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Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx] |
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Monday, 3 April 2000 |
From Subject
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001 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Tessi (22P) map animation updated TCA#10
002 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] 21S/HUDAH Update
003 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] Storms in Sydney tomorrow ? 21S/HUDAH Update
004 Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com] New Northam Tornado Pictures
005 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Tessi (22P) map animation updated TCA#11
006 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Tessi (22P) Cat 2 map animation updated TCA#14
007 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Tessi (22P) Crossing coast map animation updated TCA#15
008 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Third TC in the Coral?
009 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] 21S/HUDAH Update
010 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Tessi Underrated? 130km/h gusts in Townsville
011 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Tessi (22P) Cat 1 map animation updated TCA#16
012 "DAMIEN HOWES" [dhowes at powerup.com.au] BSCH Picture Update wall clouds
013 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Tessi (22P) Cat 1 map animation updated TCA#17
014 "DAMIEN HOWES" [dhowes at powerup.com.au] BSCH Picture Update wall clouds
015 Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au] !!! Storm Chase !!!
016 "Dr David Jones" [d.jones at bom.gov.au] SSTs
017 "Dr David Jones" [d.jones at bom.gov.au] amazing rainfall patterns..
018 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] amazing rainfall patterns..
019 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] Ex-Tessi - final map animation.
020 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) (fwd) Televison program on Australian weather
021 "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net] Ex-Tessi - final map animation.
022 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au] Aussie Weather Guidelines
023 Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au] TC 23P - Coral Sea
024 davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au Re: aus-wx Storms Grenfell, Caragabal.
025 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] Storms now visible west of the Illawarra
026 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Very heavy rain at Townsville, continuing
027 "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net] (fwd) Televison program on Australian weather
028 "dann weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.a Storms now visible west of the Illawarra
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 00:16:41 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Tessi (22P) map animation updated TCA#10
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
The TC Tessi map animation at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/Tessi2Anim.htm has been updated with BoM
TCA#10.
According to the BoM, Tessi has taken on a more W track towards the coast
between Townsville and Lucinda at 18 km/hr, CP now 988 hPa (mb), with max
wind gusts to 120 km/hr.
It should cross the coast in a few hours.
BoM TCA#10 and JTWC#4 pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
>IDW50Q00
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
>warning.
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 10
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>For 11pm EST on Sunday the 2nd of April 2000
>
>A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between
>Innisfail and Bowen.
>
>Tropical Cyclone TESSI, Category 1, is moving closer to the north Queensland
>coast.
>
>At 11 pm EST, TESSI was located about 95 kilometres east-southeast of Lucinda
>and 80 kilometres NE of Townsville moving west at about 18 kilometres per
>hour.
>
>Gales are expected to develop overnight about the coast and islands between
>Innisfail and Bowen. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast between
>Townsville and Lucinda during the early hours of Monday morning.
>
>Tides are expected to be slightly above normal but will not exceed the high
>water mark.
>
>Heavy to flood rains are likely overnight about the coast and nearby ranges
>between Innisfail and Mackay.
>
>Details of Tropical Cyclone TESSI, Category 1, for 11pm EST
>Central Pressure : 988 Hectopascals
>Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
> latitude 18.7 degrees south
> longitude 147.2 degrees east
> about 95 kilometres east-southeast of Lucinda
> and 80 kilometres northeast of Townsville
>Recent Movement : west at about 18 kilometres per hour
>Maximum wind gusts : 120 kilometres per hour
>
>
>
>People between Innisfail and Bowen should remain inside until the cyclone has
>passed and listen to the next advice at 2am EST.
>
>223
>WTPS31 PGTW 021500
>SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
>IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
>1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (TESSI) WARNING NR 004
> 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
> ---
> WARNING POSITION:
> 021200Z5 --- NEAR 18.6S5 148.0E3
> MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
> POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
> POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
> PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 040 NM ELSEWHERE
> REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 148.0E3
> ---
> FORECASTS:
> 12 HRS, VALID AT:
> 030000Z3 --- 19.0S0 146.2E3
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
> DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> OVER WATER
> 030 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
> VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
> ---
> 24 HRS, VALID AT:
> 031200Z6 --- 19.3S3 144.8E7
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
> DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
> VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
> ---
> 36 HRS, VALID AT:
> 040000Z4 --- 19.4S4 143.6E4
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
> DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
> ---
>REMARKS:
>021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 147.5E7.
>TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22P (TESSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 82 NM
>EAST-NORTHEAST OF TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
>SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
>POSITION IS BASED ON 021130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
>WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
>OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS, AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM THE
>TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA RADAR INDICATES THAT TC 22P (TESSI) IS EAST OF
>PALM ISLAND WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST TO
>SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
>DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION AND DECREASING SYSTEM ORGANIZATION OVER
>THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC 22P (TESSI) IS EXPECTED TO TRACK UNDER THE
>STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
>SOUTHWEST OF NEW CALEDONIA. TC 22P (TESSI) SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL AT
>THE 12-HOUR POINT ABOUT 28 NM NORTHWEST OF TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA.
>THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DECREASE INTENSITY AND TO DISSIPATE OVER
>LAND BY THE 36-HOUR POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
>021200Z5 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z6 (DTG 030152Z1) AND
>031500Z9 (DTG 031352Z4). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH)
>WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
002
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 00:35:35 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: 21S/HUDAH Update
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id KAA19105
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
Some of you may be interested in TC Hudah, which is due to make landfall in
Madagascar within the next 6 hours. With CP 905 hPa and winds gusting to
150 knots (about 280 km/hr), this is a Cat 5 monster of a cyclone, which
will have disasterous consequences for Madagascar which has already been
battered by two major cyclones in the last two months.
Email and JTWC and MFR LA REUNION warnings pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
> Dear all, 21S is already the strongest TC west of 60�E since
>26S/ITELLE which reached a max int of 140kt just east of 60, but 21S
>migth turn out to be a disaster for NE Madagascar. In their last sat
>bull both JTWC and KGWC assessed the int at T6.5 whereas MFR gives it
>T7.0 at 06utc hence giving it the status of Very Intense cyclone( cat 5).
