Date: Sat, 20 May 2000 12:22:37 -0700
From: Lindsay <writer at lisp.com.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Just to get everyone excited...
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No, don't want to get too excited this early in the season, its too much
on the pace maker.

Come to Blackheath Oval next weekend, a few of us will be out in force
campaigning against Blocking Highs! 

Bring your placards.

Lindsay Pearce



Blair Trewin wrote:
> 
> Just to get everyone excited, day 7 of the latest ECMWF run (next
> Friday night) has a cold outbreak with sub-524 thicknesses reaching
> the Victorian coast and sub-520 just west of Tasmania....
> 
> I'll believe it when I see it, but we haven't seen anything quite
> like this in a model for a while.
> 
> Blair Trewin
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Date: Sun, 21 May 2000 09:44:22 +1000
From: MSC <cadence at rubix.net.au>
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To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: MSC updates
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A couple of updates on the Melbourne Storm Chasers site:

...the first Tasmanian report (16/4/2000 by Andrew Boskell) has found a
home on MSC till the Tasmanian site gets going...
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/tas1.htm

...2 brilliant pics of the storm receding to the SE on the 16th April
taken by Debbie Parker have been added to the report
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/16_4_00.htm

...if you've always wondered about the effect of friction on the passage
of a cold front have a look at the one that went through Melbourne
yesterday
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/0520mlp.htm

MSC is now linked to and from the redesigned Storm Track page
(www.storm-track.com) 
(aussies are taking over the international links there <g>)

Enjoy!

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill
cadence at rubix.net.au

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

--------------------------------
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From: "Ben Tichborne" <tich at netaccess.co.nz>
To: <aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Re: aussie-weather-digest V1 #583
Date: Sun, 21 May 2000 12:24:58 +1200
Organization: Private
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> The EC and GASP 12z runs last night are going ballistic in developing
> a major cold outbreak over SE Aust late next Friday. If the 7 day EC
> forecast for next Friday night came true, there would we widespread
> snow to low levels across SA, southern NSW, Vic and Tas. It has a deep
> 1000/500hPa thickness trough aligned north/south through Mt Gambier
> with the 524 line running through SE SA and SW Vic. GASP for the same
> time is a bit quicker and slightly less dramatic, with the trough
> aligned NNW/SSE through Sale -- the 532 line only comes up to about
> Hobart, but the 536 loops around most of central western NSW. NOGAPS
> is only available to Thursday night and shows the 528 line coming up
> to west of Cape Grim at that time. MRF won't be available til later
> this evening.

 The 9 day mini-maps also show this very cold southwesterly air moving onto
NZ on the 9th day of the forecast period. But that's a long way into the
future by forecasting standards, and it's only one model prognosis. (I don't
generally bother with NCEP [No Change Ever Predicted] 15 day forecasts
anymore)
How often do such long range prognoses actually prove near to correct? - I
tend to forget what the maps were suggesting 9 days before.

 A not so icy southerly seems to be moving over Canterbury at present -
raining steadily in Christchurch for most of morning and about 9 or 10
degrees Celsius. Not much wind though, but the barometer has risen, so the
change of airmass must have come through. Probably a few more cm of white
stuff for the skifields, just like the other brief southerly outbreaks that
have affected us over recent weeks.


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From: "Lyle Pakula" <remote at leski.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: National Climate Centre predicts warm and dry winter for South Eastern Australia
Date: Sun, 21 May 2000 11:20:54 +1000
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Hi,

Yer, knew it had to be something like that - something tells me a little 3
year pattern wouldn't escape your eyes ;->

Cheers, Lyle.

