Date: Thu, 5 Oct 2000 12:33:49 -0400
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Well worth a read
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Jimmy Deguara wrote:
> For understanding the processes of tornadogenesis, I think this following

> paper is well worth the read
> 
> http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap07/tornado_form.html
> 

Jimmy and all:

IMO, I think this discussion in the above url is a little outdated and
overlooks the role of the Rear Flank Downdraft (RFD).  The tilting term of
the vorticity equation appears to be the primary source for the mid-level
mesocyclone.  The low level mesocyclone may owe its origin to baroclinic
vorticity generation (although this has come to be seriously questioned). 
The origin of the super cellular tornado itself appears to be closely
related to the RFD and its high potential vorticity.  However, that is
speculation based on VORTEX results and other observations.  The source of
that vorticity within the RFD is unknown although there are several ideas. 
The bottom line is that tornadogenesis within super cellular storms is
still a mystery.  The stretching term does appear to play an important role
in virtually all tornadoes but the magnitude of that term and its
importance appears to vary depending on tornado type and other factors. 
Because the residency time of air parcels within both the mesocyclone and
especially within the tornado is so short, conservation of angular momentum
is not believed to be important.

Convergence and vertical stretching of pre-existing low-level vertical
vorticity appears to dominate in "Land Spouts" and in the "gustnado".

Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: Harald Richter <hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: Notes on CAPE & LI
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Australian Severe Weather Association)
Date: Thu, 5 Oct 2000 14:28:21 -0500 (CDT)
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Hi list,

Michael typed:
> >I can only agree. I do use them as a guide and tend to often ignore the
> >actual figures. The models as I mentioned in my post about the weekends
> >potential are pretty useless in regards to Li's and CAPE unless you are
> >within 48 hours.

Especially CAPE (as the conceptually far more useful measure for 
atmospheric instability) is one representative of a whole class
of *sensitive* fields.  If a numerical model has a +2 C surface temperature 
error in its forecast,  the resulting surface temperature might be 
28 C instead of the real 26 C (NOT a big deal).  At the same time the CAPE
value might go from the real 0 J/kg to a model-predicted 1500 J/kg, and someone might 
race out the door expecting supercells because of this *amplified* model
error (a bigger deal).   

> >We have all seen storms in positive LI's and we have all seen -8 Li's and
> >nothing but dry cumulus.

Apart from the amplified model error,  there are some other issues.  CAPE and LI vary
significantly on the order of kilometres,  and even hypothetical error-free models would not 
predict that variation due to their resolution.   
Then there is a physical issue.  You could have a REAL LI of -10 at a location that 
is severely capped.  That situation has happened to me on too many
occasions, and I hate to be reminded of them -  yeah, yeah, I saw some
small Cu on those days.   


Jimmy typed:
> I can say that I have used the LI quite well as long as the models are 
> correct. 

The challenge for me is to guess *in advance* how correct the model might be.
You could look at run-to-run and inter-model consistency, I suppose.
But that whole sport is a guessing game for every honest forecaster
I have ever met.

I use CAPE (mainly observed) and those model fields (500 hPa flow, surface p ..)
that I can have some degree of confidence in.  If I see a LI of -10 in a 12 hour
model forecast I would be more inclined to give the observations 
in that area a second glance closer to the event.  I would NOT drive 500 km 
into a +12h model-fabricated CAPE bullseye.   

Cheers, Harald

-- 
-------------------------------------------
Harald Richter
NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory
1313 Halley Circle
Norman, OK 73069, U.S.A.
ph.:    (405) 366-0430
fax:    (405) 579-0808
email:  hrichter at enterprise.nssl.noaa.gov
web:    http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/~hrichter
-------------------------------------------
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 06 Oct 2000 07:58:51 +1000
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
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Subject: aus-wx: SA Aviation Forecast
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Morning all,

ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD, MOSTLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

Um, what will the rain drops be doing until then????

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: David Jones <D.Jones at bom.gov.au>
To: "Aussie Weather Digest (E-mail)" <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: pressure from satellites.
Date: Fri, 6 Oct 2000 08:33:23 +1000 
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>Ahhh...gimme some way of detecting surface pressures from space!! Now 
>there's an area worth researching!
>
>Cheers,
>Kevin from Wycheproof.

Kevin, believe it or not, there is research going on into this.. I'm not
100% sure about the accuracy, but when combined with conventional and other
satellite obs it can only improve the situation. The "latest" method I have
heard of looks at the emission of radiation from atmospheric oxygen which is
pressure dependent. Of course we are almost already there over the oceans
with the American quickscat satellite which detects surface winds over the
ocean based on how rough (wavy) the water is. For an example look at
http://www.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au/~awatkins/qsct.html Given modern day
analysis techniques, winds at the surface can provide a greatly improved
picture of the surface pressure, as a mater of course... As an aside, the
value of research is shown by the fact that the newly developed quicksat
winds have increased the predictability by models over the southern
hemisphere by a full day - ie day 7 forecast are now as accurate as day 6
forecast before this system etc. etc. I don't know how you value such a
thing but if it were not for government funding of research, we quite
possibly would never have this system...

Cheers from a downright balmy Melbourne...

David

                                                              
Dr David Jones                                               
                                                            
Climate Analysis Section                                   
National Climate Centre                                    
Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678   
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861 
Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425  
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au                               

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 06 Oct 2000 07:27:15 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at bigpond.net.au>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: Notes on CAPE & LI
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Hello Harald, Jimmy, Michael, Robert and all,

I enjoy discussions into atmospheric indicies!  And I think what I'm
about to say is going to perhaps bore people, as I think I've said it
before :)  I also mentioned a lot of this in my AGM presentation.

