Topic: NSW and SE QLD Rain Event / Flash Flooding Coffs Harbour and Sunshine Coast :28 Mar - 7 Apr 2009

[Michael Bath]

Saw a few flashes of lightning last night from some low topped cells in the southerly stream. 12mm to 9am from fairly brief but heavy showers. A few coastal Northern Rivers sites have received 30-40mm to 9am 28 March 2009.

[Michael Thompson]

Saw a few flashes of lightning last night from some low topped cells in the southerly stream

Could also be an interesting week coming up for you Michael ! Rain wise that is.

[Antonio (stormboy)]

Latest report for northern rivers shows that in the next 6 days we could expect 20-40mm and 40-80mm of rain this morning we woke up to very heavy rain.

[Michael Bath]

Yeah, model output continues to forecast some significant falls along parts of the Southern QLD and Northern NSW coast over the next several days. Might be in for some flooding with such a large blocking high, possible coastal low and great upper level support (cold air aloft).

Today we've had some scattered heavy showers from large cumulus / weak cumulonimbus.

19mm here since 9am.

[Colin Maitland]

If the forecast models are right our pattern for next week from BOM is:

(Saturday is showers and very windy, the rest of the week:)

Forecast for Sunday
Showers increasing to rain. Moderate to fresh SE winds.         

Precis:       Showers increasing to rain         
City:           Min 20    Max 25
Bayside:      Min 19    Max 25

Monday         Rain periods. Windy.                   Min 21    Max 24
Tuesday         Rain easing                              Min 21    Max 26
Wednesday     Showers                                  Min 20    Max 25
Thursday         Showers                                 Min 19    Max 26
Friday             Showers                                 Min 19    Max 26



I say "if," because everyday the 7 day forecast changes, ( I was going to say, more than a babies nappy, but I wont). Last night it was 20 min, 27 max for next 7 days. 4.00am this morning we now have this. But in saying all that, last week in one of the threads I did say that last weekends paper quoted one  of the forecasters stating that we were in for some above average rain over the next few weeks. He was saying around the SEQ  but it looks like Northern NSW is in for a Buffeting. It is extremely windy today. Took the kids and wife to do some laps at Sandgate pool, we had a very heavy down pour that just about ripped your skin open.

Cape Moreton               83 KM/h
Double Island Point        96 KM/h
Brisbane Airport            46 KM/h
Redcliffe                      59 KM/h


 If the ants are anything to go by, they are working madly around the houses up here, climbing up the walls into the roofs. Usually a sign of a big wet.(You worry when they have life jackets on though).  Seriously,  I think as Michael Bath stated, we could see some flooding.

Col.

[Colin Maitland]

You might have to cancell SEQ for the rain event that was supposed to happen according to forcasts. I still believe we are in for heavy rain soon.
(It will totally change again late today or tomorrow.)

Today's 7 day new forcast.

A few showers, increasing tonight. Moderate to fresh and gusty SE winds.       


Precis:       Few showers
City:         Max 27
Bayside:      Max 26
UV Alert:     8:40 am to 3:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]

Monday        Showers, windy.                        Min 21    Max 27
Tuesday       Showers easing early.                  Min 21    Max 29
Wednesday     Shower or two.                         Min 20    Max 28
Thursday      Showers.                               Min 20    Max 27
Friday        Showers.                               Min 20    Max 27
Saturday      Showers.                               Min 20    Max 27

(Maybe to much reliance on the computer models)

[Michael Bath]

Had another 40mm here till 9am this morning and a couple of mm during the day but mostly fine. The Brisbane sounding this morning revealed some mid level warming which has decreased cloud depth today (compared to Saturday).  Despite that the models and forecasts are going for some significant totals the next few days - hard to say where exactly will get the best at this stage.

[Colin Maitland]

Starting to look like SEQ is in for some heavy falls that has been discussed earlier on this thread. Once again the 7 day outlook is differentiating from previous forecasts. I would not be surprised if the said "showers" forecasted, turn into rain periods.

We have had light rain since 4.30 am EST, and the radar is showing some moderate to heavy falls to come, from the north of Balina to Caboolture.

Col

[Michael Bath]

12.4mm to 9am 28/3
40.0mm to 9am 29/3
47.2mm to 9am 30/3 and constant rain since

Certainly the best rain event this year locally.

MB

[Antonio (stormboy)]

The bom radar obs show only 20mm for ballina and Lismore but I dare say there out of order because we have a rain gauge and we have emptied it a few time from it being filled overflowing stage top =120mm emptied about 3times woaw allotta rain man.

[Colin Maitland]

Just looking at the Obs from BOM. Lismore has had about 44 mm since 9am, and they are saying Balina about 26mm since 9am.
Of interest though is NSW is on flood watch.

The statement from BOM is :

 Flood Watch for NSW coastal rivers from the Queensland border to the Nambucca Valley
Issued at 9:31 AM on Monday the 30th of March 2009

 
Note: Flood Watch is a "heads up" for possible future flooding and is NOT a
Flood Warning [see note below].

A surface trough is deepening off the northern NSW coast which is expected to
produce around 50 to 100 millimetres of rain over the next 24 hours over the the
northern rivers and mid north coast.

This weather system has the potential to produce local and main river flooding
in the following catchments:

1. Tweed Valley - local and possibly some minor main river flooding
2. Richmond / Wilsons Valley - minor to moderate flooding
3. Brunswick Valley - minor to moderate flooding
4. Orara River - minor flooding
5. Coffs Creek - minor to moderate flooding
5. Bellinger Valley - moderate flooding
6. Nambucca Valley - minor flooding



Looks like more rain setting in as the week continues in SEQ. Looks like Northern NSW is in for a deluge over the next 24 hours, so keep safe. MB could be busy with SES.

Col

[James]

Just did a run up to Brisbane and back. Nice steady rain when I left home this morning which cleared pretty much as we hit the gold coast. Plenty of low cloud around with the odd shower or two around Brisbane . Heading back home now and it hasnt changed. Tried to cross Pearces Creek Hall Road at Pearces Creek however the water is up to about 1 metre deep over the floodway. Had to turn around and go Houghlahans creek road instead. The Creek out our back paddock has broken its banks. Certainly looking very interesting if this heavy rain can keep going.

[Colin Maitland]

As James said, in Brisbane we have had just some good showers, watching the radar, the rain band seem to be hitting North Strady, it just cant seem to make its way across the Bay, and then shoots up the coast line.  The high jet stream is just not letting us have the needed rain. As I said in the last post, it looks like Wednesday is the forecasted rain for SEQ/Brisbane.

Coolangatta has been the best for QLD having 24.8mm since 9 am.

[James]

Flood Warning now issued for Richmond/Wilson Rivers.

Latest 00z run of LAPS/MLAPS looks great for rain across the Northern Rivers/Mid North Coast and SE QLD. Around 100mm each day over most areas.

[Michael Bath]

71mm since 9am here to 5.30pm 30/3 with some more large cumulus to the east. Only one site has topped 100mm since 9am today on the NSW flood site: Dunoon on 102mm and Corndale up to 99mm. Those two sites are not far N-NE of Lismore.

Stormboy, please indicate the duration of rainfall measured. I know Ballina has had far less today and last night as my mother is there and records rainfall too.

regards, Michael