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Date: Fri, 19 May 2000 11:04:45 -0500
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Tom Johnstone <johnstone at psyphw.psych.wisc.edu>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: warm front
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At 03:11 PM 5/19/00 +1000, you wrote:

>Latest (well ok, 5 hours old) synoptic chart by the BoM has a warm front
>*just* south of Tazzy for those interested.
>
>http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/national/charts/synoptic.shtml
>
>Matt Smith

Yep - also one south west of WA on the same chart.

Yesterday saw a fairly widespread outbreak of severe weather here in the 
USA. Where I am, in Madison, Wisconsin, we had 1 inch hail, thunderstorms 
and then continuous rain for about 18 hours (despite being on the "wrong 
side" of the cold air/warm air boundary - it was a cool 55F). But further 
south they had a number of tornadoes and wilder weather in general. Now, 
the action was triggered, as far as I could see, by a deep low extending 
northward into the midwest. A warm front extended to the east from the low 
- along this warm front there were very active thunderstorms with heavy 
rain and some large hail. Extending southward from the low was a cold 
front, along which tornadic thunderstorms fired up late in the day. It seem 
to my naive weather mind that an approximation to this situation in Western 
Australia might be during the summer with the formation of a deep trough 
extending to the southwest of the state (bringing with it humid air from 
the north), and then the arrival of a cold front from the south west (of 
course, one can only say so much based on the surface chart). The main 
difference that I can see is that here in the USA, they seem to get active 
lows and frontal systems moving in from the Pacific at fairly low 
latitudes, whereas all the frontal activity in WA occurs at high latitudes. 
In fact, the cold front mentioned above moved in to the south of the low, 
which itself came from the SW. So are differences between the weather of 
the Pacific Ocean off the west USA coast and the Indian Ocean off the west 
coast of Aust. coast also an important reason for differences in the severe 
weather of the two countries?
Tom Johnstone
Psychology Department
University of Wisconsin-Madison
johnstone at psyphw.psych.wisc.edu
+1 608 263 4517

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Fri, 19 May 2000 16:04:06 -0400
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: warm front, coming attractions
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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Tom Johnstone wrote:

> Yesterday saw a fairly widespread outbreak of severe weather here in the 
> USA. Where I am, in Madison, Wisconsin, we had 1 inch hail, thunderstorms

> and then continuous rain for about 18 hours (despite being on the "wrong 
> side" of the cold air/warm air boundary - it was a cool 55F). But further

> south they had a number of tornadoes and wilder weather in general. Now, 
> the action was triggered, as far as I could see, by a deep low extending 
> northward into the midwest. A warm front extended to the east from the
low 
> - along this warm front there were very active thunderstorms with heavy 
> rain and some large hail. Extending southward from the low was a cold 

Yes, there are some coming attractions.  I am planning, with Jane's help,
to put a couple of the maps from the above case and  via URL, on the list. 
Also, please take a look at this site for some relatively simple but good
instruction on this subject and the subject of meteorology, fronts, map
analysis, etc.  Follow the index and brows as you would like.  The site:

<http://weather.cod.edu/class.info.html>

The maps, which you will be able to analyze and contour will be assigned a
URL as soon as Jane is able to work it in to here very busy schedule.  I am
very greatful to her for doing this for me.  With these maps, I hope you
will be able to see the characteristics of fronts, such as the pressure
trough that accompanies them, the related wind shift or changes in wind
speed and direction and convergence, the change in temp. and dew point,
etc.  But please do brows the class notes associated with the above URL and
especially the "station model" before attempting the maps.

Les
************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: warm front, coming attractions
Date: Fri, 19 May 2000 22:20:03 +0100
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon - note all times are always GMT
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----- Original Message ----- 
From: Leslie R. Lemon <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, May 19, 2000 9:04 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: warm front, coming attractions

Frontal Attractions!

