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Storm News
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Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Friday, 29 October 1999 |
From Subject
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001 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] [Fwd: [ready] New java-based ARLplot program in READY]
002 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Ball Lightning Reported
003 Chris Maunder [cmaunder at mail.com] Ball Lightning Reported
004 "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au] Ball Lightning Reported
005 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Nasty TC in Bay of Bengal
006 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Nasty TC in Bay of Bengal
007 Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au] Nasty TC in Bay of Bengal
008 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Nasty TC in Bay of Bengal
009 "James Harris" [jimbohar at hotmail.com] Last weekends Chase.......
010 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Nasty TC in Bay of Bengal
011 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. NPMOC status...
012 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Nasty TC in Bay of Bengal
013 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Nasty TC in Bay of Bengal
014 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) shear and SRH
015 Jonty Hall [jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au] NPMOC status...
016 "Chris Gribben" [chrisgribben at hotmail.com] In Darwin
017 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au In Darwin
018 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] NPMOC status...
019 Chris Maunder [cmaunder at mail.com] In Darwin
020 wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams) NPMOC status...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 08:02:07 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: [Fwd: [ready] New java-based ARLplot program in READY]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
I thought that I'd forward this email to the list as some people might
be interested in it. It's a new plotting programme, so that you can
choose an area (ie rectangle, rather than a square, and you don't have
to worry about lat/longs). Only one catch - the only way to get
Australia the right side up in your final plot is to just click on the
map, but you only get a square image again, and you have to fiddle with
how many degrees radius you want. I've emailed and requested that they
can devise a way to fix this, and have Australia the right side up.
AVN SH is:
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/arlplotsrc.pl?metdata=AVNSH_191_km&hemis=Southern
MRF SH is:
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/arlplotsrc.pl?metdata=MRF_191_km&hemis=Southern
The email is below:
-------- Original Message --------
>Subject: [ready] New java-based ARLplot program in READY
>Date: Thu, 28 Oct 1999 14:4:27
>From: "Glenn Rolph"
>Reply-To: "Real-time Environmental Applications and Display sYstem"
>
>To: "Real-time Environmental Applications and Display sYstem"
>
READY Listserver Message
------------------------
We have added another method to choice a map domain when plotting
meteorological fields with the Interactive Forecast Mapping program
(ARLPLOT) in READY. You can now use a rubber-banding technique to
highlight the rectangle of interest. This will only work on the
newer browsers that support java-based programs (the original method
is still available for those that don't have a recent browser). As
this is new and experimental, please submit problems to the READY
webmaster. Enjoy!
Glenn Rolph
NOAA ARL
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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002
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 08:06:24 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
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To: Australian Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Ball Lightning Reported
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
On Wednesday, the radio apparently interviewed some one who witnessed
the phenomenal severe electrical t'storm that hit Texas, and several
other towns at around 2:30am Wednesday morning. This person said
"...there were balls of lightning rolling across the ground! I have
never seen this before in my life..."
Tracker was reporting phenomenal amounts of lightning, in excess of
100CG's per minute. As Ben mentioned earlier, there were also reports
of people losing their roofs.
Anyone care to comment?
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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003
X-Sender: cmaunder at mail.dynamite.com.au
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Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 09:31:27 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Chris Maunder [cmaunder at mail.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Ball Lightning Reported
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
At 08:06 AM 10/29/99 +1000, you wrote:
>Hi all,
>
>On Wednesday, the radio apparently interviewed some one who witnessed
>the phenomenal severe electrical t'storm that hit Texas, and several
>other towns at around 2:30am Wednesday morning. This person said
>"...there were balls of lightning rolling across the ground! I have
>never seen this before in my life..."
>
>Tracker was reporting phenomenal amounts of lightning, in excess of
>100CG's per minute. As Ben mentioned earlier, there were also reports
>of people losing their roofs.
>
>Anyone care to comment?
How about "That's so cool!" or "pix??" :)
------------------------------------
Chris Maunder Canberra, Australia
Dundas Software www.dundas.com
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004
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express Macintosh Edition - 4.5 (0410)
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 10:06:53 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Ball Lightning Reported
From: "Mark Hardy" [mhardy at magna.com.au]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
My only comment is, WOW!
