From                                           Subject
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001 "Grant Boyden" [boyden at zeta.org.au]            Sydney
002 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au                    Sydney
003 "Grant Boyden" [boyden at zeta.org.au]            Sydney
004 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au                    Media Communication of Severe Thunderstorms.
005 Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]                     Perth Storms
006 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au                    Perth Storms
007 "2KY Racing Radio" [boyden at zeta.org.au]        Media Communication Of Servere Thunderstorms
008 Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]        Wilsons Prom gust equ
009 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au                    Media Role in Severe Thunderstorm Information Distribution.
010 Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au                    Media Role in Severe Thunderstorm Information
011 steve baynham [bayns at nor.com.au]               gold coast storm & media
012 "Terry Bishop" [dymprog at mpx.com.au]            No action at Orange.
013 mildad [mildad at one.net.au]                     (no subject)
014 Ben Quinn [bodie at corplink.com.au]              Queensland weather
015 Ben Quinn [bodie at corplink.com.au]              Great Page
016 Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au]       storm chase 30/12/98
017 Paul Graham [pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au]        Sydney to Hobart Disaster...
018 Andrew Puddifer [andypudd at backmeup.net.au]     Sydney to Hobart Disaster...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
001

From: "Grant Boyden" [boyden at zeta.org.au]
To: "Aussie Weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aussie-weather: Sydney
Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1998 10:38:46 +1100
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Good Morning all,

The lastest from Sydney is 6-7 oct. of CU cloud.
temp. 26%
Hum65%
barr: jumped up to 1014

10:30am

How are things where you are.
******************************************
Grant Boyden

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
002

From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1998 10:49:14 +1000
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Sydney
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Howdy Grant.

Taree is currently very warm, humid, with Some low level cloud. Looks like
good weather for a storm but i doubit it! (man Im starting to get
cynical!!)

Paul from Taree

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
003

From: "Grant Boyden" [boyden at zeta.org.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Sydney
Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1998 11:13:24 +1100
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----------
> From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
> To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
> Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Sydney
> Date: Wednesday, 30 December 1998 11:49
> 
> 
> 
> Howdy Grant.
> 
> Taree is currently very warm, humid, with Some low level cloud. Looks
like
> good weather for a storm but i doubit it! (man Im starting to get
> cynical!!)
> 
> Paul from Taree
> 
> 
Top of the morning to u.

Yeah, funny patern we are in at the moment. the days look like we should
get a storm but!!!!! no result.

I bet if we didn't want them they would come 3 or 4 a day.

******************************************
Grant Boyden

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
004

From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1998 11:31:50 +1000
Subject: aussie-weather: Media Communication of Severe Thunderstorms.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



For some time this has been worrying me. It was all the more evident when I
was in Darwin and saw how the media handled the TC Thelma. A bulletin was
on every hour, describing its location with recent satpics, radar (on
differing channels) and a constant warning tone & flashing letters. Updated
Bulletins from the BOm every 3 hours provided the necessary info &
warnings. It leads me to this:- with all the current devastation from
severe storms in Australia, and my recent experience with what I believe
was a mesocyclonic Supercell - the warning system is totally inadequate.
And its not the BOms fault either. The local radio stations in the
Yamba/Ballina/Lismore areas DID NOT EVEN mention the weather let alone the
severe storm warnings that were issued (I was listening to the heat Fm
station.) This caused many people to be caught totally unawares, especially
regarding the fact that the storm came from literally "nowhere" and caused
such devastation & loss.

I just heard again an advertisement for the natural disaster warning tone
on the radio, advising people if they hear that then there is going to be a
urgent message which they need to listen to? Why is this not being used for
Severe Storm warnings? Indeed the North Coast storms possibly caused more
damage then the Cat 5 TC Thlema did, yet NO warnings were received by most
of the population that were effected!