As Michael/Harald said, you can have a physical environment with LI's of
-8/-10 and get nothing but small Cu.  Capping is a significant problem. 
The other problem is upper level ridging.  One might wonder how warmer
air in the upper levels could give such high unstable factors - but it's
because sometimes you can get such a moist and hot PBL that it's still
extremely unstable.  Even if we assume everything on one end of the
scale (500mb temperature of -4C, very warm 500mb temp!  Surface
temperature of 38C, and a DP of 26C (assuming representative PBL with no
dry levels just aloft), you'll find you'll have a very unstable
atmosphere (LI's around -8/-10) but not only will you probably have a
big cap, but the upper level ridging would add subsidence over the area
surpressing the updraft.  Other things to consider, is that a dry area
just above the surface in the PBL would 'dilute' the potential of a
parcel.  On the other hand, you can have a marginally stable/unstable
atmosphere, but have favourable shear/upper level trough/low then you
could get some very nice storms in deed.  Shear can also enhance the
atmosphere for updrafts (ie, divergence/diffluence in the upper levels,
and convergence/confluence at the surface).

I think though the main thing is - not to use these religiously.  If you
take the time to understand the limitations of thunderstorm indicies,
you can probably help yourself out a great deal.  I actually don't use
thunderstorm indicies - except for the fact of looking at a LI potential
forecast map, and then looking at skew-T's (my personal little favourite
:) for that area to see if the forecasts are possible.  IE - you can
look at the SFC/PBL forecasts and also the upper level
temperatures/moisture/winds etc for upper level ridges/troughs etc.  

Of course, I think one of the best tools out there is still the good
MSLA/Sat pic/eyes method - not that I'm good at doing that!!!

I have bored enough people!

Anthony Cornelius

Harald Richter wrote:
<snippers> 

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [155.144.17.252]
From: "Simon" <borgprocrast at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Lightning Strikes
Date: Fri, 06 Oct 2000 08:30:46 EST
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<x-flowed>
Can anyone let me know where I might be able to find recent lightning strike 
maps online for Australia, or Melbourne specifically?

Thanks,
Simon
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "David Findlay" <nedz at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Re: TDU 2K
Date: Fri, 6 Oct 2000 08:41:27 +1000
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Hello

If someone going on the TDU 2k chase would like to post their SMS number, no
promises, but I may be able to send updates based on radar and lightning
tracker about where storms are located. I will be on the net most of the
time.

David Findlay

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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From: "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Well worth a read
Date: Fri, 06 Oct 2000 09:06:43 EST
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<x-flowed>
Hi Les,

As usual your informative message has punctured yet another of my 
misconceptions! <g>

I was led to believe that conservation of angular momentum had some 
influence on tornado dynamics - (I even mentioned it on IRC last night!) - 
nice to get the "good oil" straight from the horse's mouth!

<S>

Cheers,
Kevin from Wycheproof.


>From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: aus-wx: Well worth a read
>Date: Thu, 5 Oct 2000 12:33:49 -0400
>
>Jimmy Deguara wrote:
> > For understanding the processes of tornadogenesis, I think this 
>following
>
> > paper is well worth the read
> >
> > http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap07/tornado_form.html
> >
>
>Jimmy and all:
>
>IMO, I think this discussion in the above url is a little outdated and
>overlooks the role of the Rear Flank Downdraft (RFD).  The tilting term of
>the vorticity equation appears to be the primary source for the mid-level
>mesocyclone.  The low level mesocyclone may owe its origin to baroclinic
>vorticity generation (although this has come to be seriously questioned).
>The origin of the super cellular tornado itself appears to be closely
>related to the RFD and its high potential vorticity.  However, that is
>speculation based on VORTEX results and other observations.  The source of
>that vorticity within the RFD is unknown although there are several ideas.
>The bottom line is that tornadogenesis within super cellular storms is
>still a mystery.  The stretching term does appear to play an important role
>in virtually all tornadoes but the magnitude of that term and its
>importance appears to vary depending on tornado type and other factors.
>Because the residency time of air parcels within both the mesocyclone and
>especially within the tornado is so short, conservation of angular momentum
>is not believed to be important.
>
>Convergence and vertical stretching of pre-existing low-level vertical
>vorticity appears to dominate in "Land Spouts" and in the "gustnado".
>
>Les
>************************
>Leslie R. Lemon
>Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
>Phone: 816-373-3533
>E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [203.36.248.18]
From: "Kevin Phyland" <kjphyland at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: pressure from satellites.
Date: Fri, 06 Oct 2000 09:15:40 EST
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<x-flowed>
Hi David,

Thanx for the info...

I have absolutely no qualms whatsoever with taxpayer-funded research, (in 
fact - there should be more of it!) , merely whether it will ever be freely 
available...


Cheers,
Kevin Phyland.


I don't know how you value such a
>thing but if it were not for government funding of research, we quite
>possibly would never have this system...
>
>Cheers from a downright balmy Melbourne...
>
>David
>
>
>Dr David Jones
>
>Climate Analysis Section
>National Climate Centre
>Bureau of Meteorology      Fax      : (+61 3) 9669 4678
>GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne   Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
>Victoria 3001, Australia   Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425
>email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
>
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [141.132.130.125]
From: "Leslie Baxter" <mrt1000 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fabulous Cloud Photo
Date: Thu, 05 Oct 2000 23:35:11 GMT
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<x-flowed>