----------
>From: Anthony Cornelius
>To: Australian Weather Mailing List
>Subject: aus-wx: Ball Lightning Reported
>Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 8:06 AM
>
> Hi all,
>
> On Wednesday, the radio apparently interviewed some one who witnessed
> the phenomenal severe electrical t'storm that hit Texas, and several
> other towns at around 2:30am Wednesday morning. This person said
> "...there were balls of lightning rolling across the ground! I have
> never seen this before in my life..."
>
> Tracker was reporting phenomenal amounts of lightning, in excess of
> 100CG's per minute. As Ben mentioned earlier, there were also reports
> of people losing their roofs.
>
> Anyone care to comment?
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005
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: aus-wx: Nasty TC in Bay of Bengal
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 11:04:55 +1000 (EST)
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A potentially very nasty tropical cyclone is currently churning away
in the Bay of Bengal. It has sustained winds of 135 knots at present,
making it a Category 4 storm. It is forecast to intensify further.
Given that most Bay of Bengal storms don't get beyond Category 3,
this is a fairly serious matter.
The forecast landfall point is in just about the worst imaginable
place - near the border of India and Bangladesh, putting the
Bangladesh coast in the firing line from any storm surge.
Given the past history with cyclones in this area, the death toll has
a fair chance of being catastrophic. Anyone want to guess what body
count will be required for the story to make it onto page 1 of an
Australian paper? (There have been six-figure tolls from cyclones on
two occasions in the last 30 years in this region).
Blair Trewin
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006
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 11:37:40 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nasty TC in Bay of Bengal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Probably over 1,000,000 before they will touch it.
NOt a bad TC considering that they are at the end of the season - wonder if
thats a prelude for our TC season?
Blair Trewin on 29/10/99 11:04:55 AM
Please respond to aussie-weather at world.std.com
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
cc: (bcc: Paul Mossman/LCO/NSW_AG)
Subject: aus-wx: Nasty TC in Bay of Bengal
A potentially very nasty tropical cyclone is currently churning away
in the Bay of Bengal. It has sustained winds of 135 knots at present,
making it a Category 4 storm. It is forecast to intensify further.
Given that most Bay of Bengal storms don't get beyond Category 3,
this is a fairly serious matter.
The forecast landfall point is in just about the worst imaginable
place - near the border of India and Bangladesh, putting the
Bangladesh coast in the firing line from any storm surge.
Given the past history with cyclones in this area, the death toll has
a fair chance of being catastrophic. Anyone want to guess what body
count will be required for the story to make it onto page 1 of an
Australian paper? (There have been six-figure tolls from cyclones on
two occasions in the last 30 years in this region).
Blair Trewin
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
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007
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 12:34:08 +1000
From: Anthony Cornelius [cyclone at flatrate.net.au]
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nasty TC in Bay of Bengal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Hi Blair and all,
> A potentially very nasty tropical cyclone is currently churning away
> in the Bay of Bengal. It has sustained winds of 135 knots at present,
> making it a Category 4 storm. It is forecast to intensify further.
> Given that most Bay of Bengal storms don't get beyond Category 3,
> this is a fairly serious matter.
Certainly this will be a complete disaster - the TC that hit Bangledesh
in 1970 killed between 300,000 and 500,000 people. The main killer was
the storm surge, much of the area isn't much higher than sea level. The
figures I have on this TC was only a Cat 2 (160km/h gusts)...although if
some one believes they have more reliable, conflicting figures, I'd be
more than happy to accept them (as this sounds too weak to be
believable...)
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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008
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 12:46:58 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nasty TC in Bay of Bengal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Anthony -
They said last night on CNN & BBC news that it was a Cat 4 TC with winds at
arounf 130 knots - normally I wouldnt believe the news but they both agreed so
they must be getting their info from somewhere.
Paul.
Anthony Cornelius on 29/10/99 12:34:08 PM
Please respond to aussie-weather at world.std.com
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
cc: (bcc: Paul Mossman/LCO/NSW_AG)
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nasty TC in Bay of Bengal
Hi Blair and all,
> A potentially very nasty tropical cyclone is currently churning away
> in the Bay of Bengal. It has sustained winds of 135 knots at present,
> making it a Category 4 storm. It is forecast to intensify further.
