From: "Paul Mossman" <paulmoss at tpgi.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: OFFTOPIC - Visitor
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 23:29:37 +1000
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Hey Matt Pearce & all....

I am in Sydney staying at the Carlton Crest Hotel.

Sorry didnt contact - but after Adelaide I gave up trying to organise
anything..............................

BUT if there are Sydneysiders interested in doing sumthing - I am here Til
thursday arvo.

Paul .
----- Original Message -----
From: "Pearce" <rpearce2 at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, October 15, 2000 9:48 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms & Rain in Darwin


> Hi all,
>
> Great to hear about some of the action up north...
>
> I must stress that the Sydney stuff is very much a chance, and that Sydney
> will not be the prime development area if anything develops by the looks
of
> it. It looks to me like around the Central Tablelands area will be the
best
> bet as mentioned in my first email, and maybe actually a bit further north
> if you can get that far. Northern Tablelands should be OK too. I will add
> that none of this is certain, as it never is with these types of systems.
I
> only mention it because I do have a real soft spot for weak southerlies
> moving up the NSW coast, especially when they are expected to be
associated
> with upper level troughs.
>
> Keep an eye on it...
>
> Matt
>
> PS - Paul where are you????????? And why didn't you contact anyone?!?!
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 23:21:59 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: 2000:The Year of the Baroclinic Leaf, but not the Year of 
 the ECL
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Jane,

In the words of John Woodbridge, could you please explain to us mere
mortals *exactly* what a baroclinic leaf is?  I have an idea, but still
struggle with the concept...

AC

Jane ONeill wrote:
> 
> Afternoon all,
> 
> Another baroclinic leaf in WA??????
> 
> Surface systems respond to the conditions, systems & flows in the upper
> atmosphere don't they???? I always tend to look at everything else first
> before I look at the MSL, work out what I think is happening in all
> levels (except the surface) of the atmosphere from the analyses (not the
> models), and then surprise myself by discovering that the MSL reflects
> what's happening in the upper atmosphere - does this mean I'm doing this
> the right way?
> 
> Along with the surface low that has developed in WA, an 850hPa low
> developed to the NW of the area of middle & upper level cloud that is
> apparent on the infrared images. There is a strengthening 300hPa jet to
> the north of the area  & a (weak?) 300hPa trough just to its SW.
> Steering flow seems to be from the NW - does this mean that it will
> track across Adelaide - and then Victoria?
> 
> Temperature at an altitude of 848m this afternoon at 4pm was 5.8C -
> small hail east of Warburton to the NE of Melbourne at 2.30pm - aaah,
> October in Victoria!!  Some photogenic high based showers over the
> eastern suburbs a while ago.
> 
> Jane
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> 
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> 
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
> 
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Met Support 3" <twc at theweather.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Baroclinic Leaf Definition
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 08:31:58 +1100
Organization: The Weather Company
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2920.0" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi Anthony and all,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The definition of a baroclinic leaf is the 
following:-</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>an elongated cloud pattern formed within the jet 
stream zone associated with marked baroclinicity (i.e. strong thermal contrast). 
The boundary (in satellite imagery) on the polar air-mass side of the 
development is well defined, and has the look of a 'stretched-out' "S" shape. 
The downstream/warm air-mass edge is less distinct. This feature represents the 
initial (or frontogenetic) stage of a system development, certainly in the 
mid-troposphere, and often (but not always) at the surface. Not all baroclinic 
leaves lead to marked cyclogenesis although they will be the first stage of 
such.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>By the way I got&nbsp;this definition from the 
following&nbsp;website which explains a whole lot of meteorological 
terms.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://www.booty.demon.co.uk/metinfo/glossary.htm">http://www.booty.demon.co.uk/metinfo/glossary.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Matthew Piper</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The Weather Company<BR>Meteorological Support 
Desk<BR><A 
href="http://www.theweather.com.au">http://www.theweather.com.au</A></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Pearce" <rpearce2 at bigpond.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: FORECAST: Possibly interesting Monday in NSW
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 08:46:30 +1000
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Hi Jonty,