-  - ---==( lyle_pakula at hotmail.com )==--- -  -
     .
    / \  .
   /~~~\/ \ " No Friends On A Powder Day "
  /     \  \
 /       \  \





----- Original Message -----
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at flatrate.net.au>
To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Saturday, May 20, 2000 3:00 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: National Climate Centre predicts warm and dry winter
for South Eastern Australia


> Hi Lyle,
>
> Perhaps a small breakdown of communication here :)  In the original
> email, the basis of sending it was to put the point forward that the
> Baric Ridge had been further south then normal for a few years.  I
> thought you were mentioning that the Baric Ridge had been consistently
> north for the past years, but you were referring to the past 2 weeks.
> Although I think the Baric Ridge is approximately where it should be
> (but certainly, more persistant!)
>
> My apologies for that!
>
> Lyle Pakula wrote:
> >
> > Hi Anthony,
> >
> > For sure it would be good/awesome/unreal/<insert all positive adjectives
> > here> if they tracked along there long term average latitude, but they
have
> > been consistantly south for the past several years, as I'm sure your
aware
> > ;-)
> >
> > Cheers, Lyle.
> >
> > -  - ---==( lyle_pakula at hotmail.com )==--- -  -
> >      .
> >     / \  .
> >    /~~~\/ \ " No Friends On A Powder Day "
> >   /     \  \
> >  /       \  \
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at flatrate.net.au>
> > To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> > Sent: Friday, May 19, 2000 7:30 PM
> > Subject: Re: aus-wx: National Climate Centre predicts warm and dry
winter
> > for South Eastern Australia
> >
> > > Hi Lyle,
> > >
> > > I actually thought the Baric Ridge has been further south than usual.
> > > Normally during winter, the Baric Ridge will sit somewhere around the
> > > 30S mark.  This gives Brisbane the more characteristic (and dreaded),
> > > SW'lies (and it's not unusual to have them at gale force).  If the
Baric
> > > Ridge were to sit at this level, I would have thought it'd mean a much
> > > more fun winter for the SE Australian's - as it'd allow the passage of
> > > fronts, and also allow cyclongensis to occur more frequently down near
> > > Victoria and Tasmania.
> > >
> > > This isn't an attempt to jump the gun - so don't worry :-)
> > >
> > > My 2c worth.
> > >
> > > Lyle Pakula wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Hi Blair,
> > > >
> > > > Just a comment on the position of the high's - From memory fo the
past
> > three
> > > > years, I can't remember the ridge's actually remaining as north as
they
> > > > currently are for this period of time - the period I refer to is the
> > past
> > > > week or two. Before anyone jumps the gun, I know there not actually
that
> > far
> > > > North but being above the Prom is a good enough sign for me. Hell,
> > Melbourne
> > > > had westerlies in the last high! Although the avg temps and rain is
> > > > disapointing,  I'm sure the snow people among us will take anything
as a
> > > > good sign to wax their equipment :)
> > > >
> > > > Cheers, Lyle.
> > > >
> > > <snip>
> > > --
> > > Anthony Cornelius
> > > Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> > > (ASWA)
> > > (07) 3390 4812
> > > 14 Kinsella St
> > > Belmont, Brisbane
> > > QLD, 4153
> > > Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe
thunderstorm
> > > reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
> > > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
> > >
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  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> 14 Kinsella St
> Belmont, Brisbane
> QLD, 4153
> Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
> reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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Date: Sun, 21 May 2000 03:53:57 -0700
From: Lindsay <writer at lisp.com.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 3.0 (Win16; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow next weekend?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Yes, and it would be great if they had a good snow season down south
this year. I don't know how business has been down that way but surely
they can't handle too many more bad seasons. Anyone know more about
this, ie: are the numbers dropping off for our resorts?

At least the models are portending something decent, its a start, and it
seems the frontal weather is a little closer to Australia than it was
this time last year, going on memory anyway.


Lindsay Pearce




 
<SNIP>
> Of course, the models were pretty consistent in forecasting a somewhat
> less substantial cold outbreak for last weekend when they were 7 days
> out, and then weakened it off to nothing over ensuing runs. However,
> given the current lack of interesting weather, this at least gives us
> something to watch!
> 
> --
> Laurier Williams
> Australian Weather News & Links
> http://ausweather.simplenet.com
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Date: Sun, 21 May 2000 17:44:29 +1000
From: MSC <cadence at rubix.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.05 [en] (Win95; I)
To: Aussie-wx <aussie-weather at world.std.com>,
        Wx-chase <WX-CHASE at postoffice.cso.uiuc.edu>
Subject: aus-wx: Australia's TDU99 Chase Report
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Andrew McDonald & I can't agree on who should tell everyone that...