it's a shelf cloud, beneith a nice Cb

>From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fabulous Cloud Photo
>Date: Thu, 5 Oct 2000 21:23:18 +1100 (EST)
>
>On Thu, 5 Oct 2000, Jack Frost wrote:
>
> > Found this while browsing WWW...thought I should share it with you.
> >
> > 
>http://photo.weather.com/interact/photogallery/gallery/archive/20000203/gallery2n869.948946680.html
> >
>
>Actually, this is a roll cloud of similar character to those morning glory
>cloud lines I mentioned earlier. In this case, cold air outflow from the
>storms in the background has created a solitary wave (a wave with one
>hump) whose leading edge updraft forces air to rise, which subsequently
>cools, forming the smooth roll cloud. As the cloud passes, the back edge
>would look ragged as here the air is descending, which warms, and hence
>causes the cloud to dissipate.
>
>Once again, check out my page here at:
>http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/Thesis/introduction.html
>which has undergone a few modifications since I last posted this link, and
>shows how this cloud would have formed.
>
>If anything needs futher explaining (assuming of course people look at it
>:) ), I'd be happy to help out.
>
>
>Cheers
>
>--
>
>Robert A. Goler
>
>E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
>http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
>
>Department of Mathematics and Statistics
>Monash University
>Clayton, Vic 3800
>Australia
>
>--
>
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</x-flowed>
Date: Thu, 5 Oct 2000 20:31:56 -0400
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: Notes on CAPE & LI
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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Anthony wrote:

> could get some very nice storms in deed.  Shear can also enhance the
> atmosphere for updrafts (ie, divergence/diffluence in the upper levels,
> and convergence/confluence at the surface).

Don't forget that it is the interaction of the ambient (environmental)
shear on the convective updraft that adds considerably to the updraft
strength and propagation owing to dynamic, vertical pressure perturbation
gradients generated on the flanks of the updraft itself.  Moreover, the
environmental shear can also lead to streamwise vorticity along the axis of
the inflow to the updraft which can then create clockwise curving updraft
trajectories which in turn favor the production lower pressure aloft on the
updraft flanks.  Which flank is favored depends on the shear and hodograph
curvature.  But the net affect is often updraft augmentation and
propogation.

Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Thu, 5 Oct 2000 20:38:14 -0400
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: aus-wx: SA Aviation Forecast
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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Jane asked,
> 
> ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD, MOSTLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND
> UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
> 
> Um, what will the rain drops be doing until then????

Evaporating during decent.  This process will progressively moisten the
environment which aids in slowing and/or stoping evaporation permitting
precip to finally reach the ground.  <S>

Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 06 Oct 2000 12:22:04 +1000
From: Andrew Miskelly <amiskelly at ozemail.com.au>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: SA Aviation Forecast
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Jane,

Basically they are forecasting virgas, which may be more significant if
your a pilot to what they would be if you're a cow in a paddock (i
think).

Andrew.

Jane ONeill wrote:
> 
> Morning all,
> 
> ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD, MOSTLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND
> UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
> 
> Um, what will the rain drops be doing until then????
> 
> Jane
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> 
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> 
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
> 
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-- 

--
Andrew Miskelly
Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 06 Oct 2000 12:24:18 +1000
From: Andrew Miskelly <amiskelly at ozemail.com.au>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: TDU 2000  storm chasing expedition
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Andrew,

Thanks for your consideration, however at this stage I don't think I'll
be going this year - the time's not quite right. Hopefully I will start
attending in the near future.

Andrew.

Andrew Godsman wrote:
> 
> I will certainly be asking for some leave over probably the last two weeks
> of the chase. So count me and the mighty mag-a-na in for a bit of
> travelling. Michael, or Andrew Miskelly, how does/would this line up for
> you?
> 
> Andrew Godsman
>  > The dates I will be chasing is November 18th 2000 to
> > December 10th 2000. Geoff Thurtell is going to chase with me.
> >
> > I would really suggest those who want to go to team up with someone and
> > think of the dates they are able to chase and make preparations.
> 
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--
Andrew Miskelly
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amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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X-Authentication-Warning: neumann.maths.monash.edu.au: robert owned process doing -bs
Date: Fri, 6 Oct 2000 12:35:59 +1100 (EST)
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
X-Sender: robert at neumann.maths.monash.edu.au
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fabulous Cloud Photo
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Hi Leslie

On Thu, 5 Oct 2000, Leslie Baxter wrote:
> 
> it's a shelf cloud, beneith a nice Cb
> 

I must admit that my terminology with respect to thunderstorm features
ain't great, so I had to consult the storm spotters glossary
(http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/branick2d.html#Glossary) to see what
a shelf cloud was. The definition it gave was:

--
Shelf Cloud - A low, horizontal wedge-shaped arcus cloud, associated with
a thunderstorm gust front (or occasionally with a cold front, even in the
absence of thunderstorms). Unlike the roll cloud, the shelf cloud is
attached to the base of the parent cloud above it (usually a
thunderstorm). Rising cloud motion often can be seen in the leading 
(outer) part of the shelf cloud, while the underside often appears
turbulent, boiling, and wind-torn. 
--

where the key point I think is that it is attached to the base of the
parent cloud. 

Since a picture is worth a thousand words, I checked out the Sydney Storm
Chaser website which has pictures describing features of the storm, and
some pics of shelf clouds are shown here: 
http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/stormfeatures/gustershelf.htm
where they are still attached to the cloud.

If you look at the original photo mentioned by Jack Frost, it seems (to me
at least), that this cloud is separate from any storm, and thus would more
appropriately be described as a roll cloud, or morning glory type cloud.
Mind you, this is not to say that these two types of clouds are not formed
in similar sorts of ways.