> Given that most Bay of Bengal storms don't get beyond Category 3,
> this is a fairly serious matter.
Certainly this will be a complete disaster - the TC that hit Bangledesh
in 1970 killed between 300,000 and 500,000 people. The main killer was
the storm surge, much of the area isn't much higher than sea level. The
figures I have on this TC was only a Cat 2 (160km/h gusts)...although if
some one believes they have more reliable, conflicting figures, I'd be
more than happy to accept them (as this sounds too weak to be
believable...)
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
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009
X-Originating-IP: [210.9.51.34]
From: "James Harris" [jimbohar at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: Last weekends Chase.......
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 13:44:56 EST
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi All,
I apologize for the lateness of this email. I have been having lots of
problems with my email and it is only now that I have been able to post this
SATURDAY 23 OCT
Well last weekend was a very interesting weekend with the rain really
starting to come down on Saturday morning in Sydney and the Low developing
to the north things were looking good for NW of Sydney.
After a quick check of the LI's and of the latest Sat pic of NSW it was
decided that the best place to head would be Dubbo. I set off and picked up
Jimmy on the way and were out of Sydney by 9am. We drove across the
mountains into Lithgow through steady rain, but as we came to Orange the
rain lightened up and revealed a nice looking band of rain and embedded
storms. What was interesting was that it was only 11:30am at this stage.
Nothing worth chasing as we though. The road from Orange heads N to Dubbo
and the whole way up we drove through constant heavy rain with the
occasional strike of lightning nearby. A quick phone call from Patrick and
Michael Bath assured us that we were not far from the end of the band. And
sure enough as we entered Dubbo at around 1pm we could see the clearing to
our N to NW.
We headed N from Dubbo towards Gilgandra and stopped about half way right
underneath the clearing. What a sight it was, perfect conditions also. There
were storms to the N, NE, E the rain storm band to SE and S with more
developing stuff to our W with some great accas to be seen in the clearing.
Another Phone call advised us that the storm to our NE was a Severe storm .
It certainly looked good with a nice boiling updraught coming from behind
but it looked a bit too far to go after and considering the speed they were
traveling it was decided it was not worth it and we would wait for the
action to the clearing in the W to develop. We also noted the inflow from SE
to NW of the developing storms to our NW. The visible low cloud was really
being pulled into the new system and the wind on ground level was extremely
strong.
We ducked into Gilgandra and picked up some lunch before heading onto the
road W to Warren. We stopped about 10 kms out of Gilgandra and watched as
the cloud cover had formed above and to our N to E a band of embedded storms
were once again teasing us to go after them. But still we stood our ground
and waited for the new development (now above and to the W) to do something.
There was now 100% cloud above us which is a pity as we couldn't see any
vertical development. By about 3pm heavy rain dropped from the sky to the S,
above us and to the N. Nothing too exciting though. What took our attention
though was the sky to the W. It had taken on a very dark appearance and so
was decided we would head further W and see what we could make of it. About
10kms further we pulled over to get some shots of a now active storm to the
W. It had a very nice green tinge with what seemed to
be a mixture of hail shafts and heavy rain underneath. There was however not
too much lightning to be seen. The cell passed and all that was witnessed
was one very close CG and some very heavy rain. Once passed there wasn't too
much further W at that stage just a lot of cloud cover. We headed back
towards the storm and Dubbo but couldn't catch it. Some very nice Mammatus
be seen from the back end. At 5pm we started back the journey to Sydney
.There was more developing Congestus turning to Cb to our west again, but it
looked very weak. Arrived back into Sydney about 10pm after traveling 900kms
for the day. It was definitely worth the trip and I know it gave me a great
incite on how Low pressure systems affect the weather across the state.
SUNDAY 24 OCT
9am - Once again a quick check of the LI's, winds and satellite and once
again I was off to Williamtown to meet up with Jimmy. There certainly was a
chance for some strong storms especially with the shear and the strong upper
level winds near the Hunter and Northwards.
