|
Storm News
[Index][Aussie-Wx] |
Australian Weather Mailing List Archives: Wednesday, 13 October 1999 |
From Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 Harald Richter [spatz at atmos.albany.edu] on the ease of chasing
002 Harald Richter [spatz at atmos.albany.edu] road safety
003 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] NBC video (fwd))
004 "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au] Melbourne forecast for Friday
005 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au Melbourne forecast for Friday
006 Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com. NBC video (fwd))
007 "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au] Melbourne forecast for Friday
008 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU] Melbourne forecast for Friday
009 Michael Fewings [mike at strikeone.com.au] ASWA Photo Comp
010 "Nick Sykes" [nsykes at pacific.net.au] Melbourne forecast for Friday
011 "L.J. & B. Smail" [gws at pipeline.com.au] Melbourne forecast for Friday
012 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au] Storms for the SW
013 John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net] Melbourne forecast for Friday
014 "Clyve Herbert" [cadence at rubix.net.au] Forecasting
015 Michael Fewings [mike at strikeone.com.au] stat report for ASWA
016 "Nick Sykes" [nsykes at pacific.net.au] stat report for ASWA
017 Greg Spencer [hawk at iinet.net.au] Interesting evening for Perth
018 Halden Boyd [halden at lis.net.au] Re: AUS-WX SOUTH AUSTRALIA STORMS
019 Halden Boyd [halden at lis.net.au] AUS-WX SOUTH AUSTRALIA STORMS Epilogue
020 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] NBC video (fwd))
021 "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au] on the ease of chasing & Driving in the US
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001
From: Harald Richter [spatz at atmos.albany.edu]
Subject: aus-wx: on the ease of chasing
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Australian Severe Weather Association)
Date: Tue, 12 Oct 1999 14:04:48 +0000 (GMT)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4ME+ PL39 (25)]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
My impressions on this topic are based on contacts with a handful
of US chasers.
Australia is perceived as "another spot in the world" that
has a significant amount of tornadoes. Some think it might have
as many as the Southern Plains in the US. There is some
awareness that the road network makes chasing tough at best.
Even in the Plains states in the US the road network can make
a hash out of your chase. For example, this year I
(a) got stuck on a dirt (jelly) road after a storm had
passed over it previously in Nebraska; I took
the road as it connected to bitumen roads that were
a fair way apart [I know, I know, dirt roads after rain ...
silly, silly...]
(b) a storm on 31 May had a single bitumen road running EW
with not much else around in a +/- 25 km corridor
A multiplication of these difficulties by 10 or so can give
US chasers an appreciation of Australian chase conditions.
The biggest asset in the US is the data availability.
Surface data, and this includes various specimen of CAPE,
surface moisture convergence, wind, T, Td, etc.)
with mesoscale resolution are available hourly
(see http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/main2.htm )
and form the basis of a refined target decision.
There are additional data sources such as wind
profilers ( http://www-dd.fsl.noaa.gov/winds.html )
giving you hourly winds - what a luxury; it allows you
to pick your favourite 50 x 50 km^2 max shear box on
the map.
My understanding is that there is no equivalent Australian
data set at the moment, so a synoptic scale model such
as the AVN must be used to define a target of size 500 x 500 km^2
(+/- several tens to hundreds of kilometres due to model
forecast phase errors).
Combine that with the road network problem, and Australian
chasing is a near impossibility compared to the
relative convenience of Plains chasing.
These circumstances would filter out a lot of US chasers
under the "too-hard-basket" clause.
Solutions: one has to be more content to look
at the second/third best storm instead of the "most tornadic"
one. If you feel energetic, scramble together every single
observation you can get as soon as possible
(make sure you have a few friends in the BOM) -
that way the best possible chase target refinement can be done.
I'll stop rambling now,
Harald
----- Forwarded message from Michael Thompson -----
[snip]
I often wonder about the USA perception about Australian chasers, I did once
hear that many US chasers have come to the conclusion that tornadoes outside
the US are a non-event or freak occurrence, this being based solely on the
lack on pics on Australian sites.
At the risk of opening a can of worms( and rehashing a favourite topic ) I
must admit that my personal opinion is that I agree that they ( USA
chasers ) can come to that conclusion based on what they see. The other fear
I also have is that if any USA chasers come over here expecting things like
they are on the great plains then they will be very disappointed.
Having said that the reason is not lack of supercells, it is geography and
chase resources.
Many USA chasers will drive 300-400 miles to get the best areas, and they
have a road network that always this quickly and in relative safety.
Australian chasers as a rule do not cover such vast distances as the roads
are crap. Lets imagine we had a USA road setup allowing us to chase nearly
every available system in SE Australia, our pages would be full of
mesocyclones. But having adequate roads is one thing, have you ever looked
at the great plains geography and compared that to say the tablelands of
NSW, there is no comparison, what simply takes 50 miles of USA roads to
reach is often simply unreachable in Australia. An example of the bad roads
is that I live in reality less than 200 km from the lower Hunter, yet I
cannot drive there in less than near 4 hours.