> >On Thu, 5 Oct 2000, Jack Frost wrote:
> >
> > > Found this while browsing WWW...thought I should share it with you.
> > > 
> >http://photo.weather.com/interact/photogallery/gallery/archive/20000203/gallery2n869.948946680.html
> > >
> >
> I wrote previously
> >
> >Actually, this is a roll cloud of similar character to those morning glory
> >cloud lines I mentioned earlier. In this case, cold air outflow from the
> >storms in the background has created a solitary wave (a wave with one
> >hump) whose leading edge updraft forces air to rise, which subsequently
> >cools, forming the smooth roll cloud. As the cloud passes, the back edge
> >would look ragged as here the air is descending, which warms, and hence
> >causes the cloud to dissipate.
> >


Cheers

--

Robert A. Goler        

E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Monash University
Clayton, Vic 3800
Australia

--

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 06 Oct 2000 12:47:51 +1000
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
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I'm sorry guys... I have to admit that I was being a bit frivolous - not serious
at all - I spose I should have put a <g> after it so you knew where I was coming
from.

..............ooopppps - I'll just put my sense of humour away again,

Jane

Andrew Miskelly wrote:

> Jane,
>
> Basically they are forecasting virgas, which may be more significant if
> your a pilot to what they would be if you're a cow in a paddock (i
> think).
>
> Andrew.
>
> Jane ONeill wrote:
> >
> > Morning all,
> >
> > ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD, MOSTLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND
> > UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
> >
> > Um, what will the rain drops be doing until then????
> >
> > Jane
> > --------------------------------
> > Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> > cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > Melbourne Storm Chasers
> > http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> > ASWA - Victoria
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > --------------------------------
> >
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
>
> --
> Andrew Miskelly
> Illawarra/Southern Tablelands, NSW
> amiskelly at ozemail.com.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 6 Oct 2000 00:10:39 -0400
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Well worth a read
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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Kevin:

Well, I  have tested that idea and it simply did not test out.  Moreover,
analysis does not bear that out either.

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Phone: 816-373-3533
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com

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Date: Fri, 06 Oct 2000 15:39:23 +1000
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
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To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Cape York Peninsula
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Afternoon all,

Have been watching this rather interesting area of ?convergence over the
top of Cape York Peninsula for the last few days - it hasn't been really
showing up on radar but the cloud top temperatures seem to be low enough
at times to indicate increased depth and the potential to produce heavy
showers...is this what is happening?

Shows up clearly on the WV (water vapour) & the IR (infra red) but not
as clearly on the Vis. My guess is that it's Cirrus in a NW flow above
600hPa and it appears to be perched on the northern side of a weakish
jet.

ftp://ftp.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/ausvlast.gif  Infrared
http://207.133.112.37/gms5/austwv.jpg   Water Vapour

Thoughts anyone???

Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.0.101.2]
From: "David Croan" <wxbustchase at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Bushfire - Sydney
Date: Fri, 06 Oct 2000 15:10:34 EST
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 06 Oct 2000 05:10:35.0118 (UTC) FILETIME=[C212D8E0:01C02F53]
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<x-flowed>
Sydney, 3:30pm:

Just noticed quite dense smoke from what appears to be a nasty looking 
bushfire on the north shore. I guess it would be burning through a part of 
the Garigal NP in the Roseville - Davidson area. Tomorrow is not looking 
good either.
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</x-flowed>
Date: Fri, 06 Oct 2000 04:15:35 +1000
From: Don White <donwhite at ozemail.com.au>
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Subject: aus-wx: Sydney's Weather Forecast
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

At 3 am in Sydney today, the 3000 ft wind was from memory 250/15 knots
At 6 am it was 255 at 23 knots at 2000 ft and 240 at 24 knots at 3000
ft.

Without bagging the Bureau, can anyone explain why a seabreeze was
forecast to extent it was or didn't the forecaster bother to look at
these figures??
given the potential fire situation etc, such forecasts can be really
important. 
Especially in light of the forecast for Bass Strait and a weak southerly
on the far south coast...
So, next question, given the forecasted upper winds for tomorrow  and
the expected weak change overinhg ttonight, why is the forecast only
going for a 2 degrees difference bnetween Sydney and the west.... is it
to compensate for today's error ??

We'll wait and see.

Don White
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "John Woodbridge" <jrw at pixelcom.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Cape York Peninsula
Date: Fri, 6 Oct 2000 15:05:14 +1000
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I think it is outflow from convection on the southern side of the ITCZ over
indonesia.

Regards,
John.
>snip
Subject: aus-wx: Cape York Peninsula

Afternoon all,

Have been watching this rather interesting area of ?convergence over the
top of Cape York Peninsula for the last few days - it hasn't been really
showing up on radar but the cloud top temperatures seem to be low enough
at times to indicate increased depth and the potential to produce heavy
showers...is this what is happening?

Shows up clearly on the WV (water vapour) & the IR (infra red) but not
as clearly on the Vis. My guess is that it's Cirrus in a NW flow above
600hPa and it appears to be perched on the northern side of a weakish
jet.

ftp://ftp.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/ausvlast.gif  Infrared
http://207.133.112.37/gms5/austwv.jpg   Water Vapour

Thoughts anyone???

Jane

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
From: "Chris Daley" <jindivik at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SA Aviation Forecast
Date: Fri, 6 Oct 2000 17:30:32 +1000
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I heard the 'The Cloud' had organised a stop work meeting and poker game for
the rain during the day.

Last word was that they hadn't been able to reach any agreement, so they
were gonna keep playing poker for a while.