> For them it is the strongest TC since 13S/GERALDA which they gave
>T7.0-, while approaching TROMELIN in JAN 94 whereas JTWC gave it
>T7.0+(145kt). Note its was well before they adopted the 0.88 factor hence
>maybe they will raise the value for GERALDA somewhat. There is no doubt
>that today cyclones are much better analysed in SH and we gradually are
>coming to the conclusion that actually they are stronger than believed
>before and that extreme int (T6.5/T7.5) are really possible. Hope that
>Malagasy authorities have been serious this time!!!!!!!!!!!! Patrick
>631
>WTXS31 PGTW 021500
>SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
>IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
>1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 021
> 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
> ---
> WARNING POSITION:
> 021200Z5 --- NEAR 15.5S1 51.6E2
> MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
> POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
> POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
> PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
> RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 015 NM ELSEWHERE
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> OVER WATER
> 060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
> REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 51.6E2
> ---
> FORECASTS:
> 12 HRS, VALID AT:
> 030000Z3 --- 15.1S7 49.5E8
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
> RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM OVER WATER
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> OVER WATER
> 010 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> OVER WATER
> 050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
> VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
> ---
> 24 HRS, VALID AT:
> 031200Z6 --- 14.9S4 47.5E6
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> OVER WATER
> 045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
> VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
> ---
> 36 HRS, VALID AT:
> 040000Z4 --- 14.8S3 45.1E0
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 040 NM ELSEWHERE
> VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
> ---
> EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
> 48 HRS, VALID AT:
> 041200Z7 --- 14.9S4 42.7E3
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 040 NM ELSEWHERE
> ---
>REMARKS:
>021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 51.1E7.
>TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM
>EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTALAHA, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
>KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
>021130Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
>INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127
>KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
>SLIGHTLY WEAKENING SYSTEM AS TC 21S BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND.
>IMAGERY NOW REVEALS A BANDING EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE
>EYEWALL DECREASING IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE MID-LEVEL
>RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM MOZAMBIQUE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
>OVER MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE, TC 21S SHOULD
>CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE 24 TO 36-HOUR POINT.
>AFTERWARDS, TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A
>SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
>MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL AT THE 6-HOUR POINT,
>APPROXIMATELY 25 NM SOUTH OF ANTALAHA, MADAGASCAR. AFTER MOVING INTO
>THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, TC 21S SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT ABOUT 90
>KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 30 FEET. NEXT
>WARNINGS AT 030300Z6 (DTG 030151Z0) AND 031500Z9 (DTG 031351Z3).
>REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (TESSI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
>TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
>430
>WTIO30 FMEE 020600
>RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
>TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST BULLLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
>4.A NUMBER OF BULLETIN : 17/12/19992000
>1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE (HUDAH)
>2.A POSITION AT 0600 UTC 02/04/2000 : 15.7S/52.9E (FIFTEEN
> DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL NINE
> DEGREES EAST).
>3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 7.0/7.0 /D 0.5/12 H
>4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 905 HPA
>5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 120 KT
>6.A ESTENSION OF WIND OF 30 KT AND OVER :
> NE30: 280 KM SE30: 380 KM
> SW30: 380 KM NW30: 280 KM
>7.A 1ST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE/AVERAGE DIAM) : 1008 HPA / 800 KM
>8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
>1.B FORECAST 12H : 14.8S / 50.4E FI=7.0
>
>
>2.B FORECAST 24H : 14.0S / 48.0E FI= OVERLAND
>3.B FORECAST 48H : 13.7S / 44.0E FI=4.0
>
>
>4.B OTHER INFORMATIONS : TRACK SHOULD MAINTAIN
> WESTNORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON THE NORTHERN
> EDGE OF A HIGH.=
>793
>WTIO20 FMEE 020600
>
>PAN PAN
>HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
>ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION
>02/04/2000 AT 0600 UTC
>WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
>WARNING NUMBER : 034/12 (SOUTH-WEST IL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 06
>00 UTC
>MOVEMENT : WESTNORTHWEST 14 KT
>MENACED AREAS : SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 160 NM
> RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 200 MN OF THE
> CENTRE IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
>HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/120 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
> WITHIN 30 MN RADIUS OF THE CENTRE.
>STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60
> NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE.
>GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 120
> NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE.
>NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN
> 150 NM OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
>SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
>FORECASTED POSITION 02/04/2000 AT 1800 UTC: 14.8 SOUTH/50.4 EAST
> STATIONARY INTENSITY.
>FORECASTED POSITION 03/04/2000 AT 0600 UTC: 14.0 SOUTH/48.0 EAST
>
>
>OTHER INFORMATIONS : THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED DURING LAST
> NIGHT. IT SHOULD LAND ON MADAGASCAR IN THE FIRST PART OF THE
> NEXT NIGHT, IN THE VICINITY OF ANTALAHA.=
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
003
X-Sender: disarm at mail.braenet.com.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Pro Version 3.0 (32)
Date: Mon, 03 Apr 2000 01:03:01 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Storms in Sydney tomorrow ? 21S/HUDAH Update
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id KAA20899
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Storms in Sydney tomorrow are a likely bet.
NE wind,
temps around 26-28
500 temps of around -12
70knot odd Jet at 250
-3 LI
The cloud from the trough cleared late afternoon and there are clear skies
with small fog areas at the moment. A spectacular sunset was seen in sydney
today, anyone get photos ? (i was at work)
Keep your eyes open tomorrow people, I have the day off ( woohoo ) and will
be chasing if things are still looking good.
Those poor people in madagascar... even worse, i believe with the last 2
cyclones to hit there, all the landmines around the country got uncovered
by flood waters and spread all around the place.. and all the maps they had
of where the landmines were are now useless :( , that country sure needs a
break from this kind of wx.
Anyway im off to bed.
Matt Smith
>Hi All.
>
>Some of you may be interested in TC Hudah, which is due to make landfall in
>Madagascar within the next 6 hours. With CP 905 hPa and winds gusting to
>150 knots (about 280 km/hr), this is a Cat 5 monster of a cyclone, which
>will have disasterous consequences for Madagascar which has already been
>battered by two major cyclones in the last two months.
>
>Email and JTWC and MFR LA REUNION warnings pasted below.
>
>Regards,
>Carl.
>
>> Dear all, 21S is already the strongest TC west of 60�E since
>>26S/ITELLE which reached a max int of 140kt just east of 60, but 21S
>>migth turn out to be a disaster for NE Madagascar. In their last sat
>>bull both JTWC and KGWC assessed the int at T6.5 whereas MFR gives it
>>T7.0 at 06utc hence giving it the status of Very Intense cyclone( cat 5).