One famous quote from you US chaser is that he loves the treeless great
plains as trees make him feel closed in - my advice don't chase eastern
Australia if you hate trees.
Secondly we do not have the technical resources, although this has improved
dramatically in the last couple of years. Thanks to the AVN and other models
we can now do some predictions about target areas. But we still lack live on
the road resource other than updates from friends.
Michael
> It seems I have to respond to every email Jane
> writes recently.
>
> This mail is about US storm chasers interested in
> storms that rotate clockwise. I know that there is a
> certain percentage of US chasers that is dying to chase
> mesocyclones with clockwise rotation (dangling above
> trees full of koalas drinking beer - the koalas, not the
> trees). With a consensus from this list
> I am happy to pass on some ASWA info/contact numbers
> to those US storm chasers who are interested in
> Australian severe weather. I firmly believe that this
> would benefit this list as well as the US chasers.
>
> Whaddaya think, folks?
>
> Harald
>
>
> ----- Forwarded message from Jane ONeill -----
>
> >From aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Mon Oct 11 10:06:16 1999
> From: "Jane ONeill"
> To: "Aussie Weather"
> Subject: aus-wx: NBC video
> Date: Mon, 11 Oct 1999 19:55:10 +1000
> Message-ID: <000601bf13ce$b4bc6720$da2208d2 at jane>
> X-Priority: 3 (Normal)
> X-MSMail-Priority: Normal
> X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook 8.5, Build 4.71.2173.0
> X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.2106.4
> Importance: Normal
> Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> Precedence: list
> Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>
> [Charset iso-8859-1 unsupported, filtering to ASCII...]
> The media both here and in the USA have suddenly become intensely
interested
> in ASWA!!!!!
>
> At the ASWA meeting in Melbourne on Saturday, I got a call from Donna
> Tolbert of NBC in California who was trying to find someone to interview
> regarding the 1983 Melbourne dust storm for their "World's Most Amazing
> Videos"!!!!! I've given her Dane Newman & Rod Aikman's email & mobile
phone
> numbers (only) - so you 2 guys should expect a phonecall probably
tomorrow.
> They want to have a camera crew in Melbourne either Wednesday or Thursday
> this week .......don't forget to wash your ASWA shirts and point the logo
at
> the camera if you agree to be interviewed
>
> Jane
>
> -------------------------------------------------------
> Jane ONeill
> ASWA - Victoria
> Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA Inc.)
> Melbourne Storm Chasers
> Email: cadence at rubix.net.au
> -------------------------------------------------------
>
>
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> ----- End of forwarded message from Jane ONeill -----
>
> --
> ------------------------------------------------------
> Harald Richter
> Postdoctoral Research Associate
> Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
> State University of New York at Albany
> 1400 Washington Avenue
> Albany, NY 12222
> phone: (518) 442-4273 fax: (518) 442-4494
> spatz at atmos.albany.edu
> http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/spatz/spatz.html
> ------------------------------------------------------
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
----- End of forwarded message from Michael Thompson -----
--
------------------------------------------------------
Harald Richter
Postdoctoral Research Associate
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
State University of New York at Albany
1400 Washington Avenue
Albany, NY 12222
phone: (518) 442-4273 fax: (518) 442-4494
spatz at atmos.albany.edu
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/spatz/spatz.html
------------------------------------------------------
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
002
From: Harald Richter [spatz at atmos.albany.edu]
Subject: aus-wx: road safety
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Australian Severe Weather Association)
Date: Tue, 12 Oct 1999 14:10:56 +0000 (GMT)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4ME+ PL39 (25)]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Uhhh, good point, Anthony. I have seen/heard of beautiful things
when the adrenalin starts flowing during a chase.
People park in the middle of a 100 km/h country highway
(sometimes facing the wrong way); usually once-a-year
4-wheel drive operators have remarkable skill
of turning their vehicle upside down on a steep
embankment; un-announced U-turns on country highways
can lead to spectacular, non-cloud video; shelter-seeling
under freeway overpasses can "close" a freeway at the approach
of a tornado (imagine being stuck in traffic jam with
an F4 offering to clear it up).
Adrenalin can do remarkable things to otherwise sane people;
the left/right side driving confusion is one among
many.
Harald
----- Forwarded message from Anthony Cornelius -----
Hi all,
Michael Thompson wrote:
Michael Thompson made me remember something that I thought I should
bring to any Australian (or anyone who drives on the left hand side of
the road) thinking of chasing, and hiring a car in the US.
This is quite a serious thought, so I hope people take it seriously.
When I was in the US just recently with my mum, we hired a car. This
was fine, and evening driving on the right hand side of the road (while
somewhat foreign) was fine. Perhaps what was hardest, was turning into
another street, you had to think. But still, this was fine, and we had
no problems.
The operative word in the above paragraph is "think" - what we often
think, is not always what our instinct tells us. And when we're in a
tight situation, our instinct normally takes over, and we no longer
think.
What am I saying here? Essentially, this. Driving on the right hand
side of the road was fine, UNTIL - while driving, my mother had to take
a turn at short notice, something that she was quite capable of doing,
however she had to react quickly, and instinct as per usual took over.