It is amazing that no real issues have yet been raised by those most
effected inc farmers with regards to these warning systems. I realise that
some people don't want to panic people unnecessarily or become too
"Americanised" BUT peoples safety should be paramount to the adage "she'll
be right mate!" Certainly If my property had been damage due to inadequate
warning, I would be causing some stir. Now I realise that sometimes even
warnings are not going to stop property damage, BUT will stop loss of life
(hopefully). Maybe this is something we as an Association can change.  I am
going to try and approach NBN ( a local TV station) with regards to
implementing this, and what their thoughts are (considering that they cover
a large area of affected places inc NW Slopes, NE, etc.)

Hopefully some of the BOM guys/gals are listening and I would appreciate
their comments esp. if this Assoc can be of assistance to them.

While I am raising some contentious issues, how about the weekend weather
services! Are they not shit! What a load of crap (not the BOMs - the
media's). The last 4 days of the holiday weekend all we have had is Sunny -
no outlooks, no District forecasts, no anything! Not even a satpic! Crap
crap crap.................

Anyways, appreciate all your thoughts.

Regards, Paul.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
005

X-Sender: jacob at iinet.net.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.1 (32)
Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1998 10:21:15 +0800
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Jacob [jacob at iinet.net.au]
Subject: aussie-weather: Perth Storms
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Quite hot in Perth this morning, its 10am, the current temp is 33.9C, we've
got about 6/8 cloud cover right now with the chance of some thunderstorms
today.

FORECAST FOR METROPOLITAN AREA
Issued at 0835 hours on Wednesday, 30/12/98
ISSUED BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY PERTH
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

The temperature at  8:30am was 28.5 degrees Celsius.

PERTH AND METROPOLITAN:
Hot with a shower or two and the risk of a thunderstorm.
E'ly winds and a mid afternoon sea breeze.
Squalls possible near thunderstorms.

 MAX 37.

 FIRE DANGER: Coastal Plain:   Very High.
              Hills        :   Very High.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
006

From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1998 14:07:18 +1000
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Perth Storms
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Howdy jacob!

Its 31c here with 70% humidity, low level cu with some vertical development
now. The BOm says chance of arvo showers, hopefully it may develop to
soemthing more.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
007

From: "2KY Racing Radio" [boyden at zeta.org.au]
To: [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aussie-weather: Media Communication Of Servere Thunderstorms
Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1998 15:13:28 +1100
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Hello all,

Let me start off by saying that these views do not reflect the management or
staff here at 2KY, just my own.

Paul today posted a question about why the Media are so slack in
broadcasting information on storms.
Some of his comments were well thought out and very true except for blaming
the media.

While I don�t claim or want to be a spokesperson for the media on this list
I feel I can add some information to
those that don�t have a connection with media agencies.

I have been a member of the media for around 7 years now, in that time I
have taken up roles in Announcing,
Producing and News reading.

I can recall once reading a weather bulletin at 12 noon that read, �A fine,
warm to very warm sunny day with the
chance of an afternoon shower.�  That read was issued by the BoM at 0700 and
was taken from our AAP News
service. At the time it was the most up to date weather that was on the
computer. The only problem with the
read was it had been raining heavy from around 8am on.

While I could look out the window and see that the read was wrong, by law I
have to read exactly what the BoM
say in their read. That is part of the charter radio stations undertake as
part of getting a broadcasting licence.

The station I work for, 2KY have AAP and our own mini weather station. There
are stations around Australia
that do not have AAP nor do they have a newsroom. Most country stations take
news from Capital City radio
and add their own news on at the end. A junior or some one usually writes
the news they add.

It is almost imposable for the BoM to predicted weather with 100% accuracy,
due to the nature of the beast.

If that statement is true then how can a new recruit to the broadcasting
industry that would like to be a �D.J.�s�
tell people what a storm cell is going to do.

The answer, and were I think Paul lost it is, for the BoM to make radar
images of storms FREE on the net for
not only radio stations but, all internet users. Radio stations will not pay
the $600 required per year to have
internet access to the BoM radar for storms that only effect Sydney one
month a year and cause major damage
once every couple.