Sounds interesting <G>

Les

------------------------------------------------------ 
Les Crossan 
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59N 01-30W 
UK Storm Chaser / Severe Weather Enthusiast
http://www.uksevereweather.org.uk
Melbourne Storm Chasers (MSC) - Victoria, AUS 
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/ 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) - AUS 
http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ 
Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) - UK 
Thunderstorm Census Organisation (TCO) - UK 
http://www.torro.org.uk/ 
Email: les.NOSPAMcrossan at virgin.net (remove NOSPAM) 
ICQ: 17296776 
------------------------------------------------------ 

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Date: Fri, 19 May 2000 18:46:29 -0400
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: warm front, coming attractions
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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> Frontal Attractions!
> 
> Sounds interesting <G>
> 
> Les

LOL!!


************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com


essage text written by INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Frontal Attractions!

Sounds interesting <G>

Les<

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From: "The Weather Co." <twc at theweather.com.au>
To: "Maillist Weather doods" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Weather Presenting Job Opportunity....
Date: Sat, 20 May 2000 10:56:46 +1000
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Hi everyone,
                 For those interested in a career of weather presenting,
here is a job opportunity:

****************************************************************************
**********************************************
Are you a weather entheusiast?  Do you have a background or a keen
interested in meteorology?  Have you got what it takes to present the
weather on television?  If you answer yes to these questions, the The
Weather Channel is looking for you.
Send us a VHS tape of yourself and a CV and you could become part of the
team at Australia's only live 24 hour weather channel.
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****************************************************************************
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- Paul G.
____________________
The Weather Company
Level 2, 7 West Street
North Sydney 2060
Phone: (02) 9955 7704
Fax: (02) 9955 1536
twc at theweather.com.au

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From: "Les Crossan" <les.crossan at virgin.net>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: warm front, coming attractions
Date: Sat, 20 May 2000 01:12:04 +0100
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon - note all times are always GMT
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----- Original Message ----- 
From: Leslie R. Lemon <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, May 19, 2000 11:46 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: warm front, coming attractions


> > Frontal Attractions!


I've just been informed by my state rep there are two of them.... <ROTFL>

Les

------------------------------------------------------ 
Les Crossan 
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59N 01-30W 
UK Storm Chaser / Severe Weather Enthusiast
http://www.uksevereweather.org.uk
Melbourne Storm Chasers (MSC) - Victoria, AUS 
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/ 
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) - AUS 
http://www.severeweather.asn.au/ 
Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) - UK 
Thunderstorm Census Organisation (TCO) - UK 
http://www.torro.org.uk/ 
Email: les.NOSPAMcrossan at virgin.net (remove NOSPAM) 
ICQ: 17296776 
------------------------------------------------------ 

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Date: Fri, 19 May 2000 23:42:50 -0400
From: "Leslie R. Lemon" <lrlemon at compuserve.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: warm front
To: "INTERNET:aussie-weather at world.std.com" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
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We have been discussing much about fronts, cyclones, air masses, etc.  As I
mentioned earlier today, I thought some might find it interesting to try
their hand at analysis of a surface map.  In this way it will be possible
to begin to understand many of the principles to be applied when as well as
the characteristics of frontal systems.  As Tom Johnstone today mentioned
we  have had some very interesting weather and weather systems moving
through the central plains of the US this week.  So, I have copied two of
the surface weather maps with the observing station observations reports
included.  However, the data analysis has not been done.  Before attempting
to analyze these two maps, we first need to understand the station plots. 
For this, I urge you to go to this site and study those plots.  

The URL dealing with an explanation of a station plot is shown at:

<http://weather.cod.edu/notes/stnmodel.html>

It would be very helpful to look at some other URLs such as fronts and what
you will look for in attempting to find fronts on a weather map.  The
following will be very important:

<http://weather.cod.edu/sirvatka/fronts.html>

For example, the following characteristics of fronts are given:

Rules for Finding Fronts

Look for a strong temperature gradient (difference). The front will be at
the warm side of the sharpest gradient. 
Likewise, look for a strong dew point gradient. The front will be on the
warm side of the gradient. 
The front will be found in a pressure trough. 
Look at the three hour pressure changes, known a tendencies. With the
passage of the front the pressure will decrease then increase, giving a
trace which looks like a check mark, or check tendency. 
Look for a sharp change in the wind direction. A cyclonic shear in the wind
usually indicates frontal passage. 
Check weather and cloud patterns that are usually associated with different
kinds of fronts. 