So what happened? She turned into the street, driving on the left hand
side of the road, narrowly missing two cars that had to stealthly veer
around us.
I have visions of something similar, possibly happening in the US,
during a storm chase. So often, while on storm chases, we'll see a road
nearby and say "Quickly! Turn into that road" - and that's fine, but if
you do so too quickly, your instinct will take over, and you will most
likely initially drive on the left hand side of the road. I'm guessing
that in the country, the odds of a car travelling down a small country
lane is quite low, but I felt it was possibly something you might want
to consider in terms of road safety. And safety should always be your
priority, and should never be compromised.
I'm not trying to discourage people from going to the US, and hiring a
car, but I'm just trying to make one aspect quite clear to you, that you
may have not yet fully contemplated. It may be even more difficult, if
you've been driving for 10, 15 even 20 odd years.
Hope some people find this helpful...
--
Anthony Cornelius
Queensland Coordinator of the Australian Severe Weather Association
(ASWA)
(07) 3390 4812
14 Kinsella St
Belmont, Brisbane
QLD, 4153
Please report severe thunderstorms on our Queensland severe thunderstorm
reporting line on (07) 3390 4218 or by going to our homepage at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
----- End of forwarded message from Anthony Cornelius -----
--
------------------------------------------------------
Harald Richter
Postdoctoral Research Associate
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
State University of New York at Albany
1400 Washington Avenue
Albany, NY 12222
phone: (518) 442-4273 fax: (518) 442-4494
spatz at atmos.albany.edu
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/spatz/spatz.html
------------------------------------------------------
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
003
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: US Chasing (was Re: aus-wx: NBC video (fwd))
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 1999 00:29:31 +1000
Organization: Pixel Components Pty Ltd
X-Mailer: Microsoft Internet E-mail/MAPI - 8.0.0.4211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I always found the worst situation was car parks. You are looking for a
park and you see an oncoming vehicle. It is not a road in the conventional
sense so instinct takes over. I had several nasty surprises.
John.
>snip
What am I saying here? Essentially, this. Driving on the right hand
side of the road was fine, UNTIL - while driving, my mother had to take
a turn at short notice, something that she was quite capable of doing,
however she had to react quickly, and instinct as per usual took over.
So what happened? She turned into the street, driving on the left hand
side of the road, narrowly missing two cars that had to stealthly veer
around us.
I
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
004
From: "Jane ONeill" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Melbourne forecast for Friday
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 1999 10:40:17 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Help!! I'm calling on the collective expertise of this group ........
The company I work for is meant to be having it's birthday barbeque on
Friday afternoon (day after tomorrow) - I have to give them a forecast by
3pm today as to whether we duck & weave raindrops while chasing a football,
or put it off till the following Friday.
I have my opinion about Friday's weather, but I'd like to be able to do a
statistical analysis of the opinions of a rather larger group .....
.......so, could you please send me your forecast for Melbourne for the
period 12pm - 5pm on Friday (this could be an interesting exercise
regardless of the reason behind it actually) - and if it's reeeeaaaalllyy
interesting - I'll have the afternoon off myself and go storm chasing
instead !!!!!
BTW, the report from Sunday's 625km chase to the west of Victoria is now up
at
http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/10_10_99.htm
Many thanks in anticipation for your help,
Jane ONeill
ASWA - Victoria
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
005
From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-FromDomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 1999 10:56:29 +1000
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne forecast for Friday
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I have an idea for you Jane. Don't worry bout the forecast - just ask Marty
along from Brisbane. I'm sure the weather will be fine, sunny and warm - but
Brisbane will prob have supercells by the dozen!
:-)
By the way I have a better way then Marty to scare off Storms - I just have to
email and they disappear! On Monday this week it was looking interesting for
some action - I sent the email and hey presto 3 drops of rain and then the skies
cleared!
Beat that one!
Paul at Port.
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
006
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 1999 10:51:32 +1000
From: Michael Scollay [michael.scollay at telstra.com.au]
Organization: Telstra Strategy & Research
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (X11; I; SunOS 5.5.1 sun4m)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: US Chasing (was Re: aus-wx: NBC video (fwd))
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Anthony Cornelius wrote on Tue, 12 Oct 1999 22:10:05 +1000:
>
> Hi all,
>
> Michael Thompson wrote:
>
>
> Michael Thompson made me remember something that I thought I should
> bring to any Australian (or anyone who drives on the left hand side of
> the road) thinking of chasing, and hiring a car in the US...
>
[snip remainder of Anthony's email]
This is something that I can add some value about having driven
well over 60,000km on roads in the US, Mexico, Europe, Turkey,
Italy, France, UK, various African countries and India. I separate
those European countries for reasons that will become obvious
concerning the "other driver's attitude" which seems to be a
city/cultural thing.
1) To me and my wife, driving on the RHS is as instinctive as
being on the LHS. This is in either LHD or RHD vehicles in either
situation. If you do it enough, one just switches driving context.
That's really important when it comes to understanding instinctive
driving behavior.