Chris

----- Original Message -----
From: "Jane ONeill" <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: "Aussie-wx" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 06, 2000 7:58 AM
Subject: aus-wx: SA Aviation Forecast


> Morning all,
>
> ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD, MOSTLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND
> UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
>
> Um, what will the rain drops be doing until then????
>
> Jane
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
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>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [203.134.154.29]
From: "Rune Peitersen" <runepeitersen at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Dry, hot, smokey, thirst
Date: Fri, 06 Oct 2000 16:37:57 EST
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<x-flowed>
Hi all,
  35-36C in Sydney today. Very hot and dry.  Three more fires have been 
deliberately lit this arvo around hornsby and dural area, all 
simultaneously.  Just adding to the smoke in the air and workload for the 
firies who should be saving themselves for the potential big outbreak 
started by more natural causes. Haven't had a month here (Glenorie)over 75mm 
since March,
April:  72.5 mm
May:    31.0 mm
June:   22.0 mm
July:   24.0 mm
August: 26.7 mm
Sept:   46.7 mm
Oct:     0.0 mm
(6days)
Could be a rough day tomorrow if the pyromanics can't control themselves.. 
Looks like Hunter again for Sunday might be the place to be, what does 
everyone think ?!>.. 545pm still 31C,, mmmmm cold beer..
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</x-flowed>
X-Originating-IP: [203.54.88.124]
From: "S G" <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SA Aviation Forecast
Date: Fri, 06 Oct 2000 16:22:50 CST
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 06 Oct 2000 06:52:50.0324 (UTC) FILETIME=[0AF0FD40:01C02F62]
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<x-flowed>
evaporating maybe, this is a very common occurance during summer here in 
adelaide, looks like it will rain but it only rains in the upper atmosphere 
until the right conditions occur on the surface.  EG. less heat


>From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: aus-wx: SA Aviation Forecast
>Date: Fri, 06 Oct 2000 07:58:51 +1000
>
>Morning all,
>
>ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD, MOSTLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND
>UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
>
>Um, what will the rain drops be doing until then????
>
>Jane
>--------------------------------
>Jane ONeill - Melbourne
>cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
>Melbourne Storm Chasers
>http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
>ASWA - Victoria
>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>--------------------------------
>
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</x-flowed>
From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cape York Peninsula
Date: Fri, 6 Oct 2000 17:57:16 +1000
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Hello Jane.
I noticed this activity yesterday, the infra red is rather distinct, however
radar seems to show very little. My guess is that the cloud line appears to
be an upper convergence, bands of thinner cirrus are apparent to the north
and are possibly reflecting outflow from large scale convective complexes
near to the equator, this cirrus flows southward  in the upper flow ( above
330hpa) north of the 300hpa ridge which seems to be running along about 12
to 16 degrees south. As this upper moist layer moves south of the 300hpa
ridge it encounters the high level westerlies with colder conditions ,this
sets up the convergence line with  a build up cirrus where conditions are
saturated for ice crystal generation. I would say that this line is composed
of very dense cirrus, the upper westerly south of this line you would find
is also much dryer. regards Clyve Herbert.
----- Original Message -----
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 06, 2000 3:39 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Cape York Peninsula


> Afternoon all,
>
> Have been watching this rather interesting area of ?convergence over the
> top of Cape York Peninsula for the last few days - it hasn't been really
> showing up on radar but the cloud top temperatures seem to be low enough
> at times to indicate increased depth and the potential to produce heavy
> showers...is this what is happening?
>
> Shows up clearly on the WV (water vapour) & the IR (infra red) but not
> as clearly on the Vis. My guess is that it's Cirrus in a NW flow above
> 600hPa and it appears to be perched on the northern side of a weakish
> jet.
>
> ftp://ftp.jcu.edu.au/JCUMetSat/ausvlast.gif  Infrared
> http://207.133.112.37/gms5/austwv.jpg   Water Vapour
>
> Thoughts anyone???
>
> Jane
> --------------------------------
> Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> cadence at stormchasers.au.com
>
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> http://www.stormchasers.au.com
>
> ASWA - Victoria
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> --------------------------------
>
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From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fabulous Cloud Photo
Date: Fri, 6 Oct 2000 18:20:15 +1000
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Hi Robert.
I must agree this is a type of roll cloud, there are rain shafts beyond and
there appears to be a higher level cloud structure not attached to this
cloud which I may identify as a shelf, I would  classify this rather
interesting cloud line as a roll cloud associated with an outflow pressure
surge emanating from the what appears to be a decaying multi cell complex in
the background, the smoothness is typical of this type of cloud which gives
me the impression the whole process is sliding along an invisible glass
layer as if below and above causing the effect to be limited to a very
narrow vertical layer, interesting weather can occur as a roll cloud passes
over, sometimes the surface flow will reverse as the roll passes overhead,
their forward motion is also very interesting and sometimes they slow down ,
I have noticed other times the roll will evaporate when a slowing down of
the line occurs, which may indicate the lifespan of the phenomena requires a
certain speed of motion to  exist ,which may also tie into your studies of
the morning glory......all very interesting stuff!. regards Clyve Herbert.


----- Original Message -----
From: Robert Goler <robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, October 06, 2000 11:35 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Fabulous Cloud Photo


