Author Topic: 2008 US tornado season discussion  (Read 97848 times)

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Offline Macca

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Re: 2008 US tornado season discussion
« Reply #60 on: 04 May 2008, 06:30:31 AM »
As per my last post, we were in Fredonia in south eastern Kansas waiting for the cap to break.  We had driven from Wichita to El Dorado and then to Fredionia moving along with the faster than anticipated dryline during the early afternoon.  We finally decided that Fredonia was about where we wanted to be given that the dryline was expected to stall and then slowly retreat in the early evening hours.  In conjunction with the approaching upper level energy (cooling) and the convergence along the dryline, we figured that this area was the most likely to break the cap.  Within 20 minutes of that post to the forum from Fredonia, off she went.  About 40mi to our SW (pretty perfect given that storms were going to move NE initially) two storms blew up and went from nothing to 40,000ft and 45dbz reflectivities in 20 minutes - indicative of the instability.  We waited in Fredonia a little while to get an idea of which storm was going to be better and then we dropped south and west to intercept.  We only moved about 10mi S and 5mi west and we had a nice view of the base of the northern of the two cells which had a brief wall cloud which occluded but it looked a bit messy.  Both cells were severe warned at this stage (no tornado warnings yet).  Quite a few other chasers were in this area thou most were pretty sensible.  The storms were not racing along and the road network (albeit gravel) was quite good in this area, which is not quite flat but its *relatively* treeless. (Quite a few chasers don't like chasing east of I-35 due to the trees/hills but its not too bad in NE Oklahoma and SE Kansas (compared to SE'ern OK).

Anyway - back to the storms.  We played with this storm for a little while jogging slightly northwwards as it came closer to us (moving NE) and it took on some nice structure near Buxton with a nice vault region and some nice inflow bands but it never really looked like producing.  After about 45mins or so on this storm we dropped back to the S about 10mi (to near where we had been earlier) and started watching the next cell in the line (note the term "line").  It was looking somewhat linear at this stage but the base area to our SW was quite nice with a ragged wall cloud although the outflow from the cell we had left was now pushing out a but of a gust front which didn't help the situation.  We could see another cell building on the southern end of this line (about 15mi further SW) but we waited here and watched as this cell made a last ditch effort to produce as the wall cloud exhibited some nice rotation and upward scud motion and a few funnels (nothing substantial).  It was quite photogenic but it was quickly evident that it wasn't going to get the job done so we dropped S again to get onto the last cell in the line.

It was looking VERY nice with barber-pole like striations up the side of the updraft which was absolutely explosive.  We were about 8mi NE of this beast and it was coming right for us...sort of...it went ENE so was going to cut us off soonish but we will managed some great photos of the structure until the hail started...hehe.  It was only small 1-2cm with the odd 3cm stone in there.  We thought this would be the main show (we had about 1hr of daylight left) and it put out an ok wall cloud but the surge of outflow from the other storms we had been on seemed to have too much of an impact on it and it became linear (again...FRUSTRATING!).  It was still quite photogenic as the sun poked through the rain curtains and lit up the base area.  Eventually we moved east to get a better view of the whole line and we ended up only a few miles from Fredonia where we had been earlier in the day.  We were watching this line of storms which extended from the NE across to the SW with the tail end of the line of storms about 20mi to our SW.  It was somewhat photogenic here with some nice mammatus and more nice light on sunset. 

The sat image that James posted sure was nice but that flanking line was the downfall of our cell/s in that it just kept building too quickly back along that line so that one particular updraft did not sustain itself as a new one built downstream of the previous one. 

The lightning rate was not quite what we were hoping for though.  We eventually got a little bored and a nice core came down just west of Fredonia so we decided to go and sample some more hail (it had reports of golf balls).  Unfortunately this passed just N of town so we sat in the same carpark we had been in 5 hours before and pondered what to do - we couldn't get net access for some reason and inconveniently, the wx worx data dropped out (computer issues at our end).  We now had cold gusty outflow winds from the NE but the convergence along the line of storms wasn't too far off to our S with the line still stretching off to the near SW.  We finally got one of the cells to pass over us with some quarter sized hail (2.5cm) but this soon stopped.  Suddenly, the winds rapidly went easterly and then STRONG southerly winds.  Within seconds, the sirens in Fredonia went off...oops...hehe.  The local sherriff came racing around with his siren on (not sure what he was trying to achieve here) and we all just grabbed out video cameras and were videoing.  We didn't see anything but then the Doppler on Wheels (DOW) and a bunch of chasers took off east (following the storm).  Our data popped back up and we realised that the tail end of the line had just passed over us and had a 90mph shear marker on it as it went over us...oops...hehe. 

