From: "Keith & Jason" To: Subject: aus-wx: STA out for WA's SW Date: Thu, 11 May 2000 12:14:51 +0800 Organization: Karratha AWS X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2919.6600 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

IDW10W00
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE

PRIORITY
FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE
Issued at 9:55 am WST on Thursday, 11 May 2000

People in the Lower West, South West Districts and adjacent Southern Coastal and
Great Southern Districts, including the Perth metropolitan area, Mandurah and
Bunbury, are advised that there is a risk of severe thunderstorms during today.

Storms may be accompanied by hail and strong winds that could result in damage
to property. A heavy hailstorm caused minor damage in the Kelmscott area about
8:00 am this morning.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should keep a lookout for
thunderstorms and if storms approach secure loose items, move vehicles under
cover, then stay indoors until the storms have passed. Driving conditions may be
hazardous.

This Thunderstorm Advice will be updated at 2:00 pm.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Im surprised they didnt issue a STA earlier as the cold pool was moving NE since yesterday towards the SW and looking better with each sat update....

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/satimages/gmsc.jpg <----current sat pic shows some very nice cells with the large cell now crossing the coast at Mandurah on radar 70kms south of Perth. Broad showing some nice green and some pink intensity .

Regards

Jason

Karratha W.A
http://www.kisser.net.au/kevans/weather/

From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: aus-wx: Immuttable Laws of Forecasts and Storm Chasing. Date: Thu, 11 May 2000 19:30:24 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com * Just about everyone you meet has seen larger hail then you have. * Your work colleagues never ask you for forecasts over the next few hours, it is always months in the future. * With fast moving troughs, storms will form 200-300km south of you one day and 200-300 north of you the next. * Troughs tend to pass overhead at 4-5am in the morning. * Stalled fronts / toughs always occur elsewhere. * The same seabreeze that kills off convection in your place, will enhance storms elsewhere. * You will always be remembered for the incorrect forecasts and not the correct ones. * Somebody will always ask you " will it rain on the weekend" when isolated thunderstorms are possible. It will be fine at your house, but the only weak storm in the area will give a brief shower on your workmates place. On Monday they will announce that your forecast was wrong. * You look at the models and make a brave prediction in the newsgroup about severe weather and the system always slips away to the SE. * You look at the models and are sure that severe weather is a possibility in a few days, but hold off on a message to the newsgroup. Somebody else will jump in and predict the event ( which will happen ) and be acclaimed a model champion. * In weather discussions at work somebody will say " Tim Baily is always right ". * A forecast of Thur: Thunderstorms, Friday: Thunderstorms, Saturday: Thunderstorms, Sunday: Thunderstorms really means Thursday: Thunderstorms, Friday: Severe Storms possible, Saturday: Cool SE winds and high pressure gloom. Sunday: Sunny periods developing with light E winds. * Storm features such as Tornadoes and Large Hail are usually observed by those least interested in them. * East coast lows always develop just 100km too far south, no matter where you are on the NSW coast. * You chase for over 600km and the storms are always just a little bit further north. If you stay overnight the trough will move NE. If you return home it will stall exactly where you were yesterday. * The chances of severe storms increases if your video camera batteries are left uncharged. * Every second person you met who has holidayed in far north Queensland has had there vocation spoilt by a Tropical Cyclone. * You have to go on business trips several times a year from Sydney to Canberra, it is always dry and sunny. The only time somebody else gets to go in your place they get snow and sleet for much of the way. * Even though you have been on several plane trips you have never landed or taken off in rain let alone storms. But all your friends seem to have flown with lightning flashing all around them. * When at last you have a decent trough that has not become a rain event, and the jet is in perfect position, and the middle and upper layers are cool, dry and cloudless. It will mean that prefrontal NW winds with zero to minus dew points will develop. * You have resigned yourself to the fact that your area is experiencing a severe drought, in fact the number of rainless days record may tumble soon. You will then get a weak shower with 0.2mm of rain. * Lift Index figures increase by 2 every 24 hours. For example a model which Predicts -4 LI's for Saturday on Thursday, will predict -2 by Friday, and 0 on Saturday the chase day. * Lift Index areas will always drift NW of you, no matter where you are. * Potential CG's know when you are looking at them, fool them by panning the camera in the opposite direction and they will discharge. * You are hot on the heels of a supercell. After driving many kilometres through open country, you will eventually the catch the storm in an area of forest. * The storm that seemingly takes ages to reach you is gone within minutes. * If you go to Darwin to witness the spectacular pre monsoonal Thunderstorms an early season monsoonal rain mass will set in. * You are waiting for a great night time lightning display, it will occur on the only night of the year that you have family commitments. Michael Thompson http://thunder.simplenet.com +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Zac" To: Subject: Re: aus-wx: Immuttable Laws of Forecasts and Storm Chasing. Date: Thu, 11 May 2000 20:08:15 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2615.200 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Absolutely spot on Michael ............lol!