>> For them it is the strongest TC since 13S/GERALDA which they gave
>>T7.0-, while approaching TROMELIN in JAN 94 whereas JTWC gave it
>>T7.0+(145kt). Note its was well before they adopted the 0.88 factor hence
>>maybe they will raise the value for GERALDA somewhat. There is no doubt
>>that today cyclones are much better analysed in SH and we gradually are
>>coming to the conclusion that actually they are stronger than believed
>>before and that extreme int (T6.5/T7.5) are really possible. Hope that
>>Malagasy authorities have been serious this time!!!!!!!!!!!! Patrick
>
>
>>631
>>WTXS31 PGTW 021500
>>SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
>>IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
>>1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNING NR 021
>> 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
>> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
>> ---
>> WARNING POSITION:
>> 021200Z5 --- NEAR 15.5S1 51.6E2
>> MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
>> POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
>> POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
>> PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
>> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
>> RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM
>> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
>> 015 NM ELSEWHERE
>> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
>> OVER WATER
>> 060 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
>> REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 51.6E2
>> ---
>> FORECASTS:
>> 12 HRS, VALID AT:
>> 030000Z3 --- 15.1S7 49.5E8
>> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
>> RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 010 NM OVER WATER
>> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
>> OVER WATER
>> 010 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
>> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 075 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
>> OVER WATER
>> 050 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
>> VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
>> ---
>> 24 HRS, VALID AT:
>> 031200Z6 --- 14.9S4 47.5E6
>> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
>> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM OVER WATER
>> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
>> OVER WATER
>> 045 NM ELSEWHERE OVER WATER
>> VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
>> ---
>> 36 HRS, VALID AT:
>> 040000Z4 --- 14.8S3 45.1E0
>> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
>> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
>> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
>> 040 NM ELSEWHERE
>> VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
>> ---
>> EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
>> 48 HRS, VALID AT:
>> 041200Z7 --- 14.9S4 42.7E3
>> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
>> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
>> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
>> 040 NM ELSEWHERE
>> ---
>>REMARKS:
>>021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 51.1E7.
>>TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (HUDAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM
>>EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTALAHA, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
>>KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
>>021130Z7 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
>>INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127
>>KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
>>SLIGHTLY WEAKENING SYSTEM AS TC 21S BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND.
>>IMAGERY NOW REVEALS A BANDING EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE
>>EYEWALL DECREASING IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE MID-LEVEL
>>RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM MOZAMBIQUE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
>>OVER MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE, TC 21S SHOULD
>>CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE 24 TO 36-HOUR POINT.
>>AFTERWARDS, TC 21S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A
>>SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
>>MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL AT THE 6-HOUR POINT,
>>APPROXIMATELY 25 NM SOUTH OF ANTALAHA, MADAGASCAR. AFTER MOVING INTO
>>THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, TC 21S SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT ABOUT 90
>>KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 30 FEET. NEXT
>>WARNINGS AT 030300Z6 (DTG 030151Z0) AND 031500Z9 (DTG 031351Z3).
>>REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (TESSI) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR
>>TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
>
>
>
>>430
>>WTIO30 FMEE 020600
>>RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
>>TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST BULLLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
>>4.A NUMBER OF BULLETIN : 17/12/19992000
>>1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE (HUDAH)
>>2.A POSITION AT 0600 UTC 02/04/2000 : 15.7S/52.9E (FIFTEEN
>> DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL NINE
>> DEGREES EAST).
>>3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 7.0/7.0 /D 0.5/12 H
>>4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 905 HPA
>>5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 120 KT
>>6.A ESTENSION OF WIND OF 30 KT AND OVER :
>> NE30: 280 KM SE30: 380 KM
>> SW30: 380 KM NW30: 280 KM
>>7.A 1ST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE/AVERAGE DIAM) : 1008 HPA / 800 KM
>>8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
>>1.B FORECAST 12H : 14.8S / 50.4E FI=7.0
>>
>>
>>2.B FORECAST 24H : 14.0S / 48.0E FI= OVERLAND
>>3.B FORECAST 48H : 13.7S / 44.0E FI=4.0
>>
>>
>>4.B OTHER INFORMATIONS : TRACK SHOULD MAINTAIN
>> WESTNORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON THE NORTHERN
>> EDGE OF A HIGH.=
>
>
>>793
>>WTIO20 FMEE 020600
>>
>>PAN PAN
>>HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
>>ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION
>>02/04/2000 AT 0600 UTC
>>WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
>>WARNING NUMBER : 034/12 (SOUTH-WEST IL NINE DEGREES EAST) AT 06
>>00 UTC
>>MOVEMENT : WESTNORTHWEST 14 KT
>>MENACED AREAS : SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 160 NM
>> RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 200 MN OF THE
>> CENTRE IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
>>HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/120 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
>> WITHIN 30 MN RADIUS OF THE CENTRE.
>>STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60
>> NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE.
>>GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 120
>> NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE.
>>NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN
>> 150 NM OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
>>SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
>>FORECASTED POSITION 02/04/2000 AT 1800 UTC: 14.8 SOUTH/50.4 EAST
>> STATIONARY INTENSITY.
>>FORECASTED POSITION 03/04/2000 AT 0600 UTC: 14.0 SOUTH/48.0 EAST
>>
>>
>>OTHER INFORMATIONS : THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED DURING LAST
>> NIGHT. IT SHOULD LAND ON MADAGASCAR IN THE FIRST PART OF THE
>> NEXT NIGHT, IN THE VICINITY OF ANTALAHA.=
>
>
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> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
004
X-Sender: jra at upnaway.com
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.6 (32)
Date: Sun, 02 Apr 2000 23:02:11 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
Subject: aus-wx: New Northam Tornado Pictures
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Everyone. As part of the new web site we are building I've re-scanned
the awesome Northam tornado pics. I also added some new ones that i didnt
scan before of the funnel and wall cloud. If you want to have a peek its up
as pic of the month at my page, click on it to see the rest of the pics.
http://www.upnaway.com/~jra/weather.html
Ira Fehlberg
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005
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 02:35:27 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Tessi (22P) map animation updated TCA#11
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
The TC Tessi map animation at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/Tessi2Anim.htm has been updated with BoM
TCA#11.
According to the BoM, Tessi is near the coast between Townsville and
Lucinda moving W at 15 km/hr.
It should cross the coast in a few hours.
Next update will be after some sleep!
BoM TCA#11 pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
>IDW50Q00
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
>warning.
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 11
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>For 2 am EST on Monday the 3rd of April 2000
>
>A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between
>Innisfail and Bowen.
>
>Tropical Cyclone TESSI, Category 1, is moving closer to the north Queensland
>coast.
>
>At 2 am EST, TESSI was located about 60 kilometres east-southeast of
>Lucinda and
>60 kilometres north of Townsville moving west at about 15 kilometres per hour.
>
>Gales are expected about the coast and islands between Innisfail and Bowen for
>at least the next 6 hours as the centre of the cyclone approaches the coast
>between Townsville and Lucinda.
>
>Tides are expected to be above normal and could exceed the high water mark.
>
>Heavy to flood rains are likely about the coast and nearby ranges between
>Innisfail and Mackay.
>
>Details of Tropical Cyclone TESSI, Category 1, for 2 am EST
>Central Pressure : 988 Hectopascals
>Location of Centre : within 40 kilometres of
> latitude 18.7 degrees south
> longitude 146.9 degrees east
> about 60 kilometres east-southeast of Lucinda
> and 60 kilometres north of Townsville
>Recent Movement : west at about 15 kilometres per hour
>Maximum wind gusts : 120 kilometres per hour
>
>People between Innisfail and Bowen should remain inside until the cyclone has
>passed and listen to the next advice at 5am EST.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
006
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 05:56:40 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Tessi (22P) Cat 2 map animation updated TCA#14
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
The TC Tessi map animation at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/Tessi2Anim.htm has been updated with BoM
TCA#14.