We packed out things and gave chase too - why not.  Sure it was dark but this storm was going to parallel our east road just to the N so it was safe.  We spent the next hour and a half or so watching various nice wall clouds just off to our N.  We didn't see any tornadoes but there were a few reports of funnel clouds and we saw some suspicious lowerings from it.  We eventually gave up on this cell at Moran about 60mi (100km) from Frediona as it became outflow dominant again. 

We headed west to Iola to get a room and some food before our planned lightning attack on the front which was now pushing in from western Kansas at a fast rate.  We had sucess in getting a hotel but little sucess in getting food so it was donuts, GIANT milky ways, chips, museli bars and juice/milk for dinner (the joys of chasing late into the night).  So after a great dinner we headed west to intercept the front and set up forlightning.  A slight miscalculation of the speed it was moving saw us have enough time for one 15 second exposure photo and BANG.  A wall of wind, rain and hail BLASTED is back into the car (which is a Toyota Highlander 4WD - see pics).  We sat here for about 5 mins as rainfall rates pushed into the 200+mm/h range and wind gusts easily of 100km/h and some smallish (2cm) hail.  The line had pushed out a great bow right onto us (which went on to smash Kansas City 150km to our ENE).  We got ahead of the line again just near Iola on our way back to the east but the outflow had pushed well ahead of the line by this stage so it was substantially weaker so we cruised back to Iola and called it a night at around 2:30am (although within 15mins of our arrival another strong cell had developed to our SW and moved over us giving some more torrential rain and some big BOOMs of thunder). 

It was a day of rollercoaster emotions with excitement in the morning with the upgrade to moderate risk, then the concern that the cap wouldn't break, then the realisation late afternoon that it was going to break and that it was going to be a good evening, and then the dissapointment in that we didn't bag a tube but overall it was a pretty good result for our first day of storm action.  Everything seemed to go really smoothly from our perspective - we were never rushed, the camera gear all seemed pretty organised, the navigating and wx worx (radar data, etc) systems all worked well.

Pics to follow (either tonight or tomorrow).

Macca & Crew

Offline Macca

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Re: 2008 US tornado season discussion
« Reply #61 on: 04 May 2008, 06:35:39 AM »
More from us...

We decided not to chase today even though there was a moderate risk.  Apart from the fact that it was going to be a 400mi drive to get to the target, the target was in south eastern Arkansas where the chase country leaves a lot to be desired (significant trees, hills, poor road network).  In addition, this area has received significant rainfall over the last few months and with the storms, flooding was a distinct possibility.  Storms will also be flying along (40+mph) so with all of those factors combined, we decided to save 1000mi of gas money (around $150) and cruise back west across to central Kansas and then south to central Oklahoma in preparation for the next bout of severe weather.  (Update - we are in Chickasha, OK).

(Incidentally, as I type and we are heading west and south across Kansas, the westerly winds behind this front are STRONG - we recorded a 48mph (80km/h) gust with sustained of 30-35mph.  Dust is flying everywhere - it reminds me of the Mallee in a strong north westerly! Oh - and there was bizzard warnings for north western Nebraska last night).

Looking at the models, this next bout of weather could kick off as early as Sunday although this is heavily dependant on how strongly this front pushes through Texas and how far.  If it weakens (which it may given the upper level support lifts out into the north eastern parts today), we could see return moisture flow starting up overnight tomorrow (Saturday) and throughout Sunday.  This would push 65-70f DP's (17-20C) into southern Texas by late SUnday afternoon, creating a chance of storms (very) roughly around the Austin area along the warm front as it lifts back to the N.  Another upper trough/low is currently sitting off the California coast and GFS and EC treat this quite differently over the next 4-day period. GFS basically holds it there until Day 4, whereas EC ejects this out over northern Mexicoon Day 2 (Sunday) meaning that by Monday it will have an incluence on Texas and give us some shear to play with (along with the instability).  This upper system appears to be quite slow moving and the models (and forecasters) are expecting at least 4 days of storms to result from this (better than the 1-day event we had yesterday). 