The forecast is for the chance of late showers. I am also sure that the BoM
are aware of the situation, but all I am saying is that you wouldn't know
this based on their publicly issued forecast. This email was not meant as an
attack on the BoM, but merely a discussion of the potential weather
situation later today. Maybe I should have labelled the email DISCUSSION as
opposed to FORECAST. I don't believe you can ever be 100% sure about
anything hence why I disagree with the use of 0% and 100% percentages in
forecasts, but there is nothing wrong with using the words "chance of". If
the BoM decided that the risk was suitably minimal of anything at all in NSW
this afternoon then that is fine, and it shouldn't go on a public
forecast...I respect that. Maybe the NSW BoM could introduce something along
the lines of the Qld BoM's policy notes, an excellent service, whereby the
situation is discussed and the pros and cons of certain systems producing
rain/storms could be made known. This would be separate to the publicly
issued forecasts on radio and TV but could be used by those who want more of
an informed opinion into the weather setup.

Just a thought...

Matt

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Blair Trewin <blair at earthsci.unimelb.edu.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NSW Rain
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 10:21:17 +1100 (EST)
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> 
> An area of very heavy rain with the trough line that passed through on
> Friday night in NE NSw. The area extended from Murrurundi in the upper
> Hunter with 80 mm across the Liverpool Range to Quirindi - 97 mm, Keeva
> 83 mm and further to the NW, Upper Horton 88 mm.  I hear unofficial
> reports to 120 mm SW of Quirindi.
> The 97 mm in 24 hours at Quirindi must be at least in their top decile
> of daily falls. Anyone (Blair???) have any way of chacking up on this?
> 
> Don W

None of the sites I looked at have got anywhere near all-time records
(mostly in excess of 120mm), but Quirindi (97, previously 88.6),
Barraba (80.2/74.4) and Tamworth (72/67.6), at least, have set
October records.

Also keeping an eye on northern WA. You may recall that Kalumburu
and Kuri Bay were within striking distance of the WA record for a
calendar year (2169.4 mm) after last summer's wet season; at the
end of April Kuri Bay had 1860.0 mm and Kalumburu 1764.5 mm. Both
sites got less than a millimetre in the five months May-September,
but the early activity in the tropics had given Kalumburu 34.2 mm
for October up until yesterday, and the nearby AWS got 16.6 yesterday
which suggests a total of around 50. This means Kuri Bay (6.6 so far
this month) needs around 300 mm, and Kalumburu around 350, depending
on exactly what yesterday's figures come in at. Kuri Bay's mean for
the two months November-December is 179 mm, and Kalumburu's 272 (to
say nothing of what's left of October), so both sites have some
chance of topping the record. Kimberley Coastal Camp, in between 
the two, is even closer to the record at 1987.8 mm, but there are
some irregularities in the data from there that I want to investigate
before making further pronouncements on that site.

Blair Trewin
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From: "Leslie Baxter" <mrt1000 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Vic Wx from the Weekend
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 00:09:17 GMT
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<x-flowed>

Hi People

Well winter was back and had bitten more than it could chew. We had on and 
off heavy heavy Rain Squalls and Cold air cells dumping down rain and some 
small hail. Took a couple of pics of the Cold Air Cells, wasn't real good 
for weather photography because of the low flying stratus getting in the 
road or the sun beign extremely bright and therefore all you'd see on the 
photo would be a white blur!

any how I hope that's the last of mr winter, but I somehow doubt it

Les
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</x-flowed>
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Nature's Forecasters?
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 09:59:33 +1000
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Hi Ben, Sel,

Curiously, I observed ants busily carrying eggs up to a raised log well off
the ground yesterday.  And I wondered whether they 'knew' something.  But
then again, it could more likely have just been a reaction to the 18mm of
rain on Sat morning, which may have dampened their ground based nest
somewhat.

Lot of congestus around this morning, and some weak cells off the coast,
which at this time of year is usually a harbinger of activity overland in
the afternoon.  Looking forward to this mornings skew-T.

John
>snip


> Hello everyone,
>
> Not sure how many of you believe this kind of thing, but...
>
> Queensland is in for a very wet, wet season if you believe the wildlife
> that live in the area. Sunday Mail reports that curator of Botanical
> Gardens and others have been noting:
>
> * Scrub Turkeys are building their nests higher and larger than they have
> for years.
>
> * Wood ducks have more chicks than normal this year.
>
> * Water dragon lizards have come out of hibernation and are mating earlier
> than normal.
>
> * The plovers are nesting earlier than normal and they have hatched chicks
> like never before.
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 11:27:35 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Miguel de Salas <mm_de at postoffice.utas.edu.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Snowing in Hobart
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Hi there!