According to the BoM, Tessi is now Cat 2 with gusts to 130 km/hr and near
the coast near Lucinda moving W at 15 km/hr.
It should cross the coast in the next hour or so.
BoM TCA#14 pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
>IDW50Q00
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal SHOULD be used with this warning.
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>For 5 am EST on Monday the 3rd of April 2000
>
>A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between
>Cardwell
>and Ayr. The warning between Cardwell and Innisfail has been cancelled.
>
>Tropical Cyclone TESSI category 2, is now quite close to the coast between
>Lucinda and Townsville.
>
>At 5 am EST, TESSI was located about 35 kilometres southeast of Lucinda and 60
>kilometres north northwest of Townsville moving west at about 15
>kilometres per
>hour.
>
>Gales and destructive wind gusts to 130 km/h are being experienced about the
>coast and islands and adjacent inland areas between Cardwell and Ayr and
>should
>continue for about another 4 hours as the centre of the cyclone crosses the
>coast between Townsville and Lucinda. Winds should then gradually ease as the
>system moves further inland.
>
>Tides are expected to be above normal and could exceed the high water mark.
>
>Heavy to flood rains are likely about the coast and nearby ranges between
>Cardwell and Mackay.
>
>Details of Tropical Cyclone TESSI, Category 2, for 5 am EST
>Central Pressure : 988 Hectopascals
>Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
> latitude 18.8 degrees south
> longitude 146.5 degrees east
> about 35 kilometres southeast of Lucinda
> and 60 kilometres north northwest of Townsville
>Recent Movement : west at about 15 kilometres per hour
>Destructive wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour
>
>People between Cardwell and Ayr should remain inside until the cyclone has
>passed and listen to the next advice at 6 am EST.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
007
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 06:34:51 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Tessi (22P) Crossing coast map animation updated TCA#15
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
The TC Tessi map animation at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/Tessi2Anim.htm has been updated with BoM
TCA#15.
According to the BoM, Tessi Cat 2 is now crossing the coast 20 km S of
Lucinda and 70 km NW of Townsville.
BoM TCA#15 pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
>IDW50Q00
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal SHOULD be used with this warning.
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>For 6 am EST on Monday the 3rd of April 2000
>
>A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between
>Cardwell
>and Ayr.
>
>The centre of tropical Cyclone TESSI category 2, on the coast between Lucinda
>and Townsville.
>
>At 6 am EST, TESSI was located about 20 kilometres south of Lucinda and 70
>kilometres northwest of Townsville moving west at about 15 kilometres per
>hour.
>
>Gales and destructive wind gusts to 130 km/h are being experienced about the
>coast and islands and adjacent inland areas between Cardwell and Ayr and
>should
>continue for about another 2 hours as the centre of the cyclone crosses the
>coast. Winds should then gradually ease as the system moves further inland.
>
>Tides are expected to be above normal and could exceed the high water mark.
>
>Heavy to flood rains are likely about the coast and nearby ranges between
>Cardwell and Mackay.
>
>Details of Tropical Cyclone TESSI, Category 2, for 6 am EST
>Central Pressure : 988 Hectopascals
>Location of Centre : within 30 kilometres of
> latitude 18.8 degrees south
> longitude 146.3 degrees east
> about 20 kilometres south of Lucinda
> and 70 kilometres northwest of Townsville
>Recent Movement : west at about 15 kilometres per hour
>Destructive wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour
>
>People between Cardwell and Ayr should remain inside until the cyclone has
>passed and listen to the next advice at 7 am EST.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
008
Date: Mon, 03 Apr 2000 06:57:26 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Third TC in the Coral?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
Well - the low that was near New Caledonia is looking a lot nicer now,
and has moved NNW into even warmer waters. With TC Tessi further away,
it might give it a chance to organise a good LLC, and upper level
outflow.
JTWC has also issued a TC Formation Alert on it:
WTPS21 PGTW 021930
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.8S4 161.4E2 TO 13.0S4
153.4E3 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 021730Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 15.3S9 160.3E0. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
THE CONVECTION NEAR A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS SMALL (90
NM) IN AREAL EXTENT. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT VALID UNTIL 031930Z6.//
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
009
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 07:04:14 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: 21S/HUDAH Update
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
TC Hudah was crossing the coast of NE Madagascar about 1800 UTC (4 am AEST).
Here are some email updates and MFR RENUNION warnings.
Regards,
Carl.
> Dear all, powerful 21S/HUDAH just about to make landfall . Last EIR
at 1630utc depicting a more regular eye than last 06h . Fix: 15.3 s and
50.9 e just east of Ambohitralanana , south of Antsirabato. Met tv here
has just announced that gust already reaching 200K/H have been recorded ,
is it presumed or based on real observations ? Antsirabato is equiped with
a small airport , hence should have the possibilty to record values.
CNN , BBC and Met tv constantly refering to the TC's progress. Patrick
> Dear all, the eye making landfall at 18utc . Organisation hightlighted
>by SSMI pass right at 18utc. Now conviced that T6.5 is too low.System
>appears to have regained strength( or lost it at all) . look at the
>convection surrounding the eye> very impressive. Based on news from the
>Malagasy governement , conditions are said to be atrocious near ANTALAHA
>. The east coast of Madagascar really is along the West coast of
>Australia an unrivalled spot for SH . Hope one day to live there and
>video things . I was not so wrong ( but did not take too many risks) in
>predicting that this season might turn out more difficult for Madagascar
>after 1998 and 1999 which were very clement . This 2000 season could
>not turn out to be banal and in fact is just behind 1994 for Madagascar
>when 4 TCs of Hurricane/Typhoon int , DAISY , GERALDA, LITANNE, NADIA
>brought devastation over eastern coast. GERALDA ( 13S) totally destroyed
>the port of TOAMASINA. Patrick
> Dear all, quite impressive !! 21S/HUDAH making landfall right over
>ANTSIRABATO the airport location for ANTALAHA. Once again SSMI and TRMM
>are very helpful . Patrick
>128
>WTIO30 FMEE 021800
>RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
>TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST BULLLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
>4.A NUMBER OF BULLETIN : 18/12/19992000
>1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE (HUDAH)
>2.A POSITION AT 1800 UTC 02/04/2000 : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF
> POINT 15.0S/50.4E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
> FIFTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST).