On my way out I stopped at a lookout at the end of my street with a clear
view over the City and Southwards. Well I can see why Wollongong copped a
hammering. There was clear sky all around but to the South a wall of CB's .A
very pretty sight. I even had people walking past commenting on how amazing
it looked, and I m happy to say that I got some great shots and video of it.
By now it was around 10am , crap I was going to be late meeting Jimmy, but
it was worth it.Headed straight up the F3 and in no time at all was past
Newcastle. A quick call from Jimmy alerted me that there was already some
severe storms to our north near Taree and onwards. Bulahdelah was our new
target area. At Newcastle I ran into a decaying cell that was just dumping
alot of rain.I meet Jimmy near Buladelah at around 12:30pm and received a
call from Max who advised that the more intense cells had passed out across
the sea and were moving again at high speeds. There was one in particular
near Taree
that had been showing Red for a while. Apparently there was more development
to the N and NW of Taree all heading SE which at this stage was covered by
low cloud.
After a quick bite it was back on to the Pacific HWY towards Taree. On the
Bulladelah range we encountered a nice cell with some very heavy rain which
made the trip across quite interesting. On the other side we broke clear of
that cell and could see to our north through the broken middle level and low
level cloud some very nice anvils.Near Nabiac at around 1 - 2pm we picked up
some petrol and was advised by the garage owner that Taree had reported up
to golf ball size hail in places from the Big cell that went through about
12pm. A quick look out the window showed a very dark base heading towards
us. Unfortunately the low level cloud flowing into the cell was covering all
the features of it. A quick look again and it was decided to head N of the
cell hopefully to get a better view of it and to get out of the way off the
Hail. We ended up at Old Bar about 15km E of Taree and watched as the main
cell passed to our South. Some weaker cells with just heavy rain passed over
head but the annoying part was that the Lowcloud didn't clear so no
significant features could be seen, not even the back of the storm. Some
more calls from Max and Anthony gave us the news that the main stuff had
passed out to sea but there was stillmore developing to the W and SW.
It was now about 3pm and not wanting to be too far from home headed back to
Williamtown. We got there about 4:30pm and witnessed something that I have
never seen before. On the whole coastal fringe N and S was a mid- high level
Stratus type cloud. To
the W and NW was just blue sky, but very dry looking. Right on the edge of
the stratus cloud was a large congestus that had grown right through the
cloud layer. Just that looked great but what really made it special was the
fact that from side on we could see the whole formation of it very clearly.
This cloud also seemed to be rotating clockwise as it rose!!!! it sure was
a great example of the rotational shear that day it. It was just south of
Newcastle crossing the coast , no chance of going after it but a very nice
sight.
Back on the F3 again and heading to Sydney at about 6pm and another surprise
for us. Another Cell coming across from the W. With the Sun setting in the
background it sure made for some nice photo opportunities. At wyong we
passed to the side of it and was surprised again as hail started pounding
against the roof of the car. A quick stop at the Servo (protection for the
car) and some nice CC's and we were on our way home again. Another
interesting day chasing. It was great being able to get out and witness
these events first hand. A big thanks goes out to Anthony, Max, Michael,
Patrick and others who called with regular updates.
What a season so far ......... and its only October
______________________________________________________
Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
010
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nasty TC in Bay of Bengal
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 13:53:08 +1000 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>
>
>
> Anthony -
> They said last night on CNN & BBC news that it was a Cat 4 TC with winds at
> arounf 130 knots - normally I wouldnt believe the news but they both agreed so
> they must be getting their info from somewhere.
>
> Paul.
>
The Weather Channel's web site (www.weather.com) also backs this up.
This article also quotes possible storm surges of 6-12 metres. I
gather Bangladesh has a better emergency response system than they
did in 1970 (when there was also a lot of political unrest), but
evacuating everyone on the coast to higher ground, which is what the
Americans would be doing in a similar situation, is presumably still
beyond them.
Blair Trewin
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-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
011
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 14:03:47 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: NPMOC status...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
WX & ASWA-people,
I've just lost contact with http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/ from 13:30
today which is returning the error "client forbidden". Can this
be confirmed or otherwise by other persons on the list or in ASWA
ASAP please? I'm trying to isolate the problem.
