From: wbc at ozemail.com.au (Laurier Williams)
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Re: severe weather
Date: Fri, 20 Nov 1998 13:22:23 GMT
X-Mailer: Forte Agent 1.5/32.452
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
X-MIME-Autoconverted: from quoted-printable to 8bit by penman.es.mq.edu.au id AAA27856

On Fri, 20 Nov 98 22:06:39 +1000, mildad  wrote:

>
>Perhaps now, with what seems to be a growing network of spotters and 
>chasers in Australia the potential hazard which sv thunderstorms pose 
>here might be fully documented - Jimmy, Michael B, Michael T and Ira can 
>only cover so much territory. As James Chamber's suggests on his website, 
>it is only a matter of time before a violent tornado will strike a direct 
>hit on a major centre, but, at the moment, it does not seem that those 
>unfortunate people will be given much time to take cover.
>
An annual report on severe storms in NSW/ACT has just hit the web at 
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/nsw/inside/sevwx/stsrep98/stsrep98.shtml.
Worth reading, if only for the glowing reference to the usefulness of
storm spotters. Did you know there are around 1350 of them in NSW now.


Also, some interesting stats on the 1997/8 storm season


-- 
Laurier Williams
Australian Weather Links and News
http://www.ozemail.com.au/~wbc/

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: pdtobin at mail.act.apana.org.au
Date: Sat, 21 Nov 1998 10:26:33 +1100
X-Sender: pdtobin at mail.act.apana.org.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Version 1.4.4
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
Subject: aussie-weather: Canberra looks good for today?
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

We have a very good collection of castellanus, alto-cumulus and some newly
developing cumulus on the ranges to our west - this seems a very good sign
for later today. With a DP of around 8 degrees, however, moisture levels
could do with improving before I get too excited

I also notice some very good cu development along the ranges further north -
so there is some potential for at least part of SE NSW.

Patrick

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 21 Nov 1998 15:38:34 +0800
From: Michael Fewings 
Organization: Strike One Lightning Photos
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5b2 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather 
Subject: aussie-weather: Storms to the east of Perth
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi all,
There is a line of developing thundery showers to the East of Perth but
not worth a chase I am afraid. Likely to be a bit of a non event from
the look of things.
Oh on another point. Is there a quiet period over East weather wise,
because believe it or not, I am the first post today.
I should say something to get you all stirred up to post but I will
avoid the temptation :-)
I am sure everyone is really busy.
--
Michael Fewings
Strike One Lightning Photos
http://strikeone.com.au

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

X-Sender: disarm at mail.braenet.com.au
X-Mailer: Windows Eudora Pro Version 3.0 (32)
Date: Sat, 21 Nov 1998 18:53:42 +1100
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com
From: Matt Smith 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: Storms to the east of Perth
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

nope not busy,bored,bored,bored and well i have to go to work now.
nothing happened today, hoping for sun/mon/tues on the coast here..
Matt
>Hi all,
>There is a line of developing thundery showers to the East of Perth but
>not worth a chase I am afraid. Likely to be a bit of a non event from
>the look of things.
>Oh on another point. Is there a quiet period over East weather wise,
>because believe it or not, I am the first post today.
>I should say something to get you all stirred up to post but I will
>avoid the temptation :-)
>I am sure everyone is really busy.
>--
>Michael Fewings
>Strike One Lightning Photos
>http://strikeone.com.au

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 21 Nov 1998 19:05:47 +1100 (EST)
From: Paul Graham 
To: Aussie Weather 
Subject: aussie-weather: Bureau's Warning Service...
Reply-Receipt: pgraham1 at extro.ucc.su.oz.au
Reply-Read: pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Hi everyone,
	I have been reading some of the comments about Australia's severe
storm warning service and I have to say that I think the severe storm
warning service, in its current form, generally provides reliable and
timely warnings in advance of severe weather.  However, I think there
could be some significant improvements.  
Firstly, I think one of the biggest problems with the service is the
communication between the Bureau and the people affected.  The problem is
that not every radio and television station considers it their "top
prioriety" to broadcast the warnings, and even when they do, they may not
do so regularly enough or with timeliness.  The Internet and technologies
such as the Weatheralert data receiver help to solve this problem.
However, not everyone can afford these technologies.  A severe weather
warning service should be available to everyone, not just a few
individuals who can afford the receiving technology.  One possibility is
to set up a weather radio service like the "NOAA Weather Radio" in the
United States (actually run by the NWS) but able to be received on a car
radio (the US service I think requires a VHF receiver).  Another
possibility is to have roadside warning signs in areas frequently affected
by severe storms with information about what radio stations to listen to
for warning information.  Perhaps this could fit in with the idea of a
weather radio station?  I, myself, am keen to see a high frequency AM
transmission, (perhaps by way of amateur radio volunteers or the WIA) as a
secondary service for broadcasting the warnings.  That way, with
relatively cheap transmitter and receiver techonology and only a few
transmitter sites (compared with VHF FMor a MW AM transmission), the areas
most affected by severe weather can be covered.
	Secondly, I think the timescale on which warnigs are issued and
the type of warnings that are issued can be improved.  For example, it
seems that there are many occassions conducive to severe weather but no
advisories or warnings are issued until thunderstorms have developed or
damage reports have already been received.  The problem here is that
although it is important to reduce the number of false alarms (ie. a
warning is issued but nothing eventuates), it is also important to
maximise the number of people who are informed of the potential for severe
weather well in advance of it and so have time to prepare.  Given that
most thunderstorms occur during daylight hours when the supply of solar
radiation is greatest, and that most people work during these hours and so
may not always be available to listen for warnings, it would be a
significant improvement if information about severe weather potential were
made available early in the forecast period rather than waiting to see if
thunderstorms are developing and then issuing the warning.  For example,
based on morning radiosonde data and mesoscale analysis, the likliehood of
severe thunderstorm development for a region can be assessed and an
appropriate warning issued in the morning rather than once storms are
starting to develop in the afternoon.  This is where the type of warning
to be issued is important and where I see some further improvements could
be made.  
The current system in NSW is such that if there is the potential for
severe storms in a region, a "Severe Thunderstorm Advice" is issued
perhaps a few hours in advance giving the people affected an idea of what
to expect (eg. large hail and destructive wind).  If a major population
center is affected, then a "Severe Thunderstorm Warning" is issued (I
think only for Sydney at this stage).  However, I think it would be better
to develop a system where the current "Severe Thunderstorm Advice" is
issued earlier in the forecast period, long before storms have developed,
a "Severe Thunderstorm Watch" is issued later in the forecast period once
it can be determined where the storms are most likely to occur (perhaps
when convective activity is beginning to appear on radar), and a "Severe
Thunderstorm Warning" is issued once thunderstorms have been detected on
radar and they are likely to be severe.
Thirdly, with regards to tornado forecasting, although tornadoes are not
as common in Australia as the in US midwest, I think that a "Tornado
Watch" product could be included with a "Severe Thunderstorm Watch" for a
region if radiosonde data (eg. Helicity, CAPE, BRN etc...) indicates the
potential for tornadic storms to develop.  A "Tornado Warning" could be
included as part of a "Severe Thunderstorm Warning" if radar indicates the
possibility (eg. a "hook" or "bow" echo) or a funnel cloud is sighted.  
Outlined above are some changes which I think could make the severe storm
warning service more effective, especially with regards to communicating
the warnings.  In the end, no warning system can be perfect and people
should not expect it to be or blame weather forecasters for storm damage.  
What do people think about these ideas?
Cheers,
	Paul G.