The BoM get a very fair run, in my opinion at 2KY. Due to the fact that we
broadcast across NSW when a
notice on AAP comes in we broadcast it. Now, whether the reports are slowed
down, by AAP or the BoM, I do
not know, however, when we get them it�s usually to late.

I know my views may not make me very popular on this group as most of you
either have a good working
relationship with, or at least know someone that works for the BoM, but,
they are honest based on my
experiences.

I must say however, that these problems are based not on the good-hearted
people that work at the BoM but by
government involvement.

I feel what Paul was trying to point out was 110% correct. This is cost
lives and money and it has to stop.
The point he made about the Darwin cost and the North cost coast tells you a
story.

The media a gooses that have good voices and no brains, If the data comes
from the BoM they will broadcast it.
If it doesn�t, please don�t ask them to try to make it up, that would be
very painful.

I may be wrong. If so please write to me and tell me your view at
boyden at zeta.org.au

Phew! That was a load off my mind.

Paul, Thanks for posting such a thought provoking comment. I really enjoyed
thinking about it.


Grant Boyden
boyden at zeta.org.au

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
008

From: Blair Trewin [blair at met.Unimelb.EDU.AU]
Subject: aussie-weather: Wilsons Prom gust equ
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com (Aussie Weather)
Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1998 15:17:59 +1100 (EST)
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.4 PL23]
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
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As part of the consequences of the low which created so much
havoc in Bass Strait, at 0900 on 27 December Wilsons Promontory
recorded a mean wind of 145 km/h/78 knots. This equals the highest
in the digital record for this site (set at 1500 on 29 November 1996).

This may not quite be what it seems, as there had been no observation
in excess of 111 km/h prior to 1988, which makes me think that there
was a site or instrument change (or both).

As mentioned earlier, apparently gusts were being reported at the
time of 92 knots/170 km/h. Unfortunately the Prom doesn't report the
maximum gust for the day in near real-time, so we'll need to wait until
the December field book comes in (probably early February) to find out
the actual maximum gust.

I'll see what other information I can dig up on this storm, although
I was away for the period 24-29 December so I don't have much information
on how the models were behaving, for example.

Blair Trewin

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
009

From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1998 15:48:45 +1000
Subject: aussie-weather: Media Role in Severe Thunderstorm Information Distribution.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



Thanx Grant for the medias point of view, and no I am not offended by any
comment you make. I wish to make this comment though. Somewhere there is a
breakdown of communication. Maybe it si the BOM for sloppy distribution of
information, maybe it is the Media for "brainless" DJ's who read out
whatever is put in front of them. BUT that doesnt remove the necessity for
accurate, timely & informative warning systems to be introduced. We are
extremely lucky here in Australia that we dont suffer more deaths due to
severe weather activity (whether it be storm, Cyclonic lows washing sailors
away etc..........) What the problem is how the information is distributed.
Sure, the BOM has a major blame in that area:- They are now restricting
what access they give to the taxpayers for information. This is where we
need to start putting weight to free up this information.  Whilst I have
regard to economies of information (ie the cost of distributing that
information) anyone with a good client service background would know that
you would never let a FEE stand in the way of excellent client service -
this is what the BOM are doing. NOW BOM people dont get me wrong - its the
CEO & Govt ideas to make the BOM a "profit" driven organisation - but at
what costs? I would love to see what the Stats where for the Internt Open
Day back in November! I bet they are already fee bound (whereby the BOM can
use as proof that the fee system is going to work based on interest
showed)............unfortunately.

How the BOm can justify making a profit from that will always be beyond
me......I suppose the justification is "But it costs money to keep up with
technology! Oh well........

I still say that my experience shook me to the core, and who played what
role would fade into insignifance if people had died.....thats what we need
to remember. Education, Information NOT devastation!