Please note that if access is not restored from my computer, then
the hourly archive of gmsd/gmsc/gmsfull will cease and you will
need to obtain archive satpic images from elsewhere
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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012
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nasty TC in Bay of Bengal
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 14:06:48 +1000 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Just checked out the latest warnings (via the Hong Kong Weather
Underground) on this storm. The good news is that it isn't heading
for Bangladesh. The bad news is that it has intensified further and
now has sustained winds of 140 knots.
It is currently about 300km SSW of Calcutta and is expected to make
landfall by 0600Z (1600 AEST) about 60km NE of Cuttack (a city of
some size which I know of chiefly because Australia's played the
odd cricket game there). I don't know much about how heavily populated
this coastline is (although presumably there's no such thing as
sparsely populated coastline in India). Still, it sounds like a less
horrific scenario than it could have been (although I'd still expect
the death toll to be in the hundreds or thousands).
Blair Trewin
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013
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
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To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 14:24:57 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nasty TC in Bay of Bengal
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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Not good news for those over there - BUT excellent stuff Blair keep it up!
Paul
Blair Trewin on 29/10/99 02:06:48 PM
Please respond to aussie-weather at world.std.com
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
cc: (bcc: Paul Mossman/LCO/NSW_AG)
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Nasty TC in Bay of Bengal
Just checked out the latest warnings (via the Hong Kong Weather
Underground) on this storm. The good news is that it isn't heading
for Bangladesh. The bad news is that it has intensified further and
now has sustained winds of 140 knots.
It is currently about 300km SSW of Calcutta and is expected to make
landfall by 0600Z (1600 AEST) about 60km NE of Cuttack (a city of
some size which I know of chiefly because Australia's played the
odd cricket game there). I don't know much about how heavily populated
this coastline is (although presumably there's no such thing as
sparsely populated coastline in India). Still, it sounds like a less
horrific scenario than it could have been (although I'd still expect
the death toll to be in the hundreds or thousands).
Blair Trewin
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014
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: shear and SRH
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 04:28:53 GMT
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On Wed, 27 Oct 1999 15:27:03 +0000 (GMT), Harald Richter
wrote:
>Regarding supercell shear: I try and cut out the "middle man"
>and look at the 0-6 km shear vector. If that's big enough
>(40 kts +) I smile, if not, I write negative emails.
>I know, that 40+ value is an empirically based choice
>looking at Southern Plains (US) storms only. But at this
>stage (assuming the laws of physics are the same everywhere)
>I see no reason to adjust the value with latitude/time of year/other
>stuff.
>
The CIMSS satpic cloud motion data is useful here, showing the average
windsheer between the 925/700hPa layer and the 350/150hPa layer every
6 hours. They have also just introduced (yesterday) panels showing the
24-hour windsheer change. URL is
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/shemi/winds/winds.html
--
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/
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015
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 14:42:07 -1100 (DST)
From: Jonty Hall [jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au]
To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NPMOC status...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi Michael,
This is my first post here, so hi! everybody....
I can confirm that there is some trouble with http://www.npmoc.navy.mil -
I get the same error message.
All the information is stillavailable at the NRL Monterey California:
kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil:80/sat-bin/tc_home
At 00Z the cyclone was more or less on the coast not far from Cuttack and
had started to weaken rapidly. There is still good organisation there, but
the cloud tops have warmed considerably, and the eye was becoming ragged.
Definitely not a worse case scenario for Bangladesh, but not good either.
There has been strong on-shore winds up the entire Bay of Bengal striking
the Ganges delta - there will be a substantial storm surge there, even
though the cyclone did not hit directly. The forecast recurvature has been
delayed, and that has partially saved Bangladesh. But recurvature is still
likely, which will take the remains of the storm over Bangladesh. There's
going to be a lot of water hanging around there with not many places to
go.
A death toll in the thousands would seem likely all things considered, but
anything above 10 000 would be slightly surprising IMO (depening on the
immediate future of the TC of course).
Jonty.