That is just an example.  Please look at that URL in detail.  Also, you
might want to brows through this unit:
<http://weather.cod.edu/notes/outline.105.html>  or much more of the
material at:
<http://weather.cod.edu/classnotes.html>

Now for the maps themselves:

<http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/05_17_00.htm>
<http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/05_18_00.htm >

Note that temperatures are in degrees F (red)  and dew point in degrees F
(green), pressure is in the upper right of the station model.  However,
these pressures are referred to as "altimeter settings" and are in inches
of mercury.  For example, in the first chart you will find a station marked
'MAF ' at the bottom left of the map.  The pressure reads "970" which
stands for 29.70 inches of mercury, which is the atmospheric pressure.  you
could begin by drawing lines of constant pressure or "isobars" and analyze
the pressure first for 950 (nearly the lowest pressure on the map and of
the surface cyclone).  Then contour 952 or 953, and at every .02 or .03
inches, that is for example, 950, 953, 956, etc.  You will note that most
of the fronts pass through the cyclone center and the fronts themselves are
a pressure trough.  Next you could find the wind shifts and then contour
lines of constant temperature (isotherms), or constant dew point
(isodrosotherms).  But you will not find the pressure trends shown on these
station models.  At any rate, have fun with both these maps if you would
like. 

But realize also that there is much that I have left out and could not
possibly cover here.  Otherwise I would be teaching a class on synoptic
surface analysis.  It would take a semester and more to do that.  Besides
you probably would not like me as an instructor and would learn very
little...LOL!!!  Most importantly, have fun!

Les

************************
Leslie R. Lemon
Radar, Severe Storms, & Research Meteorologist
Tel. 816-373-3533, 816-213-3237
E-Mail: lrlemon at compuserve.com
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From: "Lyle Pakula" <remote at leski.com.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: National Climate Centre predicts warm and dry winter for South Eastern Australia
Date: Sat, 20 May 2000 13:48:34 +1000
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Hi Anthony,

For sure it would be good/awesome/unreal/<insert all positive adjectives
here> if they tracked along there long term average latitude, but they have
been consistantly south for the past several years, as I'm sure your aware
;-)

Cheers, Lyle.

-  - ---==( lyle_pakula at hotmail.com )==--- -  -
     .
    / \  .
   /~~~\/ \ " No Friends On A Powder Day "
  /     \  \
 /       \  \





----- Original Message -----
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at flatrate.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Sent: Friday, May 19, 2000 7:30 PM
Subject: Re: aus-wx: National Climate Centre predicts warm and dry winter
for South Eastern Australia


> Hi Lyle,
>
> I actually thought the Baric Ridge has been further south than usual.
> Normally during winter, the Baric Ridge will sit somewhere around the
> 30S mark.  This gives Brisbane the more characteristic (and dreaded),
> SW'lies (and it's not unusual to have them at gale force).  If the Baric
> Ridge were to sit at this level, I would have thought it'd mean a much
> more fun winter for the SE Australian's - as it'd allow the passage of
> fronts, and also allow cyclongensis to occur more frequently down near
> Victoria and Tasmania.
>
> This isn't an attempt to jump the gun - so don't worry :-)
>
> My 2c worth.
>
> Lyle Pakula wrote:
> >
> > Hi Blair,
> >
> > Just a comment on the position of the high's - From memory fo the past
three
> > years, I can't remember the ridge's actually remaining as north as they
> > currently are for this period of time - the period I refer to is the
past
> > week or two. Before anyone jumps the gun, I know there not actually that
far
> > North but being above the Prom is a good enough sign for me. Hell,
Melbourne
> > had westerlies in the last high! Although the avg temps and rain is
> > disapointing,  I'm sure the snow people among us will take anything as a
> > good sign to wax their equipment :)
> >
> > Cheers, Lyle.
> >
> <snip>
> --
> Anthony Cornelius
> Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> (ASWA)
> (07) 3390 4812
> 14 Kinsella St
> Belmont, Brisbane
> QLD, 4153
> Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
> reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