Paul.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
010

From: Paul_Mossman at agd.nsw.gov.au
X-Lotus-Fromdomain: NSW_AG
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1998 15:56:57 +1000
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Media Role in Severe Thunderstorm Information
	 Distribution.
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com



I would really like to hear from Mark hardy on this issue, since he has
background in both BOM & private enterprise and as a star boy on the Austar
mag!

PS Remember the Weather Channel starts 4.1.199

Paul.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
011

X-Sender: bayns at nornet.nor.com.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Light Version 3.0.1 (32)
Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1998 15:13:42 +1000
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: steve baynham [bayns at nor.com.au]
Subject: aussie-weather: gold coast storm & media
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

hey all, 
have enjoyed the last few emails about the media and weather warnings. the
easiest and most effective way of mending that problem for the moment is
certainly the free access to the radar. 
anyway, judging by the lightning tracker, there is a storm forming to the
west of us. has just come up in the last 10 - 20 minutes. gee, it would be
nice if it comes east a bit more.
ciao
steve

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
012

From: "Terry Bishop" [dymprog at mpx.com.au]
To: "Aussie-weather" [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aussie-weather: No action at Orange.
Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1998 19:58:54 +1100
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Hi All,
		Firstly a G'day to Paul Mosman. I will be good to be able to keep up to
date with Taree weather. My parents live at Old Bar and my brother lives in
Taree.

	Boring at Orange at the present time. No cloud at all.

At the present time 7.50pm Temp 25 Bar 1025 & Steady Hum. 15.
 	All the action seems to be in North Qld in the Gulf area with the
depression causing major rains with the possibility of developing into a
cyclone. Have to watch it closely.


Terry

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
013

Subject: Re: aussie-weather: gold coast storm & media
Date: Wed, 30 Dec 98 20:02:40 +1000
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From: mildad [mildad at one.net.au]
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Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


This has been a hot topic on the mailing list.

Although I would love to have free radar, for the purpose of storm 
chasing, I cant see that it will in any way solve the problem of timely 
dissemination of advisories and warnings to the public. The BoM 
meteorologists are the experts at interpreting radar data etc and they're 
the only ones who really need it for that purpose ( mind you for my own 
selfish reasons I wish it was free). Also, using their website, I have 
found the Sydney BoM severe thunderstorm advisory/warning products to be 
very good so far as NSW is concerned. I strongly believe, and I know it's 
a generalisation, that the media are largely to blame. If I can access 
this info from my computer before the event why cant the media gain 
access to it?. I listen to radio frequently when storms are imminent or 
warnings are out but rarely have I heard the warnings I see on my 
computer broadcast as a top priority as the BoM instructs. I must say 
that some radio stations are much better than others though.

I think all this just stems from a general lack of community awareness. 
This is understandable since, although major centres such as Sydney an 
Brisbane are quite often affected by severe storms, even in those cities, 
most of the people wont have experienced anything like the devastation 
the relative few who did as seen on the evening news. I find it amazing 
how 'storm aware' my friends from Turramurra/Wahroonga on the north shore 
of Sydney are after the 1991 storm compared to those in other parts of 
Sydney who would never have experienced anything like that storm. Lets 
face it the odds of the most damaging part of such a damaging 
thunderstorm moving through your own backyard is not that great, probably 
even if you lived in Oklahoma City. For this reason it is hard to imagine 
( and not that i'd want to ) a severe thunderstorm event doing for 
thunderstorms what Cyclone Tracey did for cyclones and the natural hazard 
posed by severe thunderstorms will always be underestimated by most.

Perhaps if there were more members of the media, such as Grant, who had 
an interest in severe weather then dissemination of top priority weather 
information would not be such an issue.  

As a final comment, having said that the BoM advisory product for NSW is 
good, I think a warning service would be useful for the whole state or at 
least in recognised severe thunderstorm hotspots. Areas such as the 
northern tablelands, northwest slopes and northcoast are under so many 
severe storm advisories during the average storm season that they 
probably are taken with a grain of salt by people there. A warning 
product would be very useful here to alert people of a dangerous 
situation in their immediate vicinity so that people, except for crazy 
storm chasers [Paul:)], would have time to take cover. 