Just looked out the window five minutes ago, and would you believe it, it's
snowing!!!

We haven't had any snow in Hobart all winter, and it decides to snow in
mid-october!!! :)

It's turned to sleet now, but it was exciting for a while!

Miguel, in Hobart, Tassie
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Brisbane radar
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 11:47:05 +1000
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Hi Anthony,

I agree with you that the broad scale radar overestimates something woeful.
I have seen it show pink for moderate drizzle.  On the other hand, for Mt.
Crosby anyway, I have found that rainfall I get is pretty consistent with
local radar.  Maybe it varies with distance from base??  One thing is for
sure, when local radar shows red, she is a severe SOB!

John.


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Storm off Ballina
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 11:52:56 +1000
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Hi all on the Gold Coast, Michael Bath

I can clearly see this storm on the SW horizon from Sumner.  Has an
overshoot way over the top of the Anvil now.

John.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Storm off Ballina
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 11:54:07 +1000
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Sorry I meant SE horizon obviously.

-----Original Message-----
From: John Woodbridge [mailto:jrw at pixelcom.net]
Sent: Monday, 16 October 2000 11:53
To: 'aussie-weather at world.std.com'
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Storm off Ballina


Hi all on the Gold Coast, Michael Bath

I can clearly see this storm on the SW horizon from Sumner.  Has an
overshoot way over the top of the Anvil now.

John.

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [210.8.232.5]
From: "Patrick Tobin" <pdtobin at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: UK floods - more rain
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 02:10:25 GMT
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<x-flowed>
For those interested, a new band of very heavy rain
is currently (1pm Eastern Aust Daylight time) moving
across the areas of SE UK that were affected by
floods late last week. This could result in more
flooding.

You can see it on the radar at

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/radar.shtml

Fine, sunny and 14 at 1pm in Canberra

Patrick

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</x-flowed>
From: "Ben Quinn" <benquinn at optushome.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx:  Cb pics (was Storm off Ballina)
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 12:45:39 +1000
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Hi John, Everyone

I just uploaded a couple of pics taken by Jason Rainforest a few hours ago -
i think the first pic is of a cell to the east of Brisbane (which is now
quite impressive - i took some digi cam pics but my zoom isn't quite big
enough), and the rest are of the Ballina cell

http://bsch.simplenet.com/products/recent-events-gallery/2000/16-10.html

Jason is out taking more pics now, and the above page will more than likely
be updated during the day

(remember you can click on the oversised thumbs to see full screen versions)



----- Original Message -----
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 16, 2000 11:54 AM
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Storm off Ballina


> Sorry I meant SE horizon obviously.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: John Woodbridge [mailto:jrw at pixelcom.net]
> Sent: Monday, 16 October 2000 11:53
> To: 'aussie-weather at world.std.com'
> Subject: RE: aus-wx: Storm off Ballina
>
>
> Hi all on the Gold Coast, Michael Bath
>
> I can clearly see this storm on the SW horizon from Sumner.  Has an
> overshoot way over the top of the Anvil now.
>
> John.
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Sun, 15 Oct 2000 18:31:36 -0700
From: Lindsay Pearce <writer at lisp.com.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Unsubscribing soon
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G'day all,

I will be unsubscribing soon from aussie-wx. Computer problems are the main
cause of this. It keeps crashing! No sure yet if I will buy another one or
repair this one. Time will tell.

Thanks, and happy weather watching :-)

Lindsay Pearce

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: WEATHER: Hobart
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 16:39:38 +1000
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Afternoon all,

Have saved a few images of Hobart after Miguel's email of this morning.

http://www.stormchasers.au.com/1016hobart.htm

Jane
---------------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com
 
Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com
 
ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
---------------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 17:24:53 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: less BoM MSL charts
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi all,

I asked the BoM why we don't get the 21z and 03z MSL analysis anymore. This 
was the response.