>
> Hi Leslie
>
> On Thu, 5 Oct 2000, Leslie Baxter wrote:
> >
> > it's a shelf cloud, beneith a nice Cb
> >
>
> I must admit that my terminology with respect to thunderstorm features
> ain't great, so I had to consult the storm spotters glossary
> (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/branick2d.html#Glossary) to see what
> a shelf cloud was. The definition it gave was:
>
> --
> Shelf Cloud - A low, horizontal wedge-shaped arcus cloud, associated with
> a thunderstorm gust front (or occasionally with a cold front, even in the
> absence of thunderstorms). Unlike the roll cloud, the shelf cloud is
> attached to the base of the parent cloud above it (usually a
> thunderstorm). Rising cloud motion often can be seen in the leading
> (outer) part of the shelf cloud, while the underside often appears
> turbulent, boiling, and wind-torn.
> --
>
> where the key point I think is that it is attached to the base of the
> parent cloud.
>
> Since a picture is worth a thousand words, I checked out the Sydney Storm
> Chaser website which has pictures describing features of the storm, and
> some pics of shelf clouds are shown here:
> http://www.sydneystormchasers.com/stormfeatures/gustershelf.htm
> where they are still attached to the cloud.
>
> If you look at the original photo mentioned by Jack Frost, it seems (to me
> at least), that this cloud is separate from any storm, and thus would more
> appropriately be described as a roll cloud, or morning glory type cloud.
> Mind you, this is not to say that these two types of clouds are not formed
> in similar sorts of ways.
>
>
> > >On Thu, 5 Oct 2000, Jack Frost wrote:
> > >
> > > > Found this while browsing WWW...thought I should share it with you.
> > > >
> >
>http://photo.weather.com/interact/photogallery/gallery/archive/20000203/gal
lery2n869.948946680.html
> > > >
> > >
> > I wrote previously
> > >
> > >Actually, this is a roll cloud of similar character to those morning
glory
> > >cloud lines I mentioned earlier. In this case, cold air outflow from
the
> > >storms in the background has created a solitary wave (a wave with one
> > >hump) whose leading edge updraft forces air to rise, which subsequently
> > >cools, forming the smooth roll cloud. As the cloud passes, the back
edge
> > >would look ragged as here the air is descending, which warms, and hence
> > >causes the cloud to dissipate.
> > >
>
>
> Cheers
>
> --
>
> Robert A. Goler
>
> E-mail robert at mail.maths.monash.edu.au
> http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~robert/
>
> Department of Mathematics and Statistics
> Monash University
> Clayton, Vic 3800
> Australia
>
> --
>
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From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SA Aviation Forecast
Date: Fri, 6 Oct 2000 18:24:42 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi S.G. and others.
I also noted the possibility of local severe turbulence, under high based
thunderstorms ... the evaporation process can sometimes produce intense
downdrafts that may extend to the ground even some distance from the
evaporating rain shaft and can be damaging. Regards Clyve H.
----- Original Message -----
From: S G <thunderday191 at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 07, 2000 8:22 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SA Aviation Forecast


> evaporating maybe, this is a very common occurance during summer here in
> adelaide, looks like it will rain but it only rains in the upper
atmosphere
> until the right conditions occur on the surface.  EG. less heat
>
>
> >From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
> >Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> >Subject: aus-wx: SA Aviation Forecast
> >Date: Fri, 06 Oct 2000 07:58:51 +1000
> >
> >Morning all,
> >
> >ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD, MOSTLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND
> >UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
> >
> >Um, what will the rain drops be doing until then????
> >
> >Jane
> >--------------------------------
> >Jane ONeill - Melbourne
> >cadence at stormchasers.au.com
> >
> >Melbourne Storm Chasers
> >http://www.stormchasers.au.com
> >
> >ASWA - Victoria
> >http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> >--------------------------------
> >
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> _________________________________________________________________________
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From: " Max King" <mnk at dingoblue.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dry, hot, smokey, thirst
Date: Fri, 6 Oct 2000 18:43:49 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi peoples,

Its absolutely raining ash here at Willoughby at the moment.
Sun is almost totally blotted out.
(Have to do the washing again)    :o(



Max





----- Original Message -----
From: Rune Peitersen <runepeitersen at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 07, 2000 7:37 AM
Subject: aus-wx: Dry, hot, smokey, thirst


> Hi all,
>   35-36C in Sydney today. Very hot and dry.  Three more fires have been
> deliberately lit this arvo around hornsby and dural area, all
> simultaneously.  Just adding to the smoke in the air and workload for the
> firies who should be saving themselves for the potential big outbreak
> started by more natural causes. Haven't had a month here (Glenorie)over
75mm
> since March,
> April:  72.5 mm
> May:    31.0 mm
> June:   22.0 mm
> July:   24.0 mm
> August: 26.7 mm
> Sept:   46.7 mm
> Oct:     0.0 mm
> (6days)
> Could be a rough day tomorrow if the pyromanics can't control themselves..
> Looks like Hunter again for Sunday might be the place to be, what does
> everyone think ?!>.. 545pm still 31C,, mmmmm cold beer..
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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> http://profiles.msn.com.
>
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From: "clyve herbert" <mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cloud band W.A  to TAS:
Date: Fri, 6 Oct 2000 18:44:12 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2722.2800" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>This cloud band continues to expand and is one of 
the largest&nbsp; systems I have seen although mostly high level stuff there may 
be a possibility of significant rainfall across south eastern Australia over the 
next 24 hours there is also marked vorticity near the central Australian Bight 
area, lets keep our fingers crossed for some decent rainfall. regards Clyve 
H.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A href="mailto:mesof5 at iprimus.com.au" title=mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>clyve 
  herbert</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com" 
  title=aussie-weather at world.std.com>aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, October 05, 2000 9:35 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Cloud band W.A to 
  TAS:</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The enlarging mid level cloud band extending from 
  WA to Tasmania looks nice and worth keeping a check on over the next day or 
  so, also a couple of early season storms south southwest of Darwin look ok 
  too. regards Clyve H.</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Paul Mossman" <paulmoss at tpgi.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Cloud band W.A  to TAS:
Date: Fri, 6 Oct 2000 17:21:11 +0930
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2919.6307" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi Clyve et all.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>There seems to be some intensification of the 
cloudband as it has consolidated here now, and is taking on that "pre-frontal" 
type look with lower level stuff thickening at the base and the light now quite 
dark. Rain appears to be falling to the South, Sw &amp; possibly the west ( I am 
at the airport).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>This is the SIGMET (dont know where those Latitutes 
are though - anyone help??)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>&lt;!--StartFragment--&gt;YMMM SIGMET CB02 VALID 
060700/061300 YSRF-<BR>MELBOURNE FIR OCNL SEV TURB AND MOUNTAIN WAVES FCST BLW 
12000 WITHIN<BR>THE AREA 
37.5S151E/37.5S150E/36.5S148E/35S148E/36S151E/37.5S151E.<BR>INTST 
NC.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Paul leaving Adelaide.................</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
  <A href="mailto:mesof5 at iprimus.com.au" title=mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>clyve 
  herbert</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
  href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com" 
  title=aussie-weather at world.std.com>aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> </DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, October 06, 2000 6:14 
  PM</DIV>
  <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: aus-wx: Cloud band W.A to 
  TAS:</DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>This cloud band continues to expand and is one of 
  the largest&nbsp; systems I have seen although mostly high level stuff there 
  may be a possibility of significant rainfall across south eastern Australia 
  over the next 24 hours there is also marked vorticity near the central 
  Australian Bight area, lets keep our fingers crossed for some decent rainfall. 
  regards Clyve H.</FONT></DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE 
  style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> 
    <A href="mailto:mesof5 at iprimus.com.au" title=mesof5 at iprimus.com.au>clyve 
    herbert</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A 
    href="mailto:aussie-weather at world.std.com" 
    title=aussie-weather at world.std.com>aussie-weather at world.std.com</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, October 05, 2000 9:35 
    PM</DIV>
    <DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> aus-wx: Cloud band W.A to 
    TAS:</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all.</FONT></DIV>
    <DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The enlarging mid level cloud band extending 
    from WA to Tasmania looks nice and worth keeping a check on over the next 
    day or so, also a couple of early season storms south southwest of Darwin 
    look ok too. regards Clyve 
H.</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