Regards

David

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
014

Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1998 19:40:39 +1100
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at corplink.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.04 [en] (Win95; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Queensland weather
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hey, Ben from Brisbane here

It looks like it could be a very interesting couple of days for Queensland,
there is an amplifying upper level trough in the west of the state that
should dump some heavy rain in western parts in the next couple of days ..
BOM seems to think it will weaken before it reaches the coast (We also have
SE'rs forecast for brisbane from tomorrow onwards :(  ) .. For those that
havn't already  .. check out the Notes on the Weather for Queensland
(http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDF00Q01.txt) .. now if that all
happens the way it's forecast too , then i'll be very surprised.

Was hoping for some storms in Brisbane today, but cloud cover killed any
chance of that, although there were some weak cells to the west thisafternoon
with a bit of thunder.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
015

Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1998 19:58:36 +1100
From: Ben Quinn [bodie at corplink.com.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.04 [en] (Win95; I)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Great Page
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hey Ben from Brisbane here 

I HIGHLY recomend you guys visit this page, it has some great tips on
forecasting severe weather/storms 

http://www.met.tamu.edu/class/Metr475/comap1.html#guidance 

in particular, this section: 

http://www.met.tamu.edu/class/Metr475/imglab14/outlook.gif 

Some realy great stuff on this page, if anyone has any questions about
anything on there dont hesitate to email me at Bodie at corplink.com.au or
better still you can go to www.nemas.net , and in the education section
there is a link called "ask nemas".

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
016

X-Sender: mbath at ozemail.com.au
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Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1998 21:14:56 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Michael Bath [mbath at ozemail.com.au]
Subject: aussie-weather: storm chase 30/12/98
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com


Date:     Wednesday 30/12/98
Location: Northern Rivers district of NSW
Chasers:  Michael Bath and John Graham
Distance: approx 375km

The Lifted Index had looked slightly promising for the eastern Northern
Tablelands for two days with -3 to -4 featuring on most of the forecast
data. However the 98122912z data was less promising with only and broad
area of -2 for most of the target forecast area for 98123003z & 06z (2-5pm
local) - Stanthorpe in QLD to Tenterfield in NSW. Lower LIs were forecast
for areas further north but this was too far to chase. Another problem that
was only apparent on the day was an extensive cloud band edging
east-south-eastwards into northern NSW.

I decided to chase as it looked to be the only likely day for any activity
in the remaining time I had left in Ballina, and John was looking forward
to his first chase.

We set out at 10.45am and headed west along the Bruxner Highway through
Lismore, Casino and then stopping at the lookout at Mallanganee (about
100km west of Ballina) at noon. Extensive patchy cirrostratus and small
clumps of weakish congestus were dominating the sky. It was quite hazy and
warm and a light E wind was blowing. It was hard to know what to do at this
stage: head to Tenterfield (the initial target area) another 1.25 hours to
the west or stay put and see if anything started to happen closer. We
stayed where we were as the lookout had shade and an excellent 360 degree
view, and activity on the tablelands looked less likely as the cirrostratus
thickened in that area. Also, it was sunny further south away from the
cloud band and congestus was occurring there too. By 1pm John spotted what
appeared to be cumulonimbus. From the compass and its apparent distance I
suggested that it may be close to the coast east of Grafton, about 150km
from where we were.

We headed back east to Casino (40km distance) as the best road south is
from there. We stopped for some lunch and contacted Jimmy for some data.
Fortunately he was home and on the net and provided us with valuable info
that shower activity was occurring NW of Coffs Harbour - further west of
where I had thought but better for intercepting. We headed south along the
Summerland Way towards Grafton, a 100km drive on a very good road with very
little traffic (except for one cop that nearly got us on a blind sweeping
crest - fortunately it was the moment we got the best view of the storm and
immediately braked for photos!).