2) When you drive in an foriegn context, you are generally "on
guard". Like others have said, when aussie LHS instinct takes over,
that's when you have problems.
3) Our major problem was on return to Australia. This was when we
fell back into what we thought was our natural driving instinct.
On making a LH turn one day after coming back from the beach, I
naturally went onto the RHS (It was just a day or two after
returning from the US). Neither my wife or I thought this was
strange and wondered why the cars further up the hill coming
toward us were on "our side"! An important point was that we were
not following any cars going our way (examples) and there were no
cars on the LHS for the entire length of the hill (clues). When
we realised our fault, it was a stern reminder that when you
return to Australia, you initially need to behave as if you
are a foreigner "on guard".
4) Don't navigate and drive. I did this on picking up a rental
vehicle in Paris to drive it back into the UK that afternoon.
I can still feel and remember the blood pressure excess apparent
when trying to work out the Peripheric(?) around Paris at 80
to 100kph with French drivers zipping around behind and in
front of me doing 20kph more. My little long-term hire car
only had 4km on it's odometer and certainly not "run-in".
5) Take a LHD vehicle into the UK rather than a RHD vehicle
into Europe. PoM's are more polite than Europeans in general.
RHD vehicles with "UK" on their bumbers seem to be targeted
for theft and agressive driving behavior, particularly in
France.
6) In major cities mainly, French, Italian, Turkish, Spanish,
Indians and some East African drivers are basically maniacs.
A good dose of Sydney driving is good preparation for the cut
and thrust, random rules driving technique among those people.
Once you make a decision, go for it and don't stop. If you do,
be prepared for a barage of abuse and maybe a bust-up. The
rest of Europe seems more controlled, particularly in Germany
and Scandinavian countries. These people are stickers for
rules, so know them. The UK and US are great places to drive
in comparison. Mexico is a bit more random.
7) Perform socio-economic adjustments. That is take note of
the robustness of the other vehicles. You may well find your-
self rendering assistance or donating a nut/bolt. Don't make
firm plans either as it can take days to get around in Africa,
India and Mexico due to poor road conditions and/or carnage.
People, in general, are great, regardless of race, within the
poorer countries. That's part of the cultural experience.
8) Other than the above, use public transport.
Other than the above, there is a wealth of experience to be
had in other countries, so enjoy it and plan to avoid stress
out situations that fray the nerves.
Michael Scollay mailto:michael.scollay at telstra.com.au
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
007
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "Nandina Morris" [nandina at alphalink.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne forecast for Friday
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 99 11:40:46 PDT
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by europe.std.com id VAA13174
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Jane - hey, I'm so glad you asked me. I believe Friday will be wettish with some dryish periods. Between 3 and 4 will be dryish (for my drive home). This has been scientifically researched by asking my cat. She knows, you know.
Cheers,
Nandina
nandina at alphalink.com.au
----------
>
> Help!! I'm calling on the collective expertise of this group ........
>
> The company I work for is meant to be having it's birthday barbeque on
> Friday afternoon (day after tomorrow) - I have to give them a forecast by
> 3pm today as to whether we duck & weave raindrops while chasing a football,
> or put it off till the following Friday.
>
> I have my opinion about Friday's weather, but I'd like to be able to do a
> statistical analysis of the opinions of a rather larger group .....
>
> .......so, could you please send me your forecast for Melbourne for the
> period 12pm - 5pm on Friday (this could be an interesting exercise
> regardless of the reason behind it actually) - and if it's reeeeaaaalllyy
> interesting - I'll have the afternoon off myself and go storm chasing
> instead !!!!!
>
> BTW, the report from Sunday's 625km chase to the west of Victoria is now up
> at
> http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/10_10_99.htm
>
>
> Many thanks in anticipation for your help,
>
> Jane ONeill
> ASWA - Victoria
>
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
008
From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne forecast for Friday
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 1999 11:40:51 +1000 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
>
>
> Help!! I'm calling on the collective expertise of this group ........
>
> The company I work for is meant to be having it's birthday barbeque on
> Friday afternoon (day after tomorrow) - I have to give them a forecast by
> 3pm today as to whether we duck & weave raindrops while chasing a football,
> or put it off till the following Friday.
>
> I have my opinion about Friday's weather, but I'd like to be able to do a
> statistical analysis of the opinions of a rather larger group .....
>
> .......so, could you please send me your forecast for Melbourne for the
> period 12pm - 5pm on Friday (this could be an interesting exercise
> regardless of the reason behind it actually) - and if it's reeeeaaaalllyy
> interesting - I'll have the afternoon off myself and go storm chasing
> instead !!!!!
>
The models now all have the front through Melbourne (mostly well
through) by 1200Z on Friday. Given this I think the period of rain
is most likely to be during the daylight hours of Friday, although it's
a bit early to call whether it will be morning or afternoon. The
predicted rainfall amounts from the system have also fallen somewhat.
Blair Trewin
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
009
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 1999 10:05:12 +0800
From: Michael Fewings [mike at strikeone.com.au]
Organization: Strike One Lightning Photos
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: ASWA Photo Comp
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
I missed the newsletter last Sunday hence this post.
