Severe Weather Discussion > Tropical Cyclones, Typhoons and Hurricanes Worldwide
Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi : from 30 January
Mathew Townsend:
Theres a new tropical low formed near Fiji.
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 27/0002 UTC 2011 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 930HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 24.9S 173.7E AT 262100 UTC. POSITION GOOD. CYCLONE MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS.
TC WILMA HAS MOVED OUT OF RSMC NADI AREA OF RESPONSIBILTY AND THERE
WOULD BE NO MORE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD09F CENTRE 1005HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5S
176.8W AT 262100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR/VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.
ORGANISATION HAS NOT INCREASED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.
SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
REGION, IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TD09F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
Simon McCombe:
Gale warning from RSMC Nadi. TC Yasi category 1 and intensifying. 30/01/2011
IDQ20080
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
GALE WARNING 086 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 30/0457 UTC 2011.
TROPICAL CYCLONE YASI CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4
SOUTH 169.9 EAST AT 300300 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 13.4S 169.9E at 300300 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT 7 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
45 KNOTS BY 301500 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 13.3S 167.7E AT 301500 UTC
AND NEAR 13.3S 165.2E AT 310300 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 085.
RE-ISSUED BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE.
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Ursula:
it looks like the system is organising itself, the latest sat has it S 12.5/ W 168 the moisture levels are interesting and might point to eventual landfall in a day
Paul D:
Current predictions seem to be pointing to a more severe system for TC Yasi over the coming days as it nears the Central/Nth QLD coast..
Latest Track map for TC Yasi from the Fiji Met (RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre)
Simon McCombe:
Hi everyone. I've been keeping a eye on this monster for the last few days,as quite a few other people are also. Currently at severe category 3 and BoM predicting to reach severe category 4,with the slight chance of reaching a 5 ! Current tracking has it to hit somewhere between Cooktown and Yeppoon either late wednesday or thursday,and the state government and emergency services are in the process of evacuating people from hospitals and aged care homes now and several island resorts are evacuating people today or tomorrow. Also urging people in low lying areas to evacuate by wednesday,because of storm surges. As with a storm of this size and intensifying,predicted wind speeds near the eye could be up to 200 kms per hour and a category 4 up to 250 kms per hour,with predicted rainfall around 1 metre !!! Included are some satellite images and track maps from the last couple of days,courtesy from and copyright of Fiji Meteorological Service (RSMC Nadi TCWC.)
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