ThunderDownUnder99 (Week 1) report is finally up with a few pics.
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/tdu991.htm

so we'll probably both tell you <g>.

For those of you who weren't around or missed out on the excitement,
TDU99 (ThunderDownUnder99) was the first semi-organised 'chase' in
Australia which was open to all and ended up with up 14 people and 8
cars travelling up to 8,500kms (5,000+ miles) in NSW & Queensland over 2
weeks at the end of November & beginning of December 1999. We were our
own travelling traffic jam <g> in some of the smaller towns, the locals
stood there with their mouths open, but the service station owners loved
us especially if we set up a base in their town - and there was not one
mechanical problem or flat tyre over the entire 60,000kms or so
travelled by all - not bad!!!

It's worthwhile bookmarking it as it will be updated, added to & have
more pics and information added over the next couple of weeks pass.

If you'd like to keep up with what's being added in dribs and drabs atm,
check out 
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/wotznu.htm

Jane

--------------------------------
Jane ONeill
cadence at rubix.net.au

Melbourne Storm Chasers
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence

ASWA - Victoria
http://www.severeweather.asn.au

--------------------------------
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From: "McDonald" <mcdonald at one.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Thunder Down Under 1999
Date: Sun, 21 May 2000 17:53:13 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2614.3500" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hey people,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I've finally got my act into gear and written up 
some of the chase report from the two-week long chase undertaken by several ASWA 
members from 3 different states.&nbsp; There are a few photos including one of 
the tornado we saw on the page but there will be more once I get my 
scanner.&nbsp; I still have to write/tpye up the second week of the chase which, 
in comparison to the first week, was less active but I still have plenty to 
write about.&nbsp; Enough talking - here is the URL.&nbsp; I hope what I've 
written is as enjoyable to read as it was to actually be there.&nbsp; 
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2><A 
href="http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/tdu991.htm">http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/tdu991.htm</A></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Big thanks to Jane O'Neill for providing the web 
page and helping me put it all together.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Andrew McDonald</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>(Macca - MSC)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>
From: "Lyle Pakula" <remote at leski.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow next weekend?
Date: Sun, 21 May 2000 23:48:18 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi,

I think the industry is definatly starting to feel the pinch. This year is
the bigger year for pre-bookings to NZ ever, hence all the extra flights. I
think the biggest indication is the advertising - if you check out the Mt
Buller 00' adds, they are using a photo of another mountain range - I mean
who are they kidding? However, early bird season tickets went up $50 again
this year at Mt Hotham/Falls Creek - money hungry bastards!

Cheers, Lyle.

p.s. I can say 'cheers' b/c I'm heading to NZ again for my snow fix!




-  - ---==( lyle_pakula at hotmail.com )==--- -  -
     .
    / \  .
   /~~~\/ \ " No Friends On A Powder Day "
  /     \  \
 /       \  \





----- Original Message -----
From: Lindsay <writer at lisp.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Sunday, May 21, 2000 8:53 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Snow next weekend?


> Yes, and it would be great if they had a good snow season down south
> this year. I don't know how business has been down that way but surely
> they can't handle too many more bad seasons. Anyone know more about
> this, ie: are the numbers dropping off for our resorts?
>
> At least the models are portending something decent, its a start, and it
> seems the frontal weather is a little closer to Australia than it was
> this time last year, going on memory anyway.
>
>
> Lindsay Pearce
>
>
>
>
>
> <SNIP>
> > Of course, the models were pretty consistent in forecasting a somewhat
> > less substantial cold outbreak for last weekend when they were 7 days
> > out, and then weakened it off to nothing over ensuing runs. However,
> > given the current lack of interesting weather, this at least gives us
> > something to watch!
> >
> > --
> > Laurier Williams
> > Australian Weather News & Links
> > http://ausweather.simplenet.com
> >  +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> >  To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
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> >  with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
>
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