Submissions are open for the new months photos.
The theme?
Precipitation & Virga (basically anything falling from
clouds except skydivers)
Cut off date for submissions is the 26th of October 1999.
Please provide an explanation (Only short) about your photo
so that it makes it interesting to read and please make it
400 pixels across (or larger and I will scale it back).
I have seen some beauty precipitation photos on peoples
sites in Australia or you may have one that you have never
shown to publicly before that you could submit.
Further details are available from
http://www.severeweather.asn.au/photo
Please email submissions to webmaster at severeweather.asn.au
and last months winners can be congratulated at
http://www.severeweather.asn.au/photo/photos.htm
Kind regards
--
Michael Fewings
Photographer of:
Strike One Lightning Photos
http://strikeone.com.au
Web Master of:
Australian Severe Weather Association Inc.
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
010
From: "Nick Sykes" [nsykes at pacific.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne forecast for Friday
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 1999 12:27:10 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Well I have to put my to cents worth in. Friday afternoon I'm expecting a
pretty piss poor rainband to come through with absolutely no storms (I'm
using reverse phycology now).
Expect cloudy conditions with a fresh northerly. Not the best day for a BBQ.
> >
> > Help!! I'm calling on the collective expertise of this group ........
> >
> > The company I work for is meant to be having it's birthday barbeque on
> > Friday afternoon (day after tomorrow) - I have to give them a forecast
by
> > 3pm today as to whether we duck & weave raindrops while chasing a
football,
> > or put it off till the following Friday.
> >
> > I have my opinion about Friday's weather, but I'd like to be able to do
a
> > statistical analysis of the opinions of a rather larger group .....
> >
> > .......so, could you please send me your forecast for Melbourne for the
> > period 12pm - 5pm on Friday (this could be an interesting exercise
> > regardless of the reason behind it actually) - and if it's
reeeeaaaalllyy
> > interesting - I'll have the afternoon off myself and go storm chasing
> > instead !!!!!
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
011
X-Sender: gws at mail.pipeline.com.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.1 (32)
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 1999 13:44:51 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: "L.J. & B. Smail" [gws at pipeline.com.au]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: Melbourne forecast for Friday
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Dear Jane,
I'm with Blair on this one. But if you keep putting things off in
Melbourne (or Geelong for that matter) on account of someone's prediction
two days in advance nothing would ever happen!
Regards, Lindsay Smail
At 10:40 AM 13-10-99 +1000, you wrote:
>
>Help!! I'm calling on the collective expertise of this group ........
>
>The company I work for is meant to be having it's birthday barbeque on
>Friday afternoon (day after tomorrow) - I have to give them a forecast by
>3pm today as to whether we duck & weave raindrops while chasing a football,
>or put it off till the following Friday.
>
> I have my opinion about Friday's weather, but I'd like to be able to do a
>statistical analysis of the opinions of a rather larger group .....
>
>.......so, could you please send me your forecast for Melbourne for the
>period 12pm - 5pm on Friday (this could be an interesting exercise
>regardless of the reason behind it actually) - and if it's reeeeaaaalllyy
>interesting - I'll have the afternoon off myself and go storm chasing
>instead !!!!!
>
>BTW, the report from Sunday's 625km chase to the west of Victoria is now up
>at
>http://www.rubix.net.au/~cadence/10_10_99.htm
>
>
>Many thanks in anticipation for your help,
>
>Jane ONeill
>ASWA - Victoria
>
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
012
X-Sender: jacob at mail.iinet.net.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Pro Version 4.1
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 1999 12:11:22 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Storms for the SW
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
IDW11W00
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE
PRIORITY
FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WIND WARNING
Issued at 10:00 am WST on Wednesday, 13 October 1999
For the area south west of a line from Kalbarri to Esperance including the
Perth
metropolitan area.
A strong cold front, accompanied by thunderstorms and heavy rain, is
expected to
cross the south west coast this evening . Severe winds gusting up to 120 km/h
may cause damage to property.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should secure loose objects and
stay indoors when severe winds develop. Boat owners should ensure that small
craft are securely moored.
The next advice will be issued at 4:00pm.
Jacob
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
013
From: John Woodbridge [jrw at pixelcom.net]
To: "'aussie-weather at world.std.com'" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: RE: aus-wx: Melbourne forecast for Friday
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 1999 14:44:14 +1000
Organization: Pixel Components
X-Mailer: Microsoft Internet E-mail/MAPI - 8.0.0.4211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Weeeelll, were talking Melbourne here arn't we.
So, given that it is supposed to be Spring, we can cut that out, because it
is well Melbourne after all. So I'll go for Summer until 2:00pm, Winter
until 4:00 with a brief respite to Autumn until 5.
Looks like nasty Southerlies any time from midday on, I'd recommend
brollies and suggest the BBQ be held rather close to the nearest pub.
John.