>3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/7.0 MOINS /W 1.0/12 H
>4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 905 HPA
>5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 120 KT
>6.A ESTENSION OF WIND OF 30 KT AND OVER :
> NE30: 280 KM SE30: 380 KM
> SW30: 300 KM NW30: 150 KM
>7.A 1ST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE/AVERAGE DIAM) : 1008 HPA / 1000
> KM
>8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
>1.B FORECAST 12H : 14.5S / 48.4E FI=
>2.B FORECAST 24H : 14.5S / 46.2E FI=3.5
>
>
>3.B FORECAST 48H : 15.0S / 40.6E FI=3.5
>
>
>4.B OTHER INFORMATIONS : THE CYCLONE SHOULD CROSS
> MADAGASCAR ISLAND WITH A WESTWARD TRACK AND SHOULD GO OUT
> OVERSEAS, IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, ON APRIL 03, BETWEEN 12
> AND 14 UTC.=
>615
>WTIO20 FMEE 021800
>
>PAN PAN
>HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
>ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION
>02/04/2000 AT 1800 UTC
>WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
>WARNING NUMBER : 036/12 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
>BEGINNING OF VALID : SUNDAY 02/04/2000 AT 1800 UTC
>PHENOMENON : VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (HUDAH )
>
>
> 905 HPA
>POSITION : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0S/50.4E
> (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL FOUR
> DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
>MOVEMENT : WEST 13 KT
>MENACED AREAS : SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 150 NM
> RADIUS OF THE CENTRE, EXTENDING LOCALLY UP TO 220 NM FROM THE
> CENTRE.
>HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/120 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
> WITHIN 30 MN RADIUS OF THE CENTRE.
>STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 60
> NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE.
>GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 110
> NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE
> SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
>NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN
> 150 NM RADIUS EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
>SOUTH.
>FORECASTED POSITION 03/04/2000 AT 0600 UTC: 14.5 SOUTH/48.4 EAST
>
>
>FORECASTED POSITION 03/04/2000 AT 1800 UTC: 14.5 SOUTH/46.2 EAST
> WEAKENING.
>OTHER INFORMATIONS : THE CYCLONE HUDAH IS LANDING ACTUALLY (AT
> 18 UTC) ON MADAGASCAR ISLAND, ON ANTALAHA.=
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
010
Date: Mon, 03 Apr 2000 07:03:53 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.72 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Tessi Underrated? 130km/h gusts in Townsville
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
Jeff Callaghan was on the radio this morning saying that there were
gusts to 130km/h at Townsville. Given that Townsville was a reasonable
distance from the eyewall (although on the southern side of the TC), it
certainly would be possible that higher gusts were received near the
eye. This would certainly make sense, as IMO it was a Cat 2 from a lot
earlier then when the BoM had it - I think they must have changed it to
Cat 2 when the higher gusts came in?
Any thoughts/opinions?
I'm off to battle traffic...
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
011
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 07:42:26 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Tessi (22P) Cat 1 map animation updated TCA#16
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi All.
The TC Tessi map animation at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/Tessi2Anim.htm has been updated with BoM
TCA#16.
According to the BoM, Tessi Cat 1 is stationary on the coast 20 km S of
Lucinda and 70 km NW of Townsville and has weakened to Cat 1, 110 km/hr,
990 hPa.
BoM TCA#16 pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
>IDW50Q00
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
>warning.
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 16
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>For 7 am EST on Monday the 3rd of April 2000
>
>A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between
>Cardwell
>and Ayr and west to the ranges between Ingham and Townsville.
>
>The centre of tropical Cyclone TESSI, Category 1, is on the coast between
>Lucinda and Townsville, and has weakened a little in the past hour.
>
>At 7 am EST, TESSI was located about 20 kilometres south of Lucinda and 70
>kilometres northwest of Townsville and almost stationary. The cyclone is soon
>expected to soon resume a westerly movement across the coast.
>
>Gales are being experienced about the coast and islands and adjacent inland
>between Cardwell and Ayr and should continue for about another few hours
>as the
>centre of the cyclone moves inland. Winds should then gradually ease.
>
>Tides are expected to be above normal and could just exceed high water mark.
>
>Heavy to flood rains are likely about the coast and nearby ranges between
>Cardwell and Mackay. A Preliminary Flood Warning is current.
>
>Details of Tropical Cyclone TESSI, Category 1, for 7 am EST
>Central Pressure : 990 Hectopascals
>Location of Centre : within 20 kilometres of
> latitude 18.8 degrees south
> longitude 146.3 degrees east
> about 20 kilometres south of Lucinda
> and 70 kilometres northwest of Townsville
>Recent Movement : almost stationary
>Maximum wind gusts : 110 kilometres per hour near the centre
>
>People between Cardwell and Ayr should remain inside until the cyclone has
>passed and listen to the next advice at 8 am EST.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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012
From: "DAMIEN HOWES" [dhowes at powerup.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: BSCH Picture Update wall clouds
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 08:27:26 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1
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G'day Ira/everyone,
The wall cloud in this photo ( which was taken looking from the NW)
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/pictures/damien/05-01-2000a-htm was under the
main updraft. I also suspect it was on the NE of a RFD, but am not
sure.....?.The ''parent Cb'' is seen in this photo taken 20 mins later. Hope
this helps. Damien
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/pictures/damien/05-01-2000e-htm
-----Original Message-----
From: Ira Fehlberg [jra at upnaway.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Thursday, 30 March 2000 7:54
Subject: aus-wx: BSCH Picture Update wall clouds
>
>The best way of identifying wall clouds is to look at where abouts the
>feature is in regards to the rest of the storm. The wall cloud is always
>under the main updraught but in front of the RFD. Obvioulsy Damien would be
>able to tell us this.
>
>eg's
>http://members.xoom.com/wastorms/170498-16.html
>http://www.braenet.com.au/~disarm/thunderstruck/pictures/jan30-5.htm
>http://www.braenet.com.au/~disarm/thunderstruck/pictures/nov3.htm
>in all these pis you can see the RFD in the background. A HP supercell
>model is at
>www.inflowimages.com/hpsc.jpg
>
> Ira Fehlberg
>
>At 07:47 30/03/00 +1000, you wrote:
>>
>>1st one id say 100% wall cloud.
>>
>>2nd one hmm was it rotating ? If it was i would say yes, maybe.
>>
>>Matt
>>
>>>
>>>
>>>> http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/pictures/damien/05-01-2000a.htm
>>>
>>>I believe this is certainly a Wall Cloud, and a rather nice one (IMO).
>>>
>>>Also, is what I believe to be a possible mesocyclone - this is captured
>>>from video footage, the URL is:
>>>http://bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/capture/Jan5/KS040.JPG
>>>
>>>Although some people certainly have differing opinions on this
>>>particular capture!
>>>--
>>>Anthony Cornelius
>>>Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
>>>(ASWA)
>>>(07) 3390 4812
>>>14 Kinsella St
>>>Belmont, Brisbane
>>>QLD, 4153
>>>Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
>>>reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
>>>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>>> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>>> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
>>> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
>>> message.