regards, Michael




>The National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre (NMOC) publishes Mean
>Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) charts for the standard observation times of 00,
>06, 12 and 18 UTC. These charts cover the Australian Region from between
>about 90 east and the dateline. The 18z and 00z have wind observations
>plotted on them from several locations in Australia and include hashing
>which shows the areas which had rainfall during the previous 24 hours.
>
>NMOC also publishes twice daily MSLP charts for the southern hemisphere.
>These are split into two regions, one (Pacific) covering the southern globe
>east of Australia, the second (Indian Ocean) covering the southern globe
>west of and including Australia. These charts are available for 00 and 12
>UTC each day.
>
>The coverage of each chart and the time spacing between the charts is chosen
>to be representative of the scale of weather systems depicted on the charts.
>This also applies to the spacing between the isobars on the charts
>themselves.
>
>All manually drawn charts are available from our web at
>http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/national/charts/
>
>More information about the charts and their availability can be found at
>http://www.bom.gov.au/nmoc/about_charts.shtml
>
>
>
>
>Regards,
>
>N.M.O.C. Help Desk
>Bureau of Meteorology,
>C/O PO Box 1289K
>Melbourne,    3001
>Australia.
>Email: webops at bom.gov.au
>Phone: 61 3 9662 2182
>Fax:   61 3 9662 1222
>URL:   http://www.bom.gov.au

  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [203.54.89.143]
From: "S G" <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Is anybody going to discuss the trough over WA
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 16:14:09 CST
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 16 Oct 2000 06:44:09.0613 (UTC) FILETIME=[7CB44BD0:01C0373C]
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<x-flowed>
Forecasters in SA are advising grape growers that heavy rains developing 
tomorrow night and into Wednesday morning could see some disease outbreaks 
occur to these plants.  Large amounts of tropical moisture are expected to 
be funnelled into this trough system which sets up some great possibilites 
of heavy rain and even thunderstorms over SA, hopefully in Adelaide.  Of 
course the system could fizz but I really doubt it now.  I can't believe no 
bosy has really discussed this system in detail yet.
_________________________________________________________________________
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</x-flowed>
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 06:11:44 +1000
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: cold night in Vic
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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BOM forecasting -2 for Wangaratta, Bendigo and Seymour and even 5 for
Melbourne - all low for mid October????

Don W
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Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 17:35:09 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath <mbath at ozemail.com.au>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Storm off Ballina (NE NSW)
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
Yes, impressive offshore Cbs from dawn to well into the mid afternoon. Much 
larger tops than what is usually observed in cooler months.

The largest complex formed SE of Ballina from mid morning and was much 
closer to the coast than the rest. A well defined anvil spread E and SE 
from this as it edged NE further out to sea.

I wasn't expecting any storms over the land today. We did get some 
congestus mid afternoon on the hills to the north, before they collapsed 
with the arrival of a SE wind.

regards, Michael


At 11:52 16/10/2000 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi all on the Gold Coast, Michael Bath
>
>I can clearly see this storm on the SW horizon from Sumner.  Has an
>overshoot way over the top of the Anvil now.
>
>John.
>
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  =============================================================
  Michael Bath      mailto:mbath at ozemail.com.au
  McLeans Ridges    http://australiasevereweather.com/
  NE NSW Australia  http://www.lightningphotography.com/
  ASWA Secretary    http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
  =============================================================

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</x-flowed>
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Cold snap on 9.10.1910 to 10.10.1910.!
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 18:40:17 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2722.2800" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi Blair and all.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Following our discussion at the Mel BOM.today I 
have dug up the info on this cold outbreak event.According to the report 
snowfalls were reported from Spencer Gulf to Gabo island commencing almost 
simultaneously during the afternoon of the 9.10.1910.with very cold conditions 
persisting on the 10th as well.Accompanying this cold outbreak were numerous and 
what appear to be severe thunderstorms with copious hail&nbsp;.The minimum 
reached in Adelaide was 36.8f which was a record to that time, all this 
information was gained from a book I found in the 50c bin at a church fund 
raiser titled The Climate and Weather of Australia 1913, by H.A.Hunt, Griffith 
Taylor and E.T. Quayle . regards Clyve Herbert.</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "bussie" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: cold night in Vic
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 18:46:25 +1000
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Will see what I get overnight here at Rutherglen, 40k north of Wangaratta,
and let you know. Although Wangaratta is always a bit colder than here, and
gets some heavier frosts etc in winter than I do.