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Max ----- Original Message ----- From: Michael Thompson To: Sent: Thursday, May 11, 2000 7:30 PM Subject: aus-wx: Immuttable Laws of Forecasts and Storm Chasing. > * Just about everyone you meet has seen larger hail then you have. > > * Your work colleagues never ask you for forecasts over the next few hours, > it is > always months in the future. > > * With fast moving troughs, storms will form 200-300km south of you one day > and > 200-300 north of you the next. > > * Troughs tend to pass overhead at 4-5am in the morning. > > * Stalled fronts / toughs always occur elsewhere. > > * The same seabreeze that kills off convection in your place, will enhance > storms > elsewhere. > > * You will always be remembered for the incorrect forecasts and not the > correct > ones. > > * Somebody will always ask you " will it rain on the weekend" when isolated > thunderstorms are possible. It will be fine at your house, but the only weak > storm in the area > will give a brief shower on your workmates place. On Monday they will > announce that your > forecast was wrong. > > * You look at the models and make a brave prediction in the newsgroup about > severe > weather and the system always slips away to the SE. > > * You look at the models and are sure that severe weather is a possibility > in a > few days, but hold off on a message to the newsgroup. Somebody else will > jump in and predict the > event ( which will happen ) and be acclaimed a model champion. > > > * In weather discussions at work somebody will say " Tim Baily is always > right ". > > * A forecast of Thur: Thunderstorms, Friday: Thunderstorms, Saturday: > Thunderstorms, Sunday: Thunderstorms really means Thursday: Thunderstorms, > Friday: Severe Storms > possible, Saturday: Cool SE winds and high pressure gloom. Sunday: Sunny > periods developing with light E winds. > > * Storm features such as Tornadoes and Large Hail are usually observed by > those > least interested in them. > > * East coast lows always develop just 100km too far south, no matter where > you are > on the NSW coast. > > * You chase for over 600km and the storms are always just a little bit > further north. If > you stay overnight the trough will move NE. If you return home it will stall > exactly where you were > yesterday. > > * The chances of severe storms increases if your video camera batteries are > left > uncharged. > > * Every second person you met who has holidayed in far north Queensland has > had there vocation > spoilt by a Tropical Cyclone. > > * You have to go on business trips several times a year from Sydney to > Canberra, > it is always dry and sunny. The only time somebody else gets to go in your > place they get > snow and sleet for much of the way. > > * Even though you have been on several plane trips you have never landed or > taken > off in rain let alone storms. But all your friends seem to have flown with > lightning flashing > all around them. > > > * When at last you have a decent trough that has not become a rain event, > and the jet > is in perfect position, and the middle and upper layers are cool, dry and > cloudless. It will > mean that prefrontal NW winds with zero to minus dew points will develop. > > * You have resigned yourself to the fact that your area is experiencing a > severe > drought, in fact the number of rainless days record may tumble soon. You > will then get a weak > shower with 0.2mm of rain. > > * Lift Index figures increase by 2 every 24 hours. For example a model which > Predicts -4 LI's for Saturday on Thursday, will predict -2 by Friday, and 0 > on Saturday the chase > day. > > * Lift Index areas will always drift NW of you, no matter where you are. > > * Potential CG's know when you are looking at them, fool them by panning the > camera in the opposite direction and they will discharge. > > * You are hot on the heels of a supercell. After driving many kilometres > through open country, > you will eventually the catch the storm in an area of forest. > > * The storm that seemingly takes ages to reach you is gone within minutes. > > * If you go to Darwin to witness the spectacular pre monsoonal Thunderstorms > an > early season monsoonal rain mass will set in. > > * You are waiting for a great night time lightning display, it will occur on > the only night of the year that you have family commitments. > > > Michael Thompson > http://thunder.simplenet.com > > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ From: "Michael Thompson" To: Subject: aus-wx: OzWind Site Date: Thu, 11 May 2000 19:15:29 +1000 X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211 Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Handy site to know, if it is updated live that is !!!!! Thanks to Adrian. ----- Original Message ----- From: Adrian Fox To: Sent: Thursday, 11 May 2000 13:46 Subject: Hi & more > > > Hi Michael > > just came across your site and love the pics ... thanks! > > Also you might be interested in the site Ozwind showing wind speed and > direction. > http://www.ozwind.com.au > > You might find it a useful resoures and might like to put it under your > weather links > > Cheers > Adrian > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ X-Sender: jdeguara at pop.ihug.com.au X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.2.2 Date: Thu, 11 May 2000 21:26:20 +1000 To: aussie-weather at world.std.com From: Jimmy Deguara Subject: aus-wx: feedback - gmsd Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Somebody has been whispering in the ears of the producers of the GMSD site - thanks a lot. Great to see the states put in. At first I pressed reload thinking the images had stuffed up and then when it occurred again it clicked in my mind. Much easier now to compare where cloud masses and hence storms are. Jimmy Deguara ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------- Jimmy Deguara from Schofields, Sydney President of Australian Severe Weather Association Inc. (ASWA) http://severeweather.asn.au e-mail: jdeguara at ihug.com.au homepage with Michael Bath note new URL http://australiasevereweather.com/ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ Date: Thu, 11 May 2000 22:04:20 +1000 From: Anthony Cornelius X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I) X-Accept-Language: en To: aussie-weather at world.std.com Subject: Re: aus-wx: Immuttable Laws of Forecasts and Storm Chasing. Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com ROFL!!! Good one Michael! You should put this up on your website...it's terrific! Michael Thompson wrote: > * Just about everyone you meet has seen larger hail then you have. > > * Your work colleagues never ask you for forecasts over the next few hours, > it is > always months in the future. > > * With fast moving troughs, storms will form 200-300km south of you one day > and > 200-300 north of you the next. > > * Troughs tend to pass overhead at 4-5am in the morning. > > * Stalled fronts / toughs always occur elsewhere. > > * The same seabreeze that kills off convection in your place, will enhance > storms > elsewhere. > > * You will always be remembered for the incorrect forecasts and not the > correct > ones. > > * Somebody will always ask you " will it rain on the weekend" when isolated > thunderstorms are possible. It will be fine at your house, but the only weak > storm in the area > will give a brief shower on your workmates place. On Monday they will > announce that your > forecast was wrong. > > * You look at the models and make a brave prediction in the newsgroup about > severe > weather and the system always slips away to the SE. > > * You look at the models and are sure that severe weather is a possibility > in a > few days, but hold off on a message to the newsgroup. Somebody else will > jump in and predict the > event ( which will happen ) and be acclaimed a model champion. > > * In weather discussions at work somebody will say " Tim Baily is always > right ". > > * A forecast of Thur: Thunderstorms, Friday: Thunderstorms, Saturday: > Thunderstorms, Sunday: Thunderstorms really means Thursday: Thunderstorms, > Friday: Severe Storms > possible, Saturday: Cool SE winds and high pressure gloom. Sunday: Sunny > periods developing with light E winds. > > * Storm features such as Tornadoes and Large Hail are usually observed by > those > least interested in them. > > * East coast lows always develop just 100km too far south, no matter where > you are > on the NSW coast. > > * You chase for over 600km and the storms are always just a little bit > further north. If > you stay overnight the trough will move NE. If you return home it will stall > exactly where you were > yesterday. > > * The chances of severe storms increases if your video camera batteries are > left > uncharged. > > * Every second person you met who has holidayed in far north Queensland has > had there vocation > spoilt by a Tropical Cyclone. > > * You have to go on business trips several times a year from Sydney to > Canberra, > it is always dry and sunny. The only time somebody else gets to go in your > place they get > snow and sleet for much of the way. > > * Even though you have been on several plane trips you have never landed or > taken > off in rain let alone storms. But all your friends seem to have flown with > lightning flashing > all around them. > > * When at last you have a decent trough that has not become a rain event, > and the jet > is in perfect position, and the middle and upper layers are cool, dry and > cloudless. It will > mean that prefrontal NW winds with zero to minus dew points will develop. > > * You have resigned yourself to the fact that your area is experiencing a > severe > drought, in fact the number of rainless days record may tumble soon. You > will then get a weak > shower with 0.2mm of rain. > > * Lift Index figures increase by 2 every 24 hours. For example a model which > Predicts -4 LI's for Saturday on Thursday, will predict -2 by Friday, and 0 > on Saturday the chase > day. > > * Lift Index areas will always drift NW of you, no matter where you are. > > * Potential CG's know when you are looking at them, fool them by panning the > camera in the opposite direction and they will discharge. > > * You are hot on the heels of a supercell. After driving many kilometres > through open country, > you will eventually the catch the storm in an area of forest. > > * The storm that seemingly takes ages to reach you is gone within minutes. > > * If you go to Darwin to witness the spectacular pre monsoonal Thunderstorms > an > early season monsoonal rain mass will set in. > > * You are waiting for a great night time lightning display, it will occur on > the only night of the year that you have family commitments. > > Michael Thompson > http://thunder.simplenet.com > > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your > message. > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------ -- Anthony Cornelius Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) (07) 3390 4812 14 Kinsella St Belmont, Brisbane QLD, 4153 Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at http://www.severeweather.asn.au +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your message. -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------