>snip
>
>.......so, could you please send me your forecast for Melbourne for the
>period 12pm - 5pm on Friday (this could be an interesting exercise
>regardless of the reason behind it actually) - and if it's reeeeaaaalllyy
>interesting - I'll have the afternoon off myself and go storm chasing
>instead !!!!!
>
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
014
From: "Clyve Herbert" [cadence at rubix.net.au]
To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Forecasting
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 1999 15:03:41 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> But if you keep putting things off in Melbourne (or Geelong for that
matter)
>on account of someone's prediction
> two days in advance nothing would ever happen!
I made the prediction of a rain event from Wednesday(today) through to
Friday on Monday 11/10/99. This compared to the BoM prognosis of mainly
fine weather continuing through the week until at least Friday & even they
themselves admitted that their models didn't align in a way that gave
anything conclusive until at least Tuesday afternoon when they forecast
increasing cloud on Wednesday and patchy rain in western & northern areas of
Victoria.
Simple analysis of the cloud mass building up over central & NW Australia on
Tuesday showed some potential for this mass to be advected SE judging by its
motion at that time and the steering flow at 300hPa - this didn't require
model prognosis, and as it turned out this is exactly what happened.
Visual analysis of cloud & even storm motion is very important in weather
forecasting. The 500 & 300 hPa steering flows are always good indicators of
system movement either in decay or in generation. What we have to be
careful of is not to be overimpressed by the predicted steering flow
provided by computer models, where that steering flow is not related to the
actual 300hPa flow but to the hypothetical analysis of a steering flow
generated in our own brains.
Clyve Herbert
ASWA - Victoria
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
015
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 1999 13:44:54 +0800
From: Michael Fewings [mike at strikeone.com.au]
Organization: Strike One Lightning Photos
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: stat report for ASWA
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi all,
This will probably bore many of you to sleep but for those
who are interested it is a report of logs to the ASWA site
for the period of the whole time the site has been up until
today.
It shows which radars are more popular and how many page
views and the like.
Lots of information in there for those interested
http://severeweather.asn.au/members/FlashStats.html
Regards
--
Michael Fewings
Photographer of:
Strike One Lightning Photos
http://strikeone.com.au
Web Master of:
Australian Severe Weather Association Inc.
http://www.severeweather.asn.au
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
016
From: "Nick Sykes" [nsykes at pacific.net.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: stat report for ASWA
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 1999 16:14:33 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2314.1300
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
I love those stats, me stat junky
Come on Vics lets pull the Melbourne radar to the top of the list :)
(bad sacastic humour warning) Theres nothing more inspiring than looking at
radar blips on a fine day.
onto tonight, possible storm?
Nick
> Hi all,
>
> This will probably bore many of you to sleep but for those
> who are interested it is a report of logs to the ASWA site
> for the period of the whole time the site has been up until
> today.
>
> It shows which radars are more popular and how many page
> views and the like.
>
> Lots of information in there for those interested
>
> http://severeweather.asn.au/members/FlashStats.html
>
> Regards
> --
> Michael Fewings
>
> Photographer of:
> Strike One Lightning Photos
> http://strikeone.com.au
>
> Web Master of:
> Australian Severe Weather Association Inc.
> http://www.severeweather.asn.au
>
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
017
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 1999 16:41:17 +0800
From: Greg Spencer [hawk at iinet.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.6 [en] (Win98; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather Mailing List [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aus-wx: Interesting evening for Perth
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hi There
Just had a look at the obs before heading to TAFE. Perth metro is down
to 997.3hpa at 16:40 local time. and from the look of the latest
synoptic chart its gonna get lower.
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/national/charts/synoptic.shtml
There's also a severe wind warning current for the metro area with winds
gusting to 120kmph.
Regards
Greg
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
018
X-Sender: halden at mail.lis.net.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.6 (32)
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 1999 18:45:46 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Halden Boyd [halden at lis.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: Re: AUS-WX SOUTH AUSTRALIA STORMS
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Hiya All.....
I watched that pink band of storms pass through Adelaide and the hills this
afternoon while I was at work....I phoned a number of newsagents and pubs
in the pink areas (great sources for information) and they all basically
said there was not much electricity in them but quite heavy and sharp rain.
I had no reports of hail. The BOM issued a severe advice but downgraded it
late afternoon....
Cheers Halden
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
019
X-Sender: halden at mail.lis.net.au
X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.6 (32)
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 1999 18:48:45 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Halden Boyd [halden at lis.net.au]
Subject: aus-wx: AUS-WX SOUTH AUSTRALIA STORMS Epilogue
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Sorry....an annexure to the last message...I called my colleagues at ABC
Adelaide and they said there were no reports of damage....looks like it's
Melbourne's day tomorrow...Halden
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
020
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: US Chasing (was Re: aus-wx: NBC video (fwd))
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 1999 19:56:29 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Actually I remembered the most dangerous thing ! crossing the road on foot.
The first day of my 1985 trip in Honululu I went for walk came to Zebra
crossing and looked once and decided the road was clear and nearly walked
straight into a car, remember you have to look the other way too !