Bussy (NE Victoria)

----- Original Message -----
From: "Don White" <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
To: "Aussie Weather" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 16, 2000 6:11 AM
Subject: aus-wx: cold night in Vic


> BOM forecasting -2 for Wangaratta, Bendigo and Seymour and even 5 for
> Melbourne - all low for mid October????
>
> Don W
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From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Is anybody going to discuss the trough over WA
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 18:47:53 +1000
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Hi S.G.
I noticed on Sunday there was a possibility of some development over W.A.,
especially with the intensification of a heat trough in that area ,also a
marked strengthening of the upper flow ahead of a long wave trough looked
promising,the B.O.M. in Melbourne have gone for a mostly light to moderate
rain event with falls around 5 to 10mm near the ranges. I think the system
has more potential than this with the risk of heavier falls, however at the
moment the inflow is a little on the dry side above 500hpa ,we will keep our
fingers crossed. regards Clyve H.
----- Original Message -----
From: S G <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 17, 2000 8:14 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Is anybody going to discuss the trough over WA


> Forecasters in SA are advising grape growers that heavy rains developing
> tomorrow night and into Wednesday morning could see some disease outbreaks
> occur to these plants.  Large amounts of tropical moisture are expected to
> be funnelled into this trough system which sets up some great possibilites
> of heavy rain and even thunderstorms over SA, hopefully in Adelaide.  Of
> course the system could fizz but I really doubt it now.  I can't believe
no
> bosy has really discussed this system in detail yet.
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
> Share information about yourself, create your own public profile at
> http://profiles.msn.com.
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Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 16:17:13 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob <jacob at iinet.net.au>
Subject: aus-wx: Severe Thunderstorm Advice - WA
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


IDW10W00
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY 
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE

PRIORITY
FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
Issued at 3:45 pm WST on Monday, 16 October 2000

People in the northern Goldfields are advised that there is a risk of severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. 

Storms may be accompanied by hail, flash flooding and strong winds that could
result in damage to property.

Satellite imagery at 3pm this afternoon shows a suspected severe thunderstorm
cell approximately 90 kilometres to the northwest of Leonora moving in a
southeasterly direction.  

The State Emergency Service advises that people should keep a lookout for
thunderstorms and if storms approach secure loose items, move vehicles under
cover, then stay indoors until the storms have passed. Driving conditions
may be
hazardous.

This Thunderstorm Advice will be updated at 6:00pm.

Jacob
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From: "bussie" <bussie at netc.net.au>
To: "weather list" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Frost?
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 19:31:27 +1000
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I recently read, and sent by someone, that the temp if I remember was 2C and
there was a frost. I always thought that a true frost was anything zero and
below. Anything above a zero reading would be a dew???? If I had for
arguments sake 1C here it may look like a frost but isn't technically a
frost as it hasn't fallen to zero or below. I say that because here this
morning it was 1C and there was light ice on the car windscreen, but
technically not a frost???
Calm overnight but the winds picked up about Mid morning gusting to about
20kmh about mid afternoon from the S/SW, and reached a top of 21.5C at about
3.15pm. Since 7pm not a breath of wind.

Bussie (NE Victoria)



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Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 20:24:36 +1000
From: Keith Barnett <weather at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Frost?
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I always record a frost if there is ice on the terrestrial minimum
thermometer, on dead grass clippings or the ground, or the car roof.
A frost is a frost, and if you see it I reckon it should be recorded as
such. The physics of frost formation/radiation etc are so complex we'd
never report anything if we stuck to the 'theory', which is often
contradicted by what is seen...
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Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 20:27:12 +1000
From: Keith Barnett <weather at ozemail.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win95; I)
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Conditions & Twister movie
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Did the truck avoid the moo cows as well?
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From: "John Graham" <gorzzzz at dingoblue.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Conditions & Twister movie
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 21:00:56 +1000
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----- Original Message -----
From: "Keith Barnett" <weather at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 16, 2000 8:27 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Conditions & Twister movie


> Did the truck avoid the moo cows as well?

I think it did.....is that what they call a moooooooooving
experience????????
John from Ballina

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From: "Martin Davey" <mdavey at health.on.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Is anybody going to discuss the trough over WA
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 19:21:47 +0930
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Hi SG,
          I have been in Kenya on holidays for 2 weeks. I was delighted on
returning to Adelaide today of the good forecast for tomorrow and Wednesday.
Interestingly today on arrival at Perth this morning from South Africa, it
was clear and warm in Perth but on arrival at Karlgoolie it was overcast and
raining and quite cool. The thick cloud mass persisted until about the head
of the  Bight so I am hoping for interesting things from this system.