>>> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>>>
>>>
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>> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>>
>>
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013
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 08:36:54 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Tessi (22P) Cat 1 map animation updated TCA#17
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
The TC Tessi map animation at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/Tessi2Anim.htm has been updated with BoM
TCA#17.
According to the BoM, Tessi Cat 1 is stationary on the coast 20 km S of
Lucinda and 70 km NW of Townsville and has weakened further to 90 km/hr,
995 hPa.
BoM TCA#17 pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
>IDW50Q00
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
>warning.
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>For 8 am EST on Monday the 3rd of April 2000
>
>A CYCLONE WARNING is current for coastal and island communities between
>Lucinda
>and Townsville and west to the ranges.
>
>The centre of tropical Cyclone TESSI, Category 1, is on the coast between
>Lucinda and Townsville, and has weakened further in the past hour.
>
>At 8 am EST, TESSI was located about 20 kilometres south of Lucinda and 70
>kilometres northwest of Townsville and almost stationary.
>The cyclone is soon expected to resume a westerly movement across the coast.
>
>Gales are being experienced about the coast and islands and adjacent inland
>close to the cyclone centre.
>Winds are expected to ease below gale force in the next hour or two.
>
>Tides will be slightly higher than normal for another few hours.
>
>Heavy to flood rains are likely about the coast and nearby ranges between
>Cardwell and Mackay. A Preliminary Flood Warning is current.
>
>Details of Tropical Cyclone TESSI, Category 1, for 8 am EST
>Central Pressure : 995 Hectopascals
>Location of Centre : within 20 kilometres of
> latitude 18.8 degrees south
> longitude 146.3 degrees east
> about 20 kilometres south of Lucinda
> and 70 kilometres northwest of Townsville
>Recent Movement : almost stationary
>Maximum wind gusts : 90 kilometres per hour near the centre
>
>People close to the cyclone centre should take precautions and listen to the
>next advice at 9 am EST.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
014
From: "DAMIEN HOWES" [dhowes at powerup.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: BSCH Picture Update wall clouds
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 08:46:08 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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G'day again Ira/Everyone, I stuffed up the URL's in my last attempt I
think..I'm still a wee babe in the woods with all this computer/typing carry
on ...sorry... the correct ones are.
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/pictures/damien/05-01-2000a.htm
http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/pictures/damien/05-01-2000e.htm thanks
Damien. -----Original Message-----
From: DAMIEN HOWES [dhowes at powerup.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Date: Monday, 3 April 2000 8:38
Subject: Re: aus-wx: BSCH Picture Update wall clouds
>G'day Ira/everyone,
>The wall cloud in this photo ( which was taken looking from the NW)
>http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/pictures/damien/05-01-2000a-htm was under the
>main updraft. I also suspect it was on the NE of a RFD, but am not
>sure.....?.The ''parent Cb'' is seen in this photo taken 20 mins later.
Hope
>this helps. Damien
>http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/pictures/damien/05-01-2000e-htm
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Ira Fehlberg
>To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>Date: Thursday, 30 March 2000 7:54
>Subject: aus-wx: BSCH Picture Update wall clouds
>
>
>>
>>The best way of identifying wall clouds is to look at where abouts the
>>feature is in regards to the rest of the storm. The wall cloud is always
>>under the main updraught but in front of the RFD. Obvioulsy Damien would
be
>>able to tell us this.
>>
>>eg's
>>http://members.xoom.com/wastorms/170498-16.html
>>http://www.braenet.com.au/~disarm/thunderstruck/pictures/jan30-5.htm
>>http://www.braenet.com.au/~disarm/thunderstruck/pictures/nov3.htm
>>in all these pis you can see the RFD in the background. A HP supercell
>>model is at
>>www.inflowimages.com/hpsc.jpg
>>
>> Ira Fehlberg
>>
>>At 07:47 30/03/00 +1000, you wrote:
>>>
>>>1st one id say 100% wall cloud.
>>>
>>>2nd one hmm was it rotating ? If it was i would say yes, maybe.
>>>
>>>Matt
>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> http://www.bsch.simplenet.com/pictures/damien/05-01-2000a.htm
>>>>
>>>>I believe this is certainly a Wall Cloud, and a rather nice one (IMO).
>>>>
>>>>Also, is what I believe to be a possible mesocyclone - this is captured
>>>>from video footage, the URL is:
>>>>http://bsch.simplenet.com/anthony/capture/Jan5/KS040.JPG
>>>>
>>>>Although some people certainly have differing opinions on this
>>>>particular capture!
>>>>--
>>>>Anthony Cornelius
>>>>Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
>>>>(ASWA)
>>>>(07) 3390 4812
>>>>14 Kinsella St
>>>>Belmont, Brisbane
>>>>QLD, 4153
>>>>Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
>>>>reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
>>>>http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>>>> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
>>>> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
>to:majordomo at world.std.com
>>>> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
>>>> message.
>>>> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>>>>
>>>>
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>>> message.
>>> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>>>
>>>
>>
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015
X-Sender: disarm at braenet.com.au (Unverified)
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Pro Version 3.0 (32)
Date: Mon, 03 Apr 2000 09:03:09 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith [disarm at braenet.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: !!! Storm Chase !!!
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Morning Everyone !
Well today should see storms. I will be heading to Bathurst/Lithgow based
on the model data ive seen. Although the hunter is really drawing me there
based on its "reputation" it has (ie big storms) i will still head to where
it looks best.
We have an ok jet today (65 knots), and things arent looking to bad at all.
Hail is also a reasonable possibility today.
0407 069 693
Any updates would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks !
Matt Smith
Daniel/James - If you here any confirmation about you know what, give us a
ring and let me know what is happening. Thanks.
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016
From: "Dr David Jones" [d.jones at bom.gov.au]
To: "Aussie Weather Digest \(E-mail\)" [aussie-weather-digest at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: SSTs
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 09:58:06 +1000
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>(Lindsay Pearce)
>Just been looking at the SST Anomalies for March.
>
>Does anyone have any thoughts on where that mass of warm water on the
>east coast of South Africa might go?
>
>It's roughly at 40 degrees south just now and looks to be breaking up a
>little. If it heads south east, the lower than average SST'S down there
>might, thankfully, diminish its impact on our Winter lows. Then again,
>if it heads more to the east towards WA, it might lessen our chances of
>decent cold cored lows developing this winter. Is that right?