By Whiporie half way along, we could see beautiful towering congestus and a
maturing storm cell. It's features became spectacular with a nice shearing
anvil and boiling cumulus on the NW flank. I thought the activity would
continue on the NW side, however it quickly bacame apparent that the next
updraft was forming on the N-NE side and it soon obscured the first cell
behind it. We reached Junction Hill (and tried to find the radar
installation for a look, but could not) as this cell matured to the SW of
Grafton. It seemed to have weakened a little at this stage (~3pm). 

I decided to continue towards the storm. Static had picked up on the radio
with lightning occurring every second or more. We drove through Grafton
then headed west on the Glen Innes road (Gwydir Hwy) before turning SW on
the Dalmorton/Buccarumbi road. Unfortunately this took us into mainly
forested areas and obscured our view though the road was heading exactly
the right direction. We briefly saw and photographed a lowered base on the
NW flank and very heavy preciptation in the valleys ahead. As we did not
know if this road was just forest all the way, we turned around and headed
back towards the Gwydir Hwy. The storm virtually collapsed at this time
(~3.45pm) so it was no great loss to not continue towards it (and further
from home).

A weak SE change along the coast was quickly delivering a horrible load of
stratocumulus so the chase was ended at this time and we headed back to
Ballina along the Pacific Hwy.

It would have been nice for more activity, but we did get to what appears
to be the only storm anywhere in the region (or state?) this day, so the
chase was successful in this regard. It also gave us the opportunity to
survey many roads and vantage points in the district from which future
chases will make use of.

Michael 
(on holidays in Ballina, NSW)

*==========================================================*
 Michael Bath  Oakhurst, Sydney   mbath at ozemail.com.au
                 Australian Severe Weather
       http://australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/
*==========================================================*

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017

Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1998 21:50:53 +1100 (EST)
From: Paul Graham [pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au]
To: Aussie Weather [aussie-weather at world.std.com]
Subject: aussie-weather: Sydney to Hobart Disaster...
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Hi everyone,
	I am surprised not much more has been said by people on this list
(apart from Laurier and Blair)  about the recent severe east coast low (I
presume that the media reports are correct since I haven't yet seen the
MSL charts - for it to be a true east coast low it must spend some of its
life tracking down the coast)  that claimed the lives of some competitors
in the Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race. This evening's SBS news headline told
of an inadequacy of the weather forecast for the race.  However, the
Sydney Morning Herald featured a report in which a spokesman for the
Bureau defended the warning of 55 Knot winds.  He said that the value of
55 Knots was just an average but the wind could gust up to 30% more than
this value.
	I remember, some time ago, reading a report on east coast lows
while at the Bureau.  In it, the author recommended that more attention be
given to their potential destrutiveness since they are in many ways
similar to tropical cyclones. Some even present a classic eye, associated
with TC's, on satellite pictures.  The main problem with forecasting east
coast lows is that they can develop very rapidly to reach maximum
intensity. 
	Although in this case it was mainly the Sydney to Hobart
competitors who were affected, it serves to highlight just how destructive
a mid-lattitude cyclone can be - in this case roughly equivalent to a C1 -
C2 tropical cyclone. Perhaps if we named such systems they would receive
more attention.  The problem is that they are usually not as long lived
and as long threatening to coastal regions as their tropical cousins for
which names are given. 
	 - Paul G.

----------------------------
Paul Graham 
paul at marconi.mpce.mq.edu.au 
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018

Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1998 22:14:49 +1100
From: Andrew Puddifer [andypudd at backmeup.net.au]
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.05 (Macintosh; I; PPC)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Sydney to Hobart Disaster...
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

  Hi Paul,

 Just briefly, could you explain why these east coast lows develop so
rapidly? Are they a year round occurence, or are they more seasonal?

 Regards, Andrew.