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Date: Sat, 20 May 2000 15:00:38 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at flatrate.net.au>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: National Climate Centre predicts warm and dry winter for 
 South Eastern Australia
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi Lyle,

Perhaps a small breakdown of communication here :)  In the original
email, the basis of sending it was to put the point forward that the
Baric Ridge had been further south then normal for a few years.  I
thought you were mentioning that the Baric Ridge had been consistently
north for the past years, but you were referring to the past 2 weeks. 
Although I think the Baric Ridge is approximately where it should be
(but certainly, more persistant!)

My apologies for that!

Lyle Pakula wrote:
> 
> Hi Anthony,
> 
> For sure it would be good/awesome/unreal/<insert all positive adjectives
> here> if they tracked along there long term average latitude, but they have
> been consistantly south for the past several years, as I'm sure your aware
> ;-)
> 
> Cheers, Lyle.
> 
> -  - ---==( lyle_pakula at hotmail.com )==--- -  -
>      .
>     / \  .
>    /~~~\/ \ " No Friends On A Powder Day "
>   /     \  \
>  /       \  \
> 
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Anthony Cornelius <cyclone at flatrate.net.au>
> To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
> Sent: Friday, May 19, 2000 7:30 PM
> Subject: Re: aus-wx: National Climate Centre predicts warm and dry winter
> for South Eastern Australia
> 
> > Hi Lyle,
> >
> > I actually thought the Baric Ridge has been further south than usual.
> > Normally during winter, the Baric Ridge will sit somewhere around the
> > 30S mark.  This gives Brisbane the more characteristic (and dreaded),
> > SW'lies (and it's not unusual to have them at gale force).  If the Baric
> > Ridge were to sit at this level, I would have thought it'd mean a much
> > more fun winter for the SE Australian's - as it'd allow the passage of
> > fronts, and also allow cyclongensis to occur more frequently down near
> > Victoria and Tasmania.
> >
> > This isn't an attempt to jump the gun - so don't worry :-)
> >
> > My 2c worth.
> >
> > Lyle Pakula wrote:
> > >
> > > Hi Blair,
> > >
> > > Just a comment on the position of the high's - From memory fo the past
> three
> > > years, I can't remember the ridge's actually remaining as north as they
> > > currently are for this period of time - the period I refer to is the
> past
> > > week or two. Before anyone jumps the gun, I know there not actually that
> far
> > > North but being above the Prom is a good enough sign for me. Hell,
> Melbourne
> > > had westerlies in the last high! Although the avg temps and rain is
> > > disapointing,  I'm sure the snow people among us will take anything as a
> > > good sign to wax their equipment :)
> > >
> > > Cheers, Lyle.
> > >
> > <snip>
> > --
> > Anthony Cornelius
> > Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
> > (ASWA)
> > (07) 3390 4812
> > 14 Kinsella St
> > Belmont, Brisbane
> > QLD, 4153
> > Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
> > reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
> > http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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> >  message.
> >  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> 
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>  message.
>  -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

-- 
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: Blair Trewin <blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU>
Subject: aus-wx: Just to get everyone excited...
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Sat, 20 May 2000 15:19:47 +1000 (EST)
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Just to get everyone excited, day 7 of the latest ECMWF run (next
Friday night) has a cold outbreak with sub-524 thicknesses reaching
the Victorian coast and sub-520 just west of Tasmania....

I'll believe it when I see it, but we haven't seen anything quite
like this in a model for a while. 