</x-html>
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Sydney's Weather Forecast
Date: Fri, 6 Oct 2000 20:05:06 +1000
Organization: 
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

You could tell from the clearer skies ( relatively speaking ) that the
seabreeze was very shallow today.

I work within 800m of the ocean and there was a see-sawing tug o war between
the hot NW wind and the NE seabreeze from about 10am to around 2pm when
finally the breeze established at least along the coastal strip. At least
the NW was light otherwise the bushfire problem may have been diasterous.

I think we need 200mm of rain over the next few weeks to avoid what could be
one of the worst bushfire seasons ever.

Michael



> At 3 am in Sydney today, the 3000 ft wind was from memory 250/15 knots
> At 6 am it was 255 at 23 knots at 2000 ft and 240 at 24 knots at 3000
> ft.
>
> Without bagging the Bureau, can anyone explain why a seabreeze was
> forecast to extent it was or didn't the forecaster bother to look at
> these figures??
> given the potential fire situation etc, such forecasts can be really
> important.
> Especially in light of the forecast for Bass Strait and a weak southerly
> on the far south coast...
> So, next question, given the forecasted upper winds for tomorrow  and
> the expected weak change overinhg ttonight, why is the forecast only
> going for a 2 degrees difference bnetween Sydney and the west.... is it
> to compensate for today's error ??
>
> We'll wait and see.
>
> Don White
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Date: Fri, 06 Oct 2000 20:59:33 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jimmy Deguara <jdeguara at ihug.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Dry, hot, smokey, thirst
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-flowed>
Hi Rune and all,

I would say that at this stage, it looks more like a rain event for Sunday 
perhaps with embedded storms. However, this can change.

I think that we need a good dumping and some NE winds to start pumping 
moisture inland a little. I actually don't mind that the we are getting the 
ocean heating due to the clear and warm weather. This may increase ocean 
temperatures and hence improve the prospects of higher moisture provided 
for storms provided that we don't go into the type of conditions we had 
last year.

However, it seems that ridge along the Queensland coast is persisting. It 
really needs to break down. Are the seas surface temperatures closer to 
shore lower than normal?

We shall see what happens.

Jimmy Deguara

At 04:37 PM 6/10/00 -0500, you wrote:
>Hi all,
>  35-36C in Sydney today. Very hot and dry.  Three more fires have been 
> deliberately lit this arvo around hornsby and dural area, all 
> simultaneously.  Just adding to the smoke in the air and workload for the 
> firies who should be saving themselves for the potential big outbreak 
> started by more natural causes. Haven't had a month here (Glenorie)over 
> 75mm since March,
>April:  72.5 mm
>May:    31.0 mm
>June:   22.0 mm
>July:   24.0 mm
>August: 26.7 mm
>Sept:   46.7 mm
>Oct:     0.0 mm
>(6days)
>Could be a rough day tomorrow if the pyromanics can't control themselves.. 
>Looks like Hunter again for Sunday might be the place to be, what does 
>everyone think ?!>.. 545pm still 31C,, mmmmm cold beer..
>_________________________________________________________________________
>Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
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>http://profiles.msn.com.
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>-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-----------------------------------------
Jimmy Deguara
Storm Chaser and Mathematics Teacher

from
Schofields, Sydney
NSW Australia

e-mail:jdeguara at ihug.com.au

Web Page with Michael Bath

Australian Severe Weather Home Page
http://www.australiasevereweather.com

President of the Australian Severe Weather Association
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
</x-flowed>
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Weekend storm prospects ( not ) & Deja Vous
Date: Fri, 6 Oct 2000 21:24:58 +1000
Organization: 
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

I have feeling that  Sydney tomorrow and Sunday is going to be almost a dead
copy of  the 3rd and 4th October 1998. These days some of may recall were
the start of the second week of the first ever organised chase.

On that Saturday there was a meeting of chasers at Rooty Hill. Clyve Herbert
from Victoria had joined the crew. I forget the actual temperature but it
was over 30C with a hot dry NW/W wind. Much the same conditions as predicted
for tomorrow !

Overnight a SE wind changed moved through Sydney, taking with it the chances
of storms. Myself, Jimmy, Clyve and Paul Yole headed north and at 1pm had
caught up with cumulus development over the Liverpool ranges, larger storms
were evident to the east of Armidale.