So at this stage, we are in central Oklahoma and we will probably drop southwards tomorrow into north central Texas (no idea where as yet but thinking somewhere around Wichita Falls to Seymour area) with the thought of dropping further S on Sunday if the moisture looks like making it back (I am slightly doubtful of this thou can't completely rule it out).  And if the moisture doesn't look like making it back by Sunday then we will use Sunday as another positioning day for Monday's action (which is more likely than not). 

More tomorrow evening when we work out what we are going to do re: Sunday/Monday.

Macca, Brad, Andrej & Marko.


EDIT:  70+ tornado reports from out east today.  Most of the tornado reports coming from Arkansas were quite early in the day 11am - 4pm.  For us to get near there or even into the path of the next bout (which is still ongoing now at 9:30pm) we would've had to have driven all night.


Offline Macca

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Re: 2008 US tornado season discussion
« Reply #62 on: 04 May 2008, 06:36:20 AM »
Just a few interesting things to note from our travels around the US so far this visit....

1.  Some of the people we have interacted with (mostly in restuarants if you can call them that) seem to have no comprehension or consideration of the world outside of their towns.  One person couldn't comprehend that someone didn't know what the "coke products" were (or that english/american may not be their primary language). 

2.  Overalls seem to be a popular form of attire.

3.  The term "cheers" is used in many circumstances across the world - well...at least in Australia and Slovenia (so far it has been used as a substitute for "bless you" (post sneeze), "excuse me" (post burp/fart - thou as has the term "oops"), in addition to the common Australian use when starting a round of beers as was the case on Tuesday, etc.).  The American's don't seem to use it much - when we say it (randomly to toll booth operators, fast food tellers, etc) they seem to have no idea what we mean - thou sometimes neither do we...

4.  Americans love sticking cars/vehicles into the ground (kinda similar to us having "the big everthing").  So far we have seen a truck standing on its nose, a paddock full of Chevy's half dug into the ground, a pickup (ute) backed into a mound of dirt up to its cabin.

5.  Ordering a side salad here means you get 4kg of lettuce, about 1 shaved tiny pieces of carrot and 1 piece of tomato. 

6.  It is safer to eat burgers and fries for every meal rather than trying to find something healthy (attempting this has already resulted in 2 bouts of minor food poisoning). 

Macca & Crew

Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Re: 2008 US tornado season discussion
« Reply #63 on: 04 May 2008, 08:57:42 AM »
Macca, Brad, Andrej and Marko,

Great you have not had to wait much for the first round of action. I look forward to seeing the pictures as there were some impressive structures from the few I have had any chance to see. There were some tornadoes as suggested by Harley and David previous to this post but it seems most were late in the day and night time.

Liked some of the sayings above. Look forward to the next round after the pictures are posted.

Beats marking exams and reports!

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
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Offline Macca

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Re: 2008 US tornado season discussion
« Reply #64 on: 04 May 2008, 10:26:54 AM »
As promised, a few pics from yesterday...

http://macca.bsch.au.com/gallery2/v/USA2008/010508/

Macca

(the other guys may post links to their stuff later)

Offline Mike

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Re: 2008 US tornado season discussion
« Reply #65 on: 04 May 2008, 12:59:29 PM »
Great photos Macca.  Fingers crossed for some big storms for you.  If you end up with the DOW convoy see if you can spot Reed Timmer, he'll certainly give you some great forecasts and info if you need it. 

Great observations there also! You should 'edmucate' the locals on what a 'salad' is actually contrived of!  Overalls and the straw hat with about 8 siblings tagging behind do you mean....?