Martin Davey.
----- Original Message -----
From: "S G" <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Tuesday, October 17, 2000 7:44 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Is anybody going to discuss the trough over WA


> Forecasters in SA are advising grape growers that heavy rains developing
> tomorrow night and into Wednesday morning could see some disease outbreaks
> occur to these plants.  Large amounts of tropical moisture are expected to
> be funnelled into this trough system which sets up some great possibilites
> of heavy rain and even thunderstorms over SA, hopefully in Adelaide.  Of
> course the system could fizz but I really doubt it now.  I can't believe
no
> bosy has really discussed this system in detail yet.
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
> Share information about yourself, create your own public profile at
> http://profiles.msn.com.
>
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X-Authentication-Warning: neumann.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 21:49:27 +1100 (EST)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
X-Sender: robert at neumann.maths.monash.edu.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Re: ...the trough over WA + funky li'l orange cloud
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

On Mon, 16 Oct 2000, clyve herbert wrote:

> ..... at the moment the inflow is a little on the dry side above
> 500hpa...

Here's my stupid question for the day. Does this mean that the flow above
500hPa is too zonal (east-west). That is, does this upper level flow need
to arc from the northwest to be moist?
I just looked at the model forecasts (200hPa) and it seems as though the 
flow is just zonal.


And did anyone else here in Melbourne see that funky little, bright orange
cloud to the west at around 7:50pm this evening? All the remaining clouds
were dark at this stage (small patches of altostratus (ie thin and flat) I
think), except for this bright orange patch. I initially thought it was
sunlight reflecting off a plane with contrail, but this didn't show
movement whilst I looked at it for about 10 mins. It dimmed as time went
on meaning that it was reflecting sunlight. Looking at it with my 8x21
binoculars showed very little structural change over the 10mins. It sort
of looked like a smoking pipe or sleigh (ie flat base with a curved end),
and was no more than 1/4 degree in length (or 1/8 the width of your thumb
when held at arms length), and was located about 4 degrees above the
western horizon (2x thumb width). It's small size and brightness made it
very eye-catching. I'm assuming it was some sort of cirrus as it must
have been high up to reflect the sunlight.


Cheers

--

Robert A. Goler        

E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

--

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Chris Daley" <jindivik at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Re: ...the trough over WA + funky li'l orange cloud
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 22:13:27 +1000
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I saw it, but I don't think it was 'The Cloud'.

Looked very impressive though, I watched it for a good 10-15 minutes.

I was out at Lilydale Airport and could see the planes coming and going from
Tullamarine.  Once the sunlight had stopped reflecting off it, I noticed
quite a large change in shape, from a long narrow cloud (not really long,
but..), down to a short round looking cloud.  Although it was hard to tell,
considering I was quite a distance from it.

Chris

----- Original Message -----
From: "Robert Goler" <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Monday, October 16, 2000 8:49 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Re: ...the trough over WA + funky li'l orange cloud


> On Mon, 16 Oct 2000, clyve herbert wrote:
>
> > ..... at the moment the inflow is a little on the dry side above
> > 500hpa...
>
> Here's my stupid question for the day. Does this mean that the flow above
> 500hPa is too zonal (east-west). That is, does this upper level flow need
> to arc from the northwest to be moist?
> I just looked at the model forecasts (200hPa) and it seems as though the
> flow is just zonal.
>
>
> And did anyone else here in Melbourne see that funky little, bright orange
> cloud to the west at around 7:50pm this evening? All the remaining clouds
> were dark at this stage (small patches of altostratus (ie thin and flat) I
> think), except for this bright orange patch. I initially thought it was
> sunlight reflecting off a plane with contrail, but this didn't show
> movement whilst I looked at it for about 10 mins. It dimmed as time went
> on meaning that it was reflecting sunlight. Looking at it with my 8x21
> binoculars showed very little structural change over the 10mins. It sort
> of looked like a smoking pipe or sleigh (ie flat base with a curved end),
> and was no more than 1/4 degree in length (or 1/8 the width of your thumb
> when held at arms length), and was located about 4 degrees above the
> western horizon (2x thumb width). It's small size and brightness made it
> very eye-catching. I'm assuming it was some sort of cirrus as it must
> have been high up to reflect the sunlight.
>
>
> Cheers
>
> --
>
> Robert A. Goler
>
> E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
> http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
>
> Department of Mathematics and Statistics
> Monash University
> Clayton, Vic 3800
> Australia
>
> --
>
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------


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Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 23:11:12 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Frost?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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<x-flowed>
I have seen frost on mornings where the screen temperature is 4C and I 
think on one occasion around 5 but that is Richmond's recorded temp so who 
knows what it was here. You must relaise that the temperature from about 1 
metre up in the screen is higher then the ground on frosty nights. So 
anything below 4C can yield frost when measured in the Stephenson Screen.