Guess what, I think this Sunday will almost be a repeat. I have a feeling
that the trough will slide through early morning on Sunday again taking
action to the upper hunter and mid north coast.

Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com


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X-Originating-IP: [198.142.93.229]
From: "Shaun Whelan" <wheelsthepusser at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SA Aviation Forecast
Date: Fri, 06 Oct 2000 20:43:57 EST
X-OriginalArrivalTime: 06 Oct 2000 10:43:57.0550 (UTC) FILETIME=[5473C0E0:01C02F82]
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<x-flowed>
Chris,
      Evening and hope to find you and yours well. Just one Q that's off 
topic. Your email add. starts with Jindivik, any reason for this unusual but 
recognisable name?
                              An interested Pusser
                                                  Shaun       Nowra


>From: "Chris Daley" <jindivik at bigpond.com>

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</x-flowed>
From: "Michael Thompson" <michaelt at ozemail.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: Notes on CAPE & LI
Date: Fri, 6 Oct 2000 21:44:59 +1000
Organization: 
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Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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No at all Anthony, I find it all part of my learning process. A strange
process too, a bit like a jigsaw, rather than the standard moving from
simple to more complex.

Before the Internet I was largely ignorant of models and upper atmosphere
conditions. I could ( and still can ) pretty much hold my own out in the
field with now-forecasting, but the knowledge I have gained from this list
helps with the preparation and targeting for those days and locations

Michael
From: "Chris Daley" <jindivik at bigpond.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SA Aviation Forecast
Date: Fri, 6 Oct 2000 21:58:58 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.50.4133.2400
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Shaun,

Mentioning Pusser, I assume you either are in or were in the Navy, so you
might be more familiar with the Jindivik than most.

My Grandfather was the man who designed the Jindivik drone while he was
working at the Government Aircraft Factories.  Technically, since my
Grandfather was the Father of the Jindivik, I am the Jindiviks nephew.

Regards,

Chris

----- Original Message -----
From: "Shaun Whelan" <wheelsthepusser at hotmail.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, October 07, 2000 11:43 AM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SA Aviation Forecast


> Chris,
>       Evening and hope to find you and yours well. Just one Q that's off
> topic. Your email add. starts with Jindivik, any reason for this unusual
but
> recognisable name?
>                               An interested Pusser
>                                                   Shaun       Nowra
>
>
> >From: "Chris Daley" <jindivik at bigpond.com>
>
> _________________________________________________________________________
> Get Your Private, Free E-mail from MSN Hotmail at http://www.hotmail.com.
>
> Share information about yourself, create your own public profile at
> http://profiles.msn.com.
>
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>


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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
Date: Fri, 06 Oct 2000 22:07:11 +1000
From: Jane ONeill <cadence at stormchasers.au.com>
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Subject: Re: aus-wx: OUTLOOK: Notes on CAPE & LI
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I have to agree - the discussions & explanations that come across the list are
fantastic for adding pieces to the jigsaw.....this is a great analogy
Michael!!!! - there are a lot of pieces of blue sky & very few points of
reference to begin with, so it's discussions like these which teach all of us(
even those members of the list who know a heck of a lot more than the rest)
something that we didn't know - even Les Lemon has learnt from us as we have
from him.

Another of the great things about these discussions is that it teaches us all
to be flexible - it is far too easy to fall into a habit of looking at
something from only one perspective, without considering the other 'angles'
..please keep this sort of discussion going, they are in no way boring -
exactly the opposite in fact!!!


Jane
--------------------------------
Jane ONeill - Melbourne
cadence at stormchasers.au.com

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.stormchasers.au.com

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
--------------------------------

Michael Thompson wrote:

> No at all Anthony, I find it all part of my learning process. A strange
> process too, a bit like a jigsaw, rather than the standard moving from
> simple to more complex.
>
> Before the Internet I was largely ignorant of models and upper atmosphere
> conditions. I could ( and still can ) pretty much hold my own out in the
> field with now-forecasting, but the knowledge I have gained from this list
> helps with the preparation and targeting for those days and locations
>
> Michael

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
X-Originating-IP: [198.142.93.229]
From: "Shaun Whelan" <wheelsthepusser at hotmail.com>
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: SA Aviation Forecast
Date: Fri, 06 Oct 2000 21:40:13 EST
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<x-flowed>
      Chris,
             You got it in one, I am in the Navy. I'm a birdie at NAS Nowra. 
It's pretty hard to miss a name like Jindivik when you read or hear 
something about it every month. I wonder if there are any kalkara at  out there 
in net land?
                               Have a great naval weekend
                                                    Shaun    Nowra

                                               (aka wheels)
    Nix Wx to speak of


>From: "Chris Daley" <jindivik at bigpond.com>
>Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: SA Aviation Forecast
>Date: Fri, 6 Oct 2000 21:58:58 +1000
>
>Hi Shaun,
>
>Mentioning Pusser, I assume you either are in or were in the Navy, so you
>might be more familiar with the Jindivik than most.
>
>My Grandfather was the man who designed the Jindivik drone while he was
>working at the Government Aircraft Factories.  Technically, since my
>Grandfather was the Father of the Jindivik, I am the Jindiviks nephew.
>
>Regards,
>
>Chris
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Shaun Whelan" <wheelsthepusser at hotmail.com>
>To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
>Sent: Saturday, October 07, 2000 11:43 AM
>Subject: Re: aus-wx: SA Aviation Forecast
>
>
> > Chris,
> >       Evening and hope to find you and yours well. Just one Q that's off
> > topic. Your email add. starts with Jindivik, any reason for this unusual
>but
> > recognisable name?
> >                               An interested Pusser
> >                                                   Shaun       Nowra
> >
> >
> > >From: "Chris Daley" <jindivik at bigpond.com>
> >
> > 
>_________________________________________________________________________
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> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
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