So that means you'll be around 5 kilos heavier than when you left!!!! :)
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Offline Jimmy Deguara

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Re: 2008 US tornado season discussion
« Reply #66 on: 04 May 2008, 01:19:35 PM »
Macca et al,

Rather impressive updrafts and inflow structure! You could imagine the updrafts exploding upwards rapidly given those back sheared anvils. It always seems to amaze me.

Tell Andrej, are they short longs or long shorts! Also make sure Marko to keep his eyes on the clouds - not on the women haha. Keep him under control!

http://macca.bsch.au.com/gallery2/v/USA2008/010508/010508am12.JPG.html

Glad you guys are enjoying yourselves.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara
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Offline Mike

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Re: 2008 US tornado season discussion
« Reply #67 on: 05 May 2008, 08:03:12 AM »
Fantastic reports Macca.  I for one are green with envy!  An evil looking storm from the looks of those photos.

A chaser from Oklahoma sent me this picture yesterday from a tornado that he intercepted in the evening at Osage Oklahoma.  Reed saw this storm but was too far away to get close, but encountered another tornado during the night which could only be seen with lightning flashes highlighting the funnel. 
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Offline Harley Pearman

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Re: 2008 US tornado season discussion
« Reply #68 on: 05 May 2008, 09:34:07 AM »
USA Tornadoes 2/5/2008

Excellent reports and photos for those enjoying the chase.

I am happy with my effort and picked the right storm to analyse for a possible tornado. Yesterday 3/5/08 I was tracking a storm NE of Tupelo - Mississippi (I mention it in my previous post) (2/5/08 USA) that I could easily see was warned and had a tornado watch box around it.

That storm went on to produce one tornado in Alcorn County (Near the Prentis County line) along Highway 45 near the town of Hinkle. This is south of a much larger town called Corinth.

More importantly there were 55 tornado reports 2/5/08/. Most of them appear to be weak but a few substantial ones (Mostly late in the day) reported into the National Weather Service includes:-

a) 2 Tornadoes in and around Damascus in Van Buren County (Arkansas). One tornado had winds of between 217 and 265 km / h (Varied).

b) At 4.40 pm, a fatal tornado occurred in Pulaski County (Arkansas) near Hensley.

c) A tornado was reported near the towns of Earl, Turrell and Gilmore in Crittenden County (Arkansas).

d) A large tornado was reported at Mc Millans Corner in Chicott County.

e) At 8.20 pm (USA time), a large tornado was reported south of Parkin.

Many of the thunderstorms produced hail but it seems the largest reports of hail came from Union (Missouri), Bogalusa (Washington County in Louisiana) and Tickfaw (Also in Louisiana) where hail up to golf ball size occurred.

The main system that caused this episode of severe weather has degenerated mostly into a rain band and is over eastern United States and moving off the coast.

Harley Pearman

Offline Macca

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Re: 2008 US tornado season discussion
« Reply #69 on: 05 May 2008, 11:39:53 PM »
Hi all,

Just a quick one. We are in Midland (actually - Odessa) in SW Texas. There is a chance of marginally severe storms down this way this afternoon and we were relatively near by so decided to head down here. A weak shortwave upper trough is expected to pass over this region late today and a nice moisture plume is heading up the Rio Grande towards us on a 20-25knt LLJ from the SE. Atop this is a 30-35knt mid level jet from the WSW, giving some OK shear. Moisture is somewhat lacking but by later this afternoon we should see DP's in the low-mid 50's (not *that* bad considering we are at 1000m here).

Tomorrow and Tuesday (and Wednesday) are quite dependent on the timing of shortwave upper trough's kicking out of the developing cut off upper low off the California coast and also the amount of capping and convergence on the dryline. This means there could be storms anywhere from northern Kansas to southern Texas with no real focus point for these at this stage. Each day will only become apparent less than 24 hours out so we could have a few longish drives ahead of us. Either way, moisture will increase over the next 2-3 days across much of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas (and even up into Nebraska/Iowa) resulting in moderate instability at least. Wednesday is looking particularly interesting as the upper level cut off low ejects out over the plains, bringing with it cooler upper level temperatures and better shear.

Anyway - more from us later.