Jimmy Deguara  from Schofields

At 08:24 PM 16/10/00 +1000, you wrote:
>I always record a frost if there is ice on the terrestrial minimum
>thermometer, on dead grass clippings or the ground, or the car roof.
>A frost is a frost, and if you see it I reckon it should be recorded as
>such. The physics of frost formation/radiation etc are so complex we'd
>never report anything if we stuck to the 'theory', which is often
>contradicted by what is seen...
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 23:40:28 +1000
To: Aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: aus-wx: AMOS future meetings
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NEWSLETTER No. 2000/4

  October 2000


Sydney Centre Committee for 2000:

Chair           Milton Speer            BoM
Vice Chair      Elly Spark              BoM
Secretary       Michael Box             Uni of New South Wales
Treasurer       Angela Maharaj  Macquarie University
Committee       Julie Evans             BoM
                 Paul Graham             Macquarie University
                 Neil Holbrook           Macquarie University
                 Alan Williams           Sydney Uni (retired).

This Newsletter has much more information than usual, so please note carefully.
Item 1: October Meeting.
This month's meeting will actually feature two speakers  see next page, 
plus separate abstracts etc.
Item 2: November Meeting.
We will be having an addition (special) meeting in early November, at the 
Bureau (see over for details). This meeting will also be combined with our 
Annual General Meeting  a departure from past practices.
Item 3: Committee Positions, 2001.
We call now for your nominations for positions on the Centre Committee for 
2001. We would especially like to broaden our representation from just 
Universities and BoM.
Item 4: Christmas Function.
Although the Committee has yet to make its final decision, we are thinking 
of replacing our usual Christmas Function/Dinner, with the AGM attached, 
with a more relaxed, family oriented, affair. (Hence our AGM in November.) 
At present our main idea is a picnic etc at Observatory Hill on the evening 
of either December 7 or 8. As Centre finances are reasonably healthy, some 
subsidy may be provided. The Committee would very much appreciate hearing 
from members with their thoughts on this matter.




NOTICE OF OCTOBER SCIENTIFIC MEETING

The next meeting of the AMOS Sydney Centre will be held on Wednesday 25 
October, 2000
Venue: Macquarie University
             School of Earth Sciences
             Room 143, Building E5A, Level 1
             Parking is available on campus, but fees apply: be careful.
Time:   7:30 p.m. for a 7:45 p.m. start.

The program includes announcements, the current weather situation and 
forecasts for the week. This will be followed by a joint presentation by;
Paul McBain (replacing Rowena Morris) speaking on 'Project Vesta', and
Michael Katz speaking on Sydney Bush Fires.

The Committee will be dining with the speaker at the nearby "Middle of 
Nowhere" restaurant from about 6:00 p.m. Members and guests are welcome to 
join the Committee at the dinner. Please contact Angela Maharaj (02 
9850-8344/fax 9850-8420) or email amaharaj at penman.es.mq.edu.au if you wish 
to attend the dinner so that a booking can be made.
Some light refreshments will be available following the meeting. (There 
will be a $2 charge for non-AMOS members, other than students.)



NOTICE OF NOVEMBER SCIENTIFIC MEETING


AMOS Sydney will hold an additional scientific meeting on Wednesday 8 
November, 2000.

Venue:  Bureau of Meteorology
         Corner of 300 Elizabeth, and Foveaux Streets, Sydney.
Time:   6:00 pm.

The program will include the Annual General Meeting, and election of the 
Centre Committee for 2001 (nominations now called for). This will be 
followed by a presentation by
Dr. Tom Keenan who will speak on the First Forecast Demonstration Project 
of the World Weather Research Programme.
The Committee will dine afterwards, and members are invited to join us.
AMOS October Meeting  Wednesday, October 25; Macquarie University.
Room 143, Building E5A, 7:30pm.