Lindsay, I suspect to a substantial degree, the current SST (sea surface
temperature) anomalies across the Southern Hemisphere mid/high latitudes
reflect the fact that the subtropical ridge (read belt of mid
latitude/subtropical high pressure) has in recent months been tending to lie
south of its normal position (for example in our region near Tasmania), with
the circumpolar trough (read belt of lows near the Antarctic Coast) being
strong than normal, and also lying south of normal. As a result, the region
near 35 to 45 south has been experiencing lighter winds and more stable
conditions - less cloud, rainfall, more sunshine, while further south, the
increase pressure gradient has resulted in stronger winds, and (probably)
increased cloudiness. Anyway, in the 35 to 45S range, one would expect the
SSTs to be warmer than normal because less wind implies less mixing of warm
surface water down, more sunshine implies more sun to heat water etc
(obvious really). Further south the increased wind would mean increased
mixing of warm water down, cool water up, meaning that SSTs would tend to be
cooler than normal. In a nutshell this seems to explain why most of the SSTs
near (say) 35S are anomalously warm, while those near 55S are anomalously
cool. The reason why SSTs are so very warm near Africa, appears in part to a
particularly strong anticyclone anomaly which has been occurring to the
southeast of Africa for some months - this may well be tied to the flooding
in east Africa - the observant will have noticed that when we have a very
active monsoon over Australia we tend to have strong highs in the Tasman
Sea, and a similar pattern would be expected near Africa (with stronger than
normal highs to the southeast).
Anyway, that seems to explain why it is so warm near 35S pretty much
everywhere in the Southern Hemisphere. As for where the very warm water near
Africa will go, I guess the best guess is towards the east (ie move towards
Australia). This is based on the fact that it seems to have been doing this
for sometime - see http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/mrlr/nrs/pastanal.htm , and
the general drift of currents in this region is west to east. As for how far
east it will get, and in what form, I guess it is anybodies guess, though I
would be suprised if it makes it to Australia.
Regards,
David.
Climate Analysis Section
National Climate Centre
Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
017
From: "Dr David Jones" [d.jones at bom.gov.au]
To: "Aussie Weather \(E-mail\)" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: amazing rainfall patterns..
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 10:45:05 +1000
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For those southerners like myself wondering how unusual Melbourne's
(Australia's) weather has been over the past 3 years take a lookie at,
http://www/climate/rainmaps/mntha36a.shtml
and
http://www/climate/rainmaps/mnthd36a.shtml
The contrast between record high rainfall in WA and record low rainfall in
southern Vic is quite amazing. As they say.. "a month without records is a
record month" but none-the-less maps like this do get one thinking about
climate variability.
Of course, the situation in Victoria has also been exacerbated by the warmth
of the past four summers.
Cheers,
DAJ
Dr David Jones
Climate Analysis Section
National Climate Centre
Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
018
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: amazing rainfall patterns..
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 11:05:43 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook CWS, Build 9.0.2416 (9.0.2910.0)
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I guess these URLS need .bom.gov.au inserted after www
John.
>snip
-----Original Message-----
From: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
[mailto:aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com]On Behalf Of Dr David
Jones
Sent: Monday, 3 April 2000 10:45
To: Aussie Weather (E-mail)
Subject: aus-wx: amazing rainfall patterns..
For those southerners like myself wondering how unusual Melbourne's
(Australia's) weather has been over the past 3 years take a lookie at,
http://www/climate/rainmaps/mntha36a.shtml
and
http://www/climate/rainmaps/mnthd36a.shtml
The contrast between record high rainfall in WA and record low rainfall in
southern Vic is quite amazing. As they say.. "a month without records is a
record month" but none-the-less maps like this do get one thinking about
climate variability.
Of course, the situation in Victoria has also been exacerbated by the warmth
of the past four summers.
Cheers,
DAJ
Dr David Jones
Climate Analysis Section
National Climate Centre
Bureau of Meteorology Fax : (+61 3) 9669 4678
GPO Box 1289K, Melbourne Ph (work): (+61 3) 9669 4861
Victoria 3001, Australia Ph (home): (+61 3) 9898 4425
email : D.Jones at bom.gov.au
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019
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 11:23:17 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Ex-Tessi - final map animation.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All.
The TC Tessi map animation at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/Tessi2Anim.htm has been updated with the
final BoM
TCA#18.
According to the BoM, ex-Tessi is now inland NW of Paluma.
Latest BoM info pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
>IDW50Q00
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
>warning.
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>Severe Weather Warning
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>For 11 am EST on Monday the 3rd of April 2000
>
>Updated warning
>Ex-Tropical Cyclone TESSI remains an intense low just to the northwest of
>Paluma. The system is continuing to weaken slowly and drift westwards.
>
>Strong wind squalls to 100 kilometres per hour and local flash flooding can be
>expected over the next few hours in coastal and inland areas between about
>Lucinda and Rollinstone, particularly in the vicinity of the low.
>
>Heavy to flood rains are also likely about the coast and nearby ranges between
>Ingham and Mackay for the remainder of today. A Preliminary Flood Warning has
>been issued for coastal streams in this region.
>
>Another Severe Weather Warning with the latest information on ex-Tropical
>Cyclone TESSI will be issued at 2 pm EST.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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020
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: (fwd) Televison program on Australian weather
Date: Mon, 03 Apr 2000 01:56:26 GMT
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Can anyone help with this request I've received? I do remember a
(short?) series, but can't for the life of me remember its name or who
broadcast it.
Laurier
On Sat, 01 Apr 2000 21:20:14 +1000, pcochra at attglobal.net wrote:
>Dear Laurier,
>
>Do you know if a television program or series has been broadcast on
>Australian weather?
>
>If so, can you tell me the name of it.
>
>Yours sincerely, PETER COCHRANE.
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021
From: "John Woodbridge" [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Ex-Tessi - final map animation.
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 11:54:38 +1000
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Funny how the latest animated radar clearly shows a circulation centre just
off the coast...
Regards,
John.
>snip
...
According to the BoM, ex-Tessi is now inland NW of Paluma.
Latest BoM info pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
>IDW50Q00
>BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
>Queensland Region
>Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
>
>Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
>warning.
>
>
>TOP PRIORITY
>Severe Weather Warning
>Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
>For 11 am EST on Monday the 3rd of April 2000
>
>Updated warning
>Ex-Tropical Cyclone TESSI remains an intense low just to the northwest of
>Paluma. The system is continuing to weaken slowly and drift westwards.
>
>Strong wind squalls to 100 kilometres per hour and local flash flooding can
be
>expected over the next few hours in coastal and inland areas between about
>Lucinda and Rollinstone, particularly in the vicinity of the low.
>
>Heavy to flood rains are also likely about the coast and nearby ranges
between
>Ingham and Mackay for the remainder of today. A Preliminary Flood Warning
has
>been issued for coastal streams in this region.
>
>Another Severe Weather Warning with the latest information on ex-Tropical
>Cyclone TESSI will be issued at 2 pm EST.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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022
X-Sender: jacob at mail.iinet.net.au
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Date: Mon, 03 Apr 2000 11:46:04 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Aussie Weather Guidelines
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Just a reminder to the people that have been on this list for a while, and
for others that have recently joined, about our Aussie-Weather guidelines.