Blair Trewin
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X-Sender: disarm at mail.braenet.com.au
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Date: Sat, 20 May 2000 15:45:14 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith <disarm at braenet.com.au>
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Just to get everyone excited...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

MRF is hinting at something next thursday and GASP has thickness of about
540 over sydney and around 530ish (if i recall) throughout central VIC

Matt Smith


>Just to get everyone excited, day 7 of the latest ECMWF run (next
>Friday night) has a cold outbreak with sub-524 thicknesses reaching
>the Victorian coast and sub-520 just west of Tasmania....
>
>I'll believe it when I see it, but we haven't seen anything quite
>like this in a model for a while. 
>
>Blair Trewin
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>
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From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Snow next weekend?
Date: Sat, 20 May 2000 06:35:19 GMT
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The EC and GASP 12z runs last night are going ballistic in developing
a major cold outbreak over SE Aust late next Friday. If the 7 day EC
forecast for next Friday night came true, there would we widespread
snow to low levels across SA, southern NSW, Vic and Tas. It has a deep
1000/500hPa thickness trough aligned north/south through Mt Gambier
with the 524 line running through SE SA and SW Vic. GASP for the same
time is a bit quicker and slightly less dramatic, with the trough
aligned NNW/SSE through Sale -- the 532 line only comes up to about
Hobart, but the 536 loops around most of central western NSW. NOGAPS
is only available to Thursday night and shows the 528 line coming up
to west of Cape Grim at that time. MRF won't be available til later
this evening. 

Of course, the models were pretty consistent in forecasting a somewhat
less substantial cold outbreak for last weekend when they were 7 days
out, and then weakened it off to nothing over ensuing runs. However,
given the current lack of interesting weather, this at least gives us
something to watch!


-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather News & Links
http://ausweather.simplenet.com
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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

Date: Sat, 20 May 2000 11:43:37 -0700
From: Lindsay <writer at lisp.com.au>
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Position of highs
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Yeah Lyle, I kinda agree, they are a touch more north than they have
been, not that they are very far north as you say but hey, we've gotta
say something positive about the upcoming season. 

Lindsay Pearce


Lyle Pakula wrote:
> 
> Hi Blair,
> 
> Just a comment on the position of the high's - From memory fo the past three
> years, I can't remember the ridge's actually remaining as north as they
> currently are for this period of time - the period I refer to is the past
> week or two. Before anyone jumps the gun, I know there not actually that far
> North but being above the Prom is a good enough sign for me. Hell, Melbourne
> had westerlies in the last high! Although the avg temps and rain is
> disapointing,  I'm sure the snow people among us will take anything as a
> good sign to wax their equipment :)
> 
> Cheers, Lyle.
>

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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------

From: "McDonald" <mcdonald at one.net.au>
To: <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Forecast Cold Outbreak
Date: Sat, 20 May 2000 17:14:30 +1000
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<x-html>
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
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<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Hi all,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>As luck would have it, the models are going for our 
first really nice cold outbreak in SE Australia the weekend that I am flying up 
to Brisbane.&nbsp; The models have been hot and cold (no pun intended) in terms 
of their forecasting of late.&nbsp; Earlier this week a cold outbreak was 
forecast&nbsp;for this coming Wednesday but that only lasted one and a half days 
on the models before it changed to the current forecast of a BIG cold outbreak 
for Friday and Saturday.&nbsp; Knowing my recent run of&nbsp;luck, we'll get 
snow in Melbourne while I'm away :-(.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Andrew McDonald</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>(Macca - MSC)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>
X-Originating-IP: [203.23.72.1]
From: "Lyle Pakula" <lyle_pakula at hotmail.com>
To: "Aussie-Weather Mailing List" <aussie-weather at world.std.com>
Subject: aus-wx: Snow Forecast
Date: Sat, 20 May 2000 14:17:57 +1000
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Hi All,

Not sure if everyone is aware of this new site, but Rob Davies (memory?)
from NZ was producing snow-forecasts for NZ and Aus. Well someone has pumped
him full of money and produced a very good snow forecast site, using higher
resoloution grid models derived from NOAA. Check out;

www.snow-forecast.com


Cheers, Lyle.

-  - ---==( lyle_pakula at hotmail.com )==--- -  -
     .
    / \  .
   /~~~\/ \ " No Friends On A Powder Day "
  /     \  \
 /       \  \





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 -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------