I found that pedestrian crossings did not hold the same traffic stopping
powers of Australian crossings too
Michael
> 1) To me and my wife, driving on the RHS is as instinctive as
> being on the LHS. This is in either LHD or RHD vehicles in either
> situation. If you do it enough, one just switches driving context.
> That's really important when it comes to understanding instinctive
> driving behavior.
>
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
021
From: "Michael Thompson" [michaelt at ozemail.com.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aus-wx: on the ease of chasing & Driving in the US
Date: Wed, 13 Oct 1999 19:48:56 +1000
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 5.00.2014.211
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Thanks Harald, I agree with what you say. I have driven approx 14,000 miles
on USA roads and in only 2 months of total visits in 1985 and '87, something
that stuns many US people I talk to. I even have all the mileage in diary.
I was primarily into surfing at that time, although I did drive from New
York to Florida to chase Hurricane Elena and only saw the outer bands, but
scored some nice thunderstorms later.
Unless the roads have deteriorated somewhat in the last 12 years over there,
the roads are something only Australia chasers can dream about. For any
given storm setup you can at a guess get 75% of the way there on interstates
or other class highways, I know for the last 25% you may have to take back
roads, etc, but in Australia a typical chase is 90% on one lane either way
highways with speed restricted corners and no town / city by-passes.
I find Anthony's comments on his driving in the US experience interesting
too. Seeing that it's probably only a matter of time before a contingent of
Aussie chasers may invade I have the following advice.
The driving on the other side of road is not as big an issue as I feared,
the steering, etc is all the other side too, therefore your perspective to
the middle of the road is the same, if you get what I mean.
I got caught out only twice and both occasions coming out of private
driveways onto empty roads. Once in New Jersey coming out of a cinema
carpark late at night, and on another occasion coming out of a Flagstaff,
Az.motel driveway onto a dirt road, on both occasions as soon as I saw
another car in the distance I knew my mistake and pulled over without
panicking.
The US road numbering system works like a treat. Instead of looking for
signs pointing to towns/cities, etc, you look for road numbers, this works
really well.
Petrol is still much cheaper then in Australia. Only mugs hire cars before
they get to the US. However, most base hire charges do not include
insurance, make sure you pay for it and full cover. Similar with
accommodation, outside the USA school holidays June - Labour Day I think ?
accommodation is plentiful and cheap, only mugs organise accommodation
before leaving Australia. It is OK to book ahead with a cheap / moderate
chain when over there, and convenient if you know that you will be a certain
city at a certain time, just don't book it from Australia, unless of course
it is free.
Michael
>
> My impressions on this topic are based on contacts with a handful
> of US chasers.
>
> Australia is perceived as "another spot in the world" that
> has a significant amount of tornadoes. Some think it might have
> as many as the Southern Plains in the US. There is some
> awareness that the road network makes chasing tough at best.
>
> Even in the Plains states in the US the road network can make
> a hash out of your chase. For example, this year I
>
> (a) got stuck on a dirt (jelly) road after a storm had
> passed over it previously in Nebraska; I took
> the road as it connected to bitumen roads that were
> a fair way apart [I know, I know, dirt roads after rain ...
> silly, silly...]
>
> (b) a storm on 31 May had a single bitumen road running EW
> with not much else around in a +/- 25 km corridor
>
> A multiplication of these difficulties by 10 or so can give
> US chasers an appreciation of Australian chase conditions.
>
> The biggest asset in the US is the data availability.
> Surface data, and this includes various specimen of CAPE,
> surface moisture convergence, wind, T, Td, etc.)
> with mesoscale resolution are available hourly
> (see http://www.spc.noaa.gov/sfctest/main2.htm )
> and form the basis of a refined target decision.
> There are additional data sources such as wind
> profilers ( http://www-dd.fsl.noaa.gov/winds.html )
> giving you hourly winds - what a luxury; it allows you
> to pick your favourite 50 x 50 km^2 max shear box on
> the map.
>
> My understanding is that there is no equivalent Australian
> data set at the moment, so a synoptic scale model such
> as the AVN must be used to define a target of size 500 x 500 km^2
> (+/- several tens to hundreds of kilometres due to model
> forecast phase errors).
> Combine that with the road network problem, and Australian
> chasing is a near impossibility compared to the
> relative convenience of Plains chasing.
> These circumstances would filter out a lot of US chasers
> under the "too-hard-basket" clause.
> Solutions: one has to be more content to look
> at the second/third best storm instead of the "most tornadic"
> one. If you feel energetic, scramble together every single
> observation you can get as soon as possible
> (make sure you have a few friends in the BOM) -
> that way the best possible chase target refinement can be done.
>
>
> I'll stop rambling now,
>
> Harald
>
>
>
> ----- Forwarded message from Michael Thompson -----
>
> [snip]
>
> I often wonder about the USA perception about Australian chasers, I did
once
> hear that many US chasers have come to the conclusion that tornadoes
outside
> the US are a non-event or freak occurrence, this being based solely on the
> lack on pics on Australian sites.