Macca & Crew

Offline Mike

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Re: 2008 US tornado season discussion
« Reply #70 on: 06 May 2008, 08:06:17 AM »
Video of Pawnee/Osage tornado shot by of Matt Chatelain, Daniel Betten, Matt Van Every, and Curtis McDonald with Reed.  Great structure shown on the video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tv8PciVvYEo

And this from May 2 of a very large tornado in Cross County, Arkansas just 22 miles northwest of Memphis, TN on May 2, 2008, shot by Don and Nicole Guiliano.  Plenty of lightning strikes around the funnel and debris seen also. A+

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrgJv30QtoA&eurl=http://extremetornadotours.com/
« Last Edit: 06 May 2008, 08:12:59 AM by Mike »
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Offline Macca

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Re: 2008 US tornado season discussion
« Reply #71 on: 06 May 2008, 09:07:34 AM »
Looking at the latest model runs, I think we'll play somewhere along the dryline between the bottom of the Texas panhandle and SW Kansas - possibly heading west into eastern New Mexico or SE'ern Colorado to where the dryline will be (big area I know but there are no real defining features tomorrow).  I think moisture return will be feeble north of SW Kansas with the really deep moisture still down in southern Texas.  Without a strong LLJ over the next 18 hours, I can't see the "good" moisture getting much farther N than the OK/KS border regions. 

Latest model runs are also kicking out some strong energy from the upper low off California slightly earlier than previous runs with Tuesday potentially shaping up quite nicely in the southern parts of the Texas panhandle (early to call at this stage so likely to refine/change this). 

As indicated in the Norman, OK forecast discussion, Wednesday will be dependent on how Tuesday's convection affects instabilty on Wednesday.  If Wednesday can recover enough, it also could be quite potent over eastern OK/KS. 

More in the morning.  We'll be looking for any boundaries tomorrow given the somewhat diffuse surface pattern.  There is a chance of overnight convection (tonight's) putting out a boundary of some sort and if this could interact with the dryline tomorrow it would increase the focus for severe storm development.

Macca & Crew
« Last Edit: 06 May 2008, 09:20:26 AM by Macca »

Offline Macca

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Re: 2008 US tornado season discussion
« Reply #72 on: 06 May 2008, 08:12:40 PM »
Hi all,

Just a quick one after perusing the models and finally getting an indication of something to hint towards a target for today.  Convection fired up this morning in the early hours over central Kansas.  This has put out an outflow boundary (OFB) which is pushing southwards across south western Kansas, heading for the OK panhandle.  And so are we.  Although the DP's may not be as nice as further S, its hard to ignore a boundary like that.  There should be severe storms and a few supercells around along the dryline through much of the western Tx panhandle up to south eastern Colorado but the best chance of one of these getting nice is going to be along that boundary in the 6-9pm timeframe as the LLJ strengthens across the OK panhandle.  Albeit a low chance, I would suspect that any chance of a tornado today would be along that boundary.

Macca & Crew - heading up north.

Offline Peter J

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Re: 2008 US tornado season discussion
« Reply #73 on: 07 May 2008, 03:03:41 PM »
Been watching a report by weather site Accuweather.com; and their meteorologists and experts believe that tuesday and wednesday USA time that a major outbreak of tornadoes are possible in the W-NW Texas, Kansas, Tennessee and Mississippi regionals. There is a possibility of H2-H3 size hail, and flash-flooding cannot be ruled out. The dryline is following these moist cells at the moment, causing instability to rise.

There are, as of 5.40 am (Pac E time - Dallas/Fort Worth time), some cells already forming just west of Dallas, that could spark into classic supercells later on today - and these cells could spawn several tornadoes. I will keep an eye on this event, if and when the work i have here permits me to.

Big Pete

PJJ

Offline Macca

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Re: 2008 US tornado season discussion
« Reply #74 on: 08 May 2008, 12:39:43 AM »
Hi all,

Quick post as things are likely to happen here fairly soon. We are in Brownfield, Tx. Nice area of convergence right over us here and its looking quite nice for severe storms/supercells over the next 3-5 hours. We are almost hoping convection doesn't initiate for another hour or so to maximise the instability.

Macca & Crew

EDIT:  Heading S to Seminole.
« Last Edit: 08 May 2008, 12:44:53 AM by Macca »