----------------------------
Paul Graham
m3052695 at hardy.ocs.mq.edu.au
----------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 21 Nov 1998 16:21:35 +0800
From: Michael Fewings 
Organization: Strike One Lightning Photos
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.5b2 [en] (Win95; I)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Aussie Weather 
Subject: aussie-weather: convinced
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Paul and all,
Convinced me. Breaking up the forecast like they do with cyclones is a
great idea. Yellow, blue and red alerts. Or as you put it, advice, watch
and then warning is great.
Mike

--
Michael Fewings
Strike One Lightning Photos
http://strikeone.com.au

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date: Sat, 21 Nov 1998 19:38:44 +1100 (EST)
From: Paul Graham 
To: Aussie Weather 
Subject: aussie-weather: Possible Wording for a Severe Storm Advice...
Reply-Receipt: pgraham1 at extro.ucc.su.oz.au
Reply-Read: pgraham1 at mail.usyd.edu.au
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

An example of possible wording for an advisory according to what I
mentioned in my previous mail: 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ADVICE ISSUED AT (early morning)
FOR THE.... REGION(S).

People in the ... region(s) are advised that if thunderstorms develop in
the afternoon, some may become severe.  Please listen for updates. 

*******************
This advice is valid until ....


----------------------------
Paul Graham
m3052695 at hardy.ocs.mq.edu.au
----------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Ben Tichborne" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: Dull weather on east coast of South Island
Date: Sun, 22 Nov 1998 00:07:35 +1300
X-Msmail-Priority: Normal
X-Mailer: Microsoft Internet Mail 4.70.1161
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

 A weak southerly flow has been covering NZ's South Island lately - just
some light rain and chilly (but not wintry) daytime temperatures on the
east coast for the last few days. There has been a forecast of afternoon
(convective) showers inland today, but no mention of storms. I was
travelling from eastern Otago to Christchurch this afternoon, and it was
partly cloudy with sunny intervals. I could see darker clouds inland over
the ranges, but I couldn't see if there were any cb's.
 BTW the forecast maps for early this coming week seem to show some very
cold air from Antarctica possibly reaching the South Island.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Michael Thompson" 
To: 
Subject: aussie-weather: More info on Friday 13th Storm
Date: Sat, 21 Nov 1998 23:36:47 +1100
X-Msmail-Priority: Normal
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1
X-Mimeole: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.3110.3
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Do not know how accurate, but one of the girls at work said her parents new
car was hail dented at Taren Point. I don't know how big hail has to be to
dent cars ? would depend on individual car I suppose.


Michael Thompson
http://thunder.simplenet.com

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From: "Jimmy Deguara" 
To: 
Subject: Re: aussie-weather: More info on Friday 13th Storm
Date: Sat, 21 Nov 1998 23:44:45 +1100
X-Msmail-Priority: Normal
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.5
X-Mimeole: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.3110.3
Sender: aussie-weather-approval at world.std.com
Reply-To: aussie-weather at world.std.com

Modern cars can get damaged by 2cm hail or greater whereas my old 74 escort
got hail damaged by 5cm+ hail (minor dents).

That storm had hail alright. Have a look at photograph of the storm from my
classroom window.....

http://www.australiansevereweather.simplenet.com/photography/photos/1998/111
3jd01.jpg


Jimmy Deguara

-----Original Message-----
From: Michael Thompson 
To: aussie-weather at world.std.com 
Date: Saturday, November 21, 1998 11:33 PM
Subject: aussie-weather: More info on Friday 13th Storm


>Do not know how accurate, but one of the girls at work said her parents new
>car was hail dented at Taren Point. I don't know how big hail has to be to
>dent cars ? would depend on individual car I suppose.
>
>
>Michael Thompson
>http://thunder.simplenet.com