>
> At the risk of opening a can of worms( and rehashing a favourite topic ) I
> must admit that my personal opinion is that I agree that they ( USA
> chasers ) can come to that conclusion based on what they see. The other
fear
> I also have is that if any USA chasers come over here expecting things
like
> they are on the great plains then they will be very disappointed.
>
> Having said that the reason is not lack of supercells, it is geography and
> chase resources.
>
> Many USA chasers will drive 300-400 miles to get the best areas, and they
> have a road network that always this quickly and in relative safety.
> Australian chasers as a rule do not cover such vast distances as the roads
> are crap. Lets imagine we had a USA road setup allowing us to chase nearly
> every available system in SE Australia, our pages would be full of
> mesocyclones. But having adequate roads is one thing, have you ever looked
> at the great plains geography and compared that to say the tablelands of
> NSW, there is no comparison, what simply takes 50 miles of USA roads to
> reach is often simply unreachable in Australia. An example of the bad
roads
> is that I live in reality less than 200 km from the lower Hunter, yet I
> cannot drive there in less than near 4 hours.
>
> One famous quote from you US chaser is that he loves the treeless great
> plains as trees make him feel closed in - my advice don't chase eastern
> Australia if you hate trees.
>
> Secondly we do not have the technical resources, although this has
improved
> dramatically in the last couple of years. Thanks to the AVN and other
models
> we can now do some predictions about target areas. But we still lack live
on
> the road resource other than updates from friends.
>
> Michael
>
>
>
> > It seems I have to respond to every email Jane
> > writes recently.
> >
> > This mail is about US storm chasers interested in
> > storms that rotate clockwise. I know that there is a
> > certain percentage of US chasers that is dying to chase
> > mesocyclones with clockwise rotation (dangling above
> > trees full of koalas drinking beer - the koalas, not the
> > trees). With a consensus from this list
> > I am happy to pass on some ASWA info/contact numbers
> > to those US storm chasers who are interested in
> > Australian severe weather. I firmly believe that this
> > would benefit this list as well as the US chasers.
> >
> > Whaddaya think, folks?
> >
> > Harald
> >
> >
> > ----- Forwarded message from Jane ONeill -----
> >
> > >From aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com Mon Oct 11 10:06:16 1999
> > From: "Jane ONeill"
> > To: "Aussie Weather"
> > Subject: aus-wx: NBC video
> > Date: Mon, 11 Oct 1999 19:55:10 +1000
> > Message-ID: <000601bf13ce$b4bc6720$da2208d2 at jane>
> > X-Priority: 3 (Normal)
> > X-MSMail-Priority: Normal
> > X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook 8.5, Build 4.71.2173.0
> > X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.2106.4
> > Importance: Normal
> > Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
> > Precedence: list
> > Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> >
> > [Charset iso-8859-1 unsupported, filtering to ASCII...]
> > The media both here and in the USA have suddenly become intensely
> interested
> > in ASWA!!!!!
> >
> > At the ASWA meeting in Melbourne on Saturday, I got a call from Donna
> > Tolbert of NBC in California who was trying to find someone to interview
> > regarding the 1983 Melbourne dust storm for their "World's Most Amazing
> > Videos"!!!!! I've given her Dane Newman & Rod Aikman's email & mobile
> phone
> > numbers (only) - so you 2 guys should expect a phonecall probably
> tomorrow.
> > They want to have a camera crew in Melbourne either Wednesday or
Thursday
> > this week .......don't forget to wash your ASWA shirts and point the
logo
> at
> > the camera if you agree to be interviewed
> >
> > Jane
> >
> > -------------------------------------------------------
> > Jane ONeill
> > ASWA - Victoria
> > Australian Severe Weather Assocn (ASWA Inc.)
> > Melbourne Storm Chasers
> > Email: cadence at rubix.net.au
> > -------------------------------------------------------
> >
> >
> >
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
> > ----- End of forwarded message from Jane ONeill -----
> >
> > --
> > ------------------------------------------------------
> > Harald Richter
> > Postdoctoral Research Associate
> > Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
> > State University of New York at Albany
> > 1400 Washington Avenue
> > Albany, NY 12222
> > phone: (518) 442-4273 fax: (518) 442-4494
> > spatz at atmos.albany.edu
> > http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/spatz/spatz.html
> > ------------------------------------------------------
> > +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> > To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail
to:majordomo at world.std.com
> > with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of
your
> > message.
> > -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
> >
>
>
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
> ----- End of forwarded message from Michael Thompson -----
>
> --
> ------------------------------------------------------
> Harald Richter
> Postdoctoral Research Associate
> Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
> State University of New York at Albany
> 1400 Washington Avenue
> Albany, NY 12222
> phone: (518) 442-4273 fax: (518) 442-4494
> spatz at atmos.albany.edu
> http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/spatz/spatz.html
> ------------------------------------------------------
> +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
> To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
> with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
> message.
> -----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
>
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from aussie-weather send e-mail to:majordomo at world.std.com
with "unsubscribe aussie-weather your_email_address" in the body of your
message.
-----------------------jacob at iinet.net.au------------------------------
| Document: 991013.htm
Updated: 30 October 1999 |
[Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] |