The guidelines are at:
http://members.iinet.net.au/~jacob/auswx.html
I have had several complaints by some that a few on the list continue to
break Guideline number 4 and 9.
So please try not to over post to the a list every day, a few a day is
fine, but it starts to clutter email boxes when you start to make several
on the same day, and please try to set your email clients to normal next.
Thanks.
Jacob (co-list ownder)
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023
X-Sender: carls at ford.ace-net.com.au
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 16:47:34 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Carl Smith [carls at ace-net.com.au]
Subject: aus-wx: TC 23P - Coral Sea
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi All.
JTWC has upgraded the system in the NE Coral Sea to a cyclone. Wonder how
long before BoM does the same?
Links to all warnings etc are on my website at
http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm.
JTWC 23P#1 pasted below.
Regards,
Carl.
>241
>WTPS32 PGTW 030300
>IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY
>1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P WARNING NR 001
> 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
> ---
> WARNING POSITION:
> 030000Z3 --- NEAR 14.4S9 159.5E0
> MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
> POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
> POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
> PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
> REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 159.5E0
> ---
> FORECASTS:
> 12 HRS, VALID AT:
> 031200Z6 --- 13.0S4 157.7E0
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 040 NM SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
> 030 NM ELSEWHERE
> VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
> ---
> 24 HRS, VALID AT:
> 040000Z4 --- 12.8S1 155.7E8
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 030 NM ELSEWHERE
> VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
> ---
> 36 HRS, VALID AT:
> 041200Z7 --- 12.9S2 153.5E4
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 010 NM ELSEWHERE
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 035 NM ELSEWHERE
> VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
> ---
> EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
> 48 HRS, VALID AT:
> 050000Z5 --- 13.3S7 151.2E9
> MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
> RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 015 NM ELSEWHERE
> RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE
> 040 NM ELSEWHERE
> ---
>REMARKS:
>030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 159.0E5.
>THE SUSPECT AREA WHICH WAS UNDER A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
>(WTPS21 PGTW 021930), WEST OF VANUATU, HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL
>CYCLONE 23P. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P, SITUATED ABOUT 820 NM EAST OF THE
>QUEENSLAND COAST, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE
>PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 022330Z0 VISIBLE
>SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
>CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
>IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL (90 NM IN AREAL COVERAGE) SYMMETRIC SYSTEM
>WITH ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES MOVING IN TOWARD THE CENTER
>FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL
>RIDGE INDICATIVE OF IMPROVED OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO
>TRACK INITIALLY, NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM
>TRACKS EQUATORWARD OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
>SOUTHEAST QUEENSLAND TO NEW ZEALAND. TC 23P SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A
>CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL
>RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z3 IS 12 FEET.
>THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS NAVPACMETOCCEN 021921Z APR 00
>TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 021930) NEXT WARNINGS
>AT 031500Z9 (DTG 031353Z5) AND 040300Z7 (DTG 040153Z3). REFER TO
>TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (HUDAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
>HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (TESSI), (WTPS31
>PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING.//
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Carl Smith.
Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
Email: carls at ace-net.com.au
Internet: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/index.htm
Current Cyclone information: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/current.htm
Cyclone Tracking Maps: http://www.ace-net.com.au/~carls/TCMaps.htm
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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024
From: davidkc at advanceenergy.com.au
Subject: aus-wx: Re: aus-wx Storms Grenfell, Caragabal.
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 17:14:33 +1000
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Hi there..
Several reports of blackouts in Grenfell, Severe Storm as passed through
these areas, very heavy rain.
Dave
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025
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Storms now visible west of the Illawarra
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 18:00:44 +1000
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Since 5pm some anvils have become visible west of the escarpment, perhaps
150-200km distant. I think they will expire before making the Illawarra.
There is one slight sign of encouragement and that is fresh congestus is
forming from a lower bank of junky cloud under the shade of anvil, that
means that the convection may sustain after dark.
Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com
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026
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: aus-wx: Very heavy rain at Townsville, continuing
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 18:12:18 +1000 (EST)
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Townsville is getting some very heavy rain out of Cyclone Tessi.
On top of the 202mm they got in the 24 hours to 9 this morning, the
latest metars show that they have received 164mm in the 9 hours 9-6,
with heavy rain continuing (9.2mm in the last 10 minutes, or about
55mm/hour), giving a storm total of 366mm with no sign of a let-up.
Blair Trewin
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027
From: "Les Crossan" [les.crossan at virgin.net]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: (fwd) Televison program on Australian weather
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 08:37:33 +0100
Organization: Cosmic EuroCon - note all times are always GMT
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----- Original Message -----
From: Laurier Williams [wbc at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Monday, April 03, 2000 2:56 AM
Subject: aus-wx: (fwd) Televison program on Australian weather
Here in the UK there was a series called "Southern Exposure" which was all
about Australian severe weather.
Theres another one on tonight here at 55N - "Savage Planet" about
lightning - if the prieview is anything to go by it (MASSIVE IC / CC, like
horizon to horizon, with the Sydney Harbour Bridge in the foreground)
should be fairly action - packed. I'm going to Mpeg this one and get it off
to my state rep.
Les
------------------------------------------------------
Les Crossan
Wallsend, Tyne & Wear, UK 54-59N 01-30W
UK Storm Chaser / Severe Weather Enthusiast
http://freespace.virgin.net/les.crossan/index.htm
Melbourne Storm Chasers (MSC) - Victoria, AUS
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/
Australian Severe Weather Association (ASWA) - AUS
http://www.severeweather.asn.au/
Tornado and Storm Research Organisation (TORRO) - UK
Thunderstorm Census Organisation (TCO) - UK
http://www.torro.org.uk/
Email: les.NOSPAMcrossan at virgin.net (remove NOSPAM)
ICQ: 17296776
------------------------------------------------------
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028
From: "dann weatherhead" [weatherhead at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Storms now visible west of the Illawarra
Date: Mon, 3 Apr 2000 18:57:47 +1000
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At cranebrook here lightning visible to my SW. Some very nice flashes
lighting up what looks like a crisp back end, and some developing towers
And the lightning is a yellow colour. Might be a enjoyable evening.
dann
----- Original Message -----
From: Michael Thompson [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Sent: Monday, April 03, 2000 6:00 PM
Subject: aus-wx: Storms now visible west of the Illawarra
> Since 5pm some anvils have become visible west of the escarpment, perhaps
> 150-200km distant. I think they will expire before making the Illawarra.
>
> There is one slight sign of encouragement and that is fresh congestus is
> forming from a lower bank of junky cloud under the shade of anvil, that
> means that the convection may sustain after dark.
>
>
> Michael Thompson
> http://thunder.simplenet.com
>
>
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> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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| Document: 000403.htm
Updated: 03 June 2000 |
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