____________________________________________________________________
Jonty Hall jdh at vortex.shm.monash.edu.au
CRC Southern Hemisphere Meteorology
Monash University
Wellington Road,
Clayton, Vic 3168
Ph +61 3 9905 9684
____________________________________________________________________
On Fri, 29 Oct 1999, Michael Scollay wrote:
> WX & ASWA-people,
>
> I've just lost contact with http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/ from 13:30
> today which is returning the error "client forbidden". Can this
> be confirmed or otherwise by other persons on the list or in ASWA
> ASAP please? I'm trying to isolate the problem.
>
> Please note that if access is not restored from my computer, then
> the hourly archive of gmsd/gmsc/gmsfull will cease and you will
> need to obtain archive satpic images from elsewhere
>
> Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
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016
X-Originating-IP: [203.21.6.48]
From: "Chris Gribben" [chrisgribben at hotmail.com]
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aus-wx: In Darwin
Date: Thu, 28 Oct 1999 22:27:25 PDT
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all - made it safely to Darwin - bloody hot although it is raining as we
speak. Storm already which is a good start. Cells galore atm - only clear
area really is the NW. Hector is going and is its usual 18-20km or so in
height. Cells from E round to the W. Off to have a look now and run around
in the rain to cool off a bit :)
May everyone get good storms
______________________________________________________
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017
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-FromDomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 15:37:05 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: In Darwin
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Im Jealous - only 8 days to go before Im there as well Chris!
Looking forward to it! Bring it on........
Paul.
"Chris Gribben" on 29/10/99 03:27:25 PM
Please respond to aussie-weather at world.std.com
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
cc: (bcc: Paul Mossman/LCO/NSW_AG)
Subject: aus-wx: In Darwin
Hi all - made it safely to Darwin - bloody hot although it is raining as we
speak. Storm already which is a good start. Cells galore atm - only clear
area really is the NW. Hector is going and is its usual 18-20km or so in
height. Cells from E round to the W. Off to have a look now and run around
in the rain to cool off a bit :)
May everyone get good storms
______________________________________________________
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018
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: NPMOC status...
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 15:36:07 +1000
Organization: Pixel Components
X-Mailer: Microsoft Internet E-mail/MAPI - 8.0.0.4211
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I have no problem at 3:35 AEST.
John.
>snip
WX & ASWA-people,
I've just lost contact with http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/ from 13:30
today which is returning the error "client forbidden". Can this
be confirmed or otherwise by other persons on the list or in ASWA
ASAP please? I'm trying to isolate the problem.
Please note that if access is not restored from my computer, then
the hourly archive of gmsd/gmsc/gmsfull will cease and you will
need to obtain archive satpic images from elsewhere
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
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019
X-Sender: cmaunder at mail.dynamite.com.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 3.0.5 (32)
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 15:51:13 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Chris Maunder [cmaunder at mail.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: In Darwin
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
At 10:27 PM 10/28/99 PDT, you wrote:
>Hi all - made it safely to Darwin - bloody hot although it is raining as we
>speak. Storm already which is a good start. Cells galore atm - only clear
>area really is the NW. Hector is going and is its usual 18-20km or so in
>height. Cells from E round to the W. Off to have a look now and run around
>in the rain to cool off a bit :)
Cruel, too cruel
Chris, in sunny, breezy, cloud-free Canberra.
------------------------------------
Chris Maunder Canberra, Australia
Dundas Software www.dundas.com
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020
From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aus-wx: NPMOC status...
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 05:50:34 GMT
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Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
On Fri, 29 Oct 1999 14:03:47 +1000, Michael Scollay
wrote:
>WX & ASWA-people,
>
>I've just lost contact with http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/ from 13:30
>today which is returning the error "client forbidden". Can this
>be confirmed or otherwise by other persons on the list or in ASWA
>ASAP please? I'm trying to isolate the problem.
>
I can get on to http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/ and
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/products/jtwc/GMSFull_ir2.jpg ok (at
15.50EST). The full ir2 is a bit strange, with the top 10% normal and
the bottom 90% reversed and purplish. Maybe they're having problems.
Laurier
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| Document: 991029.htm
Updated: 30 October 1999 |
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