Author Topic: April 6, 2006 Forecasts & Discussion  (Read 4097 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline David C

  • Global Moderator
  • Barrel tornado F4
  • *
  • Posts: 643
  • Gender: Male
    • Thunderbolt Tours Storm Chasing Adventures
April 6, 2006 Forecasts & Discussion
« on: 06 April 2006, 07:37:35 AM »
Guys,

Yet another potentially significant dusk / night event appears to be evolving - well it is currently brewing severe thunderstorms in California!
Essentially appears to be yet another negative-tilt system with awesome destabilisation  - plot the 500MB charts ETA / GFS from 18Z through 3Z.

Too early to decide on a target as yet since NAM and GFS churn out quite different scenarios at the moment. In SE Nebraska, more strongly backed flow in close proximity to the progged  984mb surface low looks the goods, although deep layer shear is more favourable over Oklahoma. Could be anywhere from central eastern Oklahoma up into Nebraska / Iowa.

NWS Springfield MO are having a busy year....

DEEP AND VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE WARM SECTOR VERY CAPPED MUCH OF THE DAY
THURSDAY...HOWEVER GIVEN TREMENDOUS FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY MAKE EVEN THE STRONGEST OF CAPS QUITE BREAKABLE. HPC STANDARD
DEVIATIONS INDICATE THAT 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 2.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS TRULY
EXTRAORDINARY SINCE ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL USUALLY
CORRESPONDS WITH NEAR RECORD BREAKING LEVELS."


DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS ABSOLUTELY
FRIGHTENING WITH 0-1KM BACKGROUND SRH PROGGED TO INCREASE TO OVER
400 M2/S2 AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING.

Storm Chaser,
Thunderbolt Tours - USA & Australia Storm Chase Tours
www.thunderbolttours.com

Offline Jimmy Deguara

  • Australian and Tornado Alley storm chaser
  • Administrator
  • Wedge tornado F5
  • *
  • Posts: 2,218
  • Gender: Male
  • Storm Chaser since 1993, Tornado Alley 2001
    • Australia Severe Weather
Re: April 6, 2006 Forecasts & Discussion
« Reply #1 on: 06 April 2006, 11:38:28 AM »
David,

This current episode has been very active sicne the mini super-outbreak 3 weeks ago. I still find the drastic difference between the moisture supply, rapid destabilisation and the low level shear in standard conditions incredible let alon e these potent setups.

I'll check the models when I get a chance.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
-------------------------------------
Australian Severe Weather
www.australiasevereweather.com

Australian Thunderbolt Tours
www.thunderbolttours.com

Phone  0408 020468  (International :  61  2  408 020468)

Offline David C

  • Global Moderator
  • Barrel tornado F4
  • *
  • Posts: 643
  • Gender: Male
    • Thunderbolt Tours Storm Chasing Adventures
Re: April 6, 2006 Forecasts & Discussion
« Reply #2 on: 07 April 2006, 07:20:04 AM »
Well not sure about tomorrow - at this stage I dont think it looks THAT great for daytime tonradoes and chasing in general. The Oklahoma target looks shot since the dryline surges east rapidly between 18Z and 00Z, and that maybe too early with a strong cap in place, and surface winds quickly veer to the SW. Fast storm motions and more southerly flow further east coupled with progges very low LCLs suggest that these dryline storms will yield significant tornadoes in Arkansas / Missouri after dark.

The northern target, near the triple point in Nebraska, will see the surface flow strongly backed and even from the east during the afternoon. Deep layer shear is weaker and storm motions would be slower. Doesn't look ideal, although, how about staying overnight near Columbus and monitoring the location warm front during the day. Then slip south at night and watch some night time wedges over the Ozarks.
 
« Last Edit: 07 April 2006, 10:05:00 AM by David Croan »
Storm Chaser,
Thunderbolt Tours - USA & Australia Storm Chase Tours
www.thunderbolttours.com

Offline Brad Hannon

  • Thunderbolt Tours Group
  • Stove pipe F3
  • ******
  • Posts: 427
  • Gender: Male
  • Colorado Beast - 2nd June 2005
Re: April 6, 2006 Forecasts & Discussion
« Reply #3 on: 07 April 2006, 02:10:30 PM »
Haha night time wedges in the Ozarks certainly would have livened up the time we spent there last year :(
hmmm June 2nd......

Offline David C

  • Global Moderator
  • Barrel tornado F4
  • *
  • Posts: 643
  • Gender: Male
    • Thunderbolt Tours Storm Chasing Adventures
Re: April 6, 2006 Forecasts & Discussion
« Reply #4 on: 08 April 2006, 08:29:19 AM »
Well, this event was, as suspected, a far cry from other recent tornado outbreaks. That is not to say it was a crap day by any stretch. eg Check out this monster posted on StormTrack. This cell crosssed the border into Nebraska. Follow the storm report links at SPC and you will see a bunch or tornado reports which pretty much reveal the track of this supercell.

http://www.violentplains.com/Pictures/060406_002.JPG
Storm Chaser,
Thunderbolt Tours - USA & Australia Storm Chase Tours
www.thunderbolttours.com