Project Vesta
Paul McBain
Fire Management Officer, Newcastle Regional Office, State Forests
(and recently seconded to help fire fighting in the USA)

Project Vesta is a five year project to investigate the behaviour of high 
intensity bushfires in dry eucalypt forests with different fuel ages and 
understory vegetation structures. It is being conducted primarily by CSIRO 
in collaboration with the WA Department of Conservation and Land Management 
(CALM). The aims of the project are to quantify the changes in the 
behaviour of fires with the characteristics of high-intensity wildfires in 
dry eucalypt forests as fuels develop with age (time since last fuel 
reduction burn), and also to develop new algorithms describing the 
relationship between fire spread and wind speed, and fire spread and fuel 
characteristics, in order to develop a National Fire Behaviour Prediction 
System for dry eucalypt forests.


Sydney Bush Fires
Mike Katz
Fire Mitigation Officer
NSW Rural Fire Service

Bushfires are significant events which pose a major risk to the Australian 
community. Of most significance are those fires that are located on the 
main urban-bushland interface, adjacent to large tracts of contiguous 
bushland. These areas tend to contain large amounts of dwellings which are 
often inappropriately designed and located. However, the single biggest 
factor that affects the size and potential impact of any bush fire is the 
weather. "Blow-up" conditions  high temperatures, low relative humidity and 
strong winds  often lead to large-scale bush fires with large fire fronts 
impacting on developed areas.
Command and Control doctrine uses the Incident Control System (ICS) to 
manage the combating of bushfire incidents. Using ICS, a framework is 
established that covers the three areas of Operations, Logistics and 
Planning. The Planning function covers the key role of how to suppress the 
fire through the development of suppression strategies and tactics. In 
order for this to succeed, an understanding of weather systems and their 
impact on a fire is required. Mike will speak on the role of the weather 
expert within the ICS system, and how best this role can be filled. The 
transfer of knowledge to the fire managers and the fire fighters is a key 
objective in combating a bushfire. This knowledge needs to be provided in a 
manner that is conducive to its practical application, yet still not 
detracting from technical scientific detail.
AMOS (Special) November Meeting  8 November 2000; Bureau of Meteorology
*** Note: AGM at 6:00pm, followed by talk ***

First Forecast Demonstration Project of the
World Weather Research Programme
Dr. Tom Keenan.
Leader, Mesoscale Meteorology Research Group,
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre

In conjunction with the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Australia, the World 
Weather Research Programme is conducting its first Forecast Demonstration 
Project (FDP) over the 3 month period August-November 2000 in association 
with Sydney 2000 Olympic Games.  The emphasis is on nowcasting and 
state-of-the-art and complementary WWRP nowcast systems have been 
integrated within the infrastructure and forecast process of the BoM Sydney 
forecast office.  The aim is to enhance the provision of real time nowcast 
services provided by the BoM.  Nowcast systems include, Generating Advanced 
Nowcasts for Deployment in Operational Land-Surface Flood Forecasts from 
the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) and University of Salford, 
NIMROD developed by the UKMO, the National Center for Atmospheric Research 
Autonowcaster, the Warning Decision and Support System developed by the 
National Severe Storms Laboratory, the Canadian Radar Decision Support 
System developed by Atmospheric Environment Science in Canada, a 
polarimetric radar microphysical classification scheme developed by Bureau 
of Meteorology Research Centre and SpecPROG developed by Hydrology Branch 
of the BoM.
The BoM is providing enhanced mesoscale observations from Doppler and 
polarimetric radars, wind profilers and automatic weather stations.  These 
data are being linked with other standard sources and high-resolution 
numerical prediction information to feed the WWRP nowcast systems.  A 
web-based guidance system with an animation facility is providing 
information on severe weather occurrence, rainfall and wind changes to 
forecasters.  Enhanced nowcast products are being delivered to external 
clients using web-based techniques.  Direct interaction between forecasters 
and WWRP system experts is occurring in an operational mode.  Integral 
parts of the FDP involve the verification and impact studies under WWRP 
guidance to assess the value and impact of the improved services during the 
FDP.  A WMO sponsored Training Workshop is be held from 30 October to 10 
November 2000 in conjunction with the FDP to enable other WMO members to 
learn about the FDP activities.

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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