblity of that happening would even be higher and there is a lot of high cloud around today. This system is one where we could be lucky enough to bludge some rain off of it. Plus there is a very unstable and sharp middle level trough over eastern WA with a very pronounced area of thunderstorm cloud, god knows where this system could move and if it will weaken a lot. Anyway what ever happens it is all looking very interesting but nothing to get my hopes up about. There is meant to be another low pressure trough moving into SA mid-week but it too is too unpredictable to forecast properly. _________________________________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com. Share information about yourself, create your own public profile at http://profiles.msn.com. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2000 14:14:54 +1000 From: Jane ONeill X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win95; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Unpredictable weather system/s Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com S G wrote: > I would really hate to be a weather forecaster at the moment there are way > to many possiblities for where rain will actually fall over Australia over > the next week or so and especially tomorrow. The system over the south east > of the continent seems to be moving all over the place but with a general > direction of south. Rain is likely over the east of SA and in the other > south eastern states, it is possible that some rain could even reach > Adelaide!!! If the cloud band was to wrap around the developing low > pressure trough then the possiblity of that happening would even be higher > and there is a lot of high cloud around today. This system is one where we > could be lucky enough to bludge some rain off of it. Plus there is a very > unstable and sharp middle level trough over eastern WA with a very > pronounced area of thunderstorm cloud, god knows where this system could > move and if it will weaken a lot. S G, There are a number of possibilities with this system as you have already noted and it's certainly getting everyonepretty interested. There is also what appears to be a convergence line over the Gulf of Carpentaria which hasn't changed its position for the past 6 hours ( ftp://ftp.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/ausvlast.gif and ftp://ftp.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/ausmovie.gif ). It's located within an area of warm advection at 850hPa from the NW and appears to be part of the tropical infeed for the huge system that is affecting E Australia. Cloud top temperatures have decreased over the past 3 hours. Anyone know anyone on a fishing vessel up there who could give us a 'visual report' that's better than 'a few Cbs & NE - SE surface winds' ????? Robert Goler - you spend a lot of your time studying this area - any thoughts on this feature? The October Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report page http://www.stormchasers.au.com/oct2000.htm has been getting more active as the 'season' gets underway. Another page it's worth keeping an eye on is the Sydney Stormchasers' timely updates of recent storm activity to be found at http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/recentactivity/index.htm Melbourne this afternoon - T 26.1C ,DP 13.2C, 1012F hPa, NNE - NNW 2kmh, 8/8 Ci with Cu below....... Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: paulmoss at tpgi.com.au To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2000 12:53:47 +0930 Subject: Re: aus-wx: Unpredictable weather system/s X-mailer: Pegasus Mail for Win32 (v3.12a) Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi Jane - have noticed the "blob" over the Gulf. Have contacted the BOM here who say there is no chance as the cause of the instability is the upper Low combined with a very cold pool of air. There is also too much shear for any further development. They reckon it will dissapate by this arvo. Lets hope they may be wrong. Paul in Darwin. On 22 Oct 00, at 14:14, Jane ONeill wrote: S G wrote: > I would really hate to be a weather forecaster at the moment there > are way to many possiblities for where rain will actually fall over > Australia over the next week or so and especially tomorrow. The > system over the south east of the continent seems to be moving all > over the place but with a general direction of south. Rain is > likely over the east of SA and in the other south eastern states, it > is possible that some rain could even reach Adelaide!!! If the > cloud band was to wrap around the developing low pressure trough > then the possiblity of that happening would even be higher and there > is a lot of high cloud around today. This system is one where we > could be lucky enough to bludge some rain off of it. Plus there is > a very unstable and sharp middle level trough over eastern WA with a > very pronounced area of thunderstorm cloud, god knows where this > system could move and if it will weaken a lot. S G, There are a number of possibilities with this system as you have already noted and it's certainly getting everyonepretty interested. There is also what appears to be a convergence line over the Gulf of Carpentaria which hasn't changed its position for the past 6 hours ( ftp://ftp.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/ausvlast.gif and ftp://ftp.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/ausmovie.gif ). It's located within an area of warm advection at 850hPa from the NW and appears to be part of the tropical infeed for the huge system that is affecting E Australia. Cloud top temperatures have decreased over the past 3 hours. Anyone know anyone on a fishing vessel up there who could give us a 'visual report' that's better than 'a few Cbs & NE - SE surface winds' ????? Robert Goler - you spend a lot of your time studying this area - any thoughts on this feature? The October Forecast Outlook, Discussion & Report page http://www.stormchasers.au.com/oct2000.htm has been getting more active as the 'season' gets underway. Another page it's worth keeping an eye on is the Sydney Stormchasers' timely updates of recent storm activity to be found at http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/recentactivity/index.htm Melbourne this afternoon - T 26.1C ,DP 13.2C, 1012F hPa, NNE - NNW 2kmh, 8/8 Ci with Cu below....... Jane -------------------------------- Jane ONeill - Melbourne cadence at stormchasers.au.com Melbourne Storm Chasers http://www.stormchasers.au.com ASWA - Victoria http://www.severeweather.asn.au -------------------------------- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ -+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au---------------------------- -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: Blair Trewin Subject: Re: Subject: aus-wx: Very cool, wet in NT To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2000 14:29:20 +1100 (EST) X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.5 PL2] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com > > Not so wet here in Alice Springs, with 2mm in the gauge for the last 24 > hours to 6pm. But bloody cold for October standards here. Only 19C, although > the forecasted temp was meant to be 26C. I'm glad I wasn't in Tennant Creek > though. Such low temps. are very unusual for Tennant Ck. Weather forecasting > and interpreting in the Alice Springs region can be very hard sometimes. For > some reason, the Bom figures come from the airport, about 10 km South of the > town centre, and on the other side of a high ridge. Although this doesn't > affect temp. readings, the rainfall totals can differ by huge amounts, so > often not really indicating conditions in the actual township. The weather > station used to be at the Post office in town, so averages and records over > the years are now not particularly accurate due to the different location. It's not so much a case of whether the figures are accurate or not - it's a case of having two figures for separate areas. A town site would be more representative of the town area, but the airport is almost certainly more representative of the wider region, because of the well-known effects of urbanisation on temperature (especially in a place that has grown as rapidly as Alice Springs has in the last 50 years). From what I know of Alice Springs' topography, I can't see any reason why the long-term rainfall in the town would be significantly different to that at the airport (and the figures would seem to bear this out - the long-term means at the Post Office and the airport are 279 and 281 mm respectively). Of course, individual storms can hit the airport and not the town, but the reverse also happens. There is a rainfall-only site called 'Alice Springs East', which I suspect is in the eastern suburbs of the town, although, being a weekend, I can't access the files for its exact location. The old post office site kept recording rainfall for a long time after it stopped being the main Alice Springs observing site in the 1940's, but appears to have closed for good in 1989. Blair Trewin +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Chris Daley" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Lightning ! Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2000 16:01:13 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Looking forward to seeing them Ben. I sat outside watching the lightning heading towards me that morning, but because of work (that naughty 4 letter word) I couldn't really go out to try to get some photos. Chris ----- Original Message ----- From: "Ben Jerrems" To: Sent: Saturday, October 21, 2000 1:11 PM Subject: aus-wx: Lightning ! > Hi all? > Here is an image i got at 1:30am Thursday morning, Just a small > sample will bring more at the next ASWA(vic) meeting. > > Ben-MSC. > _________________________________________________________________________ > Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com. > > Share information about yourself, create your own public profile at > http://profiles.msn.com. > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2000 16:31:38 -0700 From: Lindsay Pearce X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.05 [en] (Win16; I) To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC: ISP's and their reliability... Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Blackheath (Central Tablelands, NSW) G'day all, My new computer is arriving soon and I am looking at the option of "unlimited hours" on the net after using casual hours for years. There aren't many ISP's with local call access (now or coming soon) up my way with good monthly deals but I've found a few; AOL, OZEMAIL, TPG. Could any folk tell me (Privately) of their experiences with these companies, and if they are happy with them or indeed of others you know of? Please email me privately as I don't want to clog the list or criticise companies publicly. Thanks so much for your help and my apologies for posting a non-weather related email. Cheers, Lindsay Pearce +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Martin Davey" To: Subject: aus-wx: Adelaide to miss out on SE rain! Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2000 16:55:13 +0930 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6700 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hey SG! I don't think you would be happy with the latest forecast from the BOM. It predicts that the rain band moving south will just miss Adelaide to the east and there may be heavy falls in eastern border districts. This heavy rain will then extend across Victoria. Adelaide is expected to be mainly fine and the BOM seem to have warned us not to get too excited about the trough moving in from the west with fine or mainly fine weather predicted right through until next Sunday with the unsettled weather being confined to the western half of the State. Of course the BOM may be wrong! Martin +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: neumann.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2000 19:50:04 +1100 (EST) From: Robert Goler X-Sender: robert at neumann.maths.monash.edu.au To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: aus-wx: Re: Gulf of Carpentaria weather system Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com On Sun, 22 Oct 2000, Jane ONeill wrote: > ...Anyone know anyone on a fishing vessel up there who could give us a > 'visual report' that's better than 'a few Cbs & NE - SE surface > winds'????? > Robert Goler - you spend a lot of your time studying this area - any > thoughts on this feature? > Umm, nope, no thoughts whatsoever...sorry. As for synoptic scale weather systems/forecasts, I'm not even going to pretend that I know what I'm talking about. In this situation, it's me who's learning from you guys. The only thing I can add is that it's not sea breeze related :-) Cheers -- Robert A. Goler E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/ Department of Mathematics and Statistics Monash University Clayton, Vic 3800 Australia -- +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "bussie" To: "weather list" Subject: aus-wx: Rain for NE Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2000 20:13:46 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Nick wrote: For the last couple of days I have been watching with interest the large cloudband over the NT/QLD move south. It now appears highly likely that quite a major rain event will develop over the SE in the coming days. The water vapour image shows plentiful moisture. The models agree with most of them predicting substantial rain for Victoria, 50mm+ in many locations. Especially worrying is the heavy precipitation forecast for the NE of Victoria. This area has had good rains over the last months and the ground is well saturated. Some flood warnings are already current. We could see some decent flooding in that region if this system hits with it's full potential. You are right there Nick. The ground is very soft at present and most rivers around here are running right to the banks. What we got a few days ago the farmers around here were very happy. They reckoned they needed about an inch and I don't think it was too far off if I rememeber. Bussie (NE Victoria) +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: OFF TOPIC: Coming trip to NSW Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2000 21:17:02 +1000 Organization: X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Hi John You are certainly heading to one of the New South Wales hotspots. The upper Hunter Valley can turn on some great storms, like the Singleton hailstorm of December 1996, hail as large as cricket balls, and they were not bowled under armed either. The longer term NGP model has a trough nicely position of Friday afternoon, but it is early days and with luck it may delay or better still stall in the area. Michael > > I will be in your lovely country ( NSW) from next Wednesday so I hope that > Jimmy Degura and Michael Bath of the Australian Severe Weather Association > can organise some nice storms for my presence in your country. We are > planning to up the Hunter Valley inland from Newcastle to attend a wedding > next weekend so apart from a lovely fine day for the wedding, I want to > have a lot of those thunderstorms that you seem to get so easily what we do > have here in Christchurch whilst I and my wife are in New South Wales. > > > > > > > > John Gaul > NZ Thunderstorm Society > > NZTS - more than just thunder > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Originating-IP: [198.142.6.107] From: "Patrick Tobin" To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Rain for NE Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2000 10:32:27 GMT X-OriginalArrivalTime: 22 Oct 2000 10:32:27.0976 (UTC) FILETIME=[600B1C80:01C03C13] Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Having flown from Canberra to Melbourne yesterday morning, I share your concerns about possible further rain in NE Vic. I had a very good view of the Murray upstream of the Hume Reservoir (and the Hume itself - which certainly is full to the brim). The river was in what is called "minor" flood mode. Notwithstanding the use of the term 'minor', there were very large parts of the river that had broken its banks and inundating some fairly extensive areas of low lying land. Any significant amount of rain (say over 10mm) combined with further snow melt (yes there is still a lot left on the Alps) is going to create some real problems. We may also be in for a repeat of the stories about the soundness of the Hume dam (I can't recall whether they have finished the works that were undertaken to strengthen it a couple of years ago). Lake Eildon, by comparison, whilst holding a respectable amount of water (hard to tell from 10km when you are not used to making such judgements), has a fair way to go before becoming full. Patrick > >Nick wrote: >For the last couple of days I have been watching with interest the large >cloudband over the NT/QLD move south. It now appears highly likely that >quite a major rain event will develop over the SE in the coming days. The >water vapour image shows plentiful moisture. > >The models agree with most of them predicting substantial rain for >Victoria, >50mm+ in many locations. Especially worrying is the heavy precipitation >forecast for the NE of Victoria. This area has had good rains over the last >months and the ground is well saturated. Some flood warnings are already >current. We could see some decent flooding in that region if this system >hits with it's full potential. > >You are right there Nick. The ground is very soft at present and most >rivers >around here are running right to the banks. What we got a few days ago the >farmers around here were very happy. They reckoned they needed about an >inch >and I don't think it was too far off if I rememeber. >Bussie (NE Victoria) > _________________________________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com. Share information about yourself, create your own public profile at http://profiles.msn.com. +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Authentication-Warning: new-smtp1.ihug.com.au: Host p10-max41.syd.ihug.com.au [203.173.147.138] claimed to be storm.ihug.com.au X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.0 Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2000 21:47:25 +1000 To: Aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: aus-wx: Mudgee Supercell / Funnel Report and Illawarra supercell?? Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com I have finally completed my Mudgee report http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2000/docs/0009-03.htm This event produced at least one classic supercell followed by another storm (likely) supercell with a funnel cloud / (tornado??) It was hard to tell. We had to rely on the video stills for this event. Thanks for the patience of Matthew Piper in doing this - don't relax too much Matt, David has his to do!!! There is therefore more to come. On the other hand, I have had photos developed of the Mudgee event as well as the Wollongong supercell - well it looks to have a wall cloud underneath and this is confirmed by Matt Smith's funnel cloud. I also think that there is some resemblance between this Illawarra event and the March 9th event that produced a wall cloud and also occurred in the same area and also moved SE. http://australiasevereweather.com/storm_news/2000/docs/0003-01.htm ----------------------------------------- Jimmy Deguara Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher from Schofields, Sydney NSW Australia e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au Web Page with Michael Bath Australian Severe Weather Home Page http://www.australiasevereweather.com President of the Australian Severe Weather Association http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------